>>> COMING UP NEXT ON ARIZONA HORIZON, HOW PRESIDENT-ELECT TRUMP SUPPOSED TARIFFS WOULD IMPACT ARIZONA'S ECONOMY.

>>> ALSO TONIGHT, A POLITICAL STRATEGIST WILL SURVIVE DEMOCRATS IN THIS YEAR'S ELECTION AND A NEW STUDY LOOKS AT BRAIN INJURIES AND THE LINK WITH ALZHEIMER'S.

THE STORIES AND MORE UP NEXT ON ARIZONA HORIZON.

>>> GOOD EVENING, AND WELCOME TO ARIZONA HORIZON.

I'M TED SIMONS.

PRESIDENT-ELECT TRUMP SAYS HE WILL IMPOSE 25% TARIFFS ON ALL IMPORTS FROM MEXICO AND CANADA ALONG WITH 10% HIGHER TARIFFS ON GOODS FROM CHINA.

THE THREATS ARE SPARK FEARS OF INFLATION AND TRADE WARS ALL OF WHICH WOULD AFFECT ARIZONA.

JOINING US NOW IS ECONOMIST LYLES, PRESIDENT OF ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP, JIM LYLES, ALWAYS A PLEASURE, GOOD TO HAVE YOU HERE.

A 25% TARIFFS ON GOODS FROM MEXICO, ON GOODS FROM CANADA.

WHAT'S GONNA HAPPEN HERE?

IF THIS GOES THROUGH?

>> SURE.

AND YOU HAVE TO EXPLAIN HOW IT WORKS.

SO A TARIFF -- A LOT OF PEOPLE THINK IT'S A TAX ON THE OTHER COUNTRY.

A TARIFF IS A TAX ON THE IMPORTING COMPANY.

SO WE'RE GOING TO SEE THOSE COSTS, EXTRA COSTS PASSED ON TO THE CONSUMER.

THAT'S WHY THEY SAY THAT THE DOMESTIC -- THE LOCAL RESIDENTS ARE GOING TO BE PAYING FOR THE EXTRA COSTS.

NOW, A SMALL PERCENTAGE WILL BE PASSED ON TO THE IMPORTING COMPANY AND THEN A SMALL PERCENTAGE WILL BE PASSED ON TO THE COUNTRY OF ORIGINAL THAN I WE'RE TRYING TO PENALIZE, SO TO SPEAK.

BUT IT'S REALLY A TAX ON OUR PEOPLE, THE RESIDENTS OF THE U.S., AND IT'S A TAX ON TYPICALLY LOWERING INDIVIDUALS AND SMALL BUSINESSES AS WELL.

SO IT DOESN'T SEEM TO MATCH THAT OVERALL GOAL OF LET'S EXPAND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, AND THIS ISN'T COMPLICATED STUFF.

THIS IS LIKE UNDERGRAD LEVEL ECONOMICS.

>> I WAS GOING TO SAY, IT WOULD SEEM TO BE, AND YET, THE PRESIDENT-ELECT SAYS THIS IS THE WAY TO SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF DRUGS AND TO SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF PEOPLE INTO THE UNITED STATES.

I MEAN, WILL MEXICO SEE THESE THREATS AND SAY WE BETTER DO SOMETHING ABOUT THAT?

ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION.

OR CAN THEY DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT AND SAY WE BETTER DO SOMETHING ABOUT WHATEVER IT IS THEY'RE SUPPOSED TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT?

>> WELL, MEXICO -- I THINK THE DISCUSSION WAS THE RESPONSE WOULD BE, WELL, THEY'RE GOING TO IMPOSE A TARIFF.

THEY'RE GOING TO IMPOSE A TARIFF ON THEIR RESIDENTS.

SO IT'S REALLY A BATTLE OF PEOPLE HITTING THEMSELVES ON A HEAD WITH A STICK RATHER THAN HITTING THE OTHER PERSON, WHICH IS VERY UNUSUAL.

BUT THE WAY YOU DO THIS, IS YOU WORK ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT.

WE HAVE A LOT OF BORDER CROSSING ISSUES IN ARIZONA, BETWEEN ARIZONA AND SONORA.

THE BEST WAY TO DEAL WITH THAT IS TO EXPAND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BORDER AND THAT'S WHAT I WANTED TO SEE HAPPEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE DECADE, AND NOW I FEEL LIKE WE'RE TAKING A STEP BACK.

>> WHATEVER HAPPENED TO THAT IDEA OF IMPROVING MEXICO'S ECONOMY AND IMPROVING OPPORTUNITY THERE SO THAT FOLKS DON'T NECESSARILY ALWAYS MIGRATE HERE?

