>> WELL, THANKS FOR JOINING US FOR EDITION OF NEXT UP.

CHARLIE BRENNAN AND RAY HARTMANN WITH YOU, AND WE'D LIKE TO WELCOME TO NEXT UP FOR THE FIRST TIME GREG MYRE WHO'S THE NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT FOR NATIONAL PUBLIC RADIO.

HE HAS COVERED 12 WARS, HE HAD BEEN STATIONED IN PLACES RANGING FROM MOSCOW TO JERUSALEM, JOHANNESBURG, AND BEYOND.

BUT MAYBE HIS GREATEST ACCOMPLISHMENT, HE'S A MEMBER OF THE PARKWAY HALL OF FAME.

LIKE MY COLLEAGUE RAY HARTMANN RIGHT HERE BECAUSE HE HAS TO ANSWER THAT ST. LOUIS, PARKWAY CENTRAL IS WHERE YOU, GREG MYRE, ATTENDED HIGH SCHOOL.

AM I RIGHT?

>> YOU'RE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT, CHARLIE.

>> SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER I DID, WE MIGHT ADD.

>> WELL -- >> BUT EVERYBODY DID, REALLY.

>> BUT CONGRATULATIONS ON ALL YOUR SUCCESS AND THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR JOINING US ON NINE PBS TO TALK ABOUT THIS HORRIFIC RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE, AND THE PRESIDENT WAS IN EUROPE TODAY.

CAN YOU GIVE US THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THERE?

>> RIGHT.

SO PRESIDENT BIDEN WAS IN BRUSSELS TODAY AND THIS IS REALLY A SORT OF MULTI-PART MISSION HERE.

THE LEADERS OF THE 30 NATO COUNTRIES WERE THERE.

THEY WERE TALKING ABOUT -- OBVIOUSLY LOOKING AT THE MILITARY ASPECT OF THIS AND THE WAY THAT HE'S BEEN ABLE TO BRING NATO TOGETHER, THE WAY NATO REALLY HAS BEEN MUCH MORE UNITED THAN ANYBODY HAD EXPECTED.

HE HAVE BEEN TALKS ABOUT HOW THE ALLIANCE IS SHOWING A LEVEL OF UNITY THAT THEY HAVEN'T SEEN SINCE THE COLD WAR ENDED 30 YEARS AGO.

SO WE HAD THAT PART OF IT TODAY.

HE'S ALSO HAVING A SUMMIT AT THE EUROPEAN UNION, UNLESS BRUSSELS, AND THAT'S SORT OF THE POLITICAL PART OF IT.

THEY'RE TALKING ABOUT SANCTIONS THERE, AND TOMORROW HE'S GOING TO GO TO POLAND AND SEE SOME OF THE REFUGEES, SO THE HUMANITARIAN COMPONENT OF IT.

THIS IS A VERY SIGNIFICANT TRIP IN TERMS OF KEEPING EUROPE UNITED AND ADDRESSING THE MILITARY, THE ECONOMIC AND THE HUMANITARIAN ASPECTS OF THIS CRISIS.

>> GREG, THIS IS YOUR 12th WAR THAT YOU'VE COVERED.

THIS HAS TO FEEL SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT, DOES IT NOT, FROM THE PREVIOUS 11?

I MEAN, THIS FEELS TO MOST PEOPLE OBSERVING IT VERY, VERY DIFFERENT, VERY DANGEROUS.

HOW DO YOU COMPARE THEM?

>> RIGHT, RIGHT.

WELL, RAY, THE OTHER WORDS, I WAS IN PLACES WHERE PEOPLE WERE SHOOTING.

I'M JUST SITTING THIS ONE OUT FROM MY HOME IN WASHINGTON.

A LOT OF MY COLLEAGUES ARE IN UKRAINE AND I'M IN REGULAR CONTACT WITH THEM, AND THE THING THAT, BOY, I HAVE TO TELL YOU, AND AS IT BEGAN, I HAVE SEEN THE RUSSIAN MILITARY IN ACTION BEFORE.

I WAS IN CHECHNYA IN THE 1990s, THE PLACE IN SOUTHERN RUSSIA WHICH WAS ACTUALLY PART OF RUSSIA, NOT A FOREIGN COUNTRY.

THE RUSSIANS, WHAT THEY DID TO GROSNY, WHAT WAS THE CAPITAL OF CHECHNYA, THE SMALL RUSSIAN REPUBLIC IN SOUTHERN WASH, THEY JUST BOMBED THE CAPITAL TO RUBBLE.

THEY DESTROYED ALMOST EVERY BUILDING THERE.

THEY REALLY WERE NOT CONCERNED ABOUT CIVILIAN CASUALTIES.

