(upbeat music) - [Tim] A special edition of "Off the Record", the year-end.

A look at what happened in 2022 impacting you and yours.

Capitol correspondents Chuck Stokes, Zoe Clark, Chad Livengood, and Bill Ballenger are here.

We'll take a look at 2022.

So sit in with us as we get the inside out, "Off the Record".

(upbeat music) - [Announcer] Production of "Off the Record" is made possible in part by: Martin Waymire, a full-service strategic communications agency, partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing, and public policy engagement.

Learn more at www.martinwaymire.com And now, this edition of "Off the Record" with Tim Skubick.

- Welcome to Studio C8.

It is December the 20th, before Christmas and the new year, but we're gonna take a look at 2022.

And we're gonna start out by asking Mr. Ballenger, the senior member of the group here, what's your headline for 2022, Billy?

- Banner year for Michigan Democrats.

- [Tim] Ah, that's not bad.

That's about a two.

Okay, Chad?

- US Supreme Court upends Republican plans to take over Congress.

- [Tim] Eh, that's too long.

Go ahead, Z.

(chuckles) - Dobbs decision changes everything.

- [Tim] Yeah.

- Whitmer and Gilchrist turn Michigan government blue.

- Supreme Court helps Governor get elected.

- [Zoe] Mm-hmm.

- Yeah?

Okay.

Let's, Bill, what was your headline again that I boo-hoo'd?

- [Zoe] It was that good!

(laughs) You've already forgotten it.

- Banner year- - [Tim] Yeah.

- For Michigan Democrats.

- [Zoe] Yeah.

- [Tim] Yeah.

- But it wouldn't have been a banner year had it not been for Samuel Alito writing an opinion overturning 50 years of abortion precedent, that opinion getting leaked six weeks before it actually got released.

Unprecedented.

And it gave Democrats six weeks to prepare for war, and they were already ready.

They had already put together a ballot initiative for making abortion a part of a constitutional right in Michigan, and they just stepped on the gas.

They got hundreds of thousands of signatures in that time period.

And then when the decision came down on Dobbs on June 24th, they were ready to go, and the Republicans were flatfooted from there on out.

- Let me just add one other part of the piece of that puzzle.

Actually, the Governor disclosed the other day that they started thinking about this thing before that memo, when the Justice died, Ruth Ginsburg.

- [Zoe] Oh, I mean- - It was at that point they said, "We know this is coming.

It's just a matter of time."

- Well, and you did see that from the Whitmer administration, I mean, bringing up legal matters, right?

And so much as asking the, you know, using her executive authority to ask the Michigan Supreme Court for a ruling about whether or not abortion under the state constitution, again, this was before Proposal 3 even turned in enough signatures on July 11th.

Look, Rick Pluta likes to joke that the US Supreme Court should have to declare an in-kind contribution to the Whitmer campaign.

(Chad laughs) - Well, she at least owes him a thank you note.

- And, and I mean, you know, everyone says it's the dog that caught the car.

And I just think it fundamentally shifted and changed, not just in Michigan, right, but throughout the country, the energizing factor for young voters, for women, and for men to turn out.

And that's what we saw here.

And the fact, as well, that Proposal 3, enshrining abortion rights into the state constitution, was also on the ballot, aside from just Whitmer and Democrats winning, was huge.

- I agree with all of that, and I think that was certainly the lead in the momentum.

But I think there's also an elephant in the room that played a key role in this.

And that is the fact that former President Donald Trump did not stay out of this election.

And he was always in the headlines, whether it was the investigation in Washington or what have you, and the fact that he couldn't just let Republicans run their own races.

He had to back certain people, and the people he backed did not do well.

So they used those two things.

Abortion clearly the big kahuna in all this.

But I think they also, Democrats were very strategic in trying to figure out who to run against the Trump/MAGA folks.

- Billy, back to your headline.

You have to really also put in perspective that not only the Supreme Court decision, but redistricting.

