♪♪ >>> HELLO, EVERYONE, AND WELCOME TO "AMANPOUR & COMPANY" IN UKRAINE.

HERE'S WHAT'S COMING UP.

>> I WISH AMERICA REMAINS THE SYMBOL OF FREEDOM AND THE COUNTRY WHICH SET UP THE STANDARDS OF DEMOCRACY IN THE WORLD.

>> THE BELOVED UKRAINIAN NOVELIST ANDRE KRUKOV SHOWS ME THE QUIET ACTS OF RESISTANCE HERE IN WAR-TORN KYIV, AND SENDS A MESSAGE TO AMERICA.

I'LL PUT THIS TO UNDER SECRETARY OF STATE VICTORIA NULAND.

>>> THEN, THE DEATH OF ALEXEI NAVALNY SHAKES RUSSIA.

WHERE DOES PUTIN STAND NOW?

FROM MOSCOW, FORMER MP AND PUTIN ALLY SERGEY MARKOV JOINS ME.

>>> AND HOW POLICYMAKERS SHOULD HANDLE A FRAGMENTED WORLD.

THE IMF'S GITA GOPINATH ON THE STATE OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.

>>> "AMANPOUR & COMPANY" IS MADE POSSIBLE BY -- THE ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT JIM ATWOOD AND LESLIE WILLIAMS CANDACE KING WEIR THE FAMILY FOUNDATION OF LEILA AND MICKEY STRAUS MARK J. BLECHNER THE FILOMEN M. D'AGOSTINO FOUNDATION SETON J. MELVIN CHARLES ROSENBLUM KOO AND PATRICIA YUEN, COMMITTED TO BRIDGING CULTURAL DIFFERENCES IN OUR COMMUNITIES BARBARA HOPE ZUCKERBERG ADDITIONAL SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THESE FUNDERS, AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU.

THANK YOU.

>>> WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, EVERYONE.

I'M CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR IN KYIV.

AS THE WAR HERE APPROACHES TWO YEARS, RUSSIA CLAIMS TO HAVE CAPTURED A KEY VILLAGE IN THE KHERSON REGION.

BUT UKRAINIAN OFFICIALS SAY THEIR FORCES CONTINUE TO HOLD THEIR POSITIONS.

RUSSIA HAS MADE GAINS IN DONETSK, THOUGH, WHILE UKRAINE SAYS IT HIT A TRAINING GROUND FOR RUSSIAN TROOPS NEAR THE DNIPRO RIVER.

AND WHILE ORDINARY UKRAINIAN CIVILIANS FOLLOW THESE MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS CLOSELY, THEY ARE MOUNTING THEIR OWN RESISTANCE BY SIMPLY CARRYING ON, REFUSING TO BE COWED, JUST BUYING BOOKS AND READING THEM IS AN ACT OF RESISTANCE HERE THESE DAYS, AS WE DISCOVERED IN KYIV.

THIS BOOKSTORE IS CALLED SENS, OR "THE MEANING," AND OPENING IN KYIV JUST DAYS BEFORE THE RUSSIAN WAR OPENS A THIRD YEAR SENDS A CLEAR MESSAGE.

AND UKRAINE'S GREATEST LIVING NOVELIST ANDRE KORKOV TELLS US THERE IS MUCH TO SAY ABOUT UKRAINE'S CULTURE, IDENTITY AND RESISTANCE.

HE WROTE THE FORWARD FOR THIS TOME.

SO WHEN PUTIN SAYS THIS IS ALL GREATER RUSSIA, WHAT'S YOUR ANSWER?

>> WELL, HE IS SILLY, AND HE IS NOT HISTORIAN.

KYIV IS 1,540 YEARS OLD.

MOSCOW IS ONLY 870 YEARS OLD.

>> AN ARMY OF WORKERS IS STILL GETTING THE BOOKSTORE CAFE READY, BUT IT IS OPEN, AND PEOPLE COME IN HUNGRY FOR NONFICTION THESE DAYS, FOR THE HISTORY OF THEIR REGION.

UKRAINIAN IDENTITY HELPS THEM FIGHT AND RESIST, SAYS KURKOV, REMINDING US THAT RUSSIANS HAVE LOOT AND DESTROYED LIBRARIES, THEATERS AND MUSEUMS IN PARTS THEY NOW OCCUPY.

WHAT WOULD YOU BE SAYING, IF YOU WERE TO SAY ANYTHING, TO THE PEOPLE OF RUSSIA?

>> IT'S VERY GOOD QUESTION.

I WOULD PROBABLY ASK THEM TO PUT MIRRORS ALL AROUND THEM AND TO LOOK THEMSELVES IN THE EYES AND TO ASK THEMSELVES A QUESTION, IF THEY ARE LIVING IN 21st CENTURY OR IF THEY ARE STILL LIVING IN STALIN'S GULAG.

>> KURKOV, LIKE MOST UKRAINIANS SEE THEMSELVES THEIR LANDS AS THE FRONT LINE BETWEEN THEMSELVES AND THE DEMOCRATIC WORLDS.

KYIV IS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FIGHTING, BUT OVER IN THE NORTHEAST, KHARKIV, THE SECOND LARGEST CITY, THE DANGER IS REAL AND EVER PRESENT.

SOME 40 MILES FROM THE RUSSIA BORDER, THEIR MASSIVE S-300 MISSILES REACH THE CITY IN LESS THAN 40 SECONDS, NO TIME TO HIDE.

MEMORIALS TO THE RECENT DEAD SPRING UP ALL OVER.

"THIS IS A PLACE WHERE MATERIAL EVIDENCE OF WAR CRIMES COMMITTED BY THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IS STORED."

INCLUDING MULTIPLE LAUNCH ROCKET SYSTEMS, GRADS, CRUISE MISSILES, SHAHED DRONES, ARTILLERY SHELLS.

THIS KHARKIV RADIO STATION IS CALLED "BOILING OVER."

IT STARTED UP TEN YEARS AGO AFTER RUSSIA'S FIRST INVASION AS AN ALTERNATE VOICE.

"JUST A MONTH AND A HALF AGO, YOU COULD LISTEN TO DOZENS OF RUSSIAN STATIONS," SAYS THE FOUNDER.

ALL OF THESE ARE RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA STATIONS THAT TELL US THAT UKRAINE DOESN'T EXIST, THAT IT'S IN RUSSIA, AND THAT UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS SHOULD SURRENDER.

NATALYA, THE RADIO HOST TELLS US IT'S ALSO BECOME A SOUNDING BOARD FOR THE TERRIFIED AND DEPRESSED KHARKIV LISTENERS.

FEEDBACK CAN BE VARIED, SHE TELLS US.

SOMETIMES THEY JUST THANK ME FOR THE SHOW AND FOR THE FACT THAT THEY GOT OUT OF BED THANKS TO THE PROGRAM.

AND I CONSIDER THIS A VICTORY, BECAUSE IT COULD BE SOMEONE IN A STATE OF ABSOLUTELY DESPAIR.

LIKE UKRAINIANS EVERYWHERE, THE NOVELIST KURKOV TELLS ME HE IS HOPING FOR AMERICA TO STEP UP NOW.

>> AND REMEMBER THAT AMERICA WAS ALWAYS A SYMBOL OF FREEDOM FOR UKRAINE, FOR MANY COUNTRIES.

AND I WISH AMERICA REMAINS THIS SYMBOL OF FREEDOM AND THE COUNTRY WHICH SET UP THE STANDARDS OF DEMOCRACY IN THE WORLD.

>> KYIV AND KHARKIV, A TALE OF TWO CITIES AND SEPARATE STATES OF ANXIETY.

YOU HEARD ANDRE KURKOV THERE WITH HIS MESSAGE TO AMERICA, A SENTIMENT ECHOED BY SO MANY PEOPLE HERE AS THEY AWAIT THAT VITAL AID PACKAGE CURRENTLY STALLED IN CONGRESS.

AND THE WHITE HOUSE USED A MEMO TO SLAM REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS FOR NOT CANCELING RECESS TO PASS THE AID.

VICTORIA NULAND IS THE UNDER SECRETARY OF STATE FOR POLITICAL AFFAIRS, AND SHE KNOWS UKRAINE VERY WELL, MOST RECENTLY VISITING FOR TALKS LAST MONTH, AND SHE IS JOINING ME NOW FROM WASHINGTON.

WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, VICTORIA NULAND.

>> THANK YOU, CHRISTIANE.

GOOD TO BE WITH YOU AGAIN.

>> YES, YOU TOO.

AND I JUST WONDER, YOU PROBABLY HEARD WHAT ANDRE KURKOV -- YOU PROBABLY KNOW HIM -- SAID HE WOULD SAY TO THE AMERICANS IF HE COULD.

WHAT'S YOUR RESPONSE TO HIM AND OTHERS HERE TELLING US, YOU KNOW, AMERICA TALKS A GOOD GAME, BUT RIGHT NOW WE'RE STALLED, AND IT NEEDS TO REMEMBER IT IS THE FATHER, MOTHER OF DEMOCRACY AND FREEDOM AROUND THE WORLD.

>> WELL, THANK YOU, CHRISTIANE.

THAT'S THE POINT THAT PRESIDENT BIDEN IS MAKING AS WELL.

AND THAT 70 SENATORS MADE JUST LAST WEEK IN PASSING OVERWHELMINGLY THE ADMINISTRATION'S SUPPLEMENTAL REQUEST, INCLUDING $60 BILLION FOR UKRAINE.