EVERYBODY WHO WAS THERE AND SAW IT IMMEDIATELY DREW A PARALLEL BETWEEN THOSE BLACK AND WHITE PICTURES WE'VE SEEN FROM WORLD WAR II, THE EUROPE CITIES THAT WERE ABSOLUTELY LEVELED DURING WORLD WAR II.

THERE REALLY HADN'T BEEN A SIMILAR -- LOTS OF HORRIBLE WARS AROUND THE WORLD, BUT REALLY NOTHING WHERE ENTIRE CITIES HAD BEEN COMPLETELY LEVELED BY AN ONSLAUGHT OF AIR STRIKES AND CONSISTENT ARTILLERY.

SO WE SAW THIS AGAIN WHEN THE RUSSIANS WENT INTO SYRIA TO HELP THE SYRIANS AND BOMBED ALEPPO IN 2015-2016 AND WE'RE SEEING IT AGAIN WHERE THEY'RE JUST FOUNDING UKRAINIAN CITIES.

I THINK THE PLAN WAS ON GO IN QUICKLY AND NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF RESISTANCE.

THEY'VE MET MUCH MORE RESISTANCE THAN THEY HAVE, SO THEY SORT OF STALLED AND STOPPED OUTSIDE THE CITIES AND ARE JUST UNLEASHING LONG RANGE ARTILLERY AND AIR STRIKES, HITTING A LOT OF CIVILIAN BUILDINGS, APARTMENTS, HOSPITALS, SCHOOLS.

IT IS QUITE DEVASTATING, SOMETHING WE JUST DON'T SEE VERY OFTEN.

>> GREG, YOUR FORMER EMPLOYER, THE "NEW YORK TIMES," HAS TALLIED SOME OF THE DAMAGE BY THE RUSSIANS IN UKRAINE AND THEY'VE COUNTED 33 HOSPITALS HAVE BEEN TARGETED AND DOZENS OF SCHOOLS AND ALMOST A THOUSAND APARTMENT BUILDINGS OR SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES.

NOW, THIS IS -- MAYBE YOU DON'T HAVE AN ANSWER FOR THIS, BUT AFTER RUSSIA LEVELS AN AREA, HOW DO THEY EXPECT TO GOVERN?

I MEAN, I THINK THEIR GAME PLAN IS TO HAVE UKRAINE PART OF RUSSIA, RIGHT?

SO WHAT ARE THEY GOING TO DO IF THERE'S LITERALLY LITTLE TO NO INFRASTRUCTURE LEFT?

>> YEAH, CHARLIE, THAT'S THE GREAT QUESTION BECAUSE THERE JUST DOESN'T SEEM TO BE A PLAN B HERE.

THEY COMPLETELY MISCALCULATED IN TERMS OF WHAT THEY -- THEY DIDN'T EXPECT TO MEET RESISTANCE.

THEY THOUGHT THAT THEY COULD PERHAPS INSTALL THEIR OWN LEADER.

THAT LEADER COULD THEN SAY HE'S INVITED THE RUSSIA MILITARY TO MAINTAIN ORDER AND THEN HOPEFULLY THAT COULD BECOME THE UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT.

BUT THERE'S JUST ALMOST ABSOLUTE RESISTANCE THAT YOU'RE SEEING IN UKRAINE.

NOT ONLY FROM ITS MILITARY, BUT FROM CIVILIAN MEN WHO HAVE VOLUNTEERED TO FIGHT AND OBVIOUSLY THE OTHER CIVILIANS ARE COMPLETELY OPPOSED TO THE RUSSIANS, EVEN IF THEY'RE NOT FIGHTING.

MILLIONS HAVE FLED THE COUNTRY, OTHERS ARE STILL IN PLACE.

BUT IT'S JUST IMPOSSIBLE TO IMAGINE HOW, IF THE RUSSIANS WOULD EVEN FIND SOMEBODY WHO WANTED TO TAKE OVER THE COUNTRY, THAT PERSON WOULDN'T BE -- HAVE A -- BE ABLE TO FORM A GOVERNMENT, WOULDN'T HAVE THE INFRASTRUCTURING WOULDN'T HAVE SECURITY FORCES.

IF NOT FOR THE RUSSIANS.

AND THE RUSSIANS WOULD NEED MORE PEOPLE.

IN SOME SENSE, THE EASY PART IS GOING, INVADING AND TAKING OVER.

TRYING TO OCCUPY AND MAINTAIN IS WHAT'S REALLY HARD.

YOU NEED AN EVEN BIGGER FORCE.

IF YOU'RE A RUSSIAN FORCE IN THE CAPITAL KYIV, FOR EXAMPLE, AND YOU GO TO A RESTAURANT AND ORDER TEA, WOULD YOU WANT TO BE DRINKING THAT TEA?

