>>> HELLO, EVERYONE, AND WELCOME TO "AMANPOUR & CO." HERE'S WHAT'S COMING UP.

>> FOLKS, I PROMISE YOU, I'M JUST GETTING STARTED.

>> PRESIDENT BIDEN RAMPS UP HIS RE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN, AND I ASK DEMOCRATIC POLITICAL STRATEGIST SIMON ROSENBERG WHY HE BELIEVES THE PARTY IS STRONGER THAN PEOPLE THINK.

>>> AND -- DESPITE U.S. AND U.K.

STRIKES, THE HOUTHI LAUNCH NEW ATTACKS IN THE RED SEA.

I ASK A YEMENI POLITICAL ANALYST IF THIS IRAN PROXY CAN BE CONTROLLED.

>>> THEN -- >> WHY DO PARENTS STILL CONTINUE TO SUBJECT THEIR CHILDREN TO THIS PAIN?

>> A REPORT ON THE BRUTAL PRACTICE OF FEMALE GENITAL MUTILATION AND THE BRAVE ACTIVIST FIGHTING TO END IT.

>>> ALSO AHEAD -- >> A SINGLE THING CAN TIP YOU OVER THAT EDGE AND CREATE AN EXTREMELY CONSEQUENTIAL EVENT THAT SHIFTS HOW THE WORLD WORKS.

>> FLUKE, CHANCE, CHAOS, AND WHY EVERYTHING WE DO MATTERS.

POLITICAL SCIENTIST BRIAN CLASS TELLS WALTER ISAACSON ABOUT WHAT THE CHAOS THEORY CAN TEACH US.

>>> "AMANPOUR AND COMPANY" IS MADE POSSIBLE BY -- THE ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT.

JIM ATTWOOD AND LESLIE WILLIAMS.

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>>> ADDITIONAL SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THESE FUNDERS.

AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU.

THANK YOU.

>>> WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, EVERYONE.

I'M CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR IN LONDON.

A LEGAL BLOW FOR DONALD TRUMP'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN.

A FEDERAL APPEALS COURT RULES THAT HE DOES NOT HAVE PRESIDENTIAL IMMUNITY AND CAN BE PROSECUTED FOR TRYING TO REVERSE THE 2020 ELECTION.

AFTER WINNING IOWA AND THE NEW HAMPSHIRE GOP PRIMARIES HE IS A SHOE IN AS THEIR NOMINEE WHILE PRESIDENT NOMINEE IS TIPPED TO WIN NEVADA'S DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY TODAY.

HE NOTCHED UP HIS FIRST OFFICIAL VICTORY IN SOUTH CAROLINA THREE DAYS AGO, WINNING OVER 96% OF THE VOTE.

THE PRESIDENT TOUTED HIS SUCCESSES AT A CAMPAIGN RALLY IN LAS VEGAS OVER THE WEEKEND, RUNNING ON THE MESSAGE OF PROMISES MADE, PROMISES KEPT.

HE ALSO ADMITTED, THOUGH, THERE IS WORK TO BE DONE.

>> I KNOW, WE KNOW WE HAVE A LOT MORE TO DO.

AND NOT EVERYONE'S FEELING THE BENEFITS OF OUR INVESTMENTS AND PROGRESS YET, BUT INFLATION IS NOW LOWER IN AMERICA THAN ANY OTHER MAJOR ECONOMY IN THE WORLD.

>> AND THAT IS A FACT, AS ARE MANY OTHER KEY INDICATORS WHICH ARE IN HIS FAVOR.

YET THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE SHOWS GYRATING POLL NUMBERS.

IS THIS NORMAL THIS FAR AWAY FROM AN ELECTION, AND WHAT KIND OF HARD WORK DOES BIDEN STILL HAVE TO DO?

KEY DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST SIMON ROSENBERG PUTS BIDEN'S CHANCES FOR RE-ELECTION HIGHER THAN MOST, AND HE'S JOINING ME NOW FROM WASHINGTON, D.C. SIMON ROSENBERG, WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.

YOU KNOW, I'M WATCHING THIS AND EVERYBODY OVERSEAS IS WATCHING THIS, AND YOU CAN IMAGINE AMERICA'S ALLIES FOR ALL SORTS OF POLICY REASONS ARE VERY KEEN TO KNOW THAT PRESIDENT BIDEN WILL BE RE-ELECTED FOR ALL SORTS OF RULES OF THE INTERNATIONAL WORLD ORDER.

WHAT DO YOU SAY TO THEM WHEN THEY LOOK AT POLLS, FOR INSTANCE?

>> SURE.

I MEAN, I THINK, LOOK, MY BASIC TAKE ON THE ELECTION IS THAT JOE BIDEN IS A GOOD PRESIDENT, THE COUNTRY IS BETTER OFF.

THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS STRONG AND BEEN WINNING ELECTIONS ALL ACROSS THE COUNTRY, AND THE REPUBLICANS ARE FIELDING THE MOST UNFIT CANDIDATE IN OUR HISTORY WHO HAS -- AND SO I FEEL GOOD ABOUT WHERE THINGS ARE.

THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF OVERESTIMATION OF REPUBLICAN STRENGTH AND UNDERESTIMATION OF DEMOCRATIC STRENGTH IN RECENT ELECTIONS, I SO WHEN I PUT ALL THIS TOGETHER, AND I WAS VERY ACCURATE ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED IN 2022, I WOULD MUCH RATHER BE US THAN THEM, AND I THINK IT'S FAR MORE LIKELY THAT WE WIN THAN REPUBLICANS THIS YEAR.

>> TELL US AGAIN ABOUT 2022.

>> SURE.

NOW, HERE'S THE WAY TO THINK ABOUT THIS.

SINCE TRUMP BECAME CLEARLY MAGA IN THE 2017, 2018, YOU KNOW, CONGRESS, REPUBLICANS HAVE STRUGGLED TERRIBLY IN ELECTIONS.

WE HAD A GREAT ELECTION IN 2018.

WE HAD A GREAT ELECTION IN 2020.

WE UNSEATED AN INCUMBENT PRESIDENT AND WON THE SENATE, WHICH IS HARD TO DO IN OUR SYSTEM, AND SOMETHING UNUSUAL HAS HAPPENED.

IN OUR SYSTEM WHEN THE PARTY IN POWER ALWAYS LOSES SEATS WHEN THEY HAVE THE PRESIDENCY.

THEY LOSE CONGRESSIONAL SEATS, THEY LOSE SENATE SEATS, THEY LOSE STATE LEGISLATIVE CHAMBERS ALL ACROSS THE COUNTRY, AND IN THE LAST TWO YEARS SOMETHING OPPOSITE HAS HAPPENED.

SOMETHING HISTORIC, WE HAD AN HISTORIC MID-TERM WHERE WE GAINED GOVERNORSHIPS, WE GAIN STATE LEGISLATIVE CHAMBERS ALL ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

AND THEN IN 2023 WE ACTUALLY DID BETTER THAN WE DID IN 2022, AND WE WON IN PLACES LIKE OHIO AND WISCONSIN THAT ARE DIFFICULT PLACES FOR DEMOCRATS TO WIN.

AND SO SINCE DOBBS, AND IT'S MY VIEW SOMETHING REALLY BROKE INSIDE THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IN THE SPRING OF 2022, AND SINCE DOBBS HAPPENEDED THE DECISION TO END ROE v. WADE, THERE'S BEEN A BASIC FUNDAMENTAL DYNAMIC IN OUR POLITICS PLAYED OUT AGAIN AND AGAIN IN ELECTION AFTER ELECTION WHICH ARE DEMOCRATS ARE OVERPERFORMING EXPECTATIONS AND POLLS AND REPUBLICANS ARE UNDERPERFORMING.

AND THEY'RE EVEN SEEING THAT START TO PLAY OUT HERE IN EARLY 2024.

>> GOING TO GET INTO SOME OF THOSE DETAILED DATA, BUT FIRST I WANT TO ASK ABOUT THE NEWS, BECAUSE ONE OF THE MAIN THINGS YOU SAY TRUMP IS A LESS ATTRACTIVE CHARACTER AND CANDIDATE TODAY THAN HE WAS IN 2016.

NOW, ONE OF THOSE THINGS THAT DEMOCRATS FEEL IS UNATTRACTIVE BUT HIS SUPPORTERS DO NOT FEEL IS THE 91 COUNTS AND THE FOUR INDICTMENTS THAT HE HAS LEVELED AGAINST HIM.

AND NOW THAT THE FEDERAL APPEALS COURT HAS -- HAS DENIED HIS DESIRE TO BE GIVEN PRESIDENTIAL IMMUNITY, SAYING THAT HE'S NOT IMMUNE AND THAT HE CAN BE PROSECUTED WITH ALL THE RIGHTS OF A DEFENDANT, THAT HE'S JUST CITIZEN TRUMP, DO YOU THINK THAT WILL IMPACT, YOU KNOW, WHOEVER NEEDS TO BE IMPACTED?

OBVIOUSLY POTENTIALLY MAGA VOTERS WILL COME OUT FOR HIM AS THEY HAVE DONE IN THE PAST.

>> YEAH.

BUT WHAT I THINK WHAT WE'RE SEEING IN THE EARLY POLLING IN IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE, WHICH IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT'S WHERE VOTERS REALLY HAD TO PAY ATTENTION, WHERE ADS WERE RUNNING, THE CANDIDATES WERE CAMPAIGNING.

THOSE -- THE VIEWS THAT WE SAW IN THE POLLING IN THOSE EARLY STATES REALLY MATTER FOR 2024.

AND WHAT WE SAW IN BOTH STATES WAS A SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE, 20, 30%, DEPENDING ON THE WAY YOU LOOK AT IT, WHO WERE UNENTHUSIASTIC EVER SUPPORTING TRUMP.

IF IT WAS KNOWN HE WAS A CRIMINAL OR THAT, YOU KNOW, ALL THE PROBLEMS THAT HE'S HAD --.

I MEAN, IN IOWA NIKKI HALEY'S VOTERS -- MORE NIKKI HALEY VOTERS WHICH WAS 20% OF THE ELECTORATE SAID THEY WOULD BACK BIDEN THAN TRUMP.

