Welcome to Party Politics, where we prepare you for your next political conversation.

I'm Jeronimo Cortina, a political science at the University of Houston.

And I'm Brandon Rottinghaus, also a political science professor here at the University of Houston.

Thanks for hanging out and talking politics with us.

this Jeronimo is our last show until September.

We're going to take a little summer hiatus.

We obviously are going to see a lot of politics between now and September 1st to come back.

So our goal for this week is to talk about the things to watch for summer and then for early fall.

A lot of things are going to happen between now and then, and they're going to have a really big impact on the state and on the nation as it sets itself up for the 2024 election.

So let's, dig right into some big news of the week.

And that's there.

Joe Biden is going to visit Florida this week, where he's going to talk about the six week abortion ban that the Florida legislature has set to put into effect, really focusing on reproductive rights.

Now, of course, this is set against the backdrop of the former president on trial and basically continuously violating this gag order, which could find some political liabilities with it.

I mean, there's a possibility that him being rambunctious in and out of court could turn off some voters and highlight the fact that, you know, hey, by the way, I'm on trial for something, so it could be a problem.

But Joe Biden is hoping to kind of refocus, really ignore that, which is really interesting.

Like to say I'm not going to talk about that.

He doesn't want to politicize it any more than it already is politicized.

Right.

But instead he's going to talk about abortion politics, which is going to be a huge framing issue for 2024.

So, like, what do you make of the speech and sort of how he's trying to frame this big picture?

Well, I think, you know, it's just basic, very simple.

Right.

is not or the main argument is this is not a state level issue.

Yeah.

This is about women and reproductive rights, and this is about women making decisions about, you know, their pregnancies and bound their bodies.

Right.

So is framing the issue in a pretty narrow sense.

is framing an issue not in terms of state rights, not in terms of anything else.

And he's arguing, you know, the Supreme Court got it wrong.

So it's you want to fix it.

This is an issue that matters to you.

It's bread and butter issue.

It's, you know, individual level issue.

People can relate to it and that's it.

And especially given that, you know, abortion nowadays, you know, a majority or majority of the country supports abortion, right?

Yeah.

And in terms of how needs to be filtered down is, well, I mean, if you don't, agree with abortion, don't have it.

Right, but your preference is given either, you know, religious or whatever it is cannot be imposed on other people.

Yeah.

So very interesting.

Yeah.

In terms of how he's framing the issue.

I think you're right.

It's a very winnable issue.

It's a very simple issue at its core.

Right.

And I think it's a sellable one for a lot of voters.

I don't know if the Democrats are going to win Florida in presidential elections.

It's close.

It's like a Republican plus for the last couple cycles.

But in the 22 cycle, Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio win big right by almost 20 points.

So Florida's not necessarily in play.

But as you say, that's not the point, right?

This is not a Florida issue.

This is a national issue.

He's just using this as a kind of opportunity to prime the base.

But it's more than just that.

So in the two years after a row was reversed, a number of red and blue states that have put abortion related topics on the ballot has increased.

So in every time it's been the case that it's one California, Kentucky, Maine, Kansas, but notable swing states, conservative states, abortion has been a motivator.

The other thing is that this is an issue that really does prime younger voters.

So especially younger voters who are Democratic leaning and who generally want abortion to be more legal than it is, is a winner for Democrats.

So it's a smart play for them, and I think it'll pay off long run.

But that's something obviously they're going to have to kind of continue to prime as things go.

Let's switch and talk a little bit about taxes.

Before we talk about the big picture of, kind of what to watch.

Representative Tony Gonzalez got into some trouble this week, publicly calling some of his colleagues in the house scumbags.

why why?

well, I mean, he was, talking about the, bill or the aid to Ukraine, Israel and the Pacific region.

Right.

To Taiwan.

Yeah.

just arguing that, you know, some of these people did not vote for it.

Yeah.

And that's just, yeah, according to him, they are just, scumbags, for not supporting this thing and putting, you know, their partizan or they ideology before the national security of the country.

Right.

So it's a it's a political argument that gets pretty nasty.

But it's also to some degree personal, right?

Because some members have chosen to back, Brandon Herrera, who is Tony Gonzalez's opponent.

So Ralph Norman is planning to endorse Herrera.

Eli Crane said he's going to back Herrera.

and then Eric Burleson also said that he's going to back, Tony Gonzalez, his opponent.

What's stunning to me about this is that you see a real divide here.

Number one, you see the party really split, right.

And Gonzalez is kind of caught in the middle.

