- Hi, I'm Donna King, filling in for Marc Rotterman.

Coming up on Front Row, the November election results are here.

And what do they mean?

What can we expect from 2024?

It's a little inside baseball this week, with strategist Jim Blaine and Morgan Jackson on Front Row.

Next.

♪ ♪ And by: ♪ ♪ A complete list of funders can be found at pbsnc.org/frontrow.

♪ ♪ - Welcome back.

Joining me today, Mitch Kokai from the John Locke Foundation, Democrat strategist Morgan Jackson, and Republican strategist, Jim Blaine.

Thanks so much for being here.

We appreciate having you here on Front Row.

I'm looking forward to this conversation.

I think it really gives us a good sense of what we can expect in 2024 for sure.

First, let's talk about 2022 though.

The elections in November.

What were some of your key takeaways, Morgan, we'll start with you.

Tell me what your thoughts were about what we saw happen in November.

- So, you know, I thought 2022 was a fascinating cycle.

It was one that ended up very differently than it began in a lot of places around the country.

For much of 2022 there was a discussion of a major red wave that was gonna come.

And listen, I think even polling, internal polling that we had on the Democratic side a week before the election predicted a different result than we saw in a lot of places.

It was interesting, I think Roe v. Wade had a tremendous impact, and reshaped the electorate around the country in a major way.

Also think that one of the, one of the reasons Democrats did a little bit better in some places is because Republicans nominated candidates in the primary that were not good for general election.

They were strong primary candidates, but were ultimately seen as two extreme in the general election.

I think North Carolina suffered, North Carolina didn't, didn't follow that mold as far as doing, Democrats doing better nationally.

And we saw that because the lack of investment nationally in the US Senate race here, we ultimately had one of the sleepiest US Senate races in the country.

And that accrued to Republicans benefit and I think it helped 'em up and down the ticket in North Carolina.

And that was largely due, listen, I think Cheri Beasley ran a good campaign, but when you get outspent and the National Democrats don't come and help you, it end, it ends up hurting turnout, and that's what we saw in North Carolina.

- Sure.

Jim, what are your thoughts?

- I generally agree with Morgan, Donna.

I think the key point that Morgan made that I want to emphasize though is I think Republicans in North Carolina did a really good job of nominating good candidates.

And where they had good candidates, they benefited from, not a red tsunami, like some folks were expecting, but definitely a high tide for the Republicans and I think Ted Budd proved to be a pretty good candidate.

There's a reason the race was sleepy.

Both of the candidates were pretty good folks who didn't really have any personal problems.

And that kind of allowed Budd to take advantage of the slightly Republican generic environment and win.

I think in the legislative races, unlike in some other states, Republicans generally nominated pretty good candidates, where they had good candidates they won, where they didn't have great candidates, they lost.

And I think that Morgans right, is that the candidate quality nationally, played a huge role in the Republicans inability to take advantage of the first midterm of a sitting President, which is usually a pretty good cycle for the out of power party.

- [Donna] Sure.

- So I think that's the big, candidate, I would say candidate quality is the big difference between what happened for Republicans in North Carolina and what happened for Republicans nationally.

- Sure.

Who would you say biggest winner and loser of 2022?

- Well, I'll start out with the biggest winner, and then we can do biggest loser.

I'm gonna say the biggest winner was North Carolina's Constitution.

That old document had been treated like a piece of toilet paper by Anita Earls and the Democrats that controlled the court for the last four years.

I mean, they made Bill Clinton's, you know, difficulty figuring out what "is" meant look like clear thinking as a torturously turned words and clear phrases in the Constitution to get the political outcomes that they want.

So we, I think that they're gonna probably pull that document out of the trash heap that it's been left in by the Democratic Supreme Court.

And I think you're gonna see some strict, constructionist outcomes from the Supreme Court.

Tamara Barringer, who's one of the justices, probably one of the smartest state senator I worked with, when I was in the legislature, unknown to most people.

