(dramatic music) - Welcome to "CapitolView," where we discuss the latest in state government and politics.

I'm Hannah Meisel with NPR Illinois.

Joining us this week is Kent Redfield, Professor Emeritus at the University of Illinois, Springfield.

Thanks for being here, Kent.

- Good to be here.

- And also here is Dave Dahl of radio station WTAX in Springfield.

Glad you're here, Dave.

- Thanks for having me.

- President Joe Biden paid a visit to Northern Illinois this week to promote his so-called American Families Plan, which still hasn't advanced through Congress.

The plan is, you know, 1/3 of the president's whole Build Back Better campaign, the first being the American Rescue Plan that passed earlier this spring, the second being his infrastructure package he calls the American Jobs Plan, which also hasn't gone anywhere.

You know, Kent, this has a lot of new spending.

It has 1 trillion in new spending, and then 800 billion in tax credits over 10 years, spending on childcare, universal pre-K, paid family and medical leave, community college, making that free, you know, health insurance subsidies, and a couple, you know, other kind of, I guess you would call them like social welfare programs to help lift people out of poverty, and indeed it does promise to lift about 12 million, at least, Americans out of poverty.

Kent, where, you know, where do you see this going?

This is quite a big ask from the president and Democrats in Washington.

- Well, ideally they want to get a bipartisan package, which means some Republican votes for the infrastructure part of it.

And then, they're gonna look to do reconciliation, which is part of the budget process that allowed them to pass the first part of Biden's stimulus with just Democratic votes, with no Republican votes at all, and avoid the filibuster.

And so, you know, they're trying to do infrastructure through the regular order, and then hopefully go back and pick up all of the additional things they could not get any buy-in from Republicans on, the infrastructure part of it, and do that through reconciliation.

So we're not there yet on either one of those.

And so, there's certainly, you know, the mechanics of getting it, and the politics of getting it through Washington, D.C. What the president was doing in McHenry County, Crystal Lake, was part of the, you know, selling not just infrastructure, but the whole American Families Plan to suburban voters.

The real battleground in terms of, you know, the midterm elections is how are things gonna go in the suburbs, in terms of swing votes, and new districts, and those sorts of things.

And so, you know, he wanted the attention out there.

That wasn't the way that the event played if you were reading the "Chicago Tribune," or the "Chicago Sun-Times."

They had a very different take on it.

It was all about violence.

But you know, this is Biden selling himself as the bipartisan, you know, building up America part of the way that he wants to present himself.

But politics is always messy, and you know, people are going to view things through their own prism.

- And politically, it's interesting to note, this was an area that Trump won, and you know, there are no coincidences.

I don't think that was an accident that he showed up in McHenry County.

- Sure, McHenry County, where, yes, Trump did win, but also Lauren Underwood, you know, she was a freshman, she won in 2018 beating Randy Hultgren, and she won a second term in 2020.

So you know, a very interesting area, very representative of the exurban areas, the suburban sprawl, whatever you wanna call it, where it's kind of the new battleground, because if the suburbs do indeed stay blue, as you know we've seen them turn over the last several years, it's these exurban places that are the new battleground, and maybe the only battleground, because cities and suburbs, for the most part get, are gonna be blue, rural parts are gonna be red, and then it's these new developments.

Kent, what do you think of, I mean, are there really any battlegrounds left that we haven't tapped yet?

- Well, no.

Were there, you know, the areas in the suburbs are districts that were drawn 10 years ago to be safe, Republican-leaning districts.

And that tells you a lot about the shifts in political demographics in the state, the effect of the migration in the early part of the immigration, early part of the decade, and you know, the anti-Trump factor among suburban voters, particularly suburban women.

But you know, a lot of Republican candidates in the suburbs ran ahead of the president, you know, and so, two years ago, and so, the question now is, you know, what's the reality?

Are there really, are there swing areas out there?

And if so, what do you need to be talking about, the scary crime in Chicago, or the need for childcare, and building families, and you know, all of the types of things that the president wants to focus on in terms of the family first?

