♪ INSTRUMENTAL MUSIC ♪ >> CATHY: ONE YEAR AGO TWIN CITIES RESIDENTS WERE DIGGING OUT FROM A TWO-DAY WINTER STORM THAT DROPPED MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW AROUND THE REGION.

2023 MAY HAVE STARTED WITH HUGE SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE YEAR ENDED WITH A WHIMPER AS MOST OF THE STATE EXPERIENCED A BROWN OR EVEN SLIGHTLY GREEN CHRISTMAS LAST MONTH.

GREEN CHRISTMAS.

MINNESOTANS ARE NEVER HAPPIER THAN WHEN WE ARE MAKING SUCH WILD WEATHER COMPARISONS.

HERE TO HELP US CONTINUE THIS CONVERSATION FOR ABOUT THE NEXT TEN MINUTES, OUR DYNAMIC WEATHER DUO.

MARK SEELEY, LONGTIME METEOROLOGIST AND CLIMATOLOGIST AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA, AND PAUL DOUGLAS.

WHEN HE'S NOT MAKING HIS MONTHLY "ALMANAC" VISITS, PAUL HEADS UP HIS OWN WEATHER COMPANY, PREDICT-IX, AND HIS WEATHER MUSINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE "STAR TRIBUNE" AND ON WCCO RADIO.

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO BOTH OF YOU.

>> HAPPY NEW YEAR TO YOU.

>> HAPPY NEW YEAR, CATHY.

>> Cathy: NICE TO HAVE YOU GUYS HERE.

WELL, I DON'T EVEN KNOW WHERE TO BEGIN.

THE WEATHER'S FF THE CHARTS, PAUL DOUGLAS.

I MEAN, ISN'T IT JUST KIND OF -- WHAT CAN YOU SAY?

>> I ENJOYED MOWING MY LAWN IN DECEMBER, JUST TO SAY I DID.

I WAS ACTUALLY MULCHING LEAVES ON MY LAWN BUT I THOUGHT IT WAS AN OUT-OF-BODY EXPERIENCE, AND JUST TWO DAYS AGO -- THREE DAYS AGO, ON THE nd DAY OF JANUARY, A DEAR FRIEND OF MINE WAS SAILING ON LAKE MINNETONKA.

>> Cathy: NO.

>> GEE.

>> YES.

AND, SO, IT'S A LITTLE BIT SURREAL FROM A METEOROLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE, AND A LITTLE UNSETTLING.

I MEAN, WE'VE HAD MILD FIRST HALVES OF WINTER BEFORE, BUT THIS IS TRULY OFF THE SCALE.

>> Eric: DID THE NOVEMBER/DECEMBER PERIOD SET A LOT OF RECORDS?

>> IT WASN'T RECORD-SETTING.

IT WAS THE SECOND WARMEST, THOUGH, IN STATE HISTORY, ERIC, SO THAT'S 129 YEARS OF DATA, THAT'S SECOND WARMEST NOVEMBER/DECEMBER.

WHAT WAS STRIKING TO ME, BY THE WAY, I APPRECIATED BEING REFERRED TO AS DYNAMIC, YOU HAVE 85 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE BETWEEN THE TWO.

>> 40 YEARS.

>> Cathy: DYNAMIC.

>> DECEMBER WAS SO OFF THE CHARTS, IN FACT, I THINK WE HAVE A GRAPHIC FOR YOUR AUDIENCE.

BUT DECEMBER WAS -- >> Eric: TELL US WHAT THIS IS.

>> YEAH.

THIS IS A GRAPH OF ALL 129 YEARS OF DECEMBER MEAN TEMPERATURE STATEWIDE.

SO IT'S NOT ONE POINT, IT'S AVERAGE FOR THE STATE.

AS WELL AS STATEWIDE PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER.

ALL THOSE DATA POINTS REPRESENT EVERY YEAR SINCE 1895.

WE CAN'T PLOT DECEMBER OF 2023 ON THAT GRAPH.

>> Eric: IT'S OFF THE CHART.

>> IT'S OFF.

>> Eric: OFF THE CHART.

>> IT'S LIKE YOU'RE LOOKING AT A DIFFERENT PLANET.

WE BROKE THE STATE RECORD FOR DECEMBER'S MEAN STATEWIDE TEMPERATURE BY 5 DEGREES.

THAT'S RIDICULOUS.

>> Eric: TOP THAT CHART, PAUL DOUGLAS.

>> YEAH.

I DON'T THINK I CAN.

I DON'T THINK I WANT O.

BUT PEOPLE ARE ASKING ME, AND I'M ASKING MARK, HOW MUCH OF THIS IS NATURAL?

HOW MUCH OF THIS IS EL NINO?

