The Cities with Jim Mertens
Election Expectations
Season 16 Episode 44 | 25m 38sVideo has Closed Captions
WIU Political Scientist Dr. Boekelman & River Bend Food Bank's Avery Owens
Jim Mertens talks with Dr. Keith Boeckelman, Western Illinois University Political Scientist, about the results of the 2026 midterm elections. Jim also talks with Avery Owens, River Bend Food Bank Development Director, about The Student Hunger Drive and what it does for the community. Follow us everywhere: @wqptpbs
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The Cities with Jim Mertens is a local public television program presented by WQPT PBS
The Cities is proudly funded by Wheelan-Pressly Funeral Home & Crematory.
The Cities with Jim Mertens
Election Expectations
Season 16 Episode 44 | 25m 38sVideo has Closed Captions
Jim Mertens talks with Dr. Keith Boeckelman, Western Illinois University Political Scientist, about the results of the 2026 midterm elections. Jim also talks with Avery Owens, River Bend Food Bank Development Director, about The Student Hunger Drive and what it does for the community. Follow us everywhere: @wqptpbs
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Learn Moreabout PBS online sponsorshipThe votes are cast, counted, and soon to be certified.
And tons of foo has just arrived in a warehouse.
Where does it go next in The Cities.
[lively music] [music ends] Millions of dollars were spent to sway your vote, but many voters still voted, as they always do, eithe for a Democrat or a Republican.
And this election, like so many, depended on who got out the vote, who stayed home, and which candidate appealed to the independent voter.
Many of the Illinois races were not exactly nail biters.
So what messages did the state's voters give Tuesday night?
We talked with Western Illinoi University political scientist Dr.
Keith Boeckelman about th takeaways from election night.
The old political adage is, once Labor Day is over, that's when people start getting serious about voting and the elections.
If that's still the case.
I think that's largely the case.
I think for about 80 of the population, that's true.
I think it's probably a little bit later during, midterm election years like this one.
I think people will start to pay attention a little bit earlier during presidential election years.
I think there's also about 20% of the population that's always plugged in, probably a lot of viewers of your show, frankly, that are paying attention to politics year round.
But for about 80% of voters I think that's generally true.
They don't pay attention till after Labor Day.
But I wonder also, I mean, I would think that 20% level is increasing only because of social media.
I mean, politics plays such a huge role in so much of social media these days.
Well, it does, but I think a lot of people that are not really plugged into politics, there's this saying that, you know, X or Twitter isn't really real life, and I think there's some truth to that.
So the people who are plugged in to social media, political, social media like or Blue Sky or whatever it is, I think those people are maybe not typical of the larger population.
There is, you know, political content on all other types of social media as well, like Instagram and Facebook and so forth.
And that can be useful for candidates to help them advertise.
But I'm not sure that for the average person, they're really as honed in on that year round, as this 20% are.
And I think that is interesting because you look at social media and it just does seem to be in some ways, the launching pad to define a candidate either pro or con.
And we were discussing, earlier, lawn signs.
It used to be the lawn signs were a big deal to introduce people and to test how popular a candidate is.
Now, is it more social media and traditional campaigning?
Has is just changed?
I do think it's changed.
I mean, social media has had a couple of impacts, I think, that are important.
One has to do with fundraising.
So, it's much easier to grassroot fundraise through social media and to reach small donors than it used to be.
I mean, it used to be you had to send out the mail, which is pretty expensive to, you know, to get as many people as you're going to reach.
And the people who are going to respond is pretty small.
So now, with social media it's a lot easier to fundraise.
I also think for, particularly talented candidates, social media is a godsend to get their message across.
I mean, I think, for example, like Zohran Mamdani and, New York City, the mayor's race, he was very effective in having these, sort of video clips that went out on social media and introduced him.
And I think a candidate like him would have never become mayor of New York in the pre-social media age.