She wrote a lot of the technical parts to the original tax reform legislation as a freshman senator.

I think there's a really strong group of Republican Justices on that court, and I think they understand the English language and- - [Donna] Sure.

- Will adhere to the true meaning of the words in that document.

So I'm gonna say the Constitution won, is the big winner this year.

- Good, good, good.

What do you think?

Biggest winner or loser?

[group laughs] - I'm just still trying to get over the Constitution, but so I, you know- - You've been trying to get over the Constitution for years.

[group laughing] - It's your president, your President Trump, who wants to throw it in the trash.

[group laughing] - And we're not for that.

[group laughs] - That's good to hear.

- Yeah.

- That's good to hear.

So, you know, I think it's sort of fascinating as we talked about, I mean, I would say biggest winners and, North Carolina was challenging for Democrats.

And so I'll say on my side of the aisle nationally, listen, you got Democratic governors picked up three governorships across the country.

That is a big deal in a year, as Jim said, he's right.

This was not supposed to be a year that Democrats won big races.

Not only picked up three seats, three governorships across the country, from Republicans, but picked up a US Senate seat, in a year that we, that's the first time in, I think 70 years, or 30, 40 years that you've had a midterm where the party in power has gained seats in US Senate.

So I think that's a big deal.

I talked about losing in North Carolina and I think part of it is, the big losing in North Carolina for Democrats was the fact, the lack of investment in the Senate race.

And I think the, as I mentioned earlier, Cheri Beasley being outspent was actually, folks think we had a big Senate race in North Carolina, but we didn't.

It actually, by the numbers was really small, but the margin of being outspent in North Carolina, Cheri Beasley was outspent by more money than any competitive Democrat across the country.

And that had a huge impact on, as I said, all races up and down the ballot.

I would say biggest, the last one I'll make is the, I think we can talk about, is the congressional race, the Wiley Nickel, Bow Hines, congressional race.

I think that was a huge surprise.

I think Wiley Nickel ran a phenomenal campaign, arguably the best campaign of the cycle against a weaker Republican opponent.

And I think this, one of the things that we talked about is nominating a weaker opponent.

I think there were a couple of folks in the primary that would've been stronger, but you gotta give Nickel credit, he ran an incredible race that given North Carolina's trend this year, he shouldn't have won that race, y'all.

- [Donna] Right.

- But he did.

And, and it was due to how strong of a campaign he ran.

- [Donna] Sure.

- Yeah, nobody's quite figured out who this advertised Wiley Nickel is, that everybody saw on TV and voted for.

It didn't really match up with the man we saw in the legislature.

- Right, right.

What are your thoughts?

- Well Morgan's already thrown in a surprise, and so we'll start with Jim this time, and if there was a big surprise that you wanted to point out, but I also, you have already touched on the Supreme Court elections, State Supreme Court.

We also saw Republicans swept the Court of Appeals races.

Just how important, and this is for both of you, and we'll start with Jim, and you can talk about big surprises, but just how important are these judicial races in general, for the way our state government operates?

- So I'll tackle biggest surprise first Mitch.

And I'm gonna combine biggest surprise with the biggest loser question.

I think the biggest loser and the biggest surprise has to go to Pat McCrory.

Pat McCrory started out the US Senate race ahead of Ted Budd, 60 to 10, by 50 points.

He ended up losing the race basically 55 25, by 30 points.

So he had a 90 point swing against an incumbent, a former, well the only one term governor in state history.

He was the only governor to ever lose a reelection bid.

But, I think, McCrory's gotta be the biggest loser of the cycle and the biggest surprise.

It's almost like the, we found out the emperor has no clothes.

- I think we knew that though.

[group laughs] - Well you have argued that since the 2016 election.

But I think Republican primary voters figured that out.

I think the way McCrory's kind of handled himself and operated over the years, you know, not a single legislator endorsed his campaign for Senate.

