COMING UP NEXT ON ARIZONA HORIZON... WE'LL HEAR FROM REPUBLICAN DANIEL BUTIEREZ, WHO IS CHALLENGING DEMOCRATIC INCUMBENT RAUL GRIJALVA IN CONGRESSIONAL- DISTRICT 7.

ALSO TONIGHT, A LOOK AT VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS "UNDECIDED" IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE.

AND A NEW REPORT ON THE PERSISTENT TEACHER SHORTAGE IN ARIZONA.

THOSE STORIES AND MORE NEXT, ON ARIZONA HORIZON.

GOOD EVENING, AND WELCOME TO ARIZONA HORIZON.

I'M TED SIMONS.

HEADLINE OF NOTE, NEW EVIDENCE WAS RELEASED TODAY IN THE JANUARY 6TH CASE AGAINST DONALD TRUMP.

UNSEALED SPECIAL-PROSECUTOR JACK SMITH'S LEGAL BRIEF THAT ARGUES THAT TRUMP, QUOTE, "RESORTED TO CRIMES," IN HIS FAILED BID TO OVERTURN THE 2020 ELECTION, AND THAT TRUMP IS NOT IMMUNE FROM PROSECUTION ON FEDERAL CHARGES FOR THOSE CRIMES.

SMITH ARGUES THAT TRUMP'S SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE ATTACK ON THE CAPITOL WERE NOT OFFICIAL ACTS OF A PRESIDENT.

THAT INCLUDES A TWITTER POST THAT FOCUSED THE MOB'S ATTENTION ON HARMING VICE PRESIDENT MIKE PENCE.

AN AIDE ALERTED TRUMP TO THE INCREASING DANGER TO PENCE.

BUT TRUMP ONLY RESPONDED, QUOTE, "SO WHAT."

THAT'S ACCORDING TO GRAND JURY TESTIMONY REVEALED TODAY.

THE BRIEF CONCLUDES THAT, QUOTE "ALTHOUGH THE DEFENDENT WAS THE INCUMBENT PRESIDENT DURING THE CHARGED CONSPIRACIES, HIS SCHEME WAS FUNDAMENTALLY A PRIVATE ONE."

REPUBLICAN DANIEL BUTIEREZ IS CHALLENGING DEMOCRATIC INCUMBENT RAUL GRIJALVA IN ARIZONA'S 7TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, WHICH STRETCHES ALONG ARIZONA'S BORDER WITH MEXICO AND INCLUDES PARTS OF TUCSON, YUMA NOGALES, AND THE PHOENIX AREA.

CONGRESSMAN GRIJALVA DECLINED TO JOIN US FOR A DEBATE TONIGHT, SO EARLIER TODAY, WE HEARD FROM DANIEL BUTIEREZ.

>>> DANIEL BUTIEREZ, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

WE APPRECIATE YOUR TIME.

IT'S GOOD TO HAVE YOU HERE.

YOUR DISTRICT'S BIGGEST ISSUE, WHAT IS IT?

>> THE OPEN BORDERS.

>> WHEN YOU SAY OPEN BORDERS, BORDERS NOT REALLY OPEN.

THERE ARE PEOPLE DOWN THERE PATROLLING THE BORDER AND YOU'RE SUPPOSED TO -- I MEAN, THERE IS A WAY TO SECURE THE BORDER.

IT'S NOT OPEN, IS IT?

>> OH, IT'S OPEN.

>> YOU THINK IT'S OPEN.

>> I'VE BEEN DOWN THERE IN THE TUCSON SECTOR.

IT'S ABOUT 14 MILES UP AND RECENTLY THEY WOUND UP CLOSING ALL OF THE STATIONS THAT WERE OPEN.

THERE WERE EIGHT OF THEM WIDE OPEN.

THEY DRIVE TO THE END OF THE WALL BECAUSE THAT PORT OF ENTRY IS CLOSED.

THE BORDER PATROL DRIVE UP AND THEY PICK THEM UP AT THE END OF THE WALL.

THEY DRIVE THEM DOWN, THEY PROCESS THEM, AND THEN THEY TAKE THEM TO THREE POINTS AND LOAD THEM UP ON BUSES AND DRIVE THEM TO THE MIGRANT CAMPS, THE SHELTERS, AND THEY'RE HUGE SHELTERS.

BUT, YES, THE BORDER IS WIDE OPEN AT THAT POINT, AND THERE'S NOBODY TO PATROL IT OR ANYTHING BECAUSE OUR BORDER PATROL ARE DRIVING BACK AND FORTH.

SO PEOPLE JUST COME ACROSS IT AND GO ON -- >> I GUESS MY POINT IS THERE IS AN ATTEMPT TO SECURE THE BORDER, THERE IS AN ATTEMPT TO PATROL DOWN THERE, SO IT'S NOT JUST LIKE COME ON IN.

BUT AS FAR AS IMMIGRATION IS CONCERNED, YOU TALK ABOUT SECURING THE BORDER.

DEFINE A SECURE BORDER.

>> WELL, I WOULD FINISH OFF WHERE THEY STOPPED BUILDING THE WALL.

I WOULD FINISH IT ON DOWN FURTHER SO THAT PEOPLE COULD BE DIRECTED TO THE PORT OF ENTRY.