>> AND WE DON'T HAVE TO JUST FOCUS ON IMPROVING MEXICO'S ECONOMY.

IT'S MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL.

THERE'S A LOT OF CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS THAT WE CAN MAKE AT THE PORTS OF ENTRY.

THERE'S THE POTENTIAL OF THE DEEP WATER PORT IN MEXICO THAT WILL BE ADVANTAGEOUS TO ARIZONA DOWN THE ROAD.

THERE'S A LOT OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE BORDER COMMUNITIES, BOTH SIDES OF THE BORDER, AND THEN AS PRODUCTS COME INTO ARIZONA, WE'LL HAVE LOWER COST INPUTS FROM A NEIGHBOR THAT'S A FRIEND, RATHER FROM OVERSEAS, SO IT'S MORE RELIABLE AND WE'LL BE ABLE TO EXPAND OUR HIGH TECH BUSINESSES FURTHER.

THERE'S SO MANY OPPORTUNITIES THAT ARE NOT BEING TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF, WHICH IS A LITTLE DISAPPOINTED.

>> SO THE PRESIDENT-ELECT SAYS FIRST DAY IN OFFICE HE'S GOING TO IMPOSE THESE TARIFFS.

LET'S SAY HE DOES THAT.

IN ARIZONA, WE'LL START WITH ARIZONA, WHICH SECTORS GET HIT THE HARDEST?

>> SO WHERE DO WE IMPORT FROM MEXICO?

THERE'S A LOT OF FOOD PRODUCTS, WE HAVE A LOT OF ELECTRONIC PARTS, WIRING, CAR PARTS... NOW, THOSE ARE GONNA COME HERE, THE FOOD IS JUST GOING TO BE MORE EXPENSIVE, BUT THE OTHER INPUTS TO OTHER THINGS ARE GOING TO CAUSE OTHER PRICES TO GO UP FROM THE DOMESTIC COMPANY, SO THE LOCAL COMPANIES ARE GOING TO HAVE TO RAISE THEIR PRICES TOO.

ONE OF THE CONCERNS, THOUGH, THAT PICTURE BEING IN A FIGHT AND IT'S A HEAVYWEIGHT, THEY CAN TAKE A COUPLE OF HARD PUNCHES AND THAT'S THE BIG COMPANY.

THE LIGHTWEIGHTS ARE INDIVIDUAL STATES AND THE SMALLER BUSINESSES.

YOU CAN'T REALLY TAKE A PUNCH IF YOU'RE A SMALL BUSINESS ON THESE TARIFF ISSUES, YOU MIGHT GO OUT OF BUSINESS.

SO I THINK WE'RE GOING TO SEE PEOPLE IN THE SMALL BUSINESSES MORE HURT AND HERE IN ARIZONA IT COULD BE DISPROPORTIONATELY IMPACTED IN SOME CASES.

SO THAT'S ON THE MEXICO SIDE.

ON THE CANADA SIDE, PEOPLE MAKE JOKES COSTS ARE GOING TO GO UP FOR GAS.

NO, WE GET OIL, PLASTICS, WE GET LUMBER.

WE HAVE AN AFFORDABILITY ISSUE RELATED IN HOUSING ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

DO WE REALLY WANT TO RAISE THE PRICE OF PLASTICS AND LUMBER?

NO.

SO THERE'S SO MANY THINGS THAT ARE CONTRADICTORY TO BASIC ECONOMICS.

IT'S VERY FRUSTRATING, BECAUSE I REALLY THOUGHT IN THE PRESIDENT-ELECT'S SECOND TERM HE WOULD GO FROM A BULL IN THE CHINA SHOP TO THE GRANDPA THAT WALKS AROUND THE BLOCK WITH YOU AND YOU CHAT ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND CLARIFY WHEN IT'S SHOWING SOMETHING WRONG, HE SAYS THAT'S A GOOD POINT, DOESN'T SEEM LIKE WE'RE GOING TO START OUT THAT WAY.

>> AND YET SOME SUPPORTERS SAY DON'T BE JUMPS OFF CLIFFS RIGHT HERE.

THIS IS A NEGOTIATION PLOY.

THIS IS BEING USED AS LEVERAGE AGAINST THESE COUNTRIES, AGAIN, TO KEEP DRUGS OUT, ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION OUT, TO KEEP CHINA FROM DUMPING AND THESE SORTS OF THINGS.

DO THEY HAVE A POINT?

>> WELL, IT GOES BACK TO THAT STICKING SAMPLE AGAIN.

