>>Good morning and welcome to Global Perspectives.

I'm David Dumke.

Today we're joined by Hakan Ozoglu, a professor of history, and the director of the Middle East Studies Program at the University of Central Florida.

Welcome to the show Dr. Ozoglu.

>>Good to be here.

Thank you for inviting me.

>>So you just returned from an extended trip to - to Turkey.

We've read a lot about Turkey having problems because of the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Can you tell me a little about what the impact on Turkey is of that conflict?

>>Well, the impact is huge in many ways.

Economy is one of the most important one.

After this COVID issue, Turkey was already struggling.

And Turkey,the biggest problem that they have of this war between Ukraine and Russia is that Turkey has a close relationship with both countries.

Turkey sells drones to Ukraine, for example, and then buys as 400 missiles from Russia.

So it seems that Turkish government caught unprepared.

And Turkey's also buys a lot of from both countries.

More than half of Turkish grain comes from these two countries.

The war cause that trade to be interrupted.

Now, since that interrupted Turkish agricultural economy is not at a level to sustain itself anymore.

There are many reasons for it, but I'm not going to go into it The - the grain prices in Turkey skyrocketed.

So the bread loaf of bread the loaf of bread for the Turkish people are the main food that they eat.

So it - it went almost double and tripled in such a short time because of this war between the two countries.

So this is just one example of how the war affected the daily lives of the people on the street.

>>What is -- What has President Erdogan done in terms of posturing and - and talking to Moscow and talking to Kiev and talking to Western Europe and the US, who are very much on Ukraine Ukraines side right now.

>>It's very hard for President Erdogan to negotiate himself out of this because, as I said, Turkey has direct relations with both countries.

And the both countries now are fighting.

Turkey is trying to be as neutral as possible, as NATO member Turkey knows that they have to somehow side with Ukraine and be against the war.

At the same time, Turkey has a lot of very close especially President Erdogan has a lot of close relations with Russia and Russian government and President Putin.

>>This is despite Turkey, of course, being a traditional adversary of Russia from hundreds of years.

So how does this affect public opinion?

And, you know, where are the Turkish people feeling right now?

>>They are confused.

That's a very good question.

They are very confused at the one hand.

Russia from the Ottoman times is a main adversary to Turkish state and Ottoman Empire and Turkish Republic.

That's why Turkey became the member of NATO to begin with.

But Erdogan President Erdogan has policies to somehow have options against NATO and United States, showing that I can have a close relations even with the other side of the fence, meaning Russia And those who support Erdogan and Erdogan's policies, who are not blindly following him, are very confused.

And those who are in the opposition to the government are dead against it because they are very suspicious of Russia and President Putin's aims.

So the confusion, I would say, is at the highest level at this point.

But if - if they take - I don't remember if there is any census or poll taken about these things, but I would say more than 80% of the people are not approving Turkey's being that close to Russia and and somehow being adverse to the NATO interest.

>>So why did President Erdogan tend to decide to grow closer to President Putin?

>>I think President Putin and Erdogan has some personal friendship.

Their personalities are very similar I would say not - not the power that they possessed in the world stage.

But at the same time, President Erdogan wants to have an alternative to the West that they cannot push them around.

So at least that's the rhetoric presenting to people in Turkey saying that we need alternatives The other alternative is that the Shanghai organization, that they are some flirting with the idea that they could be a member or a full member of that.

So that's - that's international politics.

But Turkey's interests are very intricately involved with the interests of Russia.

I mean, NATO that it seems that rapprochement between Turkey and Russia is just a one government deal.

If this current government is gone.

>>So it's very personal based.

>>It is a very personal base.

Anything in Turkish foreign - foreign policy is very personal.

>>So how do you explain?

So we're presuming then that NATO's still important to President Erdogan's calculation, despite this relationship with - with Putin.

Yet at the same time you saw him this summer delay Finland and Sweden joining NATO because he was he was vocally opposed to it before he eventually agreed to - to let them in.

What - How do you explain that?

>>Well, it's - it - it is very easy to explain Erdogan is playing politics, because Erdogan as - as - as, you know, the United States canceled F-35 fighter planes sell to Turkey.

So Turkey is thinking that this is an opportunity, well Erdogan is thinking that this is an opportunity to negotiate with the West, especially the United States.