You saw a congressman that it was at 10% just elevate right past him and win every single county in the state except for Mecklenburg, which he almost won.

So I think the biggest surprise was how badly Pat McCrory got beaten and I think that makes him the biggest loser of the cycle too.

- Interesting.

- Yeah.

Then the second part of this was the importance of the judicial elections.

You already talked about the Constitution, but just how important is that?

And we'll get you and Morgan on that.

- Well, Republicans have always said, all we need the justices and the courts in North Carolina to do is read the words of the Constitution and for them to mean what they say.

And I think we have some people, like I said, that understand the English language and are pretty smart, and they're gonna follow the words in the Constitution.

And I think the citizens of the state will be better off for that.

And all these good laws that Republicans have passed that you've seen torturously overturned by activist liberal judges will stand up to scrutiny when the law is fairly applied.

- I think, let me actually- - You wanna bifurcate that one?

- Yeah.

Let me underscore that a little bit.

I think what Jim was trying to say is, is what the Republicans in General Assembly want is justices who will agree with them, that the laws they passed are constitutional.

That is basically what they want.

Listen, I think this is a huge deal and it may have a tremendous impact on public policy.

I think everything from abortion access, marriage equality, education funding, gerrymandering, these are all issues that have come before the Supreme Court and been decided by the Supreme Court, whether it's the last two years, or the last ten years.

And I think the real question that public policy experts and lawyers are look at is, is this Supreme Court moving forward, gonna respect precedent of the past?

Or are they gonna rewrite history from the bench moving forward?

And I think that's the big question folks are gonna be looking for in the next year, and two years, three years, as this court takes shape.

- Sure.

And as we talk about policy, a lot of our new congressional delegation, everybody came from the state legislature, so that may mean they take some of those policy ideals with them.

How do you think that that experience in the general assembly will translate on Capitol Hill and will we see a shift in, or a focus in policy.

Either of you.

- Well, I, I've said for years Donna, North Carolina's congressional maps are like toilet paper.

They're good for one use only.

And these maps that were run on last time are out the door already.

We're gonna have new maps.

I wouldn't, if I were any of the new congressmen, I wouldn't get too comfortable or buy a place in Washington, based on previous history.

So I don't, you know, I kind of view this as kind of an interim congressional delegation.

I suspect we'll see pretty dramatic changes to the map, - [Donna] Sure.

- This year, and that'll have pretty big change in the makeup of the delegation is my suspicion.

- Right, right- - So I'm not investing too terribly much time- - Okay.

- In trying to decipher what, what I suspect as a group of one term congressman will be up to.

- You know, I think one of the things that is, I don't disagree on the congressional map, obviously I think it'll be different.

I think ultimately courts will have a say whether or not a currently seven seven map in a 50 50 state versus what I think Republicans are planning to draw eleven three Republican map- - How about twelve two?

That's what I keep hearing.

- I, you know, I think, I think if they could get twelve two, I think if they could get fourteen zero they would.

But you know, it's fascinating.

It is clear the state senate this cycle and has been for several years.

If you want to go to Congress, go the state Senate first.

It seems to be the, it seems to be the easiest path for it.

I mean five new members of Congress and all five of 'em are current members of the North Carolina State Senate, on both sides of the aisle, it's pretty fascinating.

- [Donna] Right.

- You know, we had seen the Senate, the Senate for years, has been a breeding ground.

Roy Cooper was a senator.

- [Donna] Sure.

Attorney General Josh Stein was a state senator, former Governor Bev Perdue.

You've had Janet Cowell, the state treasurer.

For years you've had all of these state senators moving up and- - [Donna] Sure.

- It's just sort of fascinating to see it continues to hold.

- Right, right.

- Let's talk a little bit about the legislature because we've alluded to them a little bit now.

So we have a state senate that has 30 Republicans veto proof, super majority, 71 Republicans in the State House, one short of a veto proof, super majority.

What sort of impact does that have on the politics of how these two chambers are going to move forward?

Let's start this time with Morgan.

