>>This week on NewsNight, as forecasters predict a busier than usual hurricane season, a look at the conditions experts believe may lead to an above average number of storms and what it may mean for our state's fragile insurance industry.

NewsNight starts now.

♪♪ Hello, I'm Steve Mort and welcome to NewsNight, where we take an in-depth look at the top stories and issues in central Florida and how they affect all of us.

First tonight, hurricane season might not officially begin until June, but we're already in the thick of prediction season.

Colorado State University's new forecast for the Atlantic storm season is out.

It says there's a 34% chance of a major hurricane hitting peninsular Florida and made record warm ocean temperatures and hurricane favorable wind shear conditions.

Here's NewsNight's Krystel Knowles.

>>The time to prep is now.

Initial forecasts are calling for an extremely active season.

Experts at Colorado State University forecast 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.

That's the largest number ever predicted by CS Uni's April outlook.

Brevard County Emergency Management's Rachel Horst cautions these are just early predictions.

>>Though it may be a more active than normal situation in the Atlantic basin, that doesn't necessarily really mean that that's going to impact central Florida significantly.

However, we always want to make sure that we're prepared.

>>Central Florida has been hit hard by hurricanes in recent years, including Hurricane Ian in 2022.

On the coast, Hurricane Nicole, a Category one storm, caused a lot of damage in Brevard and Volusia counties.

>>A lot of people tend to focus on the different category of storm it is.

Some people, especially if you're a native Floridian, I've heard people talk about, oh, it's only a one or it's only a tropical storm.

It's fine.

I've been here for 50 years.

I've been here for 60 years.

However, that may be, but it's more than just wind speeds that we're looking at.

It's also coastal erosion.

It's talking about the potential for water coming onshore and where you are in that scenario.

It's also talking about flooding situations.

>>One of the largest beach renourishment projects from the Army Corps of Engineers is happening right here in Brevard County.

The project spans about 12 miles and will be completed in two phases.

This will help fix some of the lingering problems and damages caused by Hurricane Ian and Nicole.

>>The East Central Florida Regional Planning Council collaborates closely with emergency operations centers.

Brenda Defoe-Suprenant says studying the resiliency of coastal areas actually helps streamline rescue efforts during emergencies.

>>We can sort of through that process, help direct response if we know where maybe we have people that are more vulnerable or infrastructure or places that are more vulnerable based on our data.

And so that's one of the ways we're kind of trying to be planners in a more holistic manner.

>>As the 2024 hurricane season nears, whether you're a newcomer to the state or a seasoned resident, emergency managers say it's crucial to remember that if a mandatory evacuation is issued, staying behind can pose serious risks.

In such cases, first responders may be unable to provide assistance if causeways or roads become structurally unsafe or if strong winds make it too hazardous to operate emergency vehicles.

>>What we really talk about with our residents, too, is it's not just about whether you can stay in your home on a on a barrier island through the storm.

It's what may happen if you stay.

>>Krystel Knowles reporting.

Well, let's bring in our panel now to break it all down.

Joining us in the studio this week for the first time, Cheryn Stone, host of Engage Central Florida Public Media, formerly WMFE.

Thanks so much for being here.

>>Thank you for having me.

>>Appreciate your time.

>>Alexa Lorenzo, coming back to the program.

Always good to see you, Alexa WFTV, Channel 9.

Thanks for coming in today, guys.

Alexa, let me start with you first on this one.

I mean, it's not just CSU, right?

That's that's reporting an above average hurricane season.

I think AccuWeather has called it a potentially explosive season.

Why do scientists sort of all seem to be reaching that conclusion?

And do your meteorologists at WFTV agree?

>>Yeah.

I spent some time this morning talking with Brian Shields, our meteorologist there in the mornings at Channel 9, and he explained that last year we were in an El Nino pattern and that usually means less hurricanes.

So there's crazy winds above us.

So storms have more trouble building up.

>>This year, it's looking like we're going to be in a La Nina pattern.

So that's very different.

It typically means less wind shear, so that means the storms can build up a little more freely.

You mix that with the warmer water temperatures that we're already seeing and we could see more storms building this year.

>>Now, of course, we're told every year that the warm waters in the in the Gulf and the-- >>Warm water's bad news.

>>Are the fuel for those storms.

Cheryn there are some mitigating factors, though, right?

What could be working in our favor?

>>I'll actually take the warm water and try to put a positive spin on it.

If you think about it, that warm water is just kind of fueling making that storm so strong.

So there is a chance that the hurricane just has what it needs, stays out in the Atlantic and it doesn't even try to come-- >>Sort of forms earlier and moves away.

