[Scott] Coming up on "Energy Switch," we'll look at challenges and potential solutions to bring energy to Sub-Saharan Africa.

- If the energy is there and you can't afford it, we shouldn't be counting that as access.

There is a need to bring out other indicators, issues like reliability, affordability, as well as the quality and quantity of the supply.

- We need Western partners to be thoughtful in the way they address both energy access and climate change, and really speak to what people want in these countries, rather than trying to impose our priorities.

[Scott] Next on "Energy Switch," Energy for Africa.

[Narrator] Funding for "Energy Switch" was provided in part by The University of Texas at Austin, leading research in energy and the environment for a better tomorrow.

What starts here changes the world.

[upbeat music] - I'm Scott Tinker, and I'm an energy scientist.

I work in the field, lead research, speak around the world, write articles, and make films about energy.

This show brings together leading experts on vital topics in energy and climate.

They may have different perspectives, but my goal is to learn, and illuminate, and bring diverging views together towards solutions.

Welcome to the "Energy Switch."

There are 600 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa who do not have modern energy.

So African nations are working to develop their energy resources.

For many, the energy they do have comes largely from hydro, but Africa also has huge volumes of natural gas.

Some funders, concerned about emissions, don't want them to develop it.

Others consider it essential to help lift Africa's people out of poverty.

We'll discuss this and other tensions with Michael Dioha.

He's a senior energy system analyst at Clean Air Task Force and a fellow at the Energy for Growth Hub.

He did his post-doctoral research at Stanford.

Vijaya Ramachandran is director of energy and development for the Breakthrough Institute, and formerly a senior economist at the World Bank, with her PhD in economics from Harvard.

Next on "Energy Switch," we'll talk about how to bring energy to Africa.

Let's just start with a big picture.

I mean, why should our viewers be concerned about what it means in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly, what it means to bring energy there?

- I think viewers should be concerned about the fact that there are 600 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa who do not have access to reliable or cheap electricity.

- Six hundred million.

- Six hundred million.

[Scott] That's almost two United States.

- It's a lot of people.

- Yeah.

- And you know, one in three schools does not have electricity.

Many hospitals suffer multiple power outages a day.

Businesses are not able to get going because of power outages.

So the issue of energy access and reliable electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa is for me, one of the most important issues that we need to tackle from the perspective of ending poverty in Africa.

- Yeah.

- Just as Vijaya pointed out, we have huge people who have energy access deficits.

So in order to satisfy their demand, it means that the energy demand from Africa is going to grow substantially.

So if we're meant to get to net zero, the world has to think about how do we go about providing this energy, right?

And we should also remember that even the materials from the transition, something like copper, cobalt, and so on, these are materials that come from Africa.

Even the workforce.

And when I'm talking about workforce, I mean skilled and well-trained workforce.

Africa have the youngest population in the world, with about 40% of the population below 15 years, okay?

So these are the people that will drive the transition tomorrow.

So in essence, the world cannot achieve net zero without Africa being at the table.

- Right.

So many important thoughts there.

Let's get into it.

Let's kind of think about some of these and start with some big level background here.

We tend to say Africa.

Well, Africa comprises lots of nations, lots of different resources and educational levels and governmental systems and backgrounds.

Let's talk about that broadly.

What's the state of energy in Africa?

You know, a real high level, Michael?

- I would say broadly speaking, Africa's energy system is one that is underdeveloped, but with huge opportunities for growth.

When you look at the electricity sector, I think the biggest challenge is access.

A lot of African countries have huge deficit.

If you see a country like Niger and Burundi, electricity access is really, really low.

However, there have been huge progress.

If you see like a country like Ghana, Kenya and Rwanda, these are countries that are on track to achieve universal energy access by 2030.

So in essence, it's a system that is developing huge opportunity for investment, and I think we are moving on track right now to achieve that.

- Yeah, right.

- There's no question that Africa's going to need a lot more energy, you know, several times what it currently consumes.

I like to say that what the average Ethiopian or Nigerian consumes in electricity in a year, the average American consumes in four or five days.