What do you think is gonna be the impact of 30 Republicans in the Senate, 71 in the House, and how things get done and how Governor Roy Cooper plays a role?

- Sure.

Listen, I think first of all is that, it certainly will have a more conservative bid.

I think the governor having both chambers not in super majorities for the last two years, has kept the Republicans legislature from their worst impulses by either vetoing legislation or, and not being overridden, or them saying, we can't pass it telling, and, and listen, I think some of this is not always the leadership.

Some of it is the further, the further sort of right wing of the caucus who wants to go down a road that, I think even sometimes the leadership doesn't want to go.

But, but I think, listen it, it was a big deal, to hold off super majority in the house.

And I think ultimately that keeps Governor Cooper's veto at the table.

I think there are gonna be real negotiations.

Listen, the good thing for North Carolinians, divided government has worked.

We've had good budgets the last two cycles that have been signed, we are making progress on a number of issues bipartisanly, I'm sure we'll talk about Medicaid expansion today, but that is one of the big things coming this session that Democrats and Republicans both agree on.

It's a matter of getting together and figuring out how to get it done.

- Sure.

Well my runner up for biggest loser was Robert Reeves, the minority leader in the State House.

I mean I really feel terrible for him, with 71 Republicans.

Reeves has to keep every single Democrat in line.

He has to make sure they show up, he has to know where they are.

I think there's gonna be incredible amount of pressure on Representative Reeves from these guys to, you know, make sure his troops are in line, and the house is a hard place to, to keep the troops in line, on both sides over the years, it's been a very free wheeling chamber.

You know, a lot of the members willing to make their own deals.

My suspicion is that Speaker Moore probably has a governing super majority with the current delegation that on most issues, he'll be able to find a Democrat to go with him.

I think that'll undermine Governor Cooper's negotiating position to some extent.

Obviously I think the Republicans would've preferred to have a super majority in both chambers and be able to go about their business.

But my suspicion is Moore, who's been pretty adept at handling the Democrats in the House, will be able to find different members on different issues to work with him.

So- - Sure - That would be my main point about how the, I think the legislature is gonna operate.

- [Donna] Interesting.

- This go round.

- So let's move on to 2024.

I wanna make sure we talk a little bit about that.

Jim, you had a poll recently that looked at the Republican primary.

I thought it was fascinating.

Tell me what you found, and how do you think this will play out for North Carolina?

- So shameless personal pitch, we started a polling company, as part of our differentiators data business.

And so we did this poll to get a little attention.

It's been successful, in getting this attention.

So we did a Republican primary survey, released it earlier this week, the presidential results, and the gubernatorial results today.

And the interesting thing, very interesting to me, Ron DeSantis was beating Donald Trump by 20 points in the, in our primary survey.

I was surprised when I saw that result.

Actually a little concerned about it.

But then subsequently we saw Wall Street Journal, USA Today National Poll come out, that mirrored that result.

And I think Trump's appeal in the Republican party more than anything else, has been that he is a winner.

And after getting kicked around by Obama for eight years more than anything, Republicans just wanted somebody that would fight and win, and Trump did that.

But he brings a lot of baggage with him.

You know, the aforementioned suspend the constitution comment from earlier this week, which we actually polled, and Republican primary voters overwhelmingly disagreed that we should suspend the Constitution and rerun the 2020 general election.

They were not in favor of that at all.

[group laughing] But, I think once he lost, and then once they saw a lot of his candidates lose Senate races this cycle, and I mean, a lot of his handpicked folks, I think at that point in time, Republican primary voters are relatively pragmatic people.

They want to beat Biden.

And I think that they've come to realize that Trump's probably not the best option to do that, and they're not willing to put up with all the things that come with Trump if he is not winning.

- Interesting.

- Yeah.

So let's also talk about the fact that Governor Cooper has had some national publicity as potentially being someone on a democratic ticket.

You have some of the inside knowledge, Morgan, what's gonna be next for Governor Cooper?