I also think, though, that there's still a lot of retro thinking in campaigns, and many candidates are still dependent on old time ads and on TV, and I'm not sure how well they work anymore, even though there's still quite a bit of money that goes to that.
Let's tal about the campaigns in Illinois, because the one big striking fact, I'd like to start with the congressional races, is that, according to the Cook Political Report, 14 Illinois congressional district are listed as solid Democratic and three as solid Republican.
It's like foregone conclusions in all of these, congressional districts in Illinois.
Well, I think it is this year.
You know, when this district, these districts in Illinois were first drawn, in 2022, I thought maybe the Democrats had sliced the ham a little bit too thin.
The 17th Congressional District, for example has been pretty competitive in recent years, and the Democrat Eric Sorensen has won, but and he won fairly comfortably last time, but the previous ones were a little bit closer.
But I think this year all the winds are blowing in the Democrats favor.
And so I think they're likely to hang on to all these 14 congressional seats.
The 17th district was the closest one in 2024, Sorensen won by like 54% or something like that.
There were a couple others there.
The victor was about 55% the Chicago suburbs, but all the other Democratic seat they won even more comfortably.
So I think that, you know, again, given the, favorable currents for the Democrats in this upcoming election, I anticipate that they will win all 14 seats again.
And talking about the 17th district, I think, it's usually seen at least through the Cook Report of being, usually a Republican up by three points in the 17th Congressional District.
In other words, it is kind of a borderline Democrat, Republican swing type of district.
As you point out, Sorense winning the last few elections, Bustos having it a number of years before that.
And really there was, and then, Phil Hare, and then just that little period of time when it was Bobby Schilling, I mean, the Western side of, Illinois, the 17th district has a lot of beat red counties, but still seems to elect, Democratic congresspeople.
Yeah.
Well, I think part of this goes back t the redistricting issue again.
And so it was hard fo the Democrats to draw a district in northwestern Illinois that would favor a Democrat.
But I think they've worked over the years to cram more and more Democrats into the district.
So, you know, it goes, int Rockford now, the Quad Cities, and so really, all around northwest and even central Illinois, parts of it, to try to fin as many Democrats as possible to cram in the district.
And so this, this district historically been kind of a textbook case of gerrymandering.
One of the textbooks I use to use in my government class, they picture the 17th district as their case study or their example of gerrymandering.
And so I think that, you know, that that's what's happened is it's been continually, drawn in such a way that it puts more and more Democrats, even as the general area has probably trended a little bit more Republican.
But it did try to find more Democrats to put in the district.
Yeah, because the 17th district has had weird shape along the Mississippi River.
And then even before the latest redistricting, it seemed to have that sliver of a cla that went into Springfield area.
As you said, they were looking for metropolitan areas.
Right, and so that's that's where the Democrats are in the bigger cities.
And, of course, you know, Chicago area, obviously there's a lot of Democrats, but, you to find Democrats downstate, you have to go to these urban areas.
And that's what theyve done with the 17th district.
And so the surroundin districts are very Republican.
The three Republican districts that, you know, in 2024, two of them, there was no opponent.
And the third one, Mike Bosts district, he won by 75% of the vote.
So these other districts are very overwhelming.
The three Republican districts are very overwhelming Republicans.
So it's highly unlikel that anyone who is a Republican would lose those districts as well.
Yeah, exactly.
So does this do a disservice to the voters?
Because they don't really, let's be honest, have that big of a chance or that big of a choic among two different candidates because one party has such domination in that district.
Well, in my view, yes, it doe do a disservice to the voters.
I much prefer the Iowa syste where, the districts are drawn by a nonpartisan body and they are competitive.
So right no there are all four House members in Iowa Republicans.
But as recently as a few election cycles ago, three out of four were Democrats.
So you have competition.
Really, three of the four Iowa congressional districts are competitive.
The Far West or Northwestern one is not particularly competitive, but the other three are pretty competitive and could go either way.
And I think that's muc more beneficial from the voters.
They can express their will better if there is real competition.
