>> ERIC: MINNESOTA WEATHER, IT'S ALWAYS A CONVERSATION STARTER.

TODAY WAS BREEZY, CLOUDY, AND COLDER THAN AVERAGE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND THE STATE WILL BE IN THE 20S.

MAYBE SOME TEENS IN THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.

MUST MEAN WINTER IS RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER, RIGHT?

NOT SO FAST.

NEXT WEEK'S FORECAST INCLUDES UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS THAT COULD REACH INTO THE 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, AND THE ARROWHEAD COULD SEE 50S.

UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA PROFESSOR EMERITUS MARK SEELEY, A LONGTIME METEOROLOGIST AND CLIMATOLOGIST AT THE "U," JOINS US TO TALK WEATHER WHIPLASH.

SHORT-TERM WHAT ISWHAT IS CAUSING ALL THIS?

>> IT'S FOLLOWING TREND, ERIC.

IN FACT, WE TALKED ABOUT THIS EARLIER TODAY ON MPR.

THE NOVEMBER TREND IS HEAVILY, HEAVILY WARMER THAN NORMAL.

WE'RE PUCKERING SOMETHING LIKE 70% OF ALL NOVEMBERS HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN NORMAL.

AND WE'VE SEEN A LOT OF NOVEMBERS BRING 60-DEGREE DAYS.

WHICH IS PROBABLY WHAT WE'RE GOING TO GET NEXT WEEK.

YOU KNOW, THERE'S SEVERAL PLACES IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THAT ARE GOING TO SEE 60 DEGREES NEXT WEEK.

I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF SOME PLACE DIDN'T EVEN PUSH TO 70 NEXT WEEK.

>> Cathy: THAT'S SO UNUSUAL.

>> WE HIT 70 IN NOVEMBER ABOUT ONCE EVERY SIX OR SEVEN NOVEMBERS, CATHY.

WE HIT 60 IN ABOUT EVERY TWO OUT OF THREE NOVEMBERS.

SO IT'S BECOMING MORE COMMON.

AND THIS IS CLIMATE CHANGE SIGNATURE.

THERE'S NO IF,S, ANDS, OR BUTS ABOUT THIS.

EVEN IN THE LATE AUTUMN, IS INCREASING.

WE'RE SEEING A INCREASING FREQUENCY OF THIS.

>> Cathy: AND THAT INCLUDES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TOO.

>> YEAH, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE GOING UP TOO.

AND A LOT OF NIGHTS THAT WE'RE NOT DROPPING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK, YOU KNOW, WHICH IS CRAZY.

BUT THAT'S THE WAY IT IS.

A STRONG SIGNATURE.

THESE LONG AUTUMNS, THOUGH, ARE FRUSTRATING FOR SOME MINNESOTANS.

WE HAVE A LOT OF MINNESOTA CITIZENS THAT LOVE WINTER RECREATION.

>> Eric: OH, SURE.

>> THEY CAN'T WAIT FOR THAT SEASON TO START.

BUT NOW THEY'RE HAVING TO BE MORE AND MORE PATIENT.

>> YOU TWO TALKED ALL SUMMER ABOUT THE DROUGHT.

WHAT HAPPENED TO THAT?

>> IT HASN'T GONE AWAY, ERIC.

WE STILL HAVE ABOUT 43% OF THE MINNESOTA LANDSCAPE IN AT LEAST MODERATE OR WORSE DRIEWGHT.

DROUGHT.

AND, YOU KNOW, I THINK THAT'S GOING TO BE KIND OF STABLE THE RESDZ OF THE WAY.

SO I THINK WE'RE GOING TO CARRY THAT AMOUNT OF DROUGHT OVER INTO 2024.

AND WE'LL HAVE O DEAL WITH IT IN 2024.

BUT OF COURSE THAT'S A LONG WAY OFF.

A LOT COULD HAPPEN IN THE LATE WINTER AND SPRING THAT COULD STILL HELP ALLEVIATE THAT BEFORE FARMERS HAVE TO GET OUT IN THE FIELD NEXT SPRING.

>> Cathy: SAY, I WANT TO MAKE A NOTE THAT ODAY, THE 10TH OF NOVEMBER, IS THE 48TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE SINKING OF EDMUND FITZGERALD, GALES OF NOVEMBER.