So really, we will need to see, you know, a substantial amount of investment in the energy sector.

- What do you see the biggest challenge is?

- I think two things, right?

One is that we really want to see international investors invest more in the sector in terms of being able to exploit these resources.

They are doing a lot, but I think they could be doing more.

- Investment.

Different from aid, you mean, right?

- Correct, correct.

- True investment.

- Yes, true investment in the sense of financing, you know, providing co-financing for these kinds of projects.

It needs to be tailored to what African governments want and what the needs are of the citizens of the countries where these deposits are held.

But I see some disconnect between what people are saying they want and what the international organizations think Africa should be doing.

- Yes.

- You know, there is the sense, I think, amongst particularly the richer countries in the west that Africa should develop using wind and solar alone.

- Even though we didn't do it.

[laughs] - Yes, we didn't do it and we're not still doing it.

So for me, there's an enormous tension.

There's a lot of hypocrisy there, and I think that attitude has to end.

- Interesting.

So that's kind of under this big investment umbrella, but how it's structured.

And your second area was?

- It has been difficult to set up these transmission and distribution systems in some countries, because it is difficult to do cost recovery, and there have been issues around kind of maintaining the transmission lines and making the power companies profitable.

I think that is a set of issues largely sort of in the domestic sphere, particularly for the major African economies that they are trying to tackle.

- Interesting.

That's important.

Michael, how do you see it?

- Well, I think the question we are not asking ourselves is why is it that people do not have access to energy?

So when you look at the projects that have been designed within the last 10 decades, we need to focus more on projects that can provide productive sectors.

That is where people go to get income that they can use to provide energy for themselves.

As I always say, I've never seen any rich person that don't have access to energy.

[Scott] Correct.

- To a large extent, energy access is an income access problem.

So we also need to start thinking about ways to focus more on that and stop getting distracted by things that are not really solving the problem.

So I think the way we design projects need to change and we need to put emphasis where emphasis need to be on.

And of course we need to keep on working on the regulatory environment as well.

You know, when different governments come into power, their agenda can also change.

So even the policies that we have, we need to back them by an act of parliament, or depending on the system of government, but it has to be a law.

And this is the kind of things that encourage investors to come into your country and invest.

- Yeah, it's interesting you mentioned energy access, but then also income access.

And it's kind of a chicken and egg, right?

- Exactly.

- These things have to work well together.

- Yeah, like we saw during the pandemic, right?

About 10 million people who have gained access couldn't pay their bills, and they're going back to where they were previously.

- Yeah.

- And this is because they are poor.

Our understanding of this binary way of calculating it that once you have connection to your house is actually a problem, because affordability is also a big issue.

If the energy is there and you can't afford it, we shouldn't be counting that as access.

[Scott] Yes.

- And this also means that we need to understand that there's a need to bring out other indicators to which we use to count energy access, such as issues like reliability, affordability.

- Right.

[Michael] As well as the quality and quantity of the supply.

[Scott] You mentioned regulatory.

I speak a lot around the world, and many times I've had young African students come up to me and say, "I love what you're saying, but there's so much corruption.

The money doesn't go where it's needed."

Speak to that.

How does that play out in a regulatory system?

- A lot of efforts have been underway to address that, but it seems that when the more you look, the less you see.

That's how corruption is.

For instance, we have had a scenario where a task force was established to investigate corruption in the power sector.

Then later, another task force established to investigate that task force that was investigating corruption because even task force became corrupt, right?

Yeah, so I don't have the full solution.

- Right.

- But we can start looking at other sectors, see how corruption is being addressed.

The Energy for Growth Hub recently came up with something they called power purchase agreement index.

You know, how to show transparency on how poor purchase disagreements have been done, but corruption is difficult.

When you fight corruption, it fights back.

- Yes.

Any other thoughts?

- I think it's a, you know, issue where we can learn maybe from other countries, the transparency around contracts.

I think that could help a lot in terms of making these companies more profitable.

But I agree with Michael, these are a tough set of challenges.

[Scott] Yes.

The energy resources that exist in Africa today, big continent, what are some of them?