SO NOW THE QUESTION IS IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES AND SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES IS STILL STRONG.

SO WE HOPE THAT REPRESENTATIVES WILL REFLECT THAT IN THE WAY THEY VOTE, AND IT'S STRONG NOT JUST BECAUSE PEOPLE UNDERSTAND HOW BRAVE AND RESILIENT UKRAINE HAS BEEN, BUT THIS IS NOT JUST ABOUT UKRAINE.

IF WE DON'T STOP PUTIN IN UKRAINE, HE WILL KEEP GOING, AND AUTOCRATS AND TYRANTS ALL AROUND THE WORLD WILL TAKE COMFORT AND THINK THAT THEY TOO CAN CHUNK OFF A PIECE OF THEIR NEIGHBOR.

SO THIS IS ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL.

>> IT IS.

AND I DO HEAR YOU AND THE OTHERS IN THE ADMINISTRATION AND SUPPORTERS TALKING ABOUT THE VITAL NECESSITY TO DO THIS.

BUT AS PEOPLE SAY, HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY.

AND DO YOU HAVE ANY ACTUAL BELIEF OR REASON TO BELIEVE THAT EVENTUALLY THIS BILL WILL BE PAID, AND IF NOT, HOW YOU GOING TO BE SURE THAT UKRAINE GETS VITAL AMMUNITIONS AND WEAPON?

>> CHRISTIANE, HAVE I STRONG CONFIDENCE THAT WHEN THE HOUSE COMES BACK AFTER THEY'VE BEEN OUT IN THEIR DISTRICTS HEARING FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE, AFTER THEY HAVE HEARD FROM UKRAINE, THEY HAVE HEARD FROM EUROPE, WHICH BY THE WAY JUST PASSED 54 BILLION IN ADDITIONAL AID ITSELF, THAT WE WILL DO WHAT WE HAVE ALWAYS DONE, WHICH IS DEFEND DEMOCRACY AND FREEDOM AROUND THE WORLD, NOT JUST FOR VICTIMS OF TYRANTS LIKE PUTIN, BUT IN OUR OWN INTERESTS IN PRESERVING A FREE AND OPEN INTERNATIONAL ORDER.

THAT'S WHAT WE NEED TO DO.

WE'VE DONE IT BEFORE.

AND BY THE WAY, WE HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT THE BULK OF THIS MONEY IS GOING RIGHT BACK INTO THE U.S. ECONOMY TO MAKE THOSE WEAPONS, INCLUDING GOOD-PAYING JOBS IN SOME 40 STATES ACROSS THE UNITED STATES.

>> EQUALLY, THE LACK OF THAT MONEY, AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, THE MATERIEL FOR THE FRONTLINE FIGHTERS IS BEING FELT ON THE FRONT RIGHT NOW.

AND I, IN THE LAST FEW DAYS THAT I'VE BEEN HERE, HAVE HEARD NOTHING BUT TALES OF HOW LIVES ARE BEING LOST, LAND IS BEING LOST.

IT'S REALLY, REALLY URGENT.

WHAT IS YOUR U.S. GOVERNMENT ASSESSMENT OF THE DANGERS FOR UKRAINE ON THE FRONT LINE RIGHT NOW?

>> WELL, YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT, CHRISTIANE.

WHEN I WAS THERE SOME THREE WEEKS AGO, THE UKRAINIAN MILITARY WAS REPORTING THAT IN SOME PARTS OF THAT FRONT LINE THAT THEY'VE BEEN HOLDING, WORLD WAR I-STYLE TRENCH WARFARE FOR TWO YEARS NOW.

SOME OF THE SOLDIERS HAVE ONLY 20 SHELLS TO SURVIVE THE DAY.

SO THIS SUPPLEMENTAL NOT ONLY GETS THEM MONEY -- GETS THEM AMMUNITION NOW, IT ALSO HELPS THEM TO BEGIN PRODUCING THEIR OWN AMMUNITION, AND TO HAVE A STRONGER OPPORTUNITY GOING FORWARD, AND TO BUILD A HIGHLY RESILIENT FORCE OF THE FUTURE.

YOU WERE IN KHARKIV.

IN KHARKIV, AS YOU PROBABLY NOTICED, PUTIN IS TRYING SOMETHING DIFFERENT.

HE IS BOMBARDING ONE OF UKRAINE'S MOST BEAUTIFUL EASTERN CITIES FROM THE AIR EVERY DAY, TRYING TO FLATTEN IT.

AND BY THE WAY, IT'S A RUSSIAN SPEAKING CITY THAT HE IS BOMBING.

REMEMBER, HE SAID THAT HE WAS GOING IN, IN THE FIRST PLACE BACK IN 2015 TO PROTECT RUSSIAN-SPEAKING UKRAINIANS.

AND NOW HE IS BOMBING THEM.

AND THAT'S ANOTHER WAY THAT WITHOUT MORE AIR DEFENSE, ET CETERA, HE CAN DO HIS BIDDING IN UKRAINE.

AND YOU COULD FEEL IT IN THE DESPERATE VOICES OF THOSE YOU INTERVIEWED.

>> INDEED, INDEED.

AND I WAS, AS MAYBE YOU WERE TOO, CERTAINLY AMERICAN OFFICIALS FROM THE ADMINISTRATION AT THE MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE.

BUT FIRST, WHAT I WANT TO DO IS TO PLAY WHAT FORMER CONGRESSWOMAN LIZ CHENEY HAS SAID ABOUT THIS AFFAIR, THIS SITUATION, AND HOW THE MAGA WING OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS REALLY ESSENTIALLY SHAPING NOT JUST THE DEBATE, BUT THIS THIS CASE, THE FRONT LINES AND THE BATTLES.

AND THEN I'LL ASK YOU ANOTHER QUESTION ABOUT IT.

>> YOU HAVE TO TAKE SERIOUSLY THE EXTENT TO WHICH YOU'VE NOW GOT A PUTIN WING OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.

I BELIEVE THE ISSUE THIS ELECTION CYCLE IS MAKING SURE THE PUTIN WING OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY DOES NOT TAKE OVER THE WEST WING OF THE WHITE HOUSE.

>> AND WE HEARD FROM THE FOREIGN MINISTER HERE, DIMITRI KULEBA THAT IF THEY HAD RECEIVED THE WEAPONS, THE SHELLS, THE AMMUNITION, THE MONEY THAT TRUMP HAS PREVENTED THE HOUSE SPEAKER FROM BRINGING TO THE FLOOR, THEY SAY AVDIIVKA WOULD NOT HAVE FALLEN.

SO I'M JUST WONDERING, AGAIN, WHAT IS THE WAY AROUND THAT?

AND DO YOU THINK -- BECAUSE WE LISTENED IN MUNICH TO A LOT OF THE REPUBLICAN SENATORS WHO WERE THERE WHO JUST SEEMED NOT TO WANT TO KNOW.

THEY KIND OF TROLLED EUROPE.

THEY KIND OF INSULTED UKRAINE, AND THEY ALMOST SAID -- MAYBE THEY DID SAY -- THAT IT'S TIME TO NEGOTIATE WITH PUTIN.

>> SO FIRST OF ALL, AS YOU KNOW, CHRISTIANE, AT THE STATE DEPARTMENT WE DON'T DO DOMESTIC POLITICS.

BUFFLY SAY ON A PERSONAL LEVEL THAT I COULDN'T HAVE SAID IT BETTER THAN CONGRESSWOMAN CHENEY SAID IT.

I THINK THE ISSUE NOW AS THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES COMES BACK IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS DO THEY WANT TO DO PUTIN'S BIDDING, OR DO THEY WANT TO DEFEND FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY, NOT JUST IN UKRAINE, BUT AROUND THE WORLD AS AMERICA HAS ALWAYS DONE AND IN OUR OWN INTERESTS.

AND THAT'S THE QUESTION THEY HAVE TO DIG DEEP AND ASK THEMSELVES.

AND THEY HAVE TO TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE DECISION THEY MAKE AND THE FUTURE THEY GIVE OUR CHILDREN.

>> SO UKRAINE OBVIOUSLY IS DEPENDENT ON THIS AID, AND IT'S BEEN DOING VERY WELL WITH THE AID IN THE LAST TWO YEARS.

IT'S BEEN HOLDING OFF A MUCH MORE POWERFUL, BETTER ARMED, MANY, MANY MORE PEOPLE THAT THEY CAN SEND TO THEIR FRONT.

AND IT'S BEEN DOING IT.

BUT NOW AS WE SEE, THEY ARE LOSING SOME TERRITORY, AND REALLY THE FIGHT IS ABSOLUTELY DESPERATE.

THEY ALSO HAVE NO HOPE AT ALL YET OF GETTING INTO NATO.

BUT THERE WAS ALSO ANOTHER ANNOUNCEMENT IN THE EU THAT THEIR INVITATION FOR ACCESSION PROCEDURE WILL BE DELAYED.

THAT'S A LOT TO THROW AT A COUNTRY THAT'S FIGHTING FOR ITS SURVIVAL RIGHT NOW.

WHY DO YOU THINK THE EU HAS PUT THAT ON THE BACK BURNER?

>> WELL, I THINK WHAT THE EU WAS TALKING ABOUT WAS THAT WITHOUT MORE ECONOMIC SUPPORT, WITHOUT TECHNICAL SUPPORT, UKRAINE CAN'T MAKE THE REFORMS THAT IT NEEDS TO MAKE IN ITS CUSTOM SYSTEM, IN THE WAY ITS ECONOMY WORKS AND ITS JUDICIAL SYSTEM TO BE ELIGIBLE TO BECOME AN EU MEMBER.