WE'VE NEVER HAD POLLING IN GENERATIONS IN AMERICA WHERE ONE SET OF VOTERS IN ONE PARTY WERE SO WILLING TO SUPPORT, YOU KNOW, THE CANDIDATE OF THE OTHER PARTY.

TRUMP HAS DEMONSTRATED A LOT OF VERY EARLY WEAKNESS.

IT TURNOUT IN IOWA WAS ANEMIC, FAR LESS THAN THEY EXPECTED.

THERE WAS NOT A LOT OF ENTHUSIASM FOR HIM THERE.

IN NEW HAMPSHIRE HE CAME IN 10 TO 15 POINTS BELOW PUBLIC POLLING AND UNDERPERFORMED DRAMATICALLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

HE'S HAD TWO VERY WEAK PERFORMANCES SO FAR, AND THIS GOES BACK TO MY BASIC TAKE, WHICH IS WHEN PEOPLE ARE ACTUALLY VOTING IN ELECTION AFTER ELECTION ALL ACROSS THE U.S.

SINCE THE SPRING OF 2022, WE'VE DONE BETTER THAN EXPECTED AND REPUBLICANS HAVE STRUGGLED.

AND I THINK THERE IS -- I THINK DONALD TRUMP IS A FAR WEAKER CANDIDATE TODAY THAN HE WAS IN 2016 OR 2020 FOR A WHOLE HOST OF REASONS, RIGHT?

HIS PERFORMANCE HAS DIMINISHED, BUT IMPORTANTLY GETTING TO WHAT YOU WERE ASKING FOR, I'LL DO THIS QUICKLY THERE'S GOING TO BE SIX THINGS VOTERS KNOW ABOUT HIM IN THIS ELECTION THAT THEY DIDN'T KNOW ABOUT HIM IN 2020.

ONE THAT HE RAPED A WOMAN IN A DEPARTMENT STORE DRESSING ROOM.

THAT'S BEEN LITIGATED AND DECIDED BY A JURY OF HIS PEERS.

SECOND, HE COMMITTED MASSIVE FINANCIAL FRAUD, WHICH IS ABOUT TO BE FINALIZED HERE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THIRD, IS THAT HE LED AN INSURRECTION AND HE'S PROMISED NOW TO END AMERICAN DEMOCRACY FOR ALL-TIME.

FOURTH, THAT HE STOLE AMERICA'S SECRETS, LIED ABOUT IT TO THE FBI AND SHARED THOSE SECRETS WITH OTHER PEOPLE.

FIFTH, THAT HIS FAMILY HAS TAKEN MORE MONEY FROM FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS THAN ANY POLITICAL FAMILY IN AMERICAN HISTORY.

AND FINALLY, HE SINGLY WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR ENDING ROE.

WE HAVE SIX DISQUALIFYING EVENTS THAT HAVE HAPPENED WE'RE GOING TO BE ABLE TO USE AS PEOPLE IN POLITICS TO PUSH HIM FURTHER AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ELECTORATE, WHICH IS WHY I'M SO OPTIMISTIC WE CAN WIN THE ELECTION THIS YEAR.

>> SO WITH ALL THAT DATA YOU'VE JUST GIVEN US, WILL YOU EXPLAIN THEN FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE COMPLETELY CONFUSED ABOUT THE POLLS.

WHY THEN DO POLLS GIVE HIM SUCH A LEAD SOMETIMES A LITTLE BIT OF A LEAD, OTHER TIMES BIDEN A LITTLE -- I MEAN, IT'S REALLY DIFFICULT TO UNDERSTAND WHAT THE LAY OF THE LAND IS.

>> I AGREE WITH THAT.

AND I DON'T ENVY ANYONE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT OUR CRAZY SYSTEM ABROAD.

IT'S A HARD THING FOR US IN THE SYSTEM EVERY DAY TO MAKE SENSE OF.

BUT THE WAY TO THINK ABOUT IT IS THE POLLING IS SHOWING TODAY TO BE A CLOSE ELECTION.

JUST IN THE LAST TEN DAYS THERE HAVE BEEN FOUR MAJOR NATIONAL POLLS SHOWING BIDEN ACTUALLY GAINING SIGNIFICANTLY.

IN THREE OF THEM HE'S ACTUALLY SUBSTANTIALLY AHEAD, SO THE WAY I VIEW IT AS WE'RE LOOKING AT A CLOSE COMPETITIVE ELECTION TODAY, WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING BECAUSE ONE PARTY IS HAVING A REAL PRIMARY, OUR PARTY ISN'T REALLY HAVING A REAL PRIMARY.

IT'S NOT SURPRISING THAT REPUBLICAN VOTERS ARE SHOWING UP MORE IN THE POLLING, THAT THERE'S MORE INTENSITY FOR REPUBLICANS IN THE POLLING, WHICH I THINK IS MAKING THE POLLING A LITTLE BIT MORE REPUBLICAN THAN IT WILL BE IN LET'S SAY THREE OR FOUR MONTHS.

WHEN DEMOCRATIC VOTERS RECOGNIZE THAT IT'S GOING TO BE TRUMP AND BIDEN AND IT'S GOING TO BE TIME TO ENGAGE.

YOU KNOW, WE'VE HAD THIS VERY UNUSUAL THING WHERE ONE PARTY IS HAVING AN ELECTION AND THE OTHER PARTY REALLY ISN'T AT THE END OF THE DAY.

AND THE POLLING HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT MORE REPUBLICAN THAN I THINK IT WILL BE.

BUT WE'LL SEE.

LOOK, WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO.

I'M NOT SITTING HERE BEING POLLIANISH AND TELLING YOU EVERYTHING IS GOING TO BE GREAT.

WHERE I'M SANGUINE ABOUT WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS I DO BELIEVE ONCE THE ADS START AND THE SHOOTING STARTS IN OUR SYSTEM, WE HAVE A STRONG -- JOE BIDEN HAS A VERY STRONG ARGUMENT TO MAKE FOR RE-ELECTION.

THE COUNTRY IS CLEARLY BETTER OFF THAN WHEN HE CAME TOO OFFICE, AND THE REPUBLICANS HAVE THE MOST UNFIT, DISGRACED PERSON TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN OUR HISTORY.

I THINK WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO WIN THIS ELECTION.

>> SO THE ADS HAVE STARTED, AND THE OPPOSITION AND PEOPLE ARE SAYING THAT ONE OF THE BIGGEST ISSUES IF NOT THE BIGGEST BASICALLY IT'S THE ECONOMY AND THE BORDER, IMMIGRATION.

SO I WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT THE CURRENT -- I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO CALL IT.

THE CURRENT DEBACLE IN CONGRESS OVER THE DEMOCRATS AGREEING TO A VERY FAR-REACHING IMMIGRATION IN ORDER TO HAVE THE AID TO UKRAINE AND ISRAEL UNBLOCKED.

AND YET NOW THE SENATE AND CERTAINLY THE HOUSE ARE NOT GOING TO PASS IT.

SO THIS IS WHAT FORMER VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE SAID TO ME ABOUT THIS PARTICULAR ISSUE, AND I WANTED TO GET YOUR TAKE AFTERWARDS.

>> YEAH.

>> NOW DONALD TRUMP SAYS, OH, NO, NO, DON'T DO THAT BECAUSE THE WORSE THINGS ARE, THE BETTER MY CHANCES IN THE ELECTION.

SO DON'T SOLVE THIS CRISIS.

IF YOU BALANCE THE INTERESTS OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AGAINST THIS PETTY POLITICAL DESIRE TO HAVE A DISASTER TO ENHANCE THE ELECTION RESULTS, THAT'S A PRETTY EASY CHOICE TO MAKE, ISN'T IT?

>> SO WHAT IS YOUR TAKE?

DO YOU THINK THE REPUBLICANS WILL BE BLAMED FOR SCUTTLING A BORDER DEAL, AN IMMIGRATION DEAL THAT WAS VERY KIND TO THE CONSERVATIVES AS IT'S BEEN -- YOU KNOW, AS IT'S BEEN REPORTED OR NOT?

>> I THINK IT'S REALLY IMPORTANT FOR POLITICAL OBSERVERS ABROAD TO UNDERSTAND THAT THE REPUBLICANS ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPERATING IN A PLACE BASED ON POLLING AND STRATEGY.

THEIR LEADER IS AN IMPULSIVE, OUT OF CONTROL, YOU KNOW, DIMINISHED FIGURE.

AND I THINK WHAT YOU'RE SEEING IS THIS A SIGN OF DESPERATION FOR THEM.

THEY KNOW THAT HE'S DAMAGED GOODS.

THEY HAVEN'T BEEN PERFORMING WELL IN THE ELECTIONS.

THEIR PARTY IS BROKE AND OUT OF MONEY.

THEY'RE HAVING ENORMOUS ISSUES WITH THE OPERATIONS OF THE PARTY.

HE'S GETTING CRUSHED IN THE COURTS RIGHT NOW, AND SO I THINK THIS IS A SIGN OF DESPERATION BECAUSE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE THE REPUBLICANS HAVE RIGHT NOW IS THAT ALL THEIR MAJOR TALKING POINTS AGAINST JOE BIDEN, THE ECONOMY WAS TERRIBLE.

THAT'S NOT TRUE.

INFLATION'S TOO HIGH, THAT'S NO LONGER TRUE.

CRIME IS RISING, THAT'S NOT TRUE.

HE'S WAGED A WAR ON ENERGY, THAT'S NOT TRUE.

THE CORE INDICTMENTS ON BIDEN HAVE ALL EVAPORATED BECAUSE OF BIDEN'S SUCCESS AS PRESIDENT.

SO WHAT THEY WERE LEFT WITH WAS THIS BORDER STUFF, AND NOW THEY'VE ACTUALLY DONE SOMETHING THAT I THINK IS INCREDIBLE, WHICH IS THEY'RE GOING TO BE CAMPAIGNING ON THIS IDEA THEY WANT MORE IMMIGRANTS TO COME INTO THE COUNTRY, THE BORDER BEING IN CHAOS AND THEY WANT PUTIN TO WIN IN RUSSIA.

GOOD LUCK TRYING TO RUN ON THAT PLATFORM IN THIS COUNTRY.

IT'S AN ABSURDITY.

THIS AREA WHERE THEY HAD AN ADVANTAGE OVER US, THEY'RE BLOWING IT AND GIVING US THE ABILITY TO BLUDGEON THEM ON AN ARGUMENT.

