Jason Perry: On this episode of "The Hinckley Report," leaders face mounting pressure to end the government shutdown as paychecks and benefits run out.

Utah's redistricting showdown escalates as the deadline for new maps looms.

And new polling reveals where Utahns stand on today's most pressing issues.

announcer: Funding for "The Hinckley Report" is made possible in part by the Cleone Peterson Eccles Endowment Fund and by donations to PBS Utah from viewers like you.

Thank you.

♪♪♪ ♪♪♪ Jason Perry: Hello, and welcome to "The Hinckley Report."

I'm Jason Perry, director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics.

Covering the week, we have Renae Cowley, partner with Foxley and Pignanelli; Jeff Parrott, politics editor with the Salt Lake Tribune; and Marty Carpenter, partner at Northbound Strategy.

Thank you so much for being with us.

I want to get right into one of the big topics of the day.

Government's still shut down.

We are now officially 31 days in, second longest shutdown in history.

Renae, what's going to happen here?

There's a lot of politics going on.

Talk about what's happening in Washington DC right now, as this shutdown doesn't seem to have an end in sight.

Renae Cowley: Yeah, you're right, Jason.

I don't see an end in sight for this one.

I predict this will be the longest, and unfortunately it won't be the last.

I think people on both sides of the aisle complain about government shutdowns and filibusters, but both parties have utilized both when it suits their needs.

We've seen through various polls that Americans blame Republicans more for the shutdown than Democrats, but interestingly enough, the Deseret-Hinckley poll showed that Utahns blame Democrats more than Republicans.

It's something that's not benefiting anyone.

I worry about the impacts to real American families, the ending of the SNAP benefits, impacts to air traffic controllers starting this week.

We're seeing many call out sick, and I just hope that, you know, these impacts to these already overburdened, understaffed air traffic controllers doesn't result in disaster.

Jason Perry: Let's talk about a couple of those groups, Jeff, because in Utah, the SNAP benefits, we're talking about the benefits going for food, there are 86,000 Utahns, and this ends on November 1.

Talk about that for just a moment because this is actually the first--there's a bunch of impacts.

This is one that people start feeling very personally.

Jeff Parrott: Renae is absolutely right.

Excuse me.

I think starting on Monday, folks are going to actually start feeling a lot more pressure here in Utah and across the country on the shutdown.

So, as folks go to see what they can afford at the grocery store next week, might sway some of those polls a little bit on who they're actually going to blame for the shutdown.

Let's not forget that Republicans control the White House, control Congress, control Senate.

But that doesn't mean Democrats also don't have a role here in holding up the shutdown, which is kind of where we're at, where Democrats are requiring, so far, say they're requiring Republicans to come to the table and start talking about healthcare costs.

Jason Perry: Go ahead, Marty.

Marty Carpenter: It feels like the shutdown has been mostly theoretical for the general public to this point, and that's supposed to change as soon as we get into November.

So, at this point, it's been mostly a communication game and political posturing to try to figure out how do we blame the other party and make sure that that sinks into the American consciousness?

But it really hasn't become real until next week, and that's when I think, I agree with you guys, we're going to start to see people say, "Oh wait, this is impacting some people, even if it's not impacting me, and now I need to maybe pay a little more attention and say who really is to blame for this?"

I think generally speaking, I know the polls may not support where I'm at on this, so maybe it presents a little bit of my bias.

I think the Republicans have done a very good job of pinning this on the Democrats.

They voted for it 13 times to try to get it through, try to get it through.

It's down now to about eight people, and specifically probably Senator Chuck Schumer who are blocking it.

And the more you can focus in on that, I think the more you have a winning message of saying Democrats are the ones shutting down the government.

Jeff Parrott: GOP certainly has continued their winning message since the 2024 election of being able to define Democrats much better than Democrats have been.

Marty Carpenter: And they've had one message, and that's what's really helped.

If you could stick on one message, this is a Democrat shutdown and it's Schumer who's doing it because of his own political needs.

He's putting himself ahead of people.

That's an easier message than anything the Democrats have been able to present.