WOULD YOU JUST THAT THERE'S NOTHING IN THAT TEA THAT YOU SHOULDN'T BE DRINKING?

WOULD YOU WANT TO BE WALKING ON THE STREETS TRUSTING THATTURE NOT GOING TO BE SNIPED AT BY AN INSURGENT?

CLEARLY PUTIN DOESN'T SEEM TO HAVE A PLAN B HERE.

>> GREG, PLAYING OFF THAT IRRATIONALITY THEME, DO EITHER YOU OR YOUR SOURCES HAVE A THEORY DEVELOPING ABOUT VLADIMIR PUTIN'S STATE OF MIND, ANYWHERE RANGING FROM HAVING LOST IT ON ONE END TO BEING A KGB-SAVVY FELLOW THAT KNOWS HOW TO LOOK LIKE HE'S LOST HIS MIND, OR SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE?

DO YOU HAVE ANY INSIGHT THAT YOU CAN SHARE WITH US?

>> SO I'M CERTAINLY NOT GOING TO PRETEND I KNOW WHAT'S GOING ON INSIDE VLADIMIR PUTIN'S HEAD, BUT WE HAVE -- HE'S BEEN IN POWER FOR OVER 20 YEARS, SO WE HAVE A PATTERN OF BEHAVIOR.

I THINK ONE OF THE MOST STRIKING THINGS, I'VE ALWAYS SORT OF HAD THIS THEORY THAT IF SOMEBODY'S IN POWER FOR MORE THAN A DECADE, THEY KIND OF STOP LISTENING TO EVERYBODY AROUND THEM.

THEY GET TO THAT POINT WHERE THEY JUST THINK THEY HAVE ALL THE ANSWERS, THEY DON'T NEED TO LISTEN TO ANYBODY.

AND WE'VE SEEN THIS WITH PUTIN, THAT AS HIS CIRCLE HAS GOTTEN SMALLER AND SMALLER AND IT SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN EXACERBATED BY COVID.

HE'S REALLY BEEN PHYSICALLY ISOLATED AND WE'VE SEEN THESE REALLY DRAMATIC PICTURES WHERE HE'S MEETING WITH SOME OF HIS TOP ADVISORS, HIS CLOSEST ADVISORS, HIS DEFENSE MINISTER, TOP SECURITY PEOPLE, AND THEY'RE SITTING AT THE OPPOSITE END OF THIS SORT OF COMICALLY LONG 30-FOOT TABLE.

IT JUST IS THE SORT OF EXPRESSION OF HOW ISOLATED HE'S BECOME.

AND, YOU KNOW, THE CIA DIRECTOR, BILL BURNS, HE SAID THIS PUBLICLY, BUT HE IS TALKED ABOUT, HE'S FOLLOWED PUTIN SINCE HE WAS AN AMBASSADOR THERE BACK IN THE MID 2000s, THAT HE'S SEEN PUTIN'S CIRCLE SHRINK, HE'S SEEN PUTIN'S SENSE OF -- THAT HE HAS THIS SENSE OF DESTINY, HE'S GOING TO RECREATE RUSSIA AS IT WAS UNDER THE SOVIET UNION OR UNDER THE CZARS.

SO IT'S NOT SO MUCH THAT THEY NECESSARILY THINK HE'S GONE CRAZY.

HE IS JUST BECOME MORE AND MORE ISOLATED.

HE'S MADE A LOT OF REALLY BAD ASSUMPTIONS AND CALCULATIONS, AND AGAIN, THE BIGGEST ONE WAS HE THOUGHT HE COULD GO INTO UKRAINE AND BE GREETED AS A LIBERATOR, NOT THAT HE IS MEET THIS RESISTANCE.

I DON'T THINK THAT THE NOTION, PEOPLE SPECULATING ON HIS PSYCHOLOGICAL STATE, I'M NOT SURE THAT YOU CAN DO THAT EFFECTIVELY, BUT IT'S REALLY JUST WHAT WE CAN SEE ARE THESE ABSOLUTELY BIG MISCALCULATIONS THAT HE'S MADE.

>> HOW WAS THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE DIFFERENT FROM WHAT IT DID IN CRIMEA?

>> RIGHT.

SO AS SOMEBODY SAID TO ME, HE THOUGHT HE WAS GOING TO GET CRIMEA IN 2014 AND NOT WHAT HE NOT IN CHECHNYA IN 1994.

WHEN HE WENT INTO CRIMEA IN 2014, HE DID IT STEALTHFULLY.

IT WAS VERY MUCH LIKE VLADIMIR PUTIN, KGB OFFICER.

