DAVID IS A PULITZER JOURNALIST.

HE EXPLAINS AMERICA'S VOLATILE RIVALRY WITH TWO GREAT POWERS, CHINA AND RUSSIA.

HE TELLS WALTER ISAACSON ABOUT >> THANK YOU.

DAVID WELCOME TO THE SHOW.

>> GREAT TO MEET WITH YOU.

>> OVER THE PAST WEEKEND, IRAN SENT A WHOLE FLEET OF DRONES AND MISSILES FOR THE ATTACK ON COMMANDERS.

WHAT IS BIDEN DOING TO STOP ESCALATION?

>> FIRST LET'S START WITH THE ATTACK THE IRANIANS RAN.

IT WAS NOTABLE FOR TWO THINGS.

ONE WAS, IT WAS THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE IRANIAN REVOLUTION WE'VE SEEN A DIRECT ATTACK ON ISRAEL FROM THE IRANIAN TERRITORY.

THAT IS ONE OF THE BIG TABOOS THAT HAS EXISTED FOR A LONG TIME WHICH IS NO EXCHANGE DIRECTLY.

THE BIGGEST WORRY TO COME OUT OF IT, FORTUNATELY CASUALTIES WERE LOW.

THERE WAS TRAGICALLY ONE YOUNG GIRL WHO WAS INJURED BY SHRAPNEL, BADLY INJURED, BUT THERE WERE NO DEATHS FROM THIS.

THERE WAS THE DEATH OF A RESTRAINT.

THE RESTRAINT WAS THE ATTACK FROM ONE TERRITORY TO ANOTHER.

THE SECOND BIG LESSON THAT CAME OUT OF IT WAS THE IRANIANS ARE LEARNING FROM THE UKRAINE WAR JUST AS WE ARE.

THEY STARTED WITH A SWARM OF DRONES.

THEY THEN HAD CRUISE MISSILES AND BALLISTIC MISSILES THAT COULD MOVE MUCH FASTER.

I THINK THEY HAVE EMERGED FROM LAST WEEKEND WITH A FEW IMPORTANT LESSONS .

THEY NEED TO GO INVEST IN HYPERSONIC'S AND FASTER WEAPONS.

MY FEAR IS THAT THEY MAY THINK THROUGH THIS AND IF THEY CAN'T GET THROUGH THE SHIELD THEY MAY HAVE TO INVEST MORE IN NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND REV UP THE NUCLEAR PROJECT.

WE HAVE NOT SEEN EVIDENCE OF THAT.

>> IRAN AND CHINA HELPED US ON THE NUCLEAR DEAL.

WHAT ARE THEY DOING NOW AND CAN THEY TRY TO STOP THEM FROM GETTING A NUCLEAR WEAPON?

>> IT'S A CRITICAL POINT BECAUSE DURING THE NEGOTIATIONS RUSSIA AND CHINA SAT ON THE SAME SIDE AS THE NEGOTIATING TABLE AS THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPEAN UNION PICK UP THE NEGOTIATIONS STARTED UP NOW AND I THINK THERE'S ALMOST NO CHANCE THEY WOULD, YOU WOULD NOT SEE THEM SITTING ON THAT SIDE.

THE RUSSIANS ARE GETTING THEIR DRONES FROM IRAN.

CHINA, RUSSIA, IRAN TOGETHER FORMING A KEY PART OF WHAT THEY CALL THE AXIS OF RESISTANCE.

THAT IS A BIG CHANGE IN JUST NINE YEARS.

IT IS PART OF THE DYNAMIC OF THESE NEW COLD WARS .

>> LET'S TALK ABOUT THIS BIG CHANGE BECAUSE IT IS HUGE.

THE FACT THAT ALL THREE OF OUR MAJOR ADVERSARIES IN THE PAST 10 YEARS HAVE JOINED FORCES MEANING IRAN, RUSSIA, AND CHINA.

ANY REALIST WOULD HAVE SAID LET'S NOT LET THAT HAPPEN.

LET'S KEEP THEM FROM JOINING FORCES.

WERE WE MAKING A BIG MISTAKE, ESPECIALLY PUSHING CHINA INTO THE ARMS OF THIS AXIS OF RESISTANCE?

