>>> GOOD EVENING, AND WELCOME TO THIS ARIZONA VOTES 2024 SPECIAL EDITION OF ARIZONA HORIZON.

I'M TED SIMONS.

TONIGHT WE WILL UPDATE THE RESULTS OF TODAY'S ARIZONA PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE ELECTION, WHICH SERVES AS THE STATE'S PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY.

THE RESULTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CUT AND DRY WITH PRESIDENT BIDEN AND FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP ESSENTIALLY RUNNING UNOPPOSED, BUT THERE'S PLENTY TO TALK ABOUT WITH THE GENERAL ELECTION FOR PRESIDENT NOW SET FOR A REMATCH OF THE CLOSE AND CONTENTIOUS 2020 VOTE.

WE HAVE TWO VETERAN POLITICAL CONSULTANTS JOINING US TONIGHT.

CHUCK HOUGHLAND, PRESIDENT AND CEO CONSULTING FIRM HIGH GROUND AND JASON PERAZZA.

GENTLEMEN, GOOD TO HAVE YOU BOTH HERE, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

JASON, WE'LL START WITH YOU.

ANY SURPRISES IN THE NUMBER SO FAR?

WE'LL GET TO THE NUMBERS HERE IN A SECOND, BUT OVERALL ANYTHING TODAY SURPRISE NEW.

>> NOT A WHOLE LOT GOING INTO THIS.

I MEAN, TURN-OUT WAS HISTORICALLY LOW.

NOT SURPRISING BECAUSE EVERYTHING SEEMS TO HAVE ALREADY BEEN DECIDED.

THERE WAS A CONCERN THAT IT WAS GONNA BE OUT THERE, YOU'D SEE A HUGE PULL-AWAY FROM PRESIDENT BIDEN.

WE AREN'T REALLY SEEING THAT MATERIALIZE RIGHT NOW.

SO THAT'S WORKING VERY WELL FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

>> LET'S GO AHEAD AND SHOW THE NUMBERS HERE FOR PRESIDENT BIDEN AS FAR AS THE VOTES ARE CONCERNED.

OVERWHELMING LEAD OF MARION WILLIAMSON, I GUESS, IS TECHNICALLY STILL THERE, BUT -- >> PUTS IN WITH THE 3.4% WITH JUST UNDER 5% RIGHT NOW.

>> BUT OBVIOUSLY THE PRESIDENT DOING VERY WELL.

THE REPUBLICAN SIDE, DONALD TRUMP DOING WHAT, WELL?

NOT AS WELL AS WOULD YOU THINK -- >> SORT OF WHAT'S BEEN HAPPENING TO HIM, YOU KNOW, IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOME OF THESE OTHER STATES.

BUT DIFFERENTLY OUT HERE, INDEPENDENTS CAN'T PARTICIPATE IN THIS ELECTION.

SEEING HIM COME IN AT 74 -- I MEAN, THE RULE IS THAT YOU GOTTA WIN 90% OF YOUR OWN PARTY, 85 TO 90% OF YOUR OWN PARTY IN THE NOVEMBER GENERAL ELECTION.

AND SO IF HE'S LEAVING, IF THERE'S 22, 23% ON THE FLOOR OUT THERE, WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO TO BRING THOSE PEOPLE BACK, AND THAT'S A CHALLENGE.

>> YEAH.

LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT DONALD TRUMP'S NUMBERS HERE AGAIN.

76.4 I THINK WAS THE LAST THING WE SAW.

RELATIVELY CLOSE.

IT'S IN THAT SAME BALLPARK THERE.

YEAH, I MEAN, ME THIS THING LOCKED UP.

LIKE, I DON'T KNOW, CHUCK.

THAT DOESN'T LOOK VERY INSPIRING.

>> NO.

IT'S A NARRATIVE THING.

WE'VE ALL BEEN LISTENING TO HIS NARRATIVE, AND THIS NARRATIVE IS CONSISTENTLY NEGATIVE.

HE'S TALKED -- YOU KNOW, TOLD NIKKI HALEY VOTERS WHERE TO GO, YOU'RE NOT WELCOME IN THE HOUSE ANYMORE.

YOU KNOW, A PENCE PROBLEM THIS WEEK... YOU KNOW, THERE'S A CHARACTER ISSUE FLOATING UNDERNEATH THIS YEAR THAT I THINK THE ELECTORATE IS RECOGNIZING IN SOME OF THIS STUFF.

>> AND LET'S TAKE A LOOK NOW AT THE NIKKI HALEY TURN-OUT.

BECAUSE I NEVER THOUGHT WE'D BE LOOKING AT THE NIKKI HALEY TURN-OUT.

BUT SHE GOT 20 SOME ODD PERCENT OF FOLKS.

REPUBLICAN VOTERS, AND IS THIS A PROTEST VOTE?

WHAT DOES THIS SAY TO YOU?

>> WELL, I THINK AT THIS JUNCTURE IN THE GAME, I HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING HOW THOSE 22% OF THOSE VOTERS COME BACK.

I MEAN AS WE'VE SAID, THE HORSE IS OUT OF THE BARN ON THIS RACE.