THE RUSSIANS, RIGHT AFTER THE OLYMPICS IN SOCHI, RUSSIA, IN 2014, THESE SO-CALLED LITTLE GREEN MEN IN GREEN MILITARY UNIFORMS BUT NO INSIGNIA SHOWED UP IN CRIME ME YEAH AND TOOK OVER.

-- CRIME ME YEAH AND TOOK OVER.

THEY WEREN'T EVEN IDENTIFYING THEMSELVES OR DECLARING THEMSELVES AS RUSSIAN MILITARY.

THEY TOOK OVER, THERE'S SORT OF A DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN.

RUSSIA HAD A NAVAL BASE IN CRIMEA, EVEN THOUGH IT'S PART OF UKRAINE, SO IT SORT OF WAS OVER BEFORE IT BEGAN.

THERE WAS REALLY NO SHOOTING, NO FIGHTING, AND IT WAS AN AREA THAT RUSSIA DOES HAVE A LONG HISTORY GOING BACK CENTURIES.

SO THERE'S A LOT OF ETHIC RUSSIANS, RUSSIAN SPEAKERS THERE.

SO THIS IS THE KIND OF THING T HE SAID WE DID THIS IN CRIMEA, LATER THAT YEAR HE DID IT IN EASTERN UKRAINE IN THIS DONBASS REGION AND THAT TURNED OUT TO BE TOUGHER AND THERE'S BEEN FIGHTING THERE FOR THE PAST EIGHT YEARS, BUT CRIMEA WAS KREERL THE TEMPLATE HERE -- CLEARLY THE TEMPLATE HERE, A QUICK BLOODLESS TAKEOVER.

HE WAS PLANNING TO DO THAT WITH THE WHOLE COUNTRY.

WHOLE, THE WHOLE COUNTRY OF 4 MILLION UKRAINIANS, THEIR OWN DEMOCRACY, THEIR OWN CULTURE, CLEARLY THEY WANT NO PART OF THIS.

>> GREG, TOPIC A AROUND A LOT OF LIVING ROOMS, A LOT OF DINNER TABLES IN OUR TOWN AND THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY, IS THE QUESTION ARE WE GETTING TOO CLOSE TO A NUCLEAR CONFLICT.

I KNOW THERE WAS TALK TODAY ABOUT WHAT TO DO IF, FOR EXAMPLE, THIS TURNS INTO CHEMICAL OR BIOLOGICAL WARFARE SHORT OF NUCLEAR WARFARE, WHICH IS, YOU KNOW, KIND OF -- MAYBE SPLITTING HAIRS.

WHAT IS YOUR FEELING, AGAIN EITHER YOURSELF OR PEOPLE YOU TALK TO, ABOUT WHETHER THAT'S ACTUALLY SOMETHING WE SHOULD BE THINKING IS A REAL POSSIBILITY?

>> SO RAY, IT'S EXTRAORDINARY THAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THIS IN 2022 IN A CONFLICT IN EUROPE.

BUT WE'VE SEEN PRESIDENT BIDEN, WE'VE SEEN MEMBERS OF THE U.S. GOVERNMENT, MEMBERS OF NATO, STARTING TO TALK ABOUT THIS.

THEY ARE CONCERNED.

WE DON'T HAVE ANY EVIDENCE -- AND EVERYBODY I'VE TALKED TO, WE DON'T HAVE ANY HARD EVIDENCE THAT RUSSIA IS NAPLANNING AN ATAKE LIKE THIS.

THE CONCERN -- ATTACK LIKE THIS.

THE CONCERN, THOUGH, IS RUSSIA HAS A DIFFERENT APPROACH THAN THE UNITED STATES ON THIS.

RUSSIA HAS PUT A LOT OF EFFORT FOR SO-CALLED TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS OR BATTLEFIELD NOOK YEAR WEAPONS.

THEY HAVE A SMALLER CHARGE, BUT THE BIG ONES YOU CAN DROP FROM A PLANE THAT CAN DEVASTATE A WHOLE CITY.

NONETHELESS, THEY ARE NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND RUSSIA ALSO HAS THIS MILITARY NOTION OF ESCALATING TO DE-ESCALATE.

IF YOU'RE IN A WEAK POSITION AND IT LOOKS LIKE YOU MIGHT BE LOSING, YOU USE SOMETHING DRAMATIC LIKE PERHAPS A BATTLEFIELD NUCLEAR WEAPON TO SHOCK EVERYBODY, TO SCARE EVERYBODY, TO RESET THE TREND OF THE WAR AND THAT THAT ALLOWS YOU THEN TO DE-ESCALATE OR PUTS YOU IN A BETTER POSITION.

SO THERE IS THAT CONCERN.

NOW, THE BIOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL FRONT, AGAIN, THESE ARE JUST TABOOS THAT HAVE NOT BEEN BREACHED IN GENERATIONS IN EUROPE.