Jeff Parrott: State leaders doubled down on that yesterday with the announcement of the $4 million that Utah is going to be putting into the Utah food bank over the next four weeks.

Jason Perry: Let's talk about that one for just a minute, because that was the state's effort.

Renae, our state legislature said they'll put $4 million in for the next eight weeks for as long as, you know, up until when they think the shutdown may end.

But this is going out, $500,000 a week will be sent to the Utah food bank.

Talk about that approach a little bit because it does seem like our legislative leaders in the state of Utah are starting to weigh in more and more on the shutdown.

Renae Cowley: It's not an insignificant amount of money too.

You look at what Utah did during other shutdowns and trying to keep parks open or during COVID and otherwise.

You know, Utah has such a great tradition of neighbor helping neighbor.

This is really an opportunity for our state and citizens to reaffirm that commitment of service, donating to the food bank, whatever that may look like for you and your family.

It's just so tragic that this manufactured crisis is completely unavoid--or is completely avoidable if Congress would step up and do their jobs.

And to Marty's point, yes, the polls may show that Americans are blaming Republicans more, but Democrats, seen as the defenders of these social programs, are far more likely to cave on this issue.

Republicans facing midterms, they're gonna need President Trump's support, and we have seen him cannibalize his own.

And so, if any Republicans start to waffle, they can probably face serious repercussions from the president.

And Trump's numbers might be waning a little bit, but they're still far higher than even Republicans in Congress and certainly Democrats nationwide.

Jason Perry: Let's break those numbers down for a minute.

Marty, let me give these to you.

So, we've been talking about the blame game just a little bit, but we asked Utahns who they blame for the shutdown, and here are the numbers you've all referenced a little bit right here, but these are just Utahns, who they blame: 34% of Utahns blame the GOP--voters blame the GOP, 42% blame the Democrats, 24% don't know.

Break those down just a moment.

Marty Carpenter: Well, the 24% is what jumps out to me, because that's the point I was making earlier.

I think this is a theoretical shutdown for a lot of people.

Like, I'd say 24% of the people don't necessarily not have an opinion on it as they probably don't even know that it was happening.

So first of all, they've got to have some consciousness of it going on to have an opinion on it.

I'm a little surprised that it's split that evenly, because in my mind I think the Democrats have not had as strong of a message as the Republicans have on this.

It's become pretty clear by the media I'm consuming, at least, that the Republicans are doing a better job, but those numbers would tell me that it's maybe not as strong of a job, at least to the number of people who are paying attention to this at this point.

Jason Perry: Jeff, just a couple more questions that were asked.

I'm curious how this plays into this overall strategy.

It was the approval ratings of Republicans in Congress and the approval ratings of Democrats.

This was interesting.

These are just Utahns, 46% of Utahns approve of the Republicans, 46% disapprove.

That's even among Republicans.

But what changes right here is on the Democrats.

This gets to the messaging a little bit, 63% of Utahns said they disagree and disapprove of Democrats, as opposed to 29% said that they approve.

Mostly even on the Republicans, definitely a disparity on the Democrats.

What does this say about who's winning the messaging?

Jeff Parrott: The other lay--so, back to those numbers real quick.

The other layer there is about 53% of Utah voters are registered Republicans.

So of those 53%, only 46% are saying that they approve of what Republicans in Congress are doing.

Like, that's the number that jumped out to me.

And I think if Republicans are going to continue to try to win this messaging fight, like, they're going to need to bring that 46% number up.

Jason Perry: Renae, one more thing.

It's interesting our own Senate President Stuart Adams has weighed in on this issue this week as he's talking about the SNAP benefits and some of the food bank contributions.

I just want to give you this quote.

Give me some sense of where this is because in some sense he's talking about his own party there and everyone else in DC.

This is what President Stuart Adams said.

He said, "The responsibility to end this shutdown lies with our federal partners in Washington.

Congress must stop the political games and reopen the government.

Every day the shutdown drags on, hardworking Americans are hurt.

It's time for Congress to do its job and put the American people first."