>> I ARGUE IN THE BOOK THAT WE MADE A FUNDAMENTAL MISTAKE THAT GOES BACK 30 YEARS.

WE ARE MAKING A GOOD-FAITH EFFORT TO TRY TO INTEGRATE CHINA AND RUSSIA INTO THE WESTERN ECONOMY.

I ARGUE THAT WE SPENT 30 YEARS DELUDING OURSELVES.

SOME WITH BAD INTELLIGENCE.

SOME WITH JUST WISHFUL THINKING.

BELIEVING AT THE END OF THE DAY CHINA WOULD NOT RISK ITS ECONOMIC FUTURE AND EXPORT MARKET OF THE UNITED STATES.

RUSSIA WOULD NOT RISK THE REVENUES IT NEEDED FROM OIL AND GAS TO PURSUE TERRITORIAL GAINS OR IN ORDER TO CRACK DOWN IN WAYS THEY KNEW WHAT SEPARATE THEM FROM THE WEST.

WE FUNDAMENTALLY GOT THAT WRONG FOR VERY DIFFERENT REASONS.

WE WERE NOT LISTENING TO PUTIN WHEN HE SAID IN MUNICH IN 2007 THAT THERE WERE PARTS OF THE OLD RUSSIAN EMPIRE THAT NEEDED TO BE RESTORED.

WE DID NOT REACT FAST ENOUGH WHEN HE ANNEXED CRIMEA AND PART OF UKRAINE.

THEN CHANCELLOR MERKEL SIGNED THE NORD STREAM 2 DEAL THE NEXT YEAR WHICH GAVE A NEW FORM OF REVENUE TO THE RUSSIANS FOR GAS EXPORTS.

SO WHAT WAS VLADIMIR PUTIN SUPPOSED TO CONCLUDE OTHER THAN WE WOULD SCREAM A LOT ABOUT UKRAINE IF YOU WANT TO TAKE THE ENTIRE COUNTRY BUT WE WOULD NOT DO MUCH.

IN CHINA WE MADE PARALLEL MISTAKES.

TO BE PUSH THEM TOGETHER?

I'M NOT SURE WE DID BUT IT IS CLEAR THAT TODAY THEY ARE DOING WHAT NIXON AND KISSINGER WERE TRYING TO PREVENT IN THE MID- 70s.

>> IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES THIS WEEK YOU HAVE UKRAINE AID, ISRAEL, TAIWAN, EVERYTHING BUNDLED UP IN A MESS.

HOW IS BIDEN TRYING TO GET THIS RESOLVED WITH THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES?

AND WHAT DO YOU THINK COULD AND SHOULD HAPPEN?

>> THE INITIAL THEORY OF HOW THEY WERE GOING TO GET AID FOR ISRAEL AND UKRAINE AND FOR TAIWAN AND GET SOME MONEY FOR THE BORDER WAS PUT IT ALL IN ONE BILL ON THE THEORY THAT THERE WOULD BE PARTS OF IT THAT EVERYBODY WOULD HATE, BUT THAT THEY WOULD ALL VOTE FOR IT TO GET WHAT THEY WANTED.

NOW WHAT YOU ARE SEEING THE SPEAKER DEAL IS TRY TO CUT THOSE APART AND TRY TO PUT TOGETHER COALITIONS ON EACH AND EVERY ONE OF THESE WHICH IS INTERESTING .

IT MAY WORK BUT IT REQUIRES HIM TO GET EVERYTHING RIGHT OR YOU ARE GOING TO GET ISRAEL AID AND NO UKRAINE AID OR UKRAINE AID AND NO TAIWAN OR WHATEVER IT WILL BE .

TAIWAN IS PROBABLY THE EASIEST OF THESE THREE.

ON THE LEFT, THE PRESIDENT HAS TO WORRY ABOUT PROGRESSIVES WHO WANT RESTRICTIONS ON AID TO ISRAEL ALTHOUGH I THINK YOU CAN MAKE THAT REASONABLE CASE.

WE PUT RESTRICTIONS ON ALL KINDS OF AID INCLUDING TELLING THE UKRAINIANS THAT THEY CANNOT FIRE U.S. ARMS INTO RUSSIA , FOR EXAMPLE.

