SOCIAL STUDIES STANDARDS AND A TRIO POLITICAL SCIENTISTS WILL TALK PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS AND A WHOLE LOT MORE.

>> ERIC: WE START TONIGHT WITH ECONOMIC NEWS.

MINNESOTA ADDED JUST 800 JOBS IN DECEMBER, THE SIXTH STRAIGHT MONTH OF GROWTH, BUT FAR BELOW THE THOUSANDS ADDED IN PREVIOUS MONTHS.

DID DECEMBER'S WARM AND DRY WEATHER PLAY A ROLE?

HOW DOES THE STATE COMPARE TO THE REST OF THE NATION?

LET'S ASK A COUPLE OF GUESTS WITH US, CHRIS FARRELL COVERS ECONOMICS FOR THE AMERICAN PUBLIC MEDIA AND WE WELCOME BACK KRISTINE WEST, PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS AT ST. KATHERINE'S UNIVERSITY.

2.9%, IS THAT LIKE FULL EMPLOYMENT OR BETTER THAN FULL EMPLOYMENT?

>> YEAH, I THINK IT'S BETTER THAN FULL EMPLOYMENT.

THAT'S A REALLY ROBUST UNEMPLOYMENT RATE.

SO THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HAS BEEN HOVERING AROUND 3 AND IT TIPPED UNDER TO 2.9 SEASONALLABLY ADJUSTED, SO, GREAT NEWS.

>> WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE ECONOMY OF THE STATE?

>> IT'S WONDERFUL NEWS.

IT'S GREAT NEWS.

I MEAN, YOU THINK ABOUT WHEN PEOPLE TALK ABOUT THE ECONOMY, I MEAN, TALK ABOUT PRODUCTIVITY OR GDP BUT WHAT REALLY MATTERS IS JOBS.

THAT'S WHAT THE ECONOMY IS ABOUT.

AND SO, YOU KNOW, IN THE NEW YEAR AND YOU'RE LOOKING AT NATIONALLY OR LOCALLY, THE JOB MARKET IS GOOD.

AND ONE DEFINITION OF A GOOD ECONOMY IS WHEN EMPLOYERS ARE LOOKING FOR WORKERS.

NOT WHEN WORKERS ARE LOOKING FOR EMPLOYERS.

AND WE'RE IN AN ECONOMY WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE SMALL BUSINESS SURVEYS, THEY'RE STILL HIRING, THEY'RE STILL LOOKING FOR WORKERS AND I THINK YOU'RE ALSO SEEING MANY MORE ORGANIZATIONS, COMPANIES WILLING TO TRAIN WORKERS BECAUSE THEY NEED THEM.

>> HELP ME OUT HERE, THOUGH.

THIS ALL SOUNDS GREAT.

THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS DOWN, YES, BUT SO IS PARTICIPATION.

>> YOU'RE RIGHT.

>> AND THAT'S DOWN TOO, SO HOW DOES THAT WORK?

>> WELL, MINNESOTA HAS HISTORICALLY HAD REALLY HIGH LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES, SO WE'RE ACTUALLY STILL PRETTY HIGH LIKE COMPARED TO NATIONAL TRENDS.

BUT WE HAVEN'T GOTTEN BACK TO WHERE WE WERE BEFORE THE PANDEMIC SO WE USED TO BE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES IN THE 70S IKE LOW 70% AND WE'RE AT LIKE 68.

SO, YOU KNOW, THERE IS SOME ROOM FOR POLICY TO TRY AND ENCOURAGE PEOPLE TO SORT OF PUT THEIR HAT BACK IN THE RING.

>> AND WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE WHO MIGHT STILL BE ON THE SIDELINES?

>> SO SOME OF THE PEOPLE WHO RETIRED DURING THE PANDEMIC AND HAVEN'T COME BACK, SOME PEOPLE HAVE COME BACK AND UNRETIRED, BUT OTHER PEOPLE.

AND WE HAVE AN AGING WORKFORCE.

THAT'S ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL TRENDS WHEN YOU'RE LOOKING AT THE WORKFORCE IS THE AGING OF THE WORKFORCE.

SO THAT'S ONE OF THE FACTORS THAT ARE THERE.

AND I THINK ONE OF THE THINGS FOR ORGANIZATIONS, ADVOCATES, COMPANIES TO BE THINKING ABOUT IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THIS OPPORTUNITY.

BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE STILL CONTINUING TO COME OFF THE SIDELINES.

>> YEP.

>> AND SO AND YET WE'RE STILL NOT AS FLEXIBLE AS YOU THINK WE'D BE.

PEOPLE CAN STILL LOOK AT SOMEBODY WHO TOOK SOME TIME OFF TO, YOU NOW, SPEND TIME WITH HIS OR HER YOUNG CHILDREN AND KIND OF GO, YOU KNOW, THEY'VE BEEN OUT OF THE WORKFORCE A COUPLE YEARS -- I MEAN, STOP THIS, STOP THIS.

THIS HAS GOT TO END.

AND WE'RE MOVING IN THAT DIRECTION I'D JUST LIKE O SEE US MOVE FASTER.

>> WHAT'S THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS, PROFESSOR?

THE MICHIGAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY UP 29 POINTS SINCE NOVEMBER.

BEST TWO-MONTH INCREASE IN THE HISTORY OF THE SURVEY.

WHAT'S GOING ON THERE?

>> CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IS A GREAT WAY TO TAKE THE PULSE ABOUT HOW PEOPLE ARE FEELING ABOUT THE ECONOMY.

WHAT WAS PUZZLEING WAS HOW CONFIDENCE WAS LAGGING, SO I THINK IT'S GREAT THAT THE CONFIDENCE NUMBERS ARE CATCHING UP AND THAT PEOPLE ARE REALLY FEELING IN THEIR LIVED EXPERIENCE.

