♪ opening music ♪ ♪ ♪ Gavin> Welcome to This Week in South Carolina.

I'm Gavin Jackson.

It's primary week.

And with that, the final days of the campaign trail, which we will recap in a moment.

But first, we have Winthrop University political science professor Dr. Scott Huffmon with us to talk about the latest findings from his Winthrop poll.

Scott, welcome back to This Week in South Carolina.

Huffmon> Happy to be here.

Thank you.

Gavin> So, Scott, your poll was in the field earlier this month between February 2nd and the 10th.

And when looking at the horse race for president, Donald Trump has a commanding lead, 36 point lead over former Governor Nikki Haley.

What stood out to you in your poll findings?

Was anything surprising to you?

Huffmon> Well, you know, first off, this was of likely voters, not just registered voters.

We did not poll Democrats and we can talk about that in a second, the potential crossover.

So these were Independents, Independents who lean Republican and Republicans who were absolutely certain, were very likely to show up.

It just showed how much Trump has solidified his lead in South Carolina.

You know, people wondered, is South Carolina like the rest of the country when it comes to Republicans?

Has Trump taken over the party?

It appears he is the dominant figure of the party.

You are no longer a RINO just for embracing the wrong policies.

Apparently you're a RINO for opposing Trump these days, Gavin> Or even an actual Democrat.

Huffmon> Right.

>> You know, it's like, it's fascinating to see a lot of the comparisons being thrown around out there right now in the media or on advertising, too.

But Haley has been barnstorming across the state on her bus tour in fact, we caught up with her last week, if folks watched that show, and she's increased her ad buy in the state to $6 million.

Other polls since yours have shown her getting closer to Trump, but it's still 22 points here, 30 some points there.

Is there any way she can close that gap, in your opinion?

Huffmon> Well, there's certainly avenues to close the gap.

Our poll, for example, showed that her greatest strength was among Independents.

So among Independents who are likely to turn out, when we were in the field, she was doing stronger.

So everything she can do to get those Independents who are on the fence about turning out, get them to the polls, that's going to help her.

And to the degree that there is crossover voting.

Now, let's be real.

Crossover voting is much less common than partisans make it out to be in general.

That said, it may happen more this election than in a typical primary.

And I don't know about Nikki Haley's actual campaign and those campaign funds, but political action committees associated with Nikki Haley have been reaching out directly to Democrats and people who have voted in Democratic primaries in the past, but not this Democratic primary, which would prevent them from voting in the Republican primary.

Gavin> And Scott, more on that line, too, when you look at how many folks turned out to vote in the February 3rd Democratic primary, not that many.

156,000 maybe voted for Biden.

So there's still a lot of Democrats or folks who vote in Democratic primaries on the table when you compare it to, 2020, for example.

So do you think that there might be an appetite to do that?

At the same time, these Democrats would be also hurting their chances in the fall, too, if they pick someone like Nikki Haley to run against Joe Biden.

Huffmon> Well, you know, you're absolutely right.

So in 2020, roughly 16% of the entire population showed up at the Democratic presidential primary, which was a good turnout.

This time, it was only about 4%.

So it was about a quarter of what it was before.

So there are a lot of fish in that pond to go after.

The question is, can the Haley team motivate them to show up?

Now, as you said, there is sort of the question about voting against their interest.

Haley has shown a little bit more strength against Biden in the general election.

Will they risk that versus are they more afraid of Trump actually getting the nomination and winning?

And let's be honest, to the degree that any Democrat or any Independent leaning Democrat shows up at the polls, they're not going to be voting for Nikki Haley.

They're voting against Donald Trump.

Gavin> Mm hmm.

And Scott, we...talked about not having those Democrats, those Independents in the survey and talking about this path forward.

But when you look at how the delegates are broken down in South Carolina, half of them are...relegated to the congressional districts to all seven of them.

And we have 50 delegates total.

So is there a way for her to win some delegates in South Carolina, which you have to win, like the 6th Congressional District or the 1st Congressional District?