NOW, IN SYRIA WHERE THE RUSSIANS HAVE FOUGHT ALONGSIDE PRESIDENT ASSAD, HIS GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN -- HAS USED CHEMICAL WEAPONS AT VARIOUS TIMES IN THAT CONFLICT.

SO THERE ARE DR -- THE MILITARY PEOPLE IN THE U.S. AND NATO ARE THINKING ABOUT IT, MAKING PLANS, TALKING ABOUT IT OPENLY, BUT AT THIS POINT, WE HAVEN'T SEEN ANY EVIDENCE OF AN ACTUAL PLAN.

>> THERE'S A NEW ARMAMENT IN OUR ARSENAL AND YOUEPORTED LAST WEEKEND ABOUT SOMETHING THAT'S LIKE A CAM KAMIKAZE DRONE THAT'S EASILY USED BY UKRAINE IN THE FIELD, MANUFACTURED BY US AND IT'S LIKE A ONE-WAY DRONE.

THERE'S NO RETURN TRIP.

THERE'S A GRENADE ATTACHED TO IT AND IT CAN BE SENT TO SOME SORT OF RUSSIAN TARGET WITH EASE.

SINCE YOU HAD THAT REPORT, I'VE SEEN OTHER ACCOUNTS SAYING WE'RE HAVING DIFFICULTY GETTING THESE KAMIKAZE DRONES TO UKRAINE.

WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT THAT?

>> RIGHT.

THEIR FORMAL NAME IS A SWITCHBLADE DRONE AND THERE'S A COUPLE VERSIONS OF IT, BUT THE SMALL ONE IS JUST FIVE OR SIX POUNDS.

A SOLDIER CAN PUT IT IN HIS BACKPACK, TAKE IT OUT ON THE BATTLEFIELD, PULL IT OUT, GUIDE IT BY HIMSELF UP INTO THE AIR, AND THEN THEY'RE KNOWN AS -- OR REFERRED TO AS KAMIKAZE DRONES BECAUSE WHAT THEY DO IS YOU JUST GUIDE THEM INTO THE TARGET AND THEY JUST CRASH AND EXPLODE.

THEIR CHARGE IS PRETTY SMALL, LIKE A SORT OF GRENADE ESSENTIALLY OR MAYBE A LITTLE LARGER THAN THAT.

BUT THE VALUE IS THAT IF ONE SOLDIER CAN DO IT, IT REQUIRES VERY LITTLE TRAINING AND THAT IT SEEN AS SOMETHING THAT COULD BE EFFECTIVE VERY QUICKLY.

THE UKRAINIANS HAVE BEEN USING LARGER DRONES THAT THEY RECEIVED FROM TURKEY AND THOSE HAVE BEEN QUITE EFFECTIVE IN HITTING RUSSIAN ARMOR COLUMNS.

AND AGAIN, THIS IS PART OF THE WAY THAT THIS WAR IS BEING FOUGHT WITH THE UKRAINIANS USING THESE SMALLER WEAPONS, THESE LITTLE DRONES OR THESE JAVELIN MISSILES THAT YOU PUT ON YOUR SHOULDER AND FIRE AND YOU CAN TAKE OUT A TANK OR A STINGER MISSILE, WHICH IS SIMILAR, YOU PUT IT ON YOUR SHOULDER, YOU FIRE, BUT IT'S FOR AIRCRAFT, FOR LOW-FLYING WAR PLANES OR HELICOPTERS.

SO THE UKRAINIANS ARE USING A LOT OF WEAPONS SUPPLIED BY THE U.S. AND SOME OTHER NATO MEMBERS, BUT IT ONLY TAKES ONE OR TWO PEOPLE TO HANDLE THIS.

IT'S PORTABLE, IT'S MOBILE, YOU CAN MOVE IT AROUND THE BATTLEFIELD.

STARK CONTRAST TO THE RETURNS HO HAVE APPROACHED THE CITIES IN BIG ARMORED COLUMNS, TANKS, ARMORED PERSONNEL CARRIERS, USING CUTTING EDGE WAR PLANES.

SO IT'S BEEN THIS SORT OF BIG WEAPONS VERSUS SMALL WEAPONS, BUT THE UKRAINIANS HAVE REALLY PUNCHED ABOVE THEIR WEIGHT AND BEEN MUCH MORE EFFECTIVE THAN ANYBODY PREDICTED JUST BECAUSE THEY'VE BEEN VERY MOBILE, VERY NIMBLE.

>> THERE HAVE BEEN CEASE-FIRE TALKS -- AND THAT'S USING THE TERM PRETTY LOOSELY, I THINK, BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE AND THEY SO FAR HAVEN'T GONE ANYWHERE THAT ANYBODY CAN SEE.