SO EVERYTHING GETS DELAYED WHEN AID IS DELAYED.

BUT AS YOU SAID, IT IS A GRINDING BATTLE ON THE FRONT LINES.

THIS SUPPLEMENTAL FUNDING THAT WE ARE ASKING CONGRESS FOR WILL ALSO HELP UKRAINE TO FIGHT AND ENHANCE ITS ASYMMETRIC MILITARY CAPABILITY.

BECAUSE FIGHTING LIKE WORLD WAR I TRENCH BATTLE IS NOT GOING TO GET THEM WHERE THEY WANT TO GO.

IT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THEIR ECONOMY.

THE MORE AIR DEFENSE YOU CAN BRING IN PROVIDES BUBBLES UNDER WHICH THE ECONOMY CAN GROW, THE TAX BASE CAN GROW, PEOPLE FEEL SAFE COPPING HOME.

ALL OF THIS IS ABOUT THE FIGHT TODAY, BUT IT'S ALSO ABOUT PUTTING UKRAINE ON A MORE SUSTAINABLE FOOTING WHERE IT CAN MEET THOSE EU BENCHMARKS, WHERE IT CAN BEGIN TO PRODUCE ITS OWN WEAPONS AND BUILD A HIGHLY DETERRENT FORCE OF THE FUTURE AND TELL PUTIN NO WHEN HE THINKS HE CAN WAIT UKRAINE OUT OR WAIT US OUT.

>> SO, YOU KNOW, YOU'VE ALL TRIED TO SORT OF PUT PUTIN ON THE BACK FOOT.

ALL THE SANCTIONS, THE UNITY OF NATO, WHICH HE DIDN'T EXPECT.

BUT WE HAD YEVGENIA ALBATS, A VERY DISTINGUISHED AND EXILED RUSSIAN JOURNALIST WHO TOLD THE PROGRAM LAST NIGHT THAT, YOU KNOW, PUTIN FEELS LOOKING AT WHAT'S GOING ON IN YOUR POLITICS -- I KNOW YOU DON'T LIKE TO TALK ABOUT POLITICS, BUT THEY'RE WATCHING PUTIN, SHE, EVERYBODY, IRAN, FEELS THAT THE WEST IS WEAK, AND IT'S FULFILLING WHAT HE PREDICTED, THAT THE WEST WOULD GET TIRED OF.

THIS AS LONG AS HE STAYED AT IT, THE WEST WOULD GET TIRED.

EVEN HE HAD WRITTEN THAT HE THOUGHT THAT THE TUCKER CARLSON CONVERSATION BROUGHT HIM BACK INTO THE INTERNATIONAL SORT OF SPOTLIGHT AND RUBBED A LITTLE OF THE PARIAH STATUS AWAY.

AND THEY ARE DOING WELL IN THEIR ECONOMY, BECAUSE THEY'VE TURNED INTO IT A DOMESTIC DEFENSE ECONOMY.

SO NOW DO YOU ASSESS THE STRENGTH OF THIS ADVERSARY?

>> WELL, FIRST OF ALL, IT DEPENDS WHAT KIND OF COUNTRY YOU WANT TO BUILD, RIGHT?

IF YOU WANT TO BUILD A COUNTRY WHERE A NEWS OF YOUR YOUNG MEN A DAY ARE SENT ACROSS THE FRONT LINES TO BE PUT INTO A MEAT GRINDER, AND YOU WANT TO TELL THEIR MOTHERS WHAT HAPPENED TO THEM, THEN YOU CAN HAVE PUTIN'S RUSSIA.

IF YOU WANT TO HAVE A SITUATION WHERE YOU'RE ABOUT TO HAVE AN ELECTION IN LESS THAN A MONTH, WHICH IS FRANKLY NO MORE THAN A SELECTION BECAUSE YOU'VE KILLED OFF OR IMPRISONED OR SILENCED ANY SERIOUS OPPONENT, THAT'S PUTIN'S RUSSIA.

IF YOU WANT TO DENY THE NEXT GENERATION THE TECHNOLOGY, THE EDUCATION IN THEIR FUTURE THAT YOUNG RUSSIANS WANT, THEN THAT'S PUTIN'S RUSSIA.

SO YOU'RE RIGHT, CHRISTIANE.

HE HAS TURNED THE ENTIRE COUNTRY INTO A BLOODY WAR MACHINE.

AND BY THE WAY, DEEPENED ITS DEPENDENCE ON NEIGHBORS LIKE CHINA, DEEPENED ITS DEPENDENCE ON PARIAH STATES LIKE IRAN AND NORTH KOREA.

I SYMPATHIZE WITH GENIA ALBATS, BECAUSE THAT'S NOT THE RUSSIA SHE WANTED.

IT'S NOT THE RUSSIA THAT FRANKLY WE WANTED.

WE WANTED A PARTNER THAT WAS GOING TO BE WESTERNIZING, THAT WAS GOING TO BE EUROPEAN.

BUT THAT'S NOT WHAT PUTIN HAS DONE.

AND AS DESPERATE AND AWFUL A SITUATION THIS IS FOR UKRAINE, PUTIN'S ALSO DESTROYED HIS OWN COUNTRY THROUGH ALL OF THIS.

AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THE NOOSE ON HIM AND FORCE HIS CHOICES TO BE -- TO COME TO THE TABLE IN A SERIOUS WAY OR LIVE WITH THE RUSSIA THAT HE HAS WROUGHT, WHICH IS NOT THE RUSSIA HE PROMISED HIS PEOPLE.

>> BUT VERY BRIEFLY, AND FINALLY, IS THIS THE RUSSIA THAT YOU FEAR COULD WIN HERE IN UKRAINE?

>> AGAIN, UKRAINE, THE EUROPEANS JUST PASSED $54 BILLION IN NEW ASSISTANCE FOR UKRAINE.

70 U.S.

SENATORS AGREE THAT WE SHOULD PASS THIS SUPPLEMENTAL REQUEST AND HELP UKRAINE NOW, HELP IT TURN THE CORNER IN 2024.

NOW ALL EYES ARE ON THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES.

I HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE AMERICAN PEOPLE'S SUPPORT FOR FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY, NOT JUST IN UKRAINE, BUT AROUND THE WORLD AND THEIR SENATORS HAVE ALREADY LISTENED TO THEM.

IT'S TIME FOR THE MEMBERS OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES TO ALSO HEAR THAT CALL FOR AMERICA TO STEP UP AND DO WHAT'S RIGHT IF WE WANT TO LIVE IN A FREE AND OPEN INTERNATIONAL ORDER GOING FORWARD.

AND NOT BE THE VICTIMS OF TYRANTS LIKE PUTIN OURSELVES, BECAUSE HE WILL KEEP COMING.

>> UNDER SECRETARY OF STATE VICTORIA NULAND, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

>>> AND NEXT, WE DO GO TO PUTIN'S RUSSIA.

YULIA NAVALNAYA REPEATED THAT THE KREMLIN KILLED HER HUSBAND.

NEWS TODAY THAT NAVALNY'S MOTHER HAS NOW SEEN HER SON'S BODY.

"YESTERDAY EVENING, THEY SECRETLY TOOK ME TO THE MORGUE, WHERE THEY SHOWED ME ALEXEI.

INVESTIGATORS CLAIM THEY KNOW THE CAUSE OF THE DEATH, THAT THEY HAVE ALL THE MEDICAL AND LEGAL DOCUMENTS READY, WHICH I SAW, AND I SIGNED THE MEDICAL DEATH CERTIFICATE.

>> THE DEATH OF RUSSIA'S MOST PROMINENT OPPOSITION LEADER HAS SHAKEN SUPPORTERS.

AN INDEPENDENT HUMAN RIGHTS MONITOR IN RUSSIA REPORTS THAT SOME OF THOSE DETAINED AT VIGILS FOR NAVALNY IN ST. PETERSBURG HAVE NOW RECEIVED MILITARY DRAFT SUMMONS TO FIGHT HERE IN UKRAINE.

SO LET'S BRING IN THE FORMER RUSSIAN MP SERGEY MARKOV.

HE IS FROM PUTIN'S POLITICAL PARTY, AND HE IS JOINING ME NOW FROM MOSCOW.

SERGEY MARKOV, WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.

THERE IS SO MUCH TO ASK YOU, BUT FIRST, I WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT THE DEATH OF ALEXEI NAVALNY AND -- HOW THE WEST -- HOW YOU THINK THE WORLD IS GOING TO REACT TO IT.

AND ARE YOU SURPRISED BY THE WAY THE WORLD HAS REACTED TO IT?

>> CERTAINLY NOT SURPRISED.

TO UNDERSTAND COULD HAPPEN, AND WESTERN LEADERS TRY TO USE THE DEATHS OF ANY POLITICAL OPINION TO VLADIMIR PUTIN TO DENY THE LEGITIMACY OF THE ELECTION OF PUTIN.

WESTERN LEADERS WARN POLITICAL -- OF PUTIN, AND WAS TO USE THE -- THEY WANT TO GO OKAY, PUTIN WAS, YOU KNOW, BY A LAW PRESIDENT, BUT PRESIDENT.

OF COURSE VERY MUCH CRIMINAL.

BUT NEVER LEGAL PRESIDENT.

BUT NOW OH, HE WILL NOT BE LEGAL BECAUSE HE KILL ALEXEI NAVALNY.