Let's talk about the statewide races.
We'll start, I guess, with governor, JB Pritzker and, Darren Bailey.
Is Bailey seeing any traction?
Are we seeing any increase?
Because it seems to be a Pritzker juggernaut, with a whole lot of millions of dollars there to be spent.
Well, as we all know, Pritzker is a billionaire, so he's got a lot of money to spend, and that's to his advantage.
I think Baile this time is taking a little bit of a different tack which is a wise one, in my view, in Illinois, and that he's he's de-emphasizing social issues, sort of being an anti-abortion candidate and so forth that are unpopular in the suburbs.
And emphasizing more fiscal issues, property taxes, things like that.
So I think that's a good campaign tackle on his part.
Will it be enough?
I doubt it.
I you know, as you alluded to, he's way behind in the money race because of Pritzker's personal wealth.
There have also been some big Republican donors, like Ken Griffin, who have been involved i supporting the Republican Party financially in the past who have moved out of state now.
And so not only in the governor's race, but across the board.
The Republican Party is really behind financially.
And again, given, the the expectation it'll be a Democratic year, I would anticipate Pritzker winning again.
The one caveat I would hav is that sometimes it's hard to win a third term as governor.
The last time an Illinois governor ran for a thir term was Jim Thompson in 1982, and he narrowly defeated Adlai Stevenson in that election.
So the third time is not always a charm.
But again, I would anticipate Pritzker winning.
And how much does he have to win by in order to pave the way for a possible presidential run?
I mean, obviously he has to dominate Illinois if he wants to see any type of traction going on for a 2028 race.
Well, so I think he won by about he had about 54, 55% win last time, whic is comfortable not overwhelming.
I think it was it'd be i his interest to build that, up.
So I think if he could show that he did better in this election.
So if he gets in the high 50s, say, I think that would be a, sort of a good jumping off point for him.
If he wins with, you know, 51% of the vote or something like that, Then I think that does dampen his national efforts is a little bit.
The other big statewide race, of course, Stratton Tracy for the US, Senate, to replace Dick Durbin.
And once again, Democrats expected to do well in that Senate race.
And and perhaps most likely hang on to that seat.
Yeah.
I think, you know, again given the nature of the, money in this race, given the nature, given the fact there' going to be a Democratic year, likely to be a Democratic year, I think Stratton is the clear favorite.
She has led in fundraising and also, Don Tracy has been able to raise some money, but I, Stratton also has kind of a connection to Pritzker as his lieutenant governor, and he has supported her strongly in the primary.
So I think she would also have acces to more campaign contributions from him if she needed it.
But from what I can tell, neither party at the national level is targeting this race.
And so I think both the Senate Republicans and the Senate Democrats assum that Stratton is going to win.
So they do not seem to be putting any of many resources into this race.
Well, so I'm talking about statewide races and congressional races.
Of course, there's there's state legislative races as well.
The Democrats having supermajority in the House and the Senate.
Is it a real problem that if there isn't this big statewide race that Republicans are enthusiastic about, that it's really going to have an impact down ballot?
Yes, I think so.
And, politics has become much more nationalized in recent years.
And so in state legislative races, people vote based on the party label more than they used to.
They used to be more willing to split their party from, you know, the state level to the national level.
That's less and less true.
And so, again, if the predictions hold out, that the Democrats do well on this election and that will probably trickle down to the, state legislative level as well.
You know, I think there are a few seat in play that the Democrats could lose, particularly in kind of the exurban Chicago area, but I don't see it being enough that they would lose their super majority in either House right now.
And I just have a few moments left with you.
Are you also concerned at all about, questions of the voting results in November?
That, that that a lot of candidates may not accept the results?
Yes I think that's a very bad trend.
One of the foundational tenets of American democracy is that peaceful transition of power.
And the losers accept the results.
In recent years you've seen that less and less.
And I think that's a real threat to our system a real threat to our democracy.
So I, I'm very troubled by that trend.
