[MUSIC] How many haymakers can one election cycle take?

Hey everybody, it's Reporters Roundtable.

I'm David Cruz.

Final rounds of what turned into a slugfest of a governor's race.

Our panel of ringside judges includes Sophie Nieto-Munoz.

She's a reporter with New Jersey Monitor.

Brent Johnson covers politics for NJ Advance Media, and he's the editor of the What Makes Jersey Run newsletter.

And P. Kenneth Burns covers New Jersey for WHYY Radio.

Ladies and gents, welcome.

Kenny, can we not just all get along?

I feel like sometime last week, the gloves just came off and a hockey fight broke out.

Remember what level of ground we were on last week?

Well, if you forgot what it looked like, look up.

That joke never has gotten old, this cycle.

That's where we are, folks.

Like, we now are in lawsuit territory, Cory, and I don't even think I've seen a lawsuit filed yet.

>> Yeah, so is this as low as you've seen it?

>> Yeah, yeah, this is pretty low.

I've seen some Donnie Brooks in my day as far as politics, but I've never seen a defamation suit even being floated as a possibility in all of the races I've covered between two states.

Also, Ken, nobody says Donnybrook anymore.

Sophie, you got the governors, you got the assembly races.

Now you got municipal elections, seven candidates in Jersey City, six in Hoboken.

You cannot escape the ads.

When will it end and have you seen things worse ever?

In my few years of covering this, I have not seen it get this ramped up in the end, I would say.

I have seen all the ads and I mean the ads are, they're up in the ante too.

We've seen Mikey Sherrill double down on the connecting Jack to the opioid crisis.

The opioid Jack website we've seen Jack really commit to these naval disciplinary records that he wants Congress the congresswoman to release so I think that you know three weeks left Who's to say what ads are gonna come out?

What else is gonna come across?

But I expect it to keep going.

Yeah Brent all the things military service sales tax opioids publications pharmaceutical investments if these campaigns don't watch out nobody's gonna end up voting yeah I mean that's the biggest thing we're now less than three weeks to Election Day and the the focus will be narrowing on on the final stretch you'd now you have national Democrats or Republicans coming in to campaign for these people Barack Obama just formally endorsed Mikey Sherrill Donald Trump is supposed to hold telephone town town halls for Chittarelli so you know you will see more punches being thrown but what I keep hearing behind the scenes is that Democrats or Republicans want these candidates to stop fighting and just talk about the biggest issues in the race and poll show that's taxes energy rates affordability so a lot of insiders are saying this is all just noise just say what you're going to do to lower people's bills.

Let me stick with you here Brent we're waiting for the lawsuits from Chittarelli over Sherrill's comments about his medical publishing company she said he killed 10,000 people.

Is there going to be a suit and what's the hold up?

Well he has said there's going to be a suit and there's a slight hold up because they the campaign, the stradarelli campaign wants to make sure that this lawsuit doesn't count against the public money they can receive in matching funds and what they're allowed to spend.

So they want to make sure that there's nothing that could hurt them from spending money in the final weeks of the race.

So he hasn't formally filed a lawsuit yet.

And as we've learned from these campaigns, sometimes we might not even be talking about this in a few days.

There's so much going on and so much heat that, you know, do you remember the whole thing about her military records and the Navy cheating scandal?

I do, but I don't know if anybody else does, and that may be a case of this being this here.

Yeah.

Sophie, Terrence McDonald wrote that maybe Sherrill went a little bit too far with this line of attack.

Even our totally scientific ex-poll agreed.

But she's doubling down.

Any sense that this hurts her with voters?

I think the fact that she's doubling down means that she has some idea of the fact that this could be helpful to her.

I mean, even just yesterday in the Enquirer, she talked about it again and she called Jack a big baby.

And like Brent said, insiders, they're saying that they want them to focus on policy again.

You know, this opioid issue, it is, she's making it a really important issue, but it doesn't address what's on the top of voters' minds.

