
Election Analysis: Why the GOP Is Losing Winnable Races
Clip: 11/8/2023 | 17m 57sVideo has Closed Captions
Astead Herndon discusses the important results in yesterday's U.S. elections.
In the U.S., Democrats defied the pollsters, holding their ground in last night’s elections. In Virginia, the party gained full control over the state legislature, while Democrat Gabe Amo made history as Rhode Island’s first Black congressman. Astead Herndon, New York Times national politics reporter, joins the show to discuss what these results could mean for next year’s presidential race.
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Election Analysis: Why the GOP Is Losing Winnable Races
Clip: 11/8/2023 | 17m 57sVideo has Closed Captions
In the U.S., Democrats defied the pollsters, holding their ground in last night’s elections. In Virginia, the party gained full control over the state legislature, while Democrat Gabe Amo made history as Rhode Island’s first Black congressman. Astead Herndon, New York Times national politics reporter, joins the show to discuss what these results could mean for next year’s presidential race.
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Learn Moreabout PBS online sponsorship>>> IN THE UNITED STATES, DEMOCRATS DEFIED POLLSTERS LAST NIGHT, HOLDING THEIR GROUND IN THOSE STATEWIDE ELECTIONS.
IN VIRGINIA, THE PARTY GAINED FULL CONTROL OVER THE STATE LEGISLATURE, WHILE RHODE ISLAND ELECTED A BLACK CONGRESSMAN.
ASTEAD HERNDON FROM "THE NEW YORK TIMES" HAS MORE WITH HARI.
>> CHRISTIANE, THANK YOU.
ASTEAD, THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US.
WHAT WERE YOU WATCHING ALL OVER THE COUNTRY LAST NIGHT?
>> YEAH, I MEAN, THE PRINCIPLE RACES, YOU KNOW, THE KENTUCKY GOVERNOR'S RACE, WE HAD THE KIND OF STATE LEGISLATURE AND STATE SENATE THAT WERE UP IN VIRGINIA, THOSE WERE CALLED KIND OF AT THE END OF THE NIGHT FOR DEMOCRATS.
WE WERE WATCHING MISSISSIPPI, BUT THAT ENDED UP NOT GOING TO A RUNOFF AND HOLDING WITH THE REPUBLICANS.
I THINK ON THE TOP LINE, YOU REALLY JUST HAVE BEEN WATCHING ALL OF THE KIND OF RACES THAT SHOW THE CONTINUED SAIL AGAINST OF ABORTION RIGHTS, BOTH FROM KENTUCKY TO OHIO TO, YOU KNOW, AND I THINK THAT CONTINUES TO TREND FOR DEMOCRATS.
WE'VE SEEN BASICALLY SINCE THE DOBBS DECISION HAS FALLEN, AND THAT'S WHAT I WAS LOOKING INTO THE NIGHT GOING INTO.
AND YOU LOOK AT VIRGINIA, KENTUCKY, AND OHIO, THERE'S A CLEAR MESSAGE THAT THAT IS STILL TOP OF MIND FOR VOTERS ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
>> FIRST, LET'S TALK ABOUT OHIO.
CHANGE TO THE STATE CONSTITUTION.
>> YEAH.
IT WAS A CHANGE TO THE STATE CONSTITUTION FOR ABORTION RIGHTS.
AND LET'S REMEMBER, THIS IS THE KIND OF LATEST ITERATION OF A FIGHT THAT'S BEEN PLAYING OUT FOR AWHILE.
REPUBLICANS TRIED TO RAISE THE STANDARD ON THE STATE REFERENDUM, BECAUSE THEY WERE WORRIED ABOUT HOW MANY PEOPLE WOULD DRIVE TO THE POLLS, THEY TRIED TO CHANGE THE DATE OF THE ELECTION, AND YOU STILL SAW DEMOCRATS HAVE A RESOUNDING, KIND OF DECISIVE VICTORY THERE.
THAT'S OVER THE CONCERNS OF SOME REPUBLICAN STATE OFFICIALS WHO HAVE REALLY CAMPAIGNED HARD AGAINST IT.
I THINK THE MARGIN THERE REALLY, TO ME, SAYS THAT WE NEED TO START REFRAMING HOW WE THINK ABOUT THIS.
THIS ISN'T JUST AN ISSUE FOR WOMEN IN SUBURBS.
