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- Coming up right now on WEDU, less than 11 months to go before the 2024 election, and already candidates and their allies are putting up many political ads.

By the time we get to next November, a record $10.2 billion will have been spent on national, state, and local political spots.

But do ads change anyone's mind?

What does it take to make an ad that has impact?

We'll talk with two of the best in the business, Democrat Kevin Cate and Republican Adam Goodman on a special edition of "Florida This Week."

(upbeat music) Welcome back.

By the time we get to the November 2024 election, candidates and other organizations will have spent an estimated $10.2 billion total in political ads.

With the country so deeply divided between red and blue, does spending so much money on political commercials really convince anyone, and who do the ads target, and what makes an effective ad?

We've invited two of the smartest people in Florida who are in the political campaign business to discuss some recent political ads.

Joining us now is Adam Goodman.

He's the Edward R. Murrow Senior Fellow at Tufts University, a political consultant, and a Republican.

And Kevin Cate is the founder of CATECOMM Communications, a political consultant, and a Democrat.

So nice to have both of you guys here.

This is great.

Well, you've each brought your favorite ads, one of your favorite ads, and let's play them.

And we're gonna start with Kevin.

This first ad has not run in Florida, but if the abortion-protection measure appears on the ballot next year, a similar ad could run.

This ad was run in the recent Kentucky Governor's race.

It's an attack on the Republican candidate, Daniel Cameron, who wanted to severely restrict access to abortion even in the cases of rape or incest.

- I was raped by my stepfather after years of sexual abuse.

I was 12.

Anyone who believes there should be no exceptions for rape and incest could never understand what it's like to stand in my shoes.

This is to you, Daniel Cameron.

To tell a 12-year-old girl she must have the baby of her stepfather who raped her is unthinkable.

I'm speaking out because women and girls need to have options.

Daniel Cameron would give us none.

- Kevin, did that ad make the difference in Kentucky, and what made that ad so good in your mind?

- Well, first off, it features a hero, just the bravery of that young woman to stand in front of a camera and talk about something so deeply personal and hurtful.

But it also put into real terms what's at stake in some of these elections, especially when you get down into some of these red states that are passing these laws that are restricting women from having basic healthcare rights and autonomy over their own bodies.

And you know, it's hard to say, and Adam, I'm sure will agree with this, what ad makes a difference and what doesn't.

But I assure you, I mean, I get emotional just watching that ad, and I'm in this business.

And so certainly that broke through and was part of the narrative of an election where you had a Democratic governor winning a ruby-red state by a huge margin, despite a lot of resources being spent against him.

Obviously this is an issue that we're paying very close attention to in Florida and some of these other red or purple states that are trying to pass laws against women.

- Kevin, we're so divided as a country.

There's a hardcore left.

There's a hardcore right.

Do ads ever change people's minds?

And is this the kind of ad that might've changed somebody's mind?

- I mean, you're asking political consultants who make TV ads, and so obviously we believe in what we do.

I don't think neither Adam nor I would do what we do if we didn't think that we were making a positive difference in the world.

And certainly persuading voters is part of our mission.

And that's why we wake up in the morning to make these ads and figure out how to craft the right message to break through.

And really what we're trying to do when we make political ads is not trying to invent something new, but it's to try to find something that resonates, that's a feeling that you already have.

And we're trying to make sure that you know not only the issues that are at stake but the values that are behind those issues and what's at stake in these elections.

And increasingly with our democracy being threatened by Donald Trump and people who don't give, frankly don't care about the constitution, these ads are becoming more and more important, not just on television, but also on digital.

- Adam, same question to you.

I mean, is it just independents and NPAs that these ads appeal to?

Can you change the mind, let's say, of a Democrat or Republican with an ad?

- So let's start with the basics.

We run ads to try to inform and motivate, right?

And I can tell you, I agree with Kevin.

That was a very, very powerful commercial.

It's hard to beat the reality of human testimony to something that is gripping like that.

And the issue of abortion obviously is a very emotional and very personal issue for a lot of women across America, and should be.

In terms of what works and what doesn't, a message has to be both relevant, compelling, timely, and real in terms of credibility.

And I think that has a lot of credibility and a lot of reality built into it.