He's always been somebody who's been very outspoken about border issues, but he has a very particular point of view since he represents literally the district along the border.

And he has leave there.

Yeah.

Not like, Herrera that used to live somewhere in the in 2020 came back.

Yeah.

Very or Ralph Norman from South Carolina or Eric Burleson from Missouri.

Yes.

they have different levels of border, but as you know that the support for that sort of policy is really rooted in partizanship more than about kind of that sense of place.

But Gonzalez has his point of view and he's trying to find a footing in the party, that is found success among some so that he does have support from the speaker.

Right.

the Speaker Johnson is was in San Antonio this week, but he had raised a bunch of money for Gonzalez.

so that divide is pretty clear.

But what's stunning to me the most is that we have here a period where Gonzalez was the future of the Republican Party.

He's a conservative Hispanic in a place where the Republicans want to do better among that coalition.

Right.

that to me is strange, because now you have this position where he's seen as a rhino, somebody who's, like an apostasy to the party.

What happened?

That was 2021, I know him.

Oh, like.

And now, like, literally three years later.

And he's a pariah among some in the border.

Good luck.

I mean, because I think that the Republican Party's misreading 1000, 11,000%.

Right.

The Latino electorate.

Yeah.

Right.

And if the Republican Party wants to be successful, you know, he's, represents like Tony Gonzalez are, you know, the ones.

Yeah.

That they should be promoting.

Why?

Because yes, the Latino electorate is is, you know, tier genius, so on and so forth.

Right.

But yes, it tends to be a little bit more conservative.

Right.

But also he tends to be more progressive.

Another each interesting.

Yeah.

And he tends to be, you know, middle of the road on other issues.

Right.

So I think that Tony Gonzalez brings that, you know, I would say combination of issues and knows how to navigate.

And, you know, not like President Ford.

He knows how to do the man.

Right.

You can.

Right.

You know, exactly without making a mess.

So the fact that he's being outflanked, I think that eventually.

No.

And I'm not talking about this election.

I'm talking about the future of the Republican Party, especially in Texas.

It's a great point.

He's going to have a significant impact in terms of, you know, the Latino electorate, not 100% on, you know, abiding by these very, very hard, right positions that may be like, wait, what?

That's a great point.

And, you know, if President Trump is reelected, then it's possible that it will only exacerbate some of those divides.

And it could create a problem for some members who find themselves in the middle on this issue.

Want to find compromise?

Want to find a solution, but won't be able to.

And, you know, Tony Gonzalez is really kind of trapped at that point.

So to me, yeah, that change has been just stuck, but really does reflect the fact that this is the politics of today, especially in the Republican Party that's struggling really to find itself.

It's got an identity crisis indeed.

well, let's talk about, what's to come, Jeronimo?

we are going to go on hiatus, right?

We're going to get a little break.

we're won't be here, to be able to explain all of the chaos of the week, every single week.

but we definitely have a kind of primer for some things that we should watch in the near future.

So obviously, we do this, as a service, right?

We hope to be useful.

And that's, at least partially what we, can try to be.

And.

Well, the first is that the nation and the state has to vote again.

So we've got a lot of things that are coming up.

We've got special elections that have to be, voted on in addition to kind of local races.

Important.

We also have races that will dictate the appraisal districts in big counties.

If you live in a big county over 75,000 people in taxes, you're going to be voting for, these individuals who will represent you on this appraisal board.

We can talk a little bit about that.

But basically the bottom line is vote.

Yeah.

Make sure that you're registered.

Make sure that you can get out there and vote because it's so important because honestly turnout is going to be really, really low.

If we hit 4%, I will be very happy.

But that's been a struggle in most midterm most primary you know primary runoffs right.

Very unlikely.

We're going to have big turnout.

Well and here is the best you know example right.

Everybody that is a homeowner.

Yeah complains complains and complains about property taxes.

Yeah.

Right.

We're going to have an election to elect you know, the appraisal district boards.

They do not make decisions about property values board.

They appoint the member of the appraisal review board.

So whatever they call that actually here, your protests and actually, you know, choose to lower or not your property values.

Between 30 of 50 council, counties are going to have, elections, 50 counties are going to have these elections, right?

30 out of those, 50 are not going to have an election because tell me why there is no candidates, right?

There is unopposed candidates, etcetera, etcetera.

Right.

So the question here is, right, if you really want to play the democratic game, right, you have to have a responsibility to go out and vote.

Show up and or run for this position.

Now you're right.

this is certainly the case that it's very new, right?

This is in effect because voters approve this this, constitutional amendment which now sets this in state.