IT'S BEEN ABSOLUTELY CLEAR FOR EVERYBODY.

AS TO ALEXEI NAVALNY'S DEATH, I KNEW HIM.

I KNEW HIM A PERSON.

I MET HIM MANY, MANY TIME, AND I DISCUSS WITH HIM.

HE WAS VERY BRIGHT.

HE WAS VERY WELL EDUCATED, VERY MODERN STYLE POLITICIAN.

AND HE HAD GOOD POLITICAL PROSPECTUS.

BUT HIS POLITICAL PROSPECTUS FINISHED NOT NOW, BUT TEN YEARS AGO WHEN ALEXEI NAVALNY DID NOT RECOGNIZE CRIMEAN PEOPLE REJOINING RUSSIA.

CRIMEAN PEOPLE HAD BEEN SUPPORTED BY MORE THAN 90% OF RUSSIAN POPULATION.

AND IN THE MOMENT WHEN ALEXEI NAVALNY DENY TO SUPPORT CRIMEA, HE KILL HIMSELF AS A POLITICAL LEADER.

THEN HE BECAME LIKE MUCH CRIMINALIZED.

>> I UNDERSTAND THAT IN YOUR SYSTEM, HE ALIENATED HIMSELF BECAUSE HE DIDN'T ACCEPT WHAT THE REST OF THE WORLD BELIEVES IS AN ILLEGAL ANNEXATION.

I MEAN, LET'S JUST PUT THAT OUT THERE.

BUT I DO WANT TO ASK YOU WHETHER YOU THINK IT'S FAIR AND RIGHT, OR IS IT JUST REVENGE THAT SOME OF HIS SUPPORTERS WHO HAVE JUST GONE TO LAY FLOWERS AT A MEMORIAL HAVE BEEN GIVEN DRAFT NOTICES ESSENTIALLY TO COME HERE AND BE KILLED.

I MEAN, WHAT DOES THAT SOUND LIKE?

>> I THINK THIS IS SITUATION HAPPEN WHEN THE COUNTRY IN THE WAR.

YOU KNOW, WE WITH REGARD OURSELVES THAT WE'RE IN THE WAR WITH HUGE OVER MORE THAN 50 COUNTRIES LED BY UNITED STATES AND EUROPEAN, BRITAIN IN THE BIGGEST COLLUSION IN THE WAR IN HUMAN HISTORY, AND THEY'RE ATTACKING US.

YOUR COALITION ARE MAKING AGGRESSION AGAINST RUSSIA BIGGER THAN COALITION OF NAPOLEON BONAPARTE AND COALITION OF ADOLF HITLER.

AND WE ARE IN RESISTANCE.

THAT WHY RUSSIAN PUBLIC OPINION CLAIMED AS BRANDED TO THE UNITED STATES.

AMERICA THEY REGARD THEMSELVES AS -- FOR RUSSIA, AND THAT'S WHY SUCH BEHAVIOR.

IT'S NOT BEHAVIOR IN THE NORMAL.

IT'S BEHAVIOR IN THE SITUATION FOR ALL THE COUNTRY IN THE WORLD.

>> SERGEY MARKOV, LET ME JUST ASK YOU, AGAIN, YOU'VE SAID IT FROM YOUR PERSPECTIVE, BUT MOST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD, INCLUDING AT THE U.N. KNOW THAT IT WAS AN ILLEGAL INVASION BY RUSSIA AND ACTUALLY IT'S UKRAINE THAT IS RESISTING.

SO MY QUESTION TO YOU WOULD BE, AND I WOULD PUT IT TO PRESIDENT PUTIN TOO, IF I COULD, WHY WOULD YOU WANT TO SEND SO MANY OF YOUR OWN PEOPLE TO BE SLAUGHTERED ON THE BATTLEFIELD HERE, JUST FOR INCHES OF TERRITORY THAT'S CREATING A BLOODBATH THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE LIKES OF SINCE WORLD WAR I.

IN AVDIIVKA, WE UNDERSTAND THAT IT WAS ONE UKRAINIAN DEATH FOR SEVEN RUSSIAN DEATHS.

WHY IS THIS GOOD FOR RUSSIA?

>> FIRST OF ALL, INFORMATION, THE NUMBER OF DEATHS, ONE RUSSIA, TWO SOLDIERS TO TWO OR THREE UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS.

BUT THE TRAGEDY IS THAT EVERY DEATH UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS, THEY'RE RUSSIANS, FOR US, IT'S CIVIL WAR.

FOR US, IT'S OUR PEOPLE.

FOR US, UKRAINIAN CITIZENS, IT'S THOSE CITIZENS WHO SHOULD BE PART OF RUSSIA.

FOR US, AND FOR HISTORY, IN EVERY HISTORY TEXTBOOK THAT UKRAINE IS PART OF RUSSIA EXCEPT GERMAN OCCUPATION AND AMERICAN OCCUPATION OF UKRAINE RIGHT NOW.

AND THE REASON WHY VLADIMIR PUTIN STARTED THE WAR, IT WAS OUR PREDICTION THAT THIS WAR WILL HAPPEN ANY WAY AND WILL START WITH AGGRESSION OF AMERICAN PROXY ARMY, WHICH IS UKRAINIAN ARMY.

IT'S PLANNED EXACTLY TO 2023.

AND THE IDEA OR PLAN WAS TO CRASH, YOU KNOW, LIKE PUTIN AS LEADER AND TO HAVE INTENSIVE POLITICAL REPRESSION AGAINST PRO-RUSSIAN PEOPLE IN DONBAS REGION EXACTLY AS UKRAINIAN REGION MAKE POLITICAL -- IT GIVES RUSSIAN PEOPLE IN ODESA, IN NIKOLAI, VLADIMIR PUTIN DIDN'T WANT UKRAINIAN REGIME SAME ON DONBAS.

>> SERGEY, I KNOW THAT THAT'S YOUR NARRATIVE.

I KNOW THAT WHAT RUSSIA AND YOU ALL HAVE BEEN SAYING FROM THE BEGINNING.

BUT MY QUESTION TO YOU IS YOU JUST SAID ESSENTIALLY UKRAINE DOESN'T EXIST, THAT IT'S PART OF RUSSIA.

AND I'M WONDERING, YOU KNOW WE KNOW THAT HISTORY SHOWS THAT ACTUALLY, UKRAINIAN, KYIV IS DOUBLE THE AGE OF MOSCOW ITSELF.

SO IT'S A MUCH OLDER CIVILIZATION THAN MOSCOW.

AND I JUST WONDER WHETHER YOU'RE NOT WORRIED THAT WHEN YOU DENY THE EXISTENCE OF A PEOPLE AND A NATION, YOU'RE NOT SETTING YOURSELF UP FOR THE KIND OF WAR CRIME TALK THAT COULD BE ADJUDICATED IN THE FUTURE.

>> HERE, INTERESTING QUESTION.

OF COURSE THE CAPITAL KYIV, BUT IT'S THE CAPITAL.

OPEN A TEXTBOOK.

THEY CALL THEMSELVES NOT UKRAINIANS.

ALL LEADERS OF KYIV CAPITAL, THEY CALL THEM RUSSIANS.

THEY'RE RUSSIANS.

IT'S WHAT WE WANT TO SAY.

AND UKRAINIAN NARRATIVE, IT'S A NEW COLONIAL NARRATIVE WHICH FIRST OF ALL HAS BEEN EXPOSED BY POLISH OCCUPATION AND THEN USED BY GERMAN OCCUPATION DURING WORLD WAR I.

THEN USED BY BOLSHEVIK WHO WANTS TO DIVIDE THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE'S.

NOW IT'S USED BY AMERICAN OCCUPATION OF UKRAINE.

BUT IN FACT THEY'RE RUSSIANS.

CAPITAL, KYIV WAS CAPITAL.

BUT IT'S OUR CAPITAL.

IT'S NOT -- OUR WHOLE PEOPLE.

THAT'S WHY WE CALL THIS WAR A CIVIL WAR.

>> THAT'S WHAT I'M GOING ASK YOU NEXT.

FINAL QUESTION.

YOU SAY THAT IT'S OURS.

PRESIDENT PUTIN IS ABOUT TO BE SELECTED AS THE ENDURING RUSSIAN PRESIDENT.

ALMOST NO OPPOSITION.

WHAT DO YOU THINK, THEN, HE WILL DO IN HIS NEXT TERM?

IS THIS WAR GOING CONTINUE?

IS THERE ANY -- ARE YOU HEARING ANYTHING ABOUT ANY KIND OF MOVE IN MOSCOW, THE KREMLIN TO HAVE ANY NEGOTIATIONS TO END THE WAR?

>> HE WILL DO THE SAME, ACCORDING TO SOCIOLOGY, HE WILL GET ABOUT 75%.

BUT PUTIN HAS A POSITION.

HE HAS STRONGER POSITIONS, ABOUT HIS ECONOMIC PROPOSAL.

IT'S NATIONALISTIC POSITION AGAINST LIBERAL IMMIGRATION POLICY.

BUT OF COURSE THE NATION IS UNITED IN WAR.

PUTIN FOR US NOW IS CHECHNYAN IN BRITAIN, AS FRANKLIN ROOSEVELT FOR AMERICANS IN THE WORLD WAR II.

>> ALL RIGHT.

SERGEY MARKOV, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR JOINING US FROM RUSSIA, WITH YOUR VERY SPECIFIC POINT OF VIEW, WHICH I KNOW IS THE NARRATIVE IN MOSCOW.

THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR BEING WITH US.

AND AS WE'VE BEEN REPORTING ALL WEEK, UKRAINE IS FACING SOME SERIOUS CHALLENGES ON THE FRONT LINES, INCREASINGLY OUTMANNED AND OUTGUNNED.

HERE IS WHAT FOREIGN MINISTER DMYTRO CULEBRA TOLD ME JUST DAYS AGO.

CAN YOU HOLD OUT?

YOU SAY YOU WILL NOT FALL.

BUT A BIG TOWN HAS FALLEN, OR A MEDIUM-SIZED TOWN, AND THEY'RE PUTTING PRESSURE ON THE SECOND BIGGEST CITY IN UKRAINE RIGHT NOW.

>> WE WOULDN'T LOSE AVDIIVKA IF WE HAD RECEIVED ALL THE AMMUNITION THAT WE NEEDED TO DEFEND IT.

THAT IS MY ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTION.

>> AS SIMPLE AS THAT?

>> I DON'T THINK IT REQUIRES ANY ADDITIONAL COMMENTS.

>> SO LET'S GET A REALITY CHECK NOW ON THE STATE OF THIS WAR.

OLEKSIY GONCHARENKO, AND I'M GOING TO GET IT WRONG.

>> GONCHARENKO.

>> THERE YOU GO.

GONCHARENKO IS JOINING ME HERE.

AND YOU'RE INVOLVED IN MANY OF THE DISCUSSIONS, AND YOU ALSO WERE AT THE MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE.

YOU MIGHT HAVE HEARD UNDER SECRETARY OF STATE VICTORIA NULAND TALK OF ENDURING COMMITMENT OF THE UNITED STATES AND HOPING AND EXPECTING THIS EXTRA MILITARY AID TO BE DELIVERED.

WHAT IS YOUR REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS?

WHAT ARE YOU HEARING AND FEELING ON THE STREETS?

>> I WANT TO BELIEVE VICTORIA NULAND, BECAUSE THIS IS VITAL FOR US.

THE UNITED STATES TOLD WE WILL BE WITH YOU AS LONG AS IT TAKES.

NOW IT'S TIME TO KEEP THE PROMISES.

ALSO, I JUST WANT TO REMIND YOU THAT 30 YEARS AGO UKRAINE VOLUNTARILY GAVE UP THE THIRD BIGGEST NUCLEAR ARSENAL IN THE WORLD UNDER THE GUARANTEES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.

WE WOULD HAVE THIS ARSENAL, NOBODY NEVER WOULD ATTACK US.

WE DID IT, AND NOW WE WANT TO SEE THE GUARANTEES.

AND ALSO, THIS IS A BASIS OF NONPROLIFERATION POLICY IN THE WORLD.

BECAUSE IF UKRAINE WOULD FAIL LIKE WHAT IS THE MESSAGE TO THE WORLD?

IF YOU'RE GOING TO BE SECURE, THE ONLY WAY, GO NUKES.

BE PREPARED.

SO I HOPE THAT THE MESSAGE WILL BE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT, THAT THE BIG COUNTRIES LIKE THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, THEY'RE KEEPING THEIR PROMISE AND THEY'RE STANDING WITH THE COUNTRY SHOULDER TO SHOULDER LIKE THEY WILL SHOW IN UKRAINE WHERE WE ARE FIGHTING NOT ONLY FOR OURSELVES, BUT FOR INTERNATIONAL ORDER.

>> DID YOU HAVE ANY CONVERSATIONS ONE-ON-ONE?

I KNOW YOU ASKED SOME QUESTIONS TO SOME AMERICANS, INCLUDING THE REPUBLICAN SENATOR AT MUNICH.

BUT WERE YOU ABLE TO HAVE ANY ONE-ON-ONE OR SIDE CONVERSATIONS TO GET A FEEL FOR THEIR PULSE?

>> YEAH, I TRIED.

I'LL BE FRANK WITH YOU.

IT LOOKS LIKE AMERICAN POLITICIANS ARE VERY INSIDE UNITED STATES ELECTIONS.

AND IT BOTHERS ME BECAUSE LIKE I HAVE ALL RESPECT AMERICAN PEOPLE.

THEY WILL DECIDE WHO WILL BE YOUR NEXT PRESIDENT.

BUT I DON'T UNDERSTAND WHY UKRAINE SHOULD BE VICTIM OF THIS.

AND THAT'S IN THE BEST INTERESTS OF ALL AMERICANS, NO DIFFERENCE FOR WHOM THEY WILL VOTE THAT UKRAINE WILL SURVIVE, WILL WIN THIS WAR, AND THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA WILL HAVE A STRONG ALLY WHICH UKRAINE CAN BE.

IF THERE WILL BE ANY WAR IN FUTURE AND UNITED STATES WILL NEED PEOPLE WHO WILL STAND SHOULDER TO SHOULDER WITH THEM, WHO WILL BE ENTRENCHES NEAR TEHRAN?

I DON'T THINK MANY NATIONS ARE READY TO.

UKRAINIAN ARE READY.

WE ARE.

UKRAINIANS ARE READY TO STAND WITH THE UNITED STATES, SHOULDER TO SHOULDER.

ARE THEY IN TRENCHES NEAR IRAN, IN NORTH KOREA, OR NEAR BEIJING, NO DIFFERENCE.

BECAUSE WE APPRECIATE YOUR SUPPORT.

WE'RE STRONG ENOUGH.

WE TODAY ARE THE SECOND STRONGEST ARMY IN THE FREE WORLD AFTER THE UNITED STATES.

AND I THINK WE ARE VERY VALUABLE ALLY.

BUT TODAY WE NEED YOUR SUPPORT TO DEFEND OUR COUNTRY AND TO DEFEND OUR COMMON VALUES.

>> HOW WOULD YOU ASSESS THE GAPS IN THE AMMUNITION, IN THE WEAPONS, THE DELAY?

HOW WOULD YOU SAY SAYS IT ON THE BATTLEFIELD RIGHT NOW?

>> IT'S QUITE HARD.

AND IT'S BIG GAPS.

AND THAT'S WHY WE LOST AVDIIVKA, WHICH WE HOLD FOR TEN YEARS.

AND ALREADY THESE DELAY I HOPE TO SAY DELAY, IN SUPPORT FROM THE UNITED STATES, IT ALSO UNFORTUNATELY MAKES DIFFERENCE IN THE BATTLEFIELD AND NOT IN RIGHT SIDE.

SO THAT'S WHY WE NEED SO DESPERATELY NOW.

WHEN I HEARD FROM SOME REPUBLICAN SENATORS IN MUNICH THAT DEMOCRACY TAKES TIME AND NEEDS TIME, I JUST SAID WE ARE DYING EVERY DAY.

THAT'S THE POINT, EVERY DAY.

WE DON'T HAVE THIS TIME.

I THINK THIS IS NOT ABOUT THE TIME BUT IT'S ABOUT SOME DIFFERENT THINGS.

AND I DON'T THINK, AGAIN, WHAT I WANT TO TELL YOU THAT IT'S IN THE INTERESTS OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA TO HELP PUTIN, BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT'S GOING ON.

THE ONLY ONE PERSON WHO IS HAPPY FROM THE MESS WHICH, SORRY, IS HAPPENING NOW IN U.S. CONGRESS IS HELPING VLADIMIR PUTIN.

I DON'T BELIEVE THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WANT TO SEE THIS.

>> WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF SOME OF THE CONVERSATION THAT I'VE BEEN HAVING ABOUT HIM, ACTUALLY?

HE IS RUNNING -- THEY SAY HE HAS A HEFTY OPPOSITION, BUT HE IS EXPECTED TO WIN AGAIN.

>> HE HAS A POSITION, BUT HOLDING THE GRAVES.

IT'S VERY EASY.

LIKE MR. MARKOV SAID, THEY ARE POSITION TO PUTIN, YES, BUT JUST IN THE GRAVES.

THAT'S THE ONLY WAY.

>> SO SINCE YOU BROUGHT THAT UP, WHAT DO YOU THINK THE IMPACT OF ALEXEI NAVALNY'S DEATH ON RUSSIA WILL BE, ON THE PEOPLE THERE?

DO YOU THINK IT WILL MAKE ANY MATERIAL DIFFERENCE OR PUTIN WILL JUST CONTINUE, YOU KNOW, TO BE THE FOREVER LEADER?

>> HE WILL CONTINUE.

UNFORTUNATELY, MANY PEOPLE DO NOT REALIZE THIS IS NOT THE WAR OF VLADIMIR PUTIN.

THIS IS THE WAR OF RUSSIA AND RUSSIAN PEOPLE LEADED BY VLADIMIR PUTIN.

YES, THERE ARE VERY GOOD PEOPLE IN RUSSIA TOO, BUT THEY ARE VERY IN SMALL NUMBERS.

MOST ARE BRAINWASHED, MILITARISTIC, AND THEY SUPPORT PUTIN IN THIS.

IT'S LIKE IN NAZI GERMANY.

GERMANY BECAME FANTASTIC COUNTRY.

IT'S GREAT COUNTRY.

WE APPRECIATE IT, AND THAT'S WONDERFUL.

BUT ONLY AFTER GERMANY CAME THROUGH DEIMPERIALIZATION.

THAT'S THE THEME WHICH HAD NOT HAPPENED WITH RUSSIA.

