>>> NEXT, HOW DOES RANDOMNESS SHAPE OUR LIVES FROM THE PERSONAL TO THE GEOPOLITICAL?

BRIAN CLASS, A POLITICAL SCIENTIST AND PROFESSOR AT UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON IS THE AUTHOR OF THE NEW BOOK "FLUKE, CHANCE, CHAOS, AND WHY EVERYTHING WE DO MATTERS."

WALTER ISAACSON SPEAKS WITH HIM ON WHAT CHAOS THEORY CAN TEACH US ABOUT THE WAY THE WORLD REALLY WORKS.

>> THANK YOU, CHRISTIANE.

AND BRIAN CLOSS, WELCOME TO THE SHOW.

>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME HERE.

>> YOUR NEW BOOK IS CALLED "FLUKE" SUBTITLED CHANCE, CHAOS, AND WHY EVERYTHING WE DO MATTERS.

LET'S START BY JUST EXPLAINING WHAT IS A FLUKE?

>> A FLUKE IS A HIGHLY CONSEQUENTIAL EVENT THAT HAPPENS BY CHANCE OR IS ARBITRARY OR RANDOM.

AND SO I ARGUE IN THE BOOK THAT OUR WORLD IS SHAPED BY THESE AND OUR LIVES ARE SHAPED BY THESE MUCH MORE THAN WE IMAGINE, BUT WE JUST PRETEND OTHERWISE BECAUSE IT'S MUCH NICER TO IMAGINE WE HAVE NEAT AND TIDY STORIES TO MAKE SENSE OF OUR WORLD AND OUR OWN LIVES.

>> WELL, ONE EXAMPLE I THINK YOU USE IS THE ARAB SPRING, A TUNISIAN VENDOR.

EXPLAIN HOW THAT DOES THAT?

>> YOU'VE GOT SORT OF A MOMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST IN THE LATE 2010 WHERE THERE'S A LOT OF PEOPLE PRETTY ANGRY AT THEIR DICTATORSHIPS.

AND ALL OF A SUDDEN ONE OF THOSE ANGRY PEOPLE DECIDES TO LIGHT HIMSELF ON FIRE IN CENTRAL TUNISIA.

AND THIS PARK CREATES A CONFLAGRATION THAT BASICALLY CONSUMES THE ENTIRE MIDDLE EAST, LEADS TO SEVERAL REGIMES COLLAPSING, AND THEN ALSO THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR, WHICH HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE DIED IN.

AND SO WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THIS, YOU THINK ABOUT, YOU KNOW, WOULD THIS HAVE HAPPENED BUT FOR THIS TRIGGER IN TUNISIA.

AND I THINK THIS IS SORT OF THE WAY OUR WORLD WORKS IT'S PARTLY BETWEEN ORDER AND DISORDER WHERE YOU HAVE THESE TRENDS AND SORT OF ASPECTS WHERE YOU GET TOWARDS WHAT'S CALLED THE TIPPING POINT AND EDGE OF CHAOS.

AND THEN A SINGLE THING CAN TIP YOU OVER THAT EDGE AND CREATE AN EXTREMELY CONSEQUENTIAL EVENT THAT SHIFTS HOW THE WORLD WORK.

>> LET ME PUSH BACK AND TALK ABOUT THINGS WHICH YOU ADDRESS IN THE BOOK.

WHICH IS LET'S TAKE THE ARAB SPRING.

THE WORLD SEEMED READY FOR THAT.

AS YOU SAID ALL THE KINDLING WAS THERE FOR IT.

HAD THAT ONE TUNISIAN EVENT NOT HAVE HAPPENED, ISN'T IT LIKELY THERE STILL WOULD HAVE BEEN AN ARAB SPRING AND THESE RANDOM EVENTS DON'T ACTUALLY CAUSE THINGS?

THEY'RE JUST A TINY SPARK AMID THE OTHER SPARKS?

>> I DON'T THINK SO AND I THINK THE NATURE OF THE SPARK MATTERS AS WELL.

RIGHT?

SO THE VISCERAL NATURE OF THIS PROTEST DID CREATE PROTEST MOVEMENTS IN TUNISIA, AND THEN THOSE SPREAD FURTHER.