YOU'VE SEEN THIS KIND OF CREATE A NEW TYPE OF COALITION THAT WHEN ABORTION RIGHTS ON THE BALLOT, THIS IS A, YOU KNOW, A WIDE RANGE OF PEOPLE COMING TOGETHER, EVEN IN A RED STATE.
AND SO, I THINK OHIO'S A CLEAR KIND OF MESSAGE AND THE REASON WHY, YOU KNOW, DEMOCRATS ARE TRYING TO REALLY CONSOLIDATE AROUND A MESSAGE OF PROTECTING FREEDOMS AND ABORTION RIGHTS FOR 2024, AND WHY REPUBLICANS REALLY HAVEN'T FOUND AN ANSWER TO IT.
BECAUSE AS THEY CONTINUE TO KIND OF STICK THEIR HEAD IN THE SAND AND TRY TO FEAR MONGER AROUND DEMOCRATIC TACTICS, THAT'S NOT WORKING FOR VOTERS.
THEY SEE THEM AS EXTREMISTS WHO ARE TAKING THEIR RIGHTS AWAY.
>> NOW, WHAT HAPPENED IN VIRGINIA?
IT WASN'T ON THE BALLOT, PER SE, BUT IT STILL PLAYED A FACTOR, YOU THINK, IN FLIPPING THE LEGISLATURE?
>> I THINK IT DID, BECAUSE I THINK WE SHOULD THINK ABOUT GOVER GLENN YOUNGKIN'S ROLE IN THESE RACES.
HE WON IN 2021 KIND OF ON THE MESSAGE OF A PRINCIPLE CONSERVATIVE AND HE TRIED TO USE THESE ELECTIONS AS A KIND OF LITMUS TEST OF HIS CONSERVATIVE AGENDA, BECAUSE THE FULLNESS OF THE STATE LEGISLATURE WAS UP, BOTH THE STATE HOUSE AND SENATE.
DEMOCRATS CONTROLLED ONE HOUSE, BUT WERE LOOKING TO SEEK BOTH, AND YOUNGKIN SAID, IF YOU GIVE ME TWO HOUSES OF A REPUBLICAN LEGISLATURE, I WILL GIVE YOU A CONSERVATIVE AGENDA THAT INCLUDES KIND OF FINDING A MODERATE OR COMPROMISE POSITION ON ABORTION THAT WILL LIMIT IT TO SOMETHING LIKE 15 WEEKS.
THAT WAS WHAT HE WAS KIND OF GOING AROUND THE STATE SAYING, AND SPECIFICALLY PITCH IT TO NATIONAL MEDIA AS MAYBE AN ENTRY POINT FOR HIM TO GET INTO THE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL RACE.
BUT THAT DIDN'T COME TO FRUITION.
YOU SAW DEMOCRATS REALLY DO WELL, AND THEY TOOK CONTROL OF BOTH HOUSES OF THE STATE LEGISLATURE, FUNCTIONALLY, YOU KNOW, KIND OF GRINDING YOUNGKIN'S PROPOSED AGENDA TO A HALT.
AND I THINK THAT'S SEEN AS A REAL BLOW TO HIS KIND OF -- PARENTS' RIGHTS, ABORTION PROTECTIONS, HE WAS TRYING TO PUT INTO PLACE.
AND ANOTHER KIND OF RESULT THAT, YOU KNOW, STUCK OUT IN VIRGINIA, THAT LOUDOUN COUNTY SCHOOL BOARD ALSO WENT TO LIBERALS.
THAT WAS A PLACE WHERE THERE HAD BEEN SO MANY VOTES ABOUT CULTURE WARS, THE SO-CALLED WOKE MESSAGES THAT WERE COMING FROM EDUCATION, AND THIS IS NOT REALLY MOTIVATED REPUBLICANED TO THE DEGREE THAT THEY HAD HOPED ONCE AGAIN.
AND SO, I THINK, YOU KNOW, FOR ALL THE NATIONAL NARRATIVE ABOUT JOE BIDEN'S PROBLEMS, WE ACTUALLY SAW A DEMOCRATIC PARTY, PARTICULARLY IN VIRGINIA, THAT WAS SHOWING REAL SIGNS OF HEALTH.
>> SO, WHILE WE HAVE ONE GOVERNOR IN VIRGINIA WHOSE PRESIDENTIAL PROSPECTS MIGHT HAVE DIMMED A LITTLE AFTER LAST NIGHT, ANDY BESHEAR IN KENTUCKY SEEMED TO KIND OF IMPROVE HIS STATURE.