NOTHING YOU'RE WITNESSING HERE COMING FROM THE REPUBLICAN PARTY RIGHT NOW IS FROM STRENGTH AND POWER AND CONFIDENCE.

IT'S DESPERATION.

THEY'RE WEAK, THEY'RE LOSING THE ELECTION, IN MY VIEW, OR WILL LOSE THE ELECTION.

AND THEY'RE START TG DO CRAZY THINGS.

AND SO IT'S -- THAT'S HOW I SEE THIS PLAYING OUT.

I AM SHOCKED AT WHAT THE REPUBLICANS HAVE DONE IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

THEY'VE COME OUT AGAINST THE BORDER.

YOU KNOW, THE BORDER UNION WHICH IS A CORE RIGHT WING PART OF THEIR COALITION HAS COME OUT FOR THE DEAL.

"THE WALL STREET JOURNAL" TODAY EDITORIAL PAGE CAME OUT FOR THE SENATE DEAL.

THEY'RE NOW GOING UP AGAINST CORE PARTS OF THEIR COALITION.

AND THIS IS WHY I THINK THE LAST THING I'LL SAY ABOUT THIS IS I THINK THE WAY TO THINK ABOUT WHAT WE'RE SEEING IN THE EARLY DAYS IS THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS SPLINTERING IN THE UNITED STATES, THE COALITION IS SPLINTERING.

THE NON-MAGA PART OF THE PARTY WHICH IS 20, 30%, DIDN'T GO ALONG WITH TRUMPY REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES IN 2022.

THEY DIDN'T GO ALONG WITH TUMP TRUMPY REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES IN 2023, AND I THINK THEY'RE GOING TO REALLY STRUGGLE TO GO ALONG WITH THIS SUPER TRUMPY CANDIDATE IN 2024.

>> AND JUST FINALLY SO THAT IT DOESN'T SOUND TOO POLLIANISH YOU SAID WORK HAS GOT TO BE DONE AND BIDE HAS SAID WORK HAS GOT TO BE DONE.

THERE IS A FEELING THE MESSAGE YOU'RE ARTICULATING IS NOT BEING ARTICULATED BY HIS PEOPLE, BY HIM YET EVEN TO THE POINT HE'S GOING TO SIT OUT AN INCREDIBLE EXPOSURE AND THAT IS THE SUPER BOWL INTERVIEW WHERE PRESIDENTS USUALLY, YOU KNOW, GET THEIR CHANCE TO HAVE A PRETTY FRIENDLY INTERVIEW.

>> SO I WILL JUST SAY THAT I THINK THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN IS NOT AS FAR ALONG AS THINK MANY OF US WOULD LIKE AND THAT GIVEN THE GRAVITY OF THIS ELECTION AND GIVEN TRUMP'S CAPACITY TO CREATE NOISE AND DISTRACTION AND DICTATE THE DAILY DISCOURSE IN THE UNITED STATES, WE'RE GOING TO HAVE BE VERY LOUD AND AGGRESSIVE.

I WORKED IN THE CLINTON WAR ROOM IN '922, AND I WAS TRAINED AS A YOUNG INFORMATION WARRIOR AS WE CALL IT IN OUR POLITICS.

AND WE'RE UP AGAINST A VERY LOUD AND NOISY MACHINE ON THE OTHER SIDE, AND WE'VE GOT TO START GETTING LOUD AND BEING AGGRESSIVE.

AND I THINK THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN IS SLOWLY, YOU KNOW, GETTING TO THE POINT WHERE IT NEEDS TO BE.

I DON'T THINK THEY'RE GOING TO BE FULLY UP AND RUNNING FOR ANOTHER 6 TO 8 WEEKS, WHICH I KNOW IN OUR COUNTRY ENTIRE COUNTRY IS 6 TO 8 WEEKS.

I THINK BIDEN HAS A VERY STRONG CASE FOR RE-ELECTION.

I THINK WE ASSUME WE'RE GOING TO HEAR THE BEGINNINGS OF THE SECOND TERM AGENDA IN THE "STATE OF THE UNION" IN EARLY MARCH.

AND YOU PUT BIDEN UP THE SLOW AND STEADY LEADERSHIP, WORKHORSE, NOT A SHOW HORSE, CLEARLY MADE THE COUNTRY BETTER AGAINST THIS WILD, UNFIT, YOU KNOW, CRAZY PARTY MY VIEW IS HAVING DONE THIS NOW FOR MORE THAN 30 YEARS, WE SHOULD WIN THIS ELECTION IN 2024.

WE SHOULD FLIP THE HOUSE.

THE SENATE WILL BE UP FOR GRABS UNTIL THE VERY END, BUT I'M VERY BULLISH IN OUR CHANCES THIS YEAR.

>> REALLY INTERESTING PERSPECTIVE.

SIMON ROSENBERG, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST, THANK YOU SO MUCH.

AND WHEN WE TALK ABOUT LEADERSHIP WE GO NOW TO THE WAR IN GAZA WHERE U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE ANTONY BLINKEN CONTINUES HIS SHUTTLE DIPLOMACY THROUGH THE MIDDLE EAST TRYING TO REACH A CEASE-FIRE AND A HOSTAGE DEAL BETWEEN ISRAEL AND HAMAS.

HE'S NOW IN QATAR WHERE A PRESS CONFERENCE THE PRIME MINISTER SAYS HAMAS HAS GIVEN A POSITIVE RESPONSE TO A FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT.

AND HERE'S WHAT BLINKEN SAID IN RESPONSE TO THAT.

>> TOGETHER WITH QATAR AND EGYPT, WE PUT FORWARD AS YOU KNOW A SERIOUS PROPOSAL THAT WAS AIMED AT NOT SIMPLY REPEATING THE PREVIOUS AGREEMENT BUT EXPANDING IT.

AS THE PRIME MINISTER JUST SAID HAMAS RESPONDED TONIGHT.

WE'RE REVIEWING THAT RESPONSE NOW AND I'LL BE DISCUSSING IT WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF ISRAEL TOMORROW.

THERE'S STILL A LOT OF WORK TO BE DONE, BUT WE CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THAT AN AGREEMENT IS POSSIBLE AND INDEED ESSENTIAL.

>> HAMAS HAS ALSO PUT OUT A LONG STATEMENT SAYING THAT IT HAS DEALT WITH THE PROPOSAL IN, QUOTE, A POSITIVE SPIRIT.

MEANWHILE, IT ALSO ANNOUNCED THAT A SENIOR COMMANDER WAS KILLED OVER THE WEEKEND IN AN ISRAELI AIR STRIKE ON A PROPERTY IN DIER AL BALAH IN THE CENTER OF THE GAZA STRIP ALONG WITH 13 MEMBERS OF HIS FAMILY.

OUR CORRESPONDENT, NADA BASHIR, HAS MORE ON THE FIGHTING IN THIS AREA WHERE MORE CIVILIANS WERE KILLED IN A SEPARATE ATTACK ON A MOSQUE.

AND WE KNOW, OF COURSE, THERE IS A HUMANITARIAN DISASTER THERE AND CACLIMBING DEATH TOLL, AND YOU'LL FIND SOME OF THESE IMAGES DISTURBING.

>> SURROUNDED BY CHAOS AND PANIC, THE WOUNDED LAY QUIET.

THIS LITTLE GIRL'S PAIN MASKED BY SHOCK.

IT IS ALL TOO MUCH.

THIS MOTHER SHIELDS HER CHILD'S EYES FROM HORROR.

TELLING HIM, "DON'T LOOK."

IN THE MORGUE OF THE HOSPITAL THE BODIES OF THOSE WHO DID NOT SURVIVE LAY SHROUDED ON THE GROUND.

THE TILES BENEATH STILL BLOODIED.

A DOCTOR AND EYEWITNESSES SAY AT LEAST 14 PEOPLE WERE KILLED AS A RESULT OF A SERIES OF AIR STRIKES BY THE ISRAELI MILITARY ON THIS MOSQUE IN DIER AL BALAH IN CENTRAL GAZA.

IN RESPONSE TO QUESTIONS FROM CNN, THE ISRAELI MILITARY SAYS IT TAKES FEASIBLE PRECAUTIONS TO MITIGATE CIVILIAN HARM IN ITS WAR ON HAMAS.

LOCALS HERE ARE LEFT TO SIFT THROUGH THE RUBBLE, RETRIEVING FRAGMENTS OF BODIES.

THOSE KILLED SAID TO HAVE BEEN LEAVING THE MOSQUE FOLLOWING MORNING PRAYERS.

>> THIS NEIGHBORHOOD IS FULL OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN DISPLACED ALL TAKING SHELTER IN SCHOOLS.

KIERLY THERE'S NOWHERE SAFE ANYMORE, NOT OUR MOSQUES, NOT OUR SCHOOLS, NOT ON THE STREETS.

NOWHERE IN GAZA IS SAFE.

>> BUT JUST AS THERE IS NO ESCAPE FROM THE AIR STRIKES, IT SEEMS THERE IS ALSO NO ESCAPE FROM GRIEF.

THE FAMILIES OF GAZA'S LATEST VICTIMS OLD AND YOUNG LEFT TO SHARE IN THEIR UNENDING MOURNING.

ELSEWHERE IN THIS HOSPITAL IN CENTRAL GAZA AT LEAST 20 WOMEN AND CHILDREN HAVE ARRIVED SEEKING SAFETY.

FORCED TO FLEE ONCE AGAIN AFTER BEING ORDERED BY THE ISRAELI MILITARY TO EVACUATE THEIR SHELTER IN GAZA CITY.

>> Translator: THE ISRAELIS CAME AND SURROUNDED US WITH TANKS.

WE WERE NOT ABLE TO GO OUT.

THERE WAS NO FOOD, NO DRINKS, NO WATER.

WE WERE NOT EVEN ABLE TO TURN ON THE LIGHTS.

WE WERE SCARED THEY WOULD SEE THEY TOOK ALL THE MEN AND STARTED BEATING THEM.

THEY STRIPPED THEIR CLOTHES OFF AND TOOK THEM TO THE TANKS.

AFTER THAT, THEY TOLD ALL THE WOMEN TO GO DOWN TO THE BASEMENT AND THEY DEPLOYED EXPLOSIVES.

THEY WANTED TO LOCK US IN AND THEN BLOW UP THE WHOLE BUILDING.

