>> ERIC: THE FEDERAL SHUTDOWN HAS STRETCHED INTO ANOTHER MONTH, AND FOR THE SECOND WEEK, THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS HAS CANCELED RELEASING ITS JOBS REPORT.

LOCAL DATA OR PRIVATE FIRMS MAY OFFER SOME INSIGHT DURING THIS DATA BLACKOUT, BUT IS THERE CAUSE FOR CONCERN FOLLOWING LAYOFFS AT MAJOR CORPORATIONS LIKE TARGET IN OCTOBER?

PROFESSOR LOUIS JOHNSTON IS BACK TO SHARE HIS INSIGHTS.

HE TEACHES ECONOMICS AT THE COLLEGE OF ST.

BEN'S AND ST.

JOHN'S UNIVERSITY.

WELCOME.

>> THANK YOU.

>> Eric: MORE MINNESOTANS ARE FILING FOR BANKRUPTCY THAN THE U.S.

AVERAGE.

AND IS THAT A KIND OF A RED FLAG FOR A RECESSION OR NO?

>> I DON'T KNOW ABOUT A RED FLAG.

IT'S CERTAINLY YELLOW.

IT'S CERTAINLY A YELLOW ALERT, BECAUSE IT'S SHOWING THAT PEOPLE'S INCOMES ARE NOT GROWING AS FAST AS WHAT THEY NEED TO SPEND ON GOODS AND SERVICES, SO THEY'RE HAVING TO BORROW THE DIFFERENCE AND PART OF THAT OF THAT IS TRIGGERING BANKRUPTCY.- >> TRIGGERING BANKRUPTCY.- >> CRIGGERING BANKRUPTCY.- >> CatGGERING BANKRUPTCY.- >> CathyERING BANKRUPTCY.- >> Cathy: ING BANKRUPTCY.- >> Cathy: ANG BANKRUPTCY.- >> Cathy: ANOTBANKRUPTCY.- >> Cathy: ANOTHENKRUPTCY.- >> Cathy: ANOTHER RUPTCY.- >> Cathy: ANOTHER --PTCY.- >> Cathy: ANOTHER -- ICY.- >> Cathy: ANOTHER -- IS .- >> Cathy: ANOTHER -- IS IT A YELLOW RIGHT OR A RED LIGHT, THE FACT THAT, FIRST, THERE'S NO JOB NUMBERS, BUT THERE ARE THESE REPORTS OF MASSIVE LAYOFFS ACROSS THE CORPORATE WORLD.

>> THAT'S MAYBE ORANGE, YELLOW TO RED, I DON'T KNOW, SOMEWHERE IN THERE.

BUT THE JOBS REPORT IS TERRIBLE TO NOT HAVE THAT.

77 YEARS WE'VE HAD A MONTHLY JOBS REPORT AND OW WE'VE MISSED TWO MONTHS.

WE'RE USED TO BEING ABLE TO NAVIGATE THE ECONOMY WITH THAT MONTHLY JOBS REPORT AS A BASIS FOR LOTS OF OTHER THINGS.

WE DON'T HAVE IT.

WE'RE NOT GOING TO GET THE MONTHLY INFLATION NUMBER EITHER.

WE GOT IT LAST MONTH BECAUSE THEY HAD TO DO IT IN ORDER TO DO SOCIAL SECURITY.

FOR THE NEXT YEAR.

WE'RE NOT GOING TO GET IT THIS MONTH.

WE'RE NOT GETTING G.D.P.

WE BASICALLY GOT THIS FOGGED UP WINDOW WE'RE TRYING TO DRIVE THE CAR THROUGH.

>> Eric: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN HAS THE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE STUDY.

IT'S, LIKE, AT AN ALL-TIME LOW, 30% WORSE THAN LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME.

WHAT DOES THAT TELL US?

>> I THINK IT TELLS US THAT HOUSEHOLDS ARE REALLY UNCERTAIN.

THEY'RE LIKE, WHAT IS GOING?

WE DON'T KNOW WHAT'S HAPPENING?

THE CORPORATE LAYOFFS, ARE WE GOING TO LOSE OUR JOBS?

ARE WE GOING TO SEE WAGE CUTS?

WHAT'S HAPPENING TO THE REST OF THE ECONOMY?

WE JUST DON'T KNOW.

>> Cathy: GOING BACK TO THE JOB CUTS, ARE WE SHEDDING JOBS FASTER THAN WE REALLY THINK WE ARE?

>> WELL, WE DON'T KNOW.

THAT'S PART OF THE PROBLEM.

BUT MY HUNCH IS, I'M NOT SURE WE ARE.

BUT THIS WHOLE THING OF A.I.

THAT WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT, ABOUT ART ABOUT AR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENC, IT'S HOLLOWING OUT THIS WHOLE LAYER OF JOBS THAT'S KIND OF THE FIRST RUNG OF THE LADDER FOR COLLEGE GRADUATES.

SO PEOPLE WHO COME INTO, SAY, BEST BUY OR TARGET AS ANALYSTS, THEY DON'T NEED THAT JOB ANYMORE.

TARGET CAN TURN HAT INTO AN AUTOMATED POSITION.

AND THEN EITHER HAVE PEOPLE ABOVE THAT DOING THE WORK.

OR HIRE PEOPLE WITH MORE EDUCATION TO TAKE ON EVEN MORE OF THE WORK.

>> Eric: HOW MUCH REALLY CAN GOVERNMENT AFFECT THE COMMITTEE?

>> WELL, ONLY AT THE MARGINS.

SO IT CAN'T AFFECT, YOU KNOW, IN A TRUE SENSE, YOU REALLY CAN'T AFFECT THE LONG-TERM TREND OF IT.

IT AN AFFECT THE UPS AND DOWNS SOME.

BUT THE LONG-TERM TREND IS DETERMINED BY THINGS LIKE TECHNOLOGY, BY HOW MUCH PEOPLE ARE SPENDING ON CAPITAL GOODS AND THINGS LIKE THAT, BY THE EDUCATION OF THE POPULATION.

THAT'S WHAT'S REALLY DRIVING IT.

>> Cathy: BUT CERTAIN POLICIES CAN DAMAGE AN ECONOMY.

>> ABSOLUTELY.

SO, FOR EXAMPLE, PUTTING 15% TO 50% TARIFFS ON TRADE WITH PARTNERS THAT ARE PROVIDING GOODS AND SERVICES MUCH MORE CHIEFLY THAN WE CAN DO IT -- >> Eric: SO IN A CONSUMER-BASED ECONOMY, PEOPLE ARE HOPING FOR A ROBUST HOLIDAY SEASON I SUPPOSE.

>> I CAN'T SEE THAT IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN.

RIGHT NOW WITH THE INCOME TRENDS AND THE JOB LOSSES, AND THE TARIFFS RAISING THE PRICES, I CAN'T SEE HOW THE HOLIDAY IS GOING TO BE VERY HAPPY, AT LEAST IF YOU'RE A RETAILER.

HERE, HAVE YOUR CHRISTMAS POLL.

>>