>> I MEAN, HE IMPROVED HIS STATURE, NOT ONLY NATIONALLY, BUT WHEN WE THINK BACK TO WHEN HE RAN FOUR YEARS AGO, HE SAW EVEN BIGGER MARGINS THIS TIME AROUND THAT REALLY SPEAKS TO SOMEONE WHO USED THE POWER OF INCUMBENCY TO HIS ADVANTAGE AND HAS A REAL NAME BRAND IN THE STATE.
NOW, REMEMBER THAT BESHEAR IS A UNIQUE KIND OF KENTUCKY FIGURE.
HAS A LONG-STANDING FAMILY NAME AND HAS A HISTORY OF BEING A KIND OF APPROACHABLE DEMOCRAT IN A RED STATE, BUT THAT SHOULD NOT OVERSHADOW WHAT HE DID IN THIS RACE.
HE EMBRACED THE IDEA OF PROTECTING ABORTION RIGHTS.
HE CAST HIS OPPONENT DANIEL CAMERON AS KIND OF AN EXTREMIST ON THIS ISSUE.
AND YOU ALSO SAW HIM REALLY, YOU KNOW, AS A STATE THAT HAS EXPERIENCED A RECENT MASS SHOOTING, YOU KNOW, HE WAS THE FACE OF THE KIND OF CONSOLATION AND, YOU KNOW, FOR CITIZENS, AND THAT SEEMS TO HAVE REALLY DONE HIM WELL.
WE SAW A LOT OF COUNTIES THAT VOTED FOR DONALD TRUMP AS RECENTLY AS 2020 VOTE FOR ANDY BESHEAR LAST NIGHT.
AND SO, THAT REALLY SAYS THAT THERE WAS SOME CROSSOVER APPEAL FOR THIS INDIVIDUAL CANDIDATE.
I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE A MODEL, IF WE LOOK ABOUT HOW DEMOCRATS CAN RUN BROADLY COME 2024.
IF YOU TRY TO MAKE IT NOT ABOUT THE KIND OF NATIONAL RACE, BUT LOCALIZED SPECIFICALLY THE ISSUES OF ABORTION AND PROTECTING DEMOCRACY, THAT'S GOING TO BE THE PLAYBOOK.
I WAS TALKING TO A STATE PARTY SHARE A COUPLE WEEKS AGO, AND HE TOLD ME, THEY HAVE TO COMMUNICATE THE STAKES OF THOSE ISSUES TO THEIR VOTERS, BECAUSE WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SINCE 2020 IS THAT DEMOCRATS WILL COME OUT WHEN THAT IS -- WHEN THAT IS COMMUNICATED.
THAT'S TRUE IN THE MIDTERMS, THAT'S TRUE IN THE OFFYEAR ELECTIONS AND THEY'RE HOPING THAT'S GOING TO BE TRUE NEXT YEAR.
>> TATE REEVES HELD ONTO HIS SEAT IN MISSISSIPPI.
HE WAS CHALLENGED BY A COUSIN OF ELVIS PRESLEY?
>> YEAH, YEAH.
THERE WAS AN INTERESTING RACE IN MISSISSIPPI, PARTIALLY BECAUSE TATE REEVES HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING A SPATE OF SCANDAL, WHICH CAUSED HIM TO REALLY THINK THAT THE DEMOCRATIC CHALLENGER, BRANDON PRESLEY, COULD DO SOME REAL -- COULD MAKE SOME REAL INROADS THERE, BUT MISSISSIPPI IS A FAMOUSLY TOUGH STATE FOR DEMOCRATS TO WIN.
THE HIGHEST PROPORTION OF NONWHITE VOTERS IN THE COUNTRY.
IT'S A VERY BLACK STATE.
SO, YOU CAN ACTUALLY GET TO KIND OF 45%, 46%, IF A DEMOCRAT MOBILIZED ALL THOSE BLACK VOTERS LIKE WEE KIND OF SAW LAST NIGHT.
THE DIFFICULTY OF MISSISSIPPI IS GETTING PAST THAT THRESHOLD TO MORE THAN 50%.
IT'S A STATE THAT JUST IMPLEMENTED A RUNOFF LAW, SO, ACTUALLY, LAST NIGHT, WE WERE LOOKING TO SEE IF REEVES WOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD PAST 50% TO AVOID THE RUNOFF, AND HE DID DO SO.