WHAT YOU ARE RIGHT ABOUT THERE'S THING CALLED SELF-ORGANIZED PHYSICALITY OR THE SAND PILE MODEL, WHICH I'M BORROWING FROM PHYSICS.

IF YOU IMAGINE ADDING A GRAIN OF SAND TO A PILE OVER AND OVER AND OVER, EVENTUALLY THAT PILE OF SAND GETS SO TALL THAT A SINGLE GRAIN CAN CAUSE AN AVALANCHE.

AND WHAT I'M ARGUING IS THAT IN THE ARAB SPRING CASE, FOR EXAMPLE, THE GRAIN OF SAND, THE SAND PILE WAS REALLY,ERALLIY TALL.

SO IT JUST TOOK THAT ONE EXTRA PERSON TO CAUSE THE COLLAPSE.

NOW, I THINK THERE'S A PROBLEM HERE BECAUSE I THINK WE HAVE DESIGNED A WORLD THAT IS PARTICULARLY PRONE TO THESE AVALANCHES BECAUSE THE SAND PILE IS EXTREMELY HIGH BY DESIGN.

AND WHAT I MEAN BY THAT IS THAT YOU HAVE THIS SORT OF SYSTEM THAT OPERATES WITH OPTMIZATION AND EFFICIENCY AS ITS MAIN PRIORITIES.

AND THIS MEANS WE HAVE NO SLACK IN THE SYSTEM.

SO, YOU KNOW, A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO A GUST OF WIND HIT A BOAT IN THE SUEZ CANAL AND TWISTED IT SIDEWAYS AND IT CAUSED OVER $50 BILLION OF ECONOMIC DAMAGE, WHICH WAS NEVER POSSIBLE FOR ONE BOAT TO DO IN THE PAST.

AND SO WHAT I THINK WE'RE DOING IS WE'RE BASICALLY CREATING A WORLD IN WHICH THOSE AVALANCHES, THOSE SPARKS AS I PUT THEM BEFORE ARE MORE CONSEQUENTIAL AND MORE LIKELY TO UPEND OUR SOCIAL LIVES.

>> SO IS THE PROBLEM THE SAND PILES THAT HAVE BECOME PRECARIOUS, OR IS THE PROBLEM THE ONE GRAIN OF SAND THAT HAPPENS TO COME IN?

>> SO IT'S BOTH, AND THEY COULDN'T EXIST WITHOUT EACH OTHER.

BECAUSE IF YOU HAVE SOMEBODY LIGHT THEMSELVES ON FIRE IN NORWAY TOMORROW IT'S NOT GOING TO CAUSE A REVOLUTION BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS SLACK AND PEOPLE ARE HAPPY, RIGHT?

NOW, IN THE MIDDLE EAST THERE ARE PEOPLE UNHAPPY WITH THE DICTATORSHIPS FOR A VERY LONG TIME, AND THERE WEREN'T MASS PROTESTS AND WEREN'T LARGE SCALE CIVIL WARS, AND ALL OF A SUDDEN THEY HAPPENED ALL AT ONCE.

I GO THROUGH THE EXAMPLE IN THE BOOK OF SOMETHING SIMILAR TO EXPLAIN THIS DYNAMIC OF THE ON SET OF WORLD WAR I WHICH MANY HISTORIANS HAVE DEBATED, AND I TALK ABOUT -- THE STANDARD STORY IS THE ASSASSINATION OF ARCH DUKE FRAND FUR NAND AND THAT'S THE FLUKE THAT TRIGGERS THE WAR.

NOW, OF COURSE YOU HAD TO HAVE ALL SORTS OF OTHER THINGS IN PLACE FOR THAT TO ACTUALLY HAPPEN, A SERIES OF ALLIANCES THAT MADE IT MORE LIKELY TO A SINGLE DEATH COULD ACTUALLY CREATE A WORLD CONFLICT.

BUT I ALSO TALK ABOUT IN THE BOOK HOW HE ALMOST DIED IN A HUNTING ACCIDENT MANY MONTHS BEFORE THAT WHEN HE WAS IN ENGLAND.

AND IF THAT HAD HAPPENED I DON'T KNOW IF WORLD WAR I WOULD HAVE STARTED, BUT I CERTAINLY DON'T KNOW IT WOULD HAVE HAPPENED IN THE SAME WAY.

