- Hi, I'm Mitch Kokai, filling in for Marc Rotterman.

Coming up on "Front Row," the Supreme Court takes up a North Carolina redistricting case.

North Carolina's House and Senate choose leaders for the next legislative session and new data on North Carolina students reading skills next.

[dramatic music] - [Narrator] Major funding for "Front Row" with Marc Rotterman is provided by Robert L. Luddy.

Additional funding provided by Patricia and Koo Yuen through the Yuen Foundation committed to bridging cultural differences in our communities and by funding for the Lightning Round provided by Nicholas B. and Lucy Mayo Boddie Foundation, A.E.

Finley Foundation, NC Realtors, Rifenburg Construction, Stefan Gleason.

A complete list of funders can be found at pbsnc.org/frontrow.

[dramatic music] ♪ - Welcome back.

Joining the conversation, Donna King with "The Carolina Journal," Dawn Vaughn of "The News & Observer," Radio Host Nick Craig and Senator Elect, Mary Wills Bode.

Thanks to everyone for joining us.

We're gonna start with a major topic here.

The U.S. Supreme Court hears oral arguments next week in a case that's called Moore v. Harper.

It evolves a dispute over North Carolina's congressional map.

Republican legislative leaders want the Supreme Court to limit state court's ability to throw out the legislature's maps, but some observers fear a ruling favoring Republican legislators could open the door to legal mischief including threats to future presidential elections.

This is a big deal, Donna, isn't.

- It is.

It's a very big deal.

Basically, the justices at the high court will decide if the state court has the authority to reject the maps drawn by the state legislature.

And we're hearing a new term pop up Independent State Legislature Doctrine.

So we're hearing it a new term but really it's been around since powdered wigs.

It's been the Constitution in Article One.

And it says that the state legislatures have the power to determine the time, manner in which elections are held and that's what lawmakers, North Carolina lawmakers in this case so the Moore team are hanging their case on saying, look, this has been in the Constitution for a long time.

Now, there are critics, of course, who say, you know, if that is held up, then, you know, that would give the legislature the opportunity to do something like replace a candidate if they didn't like how a vote turned out or something like that.

Lawmakers say this is in the Constitution and this is not something that the courts can do.

They can't step in and reject our maps.

And one of the reasons that this is starting is because in 2022, the North Carolina Supreme Court appointed Special Masters Judges to draw those maps for 2022, and that will be the only year that those maps are used because we're anticipating new maps being drawn.

- Dawn, you follow the general assembly closely.

This is something that they're really paying attention to, isn't it?

- I think so, and I think that the worries that the Democrats have that the Republicans say no if you just look at the specifics of the case I think of the worries there, of course, because January 6th changed everything.

So it's not as much the specific case as what could mean after it.

And because of just the partisanship in general between all of it, I think that's a factor in everything.

And when the Supreme Court, I mean, they're just hearing, you know, this now, but when they actually do something about it next year, you can kind of predict what each party is what their reaction's going to be, less about the minutia of the case and more what does this mean for me depending on who you're talking to.

- Nick, you work outside the Raleigh bubble.

Do you hear much discussion from people about this case?

Do people even know it's on the radar?

- They do, and it's a huge disservice to the voters of North Carolina.

I mean, it seems like we've constantly, we've been talking about redistricting for the last 12 years.

It never goes away.

There's always a new lawsuit, a new legal battle here.

I think you're eventually gonna get into a position where you start disenfranchising voters.

They don't know what district they live in.

At one side of the road is this district.

Now it's not, now it's this.

Now it's that.

Now there's a new map and now there's the Supreme Court.

It's just, I want a resolution.

Obviously I'd prefer it to stay within the General Assembly as the state law and the guidance indicates it should, but I think at this point voters want a resolution to this one way or the other because it's exhausting that this happens seemingly every single year.

- Now, Mary Wills, this does not affect the state senate districts which are of direct interest to you, but you I'm sure are watching this very closely.

What do you think about this case?

- Sure.

So North Carolina is no stranger to redistricting litigation as mentioned, especially at the federal level.

You know, for me I worked in redistricting for a couple years.

What these cases are really about to me are accountability to the people in power, checks and balances, and making sure the will of the people is heard loudly and clearly.

And when I think about Moore versus Harper and this theory, this doctrine, I'm thinking about Chief Justice Roberts holding in Common Cause v. Rucho.

And he said, you know, and I'm paraphrasing here, but he said, you know, although the federal court system is closed to issues of partisan gerrymandering, these concerns do not echo into a void.