The 6th, of course, the only Democratic district in the state, but the 1st very much a swing district, places like the 7th up in Myrtle Beach, the Pee Dee very red, hard to get as well as the upstate.

Huffmon> Yeah.

And, you know, for example, the 5th District, which our congressman in the 5th District, has actually endorsed Nikki Haley, but it's still very much Trump country along with the voters.

It's possible for her to pick up delegates, but, you know, with every victory, Trump gets that many more delegates.

And remember, he got all the delegates from Nevada because he participated in the caucus and there were no delegates awarded for the primary, which Nikki Haley participated in and lost to none of these candidates.

Gavin> Mm hmm.

Yeah, a lot of back and forth over all that stuff in Nevada, too.

But, Scott, when you look at Iowa, she lost to Trump by 32 points.

New Hampshire by 11 points.

If you had a crystal ball, I know you have a poll.

Polls are just a snippet in time.

When you look at Saturday, when you look at what's it going to look like after the polls close at 7:00?

what does she need to do to be considered successful here and what's, I guess, the other alternative?

Huffmon> Well, she certainly doesn't want to have an absolutely overwhelming massive loss.

It looks like she's doing everything she can to motivate on the fence voters and anti-Trump voters.

You know, she has motivated every pro Nikki Haley voter there is out there, and it's still coming up a little short.

So what she needs to do in these last few hours, these last few days before the primary itself, is get those folks who are genuinely afraid of another Trump administration that includes a lot of Democrats and a lot of liberals who, as you pointed out, didn't vote in the Democratic primary.

There was a much smaller turnout.

She's got to motivate the anti-Trump vote because the pro Nikki Haley vote has been with her the whole time.

It's getting out folks who are afraid of Trump.

Gavin> Mm hmm.

Scott, can you talk about what- We're talking about primary voters right now, very passionate, motivated folks.

Can you talk about the disconnect between primaries and general election voters?

Because a lot of times people keep seeing these numbers and they say, oh, you know, she's doing so well in these swing states.

That will be pivotal, for these guys to win, if Republicans want to take back the White House, but again, it's full steam ahead for the Trump train.

So what's the difference between primary voters and general election voters?

Huffmon> Well, even when you have an open primary system like we have, you got to think who goes out of their way on a Saturday or, you know, to go out and vote in a campaign that is not allocating actual power to a seat.

And it is the most passionate people within a party, the folks who are most engaged in that party and the folks who are most powerfully motivated by the policies of the more extreme wings of that party.

So all primaries and certainly caucuses even more so, you're likely to get folks who are more extreme on the spectrum.

In the general election, you're getting a lot of everybody.

So that includes a lot of moderates.

So you have this sort of schizophrenia, if you will, between the primary and the general election, where in the primary you have candidates running to the far right, running to the far left, saying I'm the most extreme, vote for me.

And then in the general election, they tend to run back towards the middle and say, no, no, no, I was just kidding.

I'm a moderate.

But, you know, that was definitely B.T., Before Trump.

In the A.T. world, After Trump, world, we don't know what that general election is going to look like.

Gavin> Hmm.

A lot to look forward to.

But speaking about the future, Scott, let's look beyond February 24th, the primary.

And, you know, I maintain that I think from what I've seen from Nikki Haley, what she's going to do, that she'll stick around until this delegate map doesn't add up.

And that delegate map won't be adding up until March 12th or the 19th, which is when Trump would reach about 1215 delegates, which is what you need to get the nomination.

But do you think that she will stick around?

I mean, also, if you look later in that month of March, we're going to see his first criminal court case going to trial.

Does she stick around trolling him?

I mean, she's still raising money.

She still has organization.

What do you see her future being at this point?

Huffmon> Sticking in.

Staying in to troll him after the the criminal cases go to trial is basically hanging your hat on the hope that somehow if he gets convicted, his own party's convention will disqualify him, which is very unlikely.

Now, if he gets nominated, all these things happen.

He runs against Biden and loses.

She will be the only 2028 candidate to be able to say, I told you so.

I stood in as long as humanly possible to give us every chance to win in 2024.

Now I'm your candidate in 2028, so there is a bit of motivation.