So it's, you know, that's the, in Illinois, we may have, you know, the Democrats would love to keep a seat downstate.

They just don't know whether they need to run what was Cheri Bustos' district down in Metro East, or they need to run the Metro East into what used to be Davis' district and stuff.

So those are gonna be the issues, holding those two suburban seats for the Democrats, and trying to figure out how to get a Democratic hold, a Democrat downstate.

And so, yeah, I mean, it's, you know, from the average citizen, it really matters about what we are going to do in terms of addressing serious policy problems.

But it says, as Dave says, it's no accident in terms of how they're trying to frame this, and 'cause nationally, that's what it got that, you know, you got stories about the president out, trying to sell his programs in competitive areas, and show that he's bipartisan, and you wouldn't think that, you know, the national media, and what you saw in the two Chicago papers, you know, it wasn't clear they were covering the same event.

- Professor, I've gotta wonder as you talk about carving up these districts, have the Democrats in Illinois topped out?

Can they do any better than they are at this moment?

- And I don't, I think given that part of this was fueled by immigration of Asians from Pakistan, India, and Hispanic immigration, which I think the census is gonna show has slowed down tremendously.

And so, you know, this is gonna be, you can't just say our numbers are getting bigger, and therefore we can just, you know, we'll just rest on this, it'll just keep growing.

I think you're gonna get a static situation, where you're actually gonna have to sell, you know, win elections on the basis of candidates and policy.

I think that Democrats would be hard pressed to really make much, you know, even though they're drawing the maps that, you know, I'm not sure how successful they're gonna be in expanding what they've got.

- Sure, and you just mentioned immigration from, you know, for example, Pakistan.

You know, Asians and South Asians, that is a political group that has been historically ignored.

And you know, the two parties, if they're smart, you know, I've done several stories about this over the years, would try to grab those groups' attention.

Of course, you can never, ever view a group, especially racial group, as just one voting bloc.

You know, dramatically different experiences depending on, you know, where in the world they come from, but still just as a whole, an untapped voting group, and I thought it was interesting that those folks this spring, they thought, you know, the community advocacy groups that advocated for them when it came to redistricting this spring, legislative redistricting, 'cause of course, we won't until this fall see congressional maps, but they really wanted to be able to take advantage of that for the first time.

But those groups like Asian Americans Advancing Justice, you know, they felt ignored.

They felt, you know, like it was a disappointing outcome for them.

But Dave, you know, just one more thing on this, on Biden's visit and the American Families Plan.

You know, these are things, like I mentioned childcare, universal pre-K, making community college free, these are things that Governor Pritzker has said over and over that he wants, too.

You know, if this is successful, even if it's pared down, do you believe that this helps the governor going into a midterm election?

Or do you think that it adds fuel to the fire from Republicans who, you know, are going to make big federal spending the boogeyman again?

- Yes and yes.

I think both of those points, Hannah, can live in the same neighborhood.

I think right now the numbers favor the Democrats.

You can say, "Oh, I agree with everything "Darren Bailey says."

Well, there just aren't enough people in Illinois that are on the right there, and when I say the right, I don't mean right-center, I mean the right.

And you know, I think if a Republican wins the governorship in Illinois, well, they're gonna have to be closer to the center, because there just aren't enough available farther right conservatives in the state.

So I think you're right on both counts.

I think it's gonna help the governor, and it's gonna help the Republicans' argument.

It's gonna help the governor, because, you know, right now I don't think there are enough people in Illinois to agree with, you know, that other point that they dislike the federal government federal programs.

I mean, this isn't Missouri.

- That is true.

But I am actually going to talk about Missouri.

You know, just when we think COVID's winding down, we get a more, more, and more contagious variant.

Wanna remind viewers that the more contagious UK variant that we dealt with a lot of the winter and spring, that was about 50% more contagious than the original SARS-CoV-2 virus.

This so-called Delta variant though that is rapidly spreading, and is now spreading around Illinois is 50% more contagious than that, and Missouri has the highest per capita rate of new cases in the nation, and you know, the hospitalizations have jumped dramatically.