I THINK WHAT WE OFTEN DO WE HAVE THESE BINARIES CATEGORIES, THE WAR STARTS OR THE IT DOESN'T.

WHAT I'M ARGUING IS THE WAY THE WAR STARTS IS IMPORTANT.

IF IT'S TRIGGERED BY ASSASSINATION OR IF THE GUY GETS KILLED IN AN ACCIDENT, IN A HUNTING ACCIDENT, THAT WILL AFFECT WORLD HISTORY.

I THINK INSTEAD WHAT WE TRY TO DO IS IMPOSE THESE STORYBOOK NARRATIVES HOW THE WORLD WORKS, AND THEY WRITE OUT THIS NOISE I THINK IS HIGHLY CONSEQUENTIAL IN THE WAY THE WORLD WORK.

>> ONE OF THE EXAMPLES YOU USE IS DONALD TRUMP BEING AT THE WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENTS DINNER AND BEING THE SUBJECT OF A BARACK OBAMA SCATHING COMIC ROUTINE, AND SO HE DECIDES TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT.

USING THAT TYPE OF, OKAY, THAT WAS FLUKE THAT HAD LOTS OF CONSEQUENCES, DOESN'T THAT HAVE A BIT OF A DANGER OF PEOPLE LIKE ME WHO WERE COVERING THINGS AT THE TIME, WE MISSED SOMETHING BIG IN THIS COUNTRY WHICH IS A DEEP RESENTMENT THAT WAS GOING TO LEAD TO SOMEBODY LIKE DONALD TRUMP AND FOR THAT MATTER DONALD TRUMP WAS SOMEHOW NEVER GOING TO GET IN THIS RACE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

DON'T WE MISS THE IMPORTANCE OF THE BIG FORCES WHEN WE LOOK FOR THE FLUKES?

>> YES, I AGREE WITH YOUR HIGHLIGHTS THERE BECAUSE ONE OF THE THINGS WE NEED TO BE AWARE OF IS HOW HIGH THE SAND PILE IS TO GO BACK TO THE ANALOGY.

ONE IS SOMETIMES THERE'S MUCH MORE ARBITRARY AND ACCIDENTAL FORCES THAT DO MATTER.

AND WE'RE CONSTANTLY TOLD TO FOCUS ON THE SIGNAL AND IGNORE THE NOISE.

AND THE ARGUMENT I'M MAKE SG THE NOISE ACTUALLY HAS PRETTY PROFOUND CONSEQUENCES FOR THE WAY THE WORLD WORK.

IT'S ALSO THINKING WHY WE MORE PRONE TO FLUKES THAN WE ARE IN THE PAST.

I THINK WE'VE UPENDED THE SITUATION IN THE WAY GLOBAL AFFAIRS USED TO WORK COMPARED TO HOW IT WORKS TODAY.

FOR EXAMPLE, WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE VAST STRETCH OF HUMAN HISTORY, MOST PEOPLE DEALT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THEIR DAILY LIFE.

THEY HAD TO DEAL WITH THE QUESTION OF HOW YOU FIND FOOD OR WHETHER YOU WERE GOING TO BE EATEN BY A SABER-TOOTH TIGER.

WE HAVE A WORLD WHERE STARBUCKS IS ALWAYS THE SAME BUT DEMOCRACIES ARE COLLAPSING AND RIVERS ARE DRYING UP.

AND I THINK BACK TO YOUR POINT, TO YOUR QUESTION IT'S SUGGESTING WE CREATED A WORLD WITH LESS SLACK, SO THAT YOU HAD THESE LONG-TERM TRENDS THAT CREATE WORLDS IN WHICH FLUKES CAN ACTUALLY HAVE HIGH CONSEQUENCES.

SO IF WE HAD DEALT WITH THE PROBLEM OF THE LINGERING RESENTMENT IN THE AMERICAN PUBLIC, THEN TRUMP MIGHT HAVE HAD A JOKE TOLD ABOUT HIM, HE WOULD HAVE RUN FOR OFFICE AND HE WOULD HAVE GOTTEN 0% OF THE VOTE.

I THINK THE COMBINATION OF ORDER AND DISORDER, FLUKES AND TRENDS, THEY'RE THE WAY THE WORLD ACTUALLY WORKS.