IT WOULDN'T BE THAT BIG OF A STRETCH TO SAY YOU CANNOT USE AMERICAN 2000 POUND BOMBS IN A DENSE URBAN AREA LIKE GAZA .

THE HARDEST PIECE OF THIS MAY WELL BE UKRAINE .

WE HAVE A GROUP OF REPUBLICANS WHO BASICALLY WANT TO SEND NO AID AT ALL.

THERE YOU ARE IN A PHILOSOPHICAL DIFFERENCE ABOUT WHAT MESSAGE THAT WAS SENT TO THE WORLD IF THE U.S. AFTER DECLARING TO THE UKRAINIANS WE ARE WITH YOU FOR AS LONG AS IT TAKES, SUDDENLY CHANGES THE MESSAGE TO, WE WERE WITH YOU FOR TWO YEARS BUT WE HAVE RUN OUT OF MONEY.

>> READING ABOUT THE DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGNS .

IT IS SOMETHING YOU'VE BEEN REPORTING ON FOR A LONG TIME.

I WILL READ SOMETHING YOU WROTE ABOUT THE ONLINE DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN JUST RECENTLY.

RUSSIAN OPERATIVES ARE LAYING THE GROUNDWORK FOR WHAT COULD BE A STRONG PUSH TO SUPPORT CANDIDATES WHO OPPOSE AIDING UKRAINE OR WHO CALL FOR PULLING THE UNITED STATES BACK FROM NATO.

HAS THIS EFFORT BY RUSSIA IMPACTED THE POLITICS IN CONGRESS THIS WEEK?

>> IT IS REALLY HARD TO TELL BECAUSE THE RUSSIANS ARE SO MUCH MORE SOPHISTICATED ABOUT THIS THAN THEY WERE IN 2016.

SO WHAT ARE THEY DOING NOW?

THEY ARE SIMPLY GRINDING THINGS THAT AMERICANS THEMSELVES TURN OUT AND AMPLIFYING THOSE .

IN THE HOPE THAT BY BEING MORE SUBTLE ABOUT IT ALL THEY ARE DOING IS AMPLIFIED IN THE WORDS OF PEOPLE WITH FIRST AMENDMENT RIGHTS WHETHER YOU AGREE OR NOT.

IT'S MUCH MORE SOPHISTICATED AND HARDER TO CATCH KIND OF TECHNIQUE.

WHAT I FOUND REALLY INTERESTING AS THEY WERE WORKING ON THE BOOK AND HAVING DONE A PREVIOUS BOOK ON CYBER IS THAT THE CHINESE WHO HAD BASICALLY DONE A LOT OF HACKING BUT NEVER INFORMATION OPERATIONS IN THE UNITED STATES REPLICATE WHAT THEY WERE LEARNING FROM THE RUSSIANS.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE COMBINED EFFECT OF RUSSIAN AND CHINESE DISINFORMATION, MISINFORMATION, OR JUST AMPLIFICATION CAN BE.

>> YOUR PREVIOUS BOOK ON CYBER WARFARE MADE IT FEEL LIKE IN THE 21st CENTURY THAT'S THE WAY WE ARE GOING TO FIGHT WARS.

WHAT IS STUNNING TO ME IS THE UKRAINE WAR IS FOUGHT THE WAY IT WAS 100 YEARS AGO .

IT IS A TRENCH WARFARE.

WHY HAVEN'T THERE BEEN MORE CYBERATTACKS?

>> THERE HAVE BEEN BUT THEY HAVE BEEN OF A NATURE THAT IS A LITTLE BIT HARDER TO SEE.

WHEN YOU ARE WATCHING THE WAR IN UKRAINE, WHAT YOU SEE IS THE MISSILE THAT GOES FOR THE POWER PLANT.

THE PREVIOUS BOOK, THE PERFECT WEAPON, MADE THE ARGUMENT THAT CYBER WAS A TERRIFIC SURE TO TO ATTRIBUTE AND HARD TO SEE AND A WAY OF TAKING SOMETHING OUT OF THE COUNTRY WITHOUT GOING TO FULL-SCALE WAR.

THIS HAS BEEN THE FIRST TIME THAT WE HAVE SEEN A FULL-SCALE WAR BETWEEN TWO VERY CYBER SAVVY COUNTRIES.

RUSSIA AND UKRAINE.

THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT CYBER CAPABILITY BOTH ON OFFENSE AND DEFENSE.

OF COURSE, THE RUSSIANS AS I DESCRIBE IN THE PERFECT WEAPON WHICH WAS FIVE YEARS AGO, THEY USED UKRAINE AS A TESTING GROUND FOR CYBER.

THEY DID IT AGAIN.

IN THE OPENING OF THE BOOK YOU SEE WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE IS SEEING .

WHAT MICROSOFT IS SEEING AND THEY SET UP A FLARE SAYING, CYBERATTACKS HAD BEGUN ON GOVERNMENT AGENCIES AND IT IS A WARNING THAT THE WAR IS ABOUT TO BEGIN.

GENERAL MILLEY , IN HIS COLORFUL WAY, I WILL CLEAN THIS UP BECAUSE HE SPEAKS ARMY.

HE SAID WE THOUGHT AT FIRST THIS WOULD BE A CYBER WAR.

THAN WE THOUGHT IT WAS A TANK WAR.

THEN WE DISCOVER IT IS A LINCOLN WORLD WAR I TRENCH WARFARE.

THE ANSWER IS IT IS ALL THREE.

IT'S 1914, IT IS 1941, AND IT IS 2022 TO 24.

>> THE BIG NEWS THIS WEEK IS THAT PRESIDENT BIDEN IS LOOKING TO PUT HUGE TARIFFS ON CHINESE STEEL .

HOW DOES THAT FIT IN ?

THAT SEEMS TO PUSH CHINA EVEN FURTHER TOWARD THE RUSSIAN-IRAN AXIS.

WHY ARE WE IN THIS CONFRONTATION WITH CHINA RIGHT NOW?

>> I AM NOT SURE THAT THE STEEL PART OF THIS FITS HIS OWN STRATEGY.

WHAT HE KEEPS SAYING IS, I DON'T WANT A COLD WAR WITH CHINA.

HIS FIRST YEAR IN OFFICE .

HE HAS NEVER LIFTED A SINGLE TARIFF THAT TRUMP PUT ON.

HE HAS IMPOSED SOME EXPORT CONTROLS ON CHINA THAT ARE PREVENTING CHINA FROM GETTING THE MOST SOPHISTICATED CHIPS , PARTICULARLY CHIPS THAT WOULD HELP WITH ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE.

THAT MAKES SENSE TO CREATE A BIT OF THE TIME AND GAP FOR THE U.S. TO CATCH UP.

THE STEEL TARIFFS WHICH HE IS DESCRIBING SEEM TO ME TO BE MORE CLASSIC PROTECTIONISM IN AN ELECTION YEAR GAMBIT.

YOU ARE SEEING THAT EVEN WITH NON-ADVERSARIES .

THE PRESIDENT HAS MADE IT CLEAR HE DOES NOT WANT A JAPANESE FIRM TO INVEST IN U.S. STEEL.

THERE IS NO CLOSER ALLY WE HAVE IN THE WORLD JEN --THAN JAPAN.

THEIR PRIME MINISTER WAS JUST GIVEN A STEAK DINNER THE OTHER DAY.

THAT IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN POLITICS INTERFERES WITH THE GOOD JUDGMENT OF WHAT MAKES SENSE AND WHAT DOES NOT.

>> WITH THIS IS ANNOUNCEMENT OF POTENTIAL NEW TARIFFS ON STEEL FROM CHINA IT FOLLOWS THE THEME OF YOUR BOOK THAT SOMEHOW OR ANOTHER THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION IS CONTINUING A LOT OF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION POLICIES WHEN IT COMES TO CHINA.

IS THAT RIGHT?

>> THEY HAVE CERTAINLY CONTINUED A NUMBER OF THE STEPS THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP TOOK .

AS I THE SANCTIONS ARE THE MOST OBVIOUS AMONG THEM.

I THINK THEY HAVE WRAPPED IT INTO A MUCH MORE SOPHISTICATED AND WELL DEVELOPED INDO PACIFIC STRATEGY IN WHICH THEY HAVE BROUGHT AUSTRALIA INTO THE FOLD WITH THE DEAL THAT WILL ESSENTIALLY ALLOW THE AUSTRALIANS TO PRODUCE AMERICAN AND BRITISH DESIGNED NUCLEAR SUBMARINES.