The people of Michigan actually teed this up a couple of years ago when they said, "Let's draw some safe lines, or non-gerrymandered lines."

And by golly, it worked, didn't it, to a degree?

- Yes, it did.

Tim, look, I just boiled everything that everybody just said, all of which is true, down into four words: Banner year for Michigan Democrats.

That's the bottom line.

- [Tim] You're gonna stay on that, aren't you?

(group laughs) - [Bill] Yeah.

- All right, it's now a four.

- Boil it down.

But the point is, you're right.

The Independent Redistricting Commission, new lines made a big difference.

Democrats have claimed for years, "We got the aggregate popular vote victory in election after election for two decades, and yet we never ended up with a majority of members in either the House or the Senate."

Finally, they said, "We got lines that gave us a chance to win."

They got the aggregate popular vote edge over Republicans this year, and guess what?

This time it produced a narrow win in both the House and Senate, 20-18 in the Senate, 56-54 in the House.

- At a normal time, if these stories were not there, the story that we had where some people running for governor couldn't collect signatures, could have been the lead story of the year because that was so off the wall, right?

- [Chuck] Yeah.

- Yes, and that's what I was gonna, I mean, we're talking basically about, you know, the Democrats here, and really running the tables.

But what we haven't yet talked about is the fact (laughs) that Republicans had really terrible candidates, and Republicans themselves are saying they had really terrible... Well, one part of the Republican Party after the election, right?

That you not only had these five Republican candidates, a couple of whom seemed to be sort of the top tier, get kicked off the ballot back in May, but the candidates that you ended up with for the statewide ticket, some of whom had been approved, right, at the convention, were just candidates that had never run for office.

And we talk about this all the time.

(laughs) - And they spent their entire year attacking each other, undermining each other, challenging each other, and it became an absolute mess.

Whether it was the candidates themselves, and you had these boatload of candidates in the primary, or it was the Republican Party here, and the leadership that a lot of Republicans now say was totally defunct.

They didn't do a good job raising money, they didn't do a good job supporting their candidates, and you had all this infighting.

- So is this race different if James Craig is part of the mix, or if Perry Johnson is part of the mix?

- I don't know.

James Craig was one of the most lousiest candidates for governor we've seen in a long time.

- [Tim] He was the anointed, he was the anointed candidate!

- I know he was anointed, and that was the problem.

A year ago this week, I toured the Better Made Potato Chip factory with James Craig.

And this became kind of symbolic of his entire campaign.

The man never left Wayne County, on very few occasions.

One time, I watched him give a speech, I think it was last March, in which he was at one of these groups that was meeting in Lansing, the Michigan Economic Developer's organization.

And he stopped and asked, "What county am I in?

Is this Ingham County?"

I mean, he had no orientation beyond Wayne County.

It was bizarre.

I mean, I had written a column about how he hadn't even been, by April, he hadn't even been to Hillsdale yet, and he just didn't get out and do the work.

And that's why people like John Yob quit him.

I mean, they just up and left him.

- Well, he thought it was gonna be handed to him on a platter.

- Yes, and that he would get a Trump endorsement, and it would be all good, and he would just hang out at Mar-a-Lago at the pool.

No, that's just not how it works.

And Gretchen Whitmer, I mean, she just goes out and works, and she's a hard, great campaigner.

And we know it by the amount of money, $23 million- - [Zoe] Absolutely.

- She raised in like eight months, the first eight months this year.

I mean, just insane how much work that she put into it, and how little work like 10 other Republican opponents didn't put into it.

(chuckles) - Yeah, and I think we sometimes, even in the media, underestimated Governor Whitmer's political skills, and she proved that she really has them.

She knows Lansing, she knows the legislature, she knows politics, she knows how to communicate.

And she put all of those things together, along with her team, and the team behind them, and she came out 10 points ahead.

But keep in mind, on paper, coming out of the primary, it looked like this was going to be a great race.

You had, historic, two women running against each other for governor, never happened in this state before.

Both of them, very photogenic, both good communicators.

