(gentle ethereal music) - Welcome to "Capitol View" where we discuss the latest in state government and politics.

I'm Hannah Misel with NPR, Illinois.

Joining us this week is Sarah Mansur of Capital News, Illinois.

Thanks for being here, Sarah.

- Thanks for having me.

- And also here is Peter Hancock also of Capital News, Illinois.

Glad you're here, Peter.

- Hi Hannah, how are you?

- Good, thanks.

Let's go down to it.

We have a tiny glimmer of normalcy this week when the House met for a one day session in order to adopt new rules.

This is something that would barely pass by with much notice in, you know every other year when they do this every two years, when a new General Assembly is seated.

However, it's made much more significant this year because for the first time in, you know, almost four decades someone not named Mike Madigan is now the speaker of the House.

And of course the speaker was known for his leadership style, you know like very quietly powerful controlled things from his office and that, you know the House rules were something that empowered him to do so.

And so it's not just Republicans, but also honestly a lot of rank and file Democrats who kind of felt like, "Okay, this is the time that we should change some of these governing rules so that it's, you know power doesn't consolidate to one person."

And so it's been almost a month since a new speaker Chris Welch was elected and they waited almost a month to deliberate on these new House rules.

You know, I think some of the highlights-- there's a 10 year term on leadership.

And so the House speaker and the House minority leader would be limited to 10 years instead of, of course, Mike Madigan was speaker for 36 and other things like bills have to be assigned to substantive committees every two years in the first odd number year of a two year General Assembly.

And gosh, there are other things that, you know, mandate but you know, basically the Republican argument was, "Well ,this doesn't go far enough.

These are basically the same rules that navigate just with a little bit of panache and the illusion of more participation."

And then the Democrats fired right back.

Well, actually a lot of these come from 90s rules under House speaker Lee Daniels when he was a speaker for two years, when Republicans took over.

And so they shot, you know, they went back and forth but you know, I understand that to the general public this is not the most possibly interesting thing but it does govern a lot of, you know what actually comes out of the, the legislature, right?

Peter, I mean, this is the now the second Capitol that you've covered.

And so, these things matter a lot.

- Yeah, it is the second Capitol and they do matter.

And I think what we saw this week was the Illinois House just very ever so slowly and gradually inching away from the Madigan era.

Under Madigan, power was consolidated in the speaker's office.

And I think now you're going to see it and get a little more diffused.

Individual committee chairman will have more authority.

And also there's this thing called the Rules Committee.

When a bill is introduced it first goes to the Rules Committee.

That committee decides if it's going to be referred to another substantive committee and if so, which one.

And I think that was the source of a lot of frustration not just for Republicans but also for rank and file Democrats.

A lot of people referred to that committee as the place where good legislation went to die because one person could just sit on it and not do anything with it.

Well now, at least in odd numbered years all House bills have to get referred to a committee if they're filed in a timely manner.

There's still some loopholes.

Individual committee chairmen are still going to wield a lot of power, but there are like, what 25 committee chairs or however many as opposed to just one speaker wielding all the power.

And as for Republicans, you know I spoke with the minority leader, Jim Durkin on Wednesday there is a recognition within the Republican ranks that if they want to wield more influence in the House they've simply gotta win more elections.

They've gotta have more seats because right now they're on a super minority and you know you can write all the rules you want, but you know a lot of them were frustrated because there's no guarantee that their bills are going to be heard.

And you heard Democratic leader Greg Harris say nobody gets a guarantee, not even the Democrats.

You know, there are only so many legislative days in a session.

They're often thousands of bills getting introduced and there's not enough time to have a hearing on each one.

- Sure.

And I wanna get back to a discussion on what this will mean for Republicans and, you know just in general, but first Sarah it's, you know, a lot of other legislatures have figured this out much earlier.

A lot of legislature has have been meeting in person or, you know, doing virtual things.

The Senate last spring adopted new rules so they could, or I guess ended their existing rules so they could meet virtually.