Affordability, property taxes, utility prices, grocery costs.

I mean, none of that is addressed with talking about a company that Jack had, you know, nine, 10 years ago.

Yeah.

And now, of course, the Gateway Tunnels project terminated, says the president.

The Sheryl campaign was all over that this week.

Cittarelli put out a post that says this shows how important it is to have close ties to the White House along those lines.

New Jersey needs a governor who has the standing to work with and, when necessary, disagree with the president, etc., etc.

Sherrill responded to that at a press conference in Secaucus this week and said this.

I think if you are going to work with this president, you have to come of a strong stance of advocating for your state and what you want to see, and then you can negotiate.

I mean, my opponent gives up before the negotiations start.

He starts from a position of whatever you want, we'll do.

That's not leverage.

That's not negotiation.

I don't think there's anything that's a little more telling about the kind of power Jack Ciuttarelli would have with the president than the fact that 19 days until his election, the president's punched him in the face like this.

That's pretty telling.

Ouch, punched him in the face.

Brent, tough to gain ground when the president is cutting you off at the knees like that.

I mean, he could have waited a couple of weeks.

Yeah, it's funny.

I literally just wrote this week's newsletter about what kind of effect Trump is having on the race, how he's shaping the race.

And this happened in the middle of me getting set to publish.

And it shows Trump is very active in the race.

He cares a lot about New Jersey.

And sometimes that might not necessarily help the candidate as he's in the middle of a shutdown and tense negotiations.

So what Trump giveth can also taketh away in Ciattarelli's case.

And he's already walking a fine line on the president.

So we'll see how this plays out in a few weeks.

Yeah.

Kenny, I mean, you guys in South Jersey may not have this top of mind, but do voters care about the gateway shutdown or the gateway termination?

Thank you for pointing out the irony that you ask the guy that covers South Jersey mostly.

They care.

I care as a central Jersey resident, because you still have that relationship between Philadelphia, at the very least, in New York.

You have some people that live in Philly and live in South Jersey who takes trains to New York and come back home the same day.

So it might not affect a whole lot, but I'm sure that there's some care, especially even outside of work.

You go to New York on weekends for sporting games and other events.

Let's move over to you, Brent.

How big an issue is that, the gateway?

Yeah, it's obviously a lot of people, especially in North Jersey, commute into New York every day and it is going to be an issue with them.

But it's more symbolic of, is Donald Trump going to take away things from New Jersey?

And if Chitarelli was governor, would he be able to fight and stop that?

And what would he do?

And that's the point Sherrill is making.

And Chitarelli is saying, I'm going to be a lot better positioned to deal with Trump because I have his support.

Sophie, Trump is supposed to call into some of these Chitarelli rallies through November.

Should Chitarelli take the phone off the hook or hit DND in his settings?

I think maybe he should do a little bit of both, depending on where he wants to make the inroads.

Yeah.

Because you have super MAGA voters who want somebody who is going to reflect Trump's policies in New Jersey, but he's also got to make, he also has to work at picking up some of those moderate, more independent voters who maybe they don't resonate with Trump's policies so much and especially in the backtrack of the government shutdown, it probably would not be as good of a move as this keeps going on, keeps getting worse and starts to affect people's daily lives like we just saw with the gateway tunnel funding.

Will he walk with him down some Main Street, you think, shaking hands?

I'm not sure we're going to see Donald Trump walking around Main Street in New Jersey anytime soon if I had to put my money on it.

Brent, what do you think?

Will there be a joint appearance somewhere other than in the deep in the south of Jersey?

I doubt it.

Although I was talking to a Republican this week with not direct ties to Trump, but close enough ties to Trump.

And they were saying that it's really a matter of logistics, that Trump doesn't like really appearing outdoors anymore since his assassination attempt and the assassination of Charlie Kirk.

But I don't know if they'll find an indoor venue or whether they want him to find an indoor venue.

