♪♪♪ announcer: Funding for "The Hinckley Report" is made possible in part by the Cleone Peterson Eccles Endowment Fund.

Jason Perry: Tonight on "The Hinckley Report," a record-breaking campaign season comes to an end as candidates enter their final sprint to election day.

Early polling numbers reveal which direction voters are breaking and how high turnout may be.

And our experts weigh in on the impact of outside interests and money.

♪♪♪ CC BY ABERDEEN CAPTIONING 1-800-688-6621 WWW.ABERCAP.COM Jason: Good evening and welcome to "The Hinckley Report," I'm Jason Perry, director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics.

Covering the week we have Daniel Woodruff, reporter with KUTV; Kim Bojorquez, reporter with Axios Salt Lake City; and Chris Karpowitz, co-director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University.

So glad to have you.

I can't believe we're a couple of days away from the elections, the midterms are upon us, and so much is happening in politics locally, around the world.

Utah is on the national stage for so many reasons, and one of those is clearly this Senate race that we have going on right now with Senator Mike Lee, Evan McMullin.

I want to start with you, Daniel, for a second, because polling's all over the place on this one.

I'm so curious about what you're seeing in those polls going into the final days, and let's talk a little bit about why some may be closer than others.

Daniel Woodruff: Yeah, this week especially has been very interesting in the polls, because we have seen what I would call and what others are calling a tightening of the race in favor of Senator Mike Lee.

Earlier we saw some polls, particularly one that was done by Hill Research, which was for a pro-McMullin PAC, and it showed Evan McMullin leading Senator Mike Lee, and there was another one from another organization that showed a bit of a broader gap.

Now that is essentially the opposite.

Emerson had a poll out this week, Mike Lee ahead by 10 points and the poll from Hill Research that previously showed McMullin leading now has Senator Mike Lee up by one.

And so I think there's a realization on all besides that Senator Mike Lee has the wind at his back.

Even former Congressman Ben McAdams today--earlier this week told me that he feels that Senator Mike Lee definitely has, you know, sort of an advantage that maybe there wasn't before that Evan McMullin has been hurt by some of these outside spending, outside dollars, in terms of outside groups.

Jason: Kim, I want to get to some of that outside spending for a second there, but as a reporter who talks to so many people, how do they view these polls as they come forward?

What kind of impact does it actually have on their votes?

Kim Bojorquez: Yeah, you know, it kind of depends.

You know, you will see ads from Club for Growth, this Conservative PAC, and both sides are having these aggressive ads come out as November 8th election comes closer.

And I think what Daniel said is that you are seeing the race tightening and going towards Lee, because I think it shows that these these ads are being effective.

Jason: That's interesting, Chris, I want to talk about your experience with all these elections and this great political science view you have.

People are asked do these negative ads really have some kind of impact?

And what's interesting is almost everyone we talked to said I think they influenced everyone but not me.

Chris Karpowitz: Right, negative ads work.

That's why--that's why candidates and outside groups run them.

They can certainly create an impression of candidates that-- that sticks.

Negative information tends to be more memorable than positive information.

And so, that's one of the reasons why we see those ads.

But I think the other thing that is important here is the larger context for what's happening.

This is--it's not surprising, I think, that the race may be moving a little bit in Mike Lee's direction, because this is a hard environment for non-Republicans to run, I would say.

And Evan McMullin is an Independent, he's not running as a Democrat, but when the president's party--the president's party in off year elections tends not to do as well, and that can just make it more difficult for challengers who are not of the opposition party.

Jason: Chris, since you kind of mentioned this about sort of not a traditional Republican-Democrat, talk about the potential outcomes here, but what it might mean if Evan McMullin comes very close or wins.

What does that say about Utah?

And maybe put that in the national narrative also.

Chris: Well, if he were to win, it would be an earthquake.

I mean, it would be a gigantic moment in the history of the senate and in Utah's political history as well.

To have someone who's not formally affiliated with either party and who says he's not going to caucus with either party, that would be a big deal and would--could mean that he is sort of a kingmaker in terms of determining which party actually controls in terms of who he votes for for majority leader.

Jason: And of course that analysis, Daniel, kind of plays out depending on who does get that majority, whether that's the magic vote that everyone wants or not.

