>>> NOW, AS THE YEAR COMES TO A CLOSE, WE LOOK AHEAD TO 2024, WHICH IS SET TO BRING A WORLD OF CHALLENGES FROM TURMOIL IN THE MIDDLE EAST, A GRUELING BATTLE IN UKRAINE, TO GROWING TENSIONS IN TAIWAN.

AND ON TOP OF THAT MORE THAN HALF THE GLOBAL POPULATION IS HEADING TO THE POLLS IN A GROUNDBREAKING YEAR OF ELECTIONS, THE MOST IMPORTANT OF WHICH WILL BE IN THE UNITED STATES AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE A TRUMP-BIDEN REMATCH.

THE DEPUTY EDITOR JOINS TO DISCUSS THE TEN TRENDS TO WATCH IN 2024.

>> CHRISTIANE, THANKS.

TOM SANDERS, THANKS SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

YOU WRITE IN THE WORLD AHEAD IN 2024 THAT IT IS A PIVOTAL YEAR FOR DEMOCRACIES.

WHY SO?

>> WELL, WE THINK IT'S THE FIRST TIME IN CUBAN HISTORY WHERE MOST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD, MORE THAN HALF OF THE GLOBAL POPULATION LIVE IN A COUNTRY THAT WILL HOLD AN ELECTION IN 2024.

SO IT'S ABOUT 4.2 BILLION PEOPLE.

AND THE POPULATION OF THE WORLD AS YOU KNOW IS 8.1 BILLION, SO THAT MEANS MORE THAN HALF, MOST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD ARE LIVING IN A COUNTRY THAT WILL HAVE A NATIONAL ELECTION IN THE COMING YEAR.

AND THAT'S NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE.

AND SO YOU'D SAY THAT SURELY IS A TRIUMPH FOR DEMOCRACY, BUT I THINK IT'S GOING TO PUT A SPOTLIGHT ON THE NATURE OF DEMOCRACY AND THE FACT THAT THERE IS MORE TO DEMOCRACY THAN VOTING.

THAT THERE'S, YEAH, SURE, A GREAT BIG QUANTITY OF VOTING HAPPENING, BUT THERE'S QUANTITY OVER QUALITY WHEN IT COMES TO DEMOCRACY.

>> YOU HAVE A QUOTE IN THERE I WANT TO PULL OUT.

IT SAYS IN THEORY IT SHOULD BE A TRIUMPHANT YEAR FOR DEMOCRACY.

IN PRACTICE IT WILL BE THE OPPOSITE.

WHY?

>> WELL, BECAUSE A LOT OF THESE DEMOCRACIES ARE EXTREMELY FLAWED.

SO AT THE ECONOMIST, OUR SISTER COMPANY, THE EIU, ACTUALLY PREPARES SOMETHING CALLED A DEMOCRACY INDEX AND GIVES EVERY DEMOCRACY AROUND THE WORLD A SCORE.

AND SOME COUNTRIES ARE CLASSED AS FULL DEMOCRACIES.

SO I'M TALKING TO YOU FROM LONDON AND WE'RE GOING TO HAVE AN ELECTION IN BRITAIN IN 2024, AND IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT WILL BE CHUCKED OUT.

THAT'S ONE OF THE FEATURES OF DEMOCRACY, THAT YOU SHOULD BE ABLE TO VOTE TO CHANGE THE GOVERNMENT OR CHANGE THE LEADERSHIP.

AND IF YOU GO TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM, WE ALSO KNOW THERE'S GOING TO BE AN ELECTION IN RUSSIA IN 2024.

AND I CAN TELL YOU WHAT THE RESULT OF THAT ELECTION IS GOING TO BE.

RIGHT NOW VLADIMIR PUTIN IS GOING TO BE -- HE'S GOING TO WIN.

HE'S GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE PRESIDENT OF RUSSIA.

AND HE WOULDN'T BE HAVING THAT ELECTION AT ALL UNLESS HE WAS SURE HE CAN GUARANTEE THAT OUTCOME.

