GEOFF BENNETT: Whether you talk to voters or look at polls, it's clear the economy and concerns about costs remain the top issue for many voters.

In our most recent PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, nearly 60 percent of voters said the economy was a crucial factor for their vote.

Both candidates want to extend tax cuts for many Americans, but there are some key differences.

Former President Donald Trump wants to impose broad tariffs and deport undocumented workers.

Vice President Kamala Harris has focused on creating tax credits and tackling price gouging.

For more on how these plans could affect inflation, we're joined now by Nick Timiraos, the chief economics correspondent of The Wall Street Journal.

It's the focus of a piece he wrote this past week.

It's great to have you here.

NICK TIMIRAOS, The Wall Street Journal: Thanks for having me.

GEOFF BENNETT: And I will say the lead of your latest piece really caught my attention: "A punishing 2.5-year fight to bring inflation down appears to be succeeding.

The election could change that."

Many economists believe that Donald Trump's economic plan is the riskier bet.

Why is that?

NICK TIMIRAOS: Well, it's because, if you look at why inflation has come down over the last two years, a lot of it has been from the healing of the supply side of the economy.

What is that?

Supply chains have improved.

The labor force has expanded, partly due to increased immigration, and that's helped to take some of the edge off of the supply-and-demand imbalances that we had when inflation was very high two years ago.

If you're doing things like imposing tariffs or, increasing deportations, you could hit the economy with new shocks that create the risk that inflation might pick up again.

GEOFF BENNETT: And, of course, Donald Trump says his plan isn't inflationary.

What's his argument?

NICK TIMIRAOS: Well, there are different arguments.

One of the arguments you hear is that tariffs might increase prices in the short run, but you're achieving a broader goal of making trade fairer over the long run, and, if you cut taxes, you could spur growth.

The other argument is just that it's gone on for too long that trade has been this unfair, and so these are costs that we have -- that we have to take.

GEOFF BENNETT: You reported that this matter of broad tariffs is coming up on corporate earnings calls.

Tell me more about that.

NICK TIMIRAOS: Well tariffs can get passed along through to consumers like a tax, and CEOs have basically said, if we are hit with tariffs, we will pass those costs along to consumers.

The concern would be, after several years of high inflation, does that increase sort of the inflationary psychology in the economy, where people now begin to worry, well, should I ask for more money because I see prices are going up again?

GEOFF BENNETT: And Donald Trump has promised mass deportation of undocumented immigrants if reelected.

He says that deporting undocumented workers will help Americans find jobs.

How would that affect the economy?

NICK TIMIRAOS: Well, it's -- it could be quite disruptive.

It depends, of course, on how this is enforced and how sweeping it is.

But there are some industries that have seen an increase in employment in part because of the increase in unauthorized workers, construction, agriculture, mining.

And so, again, you wonder how much of that is going to create new shocks to the economy, even though there is an imperative to have tougher border controls.

That's something that both parties seem to agree upon.

GEOFF BENNETT: Let's talk about Kamala Harris' plan, because she has promised to tackle the cost of living crisis by boosting home construction, cracking down on alleged price gouging, expanding a tax credit for families with young children.

She says she's going to pay for all of this by increasing taxes on the richest Americans and some other revenue increases.

But what might it mean for inflation and for the economy, big picture?

NICK TIMIRAOS: Well if you're able to do this in a way that's deficit-neutral, that means you do have those tax increases to offset the spending, then, as the textbooks would say, that shouldn't increase inflation, it shouldn't overheat the economy.

One question is whether you actually are able to get the political support to do the sour, which is the tax increases, along with the sweet, which is the subsidies.

And the other concern I think would be that tackling cost of living crises by handing out more money may not actually cause the problem - - may not actually fix the problem.

It may cause more problems.

GEOFF BENNETT: Well, let's talk more about that, because President Biden oversaw trillions of dollars in social spending.

And Kamala Harris is promising to spend potentially trillions more.

How can Democrats do that responsibly?

NICK TIMIRAOS: Well, I think they would point to the tax increases, if you can actually get those done.

I think, if you look at some of the spending, I mean, the ARP, the relief plan in 2021, was clearly pandemic-directed.

The Inflation Reduction Act and some of these subsidies for green energy investments, the Biden administration sort of lowballed the cost of these things, and that's because they became more popular.

So, if businesses use these subsidies and they claim these credits more, you will see the cost of the program go up.

And that's in fact what budget forecasters and scorekeepers have said, is that the Inflation Reduction Act is going to be more expensive, because these benefits have been more popular among the companies that are claiming them.

GEOFF BENNETT: Yes.

Well, tomorrow we're expecting a GDP report, Thursday, an inflation report, on Friday, a hurricane-impacted jobs report.

What will you be watching for as all of this data comes in and what might it mean for the election?

NICK TIMIRAOS: Well, I think the big question in the economy right now is, you have seen consumption, which is consumer spending, very solid.

The U.S. economy has been very resilient this year.

The labor market has been slowing down.

And so those two things, it doesn't feel like they can go on for long.

Do -- does stronger consumer spending boost employment or does slower employment growth bring consumer spending down?

I think that will determine how the economy shakes out over the next six months and what kind of economy the next president is going to inherit.

GEOFF BENNETT: Nick Timiraos, great to speak with you.

NICK TIMIRAOS: Thanks.

GEOFF BENNETT: Thanks for coming in.

Appreciate it.

NICK TIMIRAOS: Thanks for having me.