>> CATHY: IT'S SEPTEMBER 1ST, AND FALL WEATHER IS NOWHERE TO BE FOUND.

MINNESOTA'S STATEWIDE DROUGHT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WITH MORE THAN 10% OF THE STATE NOW IN THE EXTREME DROUGHT CATEGORY.

WITH RECORD HEAT -- AND NO RAINFALL -- IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THERE IS NO RELIEF IN SIGHT.

KENNY BLUMENFELD IS A SENIOR CLIMATOLOGIST WITH THE STATE OF MINNESOTA.

HE'S ALSO A U OF M PROFESSOR.

GOOD TO SEE YOU.

>> GOOD TO BE ON.

>> Cathy: WOW, MORE THAN 10% OF THE STATE IN EXTREME DROUGHT.

THIS IS SEPTEMBER THE 1ST, WE'RE HEADING INTO FALL.

THIS DOES NOT LOOK GOOD.

>> NO, IT'S NOT A GOOD SITUATION AT ALL.

WE HAD THAT NICE LITTLE INTERLUDE FROM MID, LATE JULY INTO MIDAUGUST.

WE HAD SOME STATIONS THAT WERE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE 30-DAY PERIOD.

AND WE HAVEN'T HAD A DROP OF RAIN IN A LOT OF PLACES IN THE LAST THREE WEEKS, AND SO IT JUST STOPPED.

AND SO THIS IS AS BAD A DRY SPELL AS WE'VE HAD ALL YEAR.

>> Eric: WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR 60% OF TOP SOIL, SHORT OR VERY SHORT OF MOISTURE?

>> WELL, YOU KNOW, YOU NEED THAT TOP SOIL MOISTURE TO FEED THE CROPS.

AND WE ARE GETTING TOWARDS THE END OF HE GROWING SEASON, BUT WE'RE HEARING THIS ACROSS THE LAND THAT, YOU KNOW, FARMERS ARE COMING UP SHORT ON MOISTURE.

WE'VE HAD REPORTS OF, YOU KNOW, LIKE PEOPLE TURNING UP SOME SOIL AND IT'S JUST DUSTY.

TOUGH CONDITIONS.

NOW, WE SHOULD BE CLEAR.

IT'S NOT THE ENTIRE STATE.

THE ENTIRE STATE IS SHORT ON PRECIPITATION, BUT THE WESTERN -- PARTS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA, THEY'RE DOING BETTER.

THEY'VE HAD SOME BIG PRECIPITATION EVENTS.

THEY'RE NOT AS FAR BEHIND AS THE EASTERN AREAS, AND THAT INCLUDES EAST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE.

NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES AND THEN ALSO SOUTH OF ROCHESTER.

THOSE ARE THE AREAS IN EXTREME DROUGHT AND THOSE REALLY EXPANDED IN THIS PAST WEEK.

>> Cathy: WE SHOULD SAY THAT SEPTEMBER IS USUALLY A FAIRLY DRY MONTH, ISN'T IT?

IT CAN BE.

>> YEAH, I MEAN, IT'S THE KIND OF THE LAST OF THE WET MONTHS, BASICALLY.

YOU GO FROM MAY INTO SEPTEMBER, AND IT'S MARKS THE END OF THE GROWING SEASON.

SO YOU COULD GET, YOU KNOW, 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES IS KIND OF AVERAGE.

>> Eric: CAN WE CATCH UP?

>> I MEAN, YOU NEED A STEADY DIET -- >> Eric: MORE THAN 2 TO 3 INCHES TOO.

>> AND WE DON'T WANT TO CATCH UP ALL AT ONCE EITHER.

THAT'S THE PROBLEM WITH DROUGHT.

IT'S A LONG GAME.

IT'S A LONG GAME TO CATCH UP TOO.

AND THE PROBLEM IS IN THE WINTER TIME, THAT'S YOUR DRY SEASON.

AND TYPICAL WINTER MONTH HAS ABOUT A QUARTER OF THE PRECIPITATION OF A TYPICAL SUMMER MONTH.

SO MAKING UP THE DEFICITS IN WINTER CAN BE REALLY DIFFICULT AND AS YOU SAW LAST YEAR, WHEN YOU DO MAKE UP A LOT OF THOSE DEFICITS IN THE WINTER TIME, YOU END UP WITH FLOODING BECAUSE THERE'S NOWHERE FOR THE WATER TO GO.

WE HAD A CONVERSATION JUST TODAY ABOUT HOW LUCKY WE MIGHT BE FOR THE FLOODING WE HAD EARLY IN THE SEASON BECAUSE THAT ACTUALLY LIFTED THE RIVER LEVELS UP A IBIT AND MAYBE BOLSTERED US A BIT AND BUFFERED AGAINST SOME OF THE RIVER LEVELS DROPPING THAT WE'VE HAD RECENTLY.

>> Cathy: WE SHOULD SAY OF COURSE THAT IN THE FALL YOU DON'T WANT TO RECHARGE THOSE SOILS BEFORE THEY FREEZE UP.

>> YEAH, I MEAN, THERE'S A LOT OF CRITICAL THINGS THAT HAPPEN IN THE FALL.

YOU WANT THAT SOIL MOIST YOUR REPLENISHMENT.

YOU WANT GROUNDWATER REPLENISHMENT TOO.

AND IF YOU RUN INTO A DRY PERIOD THROUGH SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER, YOU MISS THOSE OPPORTUNITIES.

AND O THE IS TICKING DEFINITELY.

>> Eric: CAN YOU GET A DART BOARD OUT AND THROW US A WINTER FORECAST?

>> WELL, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SEES EL NINO COMING.

AND EL NINO, THIS WOULD BE UNFORTUNATE IF EL NINO PLAYS BY THE NORMAL SCRIPT, BECAUSE TENDS TO GIVE US MILD WINTERS WITH KIND OF LOW AMOUNTS OF SNOW, AND WE DON'T WANT SNOW DROUGHT GOING FROM REGULAR DROUGHT INTO SNOW DROUGHT, BECAUSE THAT WOULD PUT US IN A BAD SITUATION.

SO I CAN TELL YOU WHAT I WANT.

I WOULD LIKE STEADY PRECIPITATION THAT'S SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FOUR MONTHS.

>> Cathy: THAT'S WHAT YOU WANT.

>> THAT'S WHAT WE WANT.

NOT YET.

SOMETIMES YOU GET A BREAK IN THE PATTERN.

AND, RIGHT, AS OU SWITCH OUT OF FALL ND TRANSITION TOWARDS WINTER.

THE ATMOSPHERE KIND OF DECOUNSELS AND THE JET STREAM CHANGES POSITIONS AND THAT'S AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A PATTERN CHANGE.

AND HOPEFULLY -- WE HAD THAT LAST YEAR.

HOPEFULLY WE GET THAT THIS YEAR TOO.

AND UNFORTUNATELY WE'RE IN A POSITION WHERE WE KIND OF NEED ABUNDANT WINTER PRECIPITATION AGAIN TO GET US OUT OF WHERE