SO THAT'S NOT A DEMOCRACY, THAT'S A SHAM.

AND YOU HAVE OTHER COUNTRIES IN THE MILITARY MORE OR LESS AUTHORITARIAN.

AND RIGHT BELOW THE MIDDLE YOU GET THE FLOOR DEMOCRACIES.

THE TWO BIGGEST DEMOCRACIES OF THE WORLD INDIA AND THE UNITED STATES BOTH VOTING NEXT YEAR ARE BOTH CLASSIFIED AS FLAWED DEMOCRACIES FOR ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

IT'S POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTCOME TO CHANGE THE LEADERSHIP OF THE COUNTRY BUT THERE ARE OTHER PROBLEMS WITH THEIR DEM OCRATES.

>> BEING HERE IN THE UNITED STATES I'VE GOT TO ASK WHAT IS THE DEFINITION OF FLAWED AND WHY DOES THE UNITED STATES MEET THAT FLAWED DEMOCRACY?

>> THERE'S NO SINGLE DEFINITION.

IT'S A QUESTION HOW MANY POINTS YOU SCORE ON THE RANGE OF METRICS.

ESSENTIALLY IN THE CASE OF THE USS THERE'S A FEW PROBLEMS.

THURSDAY VER CLEARLY A BREAK DOWN OF TRUST IN THE WHOLE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS.

WHETHER YOU'RE ON THE LEFT OR RIGHT YOU THINK THE PROCESS IS BROKEN IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

AND THERE'S ALSO THINGS LIKE -- YOU KNOW, AS AN OUTSIDER IT SEEMS EXTRAORDINARY IN AMERICA POLITICIANS ARE ALLOWED TO DRAW THE BOUNDARIES OF THEIR ELECTIONS.

YOU HAVE PARTISAN BOUNDARY COMMISSIONS.

AND THEY'VE GONE BACK TO THE SITUATION YOU GET IN MANY OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD.

THAT ESSENTIALLY MEANS YOU CAN DRAW ELECTORAL BOUNDARIES THAT CAN GUARANTEE YOUR GUY ALWAYS WINS.

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

THE ONLY WAY YOU CAN LOSE IN A SITUATION LIKE THAT IS IF YOU ARE PRIMARIED BY SOMEONE MORE EXTREME FROM YOUR OWN PARTY.

THAT'S A RECIPE FOR POLARIZATION, WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT WE'VE SEEN IN AMERICA.

AND SO THAT IN TURN LEAD TO A BREAK DOWN IN TRUST IN THE OVERALL DEMOCRATIC PROCESS.

TO BE FAIR I THINK THE U.S. SCORES 7 AND A BIT OUT OF 10, WHICH IS PRETTY GOOD.

IT'S ONLY JUST A FLAWED DEMOCRACY.

>> YOU ARE ALSO A PUBLICATION THAT SAYS THIS ELECTION COMING IN THE UNITED STATES IS INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT.

IT'S ONE IF NOT THE MOST CRUCIAL, OUR FUTURE IS ON THE LINE.

NOW, WE HAVE HEARD THAT OVER AND OVER AGAIN FROM 2016 TO 2012, 2020.

SO WHAT'S DIFFERENT ABOUT IT THIS TIME YOU THINK?

>> WELL, A FEW THINGS.

I THINK LAST TIME DONALD TRUMP WAS PRESIDENT HE TRIED TODAY DO VARIOUS THINGS, AND A LOT OF THE THING HE TRIED TO DO HE WAS PREVENTED FROM DOING.

AND THIS TIME AROUND HE SEEMS TO BE PLANNING TO ENSURE THAT HE CAN -- HE CAN MAKE MORE OF THE CHANGES HE WANTS TO, YOU KNOW, POLITICIZE THE SORT OF EXECUTIVE -- THE THINGS LIKE THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE.

HE WANTS TO CHUCK OUT EVERYBODY AND REPLACE THEM WITH HIS OWN PEOPLE WHO CAN THEN PROSECUTE HIS ENEMIES AND THAT SORT OF THING.

SO THAT'S VERY CONCERNING.