>> WHAT'S THE MESSAGE THAT REPUBLICANS ARE FACING RIGHT NOW, IF THEY ARE TAKING THESE LOSSES THAT ARE MOVED BY VOTERS WHO CARE A LOT ABOUT ABORTION, OR WHO CARE LESS ABOUT, YOU KNOW, WHAT IS AND IS NOT WOKE AND WHAT IS BEING TAUGHT IN SCHOOLS?
>> I THINK, FOR REPUBLICANS, THERE HAS TO BE A REAL SOUL SEARCH ABOUT THEIR MESSAGE BY ABORTION RIGHTS.
THEY HAVE BEEN LED BY A WING OF THE PARTY THAT IS CLEARLY OUT OF TOUCH WITH THE MAJORITY OF AMERICANS.
SO, IF THE LESSON FOR CONSERVATIVES IS THAT THE DOBBS DECISION WAS GOING TO BRING THIS BACK TO THE STATES, WAS GOING TO BE A KIND OF DEMOCRATIC REPOSITIONING OF THIS ISSUE, THEY NEED TO TAKE THE LESSONS OF DEMOCRACY AND MAKE CLEAR THAT THE MAJORITY OF AMERICANS, IF THEY ARE PUT IN FRONT OF THEM, ARE GOING TO ACT TO PROTECT ABORTION RIGHTS.
REPUBLICANS HAVE TO ASK THEMSELVES THAT.
THE OTHER KIND OF QUESTION HERE IS, JUST LIKE, THE GENERAL TRUMP TRY ANGULATION.
THEY HAVE NOT SEEN A KIND OF -- HIS KIND OF ENERGY TRANSLATE TO OTHER CANDIDATES.
AND SO, IF THERE IS AN ENTHUSIASM PROBLEM, IF THERE'S A SPLIT AMONG THE REPUBLICAN BASE, THEN THAT MEANS THAT, YOU KNOW, THEY'RE LESS ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ANY DEMOCRATIC SHORTCOMINGS.
AND SO, YOU KNOW, WHEN I WAS AT THE REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION EARLIER THIS YEAR, THE FIRST AND FOREMOST THING THEY SAID THEY NEED HEADING INTO 2024 IS UNITY AROUND THE PARTY.
NOW IN THE PRIMARY, THERE HAS BEEN BASICALLY A DEFERENCE TO DONALD TRUMP, BUT I DON'T THINK THAT FROM TOP TO BOTTOM YOU HAVE A UNITED PARTY AROUND THAT FIGURE.
AND BECAUSE YOU STILL HAVE SO MANY PEOPLE WHO ARE SAYING THAT HE HAS TOO MUCH BAGGAGE THAN OTHERS.
SO, IF YOU ARE REPUBLICANS THERE'S NOT ONLY A MESSAGE PROBLEM WHEN IT COMES TO ABORTION, THERE IS A UNITY PROBLEM, WHEN IT COMES TO WHETHER THE BASE OF THIS PARTY WANTS AND WHAT ITS DELIVERING IN TERMS OF CANDIDATES, BECAUSE IT IS NOT DELIVERING WINS.
THESE ARE WINNABLE RACES FOR REPUBLICANS LAST NIGHT, AND IN 2022, AND THEY ARE LOSING THEM.
AND THAT'S A CLEAR MESSAGE.
>> LAST YEAR, WHEN WE SPOKE, YOU DESCRIBED THE, QUOTE, STENCH THAT DONALD TRUMP HAS LEFT ON THE REPUBLICAN PARTY AND THE REPUBLICAN BRAND, BUT HERE WE ARE NOW, FOUR INDICTMENTS, 90-PLUS CRIMINAL CHARGES LATER, AND HE IS STILL OUTPERFORMING ALL THE OTHER REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES AND HE DOESN'T EVEN >> YEAH, YEAH, IT'S STUNNING, REALLY.
AND I THINK THAT THIS IS A KIND OF DIFFERENCE IN ASSUMPTIONS FROM A LOT OF PEOPLE.
WHEN I THINK ABOUT POST-MIDTERMS, THERE WAS A LOT OF ASSUMED POLITICAL FALLOUT THAT FOLKS THOUGHT WOULD HAPPEN FROM THE INDICTMENTS.
