- Coming up on IGI, the 2023 Kansas legislative session is underway, and our panel of experts is here to break down all the possibilities.

Stay with us.

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(upbeat music) - Hello, and welcome to IGI.

I'm your host, Washburn University Professor of Political Science Bob Beatty.

2022 was a bit of a political rollercoaster for Kansas, with a surprise defeat of an abortion amendment in August.

And the reelection of Democratic governor Laura Kelly in a very Republican state.

But that's behind us, and the 2023 Kansas legislature is now in session.

So, can the governor and GOP legislature meet in the middle?

Or will it be, as Gene Arthur said in "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington" "Stymie?"

Here to answer that question, are three Kansas politics experts, Emporia State University professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Smith, and from the Kansas Reflector, Reporter Rachel Mipro, and Senior Reporter Tim Carpenter.

Thank you all for joining me, and before we get into the specific issues, I just wanted to go over quickly the campaigns of the governor.

And it's hard to say, but the campaigns on the Republican side, because, spoiler alert, we're already seeing a bit of a disconnect already in January, between the Republican leadership and the governor's campaign.

And some people are arguing, you know, are they not reading the election results?

So, I'll start with with Tim.

What kind of campaign did Governor Laura Kelly run?

And she was reelected, so obviously it was popular enough to get reelected.

- She ran a winning campaign for sure.

I think she was very disciplined on the things that she wanted to talk about, transportation, schools, highways, economic development.

And that left Derek Schmidt with not enough oxygen in the room to persuade enough middle voters to elect him.

So, she won narrowly twice now without a majority vote.

So she did well.

- [Bob] And her big theme, of course, if anybody was watching any television at all for several months, was her in the middle of a road saying that she is middle of the road.

It became a bit of a running joke, even in an her inaugural speech, she quoted her own TV ad and said, I'm back, you know, basically in the middle of the road.

So, so she stressed a lot of bipartisanship.

Michael, how about the Republicans in the legislature, especially in their own districts, because what we're already hearing is some Republicans saying, well, my constituents want these things, which may be conflicting with what the governor said she was reelected on.

- Well, that's right.

We're seeing an ever deepening urban-rural split in the state of Kansas.

Governor Kelly only won, I believe it was eight counties, but those eight counties comprised a majority of the population of the state of Kansas.

She did very well in Johnson County, which is growing in population.

Also, Democrats picked up some additional seats in Johnson County.

However, rural Republican voters are just solidifying their Republican supermajority.

So we're definitely gonna see an urban-rural split.

The big question for me, Bob, is will the legislature actually tackle rural issues?

Things like water, things like the agricultural economy, banking issues, rural hospitals, many of which are, have already closed, or at high risk of closing.

Things that actually affect rural constituents.

Rural voters need a lot more than just cultural hot buttons.

There are real needs in rural Kansas, workforce issues and things like that.

So that's the onus that's on these rural Republicans.

They say they wanna stand up for rural Kansas, so do it.

- Well, Rachel, again, we'll be getting to this, but Michael brings up this point, is, I've been reading the reports on the first, you know, week essentially, and it was those cultural issues on the Republican side that at least got all the headlines and seemed to get the leaders of the Republican side super energized.

So are you seeing this bit of a disconnect between, so far, between like a governor who said, "Hey, we gotta solve things that we can get together on."

And then the Republican legislators so far saying, "Nope, we're gonna fight these cultural wars."

- [Rachel] Yeah, I'm really glad you brought that up actually, because we've been seeing that, like, through all of the campaigning, too.

It's kind of like the whole national GOP strategy there, where it's like fentanyl, it's immigration issues, transgender athletes, and such.

That has been huge.

Covid 19 restrictions.

None of which, I feel, are mostly very relevant to rural Kansans, but we keep seeing it go over and over and over again.

Especially immigration.

I'm thinking Kansas, like is that really such a problem here?

- Bob, the House and Senate republican leadership had a news conference and it seemed that they just wanted to ring the bell about woke Democrats, so, quote unquote woke politicians, and getting behind some of those social issues that that they gravitate to.

So, I think you had a week of maybe some quiet diplomacy here, but they'll unleash the dogs as a session goes on.

They're gonna stand up for Republican ideas.

- [Bob] Yeah, and we'll get into the specifics of those and some viewers may be surprised to Rachel's point because what we mostly saw in the 2022 election were gubernatorial ads, and we saw them from Derek Schmidt, the Attorney General, and Laura Kelly.

And then the PACs, the political action committees.

And so some viewers may think, well, Laura Kelly won.