IT'S NOT LIKE, HEY, I'M GOING TO GO VOTE TODAY BECAUSE I REALLY HOPE NIKKI HALEY WINS.

THAT'S NOT IT.

I MEAN, PEOPLE ARE SHOWING SAYING I'M VOTING FOR HER.

IT'S MESSY.

>> PEOPLE SHOWING UP TO VOTE FOR JOE BIDEN, DEMOCRATS ARE.

BUT IS THE ENTHUSIASM THERE?

IS THIS A RAH-RAH KIND OF A THING OR IS THIS HE'S THE GUY, LET'S GET VOTE.

>> WELL, IT'S A LITTLE HARD TO PREDICT IN THIS PRIMARY ELECTION.

THE DECISIONS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE, THEY'VE GOT ENOUGH TO LOCK UP THEIR RESPECTIVE PARTY NOMINATION.

IS NOT A LOT OF EXCITEMENT WILL BE GENERATED ACROSS THE BOARD.

WHAT'S EXCITEMENT LIKE IN THE STATE, NATIONALLY FOR PRESIDENT BIDEN, AND I THINK HE'S GETTING OUT -- HE'S LAUNCHING HIS CAMPAIGN ALMOST RIGHT HERE IN ARIZONA.

HE'S HERE RIGHT NOW.

HE HAD A TALK TODAY.

I THINK IT'S NOW TIME TO START BRIDGING THE PARTY TOGETHER AND REALLY BRINGING FORWARD THAT ENTHUSIASM.

>> THOSE KINDS OF VISITS, PRESIDENT BIDEN HERE TODAY, OBVIOUSLY ON ELECTION DAY, BUT JUST THE VISITS THEMSELVES, HOW MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE DOES THAT MAKE?

>> IT MAKES A HUGE DIFFERENCE.

IT'S SUCH A DIFFERENCE FOR THE VOTING POPULOUS TO ACTUALLY SEE THE INDIVIDUAL THAT IS ASKING FOR THEIR VOTE.

SO TO BE PRESENT IN THE STATE SHOWS HOW HE IS VIEWING ARIZONA AS AN IMPORTANT WIN FOR HIS CAMPAIGN.

>>> I WANT TO GET TO THE LATINO VOTE IN A SECOND, BUT AS FAR AS REPUBLICANS AND TRUMP ARE CONCERNED, YOU SEE THESE NUMBERS, YOU SEE WHAT'S GOING -- THE ROAD AHEAD.

I MEAN, IS THIS -- IS THE ROAD AHEAD EVEN PAVED WHEN IT COMES TO A CANDIDATE LIKE DONALD TRUMP?

>> NO.

I MEAN, YOU CAN SAY A NARRATIVE IS PREDICTIVE OF WHERE HE'S GOING TO GO IN THE FUTURE.

BUT WE'VE SEEN, YOU KNOW, HE'S A VERY UNUSUAL CANDIDATE.

AND THE VOLUME OF HIS NEGATIVE ACTIVISM AND ATTACKS, THE QUESTION TO ME SAYS -- THAT APPEARS TO ME IS HOW DO WE TAKE THAT INTO AN ASPIRATIONAL NARRATIVE.

YOU KNOW, YOU TALK ABOUT THE COUNTRY GOING FORWARD PAST THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION AND WHAT I'M GOING TO DO BETTER.

NOT JUST HOW BAD THIS IS, BUT WHAT CAN I DO BETTER TO BRING A BETTER VISION OF LEADERSHIP TO THE STATE -- TO THE COUNTRY.

>> WHEN YOU SEE NUMBERS LIKE THIS IN ARIZONA AND YOU'RE A REPUBLICAN DONOR OR YOU ARE A REPUBLICAN -- JUST A POLITICIAN, AN OFFICE-HOLDER RIGHT NOW, HOW HARD ARE YOU GOING TO CAMPAIGN FOR DONALD TRUMP?

>> I THINK THERE'S A STAGE HOLD, TED.

I THINK THERE'S A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF ENTHUSIASM, WE SEE IT ALL THE TIME.

WE SEE IT IN ALL OF OUR WALKS AND OUR DISCUSSIONS WITH REPUBLICANS.

THERE'S A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF ENTHUSIASM AROUND DONALD TRUMP.

THERE'S A ROMAN TIPSISM ABOUT -- ROMANCISM ABOUT HIM AND IT'S DIFFICULT TO TRY TO HAVE THE KIND OF CONVERSATION WE'RE HAVING RIGHT NOW, WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO?

WELL, THEY'RE RHINOS, THROW THEM UNDER THE BUS INSTEAD OF SAYING OKAY, HOW DO WE BRING THESE PEOPLE BACK IN?

THEIR ANSWER IS THE POINT OF THE OTHER GUY'S, HOW BAD IS THAT GUY?

>> BUT HOW MANY -- HIS RUNNING MATE, HIS VICE-PRESIDENT THIS WEEK BASICALLY SAID I'M OUT.

I CAN'T DO IT.

>> I MEAN THAT BECOME AS CHALLENGE BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, HALEY BARBER, WHO USED TO BE THE REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE GOVERNOR ASSOCIATION, GOVERNOR MISSISSIPPI, I MEAN, I JUST THINK HE'S ONE OF THE SMARTEST POLITICAL GUYS HAD A VERY FAMOUS THING.