Talk about why Utah in this particular race is on the national scene, something that everyone's watching.

Daniel: Well, it's creeping onto the national scene, or I should say it's crept onto.

I think for a while there, there wasn't a ton of attention paid, and in the recent weeks people have started looking at this race, seeing some of those polls that made he showed it a bit tighter and saying, wow, this may not be a Nevada, it may not be a Pennsylvania, it may not be an Arizona, but Utah all of a sudden has this very unusually competitive race that we typically don't see.

I actually also was interested in the point about who Evan McMullin would caucus with.

I know he said he wouldn't caucus with either party.

I was curious if his mind had changed.

Reached out to his campaign yesterday, his mind hasn't changed.

He says he's not going to caucus with either party, which could be incredibly interesting, as Chris said, you know, if he got there, what that would look like.

Jason: So, Kim, because it has been close, and because the balance of power, they say, is kind of on the line here, it's brought a lot of outside interest in terms of money.

We talked about this being a record-breaking Senate race.

Both candidates over $15 million together spent, outside interests over $15 million dollars on top of that, to what effect?

Kim: You know, I think this, you know, the reason why there's so much money flowing into this race, it is set to be one of the most expensive races in history and in state history.

And I think it's because the stakes are so high.

The balance of Congress is on people's minds, and it could really have these ripple effects in Washington D.C. Jason: So I'm really curious what you have to say about the impact here, Chris.

This has not been the most positive campaign.

Chris: No it has not.

Jason: And I'm kind of curious to what extent do you kind of attribute the negative part of this to this outside money that basically get to say mostly whatever they want about this race?

Chris: I think it has a lot to do with outside spending.

And often, I mean, the challenge of outside spending for candidates is that they lose control over some aspects of the message, but sometimes candidates are fine with this outside spending because the outside groups can say things that the candidates don't want to say.

And often that means they're taking a more negative tone than the candidates would would want to take themselves.

That allow--it frees up the candidate to only say positive things or to present themselves in the way that they want to present themselves and let the dirty work be done by these outside groups.

Jason: Yeah, so Daniel, I have to ask, because I think it's such a great point Chris raises right there, too, what if there was no outside money, all right?

What if it wasn't there?

What kind of race would this be you think?

Daniel: Well, that debate will take longer than the 20 minutes we've got left, but I mean the outside money definitely plays a role, right?

And it's interesting is I've talked to voters, especially undecided voters, they are put off by the outside spending in the negative way.

One particular voter told me she often doesn't vote if it feels too negative.

That kind of surprised me, right?

I think it would be a very different race if we didn't have the outside spending.

I also do want to point out, though, one of the outside ads from Club for Growth features former Governor Jon Huntsman, and that is a very positive ad for Mike Lee.

He's smiling about Mike Lee, he doesn't mention Evan McMullin to my knowledge, he only talks about why Mike Lee.

That was an interesting sort of a different outside spending ad, let's focus on the positive for Mike Lee.

And people I've talked to this week have said they really feel that was a momentum booster for Lee that may have contributed to some of the tightening in this race, including the Republican Party chair who said that endorsement was critical for Mike Lee to get and that it's really helped.

Chris: I think that's a really important point, because Jon Huntsman has a more moderate reputation than Mike Lee does.

Mike Lee is seen as very conservative, and so having a moderate voice speak up for Mike Lee I think is an important moment in this campaign.

More broadly though, Mike Lee is not going to win by the 40 points that he won by last time around.

And so I think that does suggest that there is a desire for more centrist candidates, that centrist candidates can be competitive in the state of Utah.

And I think that's something to watch going forward even if Evan McMullin doesn't pull it off this time.

Jason: Interesting, Kim, I just love to get a comment from you about these endorsements, because that was a big one for Senator Mike Lee to have Governor Jon Huntsman.

Evan McMullin had a pretty big endorsement from 200-plus national security leaders, former members of the military too.

When you were interviewing people about these endorsements--and I think they are trying to get to these maybe some undecideds or some of these moderates--how much of an impact are these endorsements having in your conversations?

Kim: Yeah, you know, I think something that really stood out to voters is Mike Pence's endorsement of Senator Mike Lee.