You know, we were salivating waiting for the debate, said, "This is gonna be great!"

But what happened, right after that primary, why it took Dixon so long to get up on the air.

- We went a month- - [Tim] Six weeks.

- Yeah, I was gonna say a month, but six weeks.

And all that time, Whitmer never stopped hammering her on the abortion.

She did it through the primary, when she didn't even have an opponent.

She could have sat her on her money, but she acted like she had an opponent there.

And then she kept it going all the way down the line.

- Was she vulnerable?

Was she beatable?

- That's a question I have asked myself and others over and over again.

And, to Chad's point, when you come, you know, you kind of come down with like, well, who are the candidates?

That's a question I always ask.

Who are the people that could've- - [Tim] Could Perry Johnson have beaten her?

- Not with Dobbs.

(hand slaps) I just don't see how with Dobbs.

And I also think, again, (hand slaps table repeatedly) it didn't help that Tudor Dixon so quickly off the bat, you know, gave the whole perfect example about abortion.

'Cause I think could it have been tighter, had she had a different stance vis-à-vis her outlook on abortion?

But again, this goes back to just sort of Republicans, and digging into this idea about culture wars and book banning.

When you would talk to Republicans and they'd say, "Well, it's about the economy and it's about inflation."

And it's like, "Well, then why are you talking about this?"

When, you know, again, abortion and the economy and inflation seemed to be, you know, the top things that folks wanted to talk about.

And Whitmer was smart, too, right on, going on TV and saying, "You know, as Governor, I can't fix global inflation."

And just owning it and talking very openly about it.

- And at the end of the day, it was a horse race, to borrow your, what's the name of your horse again?

- [Chad] Theo.

(group laughs) - You know, maybe we ought to have the horse on as a guest.

But I digress.

Look at, this is- - Real quick.

I wonder if Rinke could have possibly beaten her.

And I think the interview that you did, recently on your show- - [Zoe] Last week?

- Yeah, was an interesting interview, because- - If that had been the Rinke that ran, but that was not.

- Right, right.

- Not zombies, not dead people votin'.

- Because it might have made some of those independents and some of those moderate Republicans stay within the party and not cross over to Whitmer.

But I think the fact that they did a great job of painting Tudor Dixon as a pawn of the DeVos family and Donald Trump, that that made a lot of moderate Republicans and independents say, "Mm, not going there."

- The problem with the primary is that Perry Johnson and James Craig got kicked off the ballot at the beginning of June.

Then Republicans in the legislature started looking around and realizing, "Oh, hell, this is gonna get bad for us."

June 24th, Dobbs decision.

June 30th, they cut a billion dollar spending spree deal with Governor Whitmer, and to sign a budget, get it done with July 1st, and then they go home and never return, basically, to Lansing.

- [Tim] They had options.

- And then the whole Republican primary was essentially a five-week grovel fest for Donald Trump's endorsement.

And he handed it down on Friday afternoon, before the primary, and Tudor Dixon wins.

I mean, it was just as simple as that, basically.

- [Zoe] Yeah.

- They didn't spend any time talking to voters.

They literally were talking to a voter of one in Palm Beach, Florida.

It was incredible.

- Don't forget about Ryan Kelley (hand pounds) and the FBI.

(laughs) - Yeah, there's a whole lot of other side shows in this whole saga, but they really didn't spend much time talking to voters.

And like, in mid-July, when we polled Republican primary voters, and 70% were opposed, or supported an exception for abortion in cases of rape or incest.

And then when you asked whether if you would let teenage girls get an abortion, it rose to 78% among Republican voters.

Tudor Dixon was talking to 22% of Republican voters in her abortion message.

It just fell flat.

- Look, there was a way to finesse that issue.

And it's so simple.

"I don't support the rape and incest exceptions, but if a person wants to make that choice, I'm fine with it."

And I asked the governor that question, I said, "Would that have changed the dynamics?"

She said, "Well, it sounded a little more sensible."

You can't call somebody radical if they say that, right?