Now, Erdogan realizes that F-35 is not going to be possible, at least in the short run.

So they're trying to negotiate using Finland issue as as a - as a bargaining chip to get F-16s.

So deep down, they're using PKK terrorists or the Kurdish insurgents and anything that they label as terrorist harboring, harbored by Finland, not Finland but Sweden.

What they're saying is that - but deep down, the idea is they're trying to negotiate with the United States.

>>So when you have these different variables, you have President Erdogan flirting with China, dealing with Russia, trying to deal with the West.

He's also made moves in Syria that upset United States, among others, and in Libya and in other places.

How do you explain this foreign policy?

>>It's not explainable.

There is no logic to it.

I think the governor, the current government in Turkey is reacting impulsively.

Same for Greece, for example.

Currently the relations with Greece is very impulsive based.

At the same time, it is directed towards the internal politics.

The elections are coming next summer and President Erdogan and the current party in power seize any opportunity to raise their base by using this external threats as - as - as - as a place that they can raise their standing among people.

But it's not working well because Turkish economy is in such a terrible shape that the base that there is some poll shows that Erdogan's votes are down from 30%, even not even 50.

He needs at least 51%, 50%, one to to get elected but it is not even close to it.

So the government is doing anything they can, especially international politics, because internally economy is not doing well.

There are a lot of problems in Turkey.

So if they can turn their direction to external politics, they're hoping they can gain some votes.

>>It seems, from studying Turkey even a little that the biggest issue is inflation.

And having just - just been to Turkey to different parts of the country, how is that affecting people's day to day lives?

Because you hear a lot about inflation even in the U.S., a lot of this is global phenomenon.

But in Turkey, it seems much, much higher and more pronounced.

>>Let me put it this way, the minimum wage in Turkey can only have in Istanbul, let's say one of the big towns can only - you can only pay your rent with minimum wage.

Forget about food or anything else.

So in that sense, it is also important to know these statistics.

More than 50% of workers in Turkey work for minimum wage.

And the rest, half of the rest is even below minimum wage, but they're not accounted for.

So we don't have the record for it.

We just know it.

And on the 10% and 15% of people in recent polls, I think they said that they can somehow survive.

So that economy, the inflation is unpredictable and it's going it's spiraling.

The biggest problem for for the government is that people do not believe in statistics that they issue.

They say, 80% inflation, for example.

Yet the alternative independent sources put it like 182%.

And people believe in the higher inflation because once they go to the market, they know that 80% inflation yearly inflation is a big lie.

So it's very easily the people can know that it's not 80%, but close to actually in certain goods 300%.

>>So this obviously is affecting housing.

You just mentioned the food situation, fuel and everything.

This is just it's hard in every way or... >>At the fuel, it triggers everything.

The fuel, for example, last year around this time was, let's say, $1.

I'm just making it up because conversion rate, I don't want to trouble with you.

Now it's $4 for the same.

So it's four times more expensive.

It is four times more expensive.

That means that the farmer can not farm because they need - they need to afford - they cannot afford just the - the gas for their equipment.

And if they cannot farm, then the food production goes down.

If the food production goes under prices, it will double, triple, quadruple.

And people salaries are not there.

The - the I would say that at least 20 to 25% of the people who are looking for jobs can not find job.

And other 10 to 15% are not even looking.

So the numbers are staggering.

If you really, if you really think of it.

And then the rhetoric by the government is that all Europe is much worse the US is much worse.

The problem with the government is that people can follow Internet, they can follow their friends and family members, let's say in Germany, for example.

And they - they know that that's not true.

So the credibility of the government goes down.

>>For President Erdogan has been pretty - pretty wily in being able to survive as long as he has in office as prime minister and as president.

And he actually changed the system along the way.

What is he done to try to respond to this challenge?

>>He ignores it, he denies it, that they exist.

There is nothing else that he co because the numbers are out there and he is - The worst of all is the election is coming.

So if he if he accepts the problem, he promised that if he change the system, if the system change to the presidential system, everything would be much better.

Of course, everything is much, much, much worse for the people.

And if he says that “I made a mistake, let's go back to the old system.

” That's not his character.

He's not going to do that.

And then he just keeps denying it.