So, because Derek Schmidt, five of his ads at least, were about transgender athletes and that did not work for him.

But the legislature has a different, possibly a different approach.

Let's get into something that they might be able to make some sausage over, which is get some laws passed, which is tax cuts.

So, Kansas right now will have soon about a $2.4 billion surplus.

This is a far, this is like the bizzaro world from the Brownback days.

If viewers remember the Brownback days, is the exact opposite.

Where it's like, we have no money.

We're gonna have to cut.

What are we gonna do?

This is 2.4 billion extra dollars.

So, maybe we'll start with Tim, we've got the governor's plans, let's start with what she wants to do, and then we'll compare that with what the Republicans want.

- She's proposed an immediate end to the state 4% sales tax on groceries, used to be 6.5% until January 1st of this year.

That's a three year phase out.

She wants to do that by April 1st.

And there's legislative, some legislative pushback to that.

However, the Republicans think they can package that with some corporate and individual income tax cuts and other tax elements, and put that into a big bundled bill and get Laura Kelly to sign it.

- So you're saying there may be a middle ground for taxes?

- I think, yeah.

If there's an issue in which they can come together and compromise on, I think it's taxation, because there is so much money.

You know, the, there's Republican and Democrat elements too, that want to tamp down expectations on tax cuts because I think there's a sense we need to put more money in the bank and reserve it in case the economy craters and they end up cutting, end up cutting taxes too much, and then having to pay for it later.

- So there's a billion dollars in the rainy day fund, which is good for Kansas, a billion dollars.

I did hear one Republican legislator said, let's take another billion and put that in the rainy day fund.

- Governor Kelly's proposed half a billion.

- [Bob] Okay.

That's a lot of money.

- It is a lot of money.

So, somewhere between 500 and a billion is where they'll end up, I guess.

- So I don't wanna be too partisan, you know, seem partisan here, but if there was a Republican governor, wouldn't the Republican legislature saying, my gosh, everything is absolutely fantastic.

And going back, is that why they're stressing the cultural issues?

Michael Smith?

Because actually inflation is going down, you know, there's all this money in the bank, and the unemployment rate is absurdly low, ridiculously low.

And so is actually, it makes sense for them to be stressing cultural issues when you know, they really can't make, maybe get that much credit on the economic one.

- Yeah, there's a political logic to it.

I mean, I think you're right, Bob.

Governor Kelly is a moderate Democrat.

She ran in the middle of the road, literally running a TV ad where she was standing in the middle of the road.

And she's not that different from a moderate Republican like Bill Graves or Mike Hayden from back in the day.

You're not gonna really be able to effectively brand her as being far left.

And tax cuts, she's talking about tax cuts and so forth.

So yeah, there's a political logic to it.

Now, is it good public policy?

That's a different question.

And to your point about the workforce, you know, there's a lot of talk about 2023 possibly being a year with a recession.

We're getting ready to see something that is unprecedented, which is a recession where there's a shortage of workers, not a shortage of jobs.

Where the problem is that employers can't find workers, not that workers can't find jobs.

We've never seen anything like that.

And I know we're gonna talk about the hot button issues.

One of the issues we're gonna hear about in 2023 is workforce development.

- Well, I'm laughing because we had so many, if we had so many things we haven't seen before or, you know, I was seven years old, and Gerald Ford was president the last time we saw it, but obviously a pandemic.

And then we had this wild inflation, and, you know, everyone went crazy over the inflation.

And old people like me said, I remember when it was much, much, much worse.

It was 45 years ago and now you're giving us, hey, how about one more thing that we've never dealt with.

- Yep.

- [Bob] Before.

But it's an excellent point.

So, Rachel and Tim, you see taxes as a possibility that when all the dust settles, or do you?

That, actually, there may be some compromise?

- I think so actually.

I mean, we've heard from people themselves, Ty Masterson, he's been saying like, yes, there might be some room for common ground there.

I mean obviously, we have to see when we get further into the session, but right now I'm cautiously optimistic about it.

- So the Republicans have talked, you already mentioned it, they want, some want to cut state and corporate taxes at some point, they wanna look into property tax valuation or cuts.

Some are arguing for a flat rate, which would be regressive.

And the food sales tax is also regressive.

And on Kelly's side, she wants the food sales tax done now.

She wants a tax holiday for school supplies in August, and she wants the taxing limit for social security retirees.

- Right.

She wants to raise the exemption in terms of your income in terms of whether or not it's taxed by the state.

- [Bob] How many of those possibly get put in some big bill that maybe Kelly signs?

- It's interesting because I'll bet you I could find a Republican who's proposed all three of those pieces that Laura Kelly proposed.