AND WE NEED TO OPEN UP THE PORT OF ENTRY SO THAT WE CAN PROCESS PEOPLE THROUGH IT UNDER SOME KIND OF SURVEILLANCE.

>> YEAH, AND WHICH IS HAPPENING NOW.

I MEAN, THEY -- PEOPLE ARE BEING PROCESSED TO A GREAT DEGREE DOWN THERE.

>> OH, YEAH.

AND SOME ARE JUST WALKING ACROSS THE BORDER.

>> YEAH, WELL, THEY'RE NOT SUPPOSED TO, AND OBVIOUSLY THAT'S NOT SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN.

AND OBVIOUSLY THERE IS AN ATTEMPT TO SECURE -- I DON'T WANT TO GET TOO BOGGED DOWN BUT YOUR OPPONENT SAYS A BIG THING TO DO WOULD BE TO GET FUNDING TO LOCAL GOVERNMENTS DOWN THERE FOR RESOURCES.

DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT?

WELL, WE'RE SPENDING $1.4 MILLION A WEEK RIGHT NOW.

HOUSING AND SHELTERING THESE INDIVIDUALS.

I THINK WE JUST NEED TO FINISH THE WALL SO DETOUR PEOPLE FROM COMING HERE.

>> SO WHEN YOUR OPPONENT SAYS HUMANITARIAN SERVICES, AID, LEGAL, ASYLUM SEEKERS, YOU SAY DON'T SPEND THE MONEY?

>> I SAY THAT THERE IS ILLEGAL ASYLUM SEEKERS, WHICH THEREIN AREN'T ANY IN TUCSON BECAUSE TO BE LEGAL YOU HAVE TO COME THROUGH A LEGAL PORT OF ENTRY, WE DON'T HAVE ONE IN TUCSON.

THERE'S NOT A PORT OF ENTRY AT THIS TIME.

THAT'S WHY I SAID WE NEED TO OPEN UP SASSABY, SO THAT WE DO HAVE ONE.

>> I'M NOT SURE I UNDERSTAND YOU BUT DON'T WANT TO GET BOGGED DOWN ON THAT PARTICULAR FACT, I'M NOT SURE I UNDERSTAND.

YOUR OPPONENT RECOGNIZES THE SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC IMPACT THAT IMMIGRANTS, ASYLUM SEEKERS HAVE ON THE STATE AND ON THE COUNTRY.

IS HE WRONG ABOUT THAT?

>> TO A DEGREE.

THERE ARE SOME THAT ARE -- HELP US, AND THERE'S A LOT THAT DON'T HELP US.

I MEAN, WE -- MY GREAT GRANDFATHER WAS AN IMMIGRANT.

HE CAME HERE, AND HE WORKED THE FIELDS.

AND HIS SON WORKED FIELDS, AND MY DAD WORKED FIELDS.

THEY BECAME MINERS, AND THEY BECAME PRODUCTIVE MEMBERS OF SOCIETY.

THERE ARE SOME OF THOSE COMING THROUGH, AND THEN THERE'S OTHER ONES THAT ARE COMING THROUGH JUST TO RUN DRUGS ACROSS THE BORDER, WHICH HAVE BEEN FILMED.

>> AND YOU ALSO HAVE SAID THAT IT'S CLEAR -- I THINK THAT WAS YOUR QUOTE, IT'S CLEAR THAT ILLEGALS, THIS IS A QUOTE -- ILLEGALS ARE BEING BROUGHT OVER TO FAVOR DEMOCRATS IN OUR ELECTIONS.

DO YOU REALLY BELIEVE THAT AND IF SO HOW IS THAT CLEAR TO YOU?

>> I SAID THAT?

>> YEAH.

I GOT THAT AS A QUOTE.

>> FROM ME?

>> YEAH.

>> I DON'T REMEMBER SAYING THAT.

>> SO YOU DON'T AGREE WITH THAT.

DONALD TRUMP WANTS MASS DEPORTATIONS.

DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT?

>> I DON'T THINK WE NEED TO HAVE MASS DEPORTATIONS.

I BELIEVE IN 2010 WHEN THE IMMIGRANTS AT THAT TIME, THEY SELF-DEPORTED THEMSELVES WHEN WE CAME OUT WITH SB-1070.

I BELIEVE WE HAVE LAWS ALREADY ON THE BOOKS, MANY OF THESE IMMIGRANTS WILL JUST GO HOME, THE ONES THAT AREN'T HERE LEGALLY IF WE JUST DO WHAT'S ON THE BOOK.

>> WHY DO YOU THINKING OPERATION THAT HAS GONE UP OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS AND WHAT WOULD YOU DO.

>> WORK ON BRINGING FUEL PRICES BACK DOWN BY DRILLING MORE.

I WOULD LOOK TOWARDS OTHER ALTERNATIVES.

ONE, I WOULD OPEN UP THE MINES AGAIN.

I DON'T WANT TO GET DEEP INTO, THAT BUT IN 2000 -- IN 1980 WE STARTED CLOSING DOWN THE MINES AND STARTED BUILDING PRISONS.

WE NEED TO START CLOSING PRISONS AND OPENING MINES.

>> YOU TALK ABOUT RESPONSIBLE MINING PRACTICES IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA.

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

>> RECYCLING OUR WATER, REUSING OUR WATER.