And I hope, I hope we don't see a lot of that.
I think you have seen in a lo of the primaries that candidates who have los have conceded, in both parties.
And so I hope that that continues into the general election.
Our thanks to Western Illinoi University political scientist Doctor Keith Boeckelman.
Next week, we'll take a closer look at the close results seen in Iowa races.
But just ahead the students have taken action.
What impact does a hunger drive actually have on hunger?
But first, what's happening in our area that may take your mind off of politics?
Thanks to visit Quad Cities.
[soft music] Check out the things t do this week in the Quad Cities.
Start your week off by getting creative.
Learn to paint a beautiful moon reflectio while enjoying delicious brews.
Next, try and gues a song, title and artist to win prizes during Nam That Tune at Oak Grove Tavern.
Then spend an evenin at an adult themed comedy murder mystery dinner.
Sit back, relax and enjoy the chaos.
Next, bundle u because you can watch Disney's “Frozen: take the stage at the Quad City Music Guild.
Finally, your kiddos, ages 6 through 12, can learn how to make some Thanksgiving treats.
For more events like this, check out our events calendar at VisitQuadCities.com [music ends] The Student Hunge drive wrapped up its 40th year with 15 schools participating in an effort to fill the warehouse at the Riverbend Food Bank and the shelves at area food pantries and ultimately, the kitchens in homes across 23 counties.
Riverbend Food Bank Development Director Avery Owen joined us to talk about hunger and the effor to feed more of our neighbors.
I think sometimes people think of hunger as somebody else's problem.
But really in the Quad City area, it is prevalent.
I mean, it's kind of, behind the curtain, so to speak.
It's it's hidden for a lot of people.
Yeah.
That's actually a very common misconceptio that we work with the students about, with student hunger drive or any person that we're talking with at the food bank.
Currently, 1 in 5 children are experiencing food insecurity and 1 in 7 adults.
So something I teach the students when I go into the schools and do an educational component is count to five.
If you can count to five, we all should be able to.
And you know, on that fifth person, that person is probably experiencing food insecurity.
So when you're looking out to, you know, the stage or if you're performing or you're looking out to the crowd as a cheerleader o an athlete, like, look at that, you know, fifth person, and that goes a long way.
That's a lot of people who are experiencing hunger.
And in so many ways, I mean when you talk about the student hunger drive of course, you're talking about an amazing impact for Riverbend Food Bank as far as filling the shelves and that.
But it really is and has been an educational effort over the last 40 years.
It's just amazing, the history that this program has had.
Yeah.
So student hunger drive is a part of some of these schools curriculums and most of them as well.
We're at a four year high for food insecurity.
So, the work they're doing is just it's phenomenal.
It's our biggest food and fundraiser of the year.
The food that they, you know, bring in on loading day and give us goes about six months out.
For us, depending on, our hunger relief, our hunger agencies needs.
So, you know, I try to explain to them the true impact of what they do, but, you know, the shelves are empty or a little bit, you know, more empt when they show up on loading day and when they leave, you know, once the last school leaves, at the end of the day the shelves end up being full.
And it's a really cool moment to look at and just see the impact that they make.
Because it's so much bigger than they realize.
Yeah, the befor and after really is phenomenal.
You think about once again, and I just kind of want to get back to this, is that the student hunger drive marking its 40th year.
And that takes you back to 1986, when the Quad Cities was really in the depths of the farm equipment, economy and the collapse and the recession during that period of time.
And there was a great need, of course, back then.
But it's it's kind of heartbreakin that the need is still here now.
Although the economy is is having bumps.
And we went through COVID when you also had a great demand.
It just doesn't seem to be a situation that's necessarily improving.
Or is it, it's not.
We had the government shut down during student hunger drive last year.
You know, snap had some changes that took effect this year more locally.
You know, Tyson just closed as well.
So, SNAP is going to continue to change.
So we anticipate our lines, to continue to, to grow, between inflation and all these changes that are happening, you know, families just can't keep up.