- And Derek campaigned on the social security piece.

- Right.

And so I think all of those will be part of it.

Don't know the size of it.

Laura Kelly's idea was maybe she was talking $500 million in tax relief over a three year period.

So, you might see different numbers there because other legislators who run these House and Senate committees want to put other features of tax code in there.

- And I forgot also, get rid of taxes on diapers and feminine hygiene products.

- [Tim] Governor has proposed that, and I think that also- Exactly.

I think republicans have talked about that too.

- So that may be, okay.

So that's maybe something we can be optimistic about.

Now, Tim, you've been on the show quite a bit.

Michael Smith, we have a long history on this show, and you know what I'm gonna talk about next.

Because every show, every year we bring up two issues.

Medical marijuana.

- [Michael] Sure.

- And Medicaid expansion.

Let me throw out that I don't think Medicaid expansion will get passed.

Laura Kelly came so close before the pandemic.

We know that we talked about it, and then the leadership and Republicans wouldn't put it up for a vote.

But she had the votes.

Medical marijuana.

I ask you every time.

I'm honestly flummoxed, because I looked it up four years ago, exit polls of the 2018 election.

Voters were asked, Kansas voters, should marijuana be legalized?

62% said yes.

The last exit poll for our most recent election, November, should marijuana be legalized?

62% said yes.

And I'm like, I wonder if voters think marijuana should be legalized?

So is this the year, Michael?

- It could be- - [Bob] For, at least medical marijuana?

- Now, Ty Masterson, who's a leader in the Senate is strongly opposed.

- [Bob] Yeah.

- That's gonna be a major barrier.

But there are a lot of border issues here.

I believe more Kansans than ever live in a corridor from the Missouri border to Topeka and Missouri has now legalized recreational marijuana, not just medical.

- Wow.

Okay.

- And the remainder in terms of a population center is Wichita, which is near Oklahoma, where medical marijuana is legal.

So there are a lot of border issues here.

Do we want people to fill those prescriptions and then drive high back to Kansas?

That doesn't sound safe.

I think there's gonna be a lot of pressure from border issues, and there are a lot of Kansans saying, look, I'm sick and this would help.

And so I think we can pretty much rule out recreational marijuana because of the- - [Bob] Yeah.

- Opposition of prominent politicians.

But I think there's gonna be a lot of pressure for medical marijuana.

But there are a lot of politicians that don't want it.

So, it's gonna be close.

- [Bob] And again, it could be that the people of Kansas want something, the actual legislature, meaning a majority of legislators, would vote for it, but leadership can simply refuse to have a vote.

We saw that with Medicaid expansion.

Rachel and Tim, is this the year?

- [Tim] No, no.

I say, I say no to both.

- Yeah.

- And I think the leadership's gonna hold tight, and for different reasons.

But, it's one of those points in which the general public has made their ideas and their impressions known, and the people who run the legislature disagree.

And so they're gonna stand pat, and I don't think Medicaid expansion has a chance.

- No.

- The House has passed a medical marijuana bill.

The Senate wouldn't even take it up.

- [Bob] Yeah.

- So I just, I'm skeptical on both counts, and I see the same opinion polls you do.

And I don't know how long politicians run and work by stiff arming the public like that without political ramifications.

Maybe there is none.

- Well, I don't know if it's even just like, like I actually at this point, I think it's like two very major legislators that are really doing the whole hold back here because I was covering, you know, the medical marijuana committee that was running, like having all those meetings up until, I think their last one was December 15th.

And throughout that, all the, every lawmaker I interviewed was like, I am pro this, I am ready to do this.

We will just have to see if we get it past leadership.

Do I think that will happen?

No.

No, probably not.

But if you look at it, people really have a personal connection to getting medical marijuana passed.

I mean, it was really interesting if you go and hear people's stories about it.

One woman I talked to, she said that she was in a coma and sipping raw cannabis juice took her out of the coma.

So you get a bunch of crazy stories, you get a lot of passionate people about this issue.

I don't think it will pass, ultimately.

- It's interesting, and again, I think both Tim and Michael have been with me for a number of years on shows, the journey of medical marijuana, especially, let's say we did shows five years ago, oh this is kind of a, you know, I mean it is a little radical, and only Oregon and Washington, now it's 2023 to your point, and we're, you know, what, 38 states?

Or more now?

And now it's, you travel around and they look at you like, what?

It's illegal in Kansas?

And, you know, you see the CBD gummies, oh, I've got joint pain or whatever.