WE USED TO DO IT QUITE A BIT BACK IN THE 70s.

HAD A LOT OF SUPERVISION OF THE MINES.

PEOPLE CAME IN AND OVERSAW THE MINES.

AND WE NEED TO GO BACK TO THAT.

>> AS FAR AS THE TRUMP TAX CUT IN 2017.

I KNOW YOU LIKE TAX CUTS FOR SMALL BUSINESSES.

YOU'RE A SMALL BUSINESS PERSON.

TAX CUTS ALL THE WAY AROUND, IS THAT SOMETHING YOU WOULD SUPPORT ON CAPITOL HILL?

>> OH, YEAH.

>> IF IT MEANS 4.6 TRILLION ADDED TO THE U.S. DEBT, WHICH IS WHAT ANALYSTS HAVE SAID, STILL SUPPORT IT?

>> I'M NOT SURE THAT THAT WOULD DO THAT.

I CAN GIVE YOU AN EXAMPLE.

2017 WHEN TRUMP CAME OUT WITH HIS TAX CUTS, I WAS WORKING FOR ANOTHER COMPANY.

IT GAVE ME THE CONFIDENCE I NEEDED.

I STARTED WITH PAINTING BECAUSE OF THOSE TACK CUTS AND LAST SUMMER EMPLOYED 67 HOME ELSE PEOPLE FROM THE STREETS, I BROUGHT THEM TO WORK FOR ME AND THEY BECAME PRODUCTIVE MEMBERS OF SOCIETY AND RETURNED BACK TO -- >> BUT THE CRITICISM IS MANY OF THOSE TAX CUTS GO TO THOSE NOT OPENING SMALL BUSINESSES BUT TO THOSE WHO MAKE A LOT OF MONEY AND TO BIG BUSINESSES AND TO THOSE WHO ARE WEALTHY.

HOW DOES THAT SQUARE WITH YOU?

>> I BELIEVE EVERYONE SHOULD BE PAYING THEIR FAIR SHARE OF TAXES AND IF THEY'RE WEALTHY, THEY SHOULD BE PAYING WHAT THEY OWE.

>> I GOTTA BRING UP THE ABORTION BECAUSE THAT'S A MAJOR ISSUE.

CERTAINLY IS AN ISSUE IN WASHINGTON.

IF YOU ARE ON CAPITOL HILL, WOULD YOU WANT CONGRESS TO DO SOMETHING REGARDING ABORTION RIGHTS AND ABORTION ACCESS?

I THINK IT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE STATES, TO THE STATES LIKE ARIZONA.

IT'S LEGAL IN ARIZONA.

AND I BELIEVE OTHER STATES WILL DO AS ARIZONA DID AND IMPLEMENT NEW LAWS AND VOTE ON THEM AND MAKE IT LEGAL IN THEIR STATES.

>> SO YOU AGREE WITH THE SUPREME COURT OVERTURNING ROE V. WADE.

>> YES.

>> BECAUSE?

>> I BELIEVE IT SHOULD BE HANDED BACK TO THE STATES AND THAT THE STATE SHOULD MAKE A DECISION ON IT.

EACH STATE SHOULD DO WHAT THEY WANT TO DO WITH IT.

>> SO IF A NEIGHBORING STATE HAS SOMETHING MUCH MORE STRICT AND ANOTHER NEIGHBORING STATE HAS SOMETHING MUCH MORE LAX, IT'S OKAY BY NEW.

>> CONGRESS SHOULD NOT GET INVOLVED.

>> EXACTLY.

THAT SHOULD NOT BE ANYTHING TO DO WITH CONGRESS.

IT SHOULD BE BETWEEN THE PEOPLE, LET THE PEOPLE VOTE ON IT, LET THE PEOPLE DECIDE.

>> LAST QUESTION, I WANT TO TALK ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE BECAUSE YOUR OPPONENT TALKS QUITE A BIT ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE.

IT NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED.

IT'S A MAJOR ISSUE TO HIM, IS IT A MAJOR ISSUE TO YOU?

>> FIRST OFF, WE NEED TO GET THROUGH LIKE THE PRISONS HERE IN ARIZONA, WE EMPLOY INMATES TO GO OUT AND CLEAR BRUSH, CLEAR FORESTS, AND WE SHOULD DO THAT -- THAT SHOULD BE MORE AVAILABLE TO MORE STATES, MORE PRISONS SHOULD PROVIDE THOSE KIND OF JOBS.

>> OKAY, THOSE KIND OF JOBS ARE ONE THING BUT RENEWABLE ENERGY IS ANOTHER AND DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT KIND OF POLICY?

>> RENEWABLE -- >> SOLAR, WIND... >> NO, I AGREE WITH THE SOLAR, DEFINITELY WITH THE SOLAR.

I'M NOT SO SURE ABOUT THE WIND.

THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF PROBLEMS WITH THE WIND.

SOLAR SEEMS TO BE VERY GOOD INSIDE BUT THE IDEA IS THAT RENEWABLE ENERGY IS SOMETHING THAT YOU DON'T NECESSARILY POO-POO.

>> NO, NOT AT ALL.

>> LAST QUESTION IS WHY ARE YOU DOING THIS?

THIS IS A VERY, VERY DEMOCRATIC DISTRICT.

