From Sky news.

This is connections.

I'm Evan Dawson.

Our connection this hour was made over the past weekend, when President Donald Trump's chief negotiator of a possible cease fire between Russia and Ukraine sat down for a series of interviews.

It was a chance to see what Steve Whitcomb thinks about what is driving the Russian invasion, and what needs to happen for the war to end.

Whitcomb spoke to Tucker Carlson for an extended interview.

Then he sat down with Fox News.

It was perhaps not a good sign that Whitcomb could not remember the names of the Ukrainian oblast, or regions that Russia is trying to usurp.

Whitcomb echoed Russian propaganda when he cited a sham referendum in the eastern regions of Ukraine from October 2022, in which Russia controlled the vote, to supposedly claim that the citizens overwhelmingly want Russian rule.

Whitcomb referred to that referendum as if it were legitimate.

Whitcomb praised Vladimir Putin as being a genuine friend of Donald Trump, who prayed for Trump after the assassination attempt in Pennsylvania last year.

Whitcomb said he takes Putin at his word and when asked about the people Putin had condemned to death and murdered, Whitcomb concluded, quote, I think in my 68 years on this earth, I've never, ever seen a situation where there isn't two sides to a story.

It's just never as black and white as people want to portray.

I don't regard Putin as a bad guy at all.

He's super smart.

End quote.

This is yet another strong signal that the Trump administration is siding with Putin in Russia.

And Europe is taking that seriously.

With multiple NATO partners moving to increase their military defense and prepare for an alliance without the support of the United States.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer proposed a coalition of the willing providing security guarantees for Ukraine after the war with Russia.

The Trump administration dismissed this idea.

Wheatcroft said, quote, I think it's a combination of just a posture and a pose and a combination of also being simplistic.

There is sort of this notion that we've all got to be like Winston Churchill, but Russians are not going to march across Europe.

End quote.

Last week, the University of Rochester presented a lecture from a former Polish ambassador, Doctor Peter Quinn Comiskey, professor at the center for Comparative Studies of Civilizations in Poland and a scholarly visiting professor at the University of Rochester.

It was titled Europe in Times of Strategic Threat How the Russian Invasion of Ukraine and Global Ideological Shifts Have Changed the perspective on building and developing defense alliances in Central and Eastern Europe.

And we're here to continue that conversation.

UN connections, I want to welcome our guests here.

Doctor Kosky is with us now in studio.

It's nice to meet you.

Thank you for making time for this.

Great pleasure to be here.

Thank you very much for the invitation.

And welcome back to Randy Stone.

Doctor Stone is director of the Scholarly Center for Polish and Central European Studies at the University of Rochester.

Thank you for being here as well.

It's good to be with you again, Evan.

did you have a chance to hear what, the Trump team's lead to envoy in this negotiation was saying over the weekend.

Did you hear some of that?

it's it's shocking.

And this administered nation has shown, stunning incompetence, across a number of fields, but most notably, foreign policy.

They they're they're not informed.

they don't care to inform themselves very much.

And I think they're mainly speaking to their domestic political constituents.

do we have the sound?

Let's let's start with if we can.

I want to listen to some of what Steve Wyckoff said to Tucker Carlson.

This should be a longer clip.

Here he is talking in this conversation.

They it was a wide ranging discussion of how Wycoff sees Putin, how Wyckoff sees the Russian claims to the five oblast starting from Crimea all the way up to the Donbas.

Let's listen to a little bit of that conversation.

You seem convinced that he doesn't want to expand the territory beyond what he's taken now.

I know there's going to be conversation about how much of that Ukraine does or doesn't get back.

but you're convinced that he's not going to go further or have aspirations towards Europe.

Obviously, they're concerned about that being much closer to this geographically.

but 2014, we had Crimea.

That hasn't come back.

Why?

And he's, you know, gone far beyond that in this most recent attack on Ukraine.

So why are you convinced that he won't press further if he's given some reward or some territory this time around?

Well, look, he's he's been at war for several years.

it's in large part been about those five regions.

And, and it's in his speeches.

it's it's there is a view within, within the country of Russia that, that these are Russian territories, that there are referendums, within these territories that that justify these actions.

This is not me taking sides.

I'm just identifying what the issues are.

I don't I've never seen, a conflict that can be resolved with that level setting the facts and these and will level setting the facts.

Now, I've been asked my my opinion.

So about what, what, President Putin, his motives are on a larger scale.