OF COURSE, VOTERS COULD HAVE TO RECOGNIZE THE LEGAL SYSTEM AND SAY THAT THAT MAKES HIM, YOU KNOW, DISQUALIFIES HIM FOR A PRESIDENT SI, AND THAT REALLY HASN'T HAPPENED.
ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE, YOU'VE SEEN PEOPLE REALLY CONSOLIDATE AROUND HIM, UNDER THE VISION OF HIM BEING PERSECUTED.
THE LATEST CNN POVLING HAS HIM AT 61% NATIONALLY AMONG -- IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY.
THAT MEANS THAT THIS WHOLE YEAR, YOU KNOW, THESE OTHER CANDIDATES, HAVEN'T REALLY MADE A DENT IN HIS SUPPORT, AND HE IS CONSOLIDATING AND GROWING THAT OVER THE SUMMER.
I THINK THAT'S ONE PIECE OF IT.
BUT I DO THINK THERE IS AN IMPACT TO THE INDICTMENTS, WHEN WE THINK BROADLY AND LOOK AHEAD TO A GENERAL ELECTION.
THIS IS A COUNTRY THAT DOES NOT WANT A REMATCH OF 2020.
THAT THINKS THAT JOE BIDEN IS SIMPLY TOO OLD AND THINKS THAT DONALD TRUMP HAS SIMPLY TOO MUCH BAGGAGE.
AND SO, THAT IS THE BIG IMPACT OF THEM -- OF US BEING BROUGHT BACK TO THIS POINT.
IT COMPLICATES THE QUESTION OF JUST WHO'S GOING TO WIN, BECAUSE I THINK WE'RE GOING TO SEE AN ELECTORATE THAT IS NEAR OPEN REVOLT.
SO, WILL THAT MEAN THERE'S MORE INTEREST IN A THIRD PARTY CANDIDATE?
WILL THAT MEAN PEOPLE VOTE DOWN BALL LATE?
WILL THAT MEAN YOUNG PEOPLE STAY OUT?
I DON'T KNOW KIND OF WHERE THAT KIND OF -- WHERE THAT IMPACT FALLS, BUT I DO THINK IT COMPLETELY UPENDS THE TYPE OF CALCULATIONS WE'RE SEEING.
IN A TYPICAL YEAR, I THINK WE COULD TAKE THESE OFF-YEAR ELECTIONS AS A SIGN FOR THE NEXT YEAR, BUT WITH THOSE TWO CANDIDATES AT THE TOP OF THE BALLOT, I THINK IT SCRAMBLES EVERYTHING.
>> IS THERE A SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH CONVERSATION IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY RIGHT NOW TO SAY, AND TO UNDERSTAND THAT IF DONALD TRUMP IS NOT THE CANDIDATE, THAT PERHAPS LOTS OF OTHER REPUBLICANS STAND A BETTER CHANCE AT BEATING JOE BIDEN?
REGARDLESS OF WHAT HE'S BEEN ABLE TO DO WITH THE ECONOMY, WHAT HE'S ABLE TO MANAGE IN FOREIGN POLICY AND SO ON?
>> I THINK THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION.
I -- YOU KNOW, I -- LAST WEEK, YOU KNOW, FOR THIS WEEK'S EPISODE OF "THE RUNUP, OTHER OUR PODCAST, WE TALKED TO THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN IN DELAWARE TO ASK THEM THIS QUESTION, AND WHAT THEY SAY IS, THEY KNOW THAT THEY HAVE REAL WORK TO DO, THAT THEY'RE INVESTING MONEY EARLY TO WIN OVER BLACK AND BROWN COMMUNITIES, THAT THEY'RE TREATING THEM AS PERSUADABLE VOTERS, NOT BASE VOTERS.
THEY RECOGNIZE THEY HAVE TO CONVINCE THEM TO COME OUT, RATHER THAN JUST ASSUME THEY WILL COME OUT.
BUT I GUESS THAT'S STILL COMING UP AGAINST THE FUNDAMENTAL FLAW HERE, WHICH IS THAT, YOU KNOW, A CANDIDATE THAT WAS SEEN AS AN EMERGENCY OPTION IS ASKING FOR A RENEWAL OF HIS CONTRACT, AND I THINK THAT FOR A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE, IT'S NOT REALLY ABOUT, YOU KNOW, WHETHER JOE BIDEN WAS A GOOD PRESIDENT OR NOT.
IT'S ABOUT WHERE THEY WANT HIM TO BE THE PRESIDENT GOING FORWARD.