THEY WANTED TO KILL US.

WE TOLD THEM THAT WE ARE CIVILIANS, THAT THERE ARE CHILDREN WITH US, THAT WE HAVE DONE NOTHING TO DESERVE THIS.

WE BEGGED THEM, AND THEN THEY AGREED TO LET US OUT.

>> TROUBLING ACCOUNTS LIKE THIS SHARED WITH CNN BY SEVERAL WOMEN FORCED TO FLEE CENTRAL GAZA.

THE ISRAELI MILITARY HAS ADMITTED IT IS DETAINING, QUESTIONING, AND STRIPPING PEOPLE IT HAS IDENTIFIED AS, QUOTE, TERROR SUSPECTS BUT SAYS THEY ARE TREATED IN ACCORDANCE WITH INTERNATIONAL LAW.

THE MILITARY DID NOT, HOWEVER, RESPOND TO QUESTIONS AROUND THE WOMEN'S OTHER ALLEGATIONS.

WHAT COMES NEXT FOR THESE FAMILIES AND FOR ALL IN GAZA IS UNCLEAR, BUT THERE IS LITTLE HOPE LEFT.

IN RAFAH NOW HOME TO MORE THAN A MILLION PALESTINIANS, TENT CITIES FOR THE DISPLACED CONTINUE TO GROW.

THIS REGION ONCE SAID TO BE A SAFE ZONE NOW FACING RELENTLESS AIR STRIKES.

ISRAEL'S DEFENSE MINISTER HAS WARNED THE TROOPS WILL SOON ENTER THE SOUTHERN CITY THEY SAY TARGETING TERRORIST INFRASTRUCTURE.

BUT THERE ARE DEEPENING FEARS OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR HUMANITARIAN CATASTROPHE AND THE LOOMING THREAT OF UNTOLD BLOODSHED IN THE SOUTH.

>> AND JUST A NOTE, SINCE HAMAS KILLED AND SLAUGHTERED 1,200 PEOPLE ON OCTOBER 7th INSIDE ISRAEL, CIVILIANS MOSTLY, THERE HAVE BEEN ACCORDING TO THE PALESTINIAN HEALTH AUTHORITIES 27,000 PALESTINIANS KILLED SINCE OCTOBER 7th.

NOW, WE TURN TO WIDER REGIONAL TENSIONS.

YEMEN'S HOUTHI LEADER VOWS FURTHER ESCALATION IF THE WAR ON GAZA DOESN'T STOP.

THEY CLAIM THEIR ATTACKS ON RED SEA SHIPPING ARE IN SOLIDARITY WITH THE PALESTINIAN PEOPLE THERE AND CONTINUED U.S. AND U.K.

STRIKES HAVE NOT DETERRED THEM.

THE HOUTHIS CERTAINLY HAVE EXPERIENCE IN WEATHERING THESE STRIKES UNDER YEARS OF A SAUDI-LED CAMPAIGN AGAINST THEM.

HISHAM KNOWS THIS GROUP VERY WELL BECAUSE IN 2017 THEY DETAINED HIM IN THE CAPITAL SANA AND HELD HIM FOR MONTHS.

HE'S JOINING US NOW WITH SOME ANALYSIS FROM WASHINGTON, D.C.

WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.

BEFORE I ASK YOU ABOUT YOUR PARTICULAR, YOU KNOW, ENCOUNTER WITH THEM, TELL US A LITTLE BIT ABOUT WHO THE HOUTHIS ARE AND WHY AFTER NOW WEEKS OF ATTACKS AGAINST -- YOU KNOW, THEIR MILITARY INPLACEMENTS, IT HASN'T DETERRED THEM?

>> THANK YOU.

WELL, TO BEGIN WITH THE PHILIPPINES ARE A REBEL GROUP THEO CRATTIC POLICE STATE.

AND THEY'VE BEEN HOPING FOR THIS OPPORTUNITY, THIS CONFRONTATION WITH THE U.S. FOR A WHILE NOW.

THEY'VE BEEN CLAIMING THEY'VE BEEN FIGHTING THE COLONIAL IMPERIAL POWERS IN THE REGION, SO THIS ACTUALLY PROVIDED THEM WITH AN OPPORTUNITY.

IF ANYTHING IS ACTUALLY FUELING THEIR ANGER, IT'S ACTUALLY GALVANIZING THEM AND ALSO BECAUSE THE WEAPONRY IS DISPERSED ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS RANGES, AND THEY'RE ALSO LOCALLY PRODUCING SOME OF THOSE MISSILES.

YES, COMPONENTS ARE COMING FROM IRAN.

COMPONENTS ARE COMING FROM ELSEWHERE.

THE TRAINER IS COMING FROM HEZBOLLAH.

BUT AGAIN THEY HAVE THE LOCAL CAPACITY TO REBUILD AND RESTOCK THOSE PILES, SO WE ARE STUCK IN A LOOP OF TIT FOR TAT THAT CAN GO ON FOR A VERY LONG PERIOD OF TIME.

>> AND OF COURSE AFTER THE U.S.

STRIKES ON IRAQ AND SYRIA AND ON THE IRAN-BACKED MILITIAS THERE OVER THE WEEKEND, YOU KNOW, EVERYBODY'S TALKING ABOUT HOW MUCH CONTROL AND DIRECTION IRAN GIVES TO ITS PROXIES IN THE SO-CALLED AXIS OF RESISTANCE.

SO FROM YOUR EXPERIENCE, WHAT ARE THE RELATIVE, YOU KNOW, DEPENDENCIES OF THESE PROXIES ON IRAN?

>> I THINK THERE'S A BIT OF AN EXAGGERATION BECAUSE A LOT OF PEOPLE CLAIM IRAN HAS VERY STRONG CONTROL OVER THE HOUTHIS WHEN, IN FACT, THE HOUTHIS HAVE A LONGER LEASH.

THE HOUTHIS, YES, THEY'RE VERY WELL-BACKED BY THE IRANIANS.

THEY OWE THEIR RISE TO THE IRANIANS, BUT THE THING IS THEY HAVE THEIR OWN MIND-SET.

THEY FOLLOW THE SAME PLAY BOOK.

THEY ORGANIZE UNDER THE SAME AXIS OF RESISTANCE, BUT THEY HAVE THEIR OWN OBJECTIVES, THEIR OWN GOALS, AND THIS IS WHY THEY'VE BEEN BASICALLY EXPANDING WITHIN YEMEN.

THEY'VE BEEN ADOPTING THEIR OWN NARRATIVES, THEY HAVE THEIR OWN RELIGIOUS TONE AND RHETORIC, AND ALSO THEY HAVE THEIR OWN COMMAND AND CONTROL CENTERS THAT ARE DISPERSED ACROSS YEMEN, WHICH IS ALSO MAKING IT REALLY DIFFICULT FOR THE U.S. AND U.K. TO DEBILITATE THEIR MILITARY LOCALLY.

AGAIN, IRAN BACKS THE HOUTHIS, IT DOES NOT FULLY CONTROL THE HOUTHIS.

>> AND CAN I ASK YOU BECAUSE A LOT OF PEOPLE INCLUDING IN THE UNITED STATES ARE BUSY RECEIVING HOUTHI INFORMATION WAR PROPAGANDA, WHATEVER YOU WANT TO SAY TIKTOK VIDEOS AND THE LOT, THEY HAVE REALLY MANAGED TO PENETRATE IN THE REALLY INDISPENSABLE SPHERE, WHICH IS THE INFORMATION WAR.

HOW ON EARTH DID THAT HAPPEN FROM ONE OF THE MOST IMPOVERISHED AND, YOU KNOW -- I MEAN IT'S JUST -- YEMEN HAS BEEN THROUGH SO MUCH.

IT'S BEEN BOMBARDED.

IT'S TERRIBLY POOR.

ITS PEOPLE SURVIVE ON INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE.

HOW DOES THAT DEVELOP ONE OF THE MOST SOPHISTICATED PROPAGANDA MACHINES IN THIS WAR?

>> BECAUSE YOU HAVE TO REMEMBER YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT YEMEN, AND AS YOU MENTION WE'RE GOING THROUGH A HUMANITARIAN CRISIS.

ALMOST 80% OF THE POPULATION IS IN NEED OF AID.

THERE'S A HIGH LEVEL OF LITERACY, BUT ALSO IT'S A VERY TRIBAL AREA.

AND ON TOP OF THAT PEOPLE HAVE WENT THROUGH A DEVASTATING NINE-YEAR WAR.

GRIEVANCES ARE DEEP, EMOTIONS ARE HIGH.

HOUTHIS ARE ACTUALLY REALLY GOOD AT WEAPONIZING THOSE GRIEVANCES, AT BASICALLY PINNING EVERY YEMENI ISSUE, YEMEN'S WOES AGAINST EXTERNAL FOES AND WHERE IN A COUNTRY PEOPLE ARE NOT BIG FANS OF FOREIGN INTERVENTIONS.

IT IS VERY EASY TO MAKE THEM POWERLESS AROUND AND MAKE THEM FIGHT AGAINST THE FOREIGN INVADER IF YOU WILL, THE COLONIAL IMPERALISTS.

AND THIS IS WHY THE HOUTHIS WERE VERY GOOD AT BASICALLY PAINTING THE U.S., THE U.K. AS THEY CALL IT THE GREATEST SATAN AND PITCHING THEMSELVES AS THE VANGUARDS OF THE MUSLIM AND ARAB NATION.

THE EVENTS IN GAZA ACTUALLY FUELED KIND OF THAT NARRATIVE BECAUSE NOW FOR THE YEMENIS BEING BOMBARDED OF THE IMAGES COMING OUT OF GAZA WITH WOMEN, CHILDREN SUFFERING AND DYING THE HOUTHIS ARE TURNING OUT UNTIL THE YEMENIS SEE WHAT THE WEST IS DOING, THIS IS THE REFACE OF THE WEST, COME AND FIGHT AGAINST THESE IMPERIALISTS, AGAINST THESE COLONIALS, AND OF COURSE THEY KIND OF ADD SOME RELIGIOUS TEXT, SOME VERSES TO IT AS WELL TO HEIGHTEN THOSE EMOTIONS AND GALVANIZE SUPPORT AND ALSO RECRUIT -- ENHANCE RECRUITMENT DRIVES.