I don't know how much strategy you can put behind Trump being disqualified by his own party at the convention as a result of these court cases.

Gavin> Yeah, I asked her about that “I told you so” campaigning for 2020 at primary, and she said, We're not focused on anything besides right now, so but let's get that out there, too.

But, Scott, speaking of the convention, do you see a contested convention?

And you're saying not likely.

But what's...?

Huffmon> Well, it's not impossible.

I mean, you know, and again, so much of the party has become focused around Trump that you think of who is selected from the delegation to go to the convention, and it makes it that much more unlikely.

You know, you have people predicting a potential coup at the Democratic presidential primary.

And of course, all of these are fantastical.

It doesn't mean they're literally impossible, but they are unlikely.

Again, just like, you know, Bernie Sanders' supporters in 2016 tried to come in and, you know, they had virtually no delegates, virtually no power, but they tried to sort of mount this attempted coup against Hillary Clinton.

It's not to say that there won't be a similar contingent on the Republican side this time around, but the outcome of him winning the delegates and the convention saying, no, not you, we're changing our rules, are low.

Gavin> Yeah, because then you can also start looking into really tarnishing her brand, which I guess, you know, at this point in modern politics is probably really hard to do, tarnish your brand, because I feel we're doing that every day.

People are constantly finding new lows, but that would probably hurt her to really try and push that.

Huffmon> Right and then to lose, you know, if Trump wins, we know he can make up with his enemies.

I mean, you know, look at what Lindsey Graham said about him while he was first running.

And look at Lindsey Graham now, you know, as the biggest attack dog.

Look at Ted Cruz and who's now a big supporter of Donald Trump.

So it is possible for, you know, Nikki Haley, who's picked up her own nickname from Trump, which is, you know, I guess, a badge of honor.

It is possible for her to play make up if he wins.

And again, if he loses, she's in an I told you so position.

But as you pointed out, if she attempts to mount a coup at the convention and loses, then she will have been seen as going against the party fundamentally.

Gavin> Mm hmm.

Especially too when we look at a potential contested convention, which we're saying is remote.

But when you start looking back at what's going on with the Republican National Committee, too, with Ronna McDaniel being pushed out and Trump putting his people in, it makes it even less likely for that to happen.

Huffmon> Again, it appears that Trump is consolidating power within state political structures, national political structure, and the Republican Party nationally itself.

Gavin> It's wild to see, I mean, that's I mean, you know, the support and to have that kind of infrastructure is something else.

Huffmon> I mean, you know, think back when, you know, Jimmy Carter, an incumbent president, was very seriously challenged, even up to his own convention and how, you know, the Democratic Party wasn't centered around, you know, Jimmy Carter or nothing.

And you look at now how the Republican Party is slowly becoming consolidated around, We are the party of Trump.

Of course, you do have pushbacks like Nikki Haley, but we'll see, again between now and Super Tuesday how much power that subsegment of the party really has.

Gavin> But, Scott, if you have a convicted felon as your nominee and you're the party of law and order, I mean, isn't that a tough sell?

But I guess if you don't think that you know anything when it comes to the legal justice system doesn't matter because- Huffmon> It's not a tough sell, and I'll tell you why.

Look at evangelicals.

Evangelicals in 2014, 2015 didn't like this man who had been thrice divorced, cheated on all of his spouses.

They saw him as an immoral person, but they slowly got behind him.

The reason they got behind him is they don't see him as suddenly becoming moral like them, but they see him as somebody who is a fighter for what they believe in, a fighter for a way of life that they feel they are losing control of.

And they can look to the Bible and say, Well, God has chosen imperfect people in the Bible, like David, who had his mistress' husband murdered.

You know, Trump doesn't have to be perfect.

He just has to be the perfect fighter for us.

And so, you know, again, with every... subsegment of the party that doesn't seem to line up with Trump, naturally they can see someone who has done their bidding, essentially.

I mean, look at folks with the concerns about abortion and how he got members on the Supreme Court so they can easily line up behind Trump even if they don't seem like natural Trump allies within the party.