- [Chuck] Yeah.

- You can't!

- That was a troubling issue.

And her stance was so rigid, and the ads were so rigid (chuckles) that many of our colleagues were in, they just used clips showing the interviews on her, and they were very strategic on which clips they picked.

- You can still call them radical if they don't support the law.

And that's what this came down to.

Women started figuring out, people got really smart on the 1931 abortion law, knowing that it actually dates back to a law in the 1840s.

I mean, so they just realized, "Oh, wow, that is 20 years before the Civil War, and 60 years before, you know, we got even got rights in this country, essentially."

And so they, you know, that really came home real fast and people got smart on it.

And I'm not sure that she could have wiggled out of, "Well, I support your choice, but not my, I'm gonna oppose it anyways."

'Cause if she doesn't firmly say, "I will, you know, as a governor, I will sign this bill," she would've gotten pinned down on that, too.

- Billy, what's your take on this?

- Tim, it would've been almost impossible for any Republican to beat Gretchen Whitmer this year.

She's an incumbent governor.

It would've taken a perfect candidate, like George Romney back in 1962.

Or, a candidate- - [Tim] How about Candice Miller?

- Like John Engler in 1990, who ran a great campaign.

- [Tim] Billy, how about Candice Miller?

- [Bill] It would've taken, and they didn't have that.

So the other thing that nobody has mentioned here is Whitmer buried Dixon in cash, campaign cash.

I mean, we don't know yet what her advantage was, but it was probably at least five to one, it could have been 10 to one.

Dixon had no money after she won the primary, for a month, that's why she couldn't get up on the air.

Whitmer just killed her with an avalanche of campaign funds.

That is really what did it more than anything else.

That made all the other things that you've talked about happen, because of the money advantage.

- Just, we should stop trying to like, game out.

What if Candice Miller had run here?

Because we know the answer.

Candice Miller would not have groveled to Donald Trump for and endorsement.

- [Tim] Yep.

- That's just beneath her and her ethics and her career and legacy.

- [Tim] So you're saying she wouldn't have gotten the nomination.

- [Chad] No, she could've easily lost.

- [Zoe] You have to get through the Republican primary.

- [Chad] Yes.

- And what we saw this cycle (hand pounds) is it's really hard (laughs) to win a Republican primary, if you are, quote-unquote, the establishment.

- Ryan Kelley and Perry Johnson, and who, Garrett Soldano, and who?, and Tudor Dixon, they all went down to Mar-a-Lago.

They all made attempts to kiss the ring and such.

I just cannot imagine Candice Miller stooping to that level.

- Well, Tudor Dixon didn't do what the governor of Virginia did when he ran, you know.

He never said anything insulting about Donald Trump.

But he kept Donald Trump out of Virginia and he ran his own race.

- [Chad] She pulled him in on October 1st for a rally in Macomb County.

- That's right.

- [Zoe] Even wearing, remember that she started wearing the Glenn Youngkin vests, even, as like this kind of, you know, allude to, and it was all about... Because what we did see with that Glenn Youngkin race was he did (hand pounds) spend a lot of time on parental rights and education and things like that.

But again, (hand pounds repeatedly) this was all before Dobbs.

- We had great concern from the Secretary of State about disruptions, which thankfully did not occur on election day.

She was serious about this stuff.

- [Zoe] Oh!

- There was stuff going on out there.

- Absolutely.

I mean, how can you not be, right?

I mean, after January 6th, I don't know that you could just pretend that this isn't an issue in American democracy today.

It just fundamentally is.

Now what's really interesting is new polling came out just last week that shows Michigan voters feeling better about democracy after this election.

- [Tim] That's because their guys won.

(chuckles) - No, I don't, no.

This was Republicans and Democrats.

This is, like, you know, small-d, not Democratic Party.

But like, the fundamental state.

(hand pounds) We got close.

And I think what you've talked about is this sort of, (sighs) more and more kind of breaking of democratic norms, right, and institutions and belief, whether it's science or teachers or journalists, you know, small-d democratic institutions.