HANDEDLY YOUR PHONE ACCESSIBILITY LONG-TIME -- HE'S NOT GONNA RUN AGAIN AFTER THIS ELECTION.

HE'S ALREADY ANNOUNCED THAT.

WHY ARE YOU DOING THIS?

>> I'M RUNNING BECAUSE OF THE DIVISION.

NOW, WE HAVE -- BE HONEST WITH YOU, WE HAVE NOBODY REALLY REPRESENTING C IT'LL 7.

AND I DON'T MEAN THAT DISREPECTFULLY BUT THE FACT IS HE ONLY RESPECTS A SMALL PORTION OF CD7.

HE DOESN'T EVEN REPRESENT ALL OF THE DEMOCRATS.

HE DOESN'T REPRESENT ANY OF THE REPUBLICANS.

HE DOESN'T REPRESENT THE INDEPENDENTS.

THERE ARE MORE THAN 200,000 VOTERS THAT DON'T EVEN VOTE IN THIS RACE AND NEVER HAVE VOTED IN THIS RACE, AND YOU CAN LOOK AT THE FACTS TO THAT.

HE GETS 130 TO 170,000 VOTES.

THE REPUBLICANS GENERALLY GET -- WELL, RICH ALMOST MEET HIM, BUT ON THE AVERAGE THEY GET ABOUT 100,000 OR LESS.

AND HERE'S OVER 200,000 THAT DON'T EVEN VOTE.

>> RIGHT.

SO YOU'RE SAYING WHAT?

I MEAN OH OH.

>> THEY WANT A MODERATE.

THEY WANT SOMEONE NOT EXTREME TO THE LEFT OR TO THE RIGHT.

>> SO OPPONENTSES IN THE PAST HAVE BEEN TOO EXTREME?

>> YEAH.

>> AND YOU DON'T THINK YOU'RE EXTREME.

>> NO.

>> MR. BUTIEREZ, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR YOUR TIME AND APPRECIATE YOU MAKING A TRIP UP HERE FOR US.

ARIZONA PBS HAS HAS A GROWING DIGITAL PRESENCE... UNDECIDED VOTERS IN ARIZONA COULD BE A DECIDING FACTOR IN NEXT MONTH'S ELECTION.

BUT JUST WHO ARE THESE VOTERS WHO SAY THAT THEY STILL HAVEN'T DECIDED ON HOW THEY PLAN TO VOTE ON MAJOR RACES AND ISSUES.

JOINING US NOW IS PAUL BENTZ, VICE PRESIDENT OF RESEARCH AND STRATEGY AT THE CONSULTING FIRM HIGHGROUND.

>> PAUL, GOOD TO SEE YOU.

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

IS THERE SUCH A THING RIGHT NOW IN THIS DAY IN AGE OF DIVIDE EVERYTHING OF AN UNDECIDED VOTER.

>> SURE.

THERE ARE STILL SOME FOLKS THAT HAVEN'T MADE UP THEIR MIND OR MORE ACCURATE IS THEY PROBABLY HAVE SOMEONE IN MIND BUT WITH THE NEGATIVITY OF THE CYCLE AND THE ATTACKS THAT WE SEE ON A VERY REGULAR BASIS, WHAT WE GENERALLY SEE IS SOMEONE GOES FROM PICKING SOMEONE TO NOT SURE IF THEY REALLY WANT TO CHOOSE THEM, AND THAT'S SORT OF THE SECRET THAT MOST FOLKS DON'T TALK ABOUT.

IS NEGATIVE ADS, THEY DON'T BRING YOUR NUMBER UP, THEY DON'T NATURALLY ASSUME THAT IF YOU ATTACK YOUR OPPONENT, YOU GET THAT VOTER, WHAT IT DOES IS CAST DOUBT IN THEIR MIND AND THEN YOU HAVE TO GIVE THEM A REASON TO VOTE FOR YOU, NOT SIMPLY AGAINST YOUR OPPONENT.

>> WHICH IS WHY NEGATIVE ADVERTISING WORKS SO WELL, NOT SO MUCH FOR YOU, BUT AGAINST THE OTHER GUY.

>> CERTAINLY IT HAS A SUPPRESSIVE EFFECT.

I THINK ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE'RE SEEING PARTICULARLY AMONG REPUBLICANS IS A LOT OF NEGATIVITY, A LOT OF ATTACK OPPONENTS, NOW, TO CAST DOUBT.

I THINK THAT DOESN'T NECESSARILY HELP WITH VOTER TURN-OUT.

I THINK IT'S MORE OF A SUPPRESSIVE IN NATURE, BUT IN GENERAL, TURN-OUT IS REPUBLICANS DO BETTER IN THE STATE OF ARIZONA, THAT MIGHT BE PART OF THE STRATEGY.

>> WHEN SOMEONE SAYS THEY'RE UNDECIDED ABOUT THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE, ARE THEY REALLY UNDECIDED AS TO DONALD TRUMP OVER HERE AND KAMALA HARRIS?

I MEAN, GOODNESS GRACIOUS, THERE'S NOT MUCH -- IT'S A VAST CASS UM IN BETWEEN THERE.

>> ABSOLUTELY.

I THINK ONE OF THE CHALLENGES IS THIS IS AN UNPRECEDENTED ELECTION.