So we do not know if he knows and knowingly denies it or he is clueless about what's what's out there.

That's - that's what we don't know.

>>But this is was a very popular president at certain points, even even after the coup attempt that that failed to remove him.

Does he still have a base?

>>He does have a base.

He does have a base.

And I would challenge that.

People who think that he can get less than 30%, I would challenge them that I think he has a solid 30% base that they follow, follow him because he's a very charismatic leader, despite the fact that that 30% is the those are the ones that are affected by his policies negatively the most.

So he has that kind of base.

And then but that's not enough.

He needs political alliances.

We do not know really if he can get that kind of alliances, because the other parties against him, the opposition parties, are now united just against him so that they can take him down and go back to the old system of parliamentary system as opposed to presidential system.

So I was going to ask you, you can't beat something with nothing.

And so you're saying that these different parties that have different ideological beliefs have come together under one ideology-- >>Exactly.

>>--which is defeating the president.

>>Which is the next danger, because once they accomplish doing that, then the infighting will start.

And then we do not know if the things would go for the better or for the worse.

>>So is the AK Party.

President Erdogan's party is it still the most popular in terms of numbers and percentage?

>>In terms of number and percentage, the opposition party, People's Republican Party coming very close to it historically, this has never been this close, but Erdogans party is still that with that solid 30% at the top.

>>You know, when he was elected, a lot of people in the West, including different U.S. administrations, saw him as a model for democracy in the Islamic world, particularly because the AK party had a roots with the Muslim Brotherhood and was an Islamist party.

Is it an Islamist party?

And what do you say to those today after?

>>Well he presents himself as such and and by doing so, he has a huge following.

Obviously, for example, the inflation goes up, but he still reduces the interest rate in the banks, well in the central bank at least, saying that this isn't Islamic politics It dictates that we have to do this.

But in reality, the private banks loans are 30 to 40%, even when it's higher.

So even there, he lost his credibility, not among that 30%, but as I said, there was another 30% He was once very popular in Turkey and in the Middle East, too as a beacon of a government that could be Islamist not necessarily Islamist, but.

>>He describes it as like the Christian Democrats and-- >>Exactly.

Yeah, yeah, exactly.

But the politics of the day dictates that it doesn't work that way, especially in the financial system because Turkey as a financial system is almost bankrupt.

The health system, education system are collapsing very readily.

Doctors are leaving.

It's very hard to find medicine.

I'm drawing a very dark picture.

But since I came from there and I know the people in middle and upper middle class are collapsing, yet there is almost 9 to 10% of the people are thriving and their money is going up.

So if you go to the restaurants in Istanbul, for example, the most expensive one, you would still see it full.

But that doesn't mean that the 80% and 90% of-- >>A lot less people who can do that.

>>Much, much less so the the the middle class is disappearing, if already not.

The retirement pensions are in terrible shape.

There is no way with retirement money people can forget about paying a rent.

They would buy basic food and survive.

So the anger is growing.

>>This is kind of a philosophical question, but for a long time - and it wasn't.

It included Erdogan, but it was all his predecessors, too kind of the model for Turkey for many people, the consensus belief was for Turkey to become part of the EU, part of really the Western European economy.

What's the vision today?

And is that previous vision completely, completely dead?

>>It's not dead, it's in the backburner, but Turkey realized that with this economy and then and and the new system, the presidential system, power being controlled by one person, be it Erdogan or someone else, it's not compatible.

So the current government put it in the backburner and there's still - they wouldn't say no If EU would accept them, but they know EU will not accept them.

So that's why they're just they're not pushing it hard.

They did not invest in this idea anymore.

So they're thinking the alternative could be talking to other parts of the wo but they know, even the government knows the current government knows that their interests lie with EU and and Europe and the United States too.

>>Is that just because of the longstanding economic, military and other relations?

>>Yes, definitely.

>> Cant just walk away.

>>No, you can't.

And you cannot walk away from NATO for one simple reason.

All the weapons systems were adjusted to NATO.

If you want to change the whole things, it will take decades to adjust to the Russian systems you can have S-400s but that's it.

There's nothing else you can do.

>>But we're talking about Turkey from a Turkish perspective.