And I simply have said that I just don't see that he wants to take all of Europe.

This is a much different situation than it was in World War two and World War two.

There was no NATO.

so I just you have countries that are arm there.

I just to me it just it just I take him at his word in this sense.

So and I think the Europeans are beginning to come to that belief too.

But it sort of doesn't matter.

That's an academic issue.

The real issue here, the agenda set forth by President Trump.

He is my boss and I adhere to that fact.

the agenda is stop the killing.

Stop the carnage.

Let's end this thing.

You can end things without communicating with both sides, understanding what each of them need, and then trying to bring them together.

And that's what we're doing.

All right, that's the clip of Woodcock talking to Fox News.

I want to listen as well to what he said on the Tucker Carlson show.

This is where he is misremembering even basic names of Ukrainian territories and oblast.

Let's listen.

I think the largest issue in that conflict are these, so-called four regions.

Donbas.

Yes, Crimea.

and, you know, the names of Lugansk and there's, there's two others there, Russian speaking.

Yeah.

There have been referendums where the overwhelming majority of the people have indicated that they want to be under Russian rule.

Yes.

I think that's the key issue in the conflict.

So that's the first thing that when that gets settled and we're having very, very positive conversation and Russia controls that.

In fact, some of those territories are now, from the Russian perspective, part of Russia.

Correct.

That's correct.

But this has always been the issue.

Right.

And it's it's sort of no one wants to talk about it.

That's the that's the elephant in the room.

The elephant in the room is there are constitutional issues within Ukraine as to what they can concede to with regard to giving up territory.

The Russians are de facto in control of these territories.

The question is, will they be, will the world acknowledge that those are Russian territories?

Will it end up?

can Zelensky survive politically if he acknowledges this?

That's Steve Whitcomb again, the lead envoy for the Trump administration who met with Vladimir Putin last week and is talking about how the Trump administration views the dynamics of the war and of some of those territories.

So let me ask both of our guests in studio.

I'll start with doctor Stone.

What do you make of what you just heard there from Steve Woodruff?

Well, it's an embarrassment that the United States is represented by people like this.

and he is repeating, Putin's talking points.

as you pointed out, the there there were some rigged, referenda in portions of those territories that were under Russian military rule.

no one should trust the outcomes of those of those, referenda.

The Russians do not control, any they do not control, all of, done yet.

Schooland Kherson, or Zaporizhzhia.

they do control all of Crimea, which they've controlled since 2014.

Putin's, position is that he, he expects, as a, as a as, precondition for negotiations.

He expects, Zelensky to cede the territory to portions of those four territories that Ukraine still controls.

so the notion that he would be satisfied and has no ambitions beyond, the, the Persians that he already controls is nonsense.

He's also, expressed the desire to liquidate the Ukrainian state and to, if it remains in existence, to impose constitutional controls on its that and and demilitarization which would allow it to become a de facto puppet state.

Putin has also made it clear in the past that he does not acknowledge, the independence of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which are three NATO members and EU members that are former Soviet, territories.

Right?

they are democratic governments.

They've been in place, since 1992 and independent.

And, he would like to absorb them, I think there's no, no reasonable question that that would be something he would expect to accomplish.

Well, Wycoff and Tucker Carlson literally laughed at that notion.

They said, why would he want to march across Europe?

Why would he want the rest of Ukraine beyond the eastern territories?

Why would he want the former Soviet states or satellite?

Why would he want that?

Well, he has said he wants it, right?

That's right.

He's made it very clear that he wants it.

Ukraine is a historical part of the Russian Empire, and it was a historical part of the Soviet Union.

And Russian leaders have historically wanted that territory.

They've considered it to be integral to their statehood and important to their world power.

And so it's not surprising that a Russian nationalist expects to be able to control Ukraine and, would be satisfied with nothing less than control Ukraine.

How far the ambitions, would go further west?

No one knows.

But I think it all depends on how powerful Putin is and how weak the West is.

would he like to dominate, Poland?

Sure.

Would he like to have control of, the former East Germany?

Well, yes.

I mean, he was he was employed in an earlier stage of his career in, repressing East Germany.

that's where he was stationed as a KGB colonel.

Doctor.

Quite conflicted.

What did you hear in those clips?

Well, I believe that we need to understand that, you know, Russia is very much interested in expansionist policies.

And Putin said it very clearly.

I want to rebuild Russia.

I want just to make Russia a big empire again.

And he, of course, said it quite openly.

We also need to remember that not all of Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire.