But then the House didn't, you know in the last few days of session, in the waning hours of session, actually.

There was, you know movement to try to get virtual hearings but there were things that folks considered poison pills in there.

And so ultimately we did not get that done and so the House had kind of hamstrung themselves on that.

And so these new rules allow for virtual hearings, which means that, you know finally committees can do their work.

I mean, there's just so much pent up.

I think frustration from lawmakers on, you know the governor's office has led kind of unilaterally doing a lot of things via executive order during the pandemic.

So Sarah, what is, you know what are the things that lawmakers are most frustrated by and I guess most eager to get into with virtual hearings?

Yeah.

There is so much that they have to do.

And like you said, they were not able to meet at least in the House, remotely.

And so it was just the marathon six day lame duck session.

And we saw how that turned out with really important decisions being made at like three or four in the morning.

So I think some of the, well, one of the biggest things is obviously the budget and we're going to see what the governor is proposing next week but I know that there are still discussions about where to cut spending and agencies.

And the governor put out a really, really brief plan this week proposing a $900 million cuts in or that would cut spending by closing corporate loopholes.

And so that might also require legislative action.

And then obviously the impacts that Illinoisans have felt from the coronavirus, whether that be in the employment area or healthcare workers, healthcare workers trying to access vaccine or members of the older population.

So those are all things that I think the legislature is working to address and will be sort of the top of their concerns if they meet remotely or choose to meet in person if most of them receive the vaccine.

- Sure.

We're gonna get to budget in vaccines in a bit.

But I do wanna return to, you know thinking about how, you know on the floor Republicans got their chance to say, you know, "Rail against the majority party once again."

And the majority Party, the Democrats shot back.

Well again, "Well, if you wanted more power win more elections."

And, "This is clearly the mandate that we get from voters."

Of course, that also has to do with the maps that are made, but I digress there.

But the Democrats' point was, well, you know, "This is the mandate from voters.

Voters want these progressive things that we've done in our doing.

So take it."

But you know, I think that's like a broader discussion of that's going on right now within the Republican Party themselves is what do they want to be?

And we've seen, you know, leaders like Adam Kinzinger.

He went so far as to form his own pack and he's doing a lot of TV and other interviews and trying to get on the map.

I mean, I think a lot of folks suspect that he's gonna run for either Senate or even governor in '22.

But for now, you know, his line is that he wants to rid the Republican Party of, you know Trump supporters who have taken the party to such extremes.

So, you know, to that end on Saturday, Peter, the Republican Party they elected a new leader after Tim Schneider who was governor, former governor Rauner's kind of handpicked party chair since 2014 so almost seven years decided to step down.

So in the end, the party went with kind of a moderate Springfield businessmen, Don Tracy, he's been around state government before kind of a known entity but he, you know, it wasn't a landslide for him.

He very narrowly won against Mark Shaw who was a Lake County, Gosh, I think he was prosecutor.

I'm sorry if I got that wrong.

Yeah, but-- - Yeah.

The Lake County Republican Party.

Yeah.

- Yeah and you know, he's much, much more conservative.

And he was initially, you know almost-- he almost tried to win in that job three years ago after Republicans, conservatives were so angry at Bruce Rauner for assigning an abortion bill and then Jeannie Ives who was at the time a state rep and then most recently tried to run and lost for Congress up in the suburbs anyway.

So Mark Shaw now on Saturday lost again, narrowly but what does it say about the current state of the Republican Party that you had that big constituency pushing Mark Shaw and at the same time you got a more moderate classic Republican actually elected and then Adam Kinzinger is off trying to rid the Republican Party of far-right elements?

What's going on?

- Well, I thought it was interesting that the Republican Central Committee issued a statement a couple of days before the chairmanship election where they're basically acknowledging that there is a rift in the party that needs to be healed.