AND ALL THESE CRAZY WHICH MR. MARKOV TOLD YOU, KYIV IS RUSSIA, YOU KNOW LIKE ORWELL, BAD IS GOOD, WHITE IS BLACK AND SO ON.

IT'S BECAUSE THEY'RE EMPIRE, AND THEY WANT TO CONTINUE TO BE EMPIRE.

AND BY EMPIRE, THEY WILL BE ALWAYS A THREAT, NOT ONLY TO ALL NEIGHBORS AROUND, BUT FOR THE WHOLE PLANET.

>> AND BRIEFLY, THOUGH, IT'S MAKING A DIFFERENCE ON THE FIELD.

AVDIIVKA HAS BEEN LOST.

YOU HELD IT FOR TEN YEARS.

TELL ME THE STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE OF THAT.

>> IT'S PAINFUL.

BUT AVDIIVKA HAD A POPULATION OF 30,000 PEOPLE.

SO IT'S NOT A HUGE CITY.

AND WHEN RUSSIA IS SO HAPPY TO TAKE AVDIIVKA, IT'S EVEN A LITTLE BIT HUMILIATING FOR THEM, CALLING THEMSELVES THE SECOND STRONGEST ARMY IN THE WORLD AND THEN BEING SO HAPPY THAT THEY TOOK A TOWN FROM 30,000 PEOPLE AFTER FOUR MONTHS OF ASSAULT.

BUT STILL, IT'S PAINFUL FOR US.

AND WE'RE LOSING OUR PEOPLE.

AND THAT IS PROBLEM.

SO I JUST WANT TO TELL YOU, WE'RE NOT SHUTTING PEOPLE.

WE'RE NOT SHOT IN COURAGE.

WE'RE SHOT IN SUPPORT FROM OUR ALLIES THAT IS OUR PROPERTY TODAY.

>> SO YOU'RE NOT SHORT IN PEOPLE?

>> WE'RE NOT SHORT IN PEOPLE.

WE'RE NOT SHORT IN COURAGE OF UKRAINIAN IMPEACHMENT.

>> I KNOW NOT COURAGE.

>> YES, THEY'RE FIVE TIMES BIGGER THAN US.

BUT OUR ARMY IS STRONG, AND THERE ARE ANOTHER UKRAINIAN PEOPLE READY TO STAND UP AND GO.

AND UKRAINIANS ARE STANDING IN THE LINES TO COME BACK TO THE COUNTRY TO FIGHT FOR COUNTRY.

BUT WE ARE SHORT IN AMMUNITION.

WE ARE SHORT IN WEAPONRY.

AND NOW WE NEED TO BALANCE IT WITH UKRAINIANS' LIVES, WHICH IS VERY PAINFUL, AND ALSO STRATEGY THAT'S WHAT PUTIN IS HOPING ABOUT, JUST TO OUTNUMBER US AND OUTWAIT.

I HOPE THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN WITH THE UNITED STATES' SUPPORT.

>> THANK YOU SO MUCH IN DINE FOR BEING WITH US.

>> THANK YOU.

>>> NOW OVER 30 YEARS AFTER THE IRON CURTAIN CAME DOWN, COULD THE WORLD BE EDGING TOWARDS A NEW COLD WAR?

OUR NEXT GUEST SAYS THAT MOUNTING TENSIONS BETWEEN THE PLANET'S MOST POWERFUL NATIONS HAVE CAUSED THE GLOBAL ECONOMY TO FRAGMENT INTO REGIONAL COMPETING BLOCS.

FIRST MANAGING DIRECTOR AT THE IMF GITA GOPINATH JOINS WALTER ISAACSON TO DISCUSS THE TURNING POINT FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY.

>> THANK YOU, CHRISTIANE AND GITA GOPINATH, WELCOME TO THE SHOW.

>> HI, WALTER.

IT'S A PLEASURE TO JOIN YOU.

>> IN A RECENT ARTICLE IN FOREIGN POLICY MAGAZINE, YOU TALK ABOUT THE RETREAT FROM GLOBALIZATION FROM THIS NOTION OF FREE TRADE, THAT WE'RE MAKING A COURSE CORRECTION AND DOING MORE ON SHORING.

ISN'T THAT A GOOD IDEA GIVEN THE PANDEMIC, THE SUPPLY CHAIN PROBLEMS WE'VE HAD, AND EVEN THE UKRAINE WAR?

>> WALTER, WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS THAT INCREASINGLY NATIONAL SECURITY AND ECONOMIC SECURITY CONCERNS ARE DRIVING TRADE POLICY.

AND THE OUTCOME OF THAT IS A LARGE INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF RESTRICTIONS THAT ARE BEING PUT ON TRADE.

SO JUST THIS LAST YEAR, THERE WERE 3,000 NEW TRADE RESTRICTIONS THAT WERE IMPOSED BY COUNTRIES.

IN 2019, THAT NUMBER WAS LESS THAN A THOUSAND.

SO WE ARE SEEING AN INCREASE IN RESTRICTIONS.

WHILE WE DON'T NECESSARILY SEE A DECLINE IN GLOBALIZATION, WHICH IS IF YOU LOOK AT THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF GLOBAL TRADE AS A SHARE OF GDP, WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS FRAGMENTATION, WHICH IS SOME COUNTRIES ARE TRADING MORE WITH MORE LIKE-MINDED COUNTRIES AS OPPOSED TO OTHERS.

SO IF YOU LOOK AT, FOR INSTANCE, THE TWO POWERS, THE U.S. AND CHINA AND COUNTRIES PICKING PARTNERS TO TRADE WITH, WE'VE SEEN A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN TRADE BETWEEN THE U.S. AND CHINA IN TERMS OF DIRECT TRADE LINKS BETWEEN THE U.S. AND CHINA.

SO THAT'S A SENSE IN WHICH WE ARE SEEING INCREASING SIGNS OF FRAGMENTATION.

>> DO YOU THINK THIS COULD LEAD TO A NEW COLD WAR, AT LEAST AN ECONOMIC COLD WAR?

>> IT DEPENDS UPON HOW COUNTRIES ARE GOING TO MANAGE THIS GOING FORWARD.

WE ARE AT A TIME WHEN THE AMOUNT OF ECONOMIC INTEGRATION WE HAVE IS MUCH HIGHER THAN IT WAS DURING THE COLD WAR.

THERE IS TRADE BETWEEN COUNTRIES IS NOW 60% OF GLOBAL GDP.

IN 1950, THAT NUMBER WAS 16%.

SO THE COSTS OF GOING INTO A FULL-BLOWN COLD WAR TOO WILL BE VERY HIGH COMPARED TO WHAT IT WAS BACK THEN.

AND THAT'S WHY WE DO SEE ATTEMPTS BY COUNTRIES AND LEADERS AROUND THE WORLD TO MAINTAIN LINES OF COMMUNICATION.

THE U.S. AND CHINA ARE WORKING TOGETHER.

THEY HAVE THESE WORKING GROUPS IN PLACE.

THE TWO PRESIDENTS MEET TO, YOU KNOW, AGAIN, TO MAKE SURE WE DON'T GO DOWN A VERY BAD SLIPPERY SLOPE.

SO IN THAT SENSE, I MAINTAIN SOME HOPE THAT WE CAN AVOID A REALLY BAD COLD WAR.

>> BUT LET'S LOOK AT THE BIGGER PICTURE HERE.

FOR ABOUT 20, 30 YEARS, WE DID A WHOLE LOT MORE TRADE.

THERE WAS A LOT MORE OFFSHORING.

JOBS LEFT -- MANUFACTURING JOBS LEFT THE UNITED STATES.

THIS LED TO A LOT OF POPULOUS BACKLASH.

LED TO A LOT OF PROBLEMS.

DID WE OVERDO TRADE AND GLOBALIZATION?

AND FOR THAT MATTER, IMMIGRATION?

AND AS I THINK EVEN YOUR OWN BOSS, THE HEAD OF THE IMF SAID, DON'T WE NEED A COURSE CORRECTION ON THIS OVER HYPER GLOBALIZATION?

>> WE HAVE TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT GLOBALIZATION DID NOT MAKE EVERYBODY WINNERS.

NOW THAT WAS ACTUALLY NEVER EXPECTED.

IT WAS ALWAYS A CASE THAT WHEN YOU END UP WITH GREATER TRADE TIES, YOU DO HAVE WINNERS, BUT YOU ALSO DO HAVE SOME PEOPLE WHO LOSE OUT.

NOW HOW DO YOU FIX THAT?

YOU FIX THAT BY HAVING THE RIGHT KINDS OF DOMESTIC POLICIES TO MAKE SURE THAT THOSE WHO ARE LOSING JOBS IN THE SECTORS THAT ARE GETTING, FOR INSTANCE, SENT TO OTHER COUNTRIES, THOSE WORKERS GET RETRAINED, THEY GET RESKILLED, AND THEY GET MATCHED WITH NEWER INDUSTRIES.

>> LET ME QUESTION YOU ON THAT.

HAVE YOU EVER SEEN ANY RESKILLING AND RETRAINING PROGRAMS ACTUALLY WORK?

>> THERE HAVE BEEN EXAMPLES WHERE IT'S WORKED, BUT I WILL AGREE WITH YOU THAT IN GENERAL THIS HAS BEEN MUCH HARDER TO MAKE HAPPEN.

FOR ME, THE LESSON IS NOT THAT MEANS THIS IS NOT THE RIGHT PATH TO GO DOWN.

I THINK IT MEANS THAT COUNTRIES HAVEN'T DONE ENOUGH.