Gavin> I should really start rereading the Bible these days.

It's fascinating, but we'll speak of the Bible, we hear from- Huffmon> The book of Revelations.

Gavin> That's my favorite ending...

I like the beginning and the end.

But when you look at Nalin Haley, Nikki Haley's son, ...he mentioned... he has a nickname for Senator Tim Scott.

He calls him Judas because he changed.

You know, Nikki Haley appointed Tim Scott to the Senate ran against her, but then also decided to endorse Trump.

Not surprising there.

But what do you make of this discussion?

A lot of rumor mill, a lot of attention being paid to Senator Tim Scott.

We just saw him at the North Charleston rally for Trump.

It seems like he's getting more and more prominent.

Do you think he'll be a pretty good running mate or do you think he would be a running mate for Trump?

Huffmon> He is being considered because Trump has literally even mentioned him.

I think, in an interview.

I'm considering a lot of people, you know, talked about Tim Scott.

Whether or not this is an audition is a whole other question.

Trump actually pointed out something really interesting.

He said that Tim Scott was a better campaigner for Trump than for Tim Scott.

Tim Scott has always been known for his subtlety, his moderation of his comments, the thoughtfulness.

He's never come out as an attack dog to the degree he can do that and maybe bring moderate voters to the Trump side, but still be the cheerleader Trump demands.

Who knows?

Gavin> Yes, Scott, Because that makes me think, you know, we look at these general election matchups, these hypothetical matchups, and that's what Haley really talks about, trying to go toe to toe with Biden.

But if you have someone like Tim Scott on your ticket, too, that really changes the whole calculus.

Huffmon> Well it helps.

You know, vice presidents are not nearly as important as they were much earlier in our republic.

It used to be really important to get a vice president from a certain region that your president wasn't from, and that is no longer the case.

But ideological balancing has been the case.

I mean, Barack Obama had zero experience on international relations.

That's why he picked Joe Biden, who was, you know, well known at the time for his experience in international affairs.

So skill set and ideological balancing does seem to be the rule of the day.

And if that's the case, if Trump's folks are thinking strategically that way, Tim Scott would be a good balance.

Gavin> We'll have plenty more to talk about on Saturday night from 7 to 9 p.m. on ETV.

We'll be doing live analysis after the polls close for the primary.

So Scott Huffmon with Winthrop University, thank you so much.

Huffmon> My pleasure.

Gavin> We'll see you Saturday.

Gavin> It's the final days of the presidential campaign trail in South Carolina ahead of the Saturday First in the South primary.

And that means barnstorming by bus and even by golf cart for Republican presidential candidate and former Governor Nikki Haley.

Over the last two weeks on her bus tour, the former United Nations ambassador made stops in her childhood hometown of Bamberg.

Her alma mater, Clemson University.

Lexington County, where she lived before becoming governor.

And Kiawah Island, where she currently resides.

And numerous towns and cities in between.

She's held small to large rallies in nearly every region of the state.

Enthusiasm on the ground and strong fundraising numbers continue to fuel her bid to hold off former President Donald Trump from becoming the nominee.

Haley> But now he's saying he's going to side with a dictator who arrests American journalists and holds them hostage.

He's siding with a dictator who kills his political opponents.

Now, we know Navalny is another one that he has killed.

Why isn't Trump saying anything about it?

He had a lot to say in Conway.

But what does he say about Navalny now?

Was it Putin's fault?

Because I think it absolutely was Putin's fault.

Why did Putin do it?

He wanted to set the tone before the next election so that anybody who challenged him would know what their fate is going to be.

And so now what do you say about NATO?

What do you say about Navalny?

What do you say about Putin?

That's the biggest issue.

The second thing is he may not be saying anything because he's distracted because of his court cases.

That's a very big possibility.

There's a lot of them.

We know that he said he's going to be spending more time in the courtroom than he's going to be spending on the campaign trail.

Maggie May> I was out here when Mrs. Haley was running for governor supporting her campaign.

And times have certainly changed in many ways.

But on President's Day, what a great opportunity to share that with a candidate who has a real shot.