He certainly has two more years in office, but only two years.

He can't run for a third consecutive term.

- I don't know- - Thank God.

I feel like the General Assembly's been thinking, that's one of the things they're thinking about changing is letting the governor run for a third and fourth term.

I think that's one thing the Republicans would like to have in North Carolina.

So, you know, listen, I think it's, Governor Cooper's done a good job and because that he was, he was elected, and reelected in a state that Donald Trump won twice, the only Democrat in the country who has won two elections at the same time Trump was winning in the same state.

So naturally he's getting a lot of national interest from folks that said, wait a minute, there's a lot of good things going on.

His chairmanship of the Democratic Governor Association went really well, as I mentioned earlier, picking up seats around the country.

So there's a lot of talk about Cooper nationally.

I will tell you the Governor's been very clear.

He supports President Biden, he intends to work hard to get him reelected in 2024, I believe Biden is running again.

But in the Governor's focus in North Carolina, he's focused on getting Medicaid expansion passed.

He's focused on strengthening our public schools and a number of things he's focused in North Carolina on.

So that's, that's where his focus is.

He's committed to Biden, he's gonna help him.

It's nice to get national attention in accolades, but he's focused here at home.

- Jim, do you think Cooper's gonna be on a national ticket?

- Oh, it's a, I hope we never see Governor Cooper on the ticket in North Carolina again.

He's been a formidable and successful opponent of Republicans over the years.

And I'm hoping this is the end of the line.

My suspicion is though, that we may see him in a 2026 Senate race.

Especially if Biden loses his reelection campaign.

I think Morgan would like a chance to make some big, big, big money and run a US Senate campaign.

- Here's the thing I'll tell you about Roy Cooper- - I don't think, I don't- - He's not done.

He's not done.

He's got a lot left to do y'all.

- I don't think Cooper's trying to nudge Kamala Harris out of the VP role though.

I mean, despite some rumors to the contrary in the Atlantic.

- Sure, sure.

So, 2024 though, we'll also have a governor's race.

You know, that's a big deal.

Everybody's talking about it.

It looks like Josh Dunn, Mark Robinson, might be moving in as front runners, but we've got a long way to go.

You know, tell me, tell me what your thoughts are, Jim.

You wanna start with you?

- So we, the forementioned poll we did, Mark Robinson has spent the last two years winning the Republican primary.

I mean, we tested him against Pat McCrory who was beaten him by 40 points.

Mark Walker, who is thinking about running, has beating him by 50 points.

Dale Folwell, who's thinking about running, has beating him by 55 points.

Robinson's name identification and name awareness with the Republican primary votes, is an insurmountable obstacle to any challenger right now.

It would take 10 million dollars just to get to where he is, to catch him, much less beat him.

So he's gonna be the Republican nominee.

I think the big question for Robinson and his team now is whether or not they can pivot from that very successful two year run of winning the Republican nomination.

They have put it away.

Now the question is can he pivot, and become a general election candidate?

And he has the opportunity to do that now 'cause he's won the primary.

On the Democratic side, I'll let Morgan speak to this.

I think Stein's the favorite, coming outta the gate, but there's been a lot of rumbling that maybe, you know, they'd like to see a person of color nominated, a woman.

Heard a lot of angst on the Democratic side about whether or not Stein can, can beat Robinson.

And so I'm curious whether or not you think he'll end up with the primary.

- So here's what I'd say.

I think there's no question that Attorney General Stein has the inside track to the nomination.

Not only has he shown an ability to win really tough cycles, I talked about Governor Cooper winning twice.

Attorney General Stein won twice at the same time Trump was winning, one of the only Democrats in the state to do that, as Jim just mentioned, as far as, he's a fundraising juggernaut, you know, most people don't realize, but he raised more money in 2020 than any attorney general candidate in the history of this country, in an election cycle.

That's what it takes to win governor's races is you have, these are 50, 60 million affairs, very expensive.