AND MUCH MORE FOCUS NEEDS TO BE PAID TO IT.

NOW AGAIN, I WILL ABSOLUTELY ACCEPT THE FACT THAT WE'VE HAD A PERIOD OF HYPER GLOBALIZATION WHERE NOT ENOUGH ATTENTION WAS PAID TO COMMUNITIES THAT WERE GETTING NEGATIVELY IMPACTED, AND ALSO NOT ENOUGH ATTENTION WAS BEING PAID TO THE RESILIENCE OF THE SUPPLY CHAINS.

AND WE SAW THE PANDEMIC AND RUSSIA'S INVASION OF UKRAINE HAVE ALL EXPOSED THAT.

SO IT IS RIGHT FOR COUNTRIES TO PAUSE AND, YOU KNOW, FIGURE OUT HOW THEY'RE GOING TO MAKE SURE THAT THEIR ECONOMIES ARE MUCH MORE PROTECTED AND THAT PEOPLE ARE MUCH MORE PROTECTED.

THE ONLY THING I WOULD WARN AGAINST IS GOING DOWN A SLIPPERY SLOPE WHERE ULTIMATELY ALL THIS THEN BECOMES JUST ABOUT ECONOMIC COMPETITION, AND WE END UP WITH BASICALLY LOSING ALL THE POSITIVE GAINS WE'VE HAD FROM CLOSER INTEGRATION.

>> ONE THING THAT PRESIDENT BIDEN AND FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP ALMOST AGREE ON IS THAT WE HAVE TO DO A LOT MORE TO BRING MANUFACTURING BACK TO THE UNITED STATES.

IS THAT A MISTAKEN GOAL?

>> YOU KNOW, THE POLICY -- POLICIES THAT HELP ECONOMIES, WE'VE SEEN THIS REPEATEDLY ACROSS COUNTRIES IS POLICIES THAT IMPROVE INFRASTRUCTURE, THAT IMPROVE THE HUMAN CAPITAL OF THEIR COUNTRY, THAT PROVIDE APPRENTICESHIP PROGRAMS, TRAINING PROGRAMS.

SO WHEN YOU PUT THOSE KIND OF POLICIES IN PLACE AND REMOVE OBSTRUCTIONS IN THE ECONOMY, THEY DO CREATE THE RIGHT KINDS OF INDUSTRIES.

SO THAT KIND OF A STRATEGY, WHICH IS BUILDING UP INFRASTRUCTURE IS A GOOD THING.

IT HELPS EVERYBODY, AND NOT JUST THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR.

THE OTHER THING WE HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND IN TERMS OF MANUFACTURING IS, AGAIN, RECOGNIZING THAT THERE IS A WHOLE LOT MORE AUTOMATION NOW IN MANUFACTURING THAN IT USED TO BE IN THE PAST.

SO YOU COULD ACTUALLY INCREASE THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR IN TERMS OF SIZE, BUT IT WOULD NOT NECESSARILY CREATE THOSE MANY MORE JOBS.

>> SO WHAT WOULD BE IN YOUR MIND THE PROPER WAY TO MOVE BACK A BIT FROM THE ERA OF HYPER GLOBALIZATION TO TRY TO PROTECT AGAINST THE SUPPLY CHAIN SHOCKS WE'VE HAD, AND FOR THAT MATTER THE LOSS OF JOBS IN MANUFACTURING, OTHER THAN RETRAINING, WHAT WOULD BE THE PROPER WAY TO CALIBRATE THIS?

>> WELL, COUNTRIES NEED TO DIVERSIFY THEIR SUPPLY CHAINS MORE THAN THEY DID.

THERE WAS A PERIOD WHERE THE FOCUS WAS EXCLUSIVELY ON EFFICIENCY AND BUYING FROM THE CHEAPEST POSSIBLE SOURCE.

THAT MEANT RELYING VERY HEAVILY ON ONE OR TWO COUNTRIES.

AND THAT EXPOSES YOU TO RISKS.

SO DIVERSIFICATION IS IMPORTANT.

AND WE SEE ACTUALLY COMPANIES GOING AHEAD AND DOING THAT, WHICH IS DIVERSIFYING THEIR SUPPLY CHAINS.

SECONDLY, IT IS IMPORTANT FOR COUNTRIES TO COME TOGETHER AND REFORM THE TRADING SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE.

RIGHT NOW, THE RULES OF THE GAME DON'T DELIVER BENEFITS FOR EVERYBODY.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR COUNTRIES TO FIX IT.

AND THIS IS, AGAIN, IT IS THE JOB OF COUNTRIES TO DO.

SO RIGHT NOW THIS MONTH, THERE IS A HIGH LEVEL MINISTERIAL CONFERENCE TAKING PLACE AT THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION.

THAT IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR COUNTRIES TO SIT TOGETHER AND IMPROVE THE TRADING SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE, INCLUDING FIXING THE DISPUTE RESOLUTION MECHANISM THAT HAS BROKEN DOWN, ADDRESSING CONCERNS ABOUT INDUSTRIAL POLICIES, INDUSTRIAL SUBSIDIES BEING USED ACROSS THE WORLD.

THEY CAN DO IT.

BUT YOU REALLY NEED TO HAVE THE RIGHT INTENTION.

AND LASTLY, IN TERMS OF WORKERS, YOU NEED TO HAVE STRONGER SOCIAL SAFETY NETS, AND ALSO, WE SHOULD KEEP IN MIND THAT AN IMPORTANT FRACTION OF THE JOBS THAT WERE LOST IN MANUFACTURING DID NOT COME BECAUSE OF GLOBALIZATION.

IT CAME BECAUSE OF AUTOMATION.

SO THAT, OF COURSE, TAKES US TO DEVELOPING THE WORLD WHICH IS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND THE CONSEQUENCES THAT COULD HAVE FOR LABOR MARKETS.

SO, YOU KNOW, MANY ACTIONS WILL BE REQUIRED ON MULTIPLE FRONTS.

>> YOUR PIECE IN FORGIVEN POLICY, I LOVED IT BECAUSE IT WAS VERY HISTORICAL, AND YOU EVEN GO BACK TO RIGHT BEFORE WORLD WAR I.

AND BACK THEN, WE THOUGHT, AS PEOPLE SAY NOW, THAT MORE TRADE, MORE GLOBAL COMMERCE WILL LEAD TO GREATER PEACE.

BUT THAT CERTAINLY WAS NOT THE CASE WHEN RIGHT BEFORE WORLD WAR I, WORLD TRADE WAS HIGHER THAN IT'S EVER BEEN.

AND YET WE GOT INTO A WORLD WAR.

WHAT DO YOU THINK IT IS NOW?

IS IT TRUE THAT MORE GLOBAL TRADE WILL LEAD TO MORE STABILITY?

>> WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN HISTORY IS THAT WHEN ECONOMIES ARE WEAK, THEY ARE IN RECESSIONS, THEIR THERE ARE JOB LOSSES.

WE SAW THAT DURING THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF AN IMMENSE KIND, THAT'S WHEN PEOPLE WANT TO TURN AWAY FROM GLOBAL INTEGRATION.

THAT'S WHEN THERE IS AN INCENTIVE TO MOVE AWAY FROM ENGAGING WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD, INCLUDING THROUGH TRADE.

RIGHT NOW, WE HAVE A GLOBAL ECONOMY THAT HAS ACTUALLY BEEN MORE RESILIENT THAN WE EXPECTED IT WOULD BE, DESPITE THE BIG INCREASE IN INTEREST RATES THAT HAVE HAPPENED AROUND THE WORLD AND THE PANDEMIC AND THE WAR, DESPITE ALL OF THAT, WE HAVE RESILIENCE.

SO I THINK WE HAVE TO PAUSE AND RECOGNIZE THAT THIS INTEGRATION THAT WE HAVE SEEN HAS HELPED COUNTRIES REMAIN RESILIENT.

AND MAKE SURE YOU DON'T THROW THE BABY OUT WITH THE BATH WATER.

SO YOU HAVE TO BE CAREFUL ABOUT THAT.

IT IS STILL VERY MUCH THE CASE THAT HAVING INTEGRATION WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD, THESE TRADE RELATIONSHIPS HAVE BEEN BENEFITTED COUNTRIES.

THEY HELP IN TERMS OF PRODUCTIVITY.

THEY HELP IN TERMS OF AFFORDABILITY.

ALL OF THIS IS VALUABLE.

BUT AT THE SAME TIME, THIS IS ALSO THE TIME FOR COUNTRIES TO BUILD MORE RESILIENCE AND NOT JUST BE ABOUT EFFICIENCY, BUT BUILD RESILIENCE, TO ADDRESS BOTH THE NATIONAL AND ECONOMIC SECURITY CONCERNS.

>> ONE OF THE THINGS THAT HAPPENED AFTER THE UKRAINE INVASION BY RUSSIA WAS A LOT OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA.

AND WE WERE TOLD THEY COULD BE CRIPPLING SANCTIONS.

AND YET I JUST SAW THAT THE IMF SAID THAT THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY GREW AT 2.4%.

WHY HAVE SANCTIONS FAILED SO BADLY?

>> SO RUSSIA'S ECONOMY HAS INDEED SURPRISED IN TERMS OF THE STRENGTH OF ITS GROWTH.

BUT THAT SAID, THERE IS ONE PIECE THAT IS CLEAR, WHICH IS RUSSIA'S ECONOMY IS NOW A WAR ECONOMY.