And I think those are powerful ways to drive a conversation, whether it's for state office, local office, or even for president of the United States, to show that there are differences, and there are differences that are bottom line to people.

The emotion of the abortion issue, if I could just address that for a second.

We've evolved as a society.

Let's just put it where it is.

I remember not long ago when gay marriage was against the law in a lot of states, including the state of Florida.

There was an amendment passed against gay marriage.

And now that's completely changed.

Why?

Because their country has evolved.

It's evolved in its attitudes and its social mores.

The same thing I think is happening on abortion.

And I think the lines that were always, are you pro-life or pro-choice, it's now more decidedly are you willing to give the women of this country the ultimate decision over this?

And I think you can see that in the Ohio contest and in many other ballots from '23 initiative campaigns.

It's moving that way.

And what I would advise, frankly, people who are pro-life and are personally and committed to being pro-life, which is fine.

Your personal beliefs are your personal beliefs.

If you're pro-life in this environment, I think the one thing they have to make clear, and you saw a little bit of this in a way from Nikki Haley in one of the presidential debates, though she didn't quite get all the way there.

And it's this line.

No politician should ever make that decision for any woman anywhere.

The people of the state, maybe.

That's their prerogative, right, to pass state laws, whatever, but not a politician.

- Let's play one of your favorite ads.

This is a Ron DeSantis ad.

Let's roll that one.

- [Narrator] Steel isn't forged overnight, but after all the blasting and casting is done, it's strong, it lasts.

Grandson of a steelworker, Ron DeSantis worked his way through college, joined the Navy as a JAG officer, earned a Bronze Star serving in Iraq.

Governor DeSantis never backs down because his backbone wasn't forged overnight.

Ron DeSantis, president.

Never Back Down is responsible for the content of this advertising.

- So Adam, that's an introductory ad.

Why do you like that one?

- It's like, "Take the hill.

Let's go get 'em."

I mean, it just really gets you up.

And as Kevin knows, you know, there's always an assumptive-ness that we have to fight.

Well, I assume everyone kind of knows about Ron DeSantis because he's governor, state of Florida.

It's a big state in the country.

Assume nothing.

Go back to the beginning.

Make sure that you give the kinds of resume credential that afford or create credibility that that person aspiring to another job can actually get that job done.

That's what that was, and I thought the visuals were powerful.

I thought the announce track, the music was terrific.

It got you going.

What we're missing right now in this country more than anything is a boost of confidence.

We're kind of down in the mouth.

You see, you know, right track, wrong track.

Most people think we're headed down a bad track.

We want someone out there to say, "Follow me.

We got this."

And I think that ad did a lot.

Had the governor followed that track all the way up to now, I think he'd be in far different position than he finds himself in.

- That's an ad he's running in the primary.

Kevin, what'd you think about that?

As a Democrat, I mean, does that project the strength that DeSantis is depicting in that ad?

- First off, I respect anybody that serves in the military and honor that, and he should be talking about that.

Obviously that's an important part of his bio.

But that ad is actually hilarious to me because it is the exact opposite of how he acts.

I mean, this is a guy who's running an ad or his political, you know, committee is running the ad, saying he never backs down.

Yet the guy wouldn't say one word against his, the man that made him, Donald Trump.

Has not, you know, until very, very recently even had one slightly bad thing to say.

He's a guy who swore to uphold the constitution, obviously served his country.

Yet he's unwilling to stand up not only to Donald Trump, but for the police officers, for the Capitol police who were, you know, attacked on January 6th.

He's an apologist for everything that is wrong with this country.

And he won't stand up and actually, you know, be the tough guy forged of steel or whatever.

He's like forged of silly putty.

- Okay, we're getting political quickly.

- Oh, I can't wait.

So Kevin just gave you the response ad, right?

But he did have one line in his response ad 'cause if I could cut the beginning and end of that, it's a great ad.

It's "It's everything that's wrong in this country."

That's the kind of hyperbole and exaggeration, whatever, that people find is a step too far.

But it is a big part of political ads these days.

Those are the ads, I think, that have a short shelf life.

The ones that have longer life is showing something that's not obvious, something that's beneath the skin and shows the soul and character of somebody who seeks leadership, and I think that ad did it.

- Let's look at another ad.

California Governor Gavin Newsom put up this ad claiming that women will face criminal charges if they have abortions outside the state time limit in Florida.

