GEOFF BENNETT: Signs point to a COVID-19 summer surge once again for the fourth consecutive year.

Overall infections remain much lower compared to the past, but cases started increasing last month.

John Yang looks at the growing concerns.

JOHN YANG: Geoff, after months of decline, numbers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that reported cases and hospitalizations are on the rise, slowly, to be sure, but still rising.

For the week ending July 22, COVID-19 hospital admissions were up by 12 percent from the week before and emergency department visits up by 17 percent.

The CDC says COVID deaths are the lowest they have been since the government started keeping track, but, still, between 300 and 400 Americans are dying each week.

Katelyn Jetelina is an epidemiologist at the University of Texas.

She writes the popular Substack column Your Local Epidemiologist.

So, Katelyn, what -- when you hear those numbers, what do they tell you?

What are those - - what does this little spike tell you?

KATELYN JETELINA, University of Texas Health Science Center: Well, it tells me, well, here we are yet again.

We find ourselves in the middle of this COVID-19 summer wave.

And I don't think this should be very surprising, because we have seen a summer wave the past three years, particularly in the South, due to a combination of three things.

One, the virus continues to mutate about two times faster than the flu.

Two, people are moving inside because of the heat.

And, three, the susceptibility pool is growing.

Our protection is waning over time.

I will say, though, that there's two pieces of good news, though.

One is that, like you said, John, although metrics are increasing, they're starting from very low absolute levels, which is certainly helpful for our hospital systems.

And then, two, some signs today actually indicated that acceleration is slowing down.

So we may be starting to see our peak here soon.

JOHN YANG: Should people be concerned, or are there particular types of people who should be concerned?

KATELYN JETELINA: Yes, I think it depends on how you define concern.

I mean, this is definitely causing disruptions in family vacations, which is not fun.

It's also not fun to take care of a sick toddler or getting sick yourself for a week.

But those most at risk right now for severe disease remain to be older people and immunocompromised, particularly those that haven't had their spring booster, or haven't been infected in more than six months.

JOHN YANG: Katelyn, the White House is eliminated the job of COVID coordinator, CDC no longer tracking positive tests, a lot of state health officials no longer tracking that.

Has this created a sense that, well, it's all over?

KATELYN JETELINA: Well, CDC is still tracking some metrics.

And I do agree that we are in a very different place in 2023, compared to, for example, 2020.

And I understand the mind-set for, man, thank goodness that's done.

But we do the public a disservice by rolling over, saying, let's move on, because the truth is, the virus doesn't care.

COVID is obviously still here.

It's going to be with us.

It's going to cause disruptions.

And it's going to cause a lot of people to lose their lives.

And we can prevent this.

And we prevent that by removing the gaps for a lot of room for improvement.

For example, only one in four nursing home residents get Paxlovid during a COVID-19 infection.

And this is absolutely unacceptable.

So we still have a lot of work to do.

And public health cannot do it without engaging the public.

JOHN YANG: You talk about that there's still work to be done.

You say that protection is waning.

Is this sort of lack of concern or feeling that it's over contributing to the low rate of people getting boosters?

I mean, when the last booster came out, only 17 percent of us got a booster shot.

KATELYN JETELINA: Yes, I'm very nervous about booster rates specifically going into fall, and specifically among those over 65.

Last fall, 40 percent of those over 65 got a COVID-19 vaccine.

And if we compare this to flu, 75 percent of the same population got a flu vaccine.

And that's a disappointing difference, given COVID-19 is more severe than the flu for this population.

For this fall, I think we still have a lot of unanswered questions, though.

Like, we know we're getting an updated vaccine formula, but we still don't know who's eligible yet.

The CDC is going to decide that in the next month.

So, to be determined who is eligible this fall.

But I hope everyone who is gets a vaccine.

JOHN YANG: I want to ask you, quickly because there's so many -- so much concern among people out there about specific advice and tips you might have, I'm just going to name a topic and a quick answer.

Masks.

KATELYN JETELINA: Yes, you should wear -- be wearing masks in crowded areas, especially during a surge.

JOHN YANG: But what about at home and when you're walking on the street?

KATELYN JETELINA: So, certainly, at home, it works, if you want to reduce household transmission.

I wouldn't wear a mask when walking your dog.

Just be distant of other people.

JOHN YANG: Home testing.

KATELYN JETELINA: At-home antigen tests are an incredibly valuable tool.

Keep in mind, though, that there's a lot of false positives in the beginning of symptoms.

So be sure to retest if you get a negative within 48 hours.

JOHN YANG: And if you do get a positive, how long should you isolate?

KATELYN JETELINA: According to CDC, it's five days, but a lot of people are still infectious, which means please wear a mask if you leave isolation at five days.

The best practice is to test to exit.

Whenever you get a negative on the antigen test, you're not contagious anymore, and you're good to go.

JOHN YANG: Katelyn Jetelina, Your Local Epidemiologist, thank you very much.

KATELYN JETELINA: Thank you.