IS THAT SOMETHING THAT YOU CAN SEE -- FORESEE HAPPENING?

THE SOME DE-ESCALATION IN ANY WAY IN THE OFFING?

AND IF IT COULD BE IN THAT KIND OF FASHION, OR WOULD IT TAKE ANOTHER PARTY, WHETHER IT'S THE UNITED STATES OR FRANCE OR WHOMEVER, ISRAEL, TO GET INVOLVED?

>> YEAH, RAY, YOU KNOW, THEY'VE HAD SEVERAL ROUNDS WHERE THE UKRAINIANS AND THE RUSSIANS HAVE MET FACE-TO-FACE BY THEMSELVES, NO REAL MEDIATOR.

THEY REALLY HAVEN'T GONE ANYWHERE AND THE CONCERN IS THAT IT CAN EVEN BE A BIT OF A DEFLECTION BY PARTICULARLY THE RUSSIA SIDE HERE JUST TO SHOW THAT THEY'RE TALKING ABOUT PEACE, BUT THEY'RE NOT REALLY DOING ANYTHING OR PERHAPS THERE WILL BE CALLS FOR A CEASE-FIRE WHEN THE RUSSIANS NEED TO PAUSE AND REARM THEMSELVES.

SO I'M NOT SEEING ANYTHING POSITIVE ON THAT FRONT.

NOW, THAT SAID, WARS TEND TO DRAG ON AND ON AND GRIND ON AND ON UNTIL FINALLY ONE OR BOTH PARTIES BECOME EXHAUSTED AND BECOMES MORE WILLING TO MAKE A CONCESSION THAT COULD LEAD TO A PEACE.

BUT RIGHT NOW, IT'S REALLY HARD TO SEE.

PUTIN HAS GONE ALL IN.

HE CAN'T REALLY BACK OUT.

IF HE DOESN'T HAVE SOMETHING TANGIBLE HE CAN POINT TO AS A GAIN.

THE UKRAINIANS HAVE FOUGHT SO HARD.

THEY OBVIOUSLY WANT THIS TO END AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, BUT IF THE RUSSIA FORCES ARE THERE, IT'S HARD TO SEE THE UKRAINIANS SAYING, OKAY, WE'LL AGREE TO WHAT THE STATUS QUO WAS WITH RUSSIAN FORCES IN JUST PARTS OF OUR COUNTRY, BUT NOT ALL OF OUR COUNTRY.

SO NEITHER SIDE REALLY SEEMS TO BE IN A PLACE WHERE THEY COULD ACCEPT ROUGHLY WHERE WE ARE, AND I THINK THAT'S WHAT'S REALLY TROUBLING IS BECAUSE YOU CAN SEE THIS GO ON FOR A LONG TIME WITH THE RUSSIANS JUST POUNDING AWAY WITH THEIR HEAVY ARTILLERY, THE UKRAINIANS PUTTING UP STRONG RESISTANCE, GETTING ENOUGH WEAPONS FROM THE U.S. AND NATO TO KEEP GOING AND JUST THIS HORRIBLE, HORRIBLE, HUMANITARIAN CRISIS.

AGAIN, UKRAINE IS A COUNTRY OF 44 MILLION PEOPLE.

MORE THAN 10 MILLION PEOPLE, A QUARTER OF THE POPULATION, HAVE BEEN DISPLACED FROM THEIR HOME IN JUST A MONTH OF FIGHTING.

TODAY MARKS FOUR WEEKS SINCE THE WAR BEGAN.

>> LET ME ASK YOU, GREG, ABOUT SOME OF THE OTHER NUMBERS WE'RE GETTING THIS WEEK.

I THINK ONE REPORT SAID MAYBE 10, 12, MAYBE 15,000 RUSSIANS HAVE BEEN KILLED IN UKRAINE AND THAT'S SEEN AS HOPEFUL FOR UKRAINE BECAUSE IT SHOWS THAT THEY'RE MAKING A DENT IN THE RUSSIAN ARMY.

BUT, YOU KNOW, THOSE OF US WHO HAVE LIVED LONG ENOUGH AND HEARD NUMBERS THAT ARE INACCURATE COMING OUT OF VIETNAM AND IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN, MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT, I DON'T KNOW, UNSURE IF ANY OF THOSE NUMBERS CAN BE GIVEN ANY CREDENCE.

WHEN WE HEAR NUMBERS LIKE THAT, WHAT DO YOU THINK?

ARE THEY ACCURATE OR ARE THEY SOMETHING TO BE JUST CONSIDERED?

>> AT BEST, THEY'RE SORT OF SEMI-EDUCATED GUESSES, CHARLIE.

WE REALLY HAVEN'T HAD SOLID NUMBERS ON THAT.