And he went on to talk about all the ways, and the avenues and the tools that we, the people, have to hold power accountable at the state level.

And I think the concern here in North Carolina is that if the State Supreme Court is no longer a tool to intervene and hold the legislature accountable, we do not have very many tools left in our toolbox to do that.

Our governor in North Carolina, you know, the veto, he doesn't have veto power for legislative maps here in our state.

And I think that's why all 50 state Supreme Court Justices also wrote an amicus brief expressing their concern.

So this is certainly something we'll be watching and listening next Tuesday.

- Yeah, a very big case and I'm sure we'll be talking more about it.

Probably a decision to come down near the end of the Supreme Court's term so sometime next June.

Let's go ahead and switch gears.

North Carolina's 2022 election officially ended this week with the certification of election results, but some people are already looking ahead to 2024.

In North Carolina the marquee matchup involves the governor's office.

Current Governor Roy Cooper cannot seek a third term and this means the job will be open.

Elective center group called Carolina Forward recently issued a poll about top Democratic and Republican contenders for that open governor's race.

Dawn, when you looked at that, what did you find interesting in this poll?

- A lot of it is the names that have already been floated out there.

No one's gonna say it officially yet.

You know, Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson has come as close as he possibly can to say he is going to run without saying it.

Attorney General Josh Stein has been the heir apparent to Cooper for years now.

Still won't say anything yet so.

I think that the numbers are interesting, depending on who you're surveying.

if it's Carolina Forward, or are they just surveying mostly Democrats or those that follow them.

And depending on the poll, we all know that sometimes polls are great and sometimes they're terrible at really telling you what people want.

So I think we're probably looking at a Stein/Robinson matchup.

I think them looking at it, the Republicans saying, okay, well Robinson's got the support so maybe we won't run.

Of course Treasurer Falwell is gonna do what he wants to do you know, regardless of polling.

That's kind of his personality, I think.

But the other Democratic names, you know, a lot of the behind the scenes happens that if the party decides Stein is who they want, then people will back off.

We've seen that before in other big races.

Or maybe because it wasn't as high in that poll that maybe other Democrats thought, they're gonna say, well, maybe I have a shot here if I can plead my case to the party, and would wanna be the pick versus Stein, I think.

- Nick, what stood out to you?

- Before that poll, you talked about the election being certified.

There are 2,655 precincts in the state of North Carolina.

They're all independently operated by their county Board of Elections.

There was only four precincts out of over 2,600 that had issues during the election.

That is a phenomenal number.

I know there's questions about elections in other states.

But here in North Carolina, our elections are run really, really well.

So I'm glad that the certification is finally done, and that we can step aside.

The poll, what I found interesting on the Republican side of the aisle, obviously Mark Robinson leading that, but Tom Tills had a surprising amount of support in rural areas, looking at the Carolina Forward poll.

And why that's so interesting to me is that he's been getting a lot of flack from his own party as of late.

Even going back to the election during Cal Cunningham, there was a lot of people that did not want Tom Tillis to be their senator.

So I was surprised to see him, like 10 or 12% in some rural areas.

I thought that was surprising.

But obviously, still Mark Robinson having the advantage there in very, very early political polling.

- Mary Wills, what stood out to you?

- Yeah, sure, so you know, two years in election time is a lifetime.

We've got a long way to go before a lot of these decisions are gonna be made.

So I think the value of this poll right now is we're gonna be able to track kinda the pulse and interest level over time.

I'm really thinking about how the national landscape, North Carolina is a swing state.

You know, Trump won North Carolina by less than 74,000, or 75,000 votes.

And so I think we're gonna be getting a lot of national attention.

Folks are gonna be stumping here across the state.

And what we learned in 2020, is those national figures have very long coattails.

So I'm thinking about how the interplay between our top North Caroline race, the governor's race, will play with that national race, and look forward to seeing how that changes over time.

- I wonder what Tills thought of the poll, and if that would kind of change.

Like people have talked as, you know, maybe Tills isn't interested in this.

Being a US Senator is a pretty comfortable spot.

Why would you wanna be governor in a state that doesn't give the governor a lot of power?

But also, it depends on how do you wanna spend the rest of your political career.

And if it's a way of coming home, and that's something he'd be interested in.

And Tillis probably could give Robinson a run for his money in the primary.

- It'll be interesting, Donna.

- Well, the primary really is the thing.

You know, Republicans tend to have broader, much more expensive primaries than Democrats, at least here in North Carolina.

Democrats here are pretty good about clearing the field so that they don't spend a lot of money in the primary.