- [Narrator] Wanted by order of Governor Ron DeSantis.

Any woman who has an abortion after six weeks and any doctor who gives her care will be guilty of a felony.

Abortion after six weeks will be punishable by up to five years in prison, even though many women don't even know they're pregnant at six weeks.

That's not freedom.

It's Ron DeSantis' Florida.

- So PolitiFact says that ad is only half true.

Time will tell if any women are actually prosecuted.

Also DeSantis has said he doesn't want women prosecuted, only the doctors.

But Kevin, let me go to you on this ad.

Who is that aimed at?

And what is Gavin Newsom doing taking out ads in Florida about Florida issues?

- Because he knows that Ron DeSantis was a sucker and agreed to debate him.

I think this was more of an earned media play.

That ad's not going to be moving any voter, but it certainly moves, you know, the political chatter on Twitter, you know, that DeSantis was kind of an easy target and is an easy target, frankly, whether it's the high heels online or for the... You know, obviously most of the Republican party has turned against him nationally.

I think that was Governor Newsom, just a little shot across the bow saying, you know, "You're an easy target."

And I think that was leading up into the debate that was, you know, two versus one, and Governor Newsom still dominated.

- But Adam, could that ad gin up the women's vote?

Could more women come out after seeing an ad like that in November of next year?

- Theoretically.

But both Kevin and I fight something generally late in the political cycle.

It's what I call the white noise effect.

So you take that kind of commercial and 100 others like it where they're basically saying, if this were to happen, it's the end of life as we know it, right?

At some point people get numb, and they start tuning out.

And so I think that the impact of that particular ad in the reality of the campaign, especially if we were to run deep in, late in the campaign, I think would be mitigated by the fact that we're be bombarded by all ends that whoever it is that's being promoted or dissed is gonna be the savior or the scourge of the earth.

And so I'd say this has limited impact.

The issue doesn't.

I mean, the issue of abortion I think is very much gonna still remain a hot-button issue in '24.

- We're gonna see an ad soon that that preys on fear.

But Kevin, what about this idea...

I mean, a lot of ads I'm watching these days prey on people's fear of the future and prey on people's fear of what's going on in the US.

How powerful is the fear motivator?

And does it have a short shelf life, as Adam said?

- Well, I've got books by Will Durant behind me, and one of his quotes was... That's all those red books behind me.

He said, "People vote like they pray, out of hope or fear."

And so you really have to pick one or the other when you're making a political commercial.

I think what Adam was getting at there is true.

It's like, you know, all of these ads, and I would say some of the lesser political consultants or, you know, the easy way to do it is just do black and white and red and, you know, all the kind of gloom and doom.

Very easy to do.

It doesn't cost much money to make.

What is difficult to do is to craft a story, a compelling story that someone will remember and walk away with.

That's why Governor Beshear's ad that we played first was so much different from this ad.

Again, I think that, and Adam probably know it better, 'cause he was in the studio, but it sounded like Governor Newsom's voice was recorded over Zoom.

So I don't think they put a lot of thought into that commercial.

Forgive me, whoever made it.

But that's the difference between the storytelling, what Adam was getting at, and then, you know, just gloom and doom, black-and-white end of the world.

- Let's look at another ad where Ron DeSantis is attacking Nikki Haley over her supposed admiration of Hillary Clinton.

- [Narrator] We know her as crooked Hillary, but to Nikki Haley, she's her role model, the reason she ran for office.

- I often say that the reason I got into politics was because of Hillary Clinton.

She said, "And that's the reason you absolutely have to," and I walked out of there, and I said, "I'm running for office."

Hillary Clinton is actually the reason.

- You write about her being a big inspiration for you in terms of a leader.

- She is actually the reason that I made the jump.

(Hillary laughs) - So factcheck.org says the ad uses clips that were edited to omit parts of those interviews where Haley says she does not agree with Clinton on anything, and she's on record as saying she does not agree with Clinton ideologically speaking.

So Adam, how do we defend ourselves against ads that are edited or in the future, you know, artificial intelligence?

- Well, I'm glad you brought in artificial intelligence.

It's the new player in all of this, right, where we now have already seen ads.

I think a group supporting the former President Trump ran an ad with AI images as did the DeSantis Super PAC, you know, against Biden, I think President Biden.