EVEN THOSE NUMBERS, I THINK, IT'S KIND OF STRANGELY COMING FROM NATO AND NATO IS NOT IN UKRAINE, SO THEY'RE NO NO REAL POSITION TO COUNT.

THEY'RE TRYING TO DO THAT.

CLEARLY THERE HAVE BEEN A LOT OF RUSSIAN CASUALTIES, WE CAN SAY THAT.

I'M SURE IT'S IN THE THOUSANDS.

HOW MANY THOUSAND, WE DON'T KNOW, BUT IT'S A BIG NUMBER.

IT'S FAR MORE THAN RUSSIA OR ANYBODY EXPECTED.

BUT IN TERMS OF PUTTING A PRECISE FIGURE ON IT, WE DON'T KNOW.

THE UKRAINIANS AREN'T REALLY IN A GREAT PLACE TO COUNT.

THEY CAN OBVIOUSLY SEE SOME OF THE DEAD AND WOUNDED, BUT NOT ALL.

THE RUSSIANS WOULD BE THE ONES WHO COULD DO THAT.

ONE WEEK INTO THE WAR, THEY DID RELEASE SOME PRETTY ASTOUNDING FIGURES THAT 500 RUSSIAN TRIPS HAD BEEN KILLED IN THAT FIRST WEEK AND CERTAINLY THE FIGHTING HAS BEEN JUST AS INTENSE IF NOT MORE SO AND NOW WE'VE GONE THROUGH FOUR WEEKS.

SO AGAIN, I'M SURE IT'S SEVERAL THOUSAND RUSSIANS WHO HAVE BEEN KILLED AND THESE NUMBERS WE'RE HEARING, 7, 10, 12.

I JUST THINK NOBODY BUT THE RUSSIANS ARE IN A POSITION TO TALK ABOUT THAT AND THEY HAVEN'T RELEASED FIGURES SINCE THE FIRST WEEK.

THE UKRAINIANS HAVE JUST RELEASED SOME FIGURES OF THEIR CIVILIAN DEATHS, WHICH I THINK THEY MENTIONED JUST TODAY OR SO, THEY JUST TOPPED A THOUSAND, BUT THE UKRAINIANS HAVEN'T MENTIONED ANY TROOP CASUALTIES ON THEIR SIDE.

NEITHER SIDE HAS BEEN TREMENDOUS FORTHCOMING.

>> WHAT'S YOUR SENSE ABOUT HOW CHINA IS VIEWING THIS?

THERE'S BEEN ALL KINDS OF REPORTS ALL OVER THE PLACE FROM -- WELL, WHAT DO YOU THINK AT THIS POINT?

IS IT EVOLVING?

IS THERE SOMETHING YOU CAN SHARE THAT WOULD GIVE US A PERSPECTIVE ABOUT HOW THEY VIEW IT EITHER WITH REGARD TO THE RELATIONSHIP WITH RUSSIA OR POTENTIALLY HOW THEY THINK OF THIS AS -- WHEN THEY LOOK AT TAIWAN, ETCETERA?

>> RIGHT, RIGHT.

RAY, YOU KNOW, IT'S REALLY INTERESTING TO KNOW HOW CHINA IS THINKING ABOUT THAT.

WE DON'T HAVE A REAL CLEAR PICTURE AND I'VE CERTAINLY BEEN FOLLOWING OUR CORRESPONDENT IN CHINA AND OTHER CORRESPONDENTS IN CHINA WHO ARE TRYING TO FIGURE THAT OUT.

NOW, YOU KNOW, JUST THREE WEEKS -- I MEAN, THE OLYMPICS BEGAN THREE WEEKS BEFORE THIS WAR STARTED.

VLADIMIR PUTIN WAS IN BEIJING WITH THE CHINESE LEADER XI JINPING, THEY HAD A WARM AND FRIENDLY SUMENT.

THE CHINESE ANNOUNCED, BOTH SIDES ANNOUNCED THIS WAS A FRIENDSHIP WITHOUT LIMITS AS THEY PUT IT, AND THREE WEEKS LATER RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINES TH THAT.

SO THAT LEAVES YOU WITH A TROUBLING CONCLUSION, EITHER CHINA KNEW THIS INVASION OF UKRAINE WAS COMING AND DOESN'T SEEM TO BE BOTHERED BY IT, OR IT DIDN'T KNOW, WHICH IS TO SAY THEY DON'T REALLY KNOW WHAT RUSSIA IS UP TO.

NEITHER ONE OF THOSE CONCLUSIONS IS VERY REASSURING.

NOW, LOGICALLY, YOU HAVE TO THINK CHINA IS PRETTY UNCOMFORTABLE BY THIS FOR A COUPLE REASONS.