It's a very delicate balance, as I wrote about this week, that Cettarelli has to walk.

And Trump can help him with MAGA voters because the question is, will they turn out in a non-presidential election year?

But he also has to worry about those undecideds, independents and disaffected Democrats.

Yeah.

Ken, what do you think?

Let's clear the deck.

I agree with Sophie and Brent.

I don't expect President Trump to walk anywhere in New Jersey anytime soon.

In fact, I've seen more sparing mentions of Trump overall.

It's not that Jack doesn't acknowledge him.

He agrees with some of his policies.

But I also believe that Mr.

Chittarelli is doing what he can to thread that needle ever so slightly.

Meanwhile, Kenny, Obama comes out for Sheryl.

Didn't see that coming.

Are there enough unaffiliated and undecided voters to swing this election?

One poll has it down to like 3 percent undecided.

What we are seeing in the polling, and keep in mind this is much different from four years ago where in 2025 is more close to pre-COVID.

I believe we are seeing a tightening of polls.

More people are looking up Jack and they're learning more about him.

And also keep in mind, I find that Mikey Sherrill is doing exactly what Jack Shorter-Rawley is calling her out as far as evoking Trump and trying to tie him to Trump.

And most of the people that I've spoken with, they like the specificities of Jack's plans and not so much Mikey Sherrill's broad strokes.

Say that word three times fast, by the way.

Brent, Kenny mentioned the polls, Quinnipiac and FDU.

Both I think show Sherrill up by six or eight points.

After all, it's 50 to 44 in the Quinnipiac poll.

After all this, isn't this where the polls pretty much have been all along?

Yeah, for the most part, they've been tightening a bit, both polls.

There was also a Fox News poll that showed her up by five.

So those are coming closer together as compared to earlier polls by a few points.

But yet, it still shows Sheryl with a single-digit lead.

It's not exactly-- I wouldn't call it comfortable.

Comfortable would be high single digits or 10 or above.

But it shows that she still is leading.

And no polls-- there was an Emerson poll last month that showed her tied.

But no polls have shown him in front, or at least no public polls have shown him in front.

So yeah, right now-- but there's still three weeks to go, and a lot can change.

They say that's an eternity in politics.

So we'll see.

You know, you hear a lot about these internal polls that we sometimes get to see if they favor a specific candidate.

But how reliable are those, Brent?

Or is a pollster that's going to do something for one party or the other is going to kind of give you what you want to hear, no?

Well, you always have to be leery for that reason.

And also because sometimes these polls are designed to drive up fundraising, maybe to show there's momentum or to show that, you know, we have to watch out because the polls aren't tightening enough.

So yeah, you always have to be leery of them, but it's, polling is a new game in the 21st century.

And you know, they say, take it with a grain of salt, but it also, they also are good snapshots of how the public are feeling at a certain time.

Interestingly, I was solicited for a poll by a reputable pollster on, on my phone.

And, uh, they, there's a series of screener questions.

And then it turns out that I wasn't qualified to take the poll.

I was really looking forward to that.

Don't they know who you are?

This is what I'm saying.

Or maybe they did and that's why they disqualified me.

Sophie, women seem to be in Sherrill's camp, but enthusiasm is higher among Republicans, yeah?

Yes, and that's been something that we've also seen reflected in the different polls that have come out over the last few months.

Yeah, I think the enthusiasm for Chittarelli comes from the disillusionment that Democratic voters have had over the last four years, particularly with the last presidential race.

I think that maybe they don't see some of the policies that they want reflected in this candidate.

But for women, you know, reproductive rights is top of mind after Roe v. Wade was overturned.

Seeing abortion codified in New Jersey is something that people really care about here, especially, you know, new moms, young women.

That's something that they're looking for in their next candidate.

Yeah, you know, somebody mentioned to me, and they were a Democrat, but they noted that Jack Cittarelli's stages are very male-dominated.

Be interesting to see if that is in fact so.