And on the, you know, in the regions that border Missouri, we have seen quite a climb in our, in Illinois' COVID variants.

So Dave, I wanna ask you what, I mean, I highly doubt that anyone is cheering on any sort of mitigations now that we've fully had our economy reopen for about a month now.

But you know, what can the governor do?

He still does have an emergency declaration in place, so he could theoretically do what he wants to control the spread.

- I think those of us who are listening to the science are wondering if we're gonna have to have a booster, because you know, a lot of people are fully vaccinated, some aren't.

And I think, you know, what would be a real tell is if people who were vaccinated start coming down with this variant, and then we have to all line up for boosters all over again, but you're right.

We have seen where places, including Illinois, open up, then the cases rise.

But you know, now we're getting used to going to ball games again, restaurants again, et cetera.

It's hard to undo that now.

So it could be a pickle, but as I said, I guess my concern would be if the vaccination that I already have in me is enough to fight off the variant.

- Sure, and like you said, you can't put the toothpaste back in the tube, be very, very difficult to sell, you know, any sort of mitigations, shutting down parts of the economy again, or even going back to capacity limits, you know, especially with businesses recovering.

But Kent, you know, schools, some school districts, they start up class again in a month.

I know it's hard to believe.

They're still waiting.

School administrators are getting antsy.

They're still waiting on the state board of education to provide guidance for the new school year.

Will they have to wear masks?

Will students have to be vaccinated?

You know, this week, the State Superintendent Carmen Ayala sent a letter to, in response to this organization that represents large school districts in Illinois, basically saying we're waiting for CDC guidance, and IDPH guidance that comes from that.

I mean, how long until, you know, you think IDPH probably just has to act, and- - Yeah.

- Be decisive?

- At some point, you know, and very soon, they're gonna have to pull the trigger on a set of guidelines.

And I mean, the dilemma here is 12, or older, you can get vaccinated.

We don't have a lot of great data that I've seen in terms of exactly how much progress we've made in terms of vaccinating people that will be, you know, basically freshmen and up in terms of high school.

You know, you'll have some middle schools' children will be vaccinated, others won't, most of them won't.

Grade school, none of them will be.

And so, you know, I suspect, you know, caution will come down on some, you know, some amount of masking and social distancing.

But that's gonna be beyond, I mean, we've declared victory, like being on the bridge of, you know, the battleship, and you know, with President Bush, and I don't know, you know, there's too much uncertainty out there.

So I think it's going to become contentious, and not only in terms of parents' reactions, but you know, this is a huge issue within the Chicago, the negotiations in terms of opening the Chicago schools you know, whether or not, you know, what kinds of agreements you're gonna get from the school district about vaccination and mitigation kinds of things.

And so, you know, it's there you could have a battle involving parents and school boards, you got battles involving teacher unions and school administration, and that's the last thing we need.

We need to, you know, to try to make up from all of the ground we've lost in education.

So I wish, you know, everybody had taken the vaccine, and there weren't any variants, and you know, and the reality is just, you know, and we're gonna fight.

Now, we're talking about where, well, we're gonna go door-to-door, and that's gotten a big pushback and stuff.

So I don't know that we've got a lot of options other than just, you know, you're hoping that people eventually will increase the amount of vaccinations and that that will get us to a point where, you know, it'll slow down the variant.

But we've done, you know, we just haven't done the things that we needed to do in terms of getting everybody vaccinated, and all the problems flow from that.

- Yeah, I mean, if you're fully vaccinated, you're pretty well-protected against the Delta variant, but, you know, unlike the other, the original COVID virus and even the UK variant, when you're half-vaccinated, you're not as protected as you were with those two others.

But Dave, you know, especially kids who are under 12, you know, does it feel like they've been forgotten about?

I mean, they can still get the virus.

Delta is, you know, there is no evidence that it's ignoring kids, or skipping over kids.

In fact, you know, data from other states says that really it's young people, not necessarily kids, but young people being hospitalized who are unvaccinated.

So I mean, what have you heard from, you know, the local school district in Springfield, District 186?