In fact, the western part of Ukraine was part of the Austrian Empire and is very much different from the rest of the country.

And also, I suppose Putin is very much afraid of democratic Ukraine, because that that may pose a big threat to the stability of, his government.

So imagine, Ukraine one day becomes a member of the European Union.

Ukraine has a population, that is very much interested in promoting democracy.

Well, there is a freedom of speech, freedom of religion.

And then, well, the Russian population might start wondering why we shouldn't have the same in Russia.

Why should we not emulate, the success in Ukraine?

And that may be very dangerous for Putin.

So, yes, he's very much interested in annexing Ukraine, or at least in having a very friendly government in Kiev, which means a pro-Russian government in Kiev.

But at the same time, he is very much afraid of having, a very democratic Ukraine next to his own country.

And also people, Russians or Russian speaking populations living in Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia.

Well, they also are aware of much higher standards in all these countries.

They're also aware of the fact that these are democratic countries.

were well, their life is much easier than back in Russia.

And well, it is what Putin is really scared of.

Well, so you need just to understand, you need to learn a bit more about the history of this part of the world.

But, you know, from the Polish perspective, I want to emphasize the fact, you know, that, yes, we value every possible effort to bring peace to this region.

Thousands of people have been killed so far.

I understand that it would be extremely difficult for Ukraine to recapture.

Well, all these lands it lost to, Russia.

And that's about 20% of all these territories.

Well, but at the same time, I believe that the majority of Ukrainians, will not accept a ceasefire, which is definite when just all these lands are officially ceded to Russia.

I suppose that it could be very difficult not only for Zelenskyy, but for many people living in Ukraine.

You know, they sacrificed their lives, they sacrificed almost everything to defend their own country.

And right now, if they are offered, you know, this kind of a ceasefire and this kind of well to peace negotiations result, I don't think they will be really satisfied with that.

So, you know, first of all, I suppose, well, the representatives of the American government should speak to both sides.

I understand okay, you need to talk to Russians.

You need to understand their own position.

You need to understand they they own logic.

You need to understand that geostrategic implications of the war.

But at the same time, well, you should talk to Ukrainians as well, and to listen very carefully what they might say about the war.

So, yes, as in, you know, diplomacy.

Well, we need just to concede that.

Well, so pros and cons at the same time, we need to listen very carefully, carefully to both sides of the conflict.

And, doctor.

Quite Kamsky, I can't ask you to speak for all of Poland, but I would like to.

I would like to get your Polish perspective on something else that the administration has been saying.

So when you point out that Putin is deeply uncomfortable with democratic creep toward the borders with Russia, Lithuania, Latvia, probably the color revolutions 20 years ago were inspiring anxiety among and Putin.

Yeah.

But there's a difference between Putin seeking to destabilize governments or a puppet government, or control versus actual invasion and land control.

And what Steve Wyckoff and what the Trump administration is saying is he doesn't want to do that.

He doesn't want Poland, he doesn't want Lithuania.

He's not going to go march into Latvia.

He's not targeting East Germany or in his mind, or Finland that this is it.

Do you think Polish people accept that, that there's not a scenario that Putin and Russia would, in, would invade another country, would seek to control Poland or Lithuania, Latvia or others?

Okay.

But you know, also, yes, we need to just to consider several scenarios.

There is not only one scenario, and I believe, that everything depends on how well America and Western Europe would react to, well, the plans or, you know, to, whatever Putin says about the war, okay, you can invade a country not to annex.

It's bad just to impose a full political control that is also possible.

So but Putin probably doesn't have to invade Lithuania, Ukraine or.

Oh, sorry, Lithuania, Estonia or Latvia to annex them.

Well, to make them parts of Russia.

But he can do that to impose a very strict political control and also to install puppet the governments, all of that.

So that is another possibility.

Of course, I'm not able to read Putin's mind.

No, that is not that is not possible.

But I suppose he is quite flexible.

But first of all, and I believe what he said, you know, more than you know, ten years ago that he is planning to rebuild the Russian Empire.

And he was deeply, you know, motivated by the previous tasks.

Well, you know, Lavrov, foreign Russian minister, once you know, said when asked about the chief advisors of President Putin.

And he said, you know, these are Peter the Great, Catherine the Great, and even the terrible.

Yes.

So these were the rulers who were very much interested in, well, expanding in expansionist policies.

Well, of course, we cannot talk about the details because we don't know what sort of details Putin may present to his inner circle of advisors.

