As we just heard Governor Murphy say, these storms are becoming our new reality.

So, what actually happened here?

And is it all part of a larger trend of more severe storms?

I'm joined right now by New Jersey state climatologist Dave Robinson to help us understand the science behind yesterday's deadly storm that didn't just impact New Jersey, but also parts of New York and eastern Pennsylvania.

Dave, great to have you with us tonight.

Help us understand what happened with this storm yesterday.

describe the weather pattern that came through New Jersey.

We had an incredibly moist atmosphere.

I think that's the first take-home.

Uh and there was a lot of instability with daytime heating.

Um we're in the midst of summer when atmospheric flow patterns are slow.

So, we had absolutely prime conditions for thunderstorms to erupt.

slowm moving, saturated with moisture.

A and with that, these storms just kept dumping inch after inch after inch of rain in some areas where miles away considerably less may have fallen.

The thing about yesterday was how widespread um the accumulating storms were compared to what we've seen in recent weeks where they've been more hit or miss.

There were some early warning signs that this could be intense, that there could be flash floods.

Did we know enough about how severe this storm was actually going to be?

This was very well forecast.

There were um outlooks of 3 to 5 ines of rain possible.

We had a few areas that went to the five to slightly over 6 in total in very local areas, but in general, it was an excellent forecast.

When you say five to six, what does that equal in terms of the amount of rainfall we experienced, those folks experienced in those areas?

Yeah, that's great.

To put that in perspective, we get about 4 and 1/2 ines of rain in the month of July.

May surprise people, but it's New Jersey's wetest month of the year, and most of that rain tends to come in these storm systems, not all day rains.

So, we're talking when you get six inches of rain, well over a month's worth of rain in just a few hours.

Was New Jersey I know we've experienced drought conditions over the last several years during the summer months.

How was the state uh in terms of its ability to absorb that water?

I mean, clearly we saw extreme runoff that turned into, you know, streets turned into rivers in many towns.

Was that in any part connected to drought conditions that we've experienced?

No.

None.

none whatsoever.

Um, some of the areas that got the heaviest rain yesterday have been on the dry earth side in July compared to areas in the southern part of the state.

But when you get that much rain in such a short period of time, it doesn't matter if it's over grasslands or if it's over pavement, most of it is going to run off and run off quite quickly.

We we see this flooding as really part of a pattern of floods that we've seen across the country just in the last two weeks from the deadly flooding in Texas to Illinois to North Carolina.

What is driving these intense storms right now?

Is this part of a pattern?

Well, in part it's it's a summer pattern again with a warm atmosphere holds a lot more moisture than a cooler atmosphere.

And with the summer heat, you can erupt these major uh thunderstorms.

And with the lack of steering currents in the atmosphere, as we mentioned, they can park over an area for a considerable point in time.

So, it's not incredibly unusual to have these storms around the country.

But what is making bad storms worse is our warming atmosphere.

Because, as I mentioned, a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture.

For about every degree Celsius of warming, about 7% more moisture is possible.

So, what we're seeing is more of our rain is falling in major events.

And with that, I like to say when it rains, it pours these days.

I'm not saying that storm wouldn't have occurred without, you know, climate change, but the climate change that's indicative of the warming is what's making a bad situation worse.

So, is it fair to say that we should expect more storms like this as we go?

If not necessarily more storms, but those storms that do arrive, wetter storms.

Yeah.

All right.

Dave Robinson, New Jersey State climatologist at Ruckers University.

Thank you as always.

Thank you.