Kenny, I know South Jersey is close to your heart because it gets you closer to Maryland or wherever you're from, but is South Jersey going to do it for Jack, you think?

They very well might.

I've been tailing Jack for the last couple of weeks, first in Haddon Township, and it should be noted that you had about as enthusiastic of a crowd at Jack's campaign stop in Haddon Township as you did across the street to the counter-Jack protests.

That made, I'm sure he certainly felt welcome that day.

But also to Burlington County, he packed out a tavern in Columbus.

It's mostly male, but don't count the women voters out because they were there about in as many, not as many numbers, but about, they were there.

Their presence was known.

- Yeah.

Sophie, let me ask you, there's a move on now to get a third debate because the second debate was five minutes short than it was supposed to be.

Do we need a third debate?

- I am going to say we should have a debate with New Jersey reporters again, just selfishly, solely based on New Jersey.

I think New Jersey politics should be covered by New Jersey reporters.

I think we ask better questions selfishly.

Do I think that a third debate is going to be helpful for voters?

I don't think so.

I think most of them have their minds made up already.

And if they don't and they haven't decided it because of the first two debates and they missed those five minutes, I don't see the next debate being the one that is the deciding factor for those undecided voters.

I think they're going to either make up their mind, you know, as they're casting their ballot, or they're going to stay undecided.

Kenny, do we need a third debate?

I go back and forth based on what Sophie said.

We should have a third debate for Jersey reporters and Jersey issues.

I remember the last debate I was at in New Brunswick, and one reporter who clearly is not a local brought up the Epstein files.

I was thinking to myself, what the hell do the Epstein files have to do with New Jersey?

So will it help the voters?

Nah, I doubt it because they probably heard this stuff before, at least in the first debate and in the debate last week in New Brunswick.

I don't know if a third debate will clinch it for either Mikey Sherrill or Jack Cittarelli.

Brent, did we get the sense that Cittarelli won the first debate, Sherrill won the second debate and now I guess we need a tiebreaker or do we need a tiebreaker?

I mean a third debate could bring us more haymakers, you never know.

Yeah, yeah.

More headlines at this rate.

Yeah, I don't know, I've heard mixed, I hear mixed things about this race all over the place.

Democrats being upset, Republicans being upset and one feeling more momentum, the other feeling more momentum.

This is like we're still two weeks out, almost two weeks out, and I still can't quite get a grip on what's going to happen, which is probably a good thing, you know, for voters in democracy to not to not know.

But they say it's a turnout game.

I hate saying that, but it's true.

It's a matter of who gets the most voters out now.

And it's really interesting.

I don't know.

This is the fourth governor's race I've covered, and this is by far the most fascinating.

There's so many weird layers and anger and polls, and it's a lot to make out.

Sophie, are you surprised that I think that one of the polls showed that only 3 percent of voters were undecided?

Is that surprising to you?

That's not so surprising to me.

I think we're in really partisan times right now and people are aligning with the party that they belong to.

I mean, there's not a lot of room for compromise right now.

We've seen, I mean, we're in the middle of a government shutdown because the two sides disagree about what's important to get done.

So I think that we're seeing that in the people in the voters as well.

It's not surprising to me at all that people are falling in line with the candidate that's for their party even if they don't agree with them 100%.

Kenny, in one word, who's gonna decide this election?

Which voting block?

The people who show up to the poll.

Oh, you said one word.

One.

Independence.

One word, Brent.

minority voters.

All right, so that is Ken Burns, Sophie Nieto-Munoz and Brent Johnson dropping science here today.

Thanks all of you.

Good to see you all.

That is Roundtable for this week.

By the way, someone asked me if we're still going to do live coverage on election night.

The answer is yes, comma, duh.

Details coming on that any day now.

We're on blue sky now.

Follow us there at davidcruzNJ and scan the QR code on your screen for some more roundtable.

For all the crew here at gateway center in downtown Newark, we thank you for watching.

We'll see you next week.

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