But you know, Robinson has a clear advantage in this case.

The Democrats were a little more split.

I thought it was interesting to see Mandy Cohen's name pop up and that would be- - The three Ws lady.

- Right, yeah, exactly.

Well, and she has a ton of name recognition.

But whether that's a plus or a minus is gonna be the big question because her face, like it or not, became the face of all the shutdowns.

So whether she can turn that into a success.

But either way, I think it is interesting, and still of course, very early, to see all of the these names coming up.

And 44-44 split over Biden and Trump in this particular poll.

- And as was mentioned, a lot of time between now and the 2024 election.

Let's go ahead and switch gears.

State legislators are not expected back in Raleigh before the New Year.

But members of both the State House and Senate have selected leaders for the new session that starts in January.

Barring some unforeseen development, Representative Tim Moore will serve a record-breaking fifth term as House Speaker.

And Senator Phil Berger will serve a seventh term leading his chamber.

Democrats have selected Senator Dan Blue again to lead their caucus.

And House Democrats will vote on leadership positions next week.

Nick, looking at some of the same figures there in the lead.

Do you think we're probably gonna see sort of the same policies now?

- Well, I think you're gonna see a lot of the same policies.

The last general assembly session was very successful for people of North Carolina.

Take partisanship out of it for a minute.

It was a very successful legislative session.

There was a lot of bills signed in law.

There was also a lot of vetos, which you can argue whether it should have been vetoed or not.

But nevertheless, it's still government working, doing something which I would tend is better than not.

So I think you're gonna see- - Are you saying Congress?

Are you saying, we're looking at you, Congress?

- I'm not saying.

I wouldn't make such a terrible comment like that, Mitch.

So I think you're gonna see a lot of the same.

But there's a lot of bills that didn't go forward this one.

And I picked out one out specifically, House Bill 805, which came forward during the riots of 2020, in which you had large protests that unfortunately turned into complete and total civil disobedience in many cities across the State.

House Bill 805 would've given people that were accused of doing these things, throwing mortars and bricks and rocks at law enforcement officers, would have put them in a position where they would've potentially had to deal with some more civil penalties.

As this was sponsored by Charlie Miller, who is the representative in Brunswick and New Hanover County.

He was on the streets during these protests.

And had a mortar explode right behind him, bottles and rocks thrown at him.

So there's legislation like this that got through the house and the Senate, was then vetoed by Governor Cooper, that I think the Republicans are gonna have a real shot at this time.

- That's gonna be very interesting.

You're going to be joining the Senate now.

And took part in that vote to put Senator Dan Blue in the leadership position again.

What do these developments mean to you, as a newly elected member of the Senate?

- Sure, well, between the four leaders in the legislature in the House and Senate, they have almost 80 years of legislative experience collectively.

You know, I think they're all past the get to know you phase.

And they're settled in to a very mature, collegial relationship.

They know each other's push points, and kind of how one another feel about certain issues.

And certainly working with the governor, that crew has a very, I think Senator Berger said it, collegial working relationship, business-like relationship.

So I think there are a lot of benefits to that.

I think we're gonna continue to see work get done, on behalf of North Carolinians, that's what they expect and what our job is.

And so, you know, the only risk is that, perhaps some of these issues have become entrenched and folks have staked out ground.

But I think that each one of those leaders, have said that they're gonna keep an open mind and look forward to moving the ball forward and continuing the conversation, on some of the things, they didn't quite get over the finish line.

- Donna, what interested you?

- Well, so one of the things is I like seeing, Senator Paul Newton come in as majority leader.

I think that he really showed some leadership, in the last session.

So he'll be taking the helm of the caucus or Republican caucus.

The Senate Republicans have a super majority.

The house is one vote short of a super majority, on that side, I think what we'll see is a continuation, of a lot of what we've seen in since 2010, when Republicans took control of the chamber, after Democrats had it for a century.

I think we'll see a focus on keeping, you know, taxes low maybe even lowering them further, accelerating those triggers perhaps, we may see something like the parents' Bill of Rights, come back up particularly when we saw so many people, either decide not to run again for school boards or you know seeing more conservatives, added to some school boards.

So I think we're seeing more of the same, but maybe an acceleration.

- Dawn, you work a lot at the general assembly, I guess you don't really need to update the Rolodex much.

[everyone giggles] - There are some shifts.

With majority the first thing I thought about, when Senator Newton got it was taxes.

Because if you've ever talked to him and mentioned taxes, his face lights up like at Christmas tree and the Senate has more power this coming session and I cover the budget.