AND ALSO HE'S MAKING NO ILLUSIONS ABOUT HOW THE END OF THE TERM IF HE WINS AGAIN HE'D LIKE TO STAY ON A BIT LONGER.

I THINK THERE'S A WORD FOR THAT WHEN YOU GET TO STAY IN POWER FOR AS LONG AS YOU LIKE.

AND I SEEM TO REMEMBER YOU WEREN'T TERRIBLY KEEN ON THAT ARRANGE LT IN THE 18th CENTURY.

ANYWAY, THERE'S THAT.

I THINK THE OTHER BIG DIFFERENCE IS THE WORLD NOW IS SORT OF MUCH MORE AWARE OF THE GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS OF A SECOND TRUMP PRESIDENCY.

IF AMERICANS WANT TO VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP IN AMERICA THAT'S FINE.

THAT'S UP TO THEM.

IT'S THEIR DEMOCRATIC CHOICE.

BUT -- BUT THE GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS WOULD POTENTIALLY BE HUGE.

HE'S TALKING ABOUT PULLING OUT OF NATO.

OBVIOUSLY HE WANTS TO PULL THE PLUG ON SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE.

WE DON'T KNOW WHAT HE'D DO OVER TAIWAN.

>> I WONDER WHAT THE CONSEQUENCE IS OF RE-ELECTING A PRESIDENT THAT WAS DISCONTENT WITH THE RESULTS LAST TIME AND ACTIVELY TRIED TO OVERTURN THOSE RESULTS.

IF HE WAS TO GET BACK IN POWER, WHAT DOES THAT SIGNAL I GUESS TO THE WORLD ABOUT US, THE GRAND EXPERIMENT THAT IS DEMOCRACY?

>> YEAH, EXACTLY.

I MEAN AMERICA IS NOT A GREAT ADVERTISEMENT FOR DEMOCRACY RIGHT NOW AND WOULD BE AN EVEN WORSE ONE IF YOU HAVE AN ELECTION DENIER WHO COMES BACK IN AND SAYS MAYBE WE DON'T NEED ELECTIONS IN THE FUTURE.

THE WEIRD THING ABOUT IT IS THE 2020 ELECTION, HE'S CAST DOUBT ON THE BIG LIE IS THAT HE REALLY WON THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.

BUT MIRACULOUSLY THE CHEATING ONLY HE CLAIMS HAPPENED FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.

AND ALL OF THE SENATE SEATS AND THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVE SEATS, ALL OF THAT WORKED FINE.

I MEAN IT SEEMS VERY IMPLAUSIBLE THAT THE MEDDLING ONLY HAPPENS IN ONE PART OF THE TICKET WHEN PEOPLE ARE VOTING ON THE SAME PIECE OF PAPER.

SO, YEAH, THE WHOLE THING IS DEEPLY IMPLAUSIBLE.

AND, YOU KNOW, IT -- IT WOULD JUST SEND AN ODD MESSAGE TO PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD TO WHO AMERICA IS TRYING TO PREACH THE VIRTUES OF DEMOCRACY.

THE PLACE WHERE DEMOCRACY REALLY IS DEPENDING ON RIGHT NOW IS UKRAINE.

AND IT'S REALLY CLEAR REPUBLICANS DON'T WANT TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UKRAINE FINANCIALLY AND MILITARILY IN THE WAY IT HAS BEEN.

AND THAT'S VERY PERILOUS NOT JUST FOR UKRAINE BUT FOR, YOU KNOW, A EUROPEAN DEMOCRACY THAT IS IN GRAVE DANGER.

>> I WONDER SINCE YOU MENTION UKRAINE, RIGHT NOW ONE OF THE CENTRAL PREMISES FOR PRESIDENT BIDEN IS THAT WE NEED TO SUPPORT DEMOCRACIES SUCH AS UKRAINE WITH ARMS.

WE NEED TO SUPPORT THE DEMOCRACY THAT IS ISRAEL WITH OUR SUPPORT IN THE ISRAEL-GAZA CONFLICT.