SEEMS TO CHANGE EVERY FEW DAYS.

YOU HAD BIDEN DROP OUT AND THEN HARRIS REPLACE HIM.

HARRIS IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF AN UNKNOWN.

I THINK PEOPLE WOULD LIKE TO KNOW A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT HER.

WE HAVE TWO NEW VICE-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES THAT ARE IN THERE THAT CREATE A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY, AS WELL, AS FOLKS ARE TRYING TO READ UP AND LEARN ABOUT THESE CANDIDATES.

THEY'RE ALSO BEING INUNDATED WITH THE NEGATIVES ABOUT THE CANDIDATES.

AND I THINK THAT'S WHAT CREATES SOME UNCERTAINTY.

>> THE VICE-PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE, DO YOU THINK THAT'S -- ANY SWINGS THERE, LEFT, RIGHT, ANYTHING?

>> I DON'T THINK SO.

I THINK VANCE DID MUCH BETTER THAN TRUMP DID IN THE DEBATE.

I THINK SOME WILL SAY THAT VANCE LIKELY WON THAT DEBATE, BUT IT WAS PRETTY CLOSE.

I THINK THE TONE AND TENOR OF THAT DEBATE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER THAN THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE.

IT GOES TO MORE OF AN EARLIER TIME WHERE FOLKS WERE A LITTLE BIT MORE CORDIAL.

WHERE THEY WERE WILLING TO AGREE WITH ONE ANOTHER ON SOME ITEMS AND I THINK THAT'S WHAT VOTERS LIKE TO SEE.

I THINK VOTERS WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME MORE POSITIVITY OR ASPIRATIONAL APPROACHES TO THESE ELECTIONS.

IT'S SOMETHING WE DON'T SEE VERY OFTEN.

>> YEAH, INTERESTING.

OKAY, SO YOU GOT YOUR UNDECIDED VOTERS WHO DON'T KNOW WHO THEY'RE GOING TO VOTE FOR AND THEN THE OTHER UNDECIDED VOTERS WHO AREN'T SURE THEY'RE EVEN GOING -- THEY'RE UNDECIDED ON VOTING.

I MEAN, THESE ARE PEOPLE -- HOW DO YOU GET THEM OFF THE COUCH?

WHAT DO YOU DO?

>> WELL, THE LOW EFFICACY WITH VOTERS ARE THOSE WHO DON'T HAVE THE HISTORY OF VOTING, THEY TEND TO SHOW UP WHEN THE PRESIDENT IS AT THE TOP OF THE TICKET.

THAT'S WHEN THEY SORT OF START PAYING ATTENTION.

BUT WITH THE ELECTION LIKE THIS BEING AS CLOUDY AND NEGATIVE AS IT IS, WHAT WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE IS PEOPLE SHOW UP FOR OTHER REASONS, FOR THE ABORTION INITIATIVE, FOR EXAMPLE, FOR THE IMMIGRATION INITIATIVE, OR TO VOTE FOR ONE OF THEIR LOCAL RACES THAT THEY CARE A LOT ABOUT.

I THINK WE'LL SEE SOME FOLKS SHOW UP FOR THAT.

AND THE QUESTION IS, WILL THEY ACTUALLY TRANSLATE AND VOTE FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AS WELL.

INDEPENDENT VOTERS ARE GOING TO BE THE KEY TO THIS UPCOMING ELECTION BECAUSE ONE OF THE THINGS THAT CHARACTERIZES THEM IS THEY CHOOSE NOT TO TO BE OF A PARTY, SO THEY'RE NOT LOYAL TO ONE PARTY OR THE OTHER SO THEY ACTUALLY CAN PICK AND CHOOSE.

SO, YOU KNOW, YOU LOOK AT THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, THERE COULD BE A VOTER THAT VOTES FOR TRUMP AND GOES AND VOTES FOR GALLEGOS.

THAT WILL CERTAINLY HAPPEN.

THERE WILL BE A VOTER THAT VOTES FOR THE ABORTION INITIATIVE AND FOR THE IMMIGRATION INITIATIVE, BUT THE INDEPENDENTS IN PARTICULAR ARE KNOWN TO SHORT OF SHOP ALA CARTE WHEN IT COMES TO VOTING.

>> BUT IS IT EASIER TO GET THE PERSUADABLE VOTERS TO GET ON YOUR SIDE, THEY'RE UNDECIDED BUT PERSUADABLE, AS OPPOSED TO THE, I DON'T EVEN KNOW IF I'M GOING TO VOTE GUYS, ON THE COUCH, ON YOUR SIDE.

WHO'S EASIEST TO GET MOVING IN WHAT THE CANDIDATE CONSIDERS THE RIGHT DIRECTION?

>> THE VOTERS YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT, THE HIGH EFFICACY PERSUADABLES IS VERY SMALL.

IT'S A SMALL SEGMENT.

YOU DEFINITELY WANT TO TALK TO THEM.

I WOULD EXPECT THAT THE GROUND GAMES ARE GOING AFTER LOWER EFFICACY VOTERS, FOLKS THAT MAYBE DON'T PARTICIPATE IN EVERY ELECTION AND TRYING TO GET THEM TO SHOW UP.

TRADITIONALLY THAT'S DONE THROUGH EARLY VOTING.