You have Mark Shaw who is very much in the Donald Trump camp and Adam Kinzinger who was one of 10 Republicans in the US House to vote in favor of an article of impeachment against now former president Trump.

And there's a lot of resentment against Kinzinger for that.

And so they're acknowledging that that needs to be healed.

And I think one of the other things that you're seeing is not just in Illinois, but nationally but even here in Illinois, the Republican Party is getting to be very much a downstate small town, rural area kind of party.

Democrats haven't had the city of Chicago for a long time but Republicans had been very strong in the upper middle-class colored counties.

That has now changed.

The suburbs are changing not just in Illinois, but nationally.

So there's been kind of a generational change there and suburban areas are becoming more democratic.

And so I think the Republicans have to figure out, you know how to brand themselves and how to adapt to that reality so they can win more elections in those areas.

Otherwise it, you know, I thought it was interesting that they picked a Springfield attorney/businessman as their a new chairman.

He's the first downstate chairman the Republicans have had since the late 1980s.

And I think it does kind of reflect the fact that the Republican Party, the center of it their strength is downstate in Central and Southern Illinois parts of maybe Northwest of Illinois.

And that's something they're gonna have to contend with.

I even asked Jim Durkin about this during my interview on Wednesday.

He says he thinks they still have strength in the suburbs.

Interestingly, Jim Durkin was twice the Illinois campaign chairman, state chairman for John McCain's presidential campaign John McCain being most decidedly not of the Trump wing.

And I think Jim Durkin is not of the Trump wing.

But he also says that whatever rift is there within the state party and maybe within the congressional delegation he insists it's not there within the Republican caucus of the Illinois House.

He thinks they're pretty unified on their priorities which mainly center around the budget right now.

- Yeah.

Yeah.

And-- Oh, go ahead, Sarah.

- Sorry.

I just want to make a quick point.

You know when we were talking earlier and you were saying that Adam Kinzinger is kind of becoming a media darling and I just wanted to make point that if he, you know there is talk about him running statewide and so it with what Peter is saying about how the power of the Republican Party is being kind of centralized down state I think it would be a challenge for any non Trump Republican to win a statewide election in Illinois just because there is that really kind of far right-ish sentiment that's developing in sort of like the Senator Darren Bailey's types.

And so I just wonder how he will approach that challenge if he does decide to run statewide.

- Me too.

And you know, some of this even though it's a statewide position, I think some of it is gonna have to do with the maps that come out of, you know, negotiations and you know, possible conflict later this year because that also dictates what kinds of candidates might come out and, you know might energize the party or, you know, raise money or all of those things.

But let's, we have about 10 minutes left.

Let's discuss first budget and then we'll get to a discussion of vaccine rollout.

So next week on Wednesday the governor will give his annual budget address.

Of course, like all things in COVID, not normal It'll be virtual instead of, you know having every single person in the General Assembly in the House chamber kind of very, very close together, can't have that.

So, you know, the governor's office gave a very brief preview of their budget plan this week.

Hopefully we'll know a lot more, you know after the address and after a budget briefing but like he got his message across.

Well, you know, I'm not gonna be the one who proposes a tax increase.

Of course, his graduate income tax plan failed at the ballot box in November.

And that's of course put the state budget in even more dire straits than we had been because he thought, he had proposed that it would bring in $3.4 billion annually.

And now we don't have that but he also said, "Oh, well, I'll also, we're gonna close those corporate tax loopholes," like Sarah said earlier, "and we're gonna and also you know, the budget deficit isn't 5.5 billion.

It's actually just 3 billion.

We'll be okay."

But I mean, that's a lot to take on.

And there's a lot of kind of button tricks that his office of management budget can do to balance the budget on paper.

So Sarah, you know what-- The $900 million in corporate tax loopholes that he wants to close one person's quote unquote "corporate tax loophole" is another person's tax incentive to keep their business in Illinois.

So, I mean, what's the likelihood of that.

What's the likelihood of, you know what the governor proposes actually coming to fruition?