You know, it's been pretty notable that Mike Lee hasn't really touted his endorsement of former President Donald Trump as he has with Mike Pence.

And I think that this Mike Pence endorsement--who I should note is potentially running for the presidential election in 2024-- you know, I think he might appeal to moderate voters or voters who are a bit disillusioned with Trump.

Jason: Mm-hmm, we've seen Mike Pence come here before asking Republicans to come home.

I guess a little bit of his effort on this one as well.

We talked a little about these these races, you know, this is the competitive one.

Most of our other races are not so competitive.

You know, you look at our congressional districts for example, and we have a student that has submitted a question just this week to get to that very issue.

So, Daniel, I want you watch this one really close.

This is Ann Lopez has submitted a question on this very issue.

Ann Lopez: Hi, my name is Ann, I am a master student studying public administration.

My question is apart from the McMullin-Lee Senate race, Utah's midterm elections seem to lack any real competition.

We know that this usually leads to complacency on the part of the representative and a lack of accountability to their constituents.

So why is this happening?

Why are Utah's races so uncompetitive, and how can we change this for the future?

Thank you.

Jason: Okay, Daniel.

Daniel: I would agree, right?

I was saying earlier I see a lot of ads for Lee-McMullin.

I do not see ads for Representative John Curtis, Blake Mooreá*, Burgess Owens, or Chris Stewart.

So I think that's spot on.

These other races are very uncompetitive.

I think you really look at redistricting, right?

When the redistricting process, which is the redrawing of political boundaries, when that took place, the fourth district in particular was made safer for Republicans.

The other districts were already pretty safe for Republicans, and so I think that's a large factor.

I would also say sometimes it's the caliber of candidates, right?

Some look at that and say I don't want to run, and so they put a candidate up that may not be able to compete effectively with an incumbent with such a huge war chest of money or something like that.

So I think there's a lot of factors, but I don't think you can overlook redistricting as one of the main ones.

Jason: Chris, talk about how that has worked traditionally, at least for the last, you know, several election cycles.

That fourth congressional district was the one competitive race that we had, not so much now.

Chris: And I think Daniel's exactly right.

This has to do with redistricting.

The legislature aimed to make that district a little safer for Republicans, and it seems to have worked.

And I think Ann's question is so perceptive and is exactly right, because I think the consequence of not having competitive elections, not having elections in which the incumbent feel some pressure from the voters in some way or from an opponent in some way leads to a lack of accountability.

And so I think long term we're going to have these districts for another--for the next decade, and so I think this is something to watch in the state of Utah.

To what extent, again, are those moderate voices being lost?

Because all the competition is in the Republican primary, and there's pressure to move farther to the right than is consistent with sort of the median voter in the state of Utah.

It also raises the question, I think, of what we should do in a state where a quarter of the voters--who are Democrats-- are not getting any representation whatsoever.

Jason: Well, let's talk that for just a moment, too, Kim, because we're looking across the country to see what might happen in this midterm election.

The national people who follow these things closely give Republicans a 53% chance of gaining the majority in the Senate and an 85% chance of winning in the House.

Put that in context with the-- with what Chris has just said.

Kim: Yeah, I mean to point out to Chris's, you know, saying that these districts are not competitive.

I think you really see that in congressional district four where Representative Burgess Owens has repeatedly avoided doing these public debates with media presence.

And I think he doesn't feel that pressure to debate.

He did have one last week, but you know, from what I believe, you know, media wasn't allowed to go in, you know, they weren't really--he avoided a question from the Salt Lake Tribune.

And I think it really goes to show that he is a shoe-in, he is the front runner of this race and, he doesn't feel the need to be held accountable.

Jason: I want to talk about how we are participating as Utahns.

Mail-in balloting seems to be something that the state has fully embraced.

And Kim, you wrote a really great article about this very principle here explaining to us why Utahns are all in when it comes to mail-in balloting.

Kim: Well, when the pandemic occurred, these multiple states rushed to figure out how to get voters to participate during a pandemic while socially distancing.

And a lot of states pivoted to vote by mail elections very quickly.