IF YOU CAN GET SOMEONE TO VOTE EARLY YOU HAVE THEM BANKED AND YOU CAN MOVE ON TO OTHER PEOPLE THAT MAYBE DON'T VOTE AS OFTEN AND YOU CAN SPEND SOME TIME WITH THEM.

BUT IT CAST DOUBT, PARTICULARLY REPUBLICANS, ABOUT EARLY VOTING SO THEY WILL HAVE TO SPEND TIME WITH THE ELECTION DAY VOTERS AND MAKE SURE THEY SHOW UP TO VOTE AND BANK THOSE FOLKS AND THEN GO TO THE UNDECIDEDS OR THE LOWER TURN-OUT VOTERS.

THAT'S WHERE DEMOCRATS HAVE A HIGHER ADVANTAGE BECAUSE THEY SPENT TIME GETTING MORE DEMOCRATS TO VOTE EARLY WHICH ALLOWS THEM TO MOVE ON TO SOME OF THOSE UNDECIDED FOLKS THAT MAY NOT SHOW UP.

>> AND I WAS GONNA ASK, WHICH PARTY SEEMS TO HAVE AN ADVANTAGE ON EITHER SIDE, AND YOU'RE SAYING IN TERMS OF TIMING MAYBE DEMOCRATS?

>> FOR DECADES IT WAS REPUBLICANS.

REPUBLICANS HAD CREATED EARLY VOTING HEAVIED IT AND DID IT INCREDIBLY WELL.

FOLLOWING 2016, FOLLOWING 2020, IT REALLY CAST DOUBTS ON THAT, AND WE SEE THAT NOW GOING BACK, WE'RE REALLY LOOKING AT A SPOT WHERE DEMOCRATS HAVE CAUGHT UP ON EARLY VOTING AND IN FACT, I THINK THEIR GROUND GAME IN ARIZONA IS PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT BETTER.

>> AND THAT'S PARTLY BECAUSE REPUBLICANS SHOOTING THEMSELVES IN THE FOOD, I WOULD IMAGINE.

>> THAT'S CORRECT.

AND THERE'S ABOUT 10 TO 15% OF REPUBLICANS THAT ARE CROSSOVER VOTERS, CHOOSING DEMOCRATS BECAUSE THEY'RE NOT MAGA REPUBLICANS.

WHEN HAVE YOU CANDIDATES LIKE KARI LAKE TELLING McCAIN VOTERS TO GET OUT, IT HAS AN EFFECT.

THERE'S A PORTION OF THEIR OWN BASE THAT IS NOT VOTING FOR THEM.

AND THAT'S WHY IT'S REALLY COMPETITIVE RIGHT NOW BETWEEN THE CANDIDATES, IS BECAUSE DEMOCRATS ARE GETTING A LITTLE BIT OF CROSSOVER FROM REPUBLICANS, AND SO IT COMES DOWN TO BE INDEPENDENT VOTERS AND WHERE THEY ARE.

>> AS FAR AS POLLING IS CONCERNED, LAST QUESTION HERE, WHAT DO WE WATCH FOR IN TERMS OF THESE UNDECIDED VOTES?

IF IT INCREASES, WHAT DOES THAT SAY?

WHAT IF IT DECREASES, WHAT DOES THAT SAY?

>> IF IT INCREASE WHAT IS YOU SHOULD LOOK AT IS THE DEFINITELY FOR ONE CANDIDATE, DEFINITELY TRUMP OR DEFINITELY HARRIS BECAUSE IT LIKELY MEANS THAT TURN-OUT WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE SOME PORTION OF THOSE UNDECIDEDS ARE JUST NOT GOING TO SHOW UP.

IF IT'S SO NEGATIVE, THEY WON'T SHOW UP.

AND REALLY WHAT YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT IS THEN THE REST OF THAT POLL, WHAT DO THE NUMBERS, YOU KNOW -- AGAINST ONE ANOTHER, WHAT DO THEY LOOK LIKE BECAUSE THAT WILL LIKELY DETERMINE THE OUTCOME.

>> ALL RIGHT, GOOD INFORMATION, PAUL BENTZ, HIGHGROUND, GOOD TO SEE YOU AGAIN.

THANKS FOR JOINING US.

>> THANKS THANKS FOR HAVING ME.

>> NEXT WEEK DON'T MISS OUR ONE HOUR AZ VOTES 2024 SPECIAL EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF ABORTION AND IMMIGRATION RELATED MEASURES AND VOTERS WILL BE ASKED TO CONSIDER ISSUES THIS FALL.

TUNE IN OR WATCH OUR LIVESTREAM ON THE AZ PBS NEW YOUTUBE CHANNEL OR ARIZONA PBS FACEBOOK PAGE.

>>> AND IF YOU'D LIKE TO BE A PART OF A LIVE STUDIO AUDIENCE FOR OUR HOUR-LONG SPECIAL ON OCTOBER 8th, USE THE QR CODE ON THE SCREEN TO SCAN FOR MORE INFORMATION.

THIS AZ VOTES SPECIAL FOCUSES ON TWO OF THE BIGGEST PROPOSITIONS ON THIS YEAR'S BALLOT.

IF YOU COULDN'T ATTEND IN PERSON, MAKE SURE TO TUNE IN, 7:00 P.M. NEXT TUESDAY OCTOBER 8th, RIGHT HERE ON ARIZONA PBS.