So it's getting the disconnect, as you point out, is just getting wider and wider, so it, we'll keep talking about it.

Right?

Maybe you are right.

Maybe- - There is a bit of a work around Bob, which is local decriminalization.

This is what they've done in Wichita.

Some communities are just saying, you know what, we're not gonna put our law enforcement resources into enforcing these laws.

We might give you a fine or something, but we're tired of putting our resources into enforcing laws against non-violent marijuana related offenses.

They've done that in Wichita.

It wouldn't surprise me if we saw that in Lawrence.

and Johnson County, and in other parts of urban Kansas.

- [Bob] Yeah, it was interesting.

I saw one comment from a legislator who said, well, we really need to get this right and all the different permutations.

And I did think, you know, you could just find out one of the states where it's really going well and they seem to have it all under control and just pick up the phone and give 'em a call.

Hey, could you send over your law?

And, and all the, you know.

But, there's so many- - There's certainly to Kansas' advantage, to look at the, the practices in other states.

- Exactly.

- And draw from there.

- What- - You don't have to reinvent the wheel.

- The state where it didn't work maybe as well, or they're having problems, versus the states that do.

- [Michael] Sure.

- So, you know, I think in terms of Kelly's, Laura Kelly's priorities, we know from the Panasonic deal and David Tollen, who's lieutenant governor, and it is rightly so they're rather obsessed with bringing jobs to Kansas and they spend a lot of time on that.

And I think we're gonna see more of that.

There's already rumors of a hydrogen, you know, big plant that may be built, and a chip maker.

And I think that's something that we'll see with the legislature.

They proved they could do it with Panasonic.

- Yeah.

- So let's get into the, what we may be hearing about a lot of this session, which are these cultural issues.

First of all, abortion.

There was an abortion amendment vote in August.

Some people told me, oh, well that's over.

No, it's not over.

So in terms of abortion, Republican leadership has argued it's the Democrats that are radical, argument is that the Democrats want to legalize all types of abortions, including killing, you know, killing babies and, and et cetera, et cetera.

So, some of the things that they're talking about is possibly right now there's a 20, you can't have an abortion in Kansas after 22 weeks unless it's a severe medical problem.

Maybe bringing that to 15 weeks.

Funding crisis pregnancy centers, banning telemedicine, doctors over telemedicine, from talking about the abortion pill and then something called legal protection for fetuses and failed abortions.

Do you see these pop rising, which they probably will, and which of them may actually make it in terms of passing a vote in the House or the Senate?

I can start with Michael.

- A couple of things.

One is women coming to Kansas from other states, Kansas abortion clinics are absolutely overwhelmed.

They're actually turning most women away.

Texas is a state with a population many, many times the size of Kansas.

Most Texans live in the eastern part of the state.

Kansas is the closest state where abortion is legal.

There's no way the abortion clinics in Kansas can even come close to keeping up with the demand.

So the issue of women coming to Kansas from other states is huge.

And there may be some attempt to somehow say that the clinics can't perform the procedure on women from other states.

I don't see how that would work legally.

Of course, for many years, women from Missouri have come to Kansas in the Kansas City area, but Texas is the big dog now.

So there's that piece.

And then the other piece, Bob, is the selection of judges.

Conservatives for years have really not liked the fact that some, not all of the state does this, but some districts in Kansas and the Kansas Supreme Court use the merit selection of Missouri nonpartisan court plan.

That really is what it's called.

They particularly don't like the commission that vets the judges and gives a list of finalists to the governor.

They think it's kind of an inside job and they would like to somehow open that up and change the procedure, how judges are selected.

And so there may be some push in that direction.

We'll have to see.

- That's in the Supreme Court.

Specifically on these abortion bills.

- Yeah.

- [Tim] There'll be a lot of debate about abortion.

And I think some of those politicians are tone deaf to what that August vote was.

When you lose a constitutional amendment by 170,000 votes, it should send you a message of some kind.

They can nibble at the edges of abortion rights, but they are going to have to be wary of running afoul The Kansas Supreme Court, which has affirmed in an opinion, the right to bodily autonomy, which gives you the right to abortion in the Kansas constitution.

So that same court is sitting there waiting for these bills to be challenged.

And I don't think some of this could pass muster.

- Yeah.

And actually the case will be revisited at the end of January with Chris Kobach, the Attorney General, but most likely, yeah, they're gonna- - [Tim] Why would they change their opinion just a few years later?

- [Bob] They were asked to revisit it and you would think they would, why would they change their mind?

Especially after the vote, right?

- [Tim] Right.

- Although I think the Supremes would tell you that they don't look at polling, they don't look at elections like that.