Utah didn't really have that problem, because about a decade ago a lawmaker enacted legislation to allow counties to opt into mail-in elections.

By 2020 all counties in the state had partici--had opted in for mail-in elections.

And because we have--we've had a lot of time to kind of figure out the issues with vote by mail.

And I think because of that, Utahns just have this trust in their mail-in voting and their elections just because it's-- they've done it before, and it also gained popularity in Utah before it became this partisan issue.

So Jason: Daniel, as a partisan issue, it's interesting because some parties talk a lot of this election cycle about, you know, they're deniers in the last election.

People talking about election fraud.

How does this play in Utah?

Because you know, this is a red state.

That's not the message here.

It really isn't, you're not hearing it from the major candidates typically.

And I think, you know, that goes to some of the interesting nature of, you know, you look at the senate race where as Chris said, there's a desire for more centrist candidates, I think in some respect.

And so I think that message just doesn't play here like it's going to play somewhere else.

I've been, you know, kind of watching, hey, who brings that up, who doesn't?

And it really isn't coming up.

In fact Senator Mike Lee, who has been criticized for his role after the election in 2020, he put out a joint op-ed with Lieutenant Governor Deidre Henderson saying the elections are safe, the elections are secure, and I can't drive down I-15 without every third billboard telling me that the elections are secure.

And so for a red state, that's very unusual, and I think that goes to show both where Utah is and perhaps an awareness on the part of the politicians that that message just doesn't sink as well as maybe other states.

Jason: Chris, how is this impacting turnout?

Chris: Well, vote by mail facilitates turnout.

One of the nice things about it is it's cost-effective, and it's convenient for voters.

And so to the extent that we have vote by mail in the state of Utah as we do, that should boost our turnout at least to some extent.

Now, I also just want to say that the--we shouldn't undervalue the trust Utahns have in elections in Utah.

As we see across the nation, this is not something that can be taken for granted in every state.

And so the fact that a very red state can have confidence in its election outcomes is something that's really important and something that Utahns should value and should foster going forward.

Jason: Mm-hmm, Utah's setting the way like we often do.

In terms of turnout so far, Kim, we've been watching very closely the ballots that are coming in.

As of yesterday, four counties in the state are already over 40% in terms of their turnout, but right now in Salt Lake County, the votes have been turned in already 15.8%, Utah County 18.5%.

Those two counties are gonna have an impact depending on how they participate.

Kim: Yeah, and, you know, I think one of the reasons why you're not seeing these higher numbers is because people generally don't participate in midterm elections like they do in presidential elections.

But I think when it comes to these competitive races, like the matchup between Lee and McMullin, I think turnout really matters.

Daniel: Can I add too?

We don't have any of those real hot button issues like we had in 2018.

Remember medical marijuana was on the ballot back then and some others, and we have a couple initiatives on the ballot, I know, letting the legislature, you know, call themselves into special session to spend more money, but that doesn't get voters out like medical marijuana does.

So I think that probably is an impact as well.

Jason: It's interesting, that constitutional amendment A you know, we don't even see a for or againstá* on that one.

It's just something that has appeared on the ballot, which is interesting as well.

So, Chris, all this leads to this interesting question.

It's it's a national narrative but also here, and it was interesting, it was sort of a stump speech from President Biden this week had some interesting flavor of it that I want to discuss a little bit because we're hearing it in speeches on both sides of the aisle, and I want to get your comment on this.

This is from President Biden this week.

Joe Biden: There's an alarming rise in the number of our people in this country condoning political violence or simply remaining silent, because silence is complicity.

The disturbing rise of voter intimidation.

In our bones we know democracy at risk--is at risk, but we also know this, it's within our power, each and every one of us, to preserve our democracy.

Jason: So Chris, some comments about that, 'cause I will tell you looking back, it's not historically that often I hear so many people saying democracy itself is at risk.

Chris: Yeah, it's a striking closing argument for a president of the United States to be making, that our very democracy is in peril, and I think that has something to do with the trust in institutions that we were just talking about, right?

So that there are some people around the country who are-- who do not trust the outcome of elections in in their localities.

That's again, something that I think is incredibly important here in Utah, but we also see a rise in political violence.

Some of this is related to the kind of overheated rhetoric that we hear.

