- Coming up on "IGI", the 2024 presidential primaries are just around the corner, and our all-star panel of experts will examine the importance of the Iowa caucuses in selecting a president over the past 50 years.

Stay with us.

(light music) - [Announcer] This program is brought to you with support from the Lewis H. Humphreys Charitable Trust and from The Friends of KTWU.

(bright upbeat music) - Hello, and welcome to "IGI".

I'm your host, Washburn University Professor of Political Science, Bob Beatty.

2024 is a presidential election year, and once again, the state of Iowa will play a major role, as they have for over 50 years, with the Iowa caucuses.

This unique aspect of American democracy is the subject of a new documentary produced by KTWU, called, "See How they Run: Presidential Candidates and the Iowa Caucuses".

We'll see a few clips from the program as we examine why and how presidential candidates keep flocking to Iowa every four years, and who's doing well there in 2024.

Here to join me is a true all-star panel of political experts.

From "The Kansas Reflector", Senior Reporter, Tim Carpenter; Washburn University Associate Professor of Political Science, Dr. Amber Dickinson; and Emporia State University Professor of Political Science, Dr. Michael Smith.

And thank you all for joining me on "IGI".

And before we get started, let's take a look at a short clip from the documentary.

This section is called, "Why Iowa?"

Why Iowa?

Well, number one, the Iowa caucus is the first presidential contest.

Number two, Iowans are happy to serve as the test audience for all candidates, known and unknown.

Number three, the rest of the nation is watching.

And let me assure you, the candidates know these things very, very well.

- How do you break through?

You gotta look into our eyes and you've gotta look into our guts.

And you've gotta make a measure not of what we say in a campaign, but you've got to make a measure of what we've done with our lives.

(crowd cheers and applauds) - Thank you!

(crowd cheers and applauds) (drums beating) - [Reporter] Senator, what do you think of that crowd?

- Pretty good crowd.

- So God bless you, everybody.

God bless you, thank you.

(audience cheers and applauds) Bye!

Bye!

Bye!

Let's go win this thing!

- So that last clip is actually from the Pizza Ranch, which is the most popular spot for usually Republicans in Iowa.

Let's start with what we just heard, some of the reasons that Iowa is still very popular for presidential candidates.

One, it's the first contest.

Second, I at least argue this, that Iowans are willing to go see all the candidates.

And third, the rest of the nation really pays a lot of attention to this.

So, who wants to jump in?

Why is Iowa number one?

New Hampshire, of course, famously is number two.

And maybe Dr. Dickinson will tell us more about how it's not number one for the Democrats, but why has it been number one?

Michael?

- I'll jump in, Bob.

One of the things about Iowa, well, there are a couple things that come to mind.

One is that politics is very tradition-bound.

If you think of like some of the idioms we use, like, throwing your hat into the ring, how many people even wear hats unless it's winter, you know, anymore?

But there's just, politics is very, very tradition-bound, and political traditions are hard to change.

But there's another reason I think with Iowa, and there are a lot of problems with Iowa, I know, but it's accessible.

Some folks have asked, "What if we had a national superprimary?

Or if we had only regional primaries, where all the states in a region voted together like Super Tuesday?"

And one pushback against that is because of the ungodly amount of money that political candidates would have to raise in order to do that.

And it would all be based on TV buys in big metro areas: Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, Dallas.

That's all it would be, is how much money can you possibly raise to buy TV ads?

There's no way in the world you could actually get up on someone's front porch and meet that person, or go to the Pizza Ranch and have pizza or chicken with that person.

Iowa's got a lot of problems.

But one thing about it that is positive is it's one, that and New Hampshire, are these last little pieces of American politics where it's not just a contest to raise the most money and hire the best consultants and have the best databases.

You actually get out there and you meet the voters face-to-face.

- So it's been first in the nation, the caucuses for both parties, since 1972.

Amber, there has been some change at least for one party, correct?

- Mm-hm, sure, the Democrats don't participate in this at this point, in large part because it's pretty antiquated, and you've got a really conservative population.

And this is a really good opportunity for members of the Republican Party to see who is more than likely going to be on the ticket.

Although it's not highly predictive.

We've seen plenty of cases in the past where people that are coming in third in the Iowa caucus end up being the president of the United States.

So I think that while it is this longstanding tradition, I think that it is really outdated, and I can see why you have members of the Democrat Party not wanting to participate.

- To piggyback on Amber's comment about, Iowa and New Hampshire are not as ethnically and racially diverse as the rest of the country.

- Mm-hm.

- Not even close.

- It's a big problem.

It's a bunch of white folks picking their candidates.