I THINK WE TEND IS TO FOCUS ON THE BIG EXPLANATIONS, THE LONG-TERM EXPLANATIONS FOR SOCIAL CHANGE.

AND I THINK THESE PIVOT POINTS THAT CAN START WITH A JOKE DO ACTUALLY DO CHANGE THE WORLD.

>> YOU SAY THAT ONE OF THE MISTAKES WE MAKE IN LOOKING AT HISTORY IS THAT WE IMPOSE -- I DON'T KNOW TO USE THE WORD IMPOSE BUT WE HAVE A NEGATIVE ARC AND THAT LEADS TO NEGATIVE THEORIES.

EXPLAIN TAT TO ME.

>> HUMANS ARE BASICALLY PATTERN MACHINES.

WE EVOLVE TO HAVE BRAINS THAT LATCH ONTO PATTERNS, AND THAT'S BECAUSE HAVING A FALSE POSITIVE WHERE YOU THINK THERE MIGHT BE A SABER-TOOTH TIGER LURKING IN THE GRASS WHEN YOU SEE IT RUSTLING THAT'S NOT GOING TO LEAD TO YOUR DEATH.

BUT IF YOU HAVE A FALSE NEGATIVE WHERE THERE IS A PATTERN AND YOU DON'T DETECT IT, SO YOU SEE RUSTLING IN THE GRASS AND YOU DON'T THINK THERE'S A TIGER THERE, YOU WILL DIE.

SO EVOLUTION IS BASICALLY OVERENGINEERED OUR BRAINS TO BE SENSITIVE TO PATTERNS.

NOW, THIS RELATES TO CONSPIRACY THEORIES BECAUSE SOMETIMES RANDOM EVENTS HAPPEN.

AND ALSO SOMETIMES SMALL CHANGES CAN HAVE REALLY BIG IMPACTS, AND OUR BRAINS ARE BASICALLY ALLERGIC TO THAT LINE OF THINKING.

SO WHEN YOU LOOK AT SOMETHING LIKE PRINCESS DIANA'S DEATH WHICH WAS A BIG MOMENT IN BRITISH HISTORY, THERE'S THIS SORT OF RESISTANCE TO THE IDEA THAT YOU HAVE, YOU KNOW, A SMALL BANAL CAR ACCIDENT CAUSING THIS MAJOR EVENT IN GEOPOLITICS OR IN WORLD AFFAIRS.

THE SAME IS TRUE FOR QAnon.

WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT CONSPIRACY THEORIES LIKE QAnon, IT'S A STORY THAT MAKES SENSE IN A SORT OF HIDDEN TRUTH, A HIDDEN PATTERN THAT YOU CAN BE INDUCTED INTO.

AND THE DEBUNKERS, THE PEOPLE WHO TELL YOU FACTS ABOUT CONSPIRACY THEORIES, THEY'RE TELLING YOU THERE IS NO STORY.

OUR BRAINS ARE LIKELY TO GRAVITATE NOT JUST TO A STORY BUT A REALLY GOOD STORY.

I THINK THIS IS THE REAL DANGER ABOUT CONSPIRACY THEORIES IS WE TEND TO MAKE SENSE OF THESE SEEMINGLY UNRELATED DATA POINTS WITH A STITCHING TOGETHER THAT ENDS UP BEING A REALLY SEDUCTIVE CONSPIRACY THEORY.

IT'S ONE OF THE REASONS WHY THEY'RE SO STICKY.

ONE OF THE PROBLEMS WE HAVE IT'S SO HARD TO DEBUNK THEM BECAUSE ANIMAL, WHICH IS WHAT HUMANS ARE, IGNORE THE STORY, THERE IS NO STORY.

I THINK THAT'S ONE OF THE WAYS THAT IS MOST USEFUL TO THINK ABOUT THE PERSISTENCE OF THESE THEORIES THAT SWAY OUR POLITICS AND UNFORTUNATELY CREATES REAL WORLD ACTION BASED ON THE LIE.

>> WHEN IT COMES TO THE REACH OF CONSPIRACY THEORIES, HOW DOES THE U.S.

COMPARE TO THE REST OF THE WORLD?