RIGHT?

AND I WONDER AS THESE TENSIONS KEEP GETTING STRAINED FURTHER AND FURTHER AND AS THE PUBLIC MIGHT EVOLVE THEIR THINKING ABOUT WHAT THEY'RE WILLING TO STOMACH, WHAT DOES THAT DO TO THAT SORT OF UNDERLYING PRINCIPLE THAT SEEM TUESDAY BE INBINDING FACTOR HERE WHICH IS WE NEED CORE DEMOCRACIES?

>> YEAH, EXACTLY.

AMERICA HAS GONE THROUGH ISOLATIONIST PERIODS IN THE PAST AND SEEMS TO BE GOING INTO ONE NOW.

WHAT I WOULD SAY PARTICULARLY IN REGARD TO UKRAINE, BECAUSE THAT SEEM TUESDAY BE WHERE THERE IS MORE RESISTANCE TO CONTINUED FUNDING.

AND WE KNOW REPUBLICANS HISTORICALLY HAVE BEEF WITH UKRAINE IN PARTICULAR.

JUST BEING COMPLETELY LOOKING AT AN ACCOUNTANCE VIEW OF THIS THIS IS AN INCREDIBLE DEAL FOR THE UNITED STATES TO BASICALLY WEAR DOWN THE MILITARY OF ONE OF YOUR BIGGEST GEOPOLITICAL RIVALS WITHOUT HAVING TO PUT AMERICAN SERVICE MEN AND WOMEN IN THE LINE OF FIRE AT VERY LOW COST BECAUSE IT AFFECTS THE SUBSIDIES GOING TO UKRAINE GOING STRAIGHT -- FOR A LARGE PART OF IT IT'S GOING STRAIGHT TO YOUR OWN ARMS COMPANIES.

SO IT'S SUBSIDY.

IT'S CREATING JOBS AT HOME IN AMERICA, AND IT'S WEARING DOWN THE RUSSIAN MILITARY AT VERY -- IT'S JUST AN INCREDIBLE DEAL.

SO EVEN IF YOU DON'T CARE AT ALL ABOUT DEMOCRACY BUT YOU DO CARE ABOUT, YOU KNOW, AMERICA'S CONTINUING MILITARY SUPREMACY OVER OTHER POWERS, I DON'T KNOW WHY YOU WOULDN'T WANT TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UKRAINE.

SO, YEAH, IT'S A MYSTERY TO ME.

AND, YES, I REALIZE THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT BORDER SECURITY AND SO FORTH.

BUT YOU CAN HAVE BOTH, RIGHT?

I MEAN THIS IS A GREAT DEAL.

AND AMERICA SHOULD BE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT UKRAINE JUST FOR THAT REASON, FOR ITS OWN SELF-INTEREST.

>> YOU KNOW, IN THE MAGAZINE YOU POINT OUT HOW IN AFRICA RIGHT NOW THERE HAVE BEEN NINE REGIME CHANGES IN THE PAST THREE YEARS.

WHAT IS GOING ON WITH THE SHIFT WHERE PEOPLE MIGHT BE IN SOME WAYS OKAY WITH MILITARY STRONGMEN?

>> YES, SO THERE'S QUITE A WORRYING LOAD OF POLLING COMING FROM SOUTH AFRICA WHERE PEOPLE ARE VERY UPSET WITH THE WAY THEIR DEMOCRACY IS GOING, THAT THEY HAVE THE ANC IN POWER EVERY INS DEMOCRACY WAS INTRODUCED, A MULTIRACIAL DEMOCRACY, AND YET THEY HAVE BENEFIT PROBLEMS AND LOTS OF UNEMPLOYMENT, THE POWER GRID DOESN'T WORK, AND SO FORTH.

THIS MAY BE AND SEEMS VERY LIKELY TO BE SOME FIRST OF ACTION IN WHICH THE ANC GETS LESS THAN 50% OF THE VOTE.

POLLING SHOWS THEY WANT ORDER AND JOBS.