AND WE ALL KNOW OF COURSE, ALL OF US KNOW THAT THAT BIG LAKE CAN JUST BE -- SHE CAN GET PRETTY IRRITATED AT TIMES AND GET PRETTY VIOLENT.

WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT THE HISTORY OF THAT STORM?

>> WELL, IT WAS ONE OF THE CLASSICS GALES IN NOVEMBER IN TERMS OF LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTED A FAIRLY LARGE AREA.

HAD A VERY LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE.

ALMOST A HURRICANE-LIKE, LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

OVER 70 MILES AN HOUR WINDS CIRCULATING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.

AND HUGE WAVES.

AND IT DELIVERED A LOT OF PRECIPITATION.

A LOT OF HIGH WINDS.

WE HAD A LOT OF PLACES THAT REPORTED WINDS OVER 50 AND 60 MILES AN HOUR.

AND THEN IT'S FUNNY YOU BRING THAT UP, CATHY, BECAUSE ALMOST THIS VERY MOMENT IN TIME AS WE'RE TALKING RIGHT NOW -- WAS ALMOST THIS VERY MOMENT IN TIME 48 YEARS AGO THAT THEY LOST SIGHT OF IT.

AND IT SANK.

>> Eric: I WAS WORKING THAT NIGHT AT KADL.

WINTER EXPECTATIONS WITH EL NINO?

>> WARM.

I THINK WE'VE BEEN HEARING THIS FROM ALL THE METEOROLOGICAL COMMUNITY HAS BEEN ON THE SAME PAGE IN THIS REGARD.

IT LOOKS LIKE THIS EL NINO, ERIC, IS GOING TO BE A STRONGER THAN AVERAGE EPISODE.

IT'D GOING TO BE A STRONG EPISODE.

BIG DEPARTURES IN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

SO I THINK THE SIGNATURE OF THAT IS A MILDER THAN WARMER WINTER.

SNOW IS A WILD CARD.

LET'S TAKE THE DICE AND THROW THEM, BECAUSE I THINK WE'RE GOING TO BE LACKING SNOW IN THE FIRST HALF OF WINTER.

BUT THEN I THINK WE CAN MAKE UP FOR IT THE SECOND HALF OF WINTEVER.

ALTHOUGH I AM NOT SAYING WE'LL MAKE UP FOR IT TO THE DEGREE THAT WE HAD 90 INCHES LAST YEAR.

BUT WE GET MIGHT MORE HEAVY SNOW FALLS THE SECOND HALF OF WINTER.

>> Cathy: PEOPLE CAN DEAL WITH THE SNOW.

IT'S THE ICE THAT PEOPLE DO NOT LIKE.

>> YES, RIGHT.

AND YOU BRING UP A GOOD POINT.

IN FACT, THIS IS ANOTHER TREND, I HATE TO TALK ABOUT THIS BECAUSE IT SCARES PEOPLE, BUT IN DECEMBER, ESPECIALLY CATHY, IN RECENT DECADES WE'VE SEEN MORE ICE IN DECEMBER AND THAT'S KIND OF SCARY BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE AUTO OF OUT RUN ING AROUND IN DECEMBER.

YOU GOT THE HOLIDAY SEASON AND EVERYTHING ELSE AND HAVING TO COPE WITH RICE IS NO GOOD.

>> Eric: GIVE YOUR BEST MINUTE ON THE LAST 25 YEARS OF MINNESOTA WEATHER.

>> WILDLY VARIABLE.

YOU KNOW, WE'VE HAD WILD EXCURSIONS.

WE'VE HAD SOME SUPER COLD SPRINGS.

AND WE'D HAD SOME EXTRAORDINARY WARMTH.

WE'VE HAD SOME HEAT WAVES.

WELL, LIKE THAT HEAT WAVE IN AUGUST.

WHEN EVERYBODY -- WE HAD, WHAT, TWO, THREE DAYS WHERE OUR HEAT INDEX WAS BETWEEN 109 AND 1127.

I'M FORTUNATELY THINKING WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO EXPECT MORE FREQUENCY OF THAT IN THE FUTURE.

>> Cathy: ALL RIGHT.

IT'S ALWAYS GREAT SEEING YOU.

BE BACK WITH PAUL DOUGLAS TIME.

>> I'LL LOOK FORWARD THAT.

>> YOU COULD BE AN EDUCATO