- Some countries are still majority gas fired.

So Nigeria is a very large share of gas fired power, for example.

But you know, Kenya has a lot of hydro resources.

It has a lot of geothermal resources.

There are countries in the north coast of Africa that are relying increasingly on wind, and there's solar everywhere because it is, you know, so abundantly available.

I think the question is, how do we develop these resources so that they're able to provide electricity at scale and to provide base-load power, you know, power on a continuous basis.

[Scott] Right.

- And I think there, you know, we do need to be thinking about any renewable resources having a fossil backup.

And then there's some types of industrial activities for which natural gas is essential, and Africa sits on 600 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves.

A third of that is in Nigeria.

And you know, my view is that we will have to use some of those reserves to make fertilizer, for fuels, for industrial heating.

So I think, you know, for the foreseeable future, we need a mix of fuels, and I think we need to think about what makes sense for each country in terms of their endowments.

- What about nuclear?

- If you look at a country like Niger, they have huge abundance of uranium, which we need for nuclear.

In fact, Niger uranium is enough to power the entire West Africa.

Okay, but it has not been exploited.

Rather, we see countries like France, taking it to France to generate electricity there.

However, the challenge with nuclear is that the lead time is actually long.

And even though we know that the cost per kilowatt is lower, Africa don't have that kind of money at the moment.

- Right.

- So that is why people are looking into things like the small modular reactors today, looking into things like even micro reactors that we are expecting in the next decade-- - Right.

- To come on board, yeah.

- Yeah, it's interesting.

It's almost like a distributed source in some ways.

- Yeah.

- Instead of having to have the big power grids built.

[Michael] Exactly.

- We can put them where they're needed.

- So for me, I believe that if we continue with the trajectory that we are going, as well as support from abroad, nuclear will be one of the key ways to address Africa's energy challenge.

- Right.

You're both describing a diverse portfolio.

Some might listen to that and say, well yeah, but 600 million people coming out of poverty and starting to use fossil fuels partly, how many CO2 emissions, what percentage of CO2 emissions is Africa responsible for today?

- I think Africa now it's about four percent of global emissions.

- The whole continent?

- The whole continent.

Emissions will start to rise as power consumption increases, but it will not rise that much.

[Scott] Yeah.

- So I don't think there's anything to fear here.

I think there's a lot of scaremongering around poorer countries becoming richer and emitting more.

I really don't see the need to fear that.

- Interesting.

- Firstly, I want to even dispel the narrative that we should stop saying, "If Africa developed the way we developed."

Because it's not even existing.

Africa is not developing that way.

So we should throw away that question.

In fact, about 22 countries in Africa outta the 54, their main source of energy is renewables.

- Solar, wind, hydro?

- Mainly hydro.

Then let us look at outlook, the numbers into the future, right?

Nigeria will be emitting about 0.5 tons per person by 2050.

If we look at the U.S. emission today, it's about 14 tons per capita, metric tons per capita, okay?

So it's about 28 times more than what Africa is emitting.

So my question is the 96% of people who are emitting, that's where emphasis should be on.

- Right.

- And not Africa.

- Yeah, excellent.

You've both mentioned different energies.

I don't think I've heard either one of you say the word coal, but you've said natural gas a lot.

- You know, most African governments do not want to go down the path of investing in coal.

- Right.

- The issue of coal is South Africa, which has substantial coal reserves.

South Africa is in process of transitioning out of coal.

It's a difficult, long process, but they are doing it, and they are receiving some support for it.

On developing the natural gas reserves, this is, you know, in my view, very much a transition fuel.

- Right.

- But one that's very critical at this point in time.

- Right.

- If we can come up with low-cost, you know, scalable solutions for storage of renewables, we'll see more substitutes.

- Right.

- If we can make greener sources of fertilizer cheaper, and, you know, we're able to manufacture those at scale, we can substitute out of using natural gas for fertilizer.

[Scott] Yeah.

- But until we have those technologies, we cannot tell Africans that they cannot use fertilizer.

- Yeah.

- Because it's, you know, it's too high emitting.