I THINK IT WAS 70% OF SOUTH AFRICAN VOTERS SAID THEY MIND ACCEPT A STRONG MAN SHOWING UP AND RULING.

AND EVEN IF THAT WAS UNDEMOCRATIC AS LONG AS THEY SORT OF FIXED THE ECONOMY AND GOT JOBS GOING AGAIN, PEOPLE ARE REALLY AT THE END OF THEIR TETHER ON THIS.

ACTUALLY YOU SEE THE SAME.

NOT QUITE TO THE SAME EXTENT, BUT YOU DO SEE PEOPLE SAYING, WELL, ACTUALLY DEMOCRACY IS ALL FINE AND GOOD.

BUT WHAT WE REALLY CARE ABOUT IS THIS ISSUE OR THAT ISSUE.

AND IT'S VERY OFTEN AN ECONOMIC STABILITY OR JOBS OR WHATEVER.

AND SO I THINK THERE'S A DANGER FOR THOSE IN SIGNIFICANT DEMOCRACIES THAT WE SORT OF TAKE IT FOR GRANTED AND WE THINK THINGS WOULD BE OKAY IF WE HAD A MORE AUTHORITARIAN LEADER AS LONG AS THEY CAN MAKE OTHER THINGS WORK WELL.

>> DO YOU SEE ANY BRIGHT SPOTS IN TERMS OF DEMOCRACY LOOKING OUT AT 2024?

>> I HAVE TO SAY I SEE VERY FEW BRIGHT SPOTS ALL TOGETHER LOOKING AT 2024.

IT'S A WORLD INCREASING ZONES OF IMPUNITY WHERE NOBODY IN PARTICULAR IS IN CHARGE.

YOU'VE GOT IRAN'S PROXIES CAUSING TROUBLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST.

YOU HAVE THIS SHORT WAR BETWEEN AZERBAIJAN AND ARMENIA.

YOU CAN WALK FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE RED SEA, 6,000 KILOMETERS, JUST PASSING THROUGH COUNTRIES THAT HAVE HAD A COUP SINCE 2020.

SO THE WORLD SEEMS TO BE PREPARING FOR A SITUATION WHERE THERE'S MORE CONFLICT IN THE FUTURE RATHER THAN LESS.

THE UNIONI POLAR MOMENT WHERE AMERICA WAS THE SOLE SUPER POWER HAS DEFINITELY PASSED.

AND THERE ARE NOW MANY GREAT POWERS, LARGE POWERS SORT OF VYING FOR INFLUENCE.

AND THEN THE MIDDLE POWERS, THIS MAKES THE MIDDLE POWERS THE SORT OF SWEETENED POWERS LIKE SAUDI ARABIA AND IRAN AND TURKEY, GIVES THEM A LOT MORE CLOUT AS WELL.

SO THERE'S JUST THE GENERAL KIND OF FEELING IF YOU WANT TO DO SOMETHING LIKE INVADE YOUR NEIGHBOR, NOW'S A GOOD TIME.

AND VENEZUELA IS TALKING ABOUT INVADING GAYANA.

THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A MOVE TOWARD MUCH MORE DISORDER AND CONFLICT.

>> IS THERE A NEW COLD WAR IF THERE WERE TO BE THE SORT OF MULTI-POWERS, MULTIPOLLS.

IS THERE A COLD WAR BREWING NOW BETWEEN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES?

AND WHAT DOES THAT LOOK LIKE GOING FORWARD?

>> ABSOLUTELY THERE IS A COLD WAR.

IF YOU'VE THEN -- YES, YOU'VE GOT A MULTI-POLAR WORLD AND YOU'VE GOT A CHINA LED BLOC WHICH DOES INCLUDE RUSSIA AND WESTERN COUNTRY LED BLOC AND OTHER COUNTRIES TOO WHO SORT OF WANT TO BE FRIENDS WITH BOTH SIDES.

VIETNAM IS DOING A GREAT JOB OF PLAYING BOTH SIDES.

SOUTHEAST ASIA HAS BEEN FRIENDS WITH CHINA AND ALSO BE FRIENDS WITH AMERICA.