>> THE U.S. HAS MORE OF A PROBLEM WITH CONSPIRACY THEORIES THAN OTHER PEER COUNTRIES.

AND THAT'S BECAUSE POLITICIANS HAVE POPULARIZED THEM MORE THAN OTHER PEER COUNTRIES.

I LIVE IN THE U.K., I'M FROM THE U.S., AND YOU SEE A MAINSTREAM OF CONSPIRACY THEORIES WITHIN THE POLITICAL PARTIES MORE IN THE UNITED STATES THAN IN THE REST OF EUROPE AND SO ON.

SO I THINK THIS IS DANGER THAT DOES EXACERBATE THE PROBLEM WHEN ELITES OR PEOPLE WHO ARE IN POLITICS START TO PEDDLE CONSPIRACY THEORIES AS A WAY TO WIN VOTES.

AND THAT IS A UNIQUELY AMERICAN AFUNAMNEN.

IT'S A PHENOMENON MUCH MORE PROMINENT TO THE UNITED STATES THAN OTHER PEER DEMOCRACIES.

>> HAS IT GOTTEN WORSE IN TERMS OF CONSPIRACY THEORIES, OR WAS IT NO WORSE THAN IT WAS DURING THE SALEM WITCH TRIALS?

>> WE'VE ALWAYS BEEN PATTERN DEDEKZ MACHINES.

THE DIFFERENCE IS HOW WE GET INFORMATION.

WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE INTERNET, I THINK THERE'S A REALLY PROFOUND SHIFT THE INTERNET HAS PRODUCED WHICH HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE.

EVERY OTHER FORM OF TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION AROUND INFORMATION HAS EXPANDED THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO CAN CONSUME INFORMATION.

SO THE PRINTING OF PRESS, THE RADIO, TELEVISION, ETSET WRAUSH ALL OF THAT CREATED A LARGER AUDIENCE.

BUT THE PEOPLE WHO COULD PRODUCE INFORMATION AND THEORIES ABOUT THE WAY THE WORLD WORKS WAS ACTUALLY PRETTY SMALL.

AND YOU HAD TO SEEK OUT CONSPEARICISM IN THE DISTANT PAST.

NOW YOU CAN SPREAD MISINFORMATION YOU HAVE THE PROLIFERATION OF CONSPIRACY THEORIES WE'RE EXPOSED TO MORE OFTEN AND ALGORITHMS THAT AMPLIFY THEM.

SO A PERSON WHO WOULD NOT HAVE SOUGHT OUT A CONSPIRACY THEORY IN THE PAST IS NOW BEING SHOWN ONE BY DESIGN FROM TECH ALGORITHMS AND SO ON.

I DON'T THINK IT'S WE'VE CHANGED, I THINK IT'S THE WAY OUR INFORMATION PIPELINES HAVE SHIFTED, AND THAT'S MADE THEM MORE INFLUENTIAL IN MODERN POLITICS.

>> ONE OF THE WAYS THAT PEOPLE THINK ABOUT HOW HISTORY CHANGES IS PARTLY GRAND FORCES, IT'S PARTLY THE WORLD OF PEOPLE, IT'S PARTLY AS YOU DO IN THIS BOOK THE WORLD OF FLUKE.

BUT ALSO AS YOU DESCRIBE IN THE BOOK THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY, SUDDENLY MOVING TYPE PRINTING COMES ALONG AND YOU CAN HAVE A RE-FORMATION IN EUROPE.

TELL ME HOW YOUR BOOK FITS INTO THE ROLE TECHNOLOGY IS CHANGING OUR LIVES.

>> TECHNOLOGY SAHUGE DRIVER IN OUR EXPERIENCE.

I THINK WHAT WE DON'T APPRECIATE IS THE TIMING.

WE TALKED ABOUT THE PRINTING PRESS AND HOW IT LOCKED IN THE LANGUAGE OF A SPECIFIC SNAPSHOT IN TIME, AND THE LANGUAGE HAS CHANGED ADLOT LESS SINCE THEN BECAUSE TECHNOLOGY SOLIDIFIED HOW THE WRITTEN WORD HAD TO BE PRINTED, RIGHT, IT BECAME STANDARDIZED.

I THINK ABOUT THIS A LITTLE BIT WITH THE PANDEMIC RIGHT NOW.