AND THAT WORKED VERY WELL FOR THEM.

>> YEAH, AS YOU KNOW BETTER THAN I DO, THERE IS A MASSIVE UNRESOLVED FIGHT BETWEEN THE HOUTHIS AND THE OTHER GROUP, WHICH IS THE INTERNATIONALLY RECOGNIZED GROUP.

AND HOW DID YOU RUN AFOUL OF THE HOUTHIS WHO YOU WERE IN YEMEN AND WHAT HAPPENED TO YOU?

WHAT KIND OF PEOPLE ARE THEY?

WHAT KIND OF AN OPPOSITION WERE THEY BEFORE ALL OF THIS?

>> THE HOUTHIS ARE REALLY GOOD AT CAPTURING OPPORTUNITIES.

THE WAY THEY ACTUALLY CAME INTO SANA AND HIJACKED THE GOVERNMENT WAS RIDING ON A POPULAR ARRAY OF DISCONTENT.

WE HAVE A LOT OF ISSUEWISE THE GOVERNMENT, A LOT OF NEPOTISM, CORRUPTION.

THE HOUTHIS CAME IN AND PROMISED STRUCTURAL FORM.

BUT WHEN THEY CAME IN, THEY BECAME THE VERY MONSTER THEY PROMISED TO FIGHT AGAINST.

AND THEY BECAME A VERY OPPRESSIVE REGIME.

AND WHEN THEY TOOK OVER THEY PROMISED EQUALITY, THEY PROMISED TO FIGHT POVERTY, BUT THEY ACTUALLY BROUGHT OVER POVERTY.

THEY ACTUALLY BROUGHT OVER CRIME.

THEY ACTUALLY BROUGHT OVER REPRESSION.

AND WHEN I WAS IN SANA, AND I WAS BASICALLY KIND OF POINTING OUT TOWARDS FACTS LIKE WE ARE SUFFERING, 80% OF THE POPULATION IS SUFFERING BUT THE HOUTHIS ARE EATING WELL.

THEY ARE DRIVING ROLLS ROYCES, THEY ARE LIVING LAVISHLY, AND I GOT MULTIPLE WARNINGS FROM THE HOUTHIS AND THEIR FOLLOWERS THAT I SHOULD KEEP MY MOUTH SHUT, THAT I SHOULD ALSO FOCUS ON THE SAUDI-LED COALITION BECAUSE THE SAUDI LED COALITION WAS COMMITTING A LOT OF CRIMES ALSO IN YEMEN WITH THE BOMBARDMENT OF SCHOOLS, ORPHANAGES, BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE.

BUT I I ALSO WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THE ISSUES WITH THE HOUTHIS, AND THAT DID NOT SIT WELL WITH THEM.

THEY TOLERATED FOR A WHILE, BUT UNFORTUNATELY BASICALLY KIDNAPPED ME AND DISAPPEARED.

THIS IS THE THING, EVERYBODY'S FOCUSING ON THE HOUTHIS AND WHAT THEY'RE DOING COMING TO THE DEFENSE OF GAZA, WHICH IS FINE.

BUT THE THING THAT DOES NOT -- BASICALLY SHOULD NOT WHITEWASH WHAT THE HOUTHIS HAVE DONE AND CONTINUE TO DO, THE HOUTHIS ARE AGAIN RIDING A POPULAR WAVE OF DISCONTENT NOW NOT JUST LOCALLY REGIONALLY WITH THE EVENTS IN GAZA, WITH THE LACK OF ACTION IN GAZA.

BUT WHAT PEOPLE NEED TO UNDERSTAND THEY ALSO HAVE THEIR OWN ULTERIOR MOTIVES, THEIR OWN AGENDAS AND TRYING TO ACHIEVE THEIR OWN GOALS.

IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT COMING TO THE AID OF GAZA.

>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH, INDEED, FOR THAT ANALYSIS.

>>> TURNING NOW TO A BRUTAL PRACTICE STILL CARRIED OUT AROUND THE WORLD INCLUDING IN YEMEN, FEMALE GENITAL MUTILATION.

THIS IS INTERNATIONAL DAY OF ZERO-TOLERANCE FOR FGM, AND WE'RE FOCUSING ON SIERRA LEONE WEST AFRICA WHERE MORE THAN 80% OF WOMEN AND GIRLS HAVE GONE THROUGH IT.

BUT IN THIS REPORT CORRESPONDENT DAVID McKENZIE MEET AN ACTIVIST TRYING TO CHANGE THAT.

AND OF COURSE WE KNOW VIEWERS MAY FIND SOME OF THESE IMAGES DISTURBING.

>> ACROSS SIERRA LEONE THERE'S A HIDDEN HORROR.

WHAT'S HAPPENING?

>> WE ARE GOING TO KAMBIA.

THERE IS AN INCIDENT OF A YOUNG GIRL THAT DIED AFTER.

>> WE'RE TRAVELING WITH ACTIVIST RUGIATU TURAY.

HER LIFE'S WORK IS ENDING FEMALE GENITAL MUTILATION OR FGM.

TRADITIONALLY IT'S KEPT SECRET TO THE INITIATION OF THE ALL FEMALE BONDO SOCIETY, A SOCIETY THAT IS A RITE OF PASSAGE FOR GIRLS AND YOUNG WOMEN, WHERE THEY ALSO LEARN VALUABLE SKILLS FROM MEMBERS.

>> SOMEBODY GRABBED ME FROM THE BACK AND THEY SEE ME NAKED.

>> TURAY WAS EXCITED ABOUT JOINING THE BONDO SOCIETY.

WHEN SHE WAS JUST 11 SHE LEARNED THE TRUTH.

>> I FELT THE SHARP CUTS.

I STARTED FIGHTING.

AND WHEN I WOKE UP I SAW MY SISTERS, THE TWO OF THEM ON THE FLOOR BLEEDING.

I COULD NOT WALK FOR SEVEN DAYS BECAUSE I LOST SO MUCH BLOOD.

>> DID YOU ALREADY THINK THEN THAT THIS SHOULD STOP?

>> IT WAS FROM THAT EXPERIENCE I STARTED TALKING TO MY FRIENDS.

>> GOOD MORNING, GOOD MORNING.

>> TALKING TO ANYONE WHO WOULD LISTEN.

>> JUST YESTERDAY WE GOT THIS INFORMATION ABOUT THIS 13-YEAR-OLD GIRL.

>> IN THE HOLDING CELLS THE GIRL'S OWN MOTHER.

POLICE ARRESTED HER AND HER GRANDMOTHER.

ARRESTS LIKE THESE IN SIERRA LEONE ARE EXTREMELY RARE.

IN THE VILLAGE WHERE SHE DIED MOST HAVE FLED AFRAID OF THE POLICE, AFRAID OF THE CONSEQUENCES.

SHE WAS JUST 13.

POLICE BELIEVE SHE BLED TO DEATH.

SHE'S BEEN HERE ALONE FOR FOUR DAYS.

>> WHEN I WENT INSIDE AND SAW MY DAUGHTER'S BODY, I FELT DEVASTATED, SAYS HER FATHER.

I DIDN'T FEEL GOOD.

I'M CONFUSED.

THE STENCH IS ALL OVER HERE.

>> WHY DO PARENTS STILL CONTINUE TO SUBJECT THEIR CHILDREN TO THIS PAIN?

PARENTS THAT I KNOW LOVE THEIR CHILDREN SO MUCH, AND THEY ALWAYS PROTECT THEM.

>> AND WHY DO THEY?

>> THEY LOOK AT THE CUTTING AS BEING THE BONDO ITSELF.

>> TO SEPARATE THE TWO, TURAY AND HER ORGANIZATION GO VILLAGE TO VILLAGE.

SHE TARGETS SOWEI PAID TO CUT, CONVINCING THEM TO PUT DOWN THEIR LIVES AND LEAD BLOODLESS BOUNDLESS CEREMONIES.

TURAY HAS SUCCEEDED WHERE FOR DECADES INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS HAVE FAILED.

>> YOU CANNOT FIGHT SOMETHING YOU ARE NOT PART OF.

I AM PART OF THE COMMUNITY.

I KNOW WHAT THEY DO.

I KNOW.

I TALK OUT OF EXPERIENCE.

THEY UNDERSTAND ME.

I UNDERSTAND THEM.

>> I RUN AWAY BECAUSE MY MOTHER AND MY AUNT WANTED ME TO -- >> IT'S STILL UP TO BRAVE YOUNG WOMEN TO RESIST THE SOCIAL PRESSURE AND TO CONVINCE OTHERS AS WELL.

BUT THE U.N.

STILL ESTIMATES MORE THAN 80% OF WOMEN AND GIRLS HAVE GONE THROUGH FGM HERE.

>> IT'S A TRADITION.

I SAY THIS TRADITION IS VERY WICKED.

THIS IS A WICKED TRADITION.

>> IT'S A HUGE MOUNTAIN TO CLIMB STILL.

DO YOU THINK YOU CAN CLIMB THAT MOUNTAIN?

>> IN SIERRA LEONE WE'VE GONE TOO FAR CLIMBING THE YEARS.

>> GOING FAR BUILDING SCHOOLS TO EDUCATE AND EMPOWER YOUNG GIRLS, HELPING SOWAYS LEAD THE CHARGE TO A BETTER TRADITION, CELEBRATING PROTECTING THEIR DAUGHTERS AND SISTERS.

>> WE WILL CLIMB THE MOUNTAIN, AND ALL OF US WILL BE AT THE MOUNTAINTOP TO SAY FGM HAS AIMED, IT IT WILL END IN OUR GENERATION AS WE SPEAK.

>> DAVID MACKENZIE THERE WITH SUCH AN IMPORTANT STORY.

AND AS WE KNOW FGM STILL CONTINUES EVEN IN THE WEST IN SOME LOCAL COMMUNITIES.

AND THERE'S A BIG BATTLE BY ACTIVISTS TO STOP IT.

>>> NEXT, HOW DOES RANDOMNESS SHAPE OUR LIVES FROM THE PERSONAL TO THE GEOPOLITICAL?

BRIAN CLASS, A POLITICAL SCIENTIST AND PROFESSOR AT UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON IS THE AUTHOR OF THE NEW BOOK "FLUKE, CHANCE, CHAOS, AND WHY EVERYTHING WE DO MATTERS."