IT'S VERY MUCH A COLD WAR VIBE.

THE BIG DIFFERENCE, THOUGH, BETWEEN THIS AND THE ORIGINAL COLD WAR IS THAT THERE WAS NO TRADE TO SPEAK OF BETWEEN THE WEST AND THE SOVIET UNION DURING THE ORIGINAL COLD WAR.

AND THERE'S AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF TRADE AND ECONOMIC LINKAGE BETWEEN CHINA AND THE WEST.

JUST THINK OF YOUR iPHONE AGAIN.

IT'S ASSEMBLED IN CHINA AND HAS COMPONENTS FROM ACTUALLY ALL OVER ASIA.

BUT THIS IS A VERY DIFFERENT SITUATION BECAUSE SUPPLY CHAINS ARE SO DEPENDENT ON CHINA.

SO THIS IS WHY WE HEAR A LOT ABOUT DECOUPLING AND DERISKING AND COMPANIES TRYING TO MOVE THEIR SUPPLY CHAINS AND THEIR FACTORIES OUT OF CHINA.

IT'S ACTUALLY INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT.

BECAUSE EVEN IF YOU MOVE YOUR ASSEMBLY -- AND THIS IS WHAT APPLE IS DOING WITH iPHONES.

IT'S ASSEMBLING SOME OF THEM IN INDIA NOW AND MOVED SOME MANUFACTURING TO VIETNAM.

THE FACT IS A LOT OF COMPONENTS AND MATERIALS ARE COMING FROM CHINA.

IF THERE WERE TO BE A WAR IN TAIWAN AND THERE WERE TO BE SANCTIONS IMPOSED I'M NOT SURE TRYING TO BUILD THINGS IN VIETNAM OR INDIA WOULD HELP BECAUSE I DON'T THINK YOU'D BE ABLE TO GET ANY COMPONENTS OUT OF CHINA.

>> AND TAIWAN IS ONE OF THOSE PLACESWISE AN ELECTION THIS YEAR.

>> IT IS.

THE TWO BIG ELECTIONS WE THINK ARE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL NEXT YEAR ARE TAIWAN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR AND THE U.S. AT THE END OF THE YEAR.

AND IN TAIWAN THERE ARE ESSENTIALLY THREE CANDIDATES.

AND THE TWO OPPOSITION CANDIDATES WHO LOOK LIKE THEY MIGHT HAVE GOT TOGETHER, WHICH WOULD HAVE BEEN BAD NEWS FOR THE INCUMBENT, FROM THE DPW, THE RULING PARTY RIGHT NOW, THEY HAVE BEEN ABLE TO GET TOGETHER.

SO IT DOES MEAN THE DPP CANDIDATE, WILLIAM LAI, SEEMS LIKELY TO WIN.

AND HE'S A MORE INDEPENDENCE LEANING CANDIDATE WHEREAS THE OTHER TWO SAY, NO, WE SHOULD BE FRIENDS WITH CHINA AND SO ON.

SO WHATEVER HAPPENS, IT REALLY IS GOING TO SET THE MOOD NOT JUST ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY ON U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS.

BECAUSE IF I'M XI JINPING AND WILLIAM LAI DOES WIN, THAT DOES SORT OF MAKE SLIGHTLY MORE PRO-INDEPENDENCE NOISES AS HE WANTS TO DO, THEN OF COURSE THE FIRST THING I WANT TO DO IS ESSENTIALLY SEE WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF I DO SOMETHING PROVOCATIVE ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT.

YOU KNOW, IS AMERICA THE OVERSTRETCHED SUPER POWER?

HAS IT GOT TOO MUCH ON ITS PLATE WITH UKRAINE AND GAZA AND, YOU KNOW, TROUBLE IN THE RED SEA AND ALL THIS SORT OF THING.

SO THE FIRST THING I'M GOING TO WANT TO DO IS NOT JUST SEE HOW TAIWAN RESPONDS BUT SEE HOW AMERICA RESPONDS.