But yes, I do believe that he needs Ukraine, because we think that Russia cannot become a superpower without annexing Ukraine.

But also, the next question could be what about Belarus?

Is he really interested in annexing another country, which is a Slavic country where people speak Russian?

Well, it doesn't mean that they want to become Russians.

Even if you speak the same language, it doesn't mean that you share the same values and the same traditions.

Then, okay, once Belarus is next, so why not to annex other countries which were the parts of the Soviet Union in the past?

Why not?

So everything depends on our reaction on our activities.

It depends, you know, on how well the European Union, would spend.

Well, its money on defense.

So there are a lot of factors that we need to consider before we take the proper action.

Do you want to add to that doctor Stone?

I think that's right.

And I think what is really going to be determinative here is how well the West European countries are able to take the place of the United States in foreign policy.

The United States has at least temporarily resigned from international leadership.

we've done that.

across the board.

We've done that in trade policy.

Right.

Where?

And we're doing that in, in security policy.

So this is a moment for Britain and France and Germany and Poland and other members of the European Union and members of NATO to step forward and take, take leadership.

And this will be complicated.

And it's complicated by Brexit, which means that Britain is no longer a member of the EU.

but it's it's still a member of NATO.

Right.

And this, the the architecture of how this is organized, is going to be tricky.

in some ways, it's cleaner to do it through the EU because the United States is not a member of the EU.

But, but neither is Britain, right?

So probably it has to be organized through NATO on the side.

but this is a, this is, is what's developing right now.

And I'm seeing very positive signs from Keir Starmer.

of Britain, from Emmanuel Macron of France, from Friedrich.

Merits of Germany.

I think that, we're going to see an unprecedented level of cooperation among the European allies in order to fill the vacuum.

Last time you were on this program, you brought up Munich, 1938.

And and I think it's certainly tempting to continue to see that parallel in certain ways.

but where there seems to be a departure for me, I want to listen to one more clip, if we could have of wit.

And again, we're playing Steve Whitcomb because he is speaking for this administration, and he's made it clear.

What he is relaying is reflective of his boss.

He said that in the in the previous clip.

So before we listen to that, for whatever you want to say about Neville Chamberlain, I don't think he would have said, well, I take I take Hitler at his word.

I think he's a good.

I don't think he's a bad guy.

I think he's very smart.

You know, he's, He prays for people.

He's sincere.

I mean, I think there was an understanding that there was a lot of risk involved.

but Chamberlain was hoping that, you know, the sedate lamb would be good enough, or there could be good enough at some point.

I don't know, but I want to listen to what Woodcock says about Putin in this other clip here that we have, and it just feels like there's a departure.

Let's listen.

In the second visit that I had, you know, it got personal.

The president, President Putin had commissioned a beautiful, portrait of the of President Trump from the leading Russian artist and actually gave it to me and asked me to take it home to President Trump, which I brought home and delivered him.

It's been reported in the paper.

But it was such a gracious, moment and told me a story, Tucker, about how when the president was shot, he went to his local church and met with his priest and prayed for the president, not because he was the president of the United.

He could be become the president of the United States.

But because he had a friendship with him and he was praying for his friend.

It was I mean, can you imagine sitting there listening to these kind of conversations?

And I came home and delivered that message to, our president, and delivered the painting.

And he was he was clearly, touched by it.

So this is the kind of connection that we've been able to reestablish.

Amen.

Through, by the way, a simple word called communication.

Steve Woodruff talking to Tucker Carlson this weekend.

What do you hear?

There is a stunning level of naivete.

I don't know whether he really is this naive or this is just for public consumption.

you know, George W Bush, famously met with, with Putin.

He looked him in the eye and he saw that this was a person with whom we could do business.

And then Putin invaded Georgia.

Right?

nothing with Putin should be taken at face value.

Of course, nothing that said by would call for or Trump should be taken at face value either.

You asked about Neville Chamberlain.

I mean, Neville Chamberlain is so much better than his reputation, but he has gone down in history as, the great appeaser, right?

and his foreign policies, I think, were deeply misguided.

and he, I think, was too hopeful.

He thought that maybe there was a line, that, that that would satisfy hare Hitler.

And it turned out that, that, that that wasn't the case.

I think Donald Trump is the Neville Chamberlain of the 21st century, except that he's less well-educated and less urbane.

But also, we need to remember that, you know, a lot of European politicians also, trusted Putin.