THERE ARE -- THERE IS A LARGER AMOUNT OF MILITARY EXPENDITURE.

THERE IS A LARGER AMOUNT OF SOCIAL TRANSFERS THAT ARE HAPPENING.

AND THAT, AS WE KNOW, ALWAYS TENDS TO -- WILL RAISE GROWTH.

WE ARE ACTUALLY SEEING SIGNS OF AN OVERHEATING ECONOMY WITH INFLATION GOING UP.

SO THAT IS ONE IMPORTANT FACTOR THAT HAS HELD UP GROWTH IN RUSSIA.

THEY'VE ALSO BEEN ABLE TO CONTINUE TO EXPORT OIL THE WAY THEY'VE DONE IN THE PAST.

SO THEY'RE GETTING A LARGE AMOUNT OF EXPORT REVENUES WHICH HAVE ALSO HELPED THEM IN TERMS OF STABILIZING THEIR ECONOMY AND GROWING THEIR ECONOMY.

BUT AT THE SAME TIME, WE SHOULD RECOGNIZE THAT THEY HAVE LOST, RUSSIA HAS LOST AN IMPORTANT AMOUNT OF HUMAN CAPITAL AS SEVERAL OF THE HIGH SKILLED WORKERS HAVE LEFT.

THEY HAVE A MUCH HARDER TIME GETTING ACCESS TO ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY.

THAT AFFECTS THEIR PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY.

SO GOING FORWARD, OUR EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS WILL WEAKEN THEIR GROWTH IN THE MEDIUM TERM.

>> SOME PEOPLE HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE WEST SEIZE THE ASSETS OF RUSSIA, RUSSIAN BANKS THAT ARE HELD IN THE WEST AND USE THAT FOR UKRAINE.

IS THAT A GOOD IDEA IN YOUR OPINION?

>> SO, WALTER, WE HAVE A PRINCIPLE OF NEUTRALITY.

WE DON'T REALLY GET INVOLVED IN THESE KINDS OF DECISIONS ABOUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE FROZEN ASSETS.

WE ARE FOLLOWING THE DEVELOPMENTS CLOSELY.

IT IS GOING TO DEPEND UPON THE RELEVANT COUNTRIES WHOSE JURISDICTIONS THESE ASSETS ARE IN TO MAKE A DECISION.

THAT SAID, WE WILL OF COURSE EVALUATE THE IMPACT OF ANY ACTION THAT IS TAKEN WITH THESE ASSETS.

THE IMPACT FOR UKRAINE, FOR THE REST OF THE WORLD AND FOR THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM.

SO THAT'S WHERE WE COME IN.

>> THIS IS AN ELECTION YEAR, 2024, NOT JUST IN THE UNITED STATES, BUT A LOT OF COUNTRIES.

ARE YOU WORRIED THAT THAT COULD LEAD POLITICALLY TO A LOT OF DOMESTIC SPENDING, INCREASED DOMESTIC SPENDING IN COUNTRIES, AND THAT COULD DESTABILIZE THE GLOBAL ECONOMY?

>> IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT'S HAPPENED IN THE PAST, THERE IS A CORRELATION BETWEEN INCREASED SPENDING DURING ELECTION YEARS.

AND SO THAT WOULD BE A REASONABLE CONJECTURE TO HAVE.

YOU KNOW, ONE OF THE POINTS WE HAVE BEEN MAKING IS WE ARE NOW IN A WORLD WHERE DEBT LEVELS ARE VERY HIGH.

AND WE HAVE MANY COUNTRIES WHOSE FISCAL DEFICITS ARE TOO BIG.

THEY'RE SPENDING MUCH MORE THAN WHAT THEIR REVENUES ARE BRINGING IN.

SO IT IS OUR ADVICE THAT THIS IS ACTUALLY NOW A TIME TO CONSOLIDATE ON THE FISCAL FRONT, TO BUILD UP, ALSO BECAUSE THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE THE LAST -- WE'RE NOT DONE WITH SHOCKS.

WE'RE GOING SEE MANY MORE SHOCKS GOING INTO THE FUTURE.

WE'RE ALSO SEEING INTEREST RATES GOING UP.

AND INTEREST RATES LIKELY WILL BE HIGHER THAN THEY WERE DURING THAT PERIOD RIGHT AFTER THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS WHEN EVERYBODY PUSHED INTEREST RATES DOWN TO ROCK BOTTOM LEVELS.

THE INTEREST RATES WHICH GOVERNMENTS ARE BORROWING IS GOING UP.

THAT WILL CROWD OUT NECESSARY SPENDING THEY WILL HAVE TO DO.

IT IS OUR ADVICE THAT NOW IS THE TIME TO ENGAGE IN FISCAL CONSOLIDATION AND TO REBUILD BACKWARDS.

BUT OF COURSE DO THIS IN A SENSIBLE MANNER, WHICH IS NOT TO DO EVERYTHING UP FRONT, BUT TO SMOOTH IT OVER TIME.

>> THE ECONOMY, WHICH WE THOUGHT WAS BOTH HAVING PROBLEMS WITH INFLATION AND MIGHT THEN LEAD TO A RECESSION WITH THE HIGH INTEREST RATES THAT WERE BEING USED SEEMED IN THE UNITED STATES AND IN OTHER PLACES TOO TO HAVE HAD WHAT'S CALLED A SOFT LANDING.

IN OTHER WORDS, THE ECONOMY HAS DONE BETTER THAN MANY ECONOMISTS THOUGHT.

IS THAT TRUE IN THE UNITED STATES AND AROUND THE WORLD?

AND IF SO, WHAT WERE THE REASONS FOR THIS SOFT LANDING?

>> THE GLOBAL ECONOMY HAS BEEN MORE RESILIENT THAN MANY FEARED, AND WHILE WE DON'T HAVE A SOFT LANDING YET, OUR EXPECTATION IS THAT WE WILL SEE SOFT LANDINGS.

AGAIN, THAT IS OUR BASELINE.

AND THE REASON WE EXPECT TO SEE SOFT LANDINGS IS ONE, THAT INFLATION HAS COME DOWN QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY IN MANY PARTS OF THE WORLD WITHOUT NEEDING A BIG INCREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT RATES OR A BIG DROP IN ACTIVITIES.

SO WITHOUT THAT, WE HAVE SEEN INFLATION COMING DOWN QUITE A LOT.

THAT GIVES US HOPE WHY YOU COULD END UP WITH A SOFT LANDING.

NOW THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS WHY MAYBE WE END UP HERE.

WHAT WE SAW WERE A LOT OF SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS DURING THE PANDEMIC AND ALSO THE ENERGY PRICES THAT WENT UP DURING THE WAR.

THOSE HAVE UNBOUND, AND THAT HAS HELPED EVERYBODY IN BRING THEIR INFLATION DOWN.

BUT WE STILL HAVE THE LAST MILE, AND I WANT TO FLAG THAT, IS WE DO HAVE THE LAST MILE IN GETTING INFLATION BACK DOWN TO CENTRAL BANK TARGETS.

SO WE'RE NOT DONE.

THE APPROACH OF BEING CAUTIOUS IS THE RIGHT ONE, WHICH IS WHAT CENTRAL BANKS ARE SIGNALING, TO BE DATA DEPENDENT, AND TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS TO INFLATION WITH EVERY READING.

NOW I THINK WE SHOULD BE CAREFUL NOT TO EXTRAPOLATE FROM ONE DATA POINT AND EITHER HAVE EUPHORIA OR TO HAVE PANIC FROM IT.

OUR EXPECTATIONS IS THAT INFLATION WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE.

IT WILL BE BUMPY.

WE EXPECT THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE.

AGAIN, AS LONG AS POLICIES ARE MAINTAINED AT THE RIGHT LEVEL.

>> SO IN OTHER WORDS, WE SHOULDN'T RUSH INTO RATE CUTS RIGHT NOW?

>> OUR ADVICE IS TO BE CAUTIOUS ABOUT IT AND, YOU KNOW, OUR BEST GUESS ESTIMATE AT THIS POINT, GIVEN THE DATA THAT WE HAVE SEEN, IS THAT RATE CUTS ARE MORE LIKELY TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF THIS YEAR, BOTH IN THE U.S. AND IN YOUR AREA.

BUT AGAIN, ONE SHOULD DEBATE THIS DEPENDING ON WHAT THE DATA POINTS TO.

>> GITA GOPINATH, THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

>> THANK YOU, WALTER.

>> AN INSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATION AS RUSSIA'S INVASION CONTINUES TO POSE A THREAT TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.

>>> AND JOIN US TOMORROW FOR MY REPORT FROM BUCHA.

IT IS THE UPWARDLY MOBILE SUBURB OF KYIV INFAMOUS FOR ONE OF THE MOST BRUTAL MASSACRES BY RUSSIAN FORCES TWO YEARS AGO.

IT MARKED A TURNING POINT IN THE WAR, HARDENING UKRAINE'S RESOLVE TO DEFEAT RUSSIA AND DELIVERING A VITAL WAKE-UP CALL TO THE WORLD.

WE SEE HOW BUCHA IS RECOVERING TWO YEARS LATER.

>>> AND THAT'S IT FOR OUR PROGRAM TONIGHT.

IF YOU WANT TO FIND OUT WHAT'S COMING UP ON THE SHOW EVERY NIGHT, JUST SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER AT PBS.ORG/AMANPOUR.

THANK YOU FOR WATCHING AND JOIN US AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT FROM DNIPRO IN UKRAINE.