BECAUSE IT'S ONE THING TO TALK ABOUT AVERAGES AND TO TALK ABOUT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES AND IF IT'S NOT WHAT YOU FEEL AND IT'S NOT WHAT YOU'RE EXPERIENCING THAT'S NOT GOING TO RESONATE.

THIS TELLS ME THAT THOSE NUMBERS ARE STARTING TO RESONATE WITH PEOPLE.

>> INTEREST RATES ARE TIMELY FALLING A LITTLE BIT.

IS THAT GOING TO CONTINUE >> I MEAN, I THINK IT WILL BECAUSE INFLATION IS COMING DOWN.

IF YOU'RE AN OPTIMIST ON INFLATION, THAT YOU BELIEVE THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS SUCCEEDED IN ITS CAMPAIGN AGAINST INFLATION AND NOW THEIR QUESTION IS WHEN DO THEY START EASING THE SUPPLY CHAIN, WHICH TOOK A LOT LONGER TO SORT OF GET WORKING WELL, THEY'RE NOW WORKING WELL.

SO I THINK AS INFLATION RATES COME DOWN, SO WILL INTEREST RATES.

INTEREST RATES WILL PROBABLY STAY HIGHER SO LONG AS THE ECONOMY KEEPS GROWING.

BUT THAT'S NOT A BAD THING.

THAT WOULD BE REFLECTING NOT SO MUCH INFLATION OR RISING PRICES, BUT IT WILL REFLECT HEALTHY ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INTEREST IN TRYING TO DECIDE WHERE ARE WE GOING TO PUT THAT CAPITAL.

SO OVERALL LIKE MORTGAGE RATES ARE COMING DOWN, I THINK IT'S A REASONABLE EXPECTATION MORTGAGE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO COME DOWN BECAUSE THE MORTGAGE RATES ARE VERY SENSITIVE TO FED POLICY.

>> Eric: BUSINESS CONCERNS.

SICK AND SAFE TIME, PAID LEAVE, LEGALIZED MARIJUANA.

THEY'RE WORRIED ABOUT THAT STUFF, THE GOVERNOR SAYS THESE THINGS WILL BRING A YOUNGER VIBRANT WORKFORCE TO THE STATE.

WHERE DO ECONOMISTS COME DOWN ON KIND OF THOSE OPPOSING VIEWS?

>> YOU KNOW, ECONOMISTS ARE FAMOUS FOR LIKE THERE'S TRADEOFFS, AND THERE'S LITTLE GIVE AND TAKE HERE.

OBVIOUSLY REGULATION ITS CREATES MORE BUSINESSES LIKE THEY'RE SAYING, THEY NEED TO CONSIDER THE REGULATION, THE COST AND THAT MAY MAKE DIFFERENT HIRING DECISIONS BECAUSE OF THAT.

BUT I THINK THE GOVERNOR HAS ABOUT A GOOD POINT HERE.

THE REGULATIONS THAT WERE BEING INTRODUCED THIS YEAR ARE ONES THAT MAKE THOSE WORKERS WHO ARE ON THE SIDELINE MAYBE MORE LIKELY TO COME BACK IN.

IF YOU'RE GOING TO AVE PAID FAMILY LEAVE OR SICK TIME, IF YOU'RE GOING TO AVE THE KINDS OF THINGS THAT ALLOW A PARENT WHO'S TRANSITIONING BACK FROM BEING AT HOME TO WORK, I THINK THAT'S OOD FOR THE STATE'S ECONOMY OVERALL AND I THINK THAT USINESSES WILL COME TO SEE THAT.

>> Eric: WITH INFLATION LESSENING, WILL PRICES COME DOWN OR WILL COMPANIES KEEP THEM WHERE THEY ARE AND THEN PUT THE REST IN THEIR POCKET?

>> SO A COUPLE THINGS WILL HAPPEN.

PRICES AREN'T GOING TO COME DOWN MUCH.

BUT UNLESS THEY'RE MORE COMMODITY RELATED, LUMBER HAS COME DOWN, PRICE OF EGGS IS HAS COME DOWN.

SOME OF THE THINGS PEOPLE WERE LOOKING AT WHEN INFLATION WAS GOING UP AND PRICES ERE GOING UP.

MORE COMMODITIES WILL COME DOWN.

BUT I THINK WHAT YOU'RE GOING TO SEE IS, OKAY, WE'RE ANOTHER GOING TO LOWER THE PRICE OF A CAR BUT MAYBE WE'RE GOING TO GIVE YOU A DISCOUNT ON THE INTEREST RATE, OR MAYBE WE'RE GOING TO EXTEND THE WARRANTEE.

COMPANIES WILL DO VARIOUS THINGS THAT WILL, THAT THE CONSUMER WILL SEE THEY'RE GETTING SOMETHING OF A DEAL, BUT ACTUALLY CUTTING THE PRICE, THAT'S REALLY HARD.

COMPANIES DON'T LIKE DOING THAT.

>> Eric: SO IT'S A WINDFALL FOR THE COMPANIES THEN?

IF THEIR COSTS ARE LESS BUT THEY KEEP THE PRICE THE SAME TO THE CONSUMER?

>> I MEAN, I AGREE.

PRICES ARE STICKY COMING DOWN, THAT'S NLIKELY TO HAPPEN.

THE WAY WE COULD GET THE DEALS LIKE CHRIS MENTIONED.

YOU KNOW, WE ARE SEEING THAT UNIONS AND OTHER LABOR IS STARTING TO NEGOTIATE FOR THEIR PIECE OF THAT PIE TOO, THOUGH, SO I DO THINK IT WON'T B