Anything about their worries, or any plans there?

- They're expecting to do masks, and they're as frustrated as everybody else in not hearing from the state, and obviously ISBE is equally frustrated from what's been reported.

But yeah, you'd think the pediatric community ought to have something to say about, you know, just what we ought to be doing on kids.

- Sure, and I do have some data.

The 12 to 15 range in Illinois, about 430,000 of those kids have gotten their first doses, and the total population of that age range in Illinois is about 660,000.

So you've got, you know, about 2/3 who have gotten at least one shot.

Definitely takes a big plunge when you look at those who are fully vaccinated.

You know, hopefully in the next month, or so before school starts, kids can get their second doses.

But yeah, I mean, definitely not all protected, and for the school, for the state school board and IDPH to keep punting to depend on the CDC, I mean, they can only do that for so long, like Kent said.

I do wanna move on to one final topic before we end the show today.

The governor this week signed a pretty massive Medicaid expansion bill.

It includes things like new, entirely new programs, you know, help with smoking cessation, and you know, massively expands mental health services.

Medicaid will now cover marriage and family therapists, you know, dental coverage, you know, new coverage of kidney transplant meds, regardless of a person's immigration status.

And the surprising thing to me, because I honestly, this flew so low under the radar during session, I didn't even notice that this passed totally unanimously.

So Kent, what does it say when even Republicans will vote for something that is this massive?

I will say, you know, Medicaid dollars are, you know, a lot of federal dollars, but- - Yeah, it isn't long-term.

It's a commitment, as the federal to the state increases the state's commitment as the percentage of federal money goes down.

You know, we are having a pretty major shift, part of it fueled by all of the problems with the, that have stemmed from the pandemic, and the underlying healthcare problems have been revealed by the pandemic.

But you know, it's very popular with the public to expand access to healthcare.

I mean, this is, you know, a Medicaid population, but you know, there's certainly talk about Medicare in relation to hearing, and dental, and some other things in terms of just, you know, the over, generally over 65 population.

So you know, the idea that at some point we were gonna roll back the Great Society, or roll back the New Deal, we pretty much have been going in the opposite direction.

If you add the family, the childcare elements to this, then, you know, all of a sudden we look a lot more like most Western European nations in terms of the government's involvement with basic healthcare.

So yeah, somebody has to pay for it eventually, but it does indicate a pretty significant shift.

You know, politicians are voting for these because, you know, they're popular either directly with their constituents, or with the way constituents think that, you know, what government's role ought to be.

- Sure, and Dave, last week the governor signed a childcare expansion bill for low-income families that, you know, would make childcare as low as a dollar a month.

And you know, as we've seen through the pandemic, childcare has really been kind of a linchpin of the economy.

We've seen so many women, mothers leave the workforce, because they just simply, you know, when the daycare centers were closed, or didn't have enough capacity, they couldn't send their kids anywhere, couldn't send them to school.

So Dave, you know, the governor has made, again, social welfare a key, you know, part of his identity as governor, although, I do think it's interesting he ran as also a savvy businessman.

So with just about a minute left here, explain the tension between those two as he goes into the next election.

- I think when the dust clears, people by and large are going to praise how the governor has handled COVID, particularly with the social matters, and how he's handled the, you know, the federal funds.

He's not going unanimously, but as I said earlier, the political temperature in Illinois seems to favor what he's done.

I think he'll have, you know, a fairly high approval rating as we all look back on COVID.

Especially since the election is so far into the future, people will probably forget the bad things.

- Yeah, I mean, as we've mentioned on the show before, with things getting back to normal, people have pretty short memories, unless you were one of the folks who were affected by losing your job, and then having issues upon issues with the Illinois Department of Employment Security, like we talked about last week on the show, that will definitely stick with you.

But the vast majority of the population was, you know, they're okay, and things are getting back to normal for them.

But this is about all the time we have today for the show.

I'd like to thank my guests, Kent Redfield, Dave Dahl.

I'm Hannah Meisel.

Please catch us again next week on "CapitolView."

(dramatic music) (bright music)