POLITICS IS THE ART OF ADDITION, NOT SUBTRACTION.

WE SAW THAT WITH LAKE IN THE LAST CYCLE WHEN SHE HAD A DRAMATIC UNDERCOUNT IN MARICOPA COUNTY BECAUSE SHE HAD TURNED OFF A BUNCH -- KARI LAKE GOT FEWER QUOTES THAN YE, THE TREASURER.

SHE GOT FEWER VOTES THAN RACHEL MITCHELL IN MARICOPA COUNTY.

SO YOU HAVE TO THINK ABOUT THAT NARRATIVE AND HOW YOU'RE GOING TO BRING PEOPLE BACK INTO THE TENT.

>> AS FAR AS DEMOCRATS ARE CONCERNED, IT'S KEEPING PEOPLE IN THE TENT.

AGAIN, THE ENTHUSIASM FACTOR, THE LOYALTY FACTOR, ALSO CONCERNS REGARDING FOREIGN POLICY AND OTHER THINGS THAT THE FAR LEFT NOT SO CRAZY ABOUT THAT RIGHT NOW.

HOW IS THAT MIX WORKING OUT?

>> YOU GOTTA KEEP YOUR BASE IN YOUR HOUSE, BUT WHAT'S INTERESTING IS WE'RE LOOKING AT ABOUT 100,000 VOTERS RIGHT NOW IN ARIZONA THAT PICKED NIKKI NIKKI HALEY, HOW CAN YOU REACH OUT TO THOSE VOTERS AND PROVIDE A SOFT LANDING IN YOUR CAMPAIGN?

IN ARIZONA IN 2020 THIS RACE WAS DECIDED BY 11,000 VOTES.

RIGHT NOW THERE ARE OVER 100,000 VOTES TRENDING TOWARDS NIKKI HALEY.

HOW DO YOU BRING THOSE BACK INTO YOUR CAMP?

>> DO THESE RESULTS SUGGEST THAT INDEPENDENTS ARE LEANING BIDEN?

>> WELL, I DON'T THINK YOU CAN SAY PRETTY MUCH ANYTHING ABOUT INDEPENDENTS WITH REGARDS TO THIS RACE BECAUSE THEY'RE NOT PERMITTED TO VOTE.

THEY'RE NOT PERMITTED TO PARTICIPATE.

I THINK WE SHOULD ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THERE MAY BE SOME INDEPENDENTS THROUGHOUT THAT REGISTERED AS REPUBLICAN TO CAST THIS PROTEST VOTE.

I DON'T THINK I HAVE ANY DOUBT ABOUT THAT.

BUT THE REALITY IS, YOU REALLY CAN'T SAY RIGHT NOW.

BUT WHAT WE HAVE SEEN HISTORICALLY, AS I SAID BEFORE IN THOSE PREVIOUS ELECTIONS IN '16 THEY WON INDEPENDENT VOTERS, MAG GA WON THEM, IN '18 THEY DID NOT, IN '20 THEY DIDN'T, IN '22 THEY DIDN'T.

HERE WE ARE.

I'M A BELIEVER, WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO ABOUT THAT?

IF I'M ON THE TRUMP TEAM, AND I'M HAVING A VIGOROUS DISCUSSION ABOUT THAT.

>> RIGHT NOW I THINK THE HARDEST QUESTION FOR THE TRUMP TEAM REGARDING INDEPENDENTS IS WHAT IS THAT POSITIVE MESSAGE WE WERE JUST TALKING ABOUT THAT YOU'RE GOING TO COMMUNICATE TO THEM?

RIGHT NOW HIS CAMPAIGN IS NEGATIVE, AND THE INDEPENDENT VOTER ISN'T GOING TO RESPOND THAT.

>> AS FAR AS THE BIDEN MESSAGE AND THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN, SO MUCH IS BEING MADE OF HIS AGE.

IT'S VERY DIFFICULT TO GET AROUND.

AND IT'S NOT GOING ANYWHERE.

HE AIN'T GETTING ANY YOUNGER.

HOW DOES THE CAMPAIGN HANDLE THAT?

>> ACKNOWLEDGE IT JUST THE WAY THAT THEY HAVE ACKNOWLEDGED IT.

YOU'RE RIGHT, IT ISN'T GOING AWAY.

HE IS AN OLDER AMERICAN THAT IS IN CHARGE.

BUT IS HE CAUSING DAMAGE TO THE COUNTRY?

IS HE SPEAKING WITH RHETORIC THAT IS REDUCING OUR PLACE IN GLOBAL LANDSCAPE?

THOSE ARE THINGS THAT HE IS NOT DOING, BUT HIS PHONE SENT.

>> AND THE THING I THINK HE'S GOTTA ADDRESS THISSISM GRACE ISSUE.

IT'S BY AND FAR THE LARGEST ISSUE ON THE DECK WITH ARIZONA VOTERS, AND NOW MORE THAN LIKELY WITH MANY OTHER VOTERS IN THE COUNTRY.