WALTER ISAACSON SPEAKS WITH HIM ON WHAT CHAOS THEORY CAN TEACH US ABOUT THE WAY THE WORLD REALLY WORKS.

>> THANK YOU, CHRISTIANE.

AND BRIAN CLOSS, WELCOME TO THE SHOW.

>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME HERE.

>> YOUR NEW BOOK IS CALLED "FLUKE" SUBTITLED CHANCE, CHAOS, AND WHY EVERYTHING WE DO MATTERS.

LET'S START BY JUST EXPLAINING WHAT IS A FLUKE?

>> A FLUKE IS A HIGHLY CONSEQUENTIAL EVENT THAT HAPPENS BY CHANCE OR IS ARBITRARY OR RANDOM.

AND SO I ARGUE IN THE BOOK THAT OUR WORLD IS SHAPED BY THESE AND OUR LIVES ARE SHAPED BY THESE MUCH MORE THAN WE IMAGINE, BUT WE JUST PRETEND OTHERWISE BECAUSE IT'S MUCH NICER TO IMAGINE WE HAVE NEAT AND TIDY STORIES TO MAKE SENSE OF OUR WORLD AND OUR OWN LIVES.

>> WELL, ONE EXAMPLE I THINK YOU USE IS THE ARAB SPRING, A TUNISIAN VENDOR.

EXPLAIN HOW THAT DOES THAT?

>> YOU'VE GOT SORT OF A MOMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST IN THE LATE 2010 WHERE THERE'S A LOT OF PEOPLE PRETTY ANGRY AT THEIR DICTATORSHIPS.

AND ALL OF A SUDDEN ONE OF THOSE ANGRY PEOPLE DECIDES TO LIGHT HIMSELF ON FIRE IN CENTRAL TUNISIA.

AND THIS PARK CREATES A CONFLAGRATION THAT BASICALLY CONSUMES THE ENTIRE MIDDLE EAST, LEADS TO SEVERAL REGIMES COLLAPSING, AND THEN ALSO THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR, WHICH HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE DIED IN.

AND SO WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THIS, YOU THINK ABOUT, YOU KNOW, WOULD THIS HAVE HAPPENED BUT FOR THIS TRIGGER IN TUNISIA.

AND I THINK THIS IS SORT OF THE WAY OUR WORLD WORKS IT'S PARTLY BETWEEN ORDER AND DISORDER WHERE YOU HAVE THESE TRENDS AND SORT OF ASPECTS WHERE YOU GET TOWARDS WHAT'S CALLED THE TIPPING POINT AND EDGE OF CHAOS.

AND THEN A SINGLE THING CAN TIP YOU OVER THAT EDGE AND CREATE AN EXTREMELY CONSEQUENTIAL EVENT THAT SHIFTS HOW THE WORLD WORK.

>> LET ME PUSH BACK AND TALK ABOUT THINGS WHICH YOU ADDRESS IN THE BOOK.

WHICH IS LET'S TAKE THE ARAB SPRING.

THE WORLD SEEMED READY FOR THAT.

AS YOU SAID ALL THE KINDLING WAS THERE FOR IT.

HAD THAT ONE TUNISIAN EVENT NOT HAVE HAPPENED, ISN'T IT LIKELY THERE STILL WOULD HAVE BEEN AN ARAB SPRING AND THESE RANDOM EVENTS DON'T ACTUALLY CAUSE THINGS?

THEY'RE JUST A TINY SPARK AMID THE OTHER SPARKS?

>> I DON'T THINK SO AND I THINK THE NATURE OF THE SPARK MATTERS AS WELL.

RIGHT?

SO THE VISCERAL NATURE OF THIS PROTEST DID CREATE PROTEST MOVEMENTS IN TUNISIA, AND THEN THOSE SPREAD FURTHER.

WHAT YOU ARE RIGHT ABOUT THERE'S THING CALLED SELF-ORGANIZED PHYSICALITY OR THE SAND PILE MODEL, WHICH I'M BORROWING FROM PHYSICS.

IF YOU IMAGINE ADDING A GRAIN OF SAND TO A PILE OVER AND OVER AND OVER, EVENTUALLY THAT PILE OF SAND GETS SO TALL THAT A SINGLE GRAIN CAN CAUSE AN AVALANCHE.

AND WHAT I'M ARGUING IS THAT IN THE ARAB SPRING CASE, FOR EXAMPLE, THE GRAIN OF SAND, THE SAND PILE WAS REALLY,ERALLIY TALL.

SO IT JUST TOOK THAT ONE EXTRA PERSON TO CAUSE THE COLLAPSE.

NOW, I THINK THERE'S A PROBLEM HERE BECAUSE I THINK WE HAVE DESIGNED A WORLD THAT IS PARTICULARLY PRONE TO THESE AVALANCHES BECAUSE THE SAND PILE IS EXTREMELY HIGH BY DESIGN.

AND WHAT I MEAN BY THAT IS THAT YOU HAVE THIS SORT OF SYSTEM THAT OPERATES WITH OPTMIZATION AND EFFICIENCY AS ITS MAIN PRIORITIES.

AND THIS MEANS WE HAVE NO SLACK IN THE SYSTEM.

SO, YOU KNOW, A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO A GUST OF WIND HIT A BOAT IN THE SUEZ CANAL AND TWISTED IT SIDEWAYS AND IT CAUSED OVER $50 BILLION OF ECONOMIC DAMAGE, WHICH WAS NEVER POSSIBLE FOR ONE BOAT TO DO IN THE PAST.

AND SO WHAT I THINK WE'RE DOING IS WE'RE BASICALLY CREATING A WORLD IN WHICH THOSE AVALANCHES, THOSE SPARKS AS I PUT THEM BEFORE ARE MORE CONSEQUENTIAL AND MORE LIKELY TO UPEND OUR SOCIAL LIVES.

>> SO IS THE PROBLEM THE SAND PILES THAT HAVE BECOME PRECARIOUS, OR IS THE PROBLEM THE ONE GRAIN OF SAND THAT HAPPENS TO COME IN?

>> SO IT'S BOTH, AND THEY COULDN'T EXIST WITHOUT EACH OTHER.

BECAUSE IF YOU HAVE SOMEBODY LIGHT THEMSELVES ON FIRE IN NORWAY TOMORROW IT'S NOT GOING TO CAUSE A REVOLUTION BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS SLACK AND PEOPLE ARE HAPPY, RIGHT?

NOW, IN THE MIDDLE EAST THERE ARE PEOPLE UNHAPPY WITH THE DICTATORSHIPS FOR A VERY LONG TIME, AND THERE WEREN'T MASS PROTESTS AND WEREN'T LARGE SCALE CIVIL WARS, AND ALL OF A SUDDEN THEY HAPPENED ALL AT ONCE.

I GO THROUGH THE EXAMPLE IN THE BOOK OF SOMETHING SIMILAR TO EXPLAIN THIS DYNAMIC OF THE ON SET OF WORLD WAR I WHICH MANY HISTORIANS HAVE DEBATED, AND I TALK ABOUT -- THE STANDARD STORY IS THE ASSASSINATION OF ARCH DUKE FRAND FUR NAND AND THAT'S THE FLUKE THAT TRIGGERS THE WAR.

NOW, OF COURSE YOU HAD TO HAVE ALL SORTS OF OTHER THINGS IN PLACE FOR THAT TO ACTUALLY HAPPEN, A SERIES OF ALLIANCES THAT MADE IT MORE LIKELY TO A SINGLE DEATH COULD ACTUALLY CREATE A WORLD CONFLICT.

BUT I ALSO TALK ABOUT IN THE BOOK HOW HE ALMOST DIED IN A HUNTING ACCIDENT MANY MONTHS BEFORE THAT WHEN HE WAS IN ENGLAND.

AND IF THAT HAD HAPPENED I DON'T KNOW IF WORLD WAR I WOULD HAVE STARTED, BUT I CERTAINLY DON'T KNOW IT WOULD HAVE HAPPENED IN THE SAME WAY.

I THINK WHAT WE OFTEN DO WE HAVE THESE BINARIES CATEGORIES, THE WAR STARTS OR THE IT DOESN'T.

WHAT I'M ARGUING IS THE WAY THE WAR STARTS IS IMPORTANT.

IF IT'S TRIGGERED BY ASSASSINATION OR IF THE GUY GETS KILLED IN AN ACCIDENT, IN A HUNTING ACCIDENT, THAT WILL AFFECT WORLD HISTORY.

I THINK INSTEAD WHAT WE TRY TO DO IS IMPOSE THESE STORYBOOK NARRATIVES HOW THE WORLD WORKS, AND THEY WRITE OUT THIS NOISE I THINK IS HIGHLY CONSEQUENTIAL IN THE WAY THE WORLD WORK.

>> ONE OF THE EXAMPLES YOU USE IS DONALD TRUMP BEING AT THE WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENTS DINNER AND BEING THE SUBJECT OF A BARACK OBAMA SCATHING COMIC ROUTINE, AND SO HE DECIDES TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT.

USING THAT TYPE OF, OKAY, THAT WAS FLUKE THAT HAD LOTS OF CONSEQUENCES, DOESN'T THAT HAVE A BIT OF A DANGER OF PEOPLE LIKE ME WHO WERE COVERING THINGS AT THE TIME, WE MISSED SOMETHING BIG IN THIS COUNTRY WHICH IS A DEEP RESENTMENT THAT WAS GOING TO LEAD TO SOMEBODY LIKE DONALD TRUMP AND FOR THAT MATTER DONALD TRUMP WAS SOMEHOW NEVER GOING TO GET IN THIS RACE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

DON'T WE MISS THE IMPORTANCE OF THE BIG FORCES WHEN WE LOOK FOR THE FLUKES?

>> YES, I AGREE WITH YOUR HIGHLIGHTS THERE BECAUSE ONE OF THE THINGS WE NEED TO BE AWARE OF IS HOW HIGH THE SAND PILE IS TO GO BACK TO THE ANALOGY.

ONE IS SOMETIMES THERE'S MUCH MORE ARBITRARY AND ACCIDENTAL FORCES THAT DO MATTER.

AND WE'RE CONSTANTLY TOLD TO FOCUS ON THE SIGNAL AND IGNORE THE NOISE.