I think at being the first female president that we have.

And also, just for politics.

It'd be nice to see a southern woman bring it home.

♪ music ♪ Rob Fields> Trump loses control too easily.

And some of the things he says are wrong.

But she has experience.

And I went through all that time with Mother Emanuel.

I knew a victim well and... she led us through that.

I saw that bringing down the flag.

Gavin> In Greenville on Tuesday, Haley delivered a much hyped state of the race speech, feeling once again speculation that she would drop out amid lagging poll numbers.

But on Tuesday, she was clear that she's fighting on, even in the face of another expected loss on Saturday.

And for a rare moment, when speaking of her husband serving abroad, she got choked up.

Haley> Of course, many of the same politicians who now publicly embrace Trump privately dread him.

They know what a disaster he's been and will continue to be for our party.

They're just too afraid to say it out loud.

Well, I'm not afraid to say the hard truths out loud.

I feel no need to kiss the ring.

(applause) I have no fear of Trump's retribution.

I'm not... (applause) I'm not looking for anything from him.

My own political future is of zero concern.

So I hear what the political class says, but I hear from the American people too.

He's serving on the other side of the world where conflict is the norm, where terrorists hide among the innocent.

We're Iran's terrorist proxies are now attacking American troops.

This is Michael's second deployment.

It was hard for us to say goodbye to him the first time when he deployed to Afghanistan.

It was even harder last summer when he deployed to Africa.

As every military family knows, when a loved one deploys.

We start the year long prayer.

It's a prayer for their safety more than anything else.

But it's also a prayer of gratitude.

The kids and I know why Michael went.

He stepped up to keep us safe.

Gavin> Trump, who last held a Valentine's Day rally before thousands in North Charleston, was back in the state Tuesday for a fundraiser and a Fox News town hall taping in Spartanburg with personality Laura Ingraham.

Laura Ingraham> There's a new Suffolk poll out just now, a few days before the big primary.

And among those very likely to vote, you're up over Nikki Haley by close to a 2 to 1 margin, 63 (applause) to 35.

Yet today, she refused to step aside and said this.

Haley> Many of the same politicians who now publicly embrace Trump, privately dread him.

They know what a disaster he's been and will continue to be for our party.

Some people used to say I was running because I really wanted to be vice president.

I think I've pretty well settled that question.

Laura Ingraham> Has she settled that question?

Trump> Well, I settled it about three months ago (crowd applause) and it's, she's not working.

She's here.

She's down by 35 points.

And everybody knows her.

You're not supposed to lose your home state.

Shouldn't happen anyway.

And she's losing it.

"big-ly" - big.

I mean, really, I said "big-ly" and "big-ly" too.

Laura Ingraham>...posted on Truth social about it.

You said that his death made you more aware of the political circumstances here at home.

Trump> It's happening here.

Laura Ingraham> -specifically to rivals.

I want to give you the chance to expand on that, because obviously your opponents have used that to say, again, pro-Putin don't care about human rights or freedom, the freedom movement.

And so what does that mean when you said it made you more aware of your circumstances here?

Trump> Navalny is a very sad situation and he's very brave.

He was a very brave guy because he went back.

He could have stayed away.

And frankly, probably would have been a lot better off staying away and talking from outside of the country as opposed to having to go back in because people thought that could happen.

And it did happen.

And it's a horrible thing, but it's happening in our country, too.

We are turning into a communist country in many ways.

And if you look at it, I'm the leading candidate I got- I never heard of being indicted before.

I was going to- I got indicted four times.

I have eight or nine trials, all because of the fact that I'm -and you know this- All because of the fact that I'm in politics.

Gavin> Trump held his final rally on Friday in Rock Hill before headlining the Black Conservative Federation dinner in Columbia.

To stay up to date with the latest news throughout the week, check out the South Carolina Lede.

It's a podcast that I host on Tuesdays and Saturdays that you can find on South Carolina Public Radio.org or wherever you find podcasts.

For South Carolina ETV, I'm Gavin Jackson.

Be well, South Carolina.

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