AND SO LEFT UNADDRESSED, THAT'S A GIANT WOUND ON HIM GOING FORWARD, BECAUSE IT FEEDS THAT NEGATIVE NARRATIVE.

HE'S NOT IN CHARGE, HE'S NOT SOLVING PROBLEMS.

HE'S NOT ADDRESSING IT.

YOU KNOW, WE CAN ALL DEBANTER ABOUT THAT, BUT THE FACT IS, THE BUCK STOPS WITH HIM WHEN IT COMES TO THE CURRENT SITUATION.

>> THE IMMIGRATION ISSUE, HOW BIG A DEAL IS THAT FOR BIDEN TO HANDLE, FOR THE PRESIDENT TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO GET A HANDLE ON.

>> IT'S A MASSIVE DEAL, AND I THINK HE NEEDS TO CONTINUALLY POINT OUT THAT THERE WAS A SOLUTION ON THE TABLE.

IT WAS A VIABLE SOLUTION.

IT WAS A BIPARTISAN SOLUTION, AND IT WAS REJECTED BY THE REPUBLICANS.

>> AS FAR AS THE REPUBLICANS ARE CONCERNED, AND AGAIN, I'M TALKING ABOUT -- YOU TALK ABOUT REPUBLICAN POLITICIANS, HOW HARD ARE THEY GONNA PUSH OR GO WITH TRUMP.

WHAT ABOUT REPUBLICAN DONORS?

ESPECIALLY WITH ALL OF THE MESSAGES COMING OUT OF MAR-A-LARGO THAT IF YOU DONATE TO THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, YOU'RE DONATING TO DONALD TRUMP'S DEFENSE?

>> WELL, YOU CAN SEE THE ACTUAL IMPACT OF THAT ON THE BIDEN LEDGER.

THEY ARE HAVING A FIELD DAY FUND RAISING.

I MEAN, THEY'RE RECORD FUNDRAISING NUMBERS ARE OVER THE TOP.

SO I THINK THE MARKET IS RESPONDING IN THAT WAY AND SUPPORTING A BIDEN CAMPAIGN AND GIVING HIM PLENTY OF RESOURCES.

I'VE YET TO SEE THAT KIND OF SURGE WITHIN THE RNC, YOU KNOW, THE SENATORIAL COMMITTEE, THERE'S SO MANY CHALLENGES AT THIS TIME ON THEIR HORIZON.

JUST IN ARIZONA, THERE'S A LOT OF CHALLENGES ON THE HORIZON FOR REPUBLICANS.

YOU HAVE THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, THE SENATE CAMPAIGN, THE HOUSE AND SENATE RACES HERE IN ARIZONA, YOU HAVE SEVERAL BALLOT INITIATIVES THAT THEY'RE NOT KEEN ABOUT.

SO THERE'S A MULTIPLE BOGEYS ON THE HORIZON.

THEY'RE GONNA NEED RESOURCES.

>> AS FAR AS DEMOCRATS ARE CONCERNED, LET'S TALK ABOUT KAMALA HARRIS.

AS A VICE-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, SHE'S BEEN THE VICE-PRESIDENT -- ALL VICE-PRESIDENTS ARE SEMIINVISIBLE.

VERY MUCH SO ON HER PART.

IS -- DOES SHE HELP OR HURT THE CAUSE?

>> I THINK SHE'S JUST FINE WITH THE CAUSE.

I THINK WHAT ONE OF THE ISSUES THAT SHE'S HAVING IS PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN WAS SUCH A FANTASTIC VICE-PRESIDENT WHEN HE WAS IN OFFICE AND HAD THAT POSITION.

HE WAS OUT, HE WAS ACTIVE.

HE WAS A VERY UNLIKELY VICE-PRESIDENT.

HE BROKE THE MOLD OF WHAT WE NORMALLY SEE OF VICE-PRESIDENTS.

VICE-PRESIDENT HARRIS IS BACK IN, NOW.

A LITTLE BIT MORE BEHIND THE SCENES, WORKING DIFFERENTLY THAN PRESIDENT BIDEN DID.

AND SO SEEING HER OUT ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL IS WHERE SHE'S GOING TO EXCEL.

>> CAN REPUBLICANS MAKE HAY WITH THE IDEA THAT PRESIDENT BIDEN IS OF AGE AND SHE IS NEXT IN LINE?

>> YOU BET.

YOU'RE GONNA HEAR THAT.

YOU'RE GONNA HEAR A LOT OF THAT.

AS JOHN MCCAIN USED TO SAY, THE WORST JOB IN THE COUNTRY, YOU KNOW, YOU GO TO FUNERALS AND -- YOU KNOW, BUT THAT IS -- YOU'RE GONNA HEAR THAT.

AND BECAUSE IT'S A VERY DIFFICULT JOB UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCE.

IT IS A MORE DIFFICULT JOB FOR HER UNDER THIS CIRCUMSTANCE BECAUSE OF THE PERCEIVED FRAILTY OF THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE.

>> BEFORE WE MOVE ON, I WANT TO GET TO THE LATINO VOTE HERE BECAUSE THAT'S A VERY IMPORTANT ISSUE AND WE TALKED ABOUT IT ON ARIZONA HORIZON.