And I think the Republicans like Iowa because there's a huge religious conservative community there that wants to vet the Republican GOP candidates.

And New Hampshire can go up there and vet Democrats, in a comparable way perhaps.

But it just seems like, why can't we just, next election have Montana be about the Republicans and we'll say, Tennessee for the Democrats?

Let's just move it around.

- Well, Michael made the point that Iowa has this political culture, and I argued that myself, is that other states might not show up in a coffee shop to see, you know, an unknown candidate eight months before- - Well, I think there's just as many strange county fairs in Tennessee and Montana, and eclectic restaurants as in Iowa and New Hampshire.

- I think Tim just wants to fund a trip to Montana.

- (laughs) But I think it's really important to note that Iowa would have to change their legislation on this.

And I don't think that Iowa would be particularly motivated to do that.

This is a really good industry for Iowa, and it's, you know, it's Iowa's time to shine, essentially.

And so they're not gonna be motivated to change that statute.

- In fact, New Hampshire also has legislation where it's the first primary, so Iowa's the first caucus, and they have state legislation.

And the Democrats also wanted to change New Hampshire's place in the process, and New Hampshire said no.

So in 2024, New Hampshire's having a Republican primary and a Democratic primary, but Joe Biden won't be on the ballot because of this feuding.

- And historically, you've seen Iowa and New Hampshire sort of tangle, get into it, a little tangled mess where they have to keep moving up their dates because they're sort of one-upping each other.

I think that's also confusing and problematic for voters.

- The other thing about Iowa is that their national status has changed.

Iowa was one of only 10 states that voted for Michael Dukakis in 1988.

It's traditionally a battleground state that probably leans a little bit Democratic.

It's the home of Tom Harkin, who was a lion of the Senate.

Donald Trump won Iowa very easily both times.

And I think all their statewide offices now are held by Republicans, and both Senate seats.

So Iowa is really the epicenter of the Obama-Trump Democrats.

And that may be another reason why Democrats are pulling out, because these days Iowa's been voting Republican; they didn't use to do that.

- Yeah, and four years ago, Joe Biden, and I think I'm correct, got third in Iowa and he ended up becoming president, and then that person becomes in charge of the party.

And so he was much happier with South Carolina, which is being rewarded in 2024.

- What is the number?

Is it only three out of the last eight times over the last 40 years have Republicans chose- - Yeah.

- Awarded the caucus victory to the person who was elected president?

- Oh yeah, Iowa doesn't guarantee you're gonna win.

What Iowa does is it takes people that maybe haven't raised as much money and most people haven't heard of, and it gives them a chance and it gives them national publicity.

- And we'll talk about that more after this next clip.

Michael, that's an interesting point.

It can also take people that have a lot of money that can be duds in Iowa.

- That's true.

That's absolutely true.

- So that also happens, so it's sort of this culling process.

Let's take a look at another clip.

And for those who are sharp-eyed, there's one person on this panel that you're going to see in this clip.

See if you can spot that person.

- Because the road to the White House goes right through Iowa.

(crowd cheers and applauds) And I'm not one of those candidates that's skipping Iowa or jumping over it.

I'm going right through it.

(crowd cheers) - You hold the key, in Ankeny, in Iowa, you hold the key.

Reach your neighbors, reach your coworkers, reach your family, reach the people you worship with.

If they feel your hearts and they believe change can happen, they will come out and they will make a difference.

You have that power.

- Look, I'm really grateful, I thank you.

I'm thankful that you would come here today to listen to me.

I know this is an important decision.

It's a role that Iowa plays every four years.

And I hope that I can earn your support on February 1st.

I'm asking for your support.

We'll be back and you'll continue to hear from us.

And if you haven't been convinced yet, we're gonna keep working on you.

We're nothing if not persistent.

- So let me just see a show of hands.

How many people are planning to caucus on January 3rd?

Raise your hand, be proud.

Be proud that you're a caucusgoer.

All right, how many people are still undecided about who they're gonna caucus for?

Raise your hand.

Okay, you see, we've got some live ones here.

(audience laughs) All right, did you catch them?

All right, so hopefully, we're gonna reel them in.

- So some of you might've spotted our own Tim Carpenter.

So Tim, you went up, tell us about going up to Iowa.

- Yes, so- - And watching these candidates.

- That was a photograph taken of me in 2007 at the Harkin Steak Fry, which is a Democrat event where the prominent Democrat candidates for president sat up on a stage and gave stump speeches while each of them listened to each other.

But before that got going, there's a chain-link fence there.

I turned around and watched the Hillary Clinton posse go by, big gaggle of reporters, 'cause she was probably expected to win that.