I'm not sure how we're gonna control that yet.

There are a lot of services, technologies coming into play to try to police that, but, you know, selective editing is clearly in play in that.

We have things like PolitiFact, right?

Which was a great idea, by the way, great idea, great tribute to those who founded it.

It doesn't mean anything anymore, of all due respect.

- 'Cause conservatives don't trust it now.

- It just doesn't... Those that don't trust it will basically shout beyond it, and then they're just gonna kind of go away.

It's truth in the eyes of the beholder.

In that particular one, you have to ask, is that credible?

Is it really credible today that Nikki Haley would look you in the eye and say, "Oh, I love Hillary Clinton"?

Of course not.

So I don't think that would withstand the smell test, but it's a conversation starter, and I'm sure it gets a lot of bait on social media.

- So Kevin, this is not the first time that somebody's statements were edited out of context, but how does the public defend itself?

- We only have 30 seconds.

I hate that.

(all laugh) - Listen, this is like telling you that your newscast didn't read the encyclopedia.

Like, obviously, you only have 30 seconds to make a point.

I ran some ads in 2022 on taking somebody's own words about particular issue.

I remember PolitiFact saying, "But you didn't include the 45-minute interview explaining why they're wrong on that issue."

You know, I agree in some sense with Adam as far as a regular voter is concerned, certainly not "Florida This Week" viewers.

They would certainly read the PolitiFact and make their own minds up based on that.

But on this particular ad, you have to remember primary electorate is far different from a general electorate.

And I've run presidential ads as well in some of these early states.

The dynamic is just different.

So there's only so much you can get away with with a voter in New Hampshire because they're gonna see these candidates up close.

They're gonna be engaged.

Iowa, the same thing.

And so, when you're talking about a state like Florida, I mean, you know, Rick Scott can just buy an election.

Whereas when you're in a state that's small and super engaged in the primary process, it's a little bit harder to get away with that.

- Do you agree with Adam that voters have a smell test?

I mean, if something doesn't smell right, they're gonna reject it?

- I used to think that before Donald Trump.

(laughs) I mean, you know, the Republican primary is so angry.

The electorate is so angry and so fearful of the future and anybody who doesn't look or act like them that we're really getting into an era post-truth in the far right and in some cases, you know, the very, very far left of not seeking the truth, just seeking confirmation.

And so if Donald Trump tells you that Ted Cruz's father killed somebody, you're just gonna believe him if you've got a flag outside your house, 'cause it's easier to believe him than to go take that flag out and to admit to your family that you may have been mildly racist and/or whatever else, whatever the other reason you like Donald Trump.

- Do you wanna respond to that?

- Love, hate, fear.

Go to something Kevin said earlier, love, hate, fear, and hope are the four emotions that drive everything in life, right?

Where's the hope and where's the love in any of this messaging that's out there today?

And as professionals, we're always told, we're always led to believe, well, get the good stuff out of the way so we can go right at it.

I'm all for competing in terms of ideas.

I mean, compete with everything you've got, but where is it that love and hope have gone in any of this, which is all about the aspirations we all have as something better tomorrow than we've had today.

And that's nowhere to be found or very hard to find in political advertising.

- Okay, I'm not sure we're gonna match love and hope in this next ad either.

One of the most powerful conservative groups with a ground operation, Americans for Prosperity, which controls millions in dark money, put out this ad last month to attack both Biden and Trump.

- [Narrator] America, we must do better.

Families hurting, costs rising, debt piling up.

Joe Biden and Donald Trump had their chance.

They can't fix what's broken.

America, with the right leaders, we faced adversity and risen to victory.

Now it's our time to turn the page and choose a new leader who will unite our party, our nation.

That proven leader, Nikki Haley, a true fiscal conservative.

- Is it possible at this point, Adam, to convince Republican voters to turn away from Trump and go to Haley?

I mean, that was aimed towards, really, Republican voters.

- First of all, it was very clever ad 'cause you were thinking, "Okay, who's the independent they're talking about?"

And suddenly it's Nikki Haley, right?

She's got a tough road to hoe.

I think she clearly is on the ascendancy in the primary.

But you know, to make up a 30-point gap or more against Donald Trump is hard to see unless, you know, a hand reaches down from above or in a court of law and does something to subvert what seems to be a given trajectory.

