
How Trump's Tariff Plan Could Impact Illinois
Clip: 12/2/2024 | 8m 44sVideo has Closed Captions
The president-elect says he plans to impose high-percentage taxes on imported goods.
President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs are set to take effect on his first day in office through executive order, and they’re already drawing concern from economists about global and local impacts.
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How Trump's Tariff Plan Could Impact Illinois
Clip: 12/2/2024 | 8m 44sVideo has Closed Captions
President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs are set to take effect on his first day in office through executive order, and they’re already drawing concern from economists about global and local impacts.
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Learn Moreabout PBS online sponsorshippresident elect Donald Trump's campaign promises was a divisive economic plan, impose high percentage taxes on imported goods.
>> Known as terrace.
His plan calls for a 25% tax on all goods entering from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on Chinese products.
Trump says the shift will help create more factory jobs shrink the federal deficit, lower food prices and deter illegal immigration.
But many critics warn they'll have a harmful effect on the American economy and especially consumers.
Joining us on Zoom is Jonathan Coppet associate professor of agriculture policy at the University of Illinois.
Urbana Champaign.
Jonathan, thank you for joining us.
First, if you would explain how tariffs work.
>> Yeah.
I mean, tariffs are a tax, their tax on imports into this country.
And so, you know, rough example is like a sales tax.
And so everything brought in this country.
So it's going it's going to be hit with whatever that tariffs is at the border.
>> So how might a tariff impact in average American consumer or Chicago, Illinois consumer?
>> difficult to know because the details whatever.
President Trump will do it and administration are still kind of hard to sort out these bees made some specific more specific threats, if you will, against Canada in Mexico, as you as you mentioned, lead-in.
But we still don't know that the exact details are right.
I mean, at the tariff can be designed very narrow, a very, very specifically to address certain issues or challenges, particularly around national security measures or can be really blunt instrument.
And so this idea slapping 25 per cent on every good coming in from another country.
It's going to be really expensive.
It's going it all kinds of things that we don't produce taking the food sector.
It that you think about some of the things we import from places like Mexico and we do not produce in this country that's going to increase costs for consumers of grocery store because there's simply no one is saying can have that be passed onto the consumer.
>> So Illinois are major exports here are agricultural like soybeans, for example.
That's a that would be an export.
But how might tariffs affect the agricultural industry?
>> Yeah, I think one of the big unknowns with what President-elect Trump keeps saying is sort of how the other countries around the world respond.
So what is next due in response to they retaliate?
Do they?
It's hit tariffs or embargoes on exports like soybeans, which are an important export, as you mentioned, out of Illinois.
And we have some examples of this back in 2018 when he first initiated tariffs in his first term.
China, for example, began retaliating against Libyans as one of their one of the targets of their response.
Then the question or real concern begins.
Do things escalate from there into a much broader and much deeper conflict.
Something we might consider is like a trade war in which we begin to see all sorts tariffs encounter tariffs and embargoes and things like that that could really disrupt trade and kind of ripple through the economy.
>> Trump used tariffs in his last term as well.
How did that go?
Then?
>> Well, they use a somewhat narrowly on things like like washing machines and solar panels against China and China immediately retaliate if they retaliate.
Second soybeans.
As one of we noticed, there's also some interesting sort of retaliation against things like Harley Davidson motorcycle.
So at the time, Paul Ryan from Wisconsin is the speaker of the House and against bourbon from Kentucky because Mitch McConnell, it was majority leader.
So you can see them.
very, very narrowly in specifically to to implement a countermeasure retaliatory measure.
But a broader measure against all exports United States.
Of course, would ripple through various sectors the economy, certainly for farmers, I could disrupt trade around the world and we really don't know how that how that plays out.
Yeah, China's that sounds like China.
China's response was clearly a political.
>> The biden-harris administration has retained some of Trump's tariffs, including on Chinese goods and electrical vehicles.
In your opinion, when is the right time to utilize tariffs?
>> And that's a difficult question.
I think a lot of it really depends what what the policy is trying to achieve something like electric vehicles, for example, as we are starting up a nascent industry, we're really trying to get that production and the consumer interest off the ground.
And so if a country like China is able to undercut American, you know, entrepreneur is road and starting those sort of things, then you might see that as as a way to kind of help the industry get started.
And then you with phases out over time.
Another thing that Trump is used as been question previous administration, is this national security interest situation.
So we want use tariffs to prevent things that that challenger can spark concern for national security.
So we might protect industries like, you know, a lot of talk computer chips or weaponry and those sort of things that we wouldn't want to get under tighter have challenges with some.
There's a lot of the sort of targeted areas.
And then of course, the other one would be countries improperly using tariffs against American exports than we might also want to consider retaliation in that situation as well.
But it's, you know, there's there's not I you know, perfect mechanism for.
And I think one of the challenges is United States has been a leader role wise for many years now and trying you know, manage trade, relationships and agreements.
you know, some strong critics.
They are free trade policy.
This certainly to have the USB the instigator tariff conflict does present challenges both economic and geopolitically just in terms of managing a whole bunch of relationships.
>> Now Trump is claims he's promised actually that, you know, tariffs will create jobs, reduce the deficit, lower food prices.
Can you draw the line to that?
Actually happening?
>> sure how that is possible.
Given the state of are traded imports and particularly around groceries because they're just a lot of products that we do not grow produce in this country that would be hit with tear Broad-based tariffs that would impact the consumers pocket book the grocery store.
You know, a simple thing we we talk about sometimes classes, things like bananas or coffee.
We don't produce in this country.
So if you slap tariffs on that automatically price, the cost of those goods go out and there is no replacement, there's no substitute that we we have and in the U.S.
So we think about and that there's just a lot of those scenarios, many, many things that we import, you know, things are going automobiles, steel and aluminum and different items that go into multiple products.
You're increasing.
The cost of that was then we get past on and increase the overall cost the final good.
So even if it's not something that we directly import than that.
The items that go into other products but also increase.
And there's just not a simple way to replace it as far as saving jobs, maybe over time.
we're able you know, build manufacturing capacity, replace that.
But that's a very long-term outcome to re to try to work with, threw tear structure.
And I would imagine companies wouldn't necessarily be willing to immediately invest in building a factory if they know that the president >> is going to be someone else in that office in another 4 years on just about 20 seconds left, professor, you know, Congress typically sets tech park tax policies and forces tariffs.
What executive power can Trump exercise immediately to put a tariff like this in place?
>> Well, and that's one of the big questions we have and how they try to implement.
This is what authorities the president operates under again.
It the Trump administration, they use a national security exemption to existing tariff policies that Congress enacted and so I presume they follow something like that as well.
That, of course, raises a lot of concerns about how much it how broad an authority can be used and what's the most appropriate, a proper way to do it.
But to sort that out, you end up having to go to court and fight that their litigation.
And so again, the answers on that would be a long way away from the actual.
right, Tara.
>> All right.
We'll have to
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