We were talking earlier about outside groups.

Some of the ads that we've seen from outside groups here in Utah are really over the top.

I mean, they make outlandish claims about either side that can stoke fear and stoke anger in ways that are problematic.

And so to the extent that calmer voices can prevail, that's a good thing for democracy, and I think this also has to do, though, with competitive elections in which moderate candidates have a chance, and that we're not just choosing between extremes who make over the top accusations about either side.

Jason: I want to ask you, Daniel, about this, to put this in context as well.

So NBC did a poll recently that I thought was interesting.

It shows both sides of the aisle, it was 81% of Democrats and 79% of Republicans--that's pretty even--they both say that the political opposition, their opponents pose a threat that if not stopped, will destroy America.

Both sides are saying this.

Daniel: Which is why I think when you say democracy is at risk, that means something to a Democrat that is very different to a Republican, right?

To the Democrat it is the democracy is at risk because of things like January 6th, because of election denialism.

To Republicans it means the opposite.

And you know, it's an interesting closing argument, too, because a lot of presidents would talk about the economy, which is struggling right now, inflation is high.

And so I think for President Biden looking at the attack on Speaker Pelosi's husband that was recent, coming out of things like that, it's kind of a natural argument to make and to try to appeal, perhaps, to that middle--I know you've called it the movable middle--that may listen to that and resonate with that and say, you know, there are, perhaps, issues out there that I need to vote on based on the state of our democracy.

Jason: The people you're talking to, how do they view it through their lens here, and what seems to be resonating with them?

Maybe a little bit of a solution?

Kim: You know, well, I had a conversation with Lieutenant Deidre Henderson--Lieutenant Governor Deidre Henderson-- a few weeks ago, and she was telling me that since 2020 county clerks have either resigned or decided to not run for re-election, and she has cited that it's because it's a hard job right now.

County clerks right now are dealing with harassment, with threats, some of them are dealing with visits to their home and voter intimidation, and what's problematic about that is because if you have these county clerks who are very experienced and then they seek to not seek re-election, then you get other other candidates who might be less experienced or who might push these unsubstantiated conspiracies of voter fraud.

Jason: Mm-hmm, Chris, what drives people to their votes?

I mean, you're a political scientist.

What ultimately gets there?

We've seen some violence, we've seen a lot happening in terms of the rhetoric, what drives them ultimately?

Chris: Well, certainly partisan affiliation, partisan commitments matter a lot for people's vote choices.

The state of the economy is going to matter a lot, as Daniel said.

We're facing high levels of inflation, that's not good for the party in power, and that's going to shape the election.

In terms of of what drives people out to vote and gets them to participate, well, part of it is a sense that their participation makes a difference, that their vote might matter.

And that's another reason why uncompetitive elections are not great for democracy and why a very competitive Senate election is an important thing in Utah.

Jason: Do people you're interviewing think their vote matters?

Daniel: I think so.

I think, you know, especially in the Senate race.

I think there's that recognition.

I haven't done a ton on the congressional ones, but I think generally people feel like this year more than others they can play a role.

Jason: And the last part on this Kim, too, because Chris talked about partisan affiliation, your political party affiliation impacts a lot of how you turn out, just your last thoughts on this Senate race, because it's not exactly the same analysis.

Kim: Yeah, I mean, I think this is one of the first races in many years where some moderate voters or Democratic voters really feel like they have a chance to sway the balance of power in the Senate with this McMullin and Lee race.

Jason: Mm-hmm, one last thing I want to talk about, too, is because our local politics are bleeding into this.

When it comes to our state approach to abortion--this is our last 20 seconds on this, Daniel--and the economy, are those gonna be bigger drivers?

Daniel: I think the economy is a huge driver.

I think that's probably the biggest one right now, based on the people I've spoken with and what they're saying, they think about the economy.

Jason: This is so interesting.

These are the issues we'll watch, and we'll talk to people and see what did motivate them ultimately.

Thank you for your insights this evening.

And thank you for watching "The Hinckley Report."

This show is also available as a podcast on PBS.Utah.org/HinckleyReport or wherever you get your podcasts.

Thank you for being with us, we'll see you next week.

♪♪♪