>>Yeah, it doesn't even get near us.

So that could potentially work in our favor.

And something else is dust in the wind.

I feel like this time of year we start thinking about what's that Saharan dust and we see like meteorologists.

>>Pretty colors.

>>Yeah, track it.

And while it can be pretty to see sunsets and sunrise, it also while it's not good for health quality, it's also not good for hurricanes.

They don't like that formation when they have those conditions.

So that could kind of tamper down.

But again, that's is it the right time?

Is it coming from the Sahara Desert in Africa?

>>And of course, those storms often form off the coast of West Africa, where you get that dust coming straight off the of the desert.

Let's talk about the potential impacts of a hurricane season, Alexa.

I mean, you cover transportation, right?

An extremely active hurricane season, of course, as we all know, could have major effects for fuel prices.

Could this mean a spike in late summer?

What should people know?

>>It could absolutely mean a spike in those gas prices late summer, but it's not because of demand that would be price gouging, which is not allowed during hurricane season.

>>There are rules about that.

>>In crisis.

We have those rules, but it's because of the refineries along the Gulf Coast, half of the total petroleum refinery capacity and 51%.

That's a lot of the total natural gas processing plant capacity in the U.S. is along the Gulf Coast.

So when those hurricanes start brewing and they're heading that way, you can see the impact for supply.

So it's not people filling up their gas tanks.

It's the supply that's at risk.

And it doesn't even have to that hurricane make its way to land.

Just being out at sea can impact the shipping routes, the drilling platforms.

So that's why we could see those prices rise at the pump.

>>And of course, the United States, one of the largest producers of oil in the world, and that has a knock on effect around the globe.

I want to look at what this season might mean for Florida's property insurance market as well.

Before we talk about that, let's hear from Mark Friedlander from the Insurance Information Institute.

Take a watch.

>>So we're seeing much more moderation in the markets compared to a year ago.

We're seeing much more financial solvency of companies.

There have been no insolvencies in over a year now.

We had a period of seven insolvencies where seven companies went out of business between February of 2022 and February of last year.

Big changes and this is all the result of the legislative reforms that took place back in a special session starting in December of 2022 to eliminate two manmade factors which were the main generators of the Florida insurance crisis, legal system abuse and claim fraud.

So while the legislature has taken actions to improve, we're still dealing with hurricane risk factors.

In Florida is always going to be the most prone state when it comes to hurricane risk because we're surrounded by water, the Atlantic on one side, the Gulf on the other.

And it doesn't matter where you live in Florida, you are at risk.

We saw how many homeowners were impacted from Hurricane Ian in central Florida back in 2022.

Thousands of homes flooded.

So if you live in central Florida, you need to prepare financially for hurricane season.

That means adequate coverage for your home in terms of your standard home insurance policy and flood insurance as well.

You really need to think about both.

>>Mark Friedlander there.

Okay, Alexa, there have been several reforms, as we mentioned there, to the homeowners insurance market in Florida, recent legislative sessions.

But what are experts saying about the potential impact of a of a busy hurricane season, particularly busy one this season?

>>Increased risk could very easily lead to increased premiums.

It's companies trying to cover themselves in case the worst happens.

And at this point, companies have been saying and experts that homeowners in Florida and Louisiana are really going to be impacted by some of these price hikes across the entire country.

Those two states are obviously the most vulnerable when it comes to hurricanes.

And they're estimating that those increases are about 7% to 23%.

So that's a pretty big range.

And there are some things that you can do to hopefully not see your premiums climb, doing some weather resistant work on your house.

But with the crisis we're in right now, is that going to be enough to keep your premium from rising?

We've got to see.

>>We've got to wait and see.

I mean, Mark Friedlander, there seemed pretty optimistic about where the insurance market is.

Do we get a feel for how things are going in that market at this point?

It's been such a tumultuous few years.

>>Yeah, I think that there is some optimism in that.

Florida insurance companies reported making money for the last time last year, in last time in seven years.

However, there is this new study that's kind of getting some attention as an academic study.

Harvard University, Columbia University and Fed Reserve use Florida as a case study.

And they found that the insurers that are leaving these traditional insurers are being replaced by cheaper, less quality ones.

So they did kind of sound an alarm there.

>>So the coverage might not be as good if something happened.

Just wanted to finish this segment by talking about some of your reporting.

Cheryn, you recently covered an important effort to bring hurricane season resources to underserved communities in Central Florida.

What did you find?

>>Yeah, I spoke to the director of something called the Alianza Center in Orlando.