IF I WAS SAYING I WANT TO CONVINCE TO YOU DO SOMETHING, TED, AND HIT MYSELF ON THE HEAD WITH A STICK, WOULD THAT CHANGE YOUR OPINION?

NO.

AND SO WE'RE HURTING OURSELVES, AND WE'RE NOT LEVERAGING IT PROPERLY.

THERE'S DIFFERENT THINGS THAT WE COULD HAVE DONE.

IF WE WOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN ADVANCING OUR ECONOMIC OUTREACH WITH MEXICO, WE COULD HAVE SAID IF YOU'RE NOT GOING TO DO SOMETHING AND WORK ON US WITH THE DRUG ISSUES WE'RE GOING TO PULL BACK A LITTLE BIT.

BUT TAXING U.S.

RESIDENTS, ESSENTIALLY, WHICH IS WHAT IT IS, IT'S POOR MAN'S SALES TAX, THAT'S NOT THE WAY TO DO IT.

>> LET'S GET TO CHINA BECAUSE BEIJING IS ALREADY MAKING NOISE THAT IS IT COULD RESPOND WITH A CURRENCY WAR.

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

>> WELL, THE THERE'S BEEN DISCUSSES, AND I THINK YOU'VE ALREADY SEEN SOME CHANGES IN CANADIAN CURRENCY AND MEXICO CURRENCY COMPARED TO THE U.S. PEOPLE DON'T KNOW EXACTLY HOW THAT'S GONNA PLAY OUT BECAUSE IT'S GOING TO BE DIFFERENT BY INDUSTRY AND BY THE COUNTRY THAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT AND SO THERE'S STILL A LOT OF UNKNOWNS BUT WHAT'S VERY CLEAR IS WHEN YOU HAVE THE PRESIDENT-ELECT SAYING DAY ONE I'M GONNA IMPOSE A 25% TARIFF, AND YOU KNOW THAT THAT'S GONNA GET PASSED ALONG TO LOCAL CONSUMERS, THAT MEANS INFLATION'S GONNA GO UP, AND WHAT'S SO DISAPPOINT SOMETHING WE WAITED SO LONG FOR THE RATE OF INFLATION TO STABILIZE, IT HASN'T GONE DOWN.

IT HASN'T GONE NEGATIVE.

SO OUR PRICES ARE STILL HIGH, WHEN SOMEBODY GOES TO THE GROCERY STORE TO BUY FOOD, THEY DON'T SAY, I WONDER WHAT PERCENTAGE THIS IS.

THEY SAY HOW MUCH IS THIS COST IN TERMS OF DOLLARS AND CENTS.

THEY'RE STILL PAYING HIGH PRICES.

THE GROWTH SLOWED DOWN, AND WE'RE AT THE POINT WHERE WE'RE MAYBE GOING TO SEE THINGS FALL A LITTLE BIT, NOW WE'RE GOING TO SEE ADDITIONAL INFLATION AT A TIME WHERE I DON'T THINK IT'S GOING TO BE HELPFUL TO THE CONSUMER.

I THINK IT'S GOING TO HURT THEM BECAUSE WE'RE AT TAIL END OF A BUSINESS CYCLE.

>> IS IT GOING TO HURT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, BUT GETTING MANUFACTURING BACK HERE AND AMERICAN BUSINESSES UP AND OPERATIONAL OR AT LEAST IN A BETTER POSITION THAN THEY ARE WITH INTERNATIONAL TRADE, ET CETERA, ET CETERA, IN OTHER WORDS, PROP UP AMERICA AS OPPOSED TO BRINGING STUFF IN FROM OTHER COUNTRIES.

IS THERE GOING TO BE PAIN AT FIRST AND THEN THAT SETS IN LATER?

IS THAT A POSSIBILITY?

>> I GUESS THERE'S ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY.

BUT THE CHALLENGE IS, WHAT WASN'T TO DO IS WE WANT TO ADD HIGHER VALUE AT MANUFACTURING, HIGHER LEVELS OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING.

WE WANT PEOPLE TO BE MORE PRODUCTIVE.

SIMPLY BRINGING BACK SOME LOW-WAGE SHOPS ISN'T REALLY HELPING OUR ECONOMY.

BUT IT'S GOING TO BE HURTING IN TERMS OF WHO PAYS THE TARIFFS.

IT'S GOING TO BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT TAX FOR THE PEOPLE ACROSS THE U.S.