LET'S GET BACK TO THE NUMBERS HERE.

WE'LL START WITH PRESIDENT BIDEN AS FAR AS THE DEMOCRATIC RACE IS CONCERNED IF IT IS SUCH A THING AS A RACE, AND THE NUMBERS SHOW THAT PRESIDENT BIDEN HAS OBVIOUSLY A SIGNIFICANT AND OVERWHELMING LEAD THERE.

MARION WILLIAMSON IS THE ONLY OTHER PERSON ON THE BALLOT, AND SHE IS VERY FAR OFF INTO THE DISTANCE.

DONALD TRUMP, WE CAN GET HIS NUMBERS UP THERE.

AT 76 SOME ODD PERCENT HERE.

THAT IS MARION WILLIAMSON.

LET'S MOVE ON.

AGAIN, WE'VE GOT 20% OR SO GOING WITH NIKKI HALEY, HER NUMBERS ARE -- I DON'T KNOW.

I FIND THAT A LITTLE BIT SURPRISING.

I KNOW YOU GUYS DON'T NECESSARILY FIND THAT SURPRISING.

I FIND THAT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THIS IS SUPPOSED TO BE THE PARTY OF TRUMP.

>> RIGHT.

THAT'S A CHALLENGE.

AND IT WAS A LOW TURN-OUT.

IT'S A FAIRLY LOW TURN-OUT ELECTION.

BUT THESE ARE HIGHLY MOTIVATED VOTERS.

I MEAN, IF YOU'RE GOING OUT TO VOTE FOR HALEY ON THIS, YOU'RE A HIGHLY MOTIVATED VOTER.

I DON'T KNOW HOW BROAD THAT SPECTRUM IS, HOW MUCH BIGGARY PART OF THE ELECTORATE THAT CAN BE -- BIGGER A PART OF THE ELECT RATE THAT WE CAN COMPARE IT TO BUT THAT EXISTS AND THAT'S A PROBLEM AND HE'S GONNA HAVE TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO ADDRESS THAT.

>> THE PRESIDENT LAUNCHED THE LATINO'S CONE BIDEN/HARRIS INITIATIVE.

HE'S OUT HERE, AMONG THE REASON HERE IN NEVADA EARLIER IN THE DAY, IS TO COURT THE LATINO VOTE.

THE IMPACT OF THE LATINO VOTE IN ARIZONA, WE'LL STICK WITH THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RIGHT NOW.

HOW BIG?

>> IT'S HUGE.

THE LATINOS HAVE BEEN INCREASING THEIR IMPORTANCE IN AMERICA'S ELECTORAL POLITICS YEAR AFTER YEAR AFTER YEAR.

I'VE BEEN DOING THIS FOR ABOUT 20 YEARS.

AND SINCE THE BEGINNING WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF THE LATINO VOTE, AND IT'S DONE NOTHING BUT INCREASE.

IS IT IMPORTANT IN ARIZONA?

CRITICAL IN ARIZONA.

IS IT IMPORTANT NATIONALLY?

IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT NATIONALLY.

>> IT'S AN INTERESTING PART OF THE LEG ELECTORATE.

IT REALLY IS UP FOR GRABS PIECE OF THE ELECTORATE.

MOST PEOPLE THINK ABOUT THE SPANISH ISSUE ELECTORATE, A LOT IT IS OLDER.

AND THAT'S WHY NUMBERS BECOME MORE AND MORE IMPORTANT.

A LOT OF THEM WILL SUCCESSFUL, A LOT OF THEM HAVE BUSINESSES.

THERE'S A LOT OF SMALL BUSINESS PEOPLE IN THERE THAT CAN BE ATTRACTED TO SOME OF TRUMP'S ECONOMIC POLICIES, AND THE FAILURE ON THE IMMIGRATION SIDE IT CUTS BOTH WAYS.

THE YOUNGER HISPANIC VOTERS, OBVIOUSLY BIGGER ON ADVOCATES FOR FREER IMMIGRATION AND IMPROVING OUR IMMIGRATION POLICIES.

MAYBE NOT SO MUCH SO ON SOME OF THE OLDER ONES.

GUN OWNERS, ABORTION'S ON THE BALLOT.

THERE'S A BUNCH OF ISSUE THERE IS THAT CAN BE WORKED WITH REPUBLICAN CONSTITUENCY IF THEY'RE SKILLFUL AT IT TO TRY TO BRING THOSE VOTERS IN.

>> I ABSOLUTELY LOVE THE ELECTORATE THAT IS LATINO, THAT IS HISPANIC, HAS GROWN TO THE PORTION WHERE WE CAN START BREAKING IT APART INTO INDIVIDUAL ISSUES, THAT AREN'T JUST IMMIGRATION OR THAT JUST AREN'T SOMETHING THAT'S PARTICULAR TO THAT COMMUNITY.

WE ARE START TALKING ABOUT THEIR INTEREST IN BUSINESS, IN EDUCATION, IN HEALTHCARE.

THEY ARE VERY REMINISCENT OF THE REST OF THE ELECTORATE.

SO LET'S START LOOKING AT THEM IN THAT WAY.

>> FOUR YEARS AGO PRESIDENT BIDEN WON THE LATINO VOTE 2 TO 1 OVER TRUMP.