WHICH IS A NATURAL PHENOMENON, EVERY FOUR OR FIVE YEARS, HOW MUCH OF THIS IS BACKGROUND WARMING?

THE PLANET IS WARMING.

THE OCEANS ARE WARMING.

IT'S A FACT.

AND I DO HAVE A GRAPHIC.

I DON'T THINK I CAN TOP WHAT MARK JUST SHOWED.

BUT I SHOW THIS IN TERMS OF OFF THE SCALE.

LAST YEAR, 2023, THE WARMEST YEAR GLOBALLY ON RECORD, SOME CLIMATE SCIENTISTS ARE SAYING IT MAY HAVE BEEN THE WARMEST YEAR IN TENS OF THOUSANDS OF YEARS.

PERHAPS AS LONG AS 125,000 YEARS.

THE TEN WARMEST YEARS ON RECORD HAVE BEEN THE LAST TEN YEARS.

THAT TOP RED LINE IS 2023.

YOU SEE THE BLUE LINES DOWN BELOW, THAT WAS THE '40s AND '50s, BUT YOU CAN SEE STEADY WARMING.

AND IT'S NOT JUST THE ATMOSPHERE, IT'S THE OCEANS.

AND THAT'S WHAT STRIKES ME ABOUT THE SYSTEM THAT WE ARE TRACKING RIGHT NOW.

IT'S NOT JUST THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WITH EL NINO.

EVERY SINGLE OCEAN ON THE PLANET IS OFF THE SCALE.

92% OF THE GREENHOUSE GAS WARMING, THAT ADDITIONAL MAN-MADE WARMING FROM BURNINGS FOR I WILL FUELS -- OSSIL FUELS, 92% IS GOING INTO THE OCEANS.

ONCE IT'S IN THE OCEANS, IT DOESN'T STAY IN THE OCEANS.

IT BLEEDS T LEAKS OUT.

SO I THINK THAT IS COMPOUNDING AND AMPLIFYING TURBO CHARGING, IF YOU WILL, THE EL NINO THAT'S UNDERWAY.

AND I ASKED MARK, HOW MUCH OF THIS DO YOU THINK IS EL NINO, HOW MUCH OF IT IS BACKGROUND WARMING?

>> YEAH, I THINK FORENSICALLY DIAGNOSING WHAT HAPPENED IN DECEMBER, AND 'M SURE WE'LL HAVE THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY COME OUT WITH WHOLE PAPER ON THIS, YOU AND I KNOW THAT.

>> YEAH.

>> BUT OFF THE CUFF, I'M THINKING BECAUSE EIGHT OF THE LAST TEN DECEMBERS HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN NORMAL, IF YOU JUST LOOK AT THE DECEMBER TEMPERATURE PATTERN SINCE 1990, THE MEAN TEMPERATURE IN MINNESOTA IN DECEMBER HAS INCREASED BY ALMOST DEGREES.

IN DECEMBER.

SINCE 1990.

YOU MIGHT SEE THAT HISTORICALLY IF YOU GO BACK IN THE GEOLOGIC RECORD, BUT IN THE INSTRUMENTAL RECORD, TO LOOK AT 30 YEARS AND SEE A 7-DEGREE TEMPERATURE CHANGE.

SO I'M THINKING, PAUL, IT'S PROBABLY SOMETHING LIKE 70% CLIMATE CHANGE, AND MAYBE 30% EL NINO.

>> REALLY?

>> SOMEWHERE IN THAT CATEGORY.

IT IS COMBINATION OF BOTH.

BUT CLIMATE CHANGE IS DEFINITELY A SIGNAL IN THERE.

>> Cathy: SO WE'RE TALKING ABOUT TEMPERATURE.

SO, AS WE'RE SEEING THE TEMPERATURES GO OFF THE CHARTS, WE'RE ALSO LOOKING AT -- IT'S BEEN WET, THOUGH, BUT IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

>> RAIN.

>> Cathy: WHICH IS SO ODD, TOO.

>> RIGHT.

>> Cathy: WHAT DOES THAT DO, WE'RE STILL IN A DROUGHT SITUATION.

>> MUCH OF THE STATE, STILL, RIGHT.

I DON'T THINK THE IMMEDIATE METRO IS IN DROUGHT NOW.

WE'RE STILL TOO DRY.

>> RIGHT.

THERE'S STILL OVER 40% OF THE LANDSCAPE, CATHY, IN MODERATE DROUGHT, ACCORDING TO HE NOAA DROUGHT CENTER.