(hand pounds) And this election in Michigan went off without a hitch and there was a lot of work.

That was not a, you know, "Oh, aren't we lucky?"

That is because people and efforts (hand pounds) and how much work was put in to being really clear about when we would know results, what was going to happen at the polls, what would happen if, you know, poll challengers were there.

Because folks were not prepared (hand pounds) in 2020 for what happened.

- Let's not forget that the Republicans, and the Democrats, but the Republicans were really geeked about getting their people in the polling place, weren't they?

- They were, yeah.

But the Republicans also in the legislature came around to the idea, at the last minute, practically, this fall, that they needed to give the clerks more time to process after- - Well, they didn't give them enough.

Ms. Benson told me that law was basically useless!

- Well, it's all about trying to get incremental change.

And I'm sure that Ms. Benson will get more change in the Democratic legislature next year.

But yeah, it's, I mean, we're gonna have to, because the voters of this state just approved a constitutional amendment allowing nine days of early voting.

Voting is going to fundamentally change - [Chuck] That's right.

- In this state like we've never seen it before.

And so we are going to have to adapt and make our laws and our systems more adapted to the changes that the voters have put in the Constitution.

- And Chuck, we hear the Republicans are thinking that maybe mail-in balloting, absentee voting's a pretty good thing.

- Well, it's coming down the pipe whether they think it's a good thing or not.

- [Tim] They opposed it for 40 years in this town.

- Right, but they're looking at the results of what happened across the country, and the fact that this is a way of life now for people.

You know, we do 24/7 banking at ATMs all the time.

If we can make that convenient to everybody else, people want the convenience.

And I think what contributed greatly to that was COVID-19.

That changed the world in so many different levels, and it even changed voting and the convenience that we want.

No one wants to stand in long lines, huddled up with a bunch of people anymore, when in the backdrop is COVID-19 and flu, influenza, and all kind of other things.

People want the convenience to go in, vote, come out safe, be done with it.

- As long as you can still get the "I Voted" sticker.

(group laughs) - That's right.

- [Tim] Very, very important.

- But Republicans have, they've done some harm to their brand and among voters by spending a couple years now trashing absentee voting.

And even though, before, the no-reason absentee voting amendment was passed in 2018, Republicans usually benefited more from absentee votes ahead of election day.

And now, it's flipped.

Democrats have seized upon this.

They're realizing that the general public, particularly younger voters, like the convenience, and they've really, you know, taken it to the next level.

And Republicans, you know, they've been telling people that this is bad, even though it's no different than the way that they, if you show up in person and feed the ballot in yourself.

- Bill, the Governor, in her State of the State message that I looked at last night, I have no life.

(panel chuckles) She called for a tax credit for EVs, for electric vehicles, a $2,500 rebate.

And she also wanted the EITC and she wanted the senior tax done.

How did she do on that front?

- Well, I think those are very popular proposals, no question about it.

The pension tax on seniors has been her campaign promise in 2018.

She couldn't get it done in the legislature.

They wouldn't give it to her.

The Earned Income Tax Credit is a popular concept, actually originated with Ronald Reagan back in the 1980s.

Republicans, much of them, back it.

And the tax credit on electrical vehicles, it's a coming thing.

I think it shows she's on the cutting edge.

So I think those were very, would be if she gives them in her speech, which you have apparently already seen, would be very popularly received by the public and the news media here in Michigan.

- All right, let's take a look.

We're doing a little self-promotion here.

We did a sit-down at the executive residence with the Governor and the First Hubby, excuse me, the First Gentleman.

And here's a little excerpt of what the exchange we had about the debates, and one of the issues that came up in the debate.

During the debate, you said, "Schools will be closed for three months."

Did you know after you said that you put your foot in your mouth?

- Well, you know, I was getting a little tired.

- When you looked up there, the answer's "yes", Governor.

- I was getting a little tired of my opponent saying I had shut down schools for two years.

It was wrong.