AND THE ARGUMENT I'M MAKE SG THE NOISE ACTUALLY HAS PRETTY PROFOUND CONSEQUENCES FOR THE WAY THE WORLD WORK.

IT'S ALSO THINKING WHY WE MORE PRONE TO FLUKES THAN WE ARE IN THE PAST.

I THINK WE'VE UPENDED THE SITUATION IN THE WAY GLOBAL AFFAIRS USED TO WORK COMPARED TO HOW IT WORKS TODAY.

FOR EXAMPLE, WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE VAST STRETCH OF HUMAN HISTORY, MOST PEOPLE DEALT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THEIR DAILY LIFE.

THEY HAD TO DEAL WITH THE QUESTION OF HOW YOU FIND FOOD OR WHETHER YOU WERE GOING TO BE EATEN BY A SABER-TOOTH TIGER.

WE HAVE A WORLD WHERE STARBUCKS IS ALWAYS THE SAME BUT DEMOCRACIES ARE COLLAPSING AND RIVERS ARE DRYING UP.

AND I THINK BACK TO YOUR POINT, TO YOUR QUESTION IT'S SUGGESTING WE CREATED A WORLD WITH LESS SLACK, SO THAT YOU HAD THESE LONG-TERM TRENDS THAT CREATE WORLDS IN WHICH FLUKES CAN ACTUALLY HAVE HIGH CONSEQUENCES.

SO IF WE HAD DEALT WITH THE PROBLEM OF THE LINGERING RESENTMENT IN THE AMERICAN PUBLIC, THEN TRUMP MIGHT HAVE HAD A JOKE TOLD ABOUT HIM, HE WOULD HAVE RUN FOR OFFICE AND HE WOULD HAVE GOTTEN 0% OF THE VOTE.

I THINK THE COMBINATION OF ORDER AND DISORDER, FLUKES AND TRENDS, THEY'RE THE WAY THE WORLD ACTUALLY WORKS.

I THINK WE TEND IS TO FOCUS ON THE BIG EXPLANATIONS, THE LONG-TERM EXPLANATIONS FOR SOCIAL CHANGE.

AND I THINK THESE PIVOT POINTS THAT CAN START WITH A JOKE DO ACTUALLY DO CHANGE THE WORLD.

>> YOU SAY THAT ONE OF THE MISTAKES WE MAKE IN LOOKING AT HISTORY IS THAT WE IMPOSE -- I DON'T KNOW TO USE THE WORD IMPOSE BUT WE HAVE A NEGATIVE ARC AND THAT LEADS TO NEGATIVE THEORIES.

EXPLAIN TAT TO ME.

>> HUMANS ARE BASICALLY PATTERN MACHINES.

WE EVOLVE TO HAVE BRAINS THAT LATCH ONTO PATTERNS, AND THAT'S BECAUSE HAVING A FALSE POSITIVE WHERE YOU THINK THERE MIGHT BE A SABER-TOOTH TIGER LURKING IN THE GRASS WHEN YOU SEE IT RUSTLING THAT'S NOT GOING TO LEAD TO YOUR DEATH.

BUT IF YOU HAVE A FALSE NEGATIVE WHERE THERE IS A PATTERN AND YOU DON'T DETECT IT, SO YOU SEE RUSTLING IN THE GRASS AND YOU DON'T THINK THERE'S A TIGER THERE, YOU WILL DIE.

SO EVOLUTION IS BASICALLY OVERENGINEERED OUR BRAINS TO BE SENSITIVE TO PATTERNS.

NOW, THIS RELATES TO CONSPIRACY THEORIES BECAUSE SOMETIMES RANDOM EVENTS HAPPEN.

AND ALSO SOMETIMES SMALL CHANGES CAN HAVE REALLY BIG IMPACTS, AND OUR BRAINS ARE BASICALLY ALLERGIC TO THAT LINE OF THINKING.

SO WHEN YOU LOOK AT SOMETHING LIKE PRINCESS DIANA'S DEATH WHICH WAS A BIG MOMENT IN BRITISH HISTORY, THERE'S THIS SORT OF RESISTANCE TO THE IDEA THAT YOU HAVE, YOU KNOW, A SMALL BANAL CAR ACCIDENT CAUSING THIS MAJOR EVENT IN GEOPOLITICS OR IN WORLD AFFAIRS.

THE SAME IS TRUE FOR QAnon.

WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT CONSPIRACY THEORIES LIKE QAnon, IT'S A STORY THAT MAKES SENSE IN A SORT OF HIDDEN TRUTH, A HIDDEN PATTERN THAT YOU CAN BE INDUCTED INTO.

AND THE DEBUNKERS, THE PEOPLE WHO TELL YOU FACTS ABOUT CONSPIRACY THEORIES, THEY'RE TELLING YOU THERE IS NO STORY.

OUR BRAINS ARE LIKELY TO GRAVITATE NOT JUST TO A STORY BUT A REALLY GOOD STORY.

I THINK THIS IS THE REAL DANGER ABOUT CONSPIRACY THEORIES IS WE TEND TO MAKE SENSE OF THESE SEEMINGLY UNRELATED DATA POINTS WITH A STITCHING TOGETHER THAT ENDS UP BEING A REALLY SEDUCTIVE CONSPIRACY THEORY.

IT'S ONE OF THE REASONS WHY THEY'RE SO STICKY.

ONE OF THE PROBLEMS WE HAVE IT'S SO HARD TO DEBUNK THEM BECAUSE ANIMAL, WHICH IS WHAT HUMANS ARE, IGNORE THE STORY, THERE IS NO STORY.

I THINK THAT'S ONE OF THE WAYS THAT IS MOST USEFUL TO THINK ABOUT THE PERSISTENCE OF THESE THEORIES THAT SWAY OUR POLITICS AND UNFORTUNATELY CREATES REAL WORLD ACTION BASED ON THE LIE.

>> WHEN IT COMES TO THE REACH OF CONSPIRACY THEORIES, HOW DOES THE U.S.

COMPARE TO THE REST OF THE WORLD?

>> THE U.S. HAS MORE OF A PROBLEM WITH CONSPIRACY THEORIES THAN OTHER PEER COUNTRIES.

AND THAT'S BECAUSE POLITICIANS HAVE POPULARIZED THEM MORE THAN OTHER PEER COUNTRIES.

I LIVE IN THE U.K., I'M FROM THE U.S., AND YOU SEE A MAINSTREAM OF CONSPIRACY THEORIES WITHIN THE POLITICAL PARTIES MORE IN THE UNITED STATES THAN IN THE REST OF EUROPE AND SO ON.

SO I THINK THIS IS DANGER THAT DOES EXACERBATE THE PROBLEM WHEN ELITES OR PEOPLE WHO ARE IN POLITICS START TO PEDDLE CONSPIRACY THEORIES AS A WAY TO WIN VOTES.

AND THAT IS A UNIQUELY AMERICAN AFUNAMNEN.

IT'S A PHENOMENON MUCH MORE PROMINENT TO THE UNITED STATES THAN OTHER PEER DEMOCRACIES.

>> HAS IT GOTTEN WORSE IN TERMS OF CONSPIRACY THEORIES, OR WAS IT NO WORSE THAN IT WAS DURING THE SALEM WITCH TRIALS?

>> WE'VE ALWAYS BEEN PATTERN DEDEKZ MACHINES.

THE DIFFERENCE IS HOW WE GET INFORMATION.

WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE INTERNET, I THINK THERE'S A REALLY PROFOUND SHIFT THE INTERNET HAS PRODUCED WHICH HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE.

EVERY OTHER FORM OF TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION AROUND INFORMATION HAS EXPANDED THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO CAN CONSUME INFORMATION.

SO THE PRINTING OF PRESS, THE RADIO, TELEVISION, ETSET WRAUSH ALL OF THAT CREATED A LARGER AUDIENCE.

BUT THE PEOPLE WHO COULD PRODUCE INFORMATION AND THEORIES ABOUT THE WAY THE WORLD WORKS WAS ACTUALLY PRETTY SMALL.

AND YOU HAD TO SEEK OUT CONSPEARICISM IN THE DISTANT PAST.

NOW YOU CAN SPREAD MISINFORMATION YOU HAVE THE PROLIFERATION OF CONSPIRACY THEORIES WE'RE EXPOSED TO MORE OFTEN AND ALGORITHMS THAT AMPLIFY THEM.

SO A PERSON WHO WOULD NOT HAVE SOUGHT OUT A CONSPIRACY THEORY IN THE PAST IS NOW BEING SHOWN ONE BY DESIGN FROM TECH ALGORITHMS AND SO ON.

I DON'T THINK IT'S WE'VE CHANGED, I THINK IT'S THE WAY OUR INFORMATION PIPELINES HAVE SHIFTED, AND THAT'S MADE THEM MORE INFLUENTIAL IN MODERN POLITICS.

>> ONE OF THE WAYS THAT PEOPLE THINK ABOUT HOW HISTORY CHANGES IS PARTLY GRAND FORCES, IT'S PARTLY THE WORLD OF PEOPLE, IT'S PARTLY AS YOU DO IN THIS BOOK THE WORLD OF FLUKE.

BUT ALSO AS YOU DESCRIBE IN THE BOOK THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY, SUDDENLY MOVING TYPE PRINTING COMES ALONG AND YOU CAN HAVE A RE-FORMATION IN EUROPE.

TELL ME HOW YOUR BOOK FITS INTO THE ROLE TECHNOLOGY IS CHANGING OUR LIVES.

>> TECHNOLOGY SAHUGE DRIVER IN OUR EXPERIENCE.

I THINK WHAT WE DON'T APPRECIATE IS THE TIMING.

WE TALKED ABOUT THE PRINTING PRESS AND HOW IT LOCKED IN THE LANGUAGE OF A SPECIFIC SNAPSHOT IN TIME, AND THE LANGUAGE HAS CHANGED ADLOT LESS SINCE THEN BECAUSE TECHNOLOGY SOLIDIFIED HOW THE WRITTEN WORD HAD TO BE PRINTED, RIGHT, IT BECAME STANDARDIZED.

I THINK ABOUT THIS A LITTLE BIT WITH THE PANDEMIC RIGHT NOW.

LET'S IMAGINE THE EXACT SAME VIRUS MUTATED IN WUHAN IN 1985.