Long story short, it formed after the hurricanes devastated Puerto Rico back in 2017.

Residents from there moved to Florida.

One takeaway for me and my interview with him was that it's great to have all these resources, but if people don't know about them, it doesn't matter.

So you have to figure out how do we best serve these communities?

How do we get them to trust us?

So really a focus for them right now is just this community care collaboration and networking to make sure that the information that's available is digestible to people in these communities.

>>Certainly important work for sure.

You can find a link to data from the 2024 hurricane season forecast models on our website.

It's all at wucf.org/newsnight.

Okay.

Next tonight, Florida's waterways often suffer when hurricanes strike our region.

In 2022, for example, Hurricane Ian caused more than 7 million gallons of sewage to spill into the Indian River lagoon.

As we've discussed many times, pollution from septic tanks and fertilizer runoff has caused a massive seagrass die off in the lagoon, jeopardizing Florida's manatee population, fish, mangroves and wider ecosystem.

Toxic algae plague not only the lagoon over the years, but waterways throughout the state.

In recent weeks, the Florida Department of Health has issued a number of advisories for blue green algae as the Army Corps of Engineers releases water from Lake Okeechobee.

In Vero Beach, the city council last month voted to dramatically increase its stormwater tax to help pay for lagoon cleanup.

Taxpayers will see their bills increase there from October.

Late last year, the state allocated $100 million to pay for water quality projects in the lagoon.

It also earmarked money to a company that used a purpose built ship to skim algae off the lagoon for analysis.

The findings are expected to be unveiled in the coming weeks.

>>We packed up the ship in late fall of 2023.

We had three months of operations here and when we do these kind of research projects, we're bringing in very high tech to the waterways.

So we had to essentially build this ship.

So because of research purposes, this was done using readily available platform barges.

So we had those assembled.

We had to bring all the all the tools and necessary equipment, generators to this barge.

But because the IRL is so large, it's 156 miles long, we wanted the flexibility to move up and down the coastline, and that barge gave us that capability.

We're going to be publishing this document here in the next month.

We'll be giving a talk this this summer to explain what our findings are.

And when we look at the difficulties and challenges of working in such a active water waterway, we were very we the data was very promising.

It shows that we do have the capability to use this kind of tool.

So what we want to be able to do is provide our counties or state agencies with tools that can take nutrients out because we need everything available.

We have an abundance of nutrients.

A lot of this is coming in from old septic tanks.

We have sewage problems and we also have legacy fertilizer issues.

So we have these violent storms in Florida.

They flush an enormous amount of nutrients into our waterways.

So we need as many tools as possible to take the nutrients out.

And this particular process and how we harvest the algae allows us to provide also clean water back.

And that would allow the benthic organisms to have a fighting chance because a lot of this toxic algae or the blue green algae really suffocate out the sunlight and starve out the photosynthesis for the seagrasses.

And we're looking at ways that we can help mitigate that and reduce that problem.

>>Dan Levy there.

Okay Alexa, WFTV's covered the ongoing lagoon restoration work in Brevard and Volusia of course, over the years.

What kinds of projects are that $100 million that I mentioned there in my piece earlier, paying for in the Lagoon?

>>Yeah.

Our Melanie Holt, our Brevard bureau reporter, has done such a great job breaking this down and essentially all that money is going to 21 priority water quality projects that are aimed at reducing the amount of harmful nutrients in the entire lagoon.

So there are a lot of projects to get this work done.

There's $12 million in funding that's going directly to Volusia County's advanced wastewater treatment facility.

So that's money for them to get out there and get the job done.

There's $10 million that's going directly to the city of Melbourne, and that's for them to make some improvements to their Grant Street water reclamation facility so that it can be a little more high tech and do what it needs to do to clear that out.

10 million for Brevard County for their muck dredging project and Grand Canal.

That's also a really important one.

So the money's going directly to different agencies, different organizations that can get boots on the ground and get the job done.

>>Certainly costs a lot to get back to where we need to be.

A study a little early this year looked at the effect of of algal blooms on the local economy and tourism.

So maybe it's worth the investment.

Do we get a good sense of the impact on that segment of the economy Cheryn?

>>That study was looking at the bad region in 2018.

Just they looked at three counties.

I just want to throw out a couple of numbers.

This is what they found.

If an event like that were to happen again today, 43,000 jobs lost, 460 million in commercial and recreational fishing, 5 billion in local economic output, that's just three counties in Florida.

That would be what was lost if that happened again.

>>Incredible amount of losses.

I mean, I feel like I've been covering this for a while.

And one of the things that people always tell me is that it's often releases from Lake Okeechobee, that huge lake in south Florida.

