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♪ David: All aboard, it is the walk to Washington.

Who is getting their ticket punched?

It is "Reporters Roundtable."

I am David Cruz.

Our panel includes Joanna Gagis, Senior correspondent for NJ Spotlight News, Brent Johnson politics reporter for NJ advance media, and Ry Rivard, reporter for Politico NJ.

They will join us in just a bit.

But we begin with the field of candidates for governor coming into a little bit more of sharper focus after the first debate featuring all of the candidates.

Let's bring in one of the panelists from those debates this week, Micah Rasmussen, the director of the Rabinovich Institute for NJ politics at Rider University and a frequent analyst for us here.

Good to see you.

Micah: I am recovering.

How about you?

David: I am OK. Two debates this week.

A real study in contrasts.

I don't know why I expected the Democrats would be the ones who came out fighting, but it was the Republicans who bloodied the stage.

Micah: Yeah, absolutely.

And the one thing I will say about the Republican debate, they got exactly the debate they wanted.

They all had the same strategy, which was to come out swinging, not let each other finish a sentence.

That was the approach they wanted.

The tough part for me is understanding how anybody thought they were going to come out the better for it.

I thought it was almost like a pox on all their houses.

Democrats tried to show some substance, and I think gave a lot more of a contrast of reasons to maybe consider them.

I think Republicans are going to have to dig deeper if they want to show voters why they should be considered.

David: There was kind of mosh pit choreography there, including punctuated hands.

What did you take away?

I mean, first from I guess it was Sunday was the Democrats, then the Tuesday Republicans.

What did you take away from each?

Micah: on the Democratic side, there was a real line of demarcation between the candidates -- actually on the left of your screen and the right of your screen, I am sorry to say, but that was all drawn at random.

The people who are steeped in state policy every single day, the mayor's, the former Senate president, they were able to do a real deep dive on any state policy that we asked them about.

The federal legislators, I think they have some work to do and I think they probably would acknowledge that.

They were more discussing things at 10,000 feet.

You would ask them about school funding and they would say, well, let's talk about all day kindergarten.

I understand that completely from the perspective of translating it for voters, but as being able to drill down on policy, they need some homework.

They got to go to school.

The got to figure this out because there was a real difference between who could be fluent and who wasn't that fluent in state issues.

On the Republican side, there was some news.

Bill Stadia said, one term only.

I don't think anybody expected that.

He said he might not fund the state pension system, while the other strict -- the other three said we must abide by every promise we made.

There was contrast but it was harder to find them between all the yelling and screaming.

They all pretty much agreed there should be changes at the state department of education, like the federal department, get them out of the curriculum business.

John Bramnick tried to be the adult in the room but he was not above the shouting at each other either.

I know that's how he felt he needed to get his point across.

Maybe we bear some response ability for letting them all jumping over each other.

But when people are yelling at each other, that is exactly what they are going to do.

David: We always joke about John Bramnick having a show called "The Growlers."

He has that growly voice.

I thought he really needed to make an impression.

But I think he might have gone a little bit far because a couple of times he really shouted.

But the Democrats, you made an interesting point about the two representatives, and I think voters, particularly this election cycle, are going to recognize who is more nuts and bolts than the other guy.

Micah: absolutely, yeah.

We are looking for the person who is going to be the next person who is going to lead the state into the future.

Phil Murphy has been a very hands-on governor on all aspects of state policy.

He has left his mark across the state, across all departments.

He has not been a 2000 -- a 10,000 foot guy.

I really do believe we are going to put these candidates through the paces.

We are going to see who knows the post, who has the most ideas.

It is only about 100 days, but it is going to be a long 100 days.

I guess they need to meet twice more, all these candidates, to debate, those participating in public financing.

I think we will have the chance to see and hear more from them.

Again, as their ideas evolve.

This was the opening salvo and I think it was a good one but we have a long way to go.

David: It is sort of like a preseason game.

Real quickly, if you could pick one winner from each, can you?

I know that is an unfair question.

Micah: [laughter] I think anybody who was not counting him in the top tier has to go back and take another look at him, and that is exactly what is happening right now.

I think he did himself the most good.

On the Republican side, it is harder to discern.

Some of the Republicans were very much interested.

They were into it.

So, they liked this.

If that was your mode, you may have liked Spadea's delivery.

He was calmer, cooler, collected.

He does this for four hours a day every day.

So, I think there was something to be said for that for him.

But it was really a slugfest and I don't know if anybody got the better of it.