LET'S IMAGINE THE EXACT SAME VIRUS MUTATED IN WUHAN IN 1985.

THE ECONOMY WOULD HAVE BEEN RADICALLY DIFFERENT COMPARED TO HOW IT UNFOLDED IN THE 2020 PANDEMIC BECAUSE WORKING FROM HOME ON ZOOM WAS IMPOSSIBLE IN 1985, RIGHT, SO TECHNOLOGY IS ONE OF THESE THINGS THAT HAS THESE GRAND FORCES.

YES, THERE'S GOING TO BE INNOVATION AND SOME OF THEM ARE GOING TO HAPPEN REGARDLESS.

I THINK SOME INNOVATIONS ARE INEVITABLE.

FIRE WAS ALWAYS GOING TO BE DISCOVERED BY HUMANS.

THE TIMING MIGHT HAVE BIP A LITTLE DIFFERENT, BUT THE MOMENT OF THE DISCOVERY IS REALLY IMPORTANT AS IS THE PERSON WHO DISCOVERS IT.

I THINK, FOR EXAMPLE, SMART PHONES WOULD HAVE UNFOLDED A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY IF STEVE JOBS HAD NOT BEEN ONE OF THE PEOPLE WHO WAS BEHIND THEIR INNOVATION AND POPULARIZATION.

SO I THINK THERE'S A SORT OF INTERPLAY BETWEEN THESE GRAND FORCES, THESE INDIVIDUALS, THESE ACCIDENTS, AND THE MOMENTS WHERE THE ERAS IN WHICH THE TECHNOLOGY EMERGES.

AND ALL OF THEM MATTER.

I THINK IF YOU JUST HOLD ONE OF THEM CONSTANT YOU DON'T ACTUALLY HAVE THE EXACT SAME WORLD UNFOLD.

>> ONE OF THE GREAT TECHNOLOGICAL FORCES THAT'S ABOUT TO HIT US OR HAS ALREADY HIT US IS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ESPECIALLY PERSONAL A.I., WHERE EVERYTHING CAN BE PERSONALIZED.

I CAN USE CHAT BOT AND NEWS ORGANIZATIONS CAN OR PEOPLE TRYING TO RUN POLITICAL CAMPAIGNS CAN.

HOW IS THAT GOING TO FIT INTO YOUR THEORY?

>> YES, SO I THINK IT'S A DANGER.

AND THE REASON I THINK IT'S A DANGER IS YOU GO BACK TO THE PHILOSOPHER DAVID HUMES SEVERAL HUNDRED YEARS AGO, HE BASICALLY RAISED THIS PROBLEM HOW CAN YOU KNOW THE PATTERNS OF THE PAST ARE GOING TO BE PREDICTIVE OF THE PATTERNS OF THE FUTURE.

AND THAT WAS ALREADY SOMETHING PEOPLE WERE WORRIED ABOUT WITH REASON IN THE PAST.

NOW I THINK THEY HAVE EVEN MORE REASON TO BE WORRIED ABOUT IT BECAUSE OUR WORLD IS CHANGING SO QUICKLY.

AND YET A.I.

IS STILL TRAINING ON PAST PATTERNS, RIGHT?

THIS IS THE KIND OF STUFF MACHINE LEARNING IS DERIVED FROM TRAINING DATA AND SO THIS IS HOW THE WORLD WORKS.

THE PROBLEM IS YOU CAN START TO GET INTO TROUBLE, "A," IF YOU THINK YOU HAVE CERTAINTY IN AN UNCERTAIN WORLD, WHICH I THINK WE DO.

AND A.I.

DOESN'T SOLVE THAT PROBLEM.

AND "B," IF YOU THINK THE PAST PATTERNS ARE GOING TOBY PREDICTIVE OF THE FUCHER AND THE WORLD SHIFTS.

ALL OF US UNDERSTAND THIS IDEA INTUITIVELY BECAUSE A METEOROLOGIST WILL TELL US, OH, THERE WAS A HUNDRED-YEAR FLOOD AND WE SAY, OKAY, WHY IS THERE IS A HUNDRED-YEAR FLOOD THREE YEARS AGO.

IT'S BECAUSE THE PATTERNS HAVE SHIFTED.

IF A.I.