Renae Cowley: Yes, President Adams is exactly right.

And I think it's something that we see in the poll numbers over and over again, that Utahns trust our state legislature a lot more than Congress.

And it's easy to assign blame to Congress because they're the ones shutting down the government right now, and Utah taxpayers and Utah citizens are left filling in these gaps.

So again, such an avoidable crisis that's being manufactured.

And it's unfortunate that it's American families that are having to struggle right now.

We've seen plenty of polls also that show most Americans, less than half have emergency funds, rainy day funds, and the rest really can't make it past one paycheck, let alone two.

Again, it's just an unfortunate thing to see this happening, especially heading into the holidays, that it's taking the suffering of real American families, real Utahns, to hopefully force a compromise in Congress.

Jason Perry: Let's get into some very local issues as well.

Marty, we're still talking about redistricting in the state.

We've had a court--.

Marty Carpenter: We will be for a while.

Jason Perry: Okay, until the next census.

Give us a little update right now on what's happening with the court case in the state of Utah.

Marty Carpenter: Well, I may be the worst person on the panel to ask that question too, but essentially this is what keeps jumping out to me when I'm thinking about redistricting.

I think a lot of people can wrap their heads around the idea that voters passed Proposition 4.

Narrowly passed, but it did pass.

And I think they can wrap their heads around how the legislature may have seen need to make some adjustments to that to make it actually work in practicality.

And I think they can understand how people on the Proposition 4 side would go challenge it in court.

And I think they can even wrap their heads around the fact that the judge might say, "Hey, this doesn't pass muster."

What I don't understand and what no one's been able to really explain adequately to me, and I don't think adequately explain to the public is why does the judge get to not just throw them out but then sort of sit in a position of power to determine whether the next maps meet that challenge?

To me and I think most people who took 8th grade civics, she can rule, and you can make a judgment there, but then you're no longer in a position of authority related to that case.

That case is done and then the legislature can go change the maps.

That's where I think this gets difficult for a lot of people to think through, is why are we finding ourselves in a position where if we need to change the maps, somehow the judge is in a position where she gets to be the final arbiter of whether or not the new maps meet that challenge when she's already ruled on the previous maps.

Jason Perry: Which is leading to, Jeff, to some very interesting strategic moves from our legislature.

All right, so on our episode of "The Hinckley Report" last week we talked about an indirect initiative to get the question before our legislature.

That's been abandoned this week in favor of a referendum.

Talk about that.

Jeff Parrott: So the Republican-led referendum to essentially usurp the map that Republicans in the state voted for in the legislature, to Marty's point, like, the legal fight is only, I think, just starting again as Republicans who have dec--who picked Map C, who fought for Map C, who got Map C across the finish line in the legislature, and before Gibson--Judge Gibson can even make a ruling, they've already started an initiative to overthrow their own map, and so--.

Marty Carpenter: It's hard enough to follow the first storyline, nevermind the second storyline.

It turns into a soap opera I can't follow, right?

Jason Perry: Let's break the soap opera up just a little bit, Renae, because I'm gonna give you some of the procedural pieces here and talk about what's going to happen.

So, this referendum has until November 15 to get 141,000 signatures in 15 of 29 districts.

And tell us what this is going to do, because it seems like this referendum is on the bill the legislature just passed that created Map C. Renae Cowley: Yeah, it's so interesting to watch the GOP file a referendum against the map they endorsed, but the reality is they're trying to preserve their options and pushing back against Judge Gibson's orders.

So, they're really fighting on process too.

The Republican and the legislative arguments are kind of twofold, is that the process imposed by Judge Gibson was manufactured and didn't comply with Prop 4.

And then the other argument is that redistricting is left solely in the authority of the legislature.

Now, the plaintiffs on the other side are saying that anything short of Prop 4 is deemed counter to the citizens initiative, and also they're citing the Supreme Court case saying that that's not compliant.

So, now you have the legislature arguing a constitutional argument and you have the plaintiffs arguing a Supreme Court case.

Either way, this is going to end up in a higher court.

