firefighters are still working to control a fire that broke out at a recycling facility in Camden County on Sunday flames engulfed the 15 acre mulchard and high winds expanded the blaze to a field outside the facility that led to the voluntary evacuation of 50 homes in the area along with shelter in place orders due to all the smoke now officials say the cause of the fire is still under investigation and crews will remain on the scene for another 48 hours it's one of two major fires to erupt in South Jersey in a week with the dry windy weather conditions contributing to both the State Forest Fire Service now has the Jones Road wildfire in Ocean County 75% contained after spreading through more than 15,000 acres officials say it could end up being the largest wildfire in 20 years here and we're still far from the end of wildfire season for more on that I'm joined by New Jersey State climatologist Dave Robinson dave thanks for giving us some of your time um how have the recent weather patterns obviously I'm thinking about these really blustery winds that we've had the low humidity ultimately just dry contributed to you know both the intensity but also the spread of the Jones Road fire and now we have this you know new fire that folks are contending with it's been a nasty recipe um something we commonly see at this time of the year when you're you still don't have that humidity that you see during the summer so the air can be dry we're still in a windy time of the year and this year in particular we've had a considerable amount of windy days uh and then you just have to go a week or two without any precipitation to speak of and you're in a very vulnerable position uh the month started out on the wet side and just like February and March we're going to come in pretty close to normal for precipitation for the month but it's not always how much rain falls it's how often it falls and that's been the problem this month we started wet and we've gone dry yeah so those seasonal factors really play a role here then i mean especially for a region where you have uh you know the pine the pine barons yeah oh the the Pine Barons are you know this is traditional fire season you look at all the big fires that last the Jones Road fire was being compared to last week and almost all the top 10 fi fires in his historically in New Jersey have occurred in the month of April not all of them we're not out of the woods any time of the year if we're high enough but this is the time of the year the leaves aren't on the deciduous trees yet that shade the forest floor you have all that debris the leaves and twigs from last fall and this past winter uh your grasses haven't greened up yet which enriches them with moisture um the humidity tends to be lower in the spring than in the summer the winds stronger uh and then you go these episodes that you can't count on timely precipitation uh and you go a couple weeks without rain uh and in an area like the Pinelands that's a terribly incendiary situation so are are there long-term um climate trends that are adding to the increased risk that we're seeing in New Jersey in terms of these wildfires not direct yes and yes and no a lot of this fire danger is what's happened weatherwise in recent days but we are getting warmer so that dries things out faster and there's evidence that our rain is falling more episodically um when it rains it pours but we have these interludes when we don't get a lot of precipitation so a little bit more towards the extremes and to the increased warmth you put them together and that could heighten the fire danger somewhat but ultimately it's what's happened lately in the weather department that's going to determine whether a fire breaks out and then once the fire has broken out how fast it might spread when you're looking at how windy it might be or how low that humidity is and so I'm curious then you know to that end uh what are climate models projecting for wildfires in the next 10 to 20 years are they showing um any change in terms of risk in terms of intensity yeah there there have been general studies i'm I'm not familiar with ones specific to the pinelands but particularly when you look out west or even to boreal forest in the Arctic uh there's going to be a tendency to see more of them because you're going to have a a warmer growing season you're going to have a more extended growing season you'll have in some areas less snow cover um and and it will melt out earlier in the spring and that'll allow things to dry out faster so yeah we're looking down the road in the future uh there will be increased climate induced fire threats and then it comes down to managing the fires right and how we're going to address those down the road new Jersey state climatologist Dave Robinson always good to talk to you thanks so much thank you excellent yeah I mean obviously you know strategies for management and recommendations for you know prevention and preparedness that's going to be where the focus has to be as as they move forward yeah and it's real tricky and I've been asked this past week the drought of last fall did it contribute to the fires recently and I don't know the answer to that i want to talk to some forest experts on that but the fact that we went into the the winter without you know perhaps we do have accumulated dry vegetation right i mean so and the lack of moisture in the trees maybe if the fall had been wetter the trees would have a little more more engorged with water at this time of the year i know there's some concerns in terms of um the the apple trees peach trees blueberries um that they were so desiccated last fall that it's going to difficult for them to flower and produce this spring i would be curious to know that too yeah that's another story yeah i always say I don't have a story from yet i I'll give you an idea where you could go look for a story and that's why we love you Dave thank you so much really appreciate it i know I'll be talking to you soon yeah I'm not going away don't Not yet i won't I won't uh sound the alarm bells over here then no no and there's going to be someone take my place so it's never the same yeah well after 34 years people maybe have gotten bored with me so thanks Dave we'll talk soon have a afternoon take care bye-bye