And then I turned around and realized that a TV cameraman was coming up the fence about ready to plow into me.

So I had my hand down here waiting to jab him in the back to make him stop, and I didn't really understand the situation.

And the future leader of the free world was walking by right in front of me.

I could have reached out and touched his shoulder, probably, if I wanted to.

But, you know, and then 30 seconds later I was watching John Edwards walk down a hill and helping some young fan of his have her picture taken with him.

And so, then the steak fry commenced.

It was a great event, and it gives you the sense of how rare it is to be in such proximity with people who have become president.

You know, both of us were in Iowa and stood next to Joe Biden after he gave a stump speech.

And there was one person and us asking questions.

I mean, future president of the United States.

We could've asked him about what he had for lunch that day if we wanted to.

- Didn't Joe Biden in that, many people don't realize Joe Biden ran several times for president, including 1988.

But wasn't that the event where someone started asking Joe Biden about the Kennedy assassination?

- That's right, a person had flown out from Washington, DC, had a file this thick, and asked Biden to reopen the Kennedy assassination investigation.

And instead of Biden being rude and dismissive of the guy, he very politely explained to him, he didn't actually think it was in the best interest of the nation to reopen that inquiry.

And I thought it was just a polite, it was just such startling thing.

We see such raw conduct from some presidential candidates these days.

For him to be so generous and nice to this guy that had maybe some quirky ideas, I just thought was really interesting.

- So it is Iowa, so yes, maybe the Democrats will go somewhere else in four years.

But regardless of where it is, all these candidates, they go to Iowa, and whether they have a lot of money or don't have a lot of money, we saw clips of Marco Rubio, Kansas' own Sam Brownback, Barack Obama.

Amber and Michael, in the years of the Iowa caucus, what is it about candidates that, why do they fail or bomb, versus succeeding, and why are there surprises when we see someone emerge that we never expected?

What is it about political campaign, Amber?

- I think something that really strikes me with your film is how you can feel whether or not these candidates are being genuine.

- [Bob] Yeah.

- I think some of them seem so rehearsed, and they seem like this is a line they've delivered in the mirror 100 times, or their debate coach has prepped them or whatever the case may be.

And I think that's palpable.

And I think that it is an opportunity for people to be face-to-face with a presidential candidate.

You know, nowadays, for the most part, your presidential campaign is using TV as a technological handshake, essentially.

And so this is an opportunity for real people to be around them.

And I think more than likely what you've got on your hands are some candidates are gonna fare better because they're better with people.

- And that doesn't come out in their home state.

Maybe their home state actually likes them.

"Oh, we love Senator what's-their-name."

And then they go to Iowa to campaign for president and that connection doesn't make it.

- That's really true.

I mean, for example, when we look at Congress, I know this is different, but when we look at Congress and people say, "Congress as a whole is terrible, but I like the person that represents me," it's because they've had a campaign tailored to elicit that kind of response.

- And I would argue a good example also is Vice President Harris.

She is clearly a rock star in the state of California.

She was easily elected attorney general, easily elected to the U.S. Senate.

But my feeling is she still hasn't connected with the American people in the other 49 states.

- Amber's right about the genuineness thing.

There's also the reality of some of these campaigns don't have a lot of money, really can't push the presence.

Also, some of them are just shockingly boring.

(panel chuckles) And I think, you know, Brownback ran for president and he bailed out early.

He didn't even make it to the 2008 calendar year.

He got out 'cause he didn't have any money, I don't think his heart was really into it, and he was not jazzing up the crowds.

You have Buttigieg and some of these other people that get there and people go, "Wow, this is a person that's interesting."

Even Barack Obama, when he walked up on a stage, the crowd chanted for Obama, and he leans into the microphone before he walks away and leans in and says, "Let's go change the world."

And people are applauding like, "Oh, yeah!"

You know, "I want a lot of change."

And so some people resonate, and others just can't do it.

- Obama did really well in Iowa.

He really worked Iowa, and, yeah.

- That changed the course of that campaign.

- It absolutely did.

And I would also point out that people that aren't really hardcore into politics can often look at a Pete Buttigieg or a Bernie Sanders and say, "Well, they lost."

Really, they lost?

Bernie Sanders is the chair of the Senate Finance Committee.

He's one of the most powerful people in the United States.

And that's amazing for a senator from Vermont with no party affiliation.

Pete Buttigieg is U.S. Secretary of Transportation, and he has ambition.

So that's one of the problems sometimes, we're so obsessed with the presidency that we forget, if it hadn't been for his showing in Iowa, I doubt Pete Buttigieg would be the Secretary of Transportation.

- He would still be mayor of South Bend, Indiana, I believe.