SO, I THINK DEMOCRATS MIGHT FIND THEMSELVES COMING BACK AROUND TO TRYING TO MAKE THAT EMERGENCY MORAL ARGUMENT THAT YOU HAVE TO COME OUT, BECAUSE THE PROSPECT OF DONALD TRUMP WINNING IS SO SCARY.
AND I THINK THAT WILL MOTIVATE SOME PEOPLE, BUT I JUST WONDER IF THAT'S HARDER TO DO A SECOND TIME AROUND, PARTICULARLY WHEN THE ELECTORATE'S VIEWS OF DONALD TRUMP HAVE BECOME MORE NIGH LISTIC, AND THEY HAVE SEEN HIM AS KIND OF LESS AS AN EMERGENCY THREAT.
MAYBE THAT CHANGES COME NEXT YEAR, AFTER THESE CRIMINAL TRIALS AND THINGS LIKE THAT, BUT AS OF NOW, THE ACT OF CALLING DONALD TRUMP DISTASTEFUL HAS NOT WORKED.
THE ELECTORATE DOES NOT SEE HIM AS UNIQUELY MORE EXTREME THAN JOE BIDEN.
AND THAT'S A PROBLEM FOR JOE BIDEN.
>> THERE'S ANOTHER PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE THAT'S HAPPENING TONIGHT, AND I'M WONDERING HOW MUCH YOU THINK NOW FOREIGN POLICY PLAYS INTO HOW THESE CANDIDATES ARE AUDITIONING?
AND THE IN VERSE, WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO JOE BIDEN'S SUPPORT BECAUSE OF THE OCTOBER 7th ATTACKS?
>> YEAH.
I MEAN, THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION.
I THINK WE HAVE TO SEPARATE IT BY PARTIES.
WHEN WE THINK ABOUT REPUBLICANS, THE SHEER FACT IS THAT THE -- YOU KNOW, THE CHANGES IN THE -- INCREASING GLOBAL CONFLICT HAS NOT UPENDED THAT RACE AT ALL.
THERE'S UNIVERSAL AGREEMENT WHEN YOU GET TO REPUBLICANS ABOUT THE NEED TO KIND OF UNCONDITIONALLY SUPPORT ISRAEL.
YOU HAVE KIND OF DONALD TRUMP SAYING, YOU KNOW, PRAISING HEZBOLLAH'S SMART AND SAYING RIDICULOUS, RHETORICAL THINGS.
HE'S BEEN PREVIOUSLY ACCUSED OF ANTI-SEMITISM.
THAT HASN'T REALLY HURT HIM ON THIS ISSUE.
REPUBLICANS ARE GOING TO BE IN UNIVERSAL AGREEMENT TONIGHT ABOUT THE NEED TO SUPPORT ISRAEL, AND BLAMING THE CONFLICT ON JOE BIDEN'S SUPPOSED WEAK LEADERSHIP.
WHERE THERE IS NOT AGREEMENT FOR THEM IS ON THE QUESTION OF INCREASED AID TO UKRAINE, WHICH MUCH OF THAT INTERVENTIONIST TO NONINTERVENTIONIST SPLIT COMES UP, WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT SUPPORTING THEM ON THAT FRONT.
AMONG DEMOCRATS, THOUGH, IT'S UNQUESTIONABLY TRUE THAT THE CONFLICT IN ISRAEL AND GAZA HAS CHANGED KIND OF SOME FOLKS PERCEPTION OF JOE BIDEN.
I'VE BEEN SEEING REPORTING COMING OUT OF MICHIGAN ABOUT THE LARGE COMMUNITY THERE.
AMERICAN JEWISH COMMUNITIES KIND OF CHANGING BASED ON HOW THEY FEEL THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS BEING DIFFERENTIAL TO PRO-PALESTINIAN PROTESTERS.
AND THEN, I THINK, WE SHOULD ALSO SAY, THE BIGGEST GROUP WHERE WE HAVE SEEN THIS TAKE ROOT IS YOUNG FOLKS, WHO HAVE BEEN INCREASINGLY CALLING, LEADING THE CALLS FOR A CEASE-FIRE, PRESSURING THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO EMBRACE THAT TYPE OF LANGUAGE.
AND WE HAVE SEEN ONLY SOME DO THAT, AND REALLY THE TOP OF THE PARTY, JOE BIDEN, CHUCK SCHUMER, OTHERS, REALLY STAY CLEAR FROM THAT.