So the fact that it's still kind of becoming a common thing.

Is probably.

Okay.

But this is, of course, just another level of election that has to be put into effect.

So people have to learn more about the candidates and they have to understand what they do.

Right.

It's a you know, I wouldn't say it's a big lift because, you know, which is with an expectation of living in a democratic country, but it's also a lot more to do.

So it is certainly something that is an additional thing.

but.

These highlights how important, right these local elections are.

These are the elections that.

Yeah, have a direct line to you and whatever preferences you want to be.

So I have two questions.

The first question is no.

Actually, maybe I anticipated it.

Okay.

As you anticipated what I was going to wear today, I.

Was there you.

Go on holiday.

one question is, do you think this will really make this process more democratic so people feel more involved?

The second question is, I mean, do you think that it will change in the future in that this is a the first election, right.

So these people serve for like a short term, right.

And then in the future it switches to a two year term, where a four year term, whether when they have it done an even number of years.

So it'll be in a midterm year where it's like, you know.

Turnout.

Will turn a little bit higher.

Right?

And it's not a short election summer vacation, which always has low turnout.

So do you think those things are true?

I mean, do you think that is again, that that we will see people feel like they're more represented.

And number two, do you think that we'll see more involvement in this from voters?

Well, I mean, yes and no.

and yes and no, because, you know, hopefully.

Right.

These you know, election in these positions are not going to become Uber, polarized in terms of ideological issues.

Right?

They sort of are, though, right?

I mean, the parties have chosen to rule, you know, to, to, to generate these candidates and there's going to be a partizan atmosphere to it, even though they're not Partizan elected.

Right.

But my point is, you know, thinking as a public administrator, right.

just imagine that you are the county judge, right?

And you have made all your budget projections, and then you increase your property taxes, which are, you know, pretty well regulated, right, right, by the state, but also, you know, within the counties.

And suddenly you get, a bunch of members of these, appraisal district board that certainly say, like, well, you know what?

I don't like property taxes, so I'm going to decrease them by 50%, right?

That would leave, right?

Yeah.

A whole it's it could kind of like carve it off, right?

Like little by little you're, we're whittling it away.

Yeah.

Okay.

So yeah, you know for the future in terms of providing services that people.

Now one more services but do not necessarily need to pay is challenging.

So these brings to the point is like oh wow.

yes.

This is an important, democratic process.

And I totally agree that we should have these type of elections.

But then is like, when do we need to stop, you know, electing this thing in, you know, actually having these representative democracy where the people that we elect are going to represent us.

But again, there is this issue of, of of political polarization.

Yeah.

That I don't know.

That's to be seen.

Right.

I mean, you know, and there has been debate about this.

Right.

Some of the members have voted against it, especially Democrats that are just going to become a kind of another Partizan battle.

Right.

And it very well could in some counties.

But yeah, there are also counties like Harris County that are pretty blue.

So it's going to be a question about turnout.

Right.

And do people vote to the bottom of the ballot.

Right.

Yeah.

Are you looking for these races specifically.

Oh yeah.

They're going to choose them.

Yeah.

Yeah.

And that's the real question.

So we'll find out.

Right.

That's that again.

That's a that's something to think right.

That's what we're what we're here for.

The other thing to think about is that we're having a lot of voting in addition to that.

Right.

There's a runoff on May 4th.

Yep.

for Senator Whitmire is old seat.

This is Senate district 15.

Jarvis Johnson is a member of the Texas House running against Molly Cook, who is a local activist and emergency room nurse.

that should be a pretty competitive race.

There's been some, you know, controversy in that about sort of who's the better Democrat.

Right.

Jarvis Johnson says I've got more experience.

Molly Cook says you're kind of taking money from these or charter school groups, and you haven't been as sort of faithful to the Democratic Party line as you should be.

that's an interesting race.

some other Democrats that were in trouble, for instance, we're looking at, House district 146.

We've talked about Shawn Thierry, who's been on the ropes because of her position on LGBTQ issues.

She's being challenged by Lauren Ashley Simmons, who got a pretty healthy chunk of the vote.

Yeah, and this could be a race that we see an upset here for the incumbent.

so lots going on.

Right.

And obviously there's a sort of signal here that you're seeing a real seat change in both parties so that you're seeing the Democrats become more liberal and trying to coalesce around that.

Democrats or Republicans more conservative and trying to kind of push that party line, beyond Harris County, beyond Houston.

And we're also seeing really important primaries happening across the state where you've got eight different House members who were forced into runoff, including Speaker Dade Phelan.