I WOULD MUCH RATHER SEE MAYBE .01 OF THAT AMOUNT THAT'S GOING TO BE ESSENTIALLY LOST BECAUSE OF THE TARIFFS BE USED ON HEIGHTENING PEOPLE'S ABILITY TO MOVE UP THE CAREER LADDER, AND THEY'LL BE PAYING MORE IN TAXES, AND THAT'LL TAKE CARE OF THE NATIONAL DEBT, BECAUSE THE NATIONAL DEBT IS THE MAIN ISSUE THAT HE'S BEEN BRING UP.

I'M GOING TO BRING DOWN THE NATIONAL DEBT.

BUT THEY'RE TAXING U.S. CITIZENS TO BRING THAT DOWN, AND IT'S ALSO MAKING ECONOMIC INEFFICIENCY HAPPEN AT A PRETTY SICK LEVEL.

TAX REVENUES AREN'T REALLY GOING TO JUMP AS A RESULT, ACROSS THE BOARD THERE REALLY IS NO POSITIVE ECONOMIC ANSWER.

NOW, POLITICS IS PART OF IT.

PUBLIC POLICY DISCUSSIONS, PART ECONOMICS.

THE ECONOMICS IS MATH.

YOU CAN DO 2 PLUS 2 EQUALS 4.

WHEN YOU BRING IN POLICY AND POLITICS, YOU'RE NEGOTIATING, I DON'T KNOW, LET'S HAVE IT FIGURED OUT AND THINGS GET A LITTLE LESS EFFICIENT.

RIGHT NOW POLITICS IS DRIVING ECONOMIC POLICY RIGHT NOW, AND WHAT'S SHOCKING TO ME IS WHY IS IT THAT SOME OF THE LOCAL ECONOMISTS AS FAR AWAY FROM D.C. AND ARIZONA ARE FINDING THIS TRIVIAL, HIGH SCHOOL AND INTRO ECONOMIC PROBLEMS AND HOW DO YOU SOLVE IT AND THE ADVISERS AT D.C. HAVE NO CLUE, BECAUSE I DON'T THINK THEY'RE BEING LISTENED TO.

AND THE BEST INDICATION OF A GOOD LEADER IS IF THEY SURROUND THEMSELVES WITH GOOD PEOPLE, AND THEY LISTEN TO THEM.

AND I'M STILL GONNA BE POSITIVE.

I WOULD LIKE TRUMP TO SUCCEED.

BUT THIS IS A BAD, BAD START FROM AN ECONOMIST PERSPECTIVE.

>> INTERESTING PERSPECTIVE FROM YOU, JIM ROUZ.

TALKING ABOUT TARIFFS, OH, BOY.

THANKS FOR JOINING US.

>> ALWAYS GOOD TO SEE YOU.

>>> DEMOCRATS ARE COUNTING ON A STRONG PERFORMANCE IN THIS LATEST ELECTION, BUT FOR THE MOST PART THAT DID NOT HAPPEN.

I DEED, THE RESULTS WERE SOBERING ON AND OFF MANY DEMOCRATS ARE CALLING FOR A RE-ASSESSMENT OF PRIORITIES AND A RETOOLING OF THE PARTY.

TO LEARN MORE WE WELCOME POLITICAL STRATEGIST LORENZO SIERRA, VICE-PRESIDENT OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS WITH MATTERS OF STATE STRATEGIES.

GOOD TO SEE YOU AGAIN.

>> THANK YOU.

ALL RIGHT, WHAT HAPPENED?

>> WELL, YOU KNOW WHAT, I GO BACK 40 YEARS, TO THE 1984 ELECTION, AND AT THAT TIME GERALD D WAS WEARING AS -- GERALDINE FERRARO WAS RUNNING AS VICE-PRESIDENT AND TALKING TO THE UNION FOLKS AND AT THAT TIME THEY'RE ALSO SUPPORTING REAGAN, AND SHE SAYS HE'S GOING TO DISMANTLE EVERYTHING YOU'VE GOT GOING ON HERE, HE'S GOING TO TAKE AWAY THE ABILITY FOR YOU TO MAKE A LIVING.

AND THEIR RESPONSE WAS, YEAH, BUT WE'RE STANDING STRONG, WE'RE STANDING TALL.

AND I DON'T THINK THAT WE AS DEMOCRATS EVER TOOK THAT LESSON FROM THAT LONG AGO, AND YOU FAST-FORWARD 40 YEARS, AND WE LOST SO MANY WORKING CLASS, PEOPLE OF COLOR, THOSE SORTS OF PEOPLE THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN IN OUR CORNER ELECTION, IN ELECTION OUT, AND THEY JUST SYSTEMATICALLY WENT OVER TO THE OTHER SIDE.