Right now we're just playing a game of musical chairs on timelines of whose map is gonna be on top when that final deadline occurs, and it could very well be one more bullet left in the chamber for the legislature to push back that filing deadline to give them a little bit more time.

Historically, filing deadlines have always been in March, and they've moved it up to January, so there could be reason for them to push it back again.

Jason Perry: Jeff, what are the practical implications of this if they get their signatures?

This referendum that will be on the ballot in 2026 which would reinstate the existing maps.

Jeff Parrott: Deemed unconstitutional already, and so we're kind of in a tough spot.

Renae Cowley: This is something that I've been deep in the trenches on as I've even been advising candidates on what their next approach should be.

And it's really anyone's guess.

As you mentioned, the confusion runs deep, not only with voters, but also with insiders and with politicians.

When our members of Congress don't even know who their constituents are gonna be for their reelection, it is causing a lot of chaos and confusion.

But you know, the arguments on either side are quite interesting, and I think that Sean Trende, the Republican expert that the legislature hired to make arguments in court, was really interesting.

He argued that in Map C, which the legislature just passed, that districts 2 and 3 are actually more competitive for Democrats and lean more Democrat than the districts won by both Matheson and McAdams.

And so, that really kind of takes the wind out of the sails of the plaintiffs to say that Republicans are gerrymandering for political gain.

Marty Carpenter: The one I feel sorry for is Celeste Maloy, because her district seems to change every time, and she seems to be the the only one who has to run every 18 months for some reason.

So, at some point I'm sure she in particular would like to know, "Who's in my district and how do I go introduce myself to them if that's changed from the two races I've already had to run?"

Jeff Parrott: Utahns need a conclusion.

This isn't anything that's going to go away anytime soon, like Marty said, We're--2030's getting really close.

We're going to have another census.

Our Tribune reporting shows that there's a good chance that Utah could pick up a fifth congressional seat, meaning we would be completely scrapping whatever map happens in the next 6 weeks, 18 months, whatever.

Marty Carpenter: Do we wrap this whole argument up first or do we have the Olympics first?

Which one's gonna be?

Renae Cowley: Even in 2028 we could have new maps depending on if we get a ruling, an emergency ruling from the Supreme Court or it goes all the way to the United States Supreme Court.

So, we could have three different elections with three different maps in the next six years.

Jason Perry: Interestingly, Marty, before we leave this one, we did do some polling recently about this Prop 4 to see where people were versus where they are now.

And I'll just tell you, in 2018 when we asked the question about Prop 4, 50.

80% of Utahns said that they supported it, 22% said that they did not.

But what's interesting here in the most recent poll, this is just this past month, it went to 44% of Utahns supporting it or would support the same thing now, 20% opposed.

What's interesting is 36% said they don't know now.

And why is that?

Marty Carpenter: That might just be the result of the confusion about what's going on about it to a certain extent.

I also think when you go back to the 2018 numbers, there was not really an organized campaign in opposition of Prop 4.

And so, to a certain extent, what you have are people understanding it maybe somewhat better, at least being more familiar with it, or seeing at the very least the mess that can come from it, and saying, "Hey, I'm not sure I'm as supportive of it as I would have been when it was actually on the ballot."

And you know, if we ever had to run a campaign on this again, and I'm sure somebody will at some point in favor of it and opposed to it, the opposition to it is going to be much more organized, and I would imagine that those newer numbers are more reflective of the way it would go.

Renae Cowley: If the referendum is successful in gathering their signatures and they certify for the ballot, we will see this ballot fight again, and I think Republicans will take it a lot more seriously this time in mounting their opposition.

But with an already cluttered ballot with the union referendum on the ballot, re-elections, it's going to be--perhaps Amendment D we might see back on the ballot as well.

It's going to create a whole new dynamic to the type of money, the amount of money poured into this upcoming election and the type of turnout impacts we'll see as well.