AND I THINK THAT'S GOING TO BE THE INCREASING QUESTION FOR THIS, IS, DOES THE UNITED STATES' SUPPORT FOR REAL PUT FURTHER AWAY FROM WHERE YOUNG PEOPLE ARE ON THIS ISSUE, AND DOES THAT HURT THE PRESIDENT WHO NEEDED THOSE PEOPLE IN 2020.
>> YOU HAVE ANOTHER SEASON OF YOUR PODCAST UP, AND OF COURSE, THERE'S WHAT PEOPLE IN THE PRESS AND SORT OF PEOPLE WHO WATCH POLITICS THINK EVERYONE CARES ABOUT, AND HERE YOU ARE IN RURAL WASHINGTON STATE.
SO, WHAT DO THE VOTERS THAT YOU'VE BEEN SPEAKING WITH, WHAT DOES RESONATE WITH THEM?
>> YEAH, IT'S A LOT OF THE ISSUES WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT.
ONE THING THAT I REALLY LOVED THAT WE DID ON "THE RUNUP," WE WENT BACK TO PEOPLE AND THEY MATCHED UP A LOT OF OUR REPORTING.
WE WERE IN WASHINGTON STATE, A KIND OF RANDOM PLACE TO GO, BECAUSE IT'S THE LAST AND LONGEST STANDING BELLWETHER COUNTY IN AMERICA.
THIS IS THE ONLY COUNTY THAT'S GOTTEN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE CORRECT EVERY CYCLE SINCE 1980.
WE STAYED IN A DINER AND ASKED THE FOLKS WHO LIVED IN THIS TOWN, OF COURSE, HOW IS THIS GOING TO GO?
YOU TELL US.
AND SO, ONE OF THE THINGS WE KIND OF FOUND FROM THAT EXPLORATION IS, YOU KNOW, TO YOUR POINT, A REAL DISTASTE FOR TRUMP, NOT ONLY AMONG KIND OF OBVIOUSLY DEMOCRATS, BUT AMONG THOSE INDEPENDENTS AND REPUBLICANS.
I TALKED TO PEOPLE WHO VOTED FOR HIM IN 2016 WHO HAD SOURED, WOULD NOT VOTE FOR REPUBLICANS AGAIN.
TALKED TO SOMEONE WHO WROTE IN DAFFY DUCK IN 2020, BUT REFUSES TO BACK DONALD TRUMP IN 2024, AND HAS KIND OF BEEN UPSET WITH THE PARTY FOR AIDING AND ABETTING HIS CANDIDACY'S RISE.
AND SO, EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE THAT KIND OF GROUP OF TRUMP SUPPORTERS, IT SEEMS LIKE A COMMUNITY THAT IS TRENDING FURTHER AWAY FROM WHERE THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS, LIKE A LOT OF SWING VOTERS ARE RIGHT NOW.
SO, THAT WAS THE KIND OF OVERALL THING WE TOOK FROM IT, WAS THAT THERE WAS A SENSE OF ANXIETY AND DREAD ABOUT NEXT YEAR'S ELECTION, THAT THREATENS TO REALLY UPEND THIS FROM THE TOP DOWN.
AND IF PEOPLE FEEL KIND OF UNSATISFIED WITH THESE TWO OPTIONS AND CANDIDATES, IT IS REALLY GOING TO EFFECT HOW THEY VIEW THEIR OWN SENSE OF POWER AND ABILITY TO MAKE CHANGE IN THE POLITICAL SYSTEM.
AND SO, THAT REALLY CAME UP, AND SORT OF WHAT WE WERE DOING IN WASHINGTON, AND IT WASN'T JUST WHO THEY THOUGHT WAS GOING TO WIN, WHICH, FOR THE RECORD, WAS JOE BIDEN, BUT ALSO, THE KIND OF MOOD THAT PEOPLE WERE FEELING ABOUT NEXT YEAR'S ELECTION, AND THAT'S WHAT REALLY STUCK WITH ME, IS THAT IF WE GET THIS TYPE OF REMATCH THAT NOBODY SEEMS TO WANT, WHAT IS THE DOWNSTREAM EFFECTS OF THAT?
>> HOST OF "THE RUNUP" PODCAST AND "NEW YORK TIMES" NATIONAL POLITICS REPORTER ASTEAD HERNDON, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.
>> THANK YOU I REALLY APPRECIATE IT.

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