>> HOW DO YOU APPLY THAT LESSON?

>> FIRST, NUMBER 1, LISTEN.

AND I DON'T NEED WE'VE DONE THAT.

WE DO A REALLY GOOD JOB OF TALKING ABOUT POLICY AND OTHER THINGS.

BUT I DON'T KNOW THAT WE'VE TAKEN THE TIME TO REALLY LISTEN TO PEOPLE.

WE CAN TALK ABOUT THE ECONOMY IN THE MACRO SENSE IN WHICH, YES, THE FUNDAMENTALS OF THE AMERICAN ECONOMY WERE FAR OUTPACING THE REST OF THE WORLD.

BUT I STILL CAN'T AFFORD TO PUT FOOD ON THE TABLE.

SO THERE'S A HUGE DISCONNECT, AND I DON'T THINK WE EVER PUT IT TOGETHER THAT, YES, THE MACRO DYNAMICS HAVE TO COME FIRST, AND HOPEFULLY YOU WILL BE FILING IT SOON BECAUSE WE WERE IN A GLOBAL PANDEMIC, AND SOMETIMES IT FEELS LIKE WE COMPLETELY FORGOT THAT THE WORLD SHUT DOWN, AND EVERYTHING THAT WAS A RESULT OF THAT.

>> PRESIDENT BIDEN, LOW APPROVAL RATINGS.

PRESIDENT-ELECT TRUMP, HE'S A CONVICTED FELON.

HE'S AN ADJUDICATED RAPIST.

HE STILL WON.

I MEAN, IT REALLY DOES -- AND I'VE USED THIS PHRASE BEFORE, IT REALLY SOUNDS LIKE AMERICA IS NOT BUYING WHAT DEMOCRATS ARE SELLING.

HOW DO YOU SELL BETTER?

>> WELL, PART OF IT IS TRUMP IS PROBABLY THE WORLD'S HISTORY'S GREATEST GRANDIZER.

EVERYTHING IS THE BEST OR EVERYTHING IS THE WORST.

AND HE WAS ABLE TO SELL THAT WHATEVER WE WERE DOING WAS HORRIBLE.

WE TAKE A LOOK AT THE CHIPS ACT WHERE HE WAS BE RAIDING THE CHIPS ACT.

THE CHIPS ACT IS FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGING THE ARIZONA ECONOMY, AND IS GOING TO DO SO FOR GENERATIONS TO COME AND IF HE PULLS THE PLUG ON THAT OR DOES SOMETHING CRAZY THAT, THERE GOES ALL OF OUR ECONOMIC GROWTH HERE IN ARIZONA, AND THAT'S GOING TO BE FELT VERY MUCH SO BY EVERY ARIZONAN.

>> IT CAN BE ARGUED THAT THE FAR LEFT IS DEFINING THE DEMOCRATIC MESSAGE.

IT CAN BE ARGUED THAT THE FAR LEFT IS BASICALLY PUSHING THE LIMITS OF POLITICAL CORRECTNESS, AND THE ELECTORATE GOT TIRED OF IT AND RESPONDED IN TIME.

DOES THAT MAKE SENSE TO YOU?

>> IT MAKES A LOT OF SENSE TO ME.

I THINK WHAT HAPPENS IS WE HEAR A LOT ABOUT THE MOST NOISIEST PEOPLE OR THE NOISIEST ELEMENTS OF OUR POLITICAL SYSTEM.

AND ON THE LEFT-HAND SIDE OF THE AISLE, WE DON'T GET NEAR AS MUCH GRACE AS THE RIGHT SIDE.

YOU YOURSELF JUST SAID IT.

CONVICTED FELON, ADJUDICATED RAPIST, ALL OF THOSE THINGS JUST -- THEY HAVE A LOT OF GRACE THAT WE DO NOT HAVE.

>> WHY DO YOU THINK THAT IS?

>> YOU KNOW, I THINK PART OF IT IS, YOU KNOW, PEOPLE HAVE GROWN NEW A CERTAIN AMERICA THAT WE THOUGHT, MAYBURY, WHATEVER, THINGS THAT NEVER REALLY EXISTED.

WE HAVE THIS PERSONAFICATION WHAT AMERICA CAN BE, SHOULD BE, AND YOU HAVE PEOPLE ON THE LEFT THAT ARE, WELL, NO, THE PLACE YOU WORK IS BAD.

THE AMERICA THAT YOU THINK IS JUST NOT A GOOD PLACE.

AND THERE'S MUCH TO BE SAID ABOUT THAT.

BUT I DON'T KNOW THAT WE STAY IN THE RIGHT WAY OR IN A WAY PEOPLE WANT TO HEAR IT.