BUT I THINK THOSE RANGE YOU REFERRED TO, I HEARD FROM A LOT OF OBSERVERS, THEY WENT INTO THE SOIL BECAUSE WE WERE WARM ENOUGH THAT THE SOIL HADN'T FROZEN DEEPLY, SO IT WAS ABLE TO TAKE IN, BECAUSE IT DIDN'T INCREASE OUR STREAM FLOW OR OUR VOLUME THROUGH THE RIVER MUCH.

IT WENT INTO THE SOIL.

SO, I THINK IN THE END, IT PROBABLY DID HELP THE DROUGHT, BUT WE WON'T KNOW THAT UNTIL WE GET OUT OF WINTER AND TART MEASURING THINGS AND SEE WHAT THE SOIL MOISTURE QUANTITIES ARE LIKE.

>> Eric: DOES THE LACK OF SNOW HELP BOOST THE TEMPERATURE?

>> ABSOLUTELY.

THE SUN'S ENERGY CAN GO INTO HEATING UP THE AIR INSTEAD OF MELTING SNOW.

SO, DECEMBER, WITH NO SNOW ON THE GROUND, THE TEMPERATURES WERE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN IF WE HAD HAD ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND.

THIS IS NOT WHAT I HAD IN MIND WITH A DRY JANUARY, WE'RE GETTING OFF TO A DRY START.

SOME SIGNS WE MAY BE HEADING INTO A SNOWIER PATTERN AND OLD MAN WINTER IS ABOUT TO HAVE A HOLD MY BEER MOMENT BECAUSE HERE WE ARE, THIS IS THE NEW NORMAL, IT'S ALWAYS GOING TO BE IN THE 30s AND 40s AND 50s, NO.

IT'S GOING TO GET COLD.

>> Eric: WELL, MY MOM KEEPS TELLING ME THAT IN DULUTH, ALL OF HER FRIENDS ARE SAYING, WE'RE GOING TO PAY FOR THIS DOWN THE LINE.

IT'S BEEN TOO NICE.

WE'RE GOING TO GET HIT BEFORE WINTER'S OVER.

>> OUR WHOLE HISTORY IS ABOUT WHEN THE OTHER SHOE DROPS.

WE KNOW THAT.

OUR WHOLE MINNESOTA HISTORY.

>> Eric: YEAH.

>> IS BASED ON THAT.

ALTHOUGH I WAS TALKING TO PAUL ABOUT THIS.

THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE MODELS, AS WELL AS THE EUROPEAN MODELS THAT LOOK AT NORTH AMERICA ARE ALL SUGGESTING WE'RE NOT GOING TO SEE THE EL NINO SIGNAL GO AWAY THIS WINTER.

WE'RE GOING TO REVERT, MAYBE HAVE SOME COLD SNOW IN JANUARY, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE MODEL PROJECTIONS SAY WE'RE GOING TO GO WARM AGAIN IN FEBRUARY, WE'RE GOING TO GO EVEN WARMER IN MARCH, AND EVEN WARMER IN APRIL.

>> Cathy: WOW.

>> SO WE TALKED ABOUT THAT THIS MORNING.

>> Cathy: EARLY SPRING THEN.

>> SO I THINK MASTER GARDENERS, ALL THOSE WONDERFUL PEOPLE THAT HANG ON FOR THE GARDENING SEASON, THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE MAYBE AN EARLY START IN 2024.

>> Eric: WHEN DOES LA NIÑA SHOW UP?

>> BOY, WHO KNOWS.

LOOK, I FEEL AD FOR PEOPLE WHO LOVE SNOW.

AND YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE.

THEY'RE VERY VOCAL.

THEY'RE NOT SHY.

>> YES, YES, INDEED.

>> AND WE WANT ICE FOR THE U.S. POND HOCKEY CHAMPIONSHIPS LATER THIS MONTH.

I THINK THERE WILL BE ICE, BUT IT MAY BE SKETCHY.

BUT I THINK THE LATTER HALF OF JANUARY, THE LAST TWO WEEKS OF JANUARY, WE'RE GOING TO HAVE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND NIGHTTIME LOWS DIPPING JUST BELOW ZERO.

TWO-WEEK CONCENTRATED VERSION OF WINTER AND THEN HOPEFULLY, I MEAN, I'M KIND OF ROOTING FOR AN EARLY SPRING, AND THAT'S ONE THING THAT STILL CONFUSES ME, MARK, IS APRIL, WHAT'S GOING ON WITH APRIL AND SLUSH?

WHEN'S THE LAST TIME WE HAD A REAL SPRING WITH FLOWERS GROWING IN LATE MARCH, EARLY APRIL?

>> Eric: THAT'S WHAT WE CALL A CLIFFHANGER BECAUSE WE'RE OUT OF TIME.

>> OH, OKAY.

WE END ON A CLIFFHANGER.

>> Eric: THAT'S RIGHT.

COME BACK AND SEE US SOMETIME.