David: Let me get a coat -- couple quick panel questions in here.

Brent, you had one?

Brent: How much will Donald Trump, the fact he Zissou -- he did so well in New Jersey last year, does not hurt Democrats?

-- does that hurt Democrats?

Micah: I think what they have his enthusiasm.

I have noted for the last several years that Democrats are at this point in a 25 year majority listless, out of shape,, they haven't really been knocking on doors since COVID.

They are not in fighting for them.

They are at that decadent point in the majority cycle.

Republicans are hungry for it, they are leaner for it, and they definitely feel the wind at their sales given what prompted and what Ciattarelli did.

Democrats are still the far larger party.

They may be able to present themselves as more moderate, which is always an important thing in New Jersey, as you contrast it with some really extreme policies coming out of the White House that we have never seen before that Republicans are going to have to own and defend.

All in all, it may be a liability policy wise and perception wise, but I think it enthusiasm wise, it is helping them at this point.

David: Ry, you had a quick question?

Ry: What do you think are the number of votes that could swing this thing in the general?

It is fascinating how close Ciattarelli is.

What is your mouth right now?

Micah: That is -- what is your math right now?

Micah: That is a good question.

I am thinking more about the primary math where it is so close, somebody wins this by a couple hundred thousand votes, given how much smaller votes are in a primary, and how many candidates are driving those numbers up.

This is going to be a race within a couple hundred thousand votes, the number of votes that need to win the primary.

When we get to the general, I think you have to operate under the assumption that it is going to be another three or four point race, given the two statewide races.

It is certainly in everybody's interest to assume that it is, to assume it is going to be another 75 thousand votes, 100 thousand votes, something like that between the two candidates.

I think they have to operate as David: If it is.

Just over four months to go until the primary.

Micah Rasmussen, thanks.

Panel, welcome, good to see you all.

We can talk about those debates again in a minute, but Joanna and Brent, you were both in D.C. today, soon to be headed back to the dust from the walk to Washington.

Back on track after a few years.

Let's get a dispatch.

Jo, impressions?

Joanna: We had some big moments today.

It's funny, you think the train will be where the more exciting things happen, but there was a forum this morning with most of the candidates.

We were missing Steve Fulop, Democratic candidate, and Republican candidate Ed Darr.

Plus the new Inglewood Cliffs former mayor who just jumped into this race.

But the others were here.

Big takeaway moments from the conversation this morning That was purely focused on the economy and business was Bill Spade saying he wants to correct than next -- create the next NJ DOGE.

The moderator had to silence the room.

I got a huge reaction.

He said he wants to make it Florida without the humidity.

There was a lot of consistency between the messaging between Democrats and Republicans.

Everyone is talking affordability, everyone is talking cutting taxes, cutting costs.

It is funny how there just isn't much difference between both parties' talking points right now.

David: Brent, new venue this year.

The scene at the lobby bar is often quite lively.

I know you are an early to bed kind of guy.

In the Thursday night rowdiness?

-- any Thursday night rowdiness?

Brent: It was interesting having about eight gubernatorial candidates in the same space feet away from each other.

You don't know who to talk to, you don't know who is going to come shake your hand.

This feels different than past governors races, and you could feel that in Washington.

This is a real race on both sides featuring some of the biggest names in state politics.

There is a sense, there's not a lot of daylight between some of them, and some of them are trying to make big proclamations to get attention.

This is a race that I hope residents pay attention to over the next couple months because this is a real big one.

David: Spadea, you can tell he is very practiced.

He has a lot of catchphrases.

Florida without the humidity.

It is going to be interesting to watch.

Lots of interesting personalities involved in the race.

Let's move onto the debates from the past week.

All the candidates in place for the first time.

Ry, thoughts on the friendly Democrats or the pugnacious Republicans?

Ry: Micah was there, and I think we described it as a steel cage match, the Republican debate.

But there was in there some level of Nuance, and you could tell they were talking about schools, affordability, talking a little bit in depth about NJ transit.

I think you can see some very local issues.

Senator Bramnick name checked the school legislation.

There is some understanding that local issues is what will persuade New Jersey voters.

I don't think that should be ignored amid the chaos.

David: Jo, did somebody win either debate for you?

Joanna: I feel like the demented Craddick -- the Democratic debate felt very vanilla.

We noticed that they took shots.

There were moments.

I think Baraka stood out the most.

But they will have to split messaging.

I did hear Steve Sweeney come out and say he would not support -- he is in favor of deporting anyone who has committed a crime.