But that ad is all about the frustration a lot of people have, which is this.

You mean these are the choices we have?

We're gonna have the same choice we had in 2020, an octogenarian who seems to be kind of losing his steam and someone like Donald Trump, who, love him or hate him, you know he's gonna do things, and a lot of the things he's gonna do are gonna be controversial.

This is a reflection on us.

And that was a brilliant way of kind of tying in to the frustration many Americans have that we don't like either A or B.

- Kevin, what do you think about that AFP ad?

Is it likely to move any votes?

- I mean, we're allowed to have differing opinions here.

I got super bored during that ad.

I was like glossed over.

It looked like every single ad I've ever seen.

There was no story to be told.

I think Nikki Haley probably has a powerful story to tell.

I don't know that AFP is the outlet to do it and if there's enough oxygen in the room with the brain-dead megaphone kind of ruling the conversation at all times.

So, you know, I'm not looking for any kind of miracle out of the Haley campaign or with this endorsement, that really all this does is put another nail in the coffin of Ron DeSantis' incredibly failed campaign.

- Let's look at another ad.

This is from US Senator Rick Scott, who's running for reelection in 2024.

He's bringing up the ghost of Ronald Reagan.

- If Ronald Reagan were here right now, he would say, "What in the hell have you guys done to my great country?

Crime is rampant and goes unpunished.

Our border is wide open for criminals and drugs that kill our people.

Our debt is 32 trillion and climbing.

Inflation's growing faster than our wages.

There's a land war in Europe.

We don't make things in America anymore.

We buy them from our enemies in China.

We pulled out of Afghanistan like a bunch of cowards.

We don't know what a woman is, and we think men can have babies.

The government pays people not to work and says, "Ah, no one has to pay their loans back."

The game is now rigged against hardworking Americans who still believe in this country.

This is not a fight for the faint of heart.

It's not a fight for the weak.

We are losing our country.

It's time to cowboy up and fight like hell to turn this country around.

- All right, so Adam, what gets me about that ad is that it's no longer Reagan's party.

It is Trump's party, which is very different on issues like China, immigration, free trade.

You can go down the list, but he's invoking Reagan.

- First of all, "You have to cowboy up," talk about great lines.

Love that one.

And by the way, Rick Scott, for all of his assets, isn't known generally as a great performer, you know, on his feet or on television.

He was terrific there, very natural, very real.

But that message, take Reagan out of it, that message is very powerful.

If you test the message, the message I think really resonates.

I think we are really frustrated that we're not getting what we really want.

We're not doing what we really should be doing.

We have the wrong priorities.

I think he kind of really hit the nail on the head there.

Best performance I think I've ever seen from Rick Scott.

But it is something I think America needs to hear more and from more leaders.

- Kevin, I wanna get your take on this ad.

A former Miami area congresswoman, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, the Democrat, is running for the US Senate against Rick Scott.

Here's one of her ads attacking Scott.

- Rick Scott.

- Rick Scott.

- Rick Scott.

- Rick Scott.

- Kevin, what'd you think of that ad?

(Kevin sighs) - I mean, can I say something about the Rick Scott ad?

- Sure.

- 'Cause it's like is every mediocre white person gonna have a podcast now?

Is that what we're doing?

Another thing on the artist and performance side of it, there's a little inside baseball, but I don't ever allow a cut shot of somebody reading a teleprompter.

Rob, you're very great on the teleprompter, but when you do a cut shot, you can see people's eyes moving.

So it was really annoying for me to watch Rick Scott's eyes move on the teleprompter on that.

As far as the attack ad against Rick Scott, I worked for Alex Sink, who I know is a friend of the show.

You know, she attempted to run on Medicare fraud and all of the horrible history that everybody knows.

Didn't work.

I don't know that it's gonna work without a ton of money and a real message and story.

- And she does not have a ton of money like Rick Scott does.

Adam Goodman, Kevin Cate, thank you so much.

Thank you for being on the program.

- Thank you.

- Send us your comments at FTW@wedu.org and like us on Facebook.

You can view this and past shows online at wedu.org or on the PBS app.

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You can download it wherever you get your podcasts.

And from all of us here at WEDU, have a great weekend.

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