>> I WAS GONNA SAY, HOW DO YOU SAY THAT IN THE RIGHT WAY?

BECAUSE IT DOESN'T SOUND LIKE IT'S HAPPENING RIGHT RIGHT NOW.

>> I THINK DO YOU IT BY STORY-TELLING, LIKE TELLING A STORY ABOUT PEOPLE.

YOU KNOW, I'VE WRITTEN THAT WHEN I GREW UP I WAS POOR.

BUT I DIDN'T KNOW I WAS POOR.

WE HAD -- AND WE HAD EVERYTHING THAT WE NEEDED.

WE WERE HAPPY, AND EVEN THOUGH WE STRUGGLED, IT NEVER FELT HOPELESS.

YOU COME TO THE DAY, AND PEOPLE JUST CAN'T EVEN GET CAUGHT UP.

AND WE'VE GOT TO BE ABLE TO FIGURE OUT WHAT THAT MEANS TO THEIR PSYCHE, TO WHAT THEY SEE IN THEMSELVES, AND WE NEED TO HAVE THOSE CONVERSATIONS WITH PEOPLE, AND WE NEED -- >> WE AS DEMOCRATS NEED TO SHOW THEM THAT THE POLICIES THAT WE'RE BRINGING AFFECT THOSE THE WAY YOU FEEL ABOUT YOURSELF AND THE WAY THAT YOU FEEL ABOUT YOUR FAMILY AND YOUR COMMUNITY.

>> BUT DOES THAT -- WE'RE RUNNING OUT OF TIME, UNFORTUNATELY, HERE, BUT DOES THAT MESSAGE NEED TO BE MADE BY SOMEONE WHO HAS CHARISMA.

YOU MENTIONED RONALD REAGAN.

YOU MENTIONED DONALD TRUMP.

THESE ARE TV PEOPLE.

THEY DO WELL ON CAMERA.

BOTH THEM HAVE CHARISMA, WHETHER YOU LIKE TO OR NOT.

THEY GOT IT.

DO DEMOCRATS HAVE CANDIDATES THAT HAVE THAT KIND OF POWER TO PULL THOSE "NOT QUITE SURE"?

>> I WOULD SAY AT THIS POINT AND THE WAIT ELECTION WENT THIS TIME, IT'S GOING TO BE ON ME.

IT'S GOING TO BE ON ME GETTING MY NEIGHBORS TO UNDERSTAND THAT.

IT'S GOING TO BE ON THOUSANDS OF HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE LIKE ME TAKING RESPONSIBILITY FOR MAKING OUR COUNTRY BETTER AND SELLING WHAT THIS DEMOCRATIC PARTY CAN BE.

>>> AND LAST QUESTION, ARE DEMOCRATS THINKING AND TALKING ABOUT THIS OR ARE DEMOCRATS IN COMPANY?

>> DENIAL -- IN DENIAL?

>> DE-MAIL TO IS A RIVER THAT MOVES FAST, AND WE'VE GOTTA GET OUT OF THAT RIVER.

I HOPE THESE CONVERSATIONS ARE GOING TO BE HAD.

I'VE SEEN SOME OF THE PEOPLE RUNNING FOR NATIONAL CHAIR HAVING THESE CONVERSATIONS, AND HOPEFULLY WE DO IT IN A WAY THAT DOESN'T TEAR US APART, THAT WE DO SOME SELF REFLECTION AND A-NUMBER 1, WE JUST LISTEN TO THE VOTERS THAT HAVE LEFT US.

>> THE MATTERS OF STATE STRATEGIES, GOOD CONVERSATION.

GOOD TO HAVE YOU HERE.

>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

>>> RESEARCHERS RECEIVED A $2.35 MILLION GRANT TO STUDY POSSIBLE LINKS BETWEEN ALZHEIMER'S AND TRAUMATIC BRAIN INJURY.

DIRECTOR OF ARIZONA'S NEURO AN LIT ICKES CENTER.

WELCOME TO ARIZONA HORIZON.

>> THANK YOU.

THANKS FOR HAVING ME.

>> SO GENETICS, PREDICTING RECOVERING FROM GENERAL -- TRAUMATIC BRAIN INJURIES, IS A SEPTEMBER INNOCENT WHAT ARE WE TALKING ABOUT HERE?

>> WELL, BRAIN INJURIES THAT ARE VERY COMMON, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT UP TO 3 MILLION NEW CASES A YEAR AND MANY WILL GO ON TO SUFFER LONG-TERM EFFECTS, THE MAJORITY OF THINGS LIKE AFFECTING THEIR MEMORY.