Club for growth as part of a bunch of money into these ads.

You're seeing, though, GOP incumbents trying to push back and say, you know, this is out-of-state money trying to turn Texas into this sort of, you know, private TikTok billionaire sanctuary.

But what's going to happen here in terms of that balance of power?

Oh, I mean, it's an interesting question because we're also seeing in, you know, in in the Senate race, right.

some reports, saying that more outside monies flow in this state.

So, you know, it's interesting, because on the one hand, you know, we are all proud 100% is like, you know, this is the Texas way.

But then we put a little asterisk and then we go to the fine print unless it's money from other states and we'll take it.

Right.

So it's like, you know, that this then is like, why are you allowing, interest in 5%?

I'm not saying that it's a bad thing or anything like that, but these monies have very clear objectives, both from Republicans and Democrats.

Right.

So it's like, yeah.

Is that good for the, you know, overall well-being of the state?

I don't know, it's up to you all to decide.

But again, it's on both parties.

Yeah.

And this will be a pretty significant primary season again.

Like we you know.

Oh yeah.

We're off the air more or less when this happens.

And so people are going to have to kind of interpret this as it comes.

But I think almost no matter what happens, you're going to see a very conservative session in the, the next cycle and the fact is that I think the conservatives already won.

I mean, they've already pushed a bunch of these challengers, you know, into, into runoff, which is a really pretty successful outcome.

That means that they're probably going to take some of these seats.

They've already taken enough seats, probably to get very close on pushing some things like school vouchers.

But it's beyond that now.

Right.

Because now the governor is talking about property taxes or talking about the border and trying to kind of just generally kind of consume that power and use that as a sort of way to sort of leverage the success in the legislature.

So let me ask you a question.

So, you know, the election is gone, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, 2025 we start right, the legislative session, right?

Yeah.

How much more conservative, right, in comparison to the last session?

Yeah.

I was like pretty conservative, right?

I mean, they feel, push up very, very, very conservative agenda.

Yeah.

how much, much more.

Is there to do.

Yeah, yeah.

One.

Well and two, it's a.

It's a two part question.

Okay.

Yeah.

That's good.

And I think the second one is, you know, given the Tony Gonzalez, situation.

Right.

And the fractured Republican Party.

Yeah.

What could happen.

Right.

It's like if you push it, are you going to break the the how do you call these the rubber.

The rubber bands.

The rubber band will snap.

Yes.

And if and if you keep, you know, putting it in and out, it'll it'll get worn down.

So break on the first question.

I think the answer is yes.

There are all kinds of ways this can happen.

Okay.

Actually, Glenn Rogers, who was one of the members who, lost his seat, has made it clear that he thinks that anything else that's done in a manner that the conservatives want is probably unconstitutional.

I don't know if that that's true, because there's lots of things that they can do at the margins here to be able to move that and to be able to prime the base.

But for instance, the governor floated the idea of banning people who are transgender from being teachers.

I don't know how big an issue this is or if this is an issue at all, but that's something that you could easily imagine as part of, kind of platform that would be acceptable and really kind of welcome for the base.

and the second question is sort of your question is, and that's your perpetual question, like, how far can Republicans push it before they have a reaction from the public, even in their own party that says, you've gone too far?

I don't know, I don't think we're quite there yet.

I think polarization is really hard in the sense that people aren't going to vote for the other side.

The worst it's going to happen is they don't show up to vote.

So maybe that advantages Democrats.

But I don't know that that given where things are in terms of how the districts are drawn and how the state generally votes.

Right.

We talked about this last week.

Rural votes are still going to be big, and turnout is better in some cases than in suburban and urban areas.

So the Democrats are always going to get out voted in those census unless there's some kind of huge change.

So it's a long way of saying that basically, it's a really tough for Democrats to be able to kind of find some momentum here.

And Republicans could probably go a little farther before they get any kind of real kind of pushback and sanction.

so, the other I think, way this manifest is in, the fights about district attorney.

So an a little known law that was passed, it effectively allows for people to sue their local district attorney if for not malfeasance or noncompliance.

Right.

Basically, you're not doing your job.

And so we're going to try to take you out of office.

Travis County resident is taking advantage of this law this literal week.

they're trying to remove progressive District Attorney Jose Garza from office.

with this law, state district judge from Comal County has been appointed to represent Texas in this case.

Basically, the petition alleges that the misconduct was that the district attorney's indiscriminately filing charges against law enforcement officials, which has been a battle in Travis County and is not prosecuting certain kinds of crime like abortion.