Well, they believe that whenever you start doing business with Putin, you will never stop the war.

So unfortunately, that was not true.

And nowadays, of course, well, you European politicians, I do not think that they have any illusions about Putin.

We in Central and Eastern Europe.

I mean, we never had any illusions about, you know, Putin.

Yes.

we understand that Putin, you know, will pose a very serious existential threat to our countries.

So we need to be quite well prepared.

And now the question, a big question is whether Europe well can well prepare itself perfectly for any possible invasion in the future.

Ursula von der Leyen, nowadays, said, announced quite officially that Europe is ready to spend $840 billion on defense.

So, yes, Europe has a big potential.

Europe has the standing army of 1.5 million active, you know, personnel.

Yes.

We also know that Putin, has a very big ambition to has the army of 1.5 billion soldiers as well.

So we as we also are fully aware that Putin has a big nuclear arsenal, but also it is France and the United Kingdom.

Both countries have.

Well, they own, you know, nuclear arsenal.

And President Macron made a declaration that France is ready to protect its own NATO allies in Europe.

So, of course, you know, America cannot be replaced, you know, overnight.

No, that is not possible.

But I still believe and, you know, from the Polish perspective that America will fulfill its NATO obligations.

I think so, yes, because I want to see a big difference between the rhetoric and the reality.

So we shall see.

you don't think that the Trump it would surprise you if the Trump administration pulled out of NATO officially?

Well, I don't think that, you know, America will change its foreign policy.

You know, regarding NATO just overnight.

That will be a very long process.

And I believe, you know, I suppose my belief is fully justified that America will remain, our ally for the months and years to come.

Yes.

We shall see.

Let's judge everything by, well, all the actions taken.

Not only by the words.

Sure, absolutely.

But an ally on paper is not the same as an ally in practice, perhaps.

Yeah, that is true.

So, yes, we still remember 1939.

Yes.

We did have a very strong ally.

That was France and the United Kingdom.

And we believed well in they promises that unfortunately, neither Britain nor France decided to attack Germany when we were invaded by the Nazi troops.

So, yes, we sometimes say that was a perfect example of the Western betrayal.

Well, and but I, I suppose that, well, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, as well as the president of France, they know this history quite well, and I don't think that they would disappoint us well, in the months to come.

And, you know, all the promises that they made so far, I mean, we shall see.

But I believe that the, well, the European Union is really ready to spend much more on defense is ready just to be, very active.

You know, our player in the global game.

And I suppose Putin knows that that's why he started his hybrid war against the European Union.

We shouldn't forget about that.

Yes.

You know, and the Russian propaganda, unfortunate seems to be quite successful in many countries, including Poland.

before I take Roy's phone call, doctor Stone, just one more note on that.

it it looks to me from my perspective, like you are European allies are treating NATO as if NATO should be prepared to exist without the United States, whether it becomes official or not.

Does that official denotation matter as much if in practice, we are not, we are equivocating on whether we would be true to article five.

We are equivocating on whether we would come to an ally's defense in the case of invasion.

I mean, what does NATO mean if ostensibly the most powerful member is equivocating so much?

Yes.

Well, NATO is several things.

NATO is a military alliance.

It's an international organization.

It's also a command structure.

the, institution, I think will definitely persist.

Even if the United States were to withdraw from it.

That would be a very self-destructive step.

and it's it seems unlikely that an American administration would, would take that step, that would reduce America's role in the world and influence in the world very dramatically, with no clear benefit.

But at this point, would anything surprise you?

It's getting harder and harder to surprise me, especially after what happened to, Columbia University and what's happened to, to, prominent law firms like Paul Face and so forth.

but it it it it would be another escalation of self-destruction, would be the immolation of American power.

Right?

Because American power rests on our close relationship with our allies and our multilateral connections through international institutions.

That's how leadership works.

That's why the United States is able to exert so much leverage all around the world.

if we dismantle all of that, we will find ourselves isolated and alone and ineffective.

and, it seems unlikely that, the Trump administration wants to be that ineffective.

after we take our only break, I'll come to your phone calls here.

you're hearing doctor Randy Stone, who's the director of the Scholarly Center for Polish and Central European Studies at the University of Rochester.

Doctor Peter Kosky, who is a professor of the Center for Comparative Studies of Civilizations in Krakow, Poland, and visiting professor at the Scholarly Center.

And this is a chance to talk to Doctor Comiskey, to Doctor Stone about some of the work they're doing here, some of the ways they're interacting with students, and questions about, current conflicts and how they see these alliances, shifting, changing, perhaps.