THERE ARE REPORTS AND STUDIES OUT THERE RIGHT NOW THAT ARE SUGGESTING THERE'S QUITE A BIT OF A SLIDE NOW OVER TO REPUBLICANS AND OVER TO TRUMP.

WE'VE GOT AN ASU PROFESSOR ON THE EARLIER EDITION OF ARIZONA HORIZON TONIGHT.

HE'S SAYING DON'T TRUST THOSE STUDIES BECAUSE THE SAMPLE SIZE WERE TOO SMALL.

I'M GETTING MIXED MESSAGES.

>> NO, I THINK THERE'S OPPORTUNITY FOR CONCERN.

I DON'T THINK THAT THE HISPANIC DEMOGRAPHIC IS SOMETHING THAT SHOULD BE DISREGARDED, IF IT IS WE'RE GONNA -- THE DEMOCRATS ARE GONNA END UP IN A 2016 SITUATION.

IT'S A DEMOGRAPHIC THAT NEEDS TO BE LOOKED AT, THAT NEEDS TO BE COURTED, THAT NEEDS TO BE SPOKEN TO ON THE ISSUES THAT THEY CARE ABOUT.

BUT I DON'T THINK THAT THEY'RE GONNA GO AWAY, NOT WITH THE RHETORIC THAT'S COMING OUT OF THE TRUMP CAMP.

THAT IS -- IT IS TOO FILLED WITH HATE TO BRING PEOPLE IN.

>> WHAT DO YOU THINK?

>> WELL, I THINK THERE'S A DISCOURTED PIECE OF NARRATIVE THERE WITH REGARD TO SOME OF THE CULTURAL TRADITIONS OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY THAT DOESN'T STRONGLY THINK WITH THOSE OLDER HISPANIC VOTERS.

YOU KNOW, THE SOCIAL HISTORY IN GENERAL ARE TROUBLESOME WITH SOME OF THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ASPECTS OF HISPANIC CULTURE AND HE OLDER VOTERS AND BUSINESS OWNERS, AND SO I WOULD EXPECT TO HEAR A LOT ABOUT THAT, YOU KNOW, THAT FROM THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN.

I AGREE WITH MY COLLEAGUE HERE OF TALKING ABOUT, YOU KNOW, HOW DO YOU MORPH THAT INTO A POSITIVE MESSAGE?

I JUST HAVE NOT SEEN YET THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN ADJUST ITS NARRATIVE TO BE WELCOMING TO PEOPLE WHO AREN'T STRICTLY INSIDE THE MAGA TENT RIGHT NOW.

>> AND THAT GOES BACK TO THE IDEA OF PRESIDENT BIDEN APPEARING HERE AND HOW BIG A DEAL IS THAT.

JUST SAYING YOU ARE WELCOME HERE, I LIKE YOU.

I MEAN, SOMETHING AS SIMPLE AS "I LIKE YOU."

HOW BIG A DIFFERENCE DOES THAT MAKE?

>> THAT'S A HUGE DIFFERENCE.

IT JUST SPEAKS TO THE PERCEPTION OF THAT DEMOGRAPHIC, THE RESPECT THAT'S GIVEN TO THAT DEMOGRAPHIC.

IT IS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT, AND IT'S NIGHT AND DAY BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPAIGNS.

>> AS FAR AS ISSUES, LATINO VOTE IN PARTICULAR, THE GENERAL VOTE, AS WELL, JOBS, AFFORDABLE HOUSING, INFLATION IN, HOW BIG A FACTOR -- HOW A BIG A FACTOR NOW, HOW BIG A FACTOR DOWN THE EXPLODE.

>> THESE ARE ALL IMPORTANT ISSUES.

I THINK IN ARIZONA WE'RE GONNA SEE THOSE ISSUES TALKED ABOUT, ESPECIALLY ON THE HOUSING FRONT.

IT'S AN ISSUE THAT'S CRITICAL TO ARIZONA AND WE SEE ITS IMPACT EVERY SINGLE DAY.

THE ECONOMY AS A WHOLE IS GOING TO BE A HUGE ISSUE.

BUT AGAIN, WHAT IS GOING TO BE INTERESTING TO SEE DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT MONTH, TWO MONTHS, THREE MONTHS OR SO IS THE NARRATIVE AROUND IT.

WHAT IS YOUR VISION FOR WHERE AMERICA IS GOING.

RIGHT NOW I THINK BIDEN IS DEVELOPING THE FRAMEWORK TO TALK ABOUT A POSITIVE AMERICA, AMERICA THAT'S GROWING, NOT AN AMERICA THAT'S MOVING BACKWARD.

>> AND HE'S -- I THINK THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN IS GOING TO NARRATE.

SO WE'RE NOW IN SUMMER BLEND SEASON, SO GAS PRICES ARE GOING UP AGAIN.

YOU KNOW, YOU CAN POINT THAT OUT, WELL, THAT'S BECAUSE WE HAVE A SUMMER BLEND.

BUT GAS PRICES ARE STARTING TO GO UP AGAIN.

FOOD PRICES HAVE REMAINED STEADILY HIGH.