That's part of the reason that we see these algal blooms in coastal areas and waterways like like the lagoon.

The Army Corps just recently began releasing water again, I think in February from from Lake Okeechobee.

What do officials say about why they needed to take that action at that point?

Why do they make those releases?

>>So the time to do it was now they were seeing deteriorating ecological ecological conditions in Lake or Lake Okeechobee because we saw heavier than normal rainfall this season.

So it was just getting filled and filled with water.

So they had to start that release and that is hopefully to relieve that lake.

Well, it may have some impacts on other lakes.

They have to look at the whole picture here and the time to do it was now for them because they want to avoid doing it in the wet season because that's when those algal blooms peak and doing it then could be more detrimental to the other waterways.

So that's why they wanted to do it now.

And the other issue is that during that wet season, that's when we see the oyster spawning season start.

So it has to be now for it to minimize some other impacts.

>>And of course we've seen problems with the oyster beds as well.

This is an issue that can affect both the Atlantic coast and the Gulf Coast.

Your outlet, Cheryn, recently reported on a massive project just to the south that's designed to ease some of these stormwater issues that we see in the lagoon.

Tell us about that reporting.

>>Yeah, we have a reporter dedicated to environmental issues, Molly Duerig And what you're talking about is this Groveland Reservoir stormwater treatment Area project.

Basically the idea is to take this stormwater runoff.

That's discharging from the Indian River Lagoon, treat it, store it.

They are being concerns are being raised so that like this is not how is this planning actually going?

This isn't really an issue of how much water we need.

This is an issue of how much are we actually using.

We have enough.

We're not using it correctly.

>>Yeah, it's interesting.

Manatee numbers, of course, seem to be rebounding.

Manatees have been one of the the parts of the ecosystem that have been affected greatly.

But just last month, a lawsuit was filed, right, Alexa, over a delay in putting manatees back on the endangered list.

What is the complaint there?

>>So this stems back to November of 2022.

A number of organizations, including Save the Manatee Club, got together and signed a petition essentially urging and begging the U.S.

Fish and Wildlife Service to reclassify manatees from threatened and to an endangered species under the Endangered Species Act.

So the timeline for this that they were hoping for was that within 12 months they would get some sort of information to figure out whether the U.S.

Fish and Wildlife Service saw that it was warranted to put the manatees back on the endangered list.

16 months have passed and the agency did not issue any findings.

And they had been asking for this because if they are endangered instead of just threatened, there are some additional protections.

So all those organizations thought that that would help these numbers rebound a little more quickly.

>>Just wanted to wrap up on this one.

Brevard County, of course, has that that ten year sales tax funded plan to restore the lagoon that you referenced before.

Annual changes to that plan were just made in February.

WFTV has covered all of this as well.

I mean, do you guys get a sense from people that you talk to that these restorations restoration efforts are going well thus far?

How are people feeling out on the coast?

>>Yeah, we spoke with a professor from Florida Tech's Department of Ocean Engineering and Marine Services - or Sciences, rather.

And he says that at this point they are seeing more seagrass coming back to various parts of the lagoon.

So the efforts are working.

Just this month, about 85% of the more than 600 code enforcement cases that pertain to sewer leaks have been closed and resolved.

So they are starting to see those impacts across different areas.

>>Well, I'm sure both of your outlets will keep an eye on this issue as we move forward.

Before we move on, we wanted to let you know about a special two part NewsNight Conversation series.

Next month's Crisis to Conservation, the importance of water restoration and resiliency.

We'll be looking at some of the most important environmental challenges facing central Florida.

Stakeholders and experts will delve into distinct yet interconnected water issues facing our region, including efforts to restore the Indian River lagoon and enhancing coastal and inland flood resilience.

Well, we'd like you to be part of this NewsNight conversation.

Send us your questions about these important issues by dropping us an email to wucfnewsnight@wucf.org.

You can also find us on social media at WUCFTV on Facebook, X, and also on Instagram.

Okay.

Finally tonight, the future of health care access in Florida.

This month, Central Florida community organizers and political leaders rallied in support of a statewide push to get Medicaid expansion on the 2026 ballot.

The push to expand Medicaid came after lawmakers passed Live Healthy in the most recent legislative session, an $800 million bipartisan package aimed at improving access to health care by addressing Florida's chronic shortage of health care workers.

The Florida Hospital Association says it's imperative to ensure there are sufficient hospitals and staff to meet growing demand amid an aging population.

>>We are looking at nearly a 30,000 shortage of physicians, and that's getting worse almost daily.