NUMBER ONE, THEY'RE SEEING HOW HARD THIS FIGHT IS, AND SO OBVIOUSLY THEY'RE THINKING, HMM, WHAT DOES THAT SAY ABOUT TAIWAN, WOULD WE MEET THAT KIND OF RESISTANCE IF WE TRIED TO TAKE OVER TAIWAN, NUMBER ONE.

BUT I THINK PERHAPS THE LARGER ISSUE FOR CHINA IS THE ECONOMY IS WHAT'S SO IMPORTANT.

THEY'VE BUILT THEIR POWER AND THEIR SUCCESS ON HAVING THIS EVER-EXPANDING ECONOMY AND THEY'RE HITTING SOME ROUGH PATCHES BECAUSE, FOR VARIOUS REASONS, COVID BEING CERTAINLY ONE OF THEM.

SO THEY'RE VERY NERVOUS ABOUT THEIR ECONOMY BEING DERAILED, AND IF THEY SEE WHAT'S HAPPENED TO RUSSIA WHERE THE U.S. AND NATO AND OTHER COUNTRIES WERE ABLE TO SANCTION RUSSIA OVERNIGHT, JUST LIKE FLIP A SWITCHING AND IMPOSE MUCH, MUCH TOUGHER SANCTIONS AND UNIFIED SANCTIONS THAN ANYBODY ANTICIPATED, THAT'S GOT TO SCARE THE CHINESE TO SAY, WHOA, IF WE FACE THAT KIND OF HIT, THAT WOULD REALLY DAMAGE OUR ECONOMY, REALLY UNDERMINE OUR PLANS AND WHAT'S IMPORTANT TO US.

SO IT'S GOT TO BE GIVING THEM A PAUSE, BUT THEY'RE TRYING TO WALK THIS LINE OF NOT CONDEMNING THE RUSSIANS, SORT OF BLAMING THE WEST FOR PROVOKING RUSSIA, BUT I -- I'M SURE THEY'RE VERY UNCOMFORTABLE ABOUT THIS.

>> GREG, WE ONLY HAVE ABOUT A MINUTE OR SO TO GO.

BRIEFLY, LAST WEEKEND ALSO, YOUR NATIONAL PUBLIC RADIO REPORTERS TOLD US THAT 44,000 AFGHANS HAVE APPLIED FOR WHAT'S CALLED HUMANITARIAN PAROLE, BUT THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION HAS ONLY OKAYED 200.

TODAY THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION SAID THEY'LL BRING IN 100,000 UKRAINE REFUGEES, NO PROBLEMS WITH THAT, BUT IS THE UNITED STATES DRAGGING ITS FEET WHEN IT COMES TO AFGHAN?

HAVE WE FORGOTTEN ABOUT THEM, AFGHANISTAN?

>> THESE REFUGEE PROGRAMS ALWAYS MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND I DON'T THINK THAT'S WHAT'S GOING ON.

I DON'T THINK THERE'S AN INTENTIONAL DRAGGING OF THE FEET.

THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION IS FULLY SUPPORTIVE, WE'RE NOT FINDING OPPOSITION OR RESISTANCE, BUT IT'S JUST MOVED VERY, VERY SLOWLY AND IT'S TAKING PEOPLE A LONG TIME TO GET SETTLED.

I KNOW SOME OF THE PEOPLE ARE STILL IN HOTELS OR THINGS LIKE THAT AND HAVE NOT GOTTEN THE PAPERWORK THEY NEED FOR -- TO START WORKING AND BECOME INTEGRATED IN AMERICAN LIFE.

>> CAN'T THANK YOU ENOUGH FOR JOINING US FOR NEXT UP.

WE MENTIONED EARLIER THAT YOU'RE ONE OF THE GREAT PRODUCTS AMONG MANY OF THE PARKWAY SCHOOL SYSTEM -- >> I HAVE A QUESTION.

WHAT CLASSES DID YOU TAKE AT PARKWAY THAT I DIDN'T TAKE THAT PREPARED YOU TO DO THIS?

I MISSED IT?

>> ALSO, GREG SPENT TWO YEARS AT MERAMEC COMMUNITY COLLEGE.

IS THAT NOT A FACT?

>> THAT'S TRUE, THAT'S TRUE.

>> SO A SHOUTOUT FOR MERAMEC COMMUNITY COLLEGE.

FANTASTIC.

THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR THE TIME YOU SHARED WITH RAY AND ME AND ALL OF OUR VIEWERS.

GREAT TO HAVE YOU BACK IN ST. LOUIS IF ONLY THROUGH THE NINE PBS AIR WAIVES.

LET'S STAY IN TOUCH, GREG.

>> MY PLEASURE.

ANYTIME, CHARLIE.

>> THANKS, EVERYBODY.

WE'LL CATCH YOU NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

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