They look at the law, they read the statute, and they issue their legal opinion.

That's what they would tell you.

- Yeah.

But all research has shown that, at least in the federal level, that Supreme Court justices at least keep an eye on public opinion.

- [Tim] Okay.

- Let's put it that way.

But yes, you're right.

That's what they would say.

Rachel, any of these gonna go anywhere in abortion?

What do you think?

- We'll have to see.

I mean, I think it is interesting, going back to the point about justices, we are seeing some legislation that would define grounds to impeach a justice, or like- - That's true.

- Have some accountability measures.

And I do think it's partly rooted in that abortion measure from August, because we've been hearing rumors for a while now.

I'm sure you've heard it too, Tim, like about some pro-life activists have been saying they really wanna get rid of certain judges, get rid of that.

So I think what we're seeing now, that sort of justice legislation, it can't be like, detangled, from this sort of rhetoric.

- [Tim] Given the people Laura Kelly's put on the Supreme Court, given that August vote, the fastest way to change this is to get rid of some of the Supreme Court justices and flip that opinion.

- [Bob] Yeah.

- [Michael] But the attempt to do that in retention elections has always failed.

- Total failure.

No one's ever been thrown out.

- Nope.

Not in Kansas.

- But look at the recent election.

I mean, the results for that amendment, which one was it?

Was like, one of them was really close.

- Well, that was the regulations.

- The regulations, yes.

- Yeah.

- Yeah, right.

- Okay.

The GOP leadership also talked about they want to fight the quote, sexualized woke agenda, unquote.

There's so many things under there, education bill of rights, vaccine exemptions for students, the transgender issue.

Do you see, Tim, do you see any of these being, popping up there that something that- - The bill of rights for education that allowed parents to have a greater role in challenging the curriculum in the classroom, or challenging books in the library, that could get passed.

Some of these other pieces, requiring athletes to compete in sports according to their gender at birth.

That could pass.

There's somebody sitting on the second floor of the capitol is gonna have something to say about this legislation and Governor Laura Kelly, likely will veto this stuff and it'll come down to a big showdown on a veto override.

- [Bob] Rachel, do you see any of these getting the point where the governor's gonna have to veto some things?

- I think most of the transgender politics, yeah, they probably do have enough support at this point.

What's interesting too, is that we're hearing like stuff like the woke agenda and all of that, but we haven't really heard definitions of what that would entail.

I've asked some the leadership about it.

and they've, like, the response has quote, been to Google it.

So again, I would really like to see a more like, clear definition of what the woke agenda is.

It's interesting too, that if they're asked like, are teachers part of this?

Are you mad about what teachers are teaching?

Some cases they've said no, like, we're not mad about the teachers specifically, but there's a pervasive idea about this culture war being fought that I think is really interesting.

- [Bob] Yeah, we're running out of time, so I wanna hit Michael with this.

- Okay.

- This is federalism.

I mean, so school boards tend to, you know, are elected, and they deal with a lot of issues, we know, from schools.

And is this the legislature saying essentially, we don't trust the school board, so we're gonna tell school boards what it is, you know, we think that parents should be allowed to do?

What's going on here?

- Possibly, or possibly the teachers.

Or maybe it's just hitting a hot button.

I mean, I think that the fact that you asked for a definition of woke and you didn't get one is telling a number of reporters have experienced that in other states also, that the very people fighting the woke agenda can't tell you what it is.

It it is a hot button.

And yes, you're absolutely right, Bob.

There's a real issue of who's in charge, right?

Is it the teachers?

Is it the school board?

Is it the state legislature?

My concern is that we already have a teacher shortage crisis.

Pay is a huge factor, and I don't want to minimize that.

We need to do something about teacher pay.

But we need to understand that the more we harass and intimidate teachers and librarians, the harder it is to, it's going to be to recruit them.

And that's a factor as well.

- [Bob] Okay.

I don't have enough time to give you any sort of semblance, coherent thought.

Tell me about this upcoming legislative session in one word.

- Too long.

- Too long.

Two words.

Too long.

Rachel?

- Interesting.

- Interesting.

- Aquifer.

- Ah, water.

All right.

Well, that's all the time we have for this episode of IGI.

If you have any comments or suggestions for future topics, send us an email at issues@ktw.org.

If you'd like to view this program again, or any previous episodes of IGI, visit us online at watch.ktw.org.

Thank you to my guests for IGI.

I'm Bob Beattie.

Thanks for watching.

(upbeat music) - This program is brought to you with support from the Lewis Humphrey's Charitable Trust and from the friends of KTWU.