But I want to - want you to kind of move from the other side so if you're the Biden administration or you're the leaders of EU countries, Germany or France or the UK, how do you deal with with Erdogan right now?

Where - do hedge your bets, wait for better leadership or just ride it out?

>>That's exactly what they're trying to do now.

They do not care about his for as long as it it does not really hit them hard Like Erdogan tried to negotiate with Europe by allowing the the the Syrian refugees pass to Greece and European countries.

He gives a pass.

So that he use it as a negotiation chip.

Then they stepped in.

But other than that, it's only the rhetoric for Biden or European powers to to condemn Erdogan, because they still can get what they want from - from Erdogan.

Erdogan is a very important figure as a dealing.

It's cheaper to deal with one man than the huge parliament.

>>Right.

But you're describing the change in system on power has been consolidated a lot in him especially since the last coup attempt in which the military members of the military were involved, even if not the top leadership, but that that allowed him to replace a lot of the military officers down the line.

The military was traditionally seen as willing to intervene,in Turkish governance when necessary.

So what's to stop Erdogan from not not having an election altogether, not recognizing the results?

>>Nothing to tell you the truth.

Perhaps the foreign pressure, that's probably that's probably And the fear that the people internally would not take it that lightly because you don't know how they would react.

But that's a debate in Turkey now among circles that they say what happens, what force can remove him here?

When President Trump entertained the idea of not leaving, there are other forces to balance his desire out.

But in Turkey there is nothing.

He is the he is a one man show, he's he controls perhaps not technically, but in practically all branches of the government.

So if he says that “I am I, I don't accept this result, ” which it did he did in municipal elections in Istanbul, for example, and they had to do the election over again.

>>But he lost again.

>>He lost again a huge margin as opposed to 13,000.

He lost it by 800,000.

So he knows that there is-- >>There's limits.

>>There is limits.

So I think also opposition learned their lesson, how to monitor elections and have to pressure the government.

So opposition is very hopeful that they would they would win.

But they also know that Erdogan is a very skillful politician and very charismatic They are afraid in the last seco he would take.

>>Some kind of dramatic, dramatic move.

Yet he has had, you know, endurance and you did have a lot of growth in the Turkish economy for much his time in office.

If he left, if he accepted defeat in election, the system you're describing of consolidated power, what's to say that someone who worse would come to power?

>>Unless the system change that's that's that's possible.

Erdogan created the system.

But the system of of this magnitude that gives that kind of power to one person very corruptible.

So it is possible that if the system doesn't change and next person will emerge with that kind of power and then move it to the perhaps to either direction.

>>Wouldnt Erdogan himself say, though “I've only made moves necessary to move Turkey forward?

” >>Well, of course they all say that.

So he will say it and he's saying it.

This is the - this is the only way to to move forward in these international crises.

But as I said, even Erdogan, such a charismatic leader, has limits of convincing people if they can have food on the table, which many people really do not have.

Turkey came to that point.

One of the seven countries that can feed itself is one of the many countries that depend on for grain, for milk outside.

Even if you have money, there is a war.

You cannot you cannot purchase anything from outside.

So Erdogan is losing credibility.

>>So we just have a minute left.

So I wanted - you're a history professor and you studied the Ottoman period and Turkish Republic period.

Is there any parallel to this in Turkish history?

Modern Turkish as well?

>>Modern Turkish history?

I would I would say that the early Turkish history, when Mustafa Kemal was a very charismatic and also authoritarian leader, and then he changed the systems of the Ottoman Empire, perhaps more drastically than Erdogan did.

So parallels are there.

Definitely.

If a power is - if the system allows someone to do this, people will emerge.

>>So one could say Erdogan's using the tools he has and he's He has historic precedent for doing this.

And a lot of people would say Ataturk's a hero for the nation.

Ataturk is a hero for the nation because the education system and the people following that line of thinking established him as a as a hero.

But also keep in mind that Mustafa Kemal was a soldier and defeated many countries.

And to save, save the nation and create a nation, there is a huge difference between Mustafa Kemal being hero and Erdogan being, well considered hero.

So in that sense then they're not comparable.

>>Well, Hakan Ozoglu thank you so much for joining us today.

We appreciate your insight.

>>My pleasure.

>>And thank you for joining us.

We'll see you again next week on another episode of Global Perspectives.