So of course taxes are part of that and Newton wants more tax cuts than the House, Berger wants more tax cuts than the house.

So I feel like that is potentially, something to watch this coming session.

The other thing on the Senate republican leadership side, is that he replaced Kathy Harrington who didn't run again and another prominent woman, Republican, Senator Deanna Ballard lost her primary to Ralph Heiss.

So those are two senators, that are high profile that aren't there anymore.

So that's an update, you know, as far as who's there or not and the shifting leadership, there I assume that Robert Reeves, is going to be democratic leader again, so a lot of it is more of the same.

- Yep, yep, very interesting.

Of course, we'll be talking a lot about the legislature, in the weeks to come.

We'll switch gears now this week offered another reminder, that North Carolina still falls short, when it comes to ensuring that public school students, read proficiently by the end of third grade.

It's a goal state lawmakers have been pursuing, for the past decade at least, but a presentation to a legislative committee, showed just 47% of third graders, reaching that goal last year.

One legislator even tried to pin state education officials, down on a date when the state can expect proficiency, to be 95% or more as an incoming member of the legislature, I'm sure that number has to be disappointing.

- Sure, you know, making sure our children in North Carolina, are well educated is non-negotiable.

And I think that is, you know, on both sides of the aisle, we all feel that way.

One thing that I think is missing from the conversation, a little bit is investing in early childhood education.

So making sure that those children, when they do get into kindergarten are activated, engaged and ready to learn and hit the ground running, to meet their full potential.

North Carolina used to be a big leader, in a champion in past decades on early childhood education and I think whether you wanna talk about it, from a scientific perspective or a return on investment, you know, investing early in children, is something that really does pay off in the long run.

So I would love to see the legislature focus on that, to kind of help this process as we move forward.

And I think also too, you know, many parents have had to leave the workforce, in the pandemic and daycare and childcare infrastructure, is broken and so I think that could be a way to kind of, to help parents and also help children get in there and really be ready when they hit kindergarten.

- Sounds like you're ready to talk about that, when you get to the legislative building.

Donna, your thoughts?

- I completely agree.

The poll out this week said that 64% of voters, said that education is going to be a key issue, when they walk into the bowl, the voting booth in 2024.

And I don't think that's gonna change between now and then, even though it is, you know, two years ahead.

But one of the things that I noticed, is that in those reading numbers that we've gotten back, is that the margins of growth are really not as good, for those first and second graders.

And I think that speaks to them not getting, a real benefit in kindergarten online.

I mean, you just can't do it.

And we're seeing now the results, the damage done, by those school shutdowns, but truthfully, I'm worried about those high school students too, because they've got huge holes, in what they are taking with them to college or into career training.

So I think across the board, we really need to be focused on that.

And congratulations to the teachers in this, because this shows how hard it is, to bring these kids up to speed.

- Dawn, you've heard legislators talking about this, for a long time, I'm guessing they're still gonna be, working on this.

- I think that educator pay and just education funding in general that, you know, Leandro is obviously a partisan issue, but even things like early childhood education, birth to five is like so significant with, you know, how you do in school once you get to kindergarten and then whether or not that was in person or not or you know, the gaps that you have, the learning loss, from that I think will carry through for several years, with all of this.

And I think education might be the biggest topic, of the session, certainly one that'll, be part of variety of bills and as everything leads to the budget too.

- Yeah, Nick, your thoughts.

- I mean, huge shakeups in board of elections, or board of educations this last election.

So there's obviously something there, that parents or guardians or grandparents, are concerned with.

- Especially in your area.

- Yeah, completely get a sweep in New Hanover County, four Republicans out seating two Democrats and taking control of that board.

And a similar notion across the state as well.

Donna mentioned something interesting, though about learning loss.

You know, when you're talking about a first, second or third grader, you at least have some time to rectify that loss.

If you're a junior in high school and you've lost two or three years of education.

- [Donna] Right.

- You don't have three more years of education, to use it to build up, but it's gonna come down, to having to retool the school system in some way, to build up from this learning loss and really have to batten down the hatches, for the next couple of years.

It's gonna be intense, it's gonna be a lot of work, but it's gotta be done because this learning loss, has to be made up or what now you're talking about retooling.

Colleges and everything else and then the workforce, it has huge ramifications.

- Well, all of these are very important topics, but we also want to give the viewers a chance, to hear about other things that they should know, during the course of the week.

And I'm gonna start with Donna.

What else should we know about what's happening?