I find that very immoral.

- Let's just kinda think about the funding organizations again.

What do they do currently, and what are the results of those investments?

- So there's a whole range of multilateral development banks headed by the World Bank, which is the largest provider of financing to developing countries.

You know, because of this emphasis on tackling climate change, there has been a lot of pressure on these institutions to not finance any type of fossil fuels.

You know, it has meant, I think, for countries trying to build out these resources, it has meant significant limits on what these institutions are willing to provide.

[Scott] Right.

- I think firstly we need to understand that Africa have this image out there that it is a risky place to invest in.

So you see that even the development finance that we can be able to access to access it at very high interest rates.

If you look at Ghana, for instance, Ghana have about 80% debt-to-GDP ratio, but Ghana will be accessing loans at about 10%, 12%, right?

Where if you look at a country like Greece, Greece, they have about 200 debt-to-GDP ratio.

Greece has the access at two, three percent.

So really what, who is, where is the risk, you know?

So they should come down to Africa and see what's going on.

It's a profitable place.

Then secondly, if you say that major goal is climate mitigation, right?

Why not also fund gas with CCS?

[Scott] Right.

- Africa can do, we have projects ongoing now here to retrofit even the existing gas plants with CCS.

Our goal is not, we just want to emit, we want to use gas.

No, Africans are also concerned about climate change.

We are the ones impacted the most.

So we're also trying to clear our own path, right?

If we can be able to internally mobilize finance, right, both from public, private sector and even the African development bank.

We won't have it all, definitely.

The investment needs are really, really high.

But at least that will give us some leverage to be able to make investments in some technologies that are of our own choice, and we need to understand the electricities both generation, transmission, distribution, and end use.

[Scott] Right.

- So, so much of focus has been around the supply side.

We don't look at what is going on in the other areas, right?

So that undermines Africa's energy needs.

When we undermine that, it also limits the kind of investments that goes into the sector.

- Yes, yeah.

What's the state of electricity distribution companies in Africa, or the discoms, as they're called?

- Right now, they are highly indebted.

If you look at something like the distribution losses in some countries up to 15%.

- So for part of that 15% loss is energy theft?

- Energy theft is part of it.

So we have the technical losses as well as the market loss.

- Okay, yeah.

- So how do we go about addressing the problem?

Firstly, that we need to bring them out of that debt.

And this can be done in different ways.

You can do maybe debt refinancing, debt restructuring.

Then, we talk about electricity being stolen.

It is people who are poor that steal electricity.

- I mean, if you're not energy poor, you don't have to steal it.

- Have to steal it, yeah.

[laughs] - It's pretty logical there.

Transportation is being electrified in places in the world.

Is there a role for EVs in Africa, and how does that play out?

- In the transportation sector, the problem is that we don't have good infrastructure, and the system currently is dominated by fossil fuels.

You know, more than 99% of the transportation is dominated by diesel and gasoline.

However, recently there is huge growth in electrification of the transportation sector.

So we'll see countries like Nigeria deploying electric buses.

There is also significant work going on in places like Kenya.

There is huge deployment of electric two-wheelers and so on.

Then that will also build the basis for the infrastructure for the four-wheelers.

One of the things we still fight a lot on the continent is air pollution.

- Sure.

- So governments are also looking towards EV in the aspect of air pollution.

So it's not driven just by decarbonization, but more around socioeconomic and technical challenges.

- We often hear about the negative impacts of energy on the environment.

There are positive impacts of energy on the environment too.

What stands in the way, then, of, is it purely understanding, or are there other forces at play here on, particularly as we're talking about electricity?

- We take electricity for granted.

We take 24/7 internet for granted.

We're able to charge our phones whenever we want.

I think it's very hard in that context to then get people to think about what it's like to have six or seven hours a day without power.

We need to work harder to convince people, I think, that energy access is a real problem, that it's a devastating problem when you don't have enough energy in hospitals or in schools, and that we need to be thinking about that simultaneously as we address climate change.

- What do you think on this, Michael?

- I think we focus so much on mitigation and adaptation.

- Yeah.