There are some splits.

But really, they are all in this pack right now and that is not going to work if any one of them wants to get ahead.

David: Brent, do you think a front runner has emerged on either side?

And who did you think came out the best?

Brent: I thought the most digs on the Democratic side, which is sometimes what people pay most attention to, was Baraka.

I am surprised they did not hand out brass knuckles on the Republican side.

That would have been interesting.

Spadea was more composed.

That was a tight race on the Democratic side.

A recent poll from the hill and Emerson College showed Cheryl has a two point lead but everyone else is closely behind her.

On the Republican side, Chiatterlli has a lead over his opponent.

There is no front runner, though Chiattarelli is the most you can say.

David: It is still about name recognition.

Folks haven't heard a lot of the specifics from the candidates.

I've heard of that guy.

That is where we are right now.

I want to talk about this Governor's latest slip of the tongue.

Did he or didn't he say that he and Misses Murphy were harboring or planning to harbor an undocumented woman they know in the space above their garage?

Republicans went bananas over this all week.

The governor walked it back a few days later.

And then again in D.C. Let's hear what he actually said, then we will come back and talk about it.

>> There is someone in our broader universe whose immigration status is not yet at the point that they are trying to get it to, and we said, you know what?

Let's have her live in our house above our garage, and good luck to the feds coming in to try to get her.

David: This Governor says some odd things.

He is the one who said it is above my pay grade.

If taxes are your issue, we are not your state.

Then he tries to explain it away.

What did we hear or not hear there that he clarified again this week?

Brent: Anyone who heard that initially, including editors at our office, he used an active verb.

It came away sounding like he was harboring an undocumented immigrant.

Nobody came away thinking that was hypothetical.

His office quickly said that is not the case, he was misinterpreted, he was talking about possibly doing something.

And that is the issue where maybe if you used the word maybe than let's, maybe that was the issue.

He said he was not suggesting that and he was taken the wrong way and he does not have an undocumented immigrant living in his garage.

Just bizarre.

This is what is going on today in political circles, with Trump chaos zone and you don't know what is going on.

It is a weird time to cover politics and a weird thing to try to explain to readers.

David: Ry, you just handed a full 24 hour news cycle to his opponents at a time when immigration is just smoking hot as an issue, no?

Ry: I think immigration is an incredibly nuanced issue.

I think there is differentiation that Democrats and Republicans make over violent, nonviolent, and there is a lot of nuance depending on who you talk to.

The way he did that and introduced it did not help anybody's discussion.

David: Jo, was anybody talking about this in D.C.?

Or how much were they talking about this in D.C.?

Joanna: I spoke with a lot of Republican senators the train.

Senator Declan O Scanlon called it incredibly arrogant.

And I will refer to Sweeney in the debate who said, look, we have to abide by the law.

We are not above the law.

The governor is not above the law.

That might have even been before Sweeney heard that comment.

A lot of Republicans were really angry about it, and I don't think there's a whole lot of Democratic leadership who stands behind that comment either.

I did not hear directly from any Democratic leaders about it.

I don't think anyone is too happy.

David: Jack Chiattarelli said he thinks that impeachment proceedings should begin because of what the governor said.

Republicans definitely took advantage of that one this week.

Big news off the Jersey shore also.

It looks like offshore wind is dead.

This was a big Murphy initiative.

What happened, and was it in fact the fatal blow?

Ry: Some of these projects are still technically alive, and one way to look at the Trump Administration's determination to halt progress -- projects is there are some projects that could be doing for years of study, come back with their studies, and pop back up under a Democratic administration years from now.

But the industry is not in a good place right now.

There have been financial issues separate from anything having to do with Trump for several years.

And then this Trump Administration effort to halt development is trickling down and creating even more uncertainty in the market.

There are a couple projects that are underway in New York.

The biggest one is in Virginia with a Republican governor.

David: You really need the federal government to be an active participant in this, don't you?

Ry: They lease the parts of the ocean.

They are in charge of most of the key environment all regulations under the Biden administration policies.

They would be providing generous tax incentives.

You have to have a federal partner to make this work in the United States.

.

David: The Republicans are cleaned the Democrats clocks.

Ry: This was a bipartisan issue to supposedly create clean energy and lots of jobs and develop a U.S. manufacturing sector, then you see people like Congressman who turned away from initial support, and the impacts and outrage from some people.