THE ECONOMY WOULD HAVE BEEN RADICALLY DIFFERENT COMPARED TO HOW IT UNFOLDED IN THE 2020 PANDEMIC BECAUSE WORKING FROM HOME ON ZOOM WAS IMPOSSIBLE IN 1985, RIGHT, SO TECHNOLOGY IS ONE OF THESE THINGS THAT HAS THESE GRAND FORCES.

YES, THERE'S GOING TO BE INNOVATION AND SOME OF THEM ARE GOING TO HAPPEN REGARDLESS.

I THINK SOME INNOVATIONS ARE INEVITABLE.

FIRE WAS ALWAYS GOING TO BE DISCOVERED BY HUMANS.

THE TIMING MIGHT HAVE BIP A LITTLE DIFFERENT, BUT THE MOMENT OF THE DISCOVERY IS REALLY IMPORTANT AS IS THE PERSON WHO DISCOVERS IT.

I THINK, FOR EXAMPLE, SMART PHONES WOULD HAVE UNFOLDED A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY IF STEVE JOBS HAD NOT BEEN ONE OF THE PEOPLE WHO WAS BEHIND THEIR INNOVATION AND POPULARIZATION.

SO I THINK THERE'S A SORT OF INTERPLAY BETWEEN THESE GRAND FORCES, THESE INDIVIDUALS, THESE ACCIDENTS, AND THE MOMENTS WHERE THE ERAS IN WHICH THE TECHNOLOGY EMERGES.

AND ALL OF THEM MATTER.

I THINK IF YOU JUST HOLD ONE OF THEM CONSTANT YOU DON'T ACTUALLY HAVE THE EXACT SAME WORLD UNFOLD.

>> ONE OF THE GREAT TECHNOLOGICAL FORCES THAT'S ABOUT TO HIT US OR HAS ALREADY HIT US IS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ESPECIALLY PERSONAL A.I., WHERE EVERYTHING CAN BE PERSONALIZED.

I CAN USE CHAT BOT AND NEWS ORGANIZATIONS CAN OR PEOPLE TRYING TO RUN POLITICAL CAMPAIGNS CAN.

HOW IS THAT GOING TO FIT INTO YOUR THEORY?

>> YES, SO I THINK IT'S A DANGER.

AND THE REASON I THINK IT'S A DANGER IS YOU GO BACK TO THE PHILOSOPHER DAVID HUMES SEVERAL HUNDRED YEARS AGO, HE BASICALLY RAISED THIS PROBLEM HOW CAN YOU KNOW THE PATTERNS OF THE PAST ARE GOING TO BE PREDICTIVE OF THE PATTERNS OF THE FUTURE.

AND THAT WAS ALREADY SOMETHING PEOPLE WERE WORRIED ABOUT WITH REASON IN THE PAST.

NOW I THINK THEY HAVE EVEN MORE REASON TO BE WORRIED ABOUT IT BECAUSE OUR WORLD IS CHANGING SO QUICKLY.

AND YET A.I.

IS STILL TRAINING ON PAST PATTERNS, RIGHT?

THIS IS THE KIND OF STUFF MACHINE LEARNING IS DERIVED FROM TRAINING DATA AND SO THIS IS HOW THE WORLD WORKS.

THE PROBLEM IS YOU CAN START TO GET INTO TROUBLE, "A," IF YOU THINK YOU HAVE CERTAINTY IN AN UNCERTAIN WORLD, WHICH I THINK WE DO.

AND A.I.

DOESN'T SOLVE THAT PROBLEM.

AND "B," IF YOU THINK THE PAST PATTERNS ARE GOING TOBY PREDICTIVE OF THE FUCHER AND THE WORLD SHIFTS.

ALL OF US UNDERSTAND THIS IDEA INTUITIVELY BECAUSE A METEOROLOGIST WILL TELL US, OH, THERE WAS A HUNDRED-YEAR FLOOD AND WE SAY, OKAY, WHY IS THERE IS A HUNDRED-YEAR FLOOD THREE YEARS AGO.

IT'S BECAUSE THE PATTERNS HAVE SHIFTED.

IF A.I.

IS NOT POSSIBLE TO THIS PROBLEM I THINK WE CAN ENGINEER A WORLD OF FALSE CERTAINTY AND HUBRIS AROUND THESE NEW TOOLS THAT GETS US INTO A WORLD OF DANGER.

I THINK A.I.

IS GOING TO BE EXCEPTIONAL IN SOLVE PROBLEMS WHAT I CALL CLOSED SYSTEMS, MEDICAL FOR EXAMPLE.

IT MIGHT HAVE DANGERS EMBEDDED IT WHERE OPEN SYSTEMS OF THE PAST AND FUTURE ARE NOT ALIGNED ASKED THE TRAINING DATA OF THE PAST IS ACTUALLY MISALIGN WOULD THE UNDERLYING CAUSE AND EFFECT DYNAMICS IN A DIFFERENT WORLD THAT'S UNFOLDING AS WE SPEAK.

>> HOW CAN AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE ROLE OF FLUKES LEAD US TO HAVE A MORE RESILIENT SOCIETY?

LET ME EVEN ADD A MORE REVILIANT PERSONAL LIFE?

>> YEAH, I LIKE THIS QUESTION BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, I THINK DIFFERENTLY ABOUT THE WORLD AND MY OWN LIFE HAVING WRITTEN THIS BOOK.

IEST NOT THE SAME PERSON THREE YEARS AGO.

AND THE REASON FOR THAT IS BECAUSE I THINK -- YOU KNOW, I GREW UP IN THE U.S. WHERE I WAS SORT OF TOLD YOU HAVE TO SORT OF JUST MAKE YOUR OWN PATH, THE SORT OF INDIVIDUALIST MIND-SET, THE AMERICAN DREAM AND SO ON.

IT'S A CULTURE THAT IS EXTREMELY FOCUSED ON CONTROL, RIGHT?

AND I DESCRIBE IN THE BOOK HOW I WAS LIVING IN WHAT I DESCRIBE A CHECKLIST EXISTENCE.

AND I THINK WHEN YOU START TO THINK ABOUT THE ROLE OF THESE FORCES THAT ARE SOMETIMES ARBITRARY, ACCIDENTAL, AND RANDOM, AND ALSO THE CHAOS THEORY, THE RIPPLE EFFECTS OF OUR DECISIONS, IT STARTS TO LIBERATE YOU A LITTLE BIT, RIGHT?

IT STARTS TO MAKE YOU FEEL LIKE YOU KNOW WHAT, IT'S MAYBE OKAY IF I DON'T HAVE SO MUCH TOP DOWN CONTROL.

AND THAT'S WHAT I'VE INTERNALIZED AS A LESSON FROM THE BOOK.

IN TERMS OF SOCIETY I THINK THE MAIN LESSON IS RESILIENCEMISM I THINK WE HAVE THE TOOLS TO GIVE US THE ILLUSION OF CONTROL MORE THAN EVER BEFORE BECAUSE WE HAVE SO MUCH PREDICTABILITY AND STABILITY IN OUR DAILY LIVE THAT WE START TO THINK OUR WORLD IS ALSO STABLE, WHICH IN FACT IT'S THE OPPOSITE.

THE STABILITY IN OUR DAILY LIVES IS HAPPENING AT THE SAME TIME AS THE WORLD IS CHANGING FASTER AND MORE PROFOUNDLY THAN EVER BEFORE IN HUMAN HISTORY.

SO IN MY VIEW THIS IS SOMETHING WHERE POLITICIANS, ECONOMISTS, ET CETERA, NEED TO UNDERSTAND THEY ARE CREATING A WORLD WITHOUT SLACK.

AND THE FLUKES ARE ALWAYS GOING TO BE THERE.

SO INSTEAD OF IMAGINING THAT WE CAN HAVE THIS TOP DOWN CONTROL, I THINK WE HAVE TO HAVE A LITTLE BIT LESS HUBRIS AND ALSO CEPT THE LIMITS OF WHAT HUMANS CAN AND CANNOT CONTROL.

AND I THINK THAT'S TRUE FOR ORDINARY CITIZENS AS WELL AS FOR POLITICIANS WHO ARE CALLING THE SHOTS.

>> BRIAN CLOSS, THANK YOU SO MUCH.

>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME ON THE SHOW.

>> AND SO INTERESTING TO REFLECT HOW ALL THOSE SMALL CHANCE HAPPENINGS CAN ACTUALLY CHANGE OUR LIVES.

>>> AND FINALLY TONIGHT, SING ME A SONG SUSPENDED PIANO MAN.

NO, NO, THAT IS NOT BILLY JOEL.

IT'S THE SWISS PIAN AST ALAN ROSH HANGING 32-FEET ABOVE THE GROUND AS DAWN BREAKS IN MUNICH.

HE'S PERFORMING A PIECE THAT'S CALLED "WINTER SOLSTICE," WHICH HE PLANS ON DOING EVERY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE FOR MORE THAN 100 DAYS, CHANGING THE MUSIC A LITTLE EACH DAY TO REFLECT THE SOUNDS OF NATURE MOVING WITH THE SEASONS UNTIL FINALLY THE PIECE WILL BECOME "SUMMER SOLSTICE," WHEN OF COURSE IT'LL BE LIGHTER A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

MAKE SURE TO TUNE INTO THE SHOW LATER THIS WEEK TO OUR CATCH INTERVIEW WITH THE CAST OF THE HIT PLAY "KIM'S CONVENIENCE."

IT'S PERFORMING TO SELLOUT CROWDS AT THE PARK THEATER HERE IN LONDON AND HOPING OF COURSE FOR A WEST END RUN NEXT.

AND I'LL SPEAK TO ITS CREATOR AND STAR AS WELL AS HIS CAST MEMBERS JENNIFER KIM AND MILES MITCHELL.

WE'LL DISCUSS HOW THE PLAY WHICH BECAME A HUGELY SUCCESSFUL TV SITCOM IS STRIKING SUCH A CHORD WITH AUDIENCE AND HOW IT'S ALSO A STEP FORWARD FOR ASIAN REPRESENTATION IN THE ARTS.

>>> AND THAT'S IT FOR OUR PROGRAM TONIGHT.

IF YOU WANT TO FIND OUT WHAT'S COMING UP ON THE SHOW EVERY NIGHT SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER AT PBS.ORG/AMANPOUR.

THANK YOU FOR WATCHING AND GOOD-BYE FROM LONDON.