Stein has the inside track with primary voters.

He is well liked, has a lot of support from party leaders, elected officials, and others.

I think he will be the nominee and I, you know, whether or not he has a substantive primary, nominal primary, I think he's got the inside track to win this, just as I think Robertson does as well.

The real question is on Robinson, do people like Tom Tillis say, hey, Robinson can't win the general election.

Do I have to try to step in and stop that from happening?

I'll tell you one thing we, talked a lot- - I've seen a few squirrels try and stop cars over the years.

- Yeah, listen, I don't disagree with your analysis of it.

- And I think Tom Tillis is a lot smarter than a squirrel.

- I don't disagree with your analysis of it.

[group laughs] But I'll tell you, when you look at governor's races around the country, the brand that Mark Robinson has, a divisive rhetoric of loud, of really, really extreme positions, went down in flames in every single competitive governor's race across the country.

Sometimes that works in a US Senate race.

We're, we don't see that, I mean, look at Arizona is a great place where you had, the Republican was like, she's the new star of the Republican party and loses to what, you know, I think the Democratic candidate who won was fine, but was by no means looked at upon as the star that, that the Republican candidate was.

And so I think the question is, Robinson is easy to disqualify with general election voters.

Can he pivot?

Can he change?

We've seen this Trump sort of thought process before.

You don't pivot because you just continue to play for the applause.

And I think that's what Robinson does.

- What do you think?

- Well, I was gonna ask you both.

So if it is going to be Stein and Robinson, you guys are political consultants, what would you suggest that they do to help win that general election?

Let's start with Jim.

- Well, I think, I think what you have right now is, if that is the setup, Josh Stein's most ideological left person that would've ever been nominated for Governor in North Carolina.

I mean, arguably Robinson is the yin to that yang and is as far right as anybody.

So you're gonna have a pretty big ideological divide.

I think Robinson's challenge, to Morgan's point is, celebrity candidates have not done really well.

He has to show that he is a cerebral candidate and can execute and is not just interested in being a celebrity.

Now my experience with him, is there's a lot of substance to Mark Robinson.

I think he's a far more pragmatic person than the caricature that Morgan tries to paint of him.

And honestly that a lot in the press have tried to paint of him.

I mean, he had WRAL putting a black man in a Klan outfit in an editorial costume two years ago.

I mean, that's how tone deaf some of these people on the left are.

And I don't think Robinson meets the caricature at all.

He has a really interesting, you know, very, you know, bootstrapped himself up.

Personal story.

I think he'll be able to relate to everyday voters.

But I think he's gotta make that pivot.

Now for Stein, I mean, he's gonna have to refute the idea that he's a, you know, Ivy League intellectual, far left liberal from Chapel Hill.

- Let Mike Morgan comment on that.

You're gonna get me at the last minute.

- Yeah.

So seriously, as I say, I think, listen, the Attorney General's done a good job.

He's been tough on crime.

He, voters across North Carolina, like the attorney general profile, he has been a strong advocate for consumers.

He has won over 500 billion dollars, in, or 5 billion dollars bringing money back to the state for consumers on opioids, on going after sex predators and testing rape kits.

I mean, these are all things that matter to people.

I think Robinson, you know, we talk about his caricature, his caricature is created by his own words.

And I think Robinson, the challenge of Robinson is, how do you appeal to women when you criticize them?

How do you appeal to LGBT community when you criticize them?

How do you appeal to all of these different folks when you're attacking them all the time?

- [Donna] Yeah.

- That's hard.

Women make up 54% of the ballot.

I would not go after women.

- 56 some years.

- Yeah this is tough - That's right.

- We have so much we could talk about this.

We could do this all day.

I appreciate both of you being here on Front Row.

That's it for us.

Thank you so much for watching.

We'll see you next week on Front Row.

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ And by: ♪ ♪ ♪ A complete list of funders can be found at pbsnc.org/frontrow.

♪ ♪ ♪