- Okay so in the new year, I'm personally kind of excited the.

- Income tax, personal income tax, is gonna fall to 4.75 from 4.99.

There's the triggers, it's economic growth.

And then we may see that drop even more because of some of the priorities of the incoming folks.

Remember about a decade ago, we were at 7.7 in personal income tax, so there's been a tremendous drop over the last decade.

Corporate tax triggers are due to kick in too, so those will drop again.

By 2027, we're supposed to be at a 3.99 corporate income tax.

And I think that's.

- Personal income tax.

- Right, yes, and I think oh, 2.5.

It's gonna go down to 2.25 in 2025.

So I think all of that said, I think that this legislature is moving toward maybe even accelerating and lowering taxes further.

- Dawn, I know you're interested in new laws.

- Yeah, so there are 10 new laws, took effect this past week as of December 1st.

Not everything in the bill, as I was reading through pages and pages of bills.

So this starts October 1st, this starts December 1st, just to make it complicated.

But two that stood out to me were related to domestic violence.

And one was expanding the state's DNA database when somebody with various domestic violence and assault convictions, and just to add to that, which is a good thing to have.

And then the other is this sort of stop-gap measure with protective orders, and being able to have an interim order if one expires before it, before it is able to be renewed.

And one of the lawmakers received an award for it, for following this, I believe it was Davis, Ted Davis.

And those are small things that maybe didn't get a lot of attention when the bills were passed, but once they go into effect, you know, impact a lot of people's lives, you know, for a long time.

- You mentioned several new laws.

- Yes.

- And you were also interested in a new law.

- We love new laws.

Senate Bill 766 deals with organized retail crime.

We've all seen these videos, predominantly on the West Coast and in places like New York City, of swarms of people breaking into stores and just clearing it out completely.

You've got stores in New York City, out in Portland, Oregon, San Francisco, LA, that have closed their doors completely because they cannot handle this organized retail theft.

This new law in North Carolina puts some additional penalties on people to hopefully curtail some of this stuff from happening, because a lot of the times, Mitch, it's small mom and pop owned businesses that are getting cleared out, not multinational corporations, mom and pop businesses that are getting ravaged.

- Sure, and in January that online marketplace faces a few more restrictions, where they have to really know who's selling.

If they're selling over $2,500 or something like that, the online marketplace has to know who's selling it.

And that's part of this online retail theft bill.

- Mary Wills, I know one of the things you wanted to talk about was something you had heard a lot on the campaign trail.

- Sure.

So I ran in the only urban, suburban, rural senate seat in North Carolina.

It was a third Democrat, a third Republican, and a third unaffiliated.

So I really had the benefit of hearing from, you know, a wide cadre of people on what was top of mind, whether it be when I was doing a ride-along with the sheriff, or in the school system, or specifically, out at the polls during early vote.

And what struck me was how concerned people are about mental health, about our children, our teenagers, adults, the elderly.

And so I'm really eager to get to work in the North Carolina State Senate to really roll up sleeves and figure out what we can do to help provide resources across the board to folks.

Because we've mentioned the pandemic.

We all know that it had an effect on mental health and would really like to see some progress made in that arena.

- Our time is running short, but as someone who's new to the legislature, have you already staked out who I need to talk to, who I need to have on board to help me with these things?

- Certainly I've been meeting a lot of new people.

I, you know, a big part of when I was campaigning, I told people, and this is true, this is not just a talking point, it's an action item for me, that I will work with anyone who wants to work in good faith for the people of North Carolina.

And so I was at orientation this week and got to meet a lot of my new colleagues, and it was great.

We all, you know, we were all coming from different parts of the state, and we all bring different expertise and perspectives, and I think we're all ready to get to work.

- Yeah, it's certainly going to be interesting.

That'll be a session that'll crank up again in January.

One of the new members in the state senate will be Mary Wills Bode, and we wanna thank her.

And Nick and Dawn and Donna, all the panelists.

We wanna thank you for watching, and we'll see you next week on Front Row.

[dramatic music] ♪ - [Speaker] Major funding for Front Row with Marc Rotterman is provided by Robert L Luddy.

Additional funding provided by Patricia and Koo Yuen through the Yuen Foundation, committed to bridging cultural differences in our communities.

And by.

[powerful music] Funding for the Lightning Round provided by Nicholas B and Lucy Mayo Boddie Foundation, AE Finley Foundation, NC Realtors, Rifenburg Construction, Stefan Gleason.

A complete list of funders can be found at pbsnc.org/frontrow.

[dramatic music] ♪