IS NOT POSSIBLE TO THIS PROBLEM I THINK WE CAN ENGINEER A WORLD OF FALSE CERTAINTY AND HUBRIS AROUND THESE NEW TOOLS THAT GETS US INTO A WORLD OF DANGER.

I THINK A.I.

IS GOING TO BE EXCEPTIONAL IN SOLVE PROBLEMS WHAT I CALL CLOSED SYSTEMS, MEDICAL FOR EXAMPLE.

IT MIGHT HAVE DANGERS EMBEDDED IT WHERE OPEN SYSTEMS OF THE PAST AND FUTURE ARE NOT ALIGNED ASKED THE TRAINING DATA OF THE PAST IS ACTUALLY MISALIGN WOULD THE UNDERLYING CAUSE AND EFFECT DYNAMICS IN A DIFFERENT WORLD THAT'S UNFOLDING AS WE SPEAK.

>> HOW CAN AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE ROLE OF FLUKES LEAD US TO HAVE A MORE RESILIENT SOCIETY?

LET ME EVEN ADD A MORE REVILIANT PERSONAL LIFE?

>> YEAH, I LIKE THIS QUESTION BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, I THINK DIFFERENTLY ABOUT THE WORLD AND MY OWN LIFE HAVING WRITTEN THIS BOOK.

IEST NOT THE SAME PERSON THREE YEARS AGO.

AND THE REASON FOR THAT IS BECAUSE I THINK -- YOU KNOW, I GREW UP IN THE U.S. WHERE I WAS SORT OF TOLD YOU HAVE TO SORT OF JUST MAKE YOUR OWN PATH, THE SORT OF INDIVIDUALIST MIND-SET, THE AMERICAN DREAM AND SO ON.

IT'S A CULTURE THAT IS EXTREMELY FOCUSED ON CONTROL, RIGHT?

AND I DESCRIBE IN THE BOOK HOW I WAS LIVING IN WHAT I DESCRIBE A CHECKLIST EXISTENCE.

AND I THINK WHEN YOU START TO THINK ABOUT THE ROLE OF THESE FORCES THAT ARE SOMETIMES ARBITRARY, ACCIDENTAL, AND RANDOM, AND ALSO THE CHAOS THEORY, THE RIPPLE EFFECTS OF OUR DECISIONS, IT STARTS TO LIBERATE YOU A LITTLE BIT, RIGHT?

IT STARTS TO MAKE YOU FEEL LIKE YOU KNOW WHAT, IT'S MAYBE OKAY IF I DON'T HAVE SO MUCH TOP DOWN CONTROL.

AND THAT'S WHAT I'VE INTERNALIZED AS A LESSON FROM THE BOOK.

IN TERMS OF SOCIETY I THINK THE MAIN LESSON IS RESILIENCEMISM I THINK WE HAVE THE TOOLS TO GIVE US THE ILLUSION OF CONTROL MORE THAN EVER BEFORE BECAUSE WE HAVE SO MUCH PREDICTABILITY AND STABILITY IN OUR DAILY LIVE THAT WE START TO THINK OUR WORLD IS ALSO STABLE, WHICH IN FACT IT'S THE OPPOSITE.

THE STABILITY IN OUR DAILY LIVES IS HAPPENING AT THE SAME TIME AS THE WORLD IS CHANGING FASTER AND MORE PROFOUNDLY THAN EVER BEFORE IN HUMAN HISTORY.

SO IN MY VIEW THIS IS SOMETHING WHERE POLITICIANS, ECONOMISTS, ET CETERA, NEED TO UNDERSTAND THEY ARE CREATING A WORLD WITHOUT SLACK.

AND THE FLUKES ARE ALWAYS GOING TO BE THERE.

SO INSTEAD OF IMAGINING THAT WE CAN HAVE THIS TOP DOWN CONTROL, I THINK WE HAVE TO HAVE A LITTLE BIT LESS HUBRIS AND ALSO CEPT THE LIMITS OF WHAT HUMANS CAN AND CANNOT CONTROL.

AND I THINK THAT'S TRUE FOR ORDINARY CITIZENS AS WELL AS FOR POLITICIANS WHO ARE CALLING THE SHOTS.

>> BRIAN CLOSS, THANK YOU SO MUCH.

>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME ON THE SHOW.