- If it hadn't been for his presidential campaigns, Bernie Sanders would not be chair of the Senate Finance Committee, who also changed the delegate rules at the Democratic National Convention, which is a party he's not even a member of.

(panel chuckles) - He also kept an elected official from having a physical altercation with 'em- - Just recently.

- That's right!

So thank goodness for Bernie.

- And the opposite is also true.

I've enjoyed over the years in Iowa seeing highly touted people say, you know, for groups in the media and supporters say, "You need to run for president," (chuckles) and then they arrive in Iowa and they totally bomb.

And the two I think of right away are actually, happen to be Republicans, but it's not always Republicans: Fred Thompson and Scott Walker.

Both, everyone urging them to run for president, and they got there, and Fred Thompson especially, he was an actor, but so boring.

But we have to go, Tim mentioned the question and answer aspect when he was in Iowa.

Let's take a look at a clip showing the Q&A from candidates in Iowa.

(group laughing) - Hi everybody, my name is Michele Bachmann.

We are here in Red Oak, Iowa, at the one and only Pizza Ranch, where everybody comes and buys chicken for some reason.

We're in Montgomery County, Iowa, and I am asking for your support at the Iowa caucuses on January 3rd, and also for your vote on January 3rd.

- I want to ask you, Mr. Gingrich, why do you want to force me to do something I don't wanna do?

Why do you want- - I don't want to force you to do something you don't want to do.

- That's what you said on "Meet the Press", Mr. Gingrich.

- Yeah, but I don't want you to do, I also just said that there ought to be an option for people who don't want to buy insurance.

- "Where do we begin?"

is such a great question.

Because what politicians talk about is, "Where are you gonna end?"

- [Audience Member] Right.

- And that's not the right question.

It's what you're asking, is "Where do we begin?"

Although you could say, "Here's where we want to end, but here's where we're gonna start."

- I think people say, "Oh, it's the candidate.

We start with the candidate."

- Yeah.

- But.

- Well, see, I think it's not the candidate.

I think it's all of us.

I mean, I think it's every single one of us.

- And I don't even understand sometimes why these terrible and horrible things happen.

(soft music) But I believe that there's a reason.

And I gotta tell you, even with faith, you can have perspective, but it does not, it does not take away the pain that we all feel.

So, you probably didn't expect that tonight.

(audience laughs) But that's okay.

Okay, right here, this gentleman right here.

- And you know, it's an honor.

It's an honor that people would take their time out on a very cold morning to come and spend this time with me.

It's a great honor.

- That's my pitch, you'd better vote for me.

- [Interviewer] Thank you.

- Thank you.

- So a couple quick things.

One, the John Kasich clip, I took that video, and what he was talking about was both his parents died in a car crash when he was young.

And then he sort of let out his feelings and emotions to the audience, and it was riveting.

And the other clip, of course, is John McCain.

So somebody like John McCain ended up getting the nomination, not because of Iowa, but he established that persona of willing to take questions from anybody.

And Obama took questions as well.

And so that became a part of their genuineness, right?

- You can actually, real quickly, you can actually see that Q&A, that style there and how appealing that is, if you're sitting there with your cup of coffee listening to a presidential candidate.

Donald Trump is not doing the retail campaign in Iowa.

- [Bob] Right.

- He's at 20,000 feet, he's not meeting with people.

He has big rallies like rock and roll concerts, with tickets and signs and everything.

And that's what it would be like if we had these caucuses and primary in California, Texas, New York, or Florida.

If you want that big thing, then you should move them to those states.

But if you want to have this eclectic, sort of bizarre deal, where anybody who's interested can show up, Bob could run for president if he wanted to- - And they do.

- Then we need to stick with maybe these smaller states that are more economical.

- But I do think that while it is this sort of intimate environment there on the ground, I think where it becomes somewhat problematic is the media's coverage, and specifically on the front-runners that come from this caucus.

Because I think what tends to happen is that people don't want to put their support behind someone who they don't think has a real chance of winning.

And so when it's being reported that say, you know, more than likely, Donald Trump is going to be the front-runner after the Iowa caucus, right, and probably trailing by Haley.

However, when we make these proclamations and we tell people that's a fact, and people don't understand that this caucus is a meeting and not an actual vote, then they're going to perhaps not put their support where they might truly want to put their support.

Because no one wants to put any kind of resources into devoting themselves to a candidate who doesn't have a chance of winning at the end.

- Right.

We're gonna take a look at one more clip, and this one really is just entitled, "Fun".

So if there's any comments after this one, you can let me know.

But let's roll this clip.

- Jane Gephardt is, it's Dick and Jane.