And that's what we're here for.
We're here to be a resource in a time of need.
Get these people through, these financially tough times where they're choosing between rent, a mortgage or mortgage or rent, you know, medical and food.
Go to, you know, go to, food pantry and get the food you need so you can pay your bills so you can go to your job so you can continue to have your cycle of life.
Because that's what we're here for.
That's what, you know, we're doing our jobs for.
And especially the students, you know, their, their job is to help us feed people.
So we we just always say, if you know someone that needs it, utilize that resource.
Well, and as you alluded to, SNAP, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program is seeing, from the federal mandates, some real impacts.
What have you immediately seen, because there's more, regulations, so to speak, more, requirements to come.
Yes.
So, as of November 4th, SNA or small retailers who use SNAP as a revenue generating tool will have to stock more items to accept SNAP.
So this is something that w just, food banks cannot replace SNAP.
It was never designed to be replaced.
And in six weeks, SNAP provides our neighbors more meals, than what we can even distribute throughout the entire year.
So while SNAP changes have brought uncertainties and it's really daunting time, we're committed to feeding people healthy and nutritious food, and that's all we can do.
Getting the food from, the donations, like wha the student hunger drive did, to the food bank is a major effort.
Getting it from the food bank to the food pantry is another effort.
And from the food pantry to people who need it is yet another effort.
And each one of these involves such a huge squadron of volunteers.
How difficult is i at the very, very neighborhood level keeping these food pantries, open?
Keeping those places stocked with not only food, but volunteers and peopl who can keep these places open.
Yeah, the volunteers make our world go around.
All these food pantries ar pretty much ran by volunteers.
And we have a lot of volunteers here at the warehouse that do anything from sorting to rotating our foods in the fridge and freezers and picking orders.
So, you know we can't function without them.
Food, pantries also cannot function without them.
But because we don't operate food pantries other than North Park and South Park Mall, it's hard for me to speak on, you know, what their day to daily, and their logistics are like.
But, you know, we try to make everything that we can as easy as possible for all of our pantries that report to us and help, provide them funding where we can, and additional resources as, you know, government changes are happening or, anything else i happening that we are aware of.
But it is just a little bit different because we are two different types of entities.
Yeah, absolutely.
But but you're also dealing lot of times with food pantries that are located in rural areas.
And I think people always think of food insecurity as being kind of a, an urban problem.
But it really is a huge problem in rural communities.
Yes.
So rural areas are often hit harder and we know that they have been recently.
There are things called food desert where it's, a location on a map between two different, pantries or two different cities.
And it's hard to access food there.
So we have mobile that are filled and they go out and they distribute food in these areas.
And then our job is to find what is sustainable for these areas.
What is a long term solution?
Because mobiles are not meant to be a long term solution.
But that is what we do.
We have events called All Hands on Deck where people have been packing boxes.
We partnered with John Deere in the last year, and a couple other, companies, but we have been putting those boxes into our mobiles that have been going out to the rural communities.
We just have a moment left.
Tell me about what year 41 might look like for the student hunger drive, because, I mean, to keep this thing going.
It takes so much work on your part as well as the students.
Yeah.
We're really excited for the 41st year.
You know, what is, it, we're going to probably talk about what is it going to look like in another ten years when we celebrate the 50th?
We've made a lot of really, really strong changes to student hunger drive in the last few years.
So, you know, I don't think things will be too different, but we want to continue to make things easier for the advisors and the, you know, the schools that participate.
So this isn't much of a lift for them because they are doin so much already being a teacher and students already take on so much.
So we just look to make, you know, their lives as easy as possible with everything additional that they do for us.
But, you know, I'm a person that I say I can get big plans, so we'll start planning.
As soon as this is done.
Our thanks to Riverben Food Bank Development Director Avery Owens.
On the air, on the radio, on the web, on your mobile device and streaming on your computer, thanks for taking some time to join us as we talk about the issues on The Cities.
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