THE ABILITY TO THINK.

AND A LOT OF THOSE INDIVIDUALS WHO EXPERIENCE THE OVERTHEY'RE ALSO AT GREATER RISK OF DEVELOPING ALZHEIMER'S LATER IN LIFE.

IT'S NOT FULLY UNDERSTOOD WHY THIS HAPPENS AND HOW THIS HAPPENS.

AND SO WHAT OUR STUDY IS TRYING TO DO IS TO IDENTIFY THOSE AT GREATEST RISK, AND WE SEE THIS AS A FIRST STEP IN A MULTISTEP PROCESS THAT WOULD HOPEFULLY ALLOW US TO DEVELOP NEW TREATMENTS, NEW DRUGS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY HELP IMPROVE PEOPLE'S RECOVERY FROM HEAD INJURY, AND ALSO PREVENT THEM FROM HAVING ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE IN THE FUTURE.

>> SO BASICALLY, IT'S A GENETIC PREDISPOSITION TO GETTING DEMENTIA AND ALZHEIMER'S, BUT ALSO A PREDISPOSITION TO NOT GET IT.

IS THERE A -- COULD THERE BE A GENETIC COMPONENT TO PROTECT AGAINST THOSE KINDS OF THINGS LATER IN LIFE?

>> THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT WE'RE TRYING TO SEE.

SO THE IDEA THAT -- EVERYONE IS BORN WITH CERTAIN RISKS AND WE KNOW THAT ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE, FOR EXAMPLE, THERE'S A HUGE GENETIC DISPOSITION TO IT.

AND WE'RE NOT JUST LOOKING AT ONE GENE.

WE'RE GOING TO LOOK AT A VARIETY OF GENES, WHICH INDIVIDUALLY MAY NOT CONFIRM RISKS BUT COULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE OUTCOME.

SO WHAT WE'RE TRYING DO IS SEE WHETHER OR NOT THAT RISK WILL HARM SOMEONE, LET'S SAY, UNFORTUNATELY YOU DEVELOP A HEAD INJURY SOMETIME IN YOUR LIFE.

WILL THOSE TWO THINGS TOGETHER PUT YOU ON A PATH TO DEVELOPING ALZHEIMER'S LATER ON.

AND THE CONVERSELY, CAN WE IDENTIFY PEOPLE WHO SOMEHOW ARE BORN WITH SOME TYPE OF PROTECTIVE FACTORS THAT WE COULD THEN LEVERAGE TO TRY TO DEVELOP NEW DRUGS TO HELP EVERYONE ELSE.

>> AND I WOULD IMAGINE THE NUMBER OF HEAD INJURIES WOULD PLAY A FACTOR IN THIS AS WELL.

>> YEAH, THAT'S RIGHT.

SO THERE IS STUDIES THAT SUGGEST THAT THE MORE INJURY YOU HAVE, THE MORE LIKELY THAT IS TO HAPPEN.

HOWEVER, WE DO ALSO SEE PEOPLE WHO DEVELOP ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE WHO MAY HAVE HAD JUST A VERY MINOR INJURY IN THEIR LIFE.

>> AND THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO DEVELOP ALZHEIMER'S WHOSE MAY HAVE NEVER HAD INJURY.

SO IT'S STILL KIND OF A WIDE OPEN FIELD THERE, ISN'T IT.

>> ABSOLUTELY.

>> SO HOW DOES THIS STUDY AND ABOUT?

>> SO -- HOW DOES IT GO ABOUT?

>> WE'RE GOING TO TRY TO UNDERSTAND MORE ABOUT THE DISEASE PROCESS AND HARVEST MORE DATA.

IT'S GOING TO BE PROBABLY ONE OF THE LARGEST ONES TO DATE, LOOKING AT RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN TRAUMATIC INJURY AND ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE.

WE WILL BE ANALYZING DATA FROM OVER 5,000 INDIVIDUALS, WHO HAVE VOLUNTEERED THEIR TIME, THEIR INFORMATION, BY PARTICIPATING IN TWO LARGE ONGOING STUDIES OF TRAUMATIC INJURY AND ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE, AND BY ANALYZING THE DATA, OUR SHOW THAT WE CAN THEN EXAMINE WHAT ARE THE FACTORS OR COMBINATION OF FACTORS THAT COULD PUT SOMEONE AT GREATER RISK OF THIS HAPPENING.

>> SO AGAIN NUMBER OF INJURIES, IS A VARIETY OF INJURIES, BIOMARKERS, IS THIS THE KIND OF THING THAT AI COULD HELP WITH?