So we'll get some of your feedback on the other side of this.

Only break.

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This is connections.

I'm Evan Dawson Roy in Rochester.

First on the phone.

Hi, Roy.

Go ahead.

Good morning.

I.

Break what was being said?

I had kind of, like, two unclear thoughts about it.

A that Putin tries to expand his power.

I believe, like the professor said in in the Baltic and elsewhere, why pressure or not?

Outright attack or maybe, as you said, he had other people he thought of, like, Catherine, you find a couple of willing allies and you just cut the pie up, which happened to Poland.

okay.

Okay.

So.

But what exactly do you want them to address there, Roy?

what he thought about the.

Any more of that and maybe.

How far he thought Russia might expand?

Think of expanding it.

Yeah.

I mean, it's a fair question, Roy.

And before I turn to our guest to respond to that, I think Greg in San Diego has similar ideas on what he wants our guests to discuss.

So let me have Greg weigh in on that, too.

Hi, Greg.

Go ahead.

Good morning.

In the late 1980s, there was this thing that was still known as the Iron Curtain that split Eastern Europe from Western Europe.

Now the U.S. and NATO did not invade the east.

And, the Soviet Union at the time, was trying to hold on to Poland, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary.

but, Gorbachev had different ideas.

He was very different from Putin.

He was almost pro-Western in the fact that he let the Soviet Union break up into 15 republics, including Ukraine.

Now Putin wants to regain reverse.

That entire process from that occurred in 1989 to 1991.

And he wants what was east?

What was the countries behind the Iron Curtain to be back behind the Iron Curtain with the Soviet Union?

I would think that he probably still has his Communist Party.

Right.

from the Soviet Union days.

He has he has real desires to bring back the good old days.

I believe Greg in San Diego.

Roy in Rochester.

Thank you for those comments, doctor.

Quite well, I do agree.

Yes, Putin might think that he should be the leader who brings back old good days of the Soviet Union.

In fact, you know, his philosophy is a mixture of old, you know, expansionist Russian and the Soviet, you know, philosophies.

You know, I, I'm not quite sure whether he's very fond of the Soviet style of pursuing policies.

He's more interested in Imperial Russia.

So Russia, that existed prior to 1970.

And yes, he's a great fan of Peter the Great, which is a bit surprising because Peter the Great and of course, the founder of, well, the modern, Russian state, he was very much interested in emulating the Western values in Russia, but he was not quite successful.

But Putin definitely is not interested, in any kind of democratic values that should be implemented in Russia.

Well, also, please just add to stand that, Putin, in fact, you know, is also fond of bringing all Slavic nations, you know, together.

And these are Belarusians and Ukrainians.

Well, so I suppose that he cannot view Russia as a real superpower without annexing these two countries.

So that is his political go.

And that's quite that's quite important.

And I believe that Gorbachev was not really happy with the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

No, definitely he was against that.

He, his plan was to strengthen, well, the Soviet Union.

But it didn't work.

He was not able in fact, to well, he was not able to change well, the old economic structure of the Soviet state.

And that's why it collapsed.

And, yes, Putin wants to well, in fact, change that.

He wants to somehow change the history and, but I believe that he will not succeed, in the future.

And please don't remember, he is not a very young man, unlike Gorbachev, when he came to power.

So he wants to be remembered as the leader who was able to unite Russia.

He wants his name to be found in history textbooks.

He wants to have monuments.

Well, in the future also, we shouldn't forget about just the personal ambitions of the leader that also matters.

You know, please remember, Putin has been in power for 25 years.

That's a very long time.

So he's not interested, you know, in becoming even a more.

Well, affluent powers don't need Russia because he's got everything.

What he needs.

Yeah, yeah.

What he really just wants is to be well remembered, you know, as the supreme leader of the country.

So these, you know, personal ambitions, they really matter.

We shouldn't forget about that.

And you don't achieve greatness without some kind of significance for him.

Perhaps territorial expansion, reestablishment of of old borders, etc..

So, but on that note, doctor Stone here is a listener saying Russia is a huge danger to Europe.

The US needs to pay for Ukraine to resist Russia.

Except how much of a danger to Europe can Russia really be when they can't just run over Ukraine?

What do you think?

Well, it is very reassuring that Ukraine has been able to mount such effective resistance, but not on their own.