Again, Florida as the third largest state in the country and growing every single day with 1,000 more people moving to our state.

We need a modern, sophisticated health care delivery system.

>>But one measure not on the table has been Medicaid expansion in the Republican led legislature.

Florida remains one of just ten states that refuses federal money to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act.

>>We've spent a lot a lot of time looking at this.

It's too expensive and it won't work.

>>The state has been steadily taking Floridians off Medicaid rolls in recent months, since pandemic era protections against removal lapsed last year.

All right.

This is an important issue that we've looked at over the weeks.

Firstly, Alexa, what exactly does the campaign for that 2026 ballot measure on Medicaid expansion want included in that proposal?

>>So essentially, this is to fill a gap.

It's for people who make too much income to qualify for Medicaid, where it stands today in the state of Florida.

But they make too little to get subsidies from the health insurance marketplace.

So it's for that person in the middle.

Right.

And we see many people fall into that gap.

So at this point, they want to expand Medicaid coverage to adults ages 18 to 64 whose incomes are at or below 138% of the poverty level.

So that's about $21,000 in 2024.

And this has been a long time coming.

Florida is one of just ten states that's chosen not to accept federal funding to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act.

And this legislative session, we saw Republicans refuse to take this up, saying it was a nonstarter, a waste of money, and in their eyes wasn't effective.

>>And of course Florida declines federal money for that.

What were the protections that were in place, Cheryn, during the pandemic for those Medicaid recipients?

And what groups were most are most impacted, I should say, from the end to those protections?

>>During the pandemic, Medicaid eligibility was expanded and states were not allowed to drop people who may be no longer qualified because they made too much money.

Since then, people have been notified that they were reexamining Medicaid eligibility and are starting to get these letters being told you actually do make too much and you know, that's relative.

But based on the terms, they make too much money to qualify and it's kids, kids are the ones who are losing coverage and they're the ones that falling in the gap, unfortunately.

>>And depending on what, of course, the condition that the person has, that can can have a huge impact-- >>The more complex the condition, the harder it can be for the parents to navigate the paperwork and get coverage for their kids.

>>And the out of pocket cost.

Alexa, I mean we've talked on the show before about the Live Healthy Act.

Just remind us of the main ways it intends to expand access here in the States or without including that Medicaid expansion.

>>So it mainly focused on retaining and attracting health care workers here in Florida.

The Florida Hospital Association has talked about that need a lot, but it also expanded access to free services, maybe some screenings through clinics.

So people who are uninsured can go to these clinics and get some services for free.

There's a threshold you have to meet.

It's below 300% of the federal poverty level.

So that's about 30 to 43,000 for an individual on income or 60 to 90 for a family of four.

So you do have some more services available without having to go into that Medicaid discussion.

But a lot of people are still saying that's not enough.

>>And, of course, much of this legislation addresses a shortage of doctors and nurses.

That seems to be such a shortage that that affects people's access to health care.

>>Because you can walk into a clinic, but if there's no one to see you or the schedule is full and you can't go back for another three months, but you need that screening now, what good is it?

>>Central Florida Public Media has covered this issue, right, Cheryn?

I mean, what do health care industry groups say about the extent of those shortages I was talking to Alexa about?

>>Yeah.

And you just mentioned the Florida Hospital Association.

They found that we're going to have a shortage of 59,000 nurses in Florida just by 2035 and are facing this critical workforce shortage and growth in labor costs.

That's also contributing to the problem.

>>And you've been covering the frustration among health care workers themselves about staffing levels.

>>Yeah, look, a lot of people are putting this focus on the number of people entering the workforce.

I spoke to an E.R.

nurse and her point was, it's not that.

It's that these companies sometimes are putting profits over patient care.

And she thinks that the focus doesn't need to be on getting more people.

It's keeping the ones they have and making sure that they have the resources so they're not working the entire shift without a break.

>>Well, it's certainly an issue we'll keep watching here on the program for sure.

A reminder, you can always find much more on our website.

You'll find this and all past episodes of the program there as well.

It's all at wucf.org/newsnight along the bottom of the screen.

But that is all the time we have for this week.

My thanks to Cheryn Stone, Central Florida Public Media.

Thanks so much for coming in, Cheryn.

Good to see you today.

Alexa Lorenzo, WFTV, Channel 9, thanks for coming in as well Alexa.

Just before we go, we wanted to honor the memory and service of former Florida governor and U.S.

Senator Bob Graham, who passed away this week at the age of 87.

He made quite a mark on our state over the years.

And from all of us here at WUCF and NewsNight we wanted to express our condolences to his family.