Under my order, schools were out for three months, and then it went to the locals.

We worked closely the locals- - But you didn't say that.

But you didn't say that.

- Tim, in a debate, you got 60 seconds to talk about a lot of stuff, and then you get 30 seconds to clear the record.

I went into it.

Didn't have enough time to say the extra part.

- Yeah, there you go.

(Zoe scoffs) What do you make of that, Z?

- Oh, look, I have never sat on a debate stage, stood on a debate stage and had to, you know, give my point in 30, you know, to 60 seconds.

I assume it's really, really tough.

We all get to watch and then critique it.

But yeah, it was a foot-in-the-mouth moment, you know.

I think she's accepting that it was, and it was one of those moments in the debate of which there were quite a few, that I think a lot of folks were surprised at how well Tudor Dixon did.

To which I say she literally was a conservative media personality (hand pounds) whose job for a couple years before running was to look into a TV camera and speak.

And so I don't think anyone should have been shocked that she came and did a good job.

- Well, the Governor, in that program said, "You know, look it, she had the training, okay?"

She said, "I was not surprised that she was good in the format," sort of thing.

But did you think she put her foot in the mouth when she said that?

- Well, I was there and I could tell you, she put her foot in her mouth there.

She made a mistake, and I think she 'fessed up to it there.

And Tudor Dixon was very quick at responding, in catching that.

And then, of course, they used it in commercials.

And the Governor is right.

You know, in those type of debates, things happen.

They go by awfully fast, you can make a mistake.

And that was one mistake she made.

- We should note the moderator (hand pounds) of that debate was just excellent.

- [Tim] Absolutely.

(Chuck laughs) - Check's in the mail, right?

(Zoe cackles) - Did you like that format?

- Uh, yes.

And I'll tell you why.

I was surprised by the number of viewer mail responses we got afterwards, where people wanted a forum in which they could hear people, and they didn't want to feel as though we were competing in any way against the candidates.

I think people were so tired- - By asking a tough question?

- No, but I think by sometimes feeling as though we're constantly coming at them.

Let it be their forum.

Ask them the questions.

They wanted to see the candidates.

And I think people have grown a little weary in the debate format of everybody coming down on top of each other.

I think there's, I think we're trying to work our way back to civility, and I think that's what people seem to appreciate about that.

- [Tim] What did you think of the format?

- I'm generally supportive of any debates.

We need more of 'em.

I mean, I did, I moderated a couple in the Kildee/Junge race, and Stevens in 11.

- [Tim] Were the candidates allowed to talk to one another?

- They were in the Stevens 11 race.

But, you know, every format's different.

And I prefer that the people be able to respond to each other directly.

- All right, what's the lead story in the new year, Ms. Clark?

- Oh, my gosh!

Watching Democrats working together for the first time in 40 years to run government.

That's a really long headline.

You didn't ask for a headline.

- [Tim] That's all right.

- That's what the story is.

Fundamental shifts (hand pounds repeatedly) in the nature of how Lansing works and operates, and folks are gonna have to figure out how to do that.

(laughs) - [Tim] Amen from everybody?

Billy, do you agree, quickly, in five seconds or less?

(Zoe laughs) - Not quite, Tim.

(panel laughs) - [Tim] All right, well then- - I would say, (quiet music begins) Democrats have their majorities.

Will they blow them again?

- We'll see.

That'll be the- - [Zoe] Dun, dun, dun!

- Yeah, next year (Zoe laughs) around this table, we'll have the answer.

Thank you, all to you.

Everybody have a great holiday and a brand new year.

Don't forget to watch that evening with the Governor, right here on public TV, December 30th.

It's kind of an interesting show.

See you then.

- [Announcer] Production of "Off the Record" is made possible in part by: Martin Waymire, a full-service strategic communications agency, partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing, and public policy engagement.

Learn more at ww.martinwaymire.com For more "Off the Record", visit www.wkar.org Michigan Public Television stations have contributed to the production costs of "Off the Record".

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