Now, this is, again, the kind of thing that's going to take place probably in the summer, maybe in the fall.

We don't know what the outcome will be, but the fact that it exists and now is being used in this way is pretty dramatic.

So talk to me about what you think this means.

Well, what it means is, once again, that these issues have been, politicized.

Right?

Yeah.

And he's one on the one hand is the intervention of the state saying, no, I want you to prosecute these things.

Then district attorneys is like, wait, I was elected one.

Yeah, two.

And I have these, prosecutorial discretion.

In terms if I understand that we're going to have a chance or we're not going to have a chance to win these these particular case, whatever it is.

So once again, it's the control of the state on local issues while the state complains of the federal issues.

Yeah.

Tried to control the failed the feds.

You're right.

You're prompting us, right?

Oh, wait a minute.

Like, you know, it's like cognitive dissonance all over the place.

But this has very, very important implications, right?

Because if you're a D.A.

and you don't want to be, no one used, House Bill 17, right?

That is a bill that allows you to petition removing a district attorney.

Then it's like, oh, let's prosecute everything I'm wasting resources.

I'm being not very successful in convictions, etc., etc.. And the other one is, you know, these issues are going to be, you know, once again, along Partizan lines, right?

In terms of, well, these the ones that are going to be doing the investigation are also Republicans.

Right?

So it's, you know, yeah, once again, it's.

Unavoidably Partizan in that.

Right.

But the precedent it might set would be really stunning.

Now every big county DA is watching this because they've all made similar kinds of statements about what they plan to prosecute and not abortion being one of the biggest one.

So it's going to have a certain chilling effect on DA is about what they plan to do in an office.

So it may actually sort of change the politics of how these races run.

the other is sort of exactly how the courts handle this.

Right.

What do they perceive as being kind of misconduct in office because prosecution it does, you know, is sort of a variable thing, right?

Sometimes you do, sometimes you don't.

So how much of it has to happen in order for it to be officially kind of misconduct.

So that'll be interesting to watch, because that's going to be a real kind of stunning precedent for all big county DA's.

well, the last thing that's going to happen this summer that has a major impact on the 2024 election is that the Supreme Court is going to decide on whether or not the former president, that is, President Donald Trump is immune from federal prosecution.

There's no kind of legally tested outcome on this.

The Justice Department says that, yeah, you can be.

The, Trump's attorneys say there's no reason that should be the case.

And it would just open up all kinds of problems for presidents to be prosecuted for stuff you did while in office.

What do you think the court's going to do here?

Oof!

it's a toughie.

It's a tough one.

Yeah, because, you know, if the court goes one way or the other, the court is going to be in flames, right?

under attack by progressives or under attack by conservatives.

Yeah.

So, I mean, is there enough evidence, you know, there is some evidence on both sides.

Right.

But it's just going to be, you know, going deep into the constitutional, yeah.

You know, thoughts of the 1800s.

It's actually this is why I love setting institutions, because it gets to these core questions about, yeah, like what it means to be president.

Right.

And it seems so basic and obvious, but like, what do you get as president?

What are your powers look like?

What's the bundle of things?

You get responsibilities and liabilities.

And that's really a question that goes to the core of kind of how we conceive of the presidency.

So I don't want to oversell one case, you know, but it does have important implications for what presidents do in office, because if now they can be prosecuted, if they leave for doing certain things, then you might even think twice about it.

Right?

So, for instance, one of the things that President Trump's team says, for instance, what happens if you order Seal Team six to go kill Osama bin Laden, then eventually somebody sues you for this, right?

You know, if you are found not guilty, then you're sort of getting away with murder, literally.

But as a matter of course, you know, office, you ought to be somebody who can have these decisions and have them protected by the kind of seal of the US presidency.

So it's a really important question.

And the court's going to have to make some tough choices here.

Well, but yeah, but on the other hand is like, you know, he can order the assassination of a political opponent, right.

so it's like, well, I don't think that's.

Very the implications are really dangerous.

All right.

That's, that's that's the trouble.

Yeah.

Where's that line.

So yeah.

Fine.

Absolutely.

But well, thank you all for watching all this season, obviously we want to thank all our friends here, the party politics team, that without them, we would not be, they would not be either listening to us or hearing to also thank you to you all.

And thank you for being, loyal follower.

Hey.

And thanks to you.

it's been a great trip.

Obviously a fun year.

And, everybody at Houston Public Media has been fantastic.

we'll see everybody in September.

I'm Jeronimo Cortina.

I'm Brandon Rottinghaus.