THOSE ARE THINGS CONSUMERS SEE EVERY DAY AND THAT UPSET THEM PRINCIPALLY ABOUT THE STATUS OF THE ECONOMY.

I THINK THE BACKGROUND MUSIC, AS WE ALL KNOW IN ARIZONA, OUR RECESSION IS EVERYBODY ELSE'S BOOM.

YOU KNOW, WE GROW OUT HERE, AND THERE'S A LOT OF GOOD NEWS THAT THE PRESIDENT CAN TALK ABOUT, BUT THERE'S GONNA BE AN UNDERLYING CURRENT BECAUSE WE'VE SEEN A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE NUMBERS IN BIDEN'S LEADERSHIP ON THESE ISSUES.

AND I THINK THOSE TWO ISSUES ARE GOING TO HAUNT HIM THROUGHOUT THIS CAMPAIGN.

>> DO YOU AGREE -- THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE, THE LACK OF, I DON'T KNOW, ASSERTIVENESS, I DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU WOULD CALL IT, DO YOU SEE THIS?

>> YEAH, I THINK WE DO SEE IT, AND I THINK IT'S PLAIN AS DAY WHEN YOU TALK TO JUST THE STANDARD VOTER AND THEY THINK AMERICA IS WORSE OFF RIGHT NOW UNDER PRESIDENT BIDEN WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE DATA AND IT'S NOT.

YET, THEIR PERCEPTION ISN'T.

SO I THINK THAT THE JOB OF PRESIDENT BIDEN IS TO START TALKING ABOUT ALL OF THE GOOD THAT HE HAS DONE AND THE GOOD THAT HE WANT TO SEE.

AND I THINK THAT'S THE NARRATIVE THAT WILL CARRY HIM FORWARD.

>> I THINK -- YOU YOU KNOW, I THINK IT IS IN BIDEN'S BENEFIT TO KEEP A FOCUS ON CHARACTER, TOO.

YOU KNOW, I THINK WE MENTIONED THIS EARLIER, YOU KNOW, TRUMP'S NOT THERE.

I DON'T THINK HALEY'S GONNA ENDORSE HIM.

I DON'T THINK THERE'S A SINGLE MEMBER -- PENCE ISN'T THERE.

I DON'T THINK THERE'S A SINGLE MEMBER OF HIS FORMER CABINET THAT'S GONNA GO WORK FOR HIM.

AND, YOU KNOW, THAT'S A MESSAGE I THINK BIDEN COULD PLAY OUT AND SAY, LOOK, YOU KNOW WHO'S GONNA WORK FOR ME.

THESE ARE THE PEOPLE THAT HAVE BROUGHT ME THIS FAR.

I HAVE A TRUSTED TEAM, AND IT'S A BIGGER JOB THAN ONE PERSON.

WHO'S HE GOT?

YOU KNOW, THAT'S GONNA BE, I THINK, A NARRATIVE THAT A BIDEN CAMPAIGN SHOULD EXPRETTY.

>> WE HAVE SOME UPDATED NUMBERS SUCH AS THEY ARE IN THESE RACES SUCH AS THEY ARE.

PRESIDENT BIDEN, THE DEMOCRATS, AND OF COURSE THE PRESIDENT, FOR ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSE, IS RUNNING UNOPPOSED, CLOSE TO 90% THERE.

MARION WILLIAMSON, IF WE COULD GO AHEAD AND PUT HER UP THERE BECAUSE SHE IS AMONG THOSE ON THE BALLOT.

AND AS YOU CAN SEE, HOLY SMOKES, SHE'S WAY DOWN THERE.

AS FAR AS FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP IS CONCERNED, AGAIN, HE IS AT OR NEAR 76%.

HAS BEEN THERE PRETTY MUCH -- 75, 76% ALL NIGHT.

THAT'S WHERE HE STAYS.

NIKKI HALEY AT OR NEAR 20% ALL EVENING, AND THAT'S WHERE SHE PRETTY MUCH REMAINS.

AND DO WE HAVE THE GRAPHIC OF THE BOTH OF THEM TOGETHER?

TRUMP AND NIKKI HALEY TOGETHER?

THERE WE GO.

I MEAN, THAT'S A BLOW-OUT, THAT'S A LANDSLIDE, BUT THAT SHOULDN'T EVEN BE THERE.

>> RIGHT, THAT'S YOUR PROBLEM.

>> THAT'S THE INTERNAL PROBLEM BECAUSE AS WE SAID, YOU HAVE TO -- IN ORDER TO BE SUCCESSFUL IN A GENERAL ELECTION, IN ARIZONA, YOU KNOW, YOU'RE GONNA NEED 90% OF YOUR OWN PARTY.

WE ANTICIPATE THE CYCLE LOOKING SOMETHING LIKE A 36% REPUBLICAN TURN-OUT IN THE FALL WITH 32% DEMOCRAT.

SO 4 POINT REPUBLICAN ADVANTAGE, BUT THERE'S 28% OF UNAFFILIATED VOTERS THAT WE ANTICIPATE SHOWING UP.

AND THAT MIX, IF YOU'RE NOT HOLDING THAT 90% OF YOUR BASE AND YOU'RE NOT MAKING PROGRESS ON THAT UNAFFILIATED SIDE, THAT'S A PROBLEM.