They haven't not on their own, but they've they've, done amazing things.

and they were virtually on their own at the beginning.

Right.

They, they had some, very important intelligence, assistance, early on, and some American equipment and, European equipment, but, the Ukrainians have been incredibly resourceful, incredibly, courageous.

And I think the, the, their success has been a sign of what happens when the whole society is engaged in resistance, against a rather inept and corrupt state bureaucracy on the Russian side, right, where the society is really not deeply engaged.

And, and, so the, the Ukrainians want independence much more than the Russians want to subjugate them.

But, the Russians are currently cowed by a great deal of repression, and Putin has had to use a tremendous amount of repression against his people, which he would have preferred not to have to employ, because that's costly for, an authoritarian leader.

and, in order to maintain order in the midst of a very unpopular war.

I think what the listener is implying here is we need not worried that Russia will continue westward, will continue into Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, etc., because they just had so much trouble with Ukraine.

So we don't need to worry about it.

Give them the eastern part of the country of Ukraine.

That'll be the end of it.

That that's where the ambition will stop, doctor.

Quite well.

I don't think so.

But also, I mean, once again, I like just to stress that point because it's quite important Russia has been pursuing its own hybrid war against the Western countries.

So we may expect you now just to have terrorist attacks, you know, in some places in Western Europe.

Yes.

The Russian propaganda, as I said, well, seems to be quite, you know, successful.

Yes.

Russia might be interested in building very good relations with extreme politicians in the European Union, pro-Russian politicians.

It is also some kind of the war.

Of course, it's not the same as, invasion military invasion of another country.

But Russia, unfortunately has very gifted you know, it is specialists and who are able just to, prepare well the best possible.

You know, it weapons against, Western nations.

And also, just one more thing, from the Polish perspective, we are very much worried about the, well, demographic situation in Ukraine.

Please remember, in 1991, the population of Ukraine was almost 52 million.

What Putin has done so far is that, well, a big reduction, you know, of manpower in Ukraine nowadays, of course, it's extremely difficult to verify that.

But the population of Ukraine is most probably around 30 million people.

So we don't know what might happen in the years to come.

Of course, I might assume that many Ukrainians, once the war is over, may return to their own country.

But very educated young people, they have left Ukraine, mostly women.

And that's a big loss, for you, for Ukraine.

And President Zelensky is is is aware of that.

So we shall see.

but also one more thing that should be remembered.

Also, Russia has really very serious demographic problems.

Yeah.

I mean, the population of Russia is decreasing.

So it was one of the reasons why Putin wanted to annex Ukraine.

He needed not only the land but also the people.

Fortunately, you know, he failed to benefit.

What what what happens in the future?

Well, it must be really determined.

let me grab one more phone call.

Andrew in Iran to Kuwait wants to weigh in.

Hi, Andrew.

Go ahead.

You know, the book of Ecclesiastes says there's a time for hugging and a time to refrain from hugging.

There's a time for war.

There's a time for peace.

Why don't we just go to war with this guy and finish him off?

I may not finish off Russia, but, you know, stop him and just put him in his place.

He's got a economy the size of Italy, for God's sakes.

We're the Western world.

We can't get it together.

And put this guy in his place and say, look, don't come back here.

You're going to get a even bloodier nose.

I don't understand why do we let the Russians send missiles into Ukraine for three years at a time and nobody fights back?

This is the time.

If there's ever a time for war and it's.

This is it.

You know, I, I mean, I love peace, too, but this is not the time for peace.

It's not working.

That's all I got to say.

Well, I mean, Andrew, I'll let our guests weigh in here.

I mean, I think the short thing that pops to mind for me is all of the concern about Putin and nuclear war.

everything you look at with Putin indicates he's not a nihilist.

He is more someone worried about the sword of Damocles, which is often sort of misinterpreted to mean that there is some imminent danger, as opposed to, I think, the way that that story reminds us that being in power means that you are often in danger.

So Putin has people test his food.

He doesn't.

He doesn't like going on vacation without all kinds of security.

So he's got all this material wealth.

The dark cloud cops he mentioned might be the richest man in the world for all we know, but he's always worried about his own health and safety.

He was paranoid about Covid, so he doesn't want to die.

He doesn't want, you know, to his life to end.

He is not a nihilist.

He doesn't not care about what would happen if he fired a nuclear warhead.

However, he does have an arsenal.

And if he is threatened as someone who's not a nihilist, you wonder how far it would have to go before he would access certain weaponry.