It has become very partisan and a big bet that Murphy made just fell into a trap of partisanship and uncertainty that is going to be hard to extract.

He is going to see there will not be a winter by off the New Jersey shore.

He spent seven years trying to make that happen.

David: It is like I will fix NJ Transit or it will kill me.

Joanna: This was a big topic today in this morning's conversation.

We heard almost everyone on the stage talk about the need for energy.

We heard Sweeney say we need pipelines in New Jersey.

Not a very democratic thing to say in this day and age.

He said imagine if we had done away with nuclear.

He said it had been on the table a couple of years ago, and look where we would be if we had done that, is what he said to the crowd.

It seems even Democrats are reconciling themselves to the idea that renewable energy, wind, solar, it might not be what they hoped it would be at this time.

David: If you talk to Democrats in the state, they will tell you they are the paragons of reform.

The devil, of course, is always in the darn details.

Example, making elections more fair by making it harder for you to run for office.

Brent, can you talk about the new law about petitions?

Brent: This has been one of a series of steps Democrats have taken to try to revamp a lot of the things at the cornerstone of how we do politics and democracy.

We had the law last year in the elections transparency act.

This may be a reaction to the county line going away.

They say if we are going to take away the county line, we will make sure we have better candidates, or maybe candidates who can get more signatures.

Not to say better candidates, but make it easier for the bigger candidates to get on board and harder for the smaller guy to get it.

It is just one thing after the other in Trenton of trying to do things differently, and a lot of progressives and other advocates saying this is not a good thing.

We are making it harder for people to exercise their rights.

David: N/A talk about the party line and stuff like that today at the governor's forum -- any talk about the party line and stuff like that today at the governor's forum?

Brent: It feels like a different world.

Darr and Phillips said they were not here because this is like an establishment event and we are trying to be antiestablishment.

But it is still hard to extract the establishment from New Jersey politics, a state where politics is so cornerstone.

David: Jo, you had an interesting piece, off-topic from all of this, the other day on lawmakers addressing chronic absenteeism in school.

Joanna: It is actually a problem that is not new.

It was addressed in the legislature before COVID.

Now when they look at the rates of absenteeism, it is 10% of the school year having been missed.

18 out of 180 days.

It has only gotten worse, and especially in poorer communities, black and brown communities.

Lawmakers, there was consent on both sides it is something that needs to be addressed.

They are looking at programs that are having success.

Community schools came up.

These are schools that receive funding.

A lot of it is federal.

Some of it is private.

But they really meet the needs of students that are outside of the school.

So, washing clothes, social services, sometimes transportation.

It is addressing trauma and trauma that the family may experience.

Things that really do fall outside of schools and their responsibility.

But in those spaces, they are finding that truancy has decreased significantly.

It is something that legislators are listening for solutions about.

There is no bill proposed as of yet.

David: Before we go today, Super Bowl Sunday.

Or as we like to call it, the start of baseball season.

Let's get your picks.

Three choices.

Eagles, chiefs, or couldn't care less?

Ry: Couldn't care less.

Brent: I couldn't care less.

I only care that Pete Alonso is once again a New York Met.

Joanna: My kids asked me this question.

I told them I am rooting for the commercials this year, and I never usually say that.

I am a Cowboys fan.

I know, in Jersey that is unheard of.

That is not true, there's a lot of us in New Jersey.

I am secretly rooting for Saquon Barkley.

He has had a significant season.

Just tremendous.

So I won't say the team, but I will say I am rooting for Saquon.

Patrick Mahomes, the guy is a trauma this athlete.

If they win, he has earned it.

Leave Taylor Swift out of it.

Kelce is a term it is athlete too.

-- a tremendous athlete to.

David: Jo, first time, long time.

That is "Roundtable" this; week.

A programming note.

Join Briana Vannozzi with a conversation with gubernatorial candidates Monday, February 10, 1:00 p.m. in conjunction with the Rutgers Institute for health and the New Jersey education fund.

That is Monday at 1:00 on the NJ Spotlight News YouTube channel.

Follow this show on X and find out what the rest of the NJ Spotlight News team is up to by subscribing to the YouTube channel.

I am David Cruise.

For all the crew here at Gateway Center in downtown Newark, we thank you for watching.

We will see you next week.

Announcer: Major funding for "Reporters Roundtable with David Cruz" is provided by RWJ Barnabas Health.

Let's be healthy together.

Rowan University.

Educating New Jersey leaders.

Partnering with New Jersey businesses.

Transforming New Jersey's future.

♪