>> LET'S TALK ABOUT REAL QUICKLY HERE BECAUSE WE'RE GETTING CLOSE TO THE END OF THE PROGRAM, BUT I FIND THIS FASCINATING.

THAT BALLOT IS GOING TO READ LIKE A RUSSIAN NOVEL.

I MEAN, THERE'S GONNA BE A LOT OF THINGS ON THAT BALLOT, JASON, THINGS FROM THE U.S. SENATE RACE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO ANYTHING ELSE YOU WANT TO FIND, THE MEASURES, ALL SORTS OF THINGS.

HOW ARE THEY GOING TO IMPACT NOT ONLY TURN-OUT BUT WHO TURNS OUT AND WHO MIGHT JUST SAY, AH, WHAT THE HECK, I'M VOTING FOR HIM.

>> I THINK IT WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT FOR REPUBLICANS.

AND HERE'S WHY.

IT'S GOING TO HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON THE POLLS ON ELECTION DAY WHERE THEY ARE TRADITIONALLY GOING TO BE SHOWING UP AND VOTING.

YOU'RE GONNA HAVE A VOTER THAT WILL BE IN THAT VOTING BOOTH AND GET FATIGUED AND GIVE IT UP AND IS NOT GOING TO REGISTER TO VOTE ON ALL OF THE ITEMS THAT ARE DOWN ON THE BALLOT.

THOSE VOTERS VOTING AT HOME THAT HAVE TIME TO SIT DOWN WITH THE BALLOT, TO GO THROUGH IT, MAYBE A EVEN MAKE SOME VOTES AND THINK ABOUT IT A LITTLE BIT AND COME BACK, THOSE ARE THE VOTES THAT WILL GET REGISTERED MORE OFTEN DOWN BALLOT AND YOU'LL SEE THE THE BENEFIT COME TOWARDS THE DEMOCRATS.

>> TRADITIONALLY REPUBLICANS WON EARLY BALLOTING UP UNTIL TRUMP AND NOW DEMOCRATS HAVE PROVEN THEY CAN TURN IN MORE EARLY BALLOTS AND TRUMPER VOTERS THE DAY OF.

THAT'S A REAL PROBLEM.

I THINK THERE WAS A MEMO PUT OUT THE OTHER DAY IN TERMS OF THE LINK OF THE BALLOT, MAYBE THREE, FOUR PAGES, YOU KNOW, AND MY THINKING IS THAT -- THE -- A BIG DEMOCRATIC DRAW ON THE BALLOT IS THE ABORTION ISSUE, THE REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS INITIATIVE.

THAT'S GONNA BE IN THAT 100 SERIES, THAT'S A CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT.

SO IT WILL BE A 100 SERIES QUESTION.

WE SHOULD BE HIGHER UP, MAYBE ON THAT SECOND PAGE, MAYBE THE THIRD PAGE OF THE BALLOT.

SO I THINK IT KEEPS PEOPLE PARTICULARLY THAT AUDIENCE IN THE GAME.

>> INTERESTING.

ALL RIGHT.

LET'S WRAP IT UP HERE.

JASON, GIVE US A HEADLINE OF WHAT HAPPENED TONIGHT.

>> NIKKI HALEY VOTERS TURNED IT OVER FOR BIDEN.

I MEAN, COME ON.

THERE'S OVER 100,000 VOTERS THERE.

REPUBLICAN VOTERS THAT DID NOT SHOW UP FOR TRUMP TONIGHT, THAT'S GONNA HAVE A HUGE IMPACT IN NOVEMBER.

>> WHAT DO YOU THINK?

WHAT WAS THE BIG STORY?

>> WINS FOR BOTH NOMINEES.

TROUBLING SIGNS FOR TRUMP IN TERMS OF HIS COALITION.

>> AND GIVE ME A SUBHEAD HERE.

WHAT HAPPENS FROM HERE ON?

WHAT DO WE WATCH FOR?

>> WE WATCH FOR THIS TO PLAY OUT IN THE MEDIA ON TV, IN THE PUBLIC.

THIS IS GONNA BE A WILD ELECTION CYCLE.

WE'VE GOT A LOT MORE TO GO.

>> WELL, I THINK WHAT I'D LOOK FOR IS, A, DOES BIDEN DO SOMETHING ON IMMIGRATION?

I GOTTA BELIEVE THAT HE HAS TO DO SOMETHING BETWEEN NOW AND THE CONVENTION ABOUT THAT, AND I WOULD ALSO WANT TO BE WATCHING TO SEE WHAT THAT TRUMP NARRATIVE IS, BECAUSE HE'S GOTTA UNDERSTAND THE NEED TO BROADEN HIS BASE.

>> ALL RIGHT.

GENTLEMEN, THANK YOU SO MUCH.

GREAT CONVERSATION, GREAT INFORMATION.

THANK YOU BOTH FOR BEING HERE.

REALLY APPRECIATE.

>> PLEASURE.

>> THAT'S IT FOR NOW.

I'M TED SIMONS, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

YOU HAVE A GREAT REST OF THE EVENING.