- Yeah.

I think that really remains an open question.

He obviously is in a tight spot not having the graduate income tax pass, like you said and now his administration is trying to find ways to balance the budget without having a headline that says this the governor wants to raise taxes.

But I think with the $900 million corporate tax loophole being closed, I think that the devil might be in the details because like you said for some that could essentially, for some businesses that could essentially amount to a tax increase if they're not able to write off certain deductions that they had been counting on.

And of course tomorrow I believe tax filers can start to submit their tax returns.

So this is something that businesses really need to know.

And I think it's going to become an issue certainly for the Republicans who always sort of decry these last minute changes.

And then I think the other main issue that will probably come up next Wednesday is education funding which it appears will remain flat for another year.

And we know that that's always a really key issue for so many lawmakers because they believe that all of their school districts need to be funded at the adequate levels.

So it will be very interesting and will, may not be until the end of May that we actually see how the budget is going to be balanced.

- Well, that's true every year, but, you know it's especially precarious this year.

You know, I think that that education funding that you brought up, the 2017 school funding overhaul which was, you know, years in the making a true bipartisan negotiation we don't see too many of those these days it dictated that the state was going to provide 350 million additional year over year.

And this will be then the second year that we have not been able to meet that goal due to COVID.

But although lots of folks are gonna, you know there's been new research out in the last few weeks saying, it's not just COVID, obviously.

We have a structural deficit and by the way our economy is doing better than we expected even despite COVID.

But that'll be very interesting.

I suspect we'll have a much more robust budget conversation next week on the program but I do wanna get to the vaccine rollout.

You know, this is the thing that I think occupies a lot of Illinoisans' minds especially if they have-- themselves are trying to get into appointment or are trying to help an older loved one or an essential worker in their lives and it's just been very, very frustrating.

And you know, it's also made the governor have to go on the defense yet again, you know defending the way that his administration is rolling out vaccines.

So Peter, this week the governor announced that he was going to expand this so-called Phase 1B to include folks who are, you know, sick with underlying conditions things like COPD, people who have had cancer before immunocompromised due to organ, you know lots of folks, Oh, and pregnant women, diabetes.

So that's one change and of course last week the governor also announced that lawmakers who are a much, much, much smaller group will also be able to get vaccinated so eventually they can go back to Springfield in person.

But Peter, I mean, with the governor having to constantly go on defense saying, "Oh, well look, the vaccine rollout is working.

Yes, it was slow, blah, blah, blah," I mean, how does that affect lawmakers confidence in him and of course, voters at large?

How does that affect their confidence in the governor?

- Oh, I don't know.

I think the vaccine rollout in Illinois has gone as well as could be expected.

It's all dependent on how much vaccine there is to roll out.

You can't administer vaccines but they haven't been delivered yet.

And so I think they've done a pretty good job.

I haven't heard of a lot of, I haven't heard stories of a lot of vaccines going to waste.

Whatever they get, they are administering.

And I think it just points to the fact that there was no national strategy on this coming in.

Everything, they were laser focused on developing a vaccine but how you get that out to 330 million people across the country, this is really the most logistically challenging task in the history of public health in the United States.

Excuse me.

It's just gonna be very tough.

And so I think there's only so much responsibility you can pin on the governor and Dr. ZK 'cause they can only work with what they have.

- Sure.

And you know, the federal government in recent weeks said, "Okay, we're gonna guarantee that there's more vaccine coming to you so you can plan not just one week out but three weeks out," but still just very difficult for folks to get appointments.

The state could, I mean, theoretically could have set up some sort of website but we've seen how well those kinds of websites when it came to the Department of Employment Security and getting a contractor and things just not working well.

So it's, Illinois just, it has these 97 health departments and try to arrange things among them, it's very difficult.

But we are out of time.

My thanks to "Capitol View" guest, Sarah Mansur and Peter Hancock of Capitol News, Illinois.

Thank you for watching.

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