And I think, doctor Stone, that's what we've been talking about the last three years.

That's probably where certain limits are to resisting a man with that kind of an arsenal, I don't know.

What do you think?

Well, I think that's right.

I think that's why the Biden administration was as cautious as it was.

and over time, I think they learned that they didn't need to be quite as cautious as they thought they had to be at the beginning.

they gradually escalated the kinds of, support that they were willing to provide to Ukraine.

And it became clear that, Putin was, was cautious and was not going to escalate to nuclear war, when he wasn't pushed into, an existential, position of threat.

I think he would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons if the United States, were engaged in an all out warfare against him and he was about to, lose his power, be killed about.

Yes.

but I, I think there's a lot of room between here and there.

I think that, the United States could have a much firmer policy.

To Andrew's point.

You think he's making a fair point?

I absolutely I think it's it's a fair point that, the West should be increasing support for Ukraine.

Now.

and that that is the strategy that is more likely to lead to a rapid and sustained peace, rather than rather than pulling it away.

There's also the concern that goes beyond Ukraine and beyond Europe, which is that if it becomes the general perception that the United States is not interested in being engaged in the world and is not willing to take risks on behalf of its allies, then XI Jinping is eventually going to invade Taiwan, and the loss of Taiwan would be an economic and strategic loss that is much greater to the United States than the loss of Ukraine, and would be more likely to draw the United States into an unanticipated war.

So it's very important to avoid wars of miscalculation, right, which are brought about by uncertainty and lack of credibility.

and the easiest, cheapest and most effective way of avoiding war with China in the 21st century is to be tough in Ukraine.

Let me ask Doctor Koski, before we lose the hour, to just talk a little bit more about the European position, how Europe could change its own policies going forward here.

And I know you wanted to take a little time to talk to the audience about that.

Go ahead.

Well, I believe that Europe nowadays is fully aware of, well, the danger or the threat posed by Putin.

And yes, now, if you had asked me, well, this question, you know, just five years ago, I would have just responded that no, Europe is more interested in its own comfort of life, is not going to spend more on defense.

And in fact, many European countries want it to be some sort of a free rider.

You know, in NATO now that has changed completely.

That has changed completely.

Well, it means that even Germany, who was a very pacifist country in the past, is ready to spend a lot on its own defense.

That's also true with France.

Now, please remember, Poland is, so far spent almost around 5% of its GDP on defense.

And this our army nowadays is around 200,000, a men strong that we are ready just to make it even bigger.

300,000 people and watch again if you just, if you can ask me now the question whether young boys are really ready to serve in the Army five years ago, the majority of them would have just responded.

Now, not really.

But nowadays that has changed because we are aware, of that of that threat.

So yes, Europe is changing its mental state.

Vis-A-Vis Putin.

And it's what really matters.

Politicians are committed to reorganizing our defense system.

France is ready to offer, well, its nuclear protection so that the whole philosophy, of, you know, protecting Europe has changed significantly and the European Union is ready to defend itself.

So, yes, Europe is ready.

Of course, it is extremely difficult to replace America.

That will take quite a long time.

But please remember, Europe is still and well, a very rich continent with a very high standard of life and with advanced technology.

So I suppose we will prevail then, about 40s here, Greg wanted to know if Orban has a way of putting a wrench in what NATO can do.

Does Orban have that power?

Do you think doctor Stone?

a number of things in NATO are done by consensus.

And, yes, he can derail things, like admission of new members and so forth.

but, you can get around that.

If the United States is willing to lead, the United States has been able to twist the arms of, recalcitrant members like Turkey in the past, to get, Sweden and Finland, admitted to, to NATO.

it's that means that they have to have that disposition still.

And I don't know if I've heard a bigger admirer in American government of Orban than Vice President Vance.

So.

Yes.

And it's, this is another of the things that is deeply distressing about this government that, they don't seem to know who our friends are and who our enemies are.

I want to thank our guests for making the time this hour.

Doctor Randy Stone always, a great advantage for our audience to benefit from your expertise.

The director of the Scholarly Center for Polish and Central European Studies at the University of Rochester.

Thank you for being here.

Pleasure to be with you, Evan, and a pleasure to meet and get to know Doctor Peter Kosky, who's a professor at the center for Comparative Studies of Civilizations and a scholarly visiting professor here, a scholarly center, at the Scholarly Center for Polish and Central European Studies here at the University of Rochester.

Thank you very much indeed for inviting me.

Thank you very much for being here.

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