THE ARIZONA SCHOOL PERSONNEL ADMINISTRATOR'S ASSOCIATION RECENTLY RELEASED ITS ANNUAL TEACHER SURVEY, AND IT SHOWS, YET AGAIN, A TEACHER SHORTAGE IN THE STATE.

HERE TO TALK ABOUT THE SURVEY RESULTS IS JUSTIN WING, ASSISTANT SUPERINTENDENT OF HUMAN RESOURCES AT ASPAA.

GOOD TO SEE YOU, THANK FOR JOINING US.

IT'S A NEW REPORT, IT'S AN ANNUAL TEACHERS SURVEY.

BEFORE WE GET TOO DEEPLY INTO HERE, HOW WAS THE SURVEY CONDUCTED?

>> CERTAINLY.

A SURVEY GOES OUT TO ALL SCHOOL DISTRICTS AND CHARTER SCHOOLS IN ARIZONA TO THE HUMAN RESOURCES DEPARTMENT.

THOSE THAT DO THE HIRING OF TEACHERS AND WE GAIN THAT DATA FROM THEM.

>> TEACHER SHORTAGE, HOW MANY YEARS NOW HAS THIS SURVEY SHOWN THE TEACHER SHORTAGE?

>> WE BEGAN DOING THIS SHORTLY AFTER THE RECESSION YEARS, SO ABOUT 2015, AND I HATE TO SAY IT, BUT THE DATA KIND OF HAS BEEN STAGNANT, AND THAT'S NOT A GOOD THING.

>> RIGHT.

9 STRAIGHT YEARS.

SO 25% OF TEACHER VACANCIES REMAIN UNFILLED.

9 STRAIGHT YEARS OF TEACHER SHORTAGES.

WHAT'S GOING ON OUT THERE?

>> UNFORTUNATELY, INDIVIDUALS DO NOT WANT TO BECOME TEACHERS.

>> WHAT ARE YOU HEARING?

WHY?

WHAT IS THE REASON SOMETHING IN.

>> I THINK THE OPPORTUNITIES FOR HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES ARE PLENTY AND GRATEFUL FOR THAT AND I SAID BEFORE THAT FOR 13 YEARS AS A STUDENT, YOU'RE INTERVIEWING THE SCHOOL ENVIRONMENT AND THE WORKLOAD AND WORKING CONDITION OF A TEACHER, AND YOU'RE NOT SEEING THAT AS APPEALING AS IT MAYBE ONCE WAS.

AND SO YOU'RE CHOOSING A DIFFERENT AVENUE FOR A CAREER.

>> AND WE GET 52% OF VACANCIES ARE FILLED BY THOSE WITH NO ARIZONA CERTIFICATION.

TALK TO US ABOUT THAT.

>> IN 2017 ARIZONA LEGISLATION DID OPEN THE DOOR ON A LOT OF ALTERNATIVE PATHWAYS.

I DO SEE THAT AS A POSITIVE.

I DON'T KNOW WHERE WE'D BE WITHOUT THAT ALTERNATIVE PATHWAY.

IT REMOVED BARRIERS FOR INDIVIDUALS WHO MAY HAVE ALWAYS WANTED IN THEIR HEART TO BECOME A TEACHER BUT PURSUED A DIFFERENT DEGREE OR CAREER AND BREAKS BARRIERS FOR THEM TO BE ABLE TO CHANGE THEIR CAREER.

THAT'S PROBABLY THE BIGGEST EXAMPLE.

>> BUT DOES THAT -- I KNOW WE'VE HAD PEOPLE ON THE SHOW HERE CRITICIZING THAT, SAYING THESE PEOPLE AREN'T NECESSARILY QUALIFIED TO RUN A CLASSROOM.

DO THEY HAVE A POINT?

>> I THINK EVERYBODY BRINGS IN THEIR OWN LEADERSHIP AND THEIR OWN EXPERIENCES, AND WE DO SEE POSITIVES FROM THOSE INDIVIDUALS WHILE THEY -- THEY BRING IN REAL LIFE APPLICATION AND EXPERIENCES THAT CAN BE ENGAGING TO STUDENTS AND THEIR LEARNING.

>> WOULD YOU LIKE TO SEE THAT EXPANDED TO GET MORE OF THESE FOLKS IN THERE?

>> I THINK WHAT OUR DATA HAS SHOWN PARTICULARLY FROM 200020, YOU KNOW, A COUPLE OF YEARS AFTER THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE 2017 OPENING OF THE DOORS, WE'VE SEEN A GREAT INCREASE AND THAT WOULD BE ABOUT 50% OF OUR VACANCIES BEING FILLED BY ALTERNATIVE PATHWAYS, SO I THINK WE'RE PRETTY GOOD IN THERE.

THERE'S OTHER OPPORTUNITIES MAYBE TO ADDRESS THE TEACHER SHORTAGE.

>> LET'S TALK ABOUT THE OTHER OPPORTUNITIES.

HOW DO YOU ADDRESS RECRUITMENT?

HOW DO YOU GET PEOPLE INTERESTED?

HOW DO YOU GET THEM STARTED ON THIS CAREER?