Marty Carpenter: And I think more and more Republicans in the state are likely to sort of resonate or have the message resonate with them that, hey, this is a complex thing to do anyway, and when it comes to gerrymandering, it's becoming a little more evident to them that the effort on Prop 4 may have had some element of trying to gerrymander a Democratic district in a state that's overwhelmingly Republican, and I don't think that resonates with most voters in the state, particularly Republican voters.

Jason Perry: Is that true with people you're interviewing?

You're doing such a great job, Jeff, when you're hearing from people throughout the state.

Does that ring true, that sort of concern and the maybe confusion about the process?

Jeff Parrott: Well, as we talked about Proposition 4 messaging campaigns, there's no pro-Prop 4 messaging campaign happening right now like there was in 2018.

And so, the only thing Utahns are hearing right now is that "Prop 4 was a problem.

That's why we had to change it.

Now the courts are getting in the way."

And so, there was a maybe a one-sided fight back in 2018.

I wasn't here then, but there's certainly a one-sided fight going on right now.

Jason Perry: I want to get to some issues happening very, very close to home.

Renae, we're talking about the issue of homelessness here in the state of Utah.

It's something that dominated a lot of conversation this last legislative session.

It certainly is continuing now, but the state with our governor talking about this as well have put forward a proposal for a campus sort of here in the state of Utah, a 1,300 bed campus in the Northpoint neighborhood north of Salt Lake.

Talk about this particular effort, because it is a big one, and it is a big initiative that is getting some support.

Renae Cowley: It's a huge initiative, and I think you hear a lot of people worried about a large center like this.

They're calling it a camp, they're worried about the safety of these individuals, and even the ethical standards for moving people to these facilities.

But the reality is that leaving people to suffer and die on our city streets is inhumane.

These people need services, they need treatments, and they're not getting it by sleeping on the streets.

The reality is too that these homeless individuals are not the only victims of homelessness.

It's also businesses, families, and visitors to our state who suffer.

My firm has an office downtown, and for years we've struggled with illegal camping, with discarded needles, with other human things left behind, and it's just something that has impacted our business as well.

You know, Niederhauser has been doing the Lord's work on this.

He has the hardest job in Utah politics, I believe, as the homeless coordinator.

And, you know, now that we have Tyler Clancy stepping into that role--we're definitely gonna miss him in the legislature.

As a 28 year old, really young elected official and a member of law enforcement, he brings such a unique perspective.

But I think he'll take that experience also into this next role, and I'm just grateful that Salt Lake City and Utah is trying to do something to help these individuals.

Jason Perry: Break that one down a little bit too, Marty.

So we did, as Renae just said, Tyler Clancy is going to step down after the end of this next legislative session to take up that role as the homeless coordinator for the state of Utah.

Marty Carpenter: It's been an issue he's sort of carved out as his specialty in the short time that he's been in the legislature.

Obviously that's a springboard to going to run this for the state.

Terribly thankless job, because it's a really hard problem to solve, otherwise someone would have solved it right now.

But I think that what we're essentially seeing is the pendulum kind of finding its way to the center, that it's not a matter of just put people in jail, and it's also not a matter of just leave people in the parks doing drugs openly in the streets.

We need to find people the services that they need, and maybe that's a little jail-like, where we're saying you need to go get these services.

But it has to start with treatment and helping people get their lives back in order.

Jason Perry: So Jeff, talk about the political ramifications of this.

It's very interesting.

There's some opposition in Northern Utah about the location of this, and this has sort of become something that's not necessarily just a Salt Lake issue anymore.

It's something that has become a sort of a statewide political issue that our legislature is trying to tackle.

Jeff Parrott: Salt Lake leaders would certainly say they could use some more help from a statewide effort.

I also think we're going to see maybe a bit of change in policy as Tyler gets into this new role and, you know, keeps fighting on a fight that he's been working on for several years now in the legislature.

There's debate in the country and in the state on how do we address homelessness?

Is it a housing first?

Do we find somewhere for places for people to go?

Do we get them out of the cold?

Do we get them out of the heat?

And then we provide treatment or is it the jail model where then treatment is all but forced on folks?