>> WE WILL BE USING SOME ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN OUR ANALYZE.

NOT JUST TO PREDICT WHO WILL BE THE ONES WHO MAY DEVELOP ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE OR MAY RUN FOR TROUBLE FOR HEAD INJURY, BUT ALSO IN TERMS OF IDENTIFYING POTENTIALLY THE BIOMARKERS THAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT.

>> NOW, YOU'LL BE FOLLOWING PATIENTS.

>> YES, ONE OF THE VERY EXCITING ASPECTS OF THE STUDIES IS WE'LL BE ENROLLING 400 TO 500 INDIVIDUALS WITH HEAD INJURIES THAT VARY.

AND WE'LL FOLLOW THEM OVER TIME AND ASK THEM TO VOLUNTEER AND SAMPLE THEIR BLOOD WITH CONSENT TO STUDY, YOU KNOW, WHAT ARE THE GENES OR PROTEINS THAT COULD PROTECT AGAINST DEVELOPING IMPAIRMENT.

>> WHAT KIND OF TIME ARE WE TALKING ABOUT.

>> THIS WILL BE FOR EACH INDIVIDUAL ABOUT TWO YEARS.

THE WHOLE STUDY WILL TAKE OVER FOUR YEARS, IN WHICH WE'LL BE ENROLLING AS MANY INDIVIDUALS AS WE CAN IN THE FIRST TWO TO THREE YEARS, AND THAT WILL GIVE US ENOUGH TIME TO FOLLOW THEM AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS.

>> I WAS GONNA SAY BECAUSE, AFTER TWO YEARS, YOU GOT PRETTY GOOD FOR TWO YEARS, BUT THEN YOU GOT FOUR YEARS, AND FOR FOLKS WHO MIGHT DEVELOP SOMETHING AFTER FOUR YEARS, I MEAN, THAT'S STILL GONNA BE A LITTLE BIT OF A WILD WEST THERE, HUH?

>> YEAH.

FOR THAT, WE GO BACK TO THE BIGGER COHORT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT.

>> THERE WE GO.

>> EXACTLY.

>> SO IT SOUNDS LIKE -- WE'VE DONE SO MANY SHOWS ON ALZHEIMER'S, AND IT'S ALWAYS STILL A MYSTERY, AND IT'S ALWAYS FRUSTRATING FOR -- TO A CERTAIN DEGREE.

THERE HAVE BEEN ADVANCES BUT IT'S ALWAYS FRUSTRATING.

GENETIC MAKE-UP, BIOMARKERS, IS THIS THE NEW FRONTIER FOR THIS KIND OF RESEARCH?

>> YES AND NO.

I MEAN, 10 YEARS AGO WE WERE TALKING ABOUT, YOU KNOW, HUMAN GENOME PROJECT AND HOW IT WILL REVOLUTIONIZE MEDICINE.

IT DIDN'T REALLY COME TO PASS AS QUICKLY AS WE HOPED.

BUT I THINK -- I THINK IT'S TAKEN US PRETTY FAR, AND HOPEFUL THREE WILL CONTINUE TO HELP US UNDERSTAND MORE ABOUT HOW THE BRAIN WORKS AND HOW AND WHY PEOPLE DEVELOP THE CONDITION.

>> WE'RE TALKING ABOUT -- ARE THERE THINGS JUST WAITING TO HAPPEN, WHAT DO YOU SEE THROUGHOUT?

>> I THINK SO.

I MEAN, ONE OF THE HUGE VICTORIES RECENTLY IS THE AVAILABILITY NOW OF NEW TREATMENTS FOR ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE, EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE IMPERFECT, THEY MAY HAVE MODEST EFFECTS BUT IT'S STILL FIRST STEP.

AND I THINK MANY OTHERS ARE COMING INTO THE PIPELINE.

AND WHAT OUR STUDY IS HOPING TO CONTRIBUTE IS TO BUILD MORE TOWARDS THE ROADMAP OF WHAT OTHER THINGS WE SHOULD TARGET, WHAT OTHER DRUGS WOULD MAKE A PROMISE.

AND HOPEFULLY THEY CAN EXPEDITE THE PROPERTY.

>> WELL, DOCTOR, BEST OF LUCK.

WE'RE ROOTING FOR YOU.

AND CONGRATULATIONS ON THE RESEARCH AND THE GRANT, AND THANKS FOR JOINS.

WE APPRECIATE IT.

>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME.

>>> AND THAT IS IT FOR NOW.

I'M TED SIMONS.

THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

YOU HAVE A GREAT EVENING.