>> ONE PATHWAY WE JUST MENTIONED IS THE ALTERNATIVE PATHWAYS AND DIFFERENT VERSIONS OF THAT OR DIFFERENT PATHS, SO THE RECRUITING ALTERNATIVE PATHWAYS IS ONE OF THEM.

PRETTY UNFORTUNATE TO SEE THE LEGISLATION THIS YEAR CHOSE NOT TO FUND THEIR TEACHER ACADEMY GRANT.

THAT WAS PUT IN PLACE BY THE FORMER GOVERNOR IN WHICH IT PROVIDED SOME SCHOLARSHIPS AND GRANT OPPORTUNITIES FOR INDIVIDUALS WHETHER THEY WERE A HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATE OR JUST CHANGE A CAREER OR WHAT NOT, TO GET A TEACHING DEGREE WITH LITTLE TO NO STUDENT DEBT, AND THAT HAS HELPED KEEP A STATUS QUO VERSUS GETTING WORSE.

>> YEAH.

BUT IT SOUNDS LIKE IT DIDN'T GET QUITE THE FUNDING THERE, SO IT COULD POSSIBLY EVEN GET WORSE.

>> IT NEEDS TO BE RENEWED.

>> AS FAR AS SALARIES, JUST IN GENERAL, HOW DOES ARIZONA COMPARE TO NEIGHBORING STATES?

I THINK I ARGUE WITH INDIVIDUALS A LITTLE BIT WE'RE EITHER 48 OR 51st OR 47th, WHATEVER REPORT YOU CHOOSE TO READ.

ULTIMATELY, WE'RE IN THE BOTTOM 5 NO MATTER WHAT REPORT.

>> WHY HASN'T WHAT CHANGED?

WE'VE SEEN SO MUCH MONEY PUT NEED OCCASION OVER THE YEARS.

WE'VE HAD MASS MARCHES AND MOVEMENTS, THE WHOLE THING.

WHY ARE WE STILL IN THE UPPER 40s, IF NOT 50?

>> WELL, WHEN YOU DIG A BIG HOLE, IT'S HARD TO GET OUT OF IT.

AND SO WE STILL HAVE A LOT OF PROGRESS IN ARIZONA BUT STILL IN THAT HOLE.

>> AS FAR AS RETAINING TEACHERS, WE TALKED ABOUT RECRUITING TEACHERS, HOW DO YOU RETAIN WHAT YOU'VE GOT?

>> THAT'S A STRUGGLE WHEN YOU HAVE 25% OF YOUR TEACHER VACANCIES REMAIN UNFILLED.

UNFORTUNATELY, AS THE REPORT SHOWS, SOME OF THAT GOES BACK ON EXISTING STAFF, ADMINISTRATION, TEACHERS SUPPORT STAFF, AND THAT'S A WORKING CONDITION, AS WELL.

>> RIGHT.

I WOULD IMAGINE TEACHING MORE CLASSES, TEACHING BIGGER CLASSES, THAT SORT OF THING.

>> TOP FIVE HIGHEST CLASS SIZE INSIDE THE NATION AND NOW YOU GET MORE KIDS ON TOP OF THAT, WHATEVER IS HIGHER IS HIGHER.

>> WHAT KIND OF IMPACT HAVE VOUCHERS HAD ON -- GOT MORE KIDS IN PRIVATE SCHOOLS RIGHT NOW.

DOES THAT AFFECT WHAT YOU'RE SEEING?

>> I MEAN TO A POINT.

I BELIEVE SOME STUDIES HAVE SHARED THAT 75% OF THE ESA FUNDS ARE GOING TO FAMILIES WHO NEVER ATTENDED PUBLIC SCHOOL, AND SO THAT'S FUNDING THAT COULD BE AFFORDED TO PUBLIC EDUCATION.

>> YEAH.

LAST QUESTION REAL QUICKLY, WHAT CAN REALCALLY BE DONE ABOUT THIS?

>> I THINK WE NEED AS A STATE BOTH SCHOOL WIDE AND LOCALLY AND AS A STATE, WE NEED LOOK AT INNOVATIVE WAYS TO LOOK AT HOW OUR WORKFORCE DESIGN IS.

WE ARE STILL IN THAT -- WE'RE STILL STUCK IN THE ONE TEACHER/ONE CLASSROOM MODEL.

AND I BELIEVE OUR NEW WORKFORCE GENERATIONS LIKE CORROBORATION, WORKING WITH ADULTS AND COLLEAGUES, WE NEED TO REALLY LOOK AT OUR OVERALL WORK HORSE DESIGN MODEL IN SCHOOLS.

I THINK THAT ARIZONA TEACHER ACADEMY GRANT WENT BACKWARDS.

WE WERE MAKING GOOD PROGRESS.

WE NEED TO INVEST IN INDIVIDUALS TO BECOME TEACHERS.

IT WAS ASTOUNDING HOW MANY FIRST-GENERATION INDIVIDUALS AND FAMILIES GRADUATED WITH THIS -- NOT ONLY WITH A SPECIAL FIRST GENERATION GRADUATE BUT ALSO INCREASING THE PIPELINE OF TEACHERS.

>> ALL RIGHT, JUSTIN, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> THANK YOU.

>>> THAT'S IT FOR NOW.

I'M TED SIMONS.

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

YOU HAVE A GREAT EVENING.