AND I'M NOT SAYING THERE'S GOING TO BE AN INVASION OF TAIWAN IN 2024.

THAT SEEMS INCREDIBLY UNLIKELY.

BUT ESSENTIALLY THIS IS GOING TO SET, YOU KNOW, THE BROADER FRAMEWORK FOR U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS, THE OUTCOME OF THAT ELECTION.

SO IT'S WORTH WATCHING VERY CLOSELY.

>> SO YOU END YOUR LIST ON A POSITIVE NOTE, AND LET'S END OUR CONVERSATION THERE, TOO, ABOUT POSSIBLE UNIFYING MOMENTS IN 2024.

WHERE DO YOU SEE THAT HAPPENING?

>> WELL, THERE'S A FEW.

BUT I'M AFRAID I'M A BIT SKEPTICAL ABOUT MOST OF THEM.

ONE OF THEM IS THE OLYMPICS.

AND THE OLYMPICS CAN BE EVEN FOR A JADED OLD CYNIC LIKE ME CAN BE SURPRISINGLY MOVING TO SEE ALL THE BEST PEOPLE IN A PARTICULAR SPORT FACING OFF.

AND THIS IS ACTUALLY REALLY COOL.

BUT THE 2024 OLYMPICS ARE LIKELY TO BE OVERSHADOWED ABOUT ARGUMENTS ABOUT WHAT ABOUT ATHLETES FROM RUSSIA AND BELARUS AND ARE THEY ABLE TO COMPETE AND DO THEY COMPETE UNDER A NEUTRAL FLAG AND ALSO VLADIMIR PUTIN SAYS HE WANTS TO HAVE HIS OWN VERSION OF THE GAMES CALLED THE FRIENDSHIP GAMES WHICH IS FOR RUSSIA AND ITS FRIENDS.

THAT WHOLE THING HAS SEEMED TO BECOME A POLITICAL FOOTBALL ALREADY AS IT OFTEN DOES.

AND THEN THERE'S THE POSSIBILITY OF AMERICANS RETURNING TO THE MOON IN 2024.

THERE'S SUPPOSED TO BE THIS MISSION BLASTING OFF IN NOVEMBER -- NOVEMBER 24.

IT MAY GET PUSHED INTO NOVEMBER 2025.

THIS SHOULD BE INSPIRING.

IT'S GOING TO INCLUDE THE FIRST BLACK MAN, THE FIRST WOMAN, AND THE FIRST NORTHERN AMERICAN TO LEAVE EARTH ORBIT.

AND SO SURELY THAT'S A CAUSE FOR CELEBRATION.

TO SOME EXTENT IT IS, BUT I THINK AGAIN IT'S LIKELY TO BE OVERSHADOWED BY THE POLITICAL MESSAGING AROUND THIS.

THIS IS VERY RIM NISSANT OF THE COLD WAR AND VERY REMINISCENT OF THE WARM UP MISSIONS DONE BEFORE APOLLO AND THE LANDING IN 1959.

I THINK THIS MAY ONCE AGAIN LOOK LIKE AMERICA FLEXING ITS TECHNOLOGICAL MUSCLES AND SAYING, LOOK, WE'RE THE BEST AT THIS.

AND SAME WAY WE'RE AT THE BEST AT GOING TO THE MOON, WE'RE SUPERIOR IN OTHER WAYS, TOO.

I THINK IT'S ACTUALLY GOING TO BE VERY REMINISCENT OF THE COLD WAR AS WE ARE NOW IN A ANOTHER COLD WAR.

I'M AFRAID OF THE CHANCES OF THAT LEADING -- IN THEORY YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE FOUR MEMBERS OF THE HUMAN RACE IN ONE PLACE AND LOOKING BACK AT THE EARTH AND SEEING ABSOLUTELY EVERYBODY ELSE.

AND THAT'S, YOU KNOW, PEOPLE FIND PICTURES OF THE EARTH AND IT'S GOING TO BE MOVE BUT I EKT SPK THAT'LL BE POLITICALLY CHARGED AS WELL.

>> THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> THANK YOU.