ONE IN WHICH THEY ARE BRINGING ALLIES TOGETHER THAT HAVE NOT WORKED TOGETHER BEFORE.

JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, THE PHILIPPINES.

IN WASHINGTON LAST WEEK WE SAW THE FIRST MEETING BETWEEN THE PHILIPPINE LEADER AND THE JAPANESE PRIME MINISTER WITH THE AMERICANS GUIDING IT ALONG THE WAY.

THIS IS AN EFFORT TO TRY TO CREATE CLOSER TO CHINA'S SHORES A GROUPING THAT IS NOT QUITE NATO, BUT IS A MADE FOR PURPOSE ALLIANCE TO SHOW A COMMON FRONT AGAINST CHINESE EXPANSIONISM.

I THINK THAT MAKES SENSE IN A WAY THAT THE TRUMP POLICY NEVER DID.

YOU REMEMBER TRUMP WOULD CUT ANY DEAL WITH CHINA.

HE ONCE TOLD THE CHINESE PRESIDENT I'M NOT GOING TO COMPLAIN ABOUT WHAT YOU DO IN HONG KONG IF IT LOOKS LIKE WE CAN GET A TRADE DEAL.

YOU ARE NOT HEARING THAT FROM JOE BIDEN.

BUT A LOT OF THE TECHNIQUES THAT HE USED INCLUDING TARIFFS YOU ARE NOT SEEING .

>> THIS BOOK SHOWS THE REAL COMPLEXITIES THAT WE FACE ESPECIALLY WITH THREE ADVERSARIES ALIGNED AGAINST THE U.S.

BEING AGAINST RUSSIA, CHINA, AND IRAN.

HOW WOULD YOU BREAK OUT OF THIS?

>> THE FIRST LESSON IN THE BOOK AND ITS COMPLEXITY IS, WE ARE NOT IN YOUR OLD COLD WAR.

IT WAS BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND SOVIET UNION AND WAS PRIMARILY A NUCLEAR CONTEST.

THIS INVOLVES TWO MAJOR ADVERSARIES.

SOME MINOR ONES ARE LESS CAPABLE ONCE.

A NUMBER OF COUNTRIES THAT ARE SITTING ON THE SIDELINES .

THAT IS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO DO .

THE OTHER DAY THERE WAS A FASCINATING INVESTMENT THAT MICROSOFT MADE WITH A COMPANY CALLED P 42 IN THE UNITED EMIRATES.

WHILE THIS LOOKS LIKE AN EFFORT TO INVEST IN AI IN THE MIDDLE EAST WHAT IT REALLY WAS WAS AN EFFORT TO BOX THE CHINESE OUT OF THE MIDDLE EAST.

THAT IS THE NEW TERRITORY.

WHETHER THERE WOULD BE A DOMINO THEORY OF IDEOLOGIES.

THE QUESTION IS WHO WILL CONTROL THE KEY TECHNOLOGIES OF THE COMING DECADES.

THE ONLY WAY I KNOW TO DO THAT IS TO BE BOTH AGGRESSIVE AND THOUGHTFUL ABOUT HOW THE U.S. GOVERNMENT HELPS PRIVATE ENTERPRISE TO DO THIS.

THIS MICROSOFT DEAL WAS BASICALLY CONCEIVED OF BY THE ADMINISTRATION ALTHOUGH THE U.S. IS NOT FORMALLY A PARTY TO IT.

YOU WILL NEED TO SEE A LOT MORE OF THAT.

I KNOW THERE'S AN AVERSION TO INDUSTRIAL POLICY, BUT THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS THAT THE WORLD RIGHT NOW IS A SERIES OF VACUUMS THAT ONE GREAT TOWER OR ANOTHER IS GOING TO FILL.

IF YOU DECIDE WE DON'T WANT THE U.S. INVOLVED IN THIS.

WE JUST WANT TO BUILD WALLS AND PULLBACK, WHAT YOU ARE ESSENTIALLY SAYING IS I DON'T CARE WHO FILLS THOSE VACUUMS.

MY GUESS IS THAT IS PROBABLY NOT A POLICY THAT OVER TIME WILL WORK OUT WELL.

>> DAVID SANGER, AS ALWAYS THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.