And so, I think we're gonna see, you know, like Marty said, it is a wildly complicated problem that is multifaceted and goes through every level of government, and Tyler's going to have quite the task on his hands.

Marty Carpenter: And part of that is that not every person who's homeless has the same issue to be resolved, right?

Some people are just down on their luck and they need a place to go and they need some food.

Some people are, you know, addicted to drugs, and with that comes crime often, and so we've got to handle that a different way.

So, this is not something where, oh, here's the solution.

The solution is probably multifaceted and one that takes some real thought.

But I think the public has an appetite for this to get done because what they see is we continue to put money toward it and nothing seems to be getting better, so how are we going to actually make a difference?

Renae Cowley: Marty, it's in fact getting worse.

We see the numbers of homelessness rising actually, and you can attribute that to a whole bunch of different things, of a rise in mental health problems and drug addictions and and, frankly, inflation and just the cost of living as well.

You know, we've also seen Tyler Clancy kind of carve out what I believe will be his position moving forward too when he served in the Pioneer Park coalition.

And that is the go to jail or get services.

And this is not a solvable problem, but you know, my hope is that providing more services and more beds in a facility will help to put a small dent at least in this issue.

Jason Perry: Let's get into municipal elections.

We have some opportunities to vote coming up for November 4, and Jeff, I just want to make sure this is sort of our public service announcement as well.

This time the ballots have to be declared by 8 o'clock on the night of the 4th.

But unlike previous years, it needs to be mailed in so that it arrives by that time as well.

So, give us a sense of what's happening in these elections, ballots in particular, people-- conversation happening again about whether or not we're okay with mail-in ballots.

Jeff Parrott: I think at this point if you still have your ballot at home, I'd start looking out where you can go vote in person.

I wouldn't wait this late and then hope that the mail gets my ballot, especially after what we saw in 2024, where ballots were showing up late after getting diverted.

And so, I think if you haven't voted yet, I'd start looking to see where I can go vote in person or at least drop off your ballot in person.

Jason Perry: You're right on, send those in.

One more issue before we close.

It's interesting, Marty, we have Senator Thatcher retiring.

It's interesting, because, you know, he's been there since 2011.

In 2025 he changed his party to the Utah Forward Party.

So, this is that third party, but this is very unique and interesting.

What's happening with that party as they seek to replace Senator Thatcher?

Marty Carpenter: Well, I think this is along the lines of what we've been talking about, redistricting.

To a certain extent, for most people, it feels like we're making it up as we go along, and to a certain extent maybe we have to be comfortable with that.

But it feels like there's not really a process that was sort of set because this is a party that's not that well established historically, so what are they going to do to make it happen?

It's a little more convoluted, even though I think the messaging on it was like, oh, everyone gets to vote and it's that simple.

It's not quite that simple.

Jason Perry: So, Renae, it really isn't.

Give us a couple of the parameters, because it's a unique approach to replacing him.

Renae Cowley: Yes, Michelle Quist, party chairwoman, described it as unprecedented, and that's exactly the word I would use.

They're asking candidates to submit to a background check or review their social media accounts, submit a 1,500 word personal essay, a personal statement video, timeline of personal accomplishments, go through a vetting process by party leadership, and then they're also prohibited from using any type of paid advertisement, which includes printed campaign materials, mailers, and otherwise.

So, yes, unprecedented is the word I would use.

Jason Perry: It's so interesting, and everyone in that district can vote, right?

It's not just based on party necessarily.

We got those parameters.

Renae Cowley: Anyone can vote.

The candidates do have to register with the Utah Forward Party, but when the Utah Forward Party only makes up 0.1% of all Utah voters, it might be a little difficult even rounding up enough Utah Forward Party members to hold an election.

Jason Perry: It's gonna have to be the last comment tonight.

Thank you so much for your insights, and thank you for watching "The Hinckley Report."

This show is also available as a podcast.

Thank you for being with us.

We'll see you next week.

announcer: Funding for "The Hinckley Report" is made possible in part by the Cleone Peterson Eccles Endowment Fund and by donations to PBS Utah from viewers like you.

Thank you.

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