- So when we're talking of climate change, for the rich countries, you have enough energy to adapt, but Africa don't have that energy.

[Scott] That's right.

- Really, we need to understand the basics properly and not just carry the way by the apocalyptic narrative that Africa might, you know, blow up our climate plans.

- Yeah.

As we kinda recap here, energy access and affordability, just your thoughts on the key steps needed to do that.

- We need Western partners to be thoughtful in the way they address both energy access and climate change.

We need to encourage whatever efforts are happening, you know, around the world to provide energy access, understanding kind of what the goals and what the constraints are facing each country, and really speak to what people want in these countries rather than trying to impose our priorities.

I don't see Africa's development goals as negotiable.

Those are not negotiable.

- Yeah, I love that.

Your thoughts on that, Michael?

- So I think we need to start action immediately.

That is what is important, and forget about all these side distractions that are disturbing us.

We already have policy frameworks on ground in these countries.

What we need to do is to tighten up those policies and back them with an act of parliament to encourage investors to come into the country.

But rather I prefer we do it effectively.

- Yes.

- Than doing it myopically the way we are doing it today.

That has not led us to anywhere.

- Right.

And we have time, you feel, to move through this in a sensible way?

- The Western countries timelines shouldn't be the timelines for Africa.

You can achieve net zero here by 2050.

Africa can achieve by 2080 or 2070.

So don't just constrain Africa to your 2050.

And let us also remember that climate is a global thing.

It's not Africa or America's problem.

So we need collective action, shared goal, but different responsibilities towards achieving that shared goal.

- Interesting.

One world, one atmosphere.

Any final thoughts?

Anything we've missed?

- I mean, you know, as I said, I do feel that these development priorities are very, very important, and we need to remember that, you know, having a prosperous Africa is good for everyone.

It's good for the rich countries as well.

There's more trading opportunities.

There's, you know, more opportunities to exchange information and to learn from each other.

So it's important, I think, to keep those sort of global goals in mind and not get kind of sidetracked by a single focus on any one particular problem.

- Yeah.

Final thoughts, Michael?

Something we've missed that you'd like to communicate?

- Yeah, I think my final thoughts are three.

Firstly is that we need to stop looking at Africa as this one big village with all these people in it.

There are 54 countries in Africa that are different.

So therefore, solutions that we are tailoring for the region need to be unique for all these countries.

Then secondly, when it comes to issues relating to energy access, we need to put greater emphasis on productive use of energy.

Understanding that energy is a means to an end and not an end in itself.

And then lastly is on the issue of balancing climate and developmental energy goals in Africa.

We need to be realistic and understand that when the chips are down, energy security takes a priority.

And when I'm talking of energy security, in this context, I'm talking about continuous supply of affordable and reliable energy.

And how are these policies going to be done?

I would describe it as multi-objective policies.

Affordability, reliability, and sustainability.

So when we design policies in this multi-objective, we are balancing these things that are all of important.

We can be able to achieve these development and climate goals on the continent instead of just focusing on one.

- Right.

- That is not leading us to anywhere that is meaningful.

- Yeah.

So well said.

Scott Tinker with a fascinating conversation about energy in Africa.

This is "Energy Switch."

African nations are working to bring electricity to their people.

For this, many are looking to hydro, starting to grow solar, wind, and geothermal, and struggling to expand electricity transmission and distribution networks.

But Africa could have 600 trillion cubic feet of natural gas resources, or more.

That gas could provide power generation to balance solar and wind and grow industry.

Gas could also produce fertilizer domestically, making agriculture more productive and affordable.

Our guests believe that investors and international development banks and foundations, mostly from wealthy nations, should prioritize Africa's energy needs over climate targets, since a diverse energy portfolio in Africa would add little to global emissions.

This could include broader funding for with demands for transparency in regulation and contracts to reduce corruption.

This approach could help raise income levels for all Africans and increase environmental investment.

♪ ♪ ♪ [Narrator] Funding for "Energy Switch" was provided in part by The University of Texas at Austin, leading research in energy and the environment for a better tomorrow.

What starts here changes the world.