That's the first thing you need to know.

(audience laughs) Want to get that out of the way right away.

You know, there are a lot of books on Dick and Jane.

"See Dick and Jane run.

See Dick and Jane do this, that and the other thing."

I think it's time for Dick and Jane to go to the White House!

(audience cheers) - I feel a responsibility to try to give hope and opportunity to those Americans who still suffer the effects of discrimination every minute of their lives.

Ooh, that's serious ice cream!

(group laughs) - My friends, I stood fifth from the bottom of my class at the Naval Academy.

If my old company officer, Captain Hunt, United States Marine Corps, were here today, he'd say that in America, anything is possible.

(group laughs) (drum beating) (upbeat music) (festive horn music) (crowd cheering) (festive horn music) (crowd cheering) - Perfect!

- [Crowd] Amy!

Amy!

Amy!

(crowd cheers) - You got this!

- Oh my God, I'm dying!

(group laughs) - Oh, my God!

- Should we take a break?

(group laughs) (crowd cheers and applauds) (drum beats) (crowd cheers) (drum beats) (crowd cheers) - Kudos to these people that'll boogie like that in front of a marching band.

- It makes me want to die, watching it.

I mean, it's so uncomfortable!

- I'm impressed.

- Some of those things are so cringeworthy to me.

I think it speaks to the genuine aspect of how these people are presenting themselves in some cases.

In some cases, it just seems so uncomfortable.

- Yeah, it's interesting, because Kamala Harris was a dancer in high school and she actually was part of a dance troupe.

And when you see her as vice president, of course, she has to be very official and she's actually, but when she was campaigning, and she didn't get a lot of traction, so not a lot of attention, she was doing those kind of things.

She was showing her personality.

And a lot of people I've seen complain about Kamala Harris, "Oh, nobody likes her."

But she's not allowed, as vice president, to show her personality, which she clearly has.

I mean, anyone who's willing to dance.

- There's a gender component there as well, certainly.

- Quick comment on one aspect we haven't touched on, which is how Americans like to see ourselves.

Most Americans, we're talking 3/4 of us, live in urban areas, more likely the suburbs around the city than the central city itself.

Most Kansans live in cities.

Most Iowans live in cities or suburbs.

But that's not how we like to see ourselves.

We were talking before we started filming about the 99-county tour, that's a classic Iowa thing.

Why?

Why would you go to a county with 5,000 people, when a huge chunk of the population of Iowa lives in the Des Moines metropolitan area?

You should spend your time there.

But it's this mythos, it's that we like to see ourselves as rural, we like to see ourselves as Midwestern.

We're not.

Even in Iowa and Kansas, most people live in urban areas.

But I really think that's more part of that tradition that we want to be on the front porch.

We don't want to be in an apartment building in downtown Des Moines.

We want to be on the front porch or in the cornfield, like Bob Beatty here.

You know, because that's how we like to see ourselves, as sort of homespun, hardworking, rural people, even though it's really not accurate, even in Iowa and Kansas.

- Well, we've got a couple minutes left.

So 2024, there is gonna be a Republican Iowa caucus.

I'll start with Amber.

Trump is at 40-plus points in Iowa.

That's not 50.

Is there a possibility that there's a candidate that can in some way challenge Trump, at least in Iowa?

- Sure, I think it's Haley, especially with this recent announcement of this financial support that is being poured into that campaign that wasn't there before.

I mean, this makes this person a serious contender.

I also think this person is going to appeal to women in particular, and women may very well decide the outcome of this election next year.

And so to touch on that group of people, that is typically a group of people that Trump has some trouble with, you know, I think this person needs to really be taken seriously.

- And it needs to be one person.

It's kinda like what I said before the 2018 governor's race here: If people want anybody but Kobach, they had to agree on one other Republican, and they didn't.

They split up the vote, and Kobach won with a plurality.

If the anybody-but-Trump caucus wants to win the Republican nomination, they have to pick one candidate coming out of Iowa and get those other candidates out of the race.

- You get the last word, Tim.

- These people who are challenging Trump, if they don't make any inroads into his massive lead, they have nobody to blame except themselves because they were just too timid to take him on.

The guy that's indicted with about, I don't know, 100 felonies.

- [Amber] Yeah.

- You know, why not take on somebody like that?

It's unprecedented.

- Yeah, everybody except Chris Christie, who's actually not running in Iowa, and Asa Hutchinson, they don't want to directly criticize Trump.

- Shocking.

- You think that's a bad tactic?

- I think you'd better say what you believe if you're gonna go be out there running for president, even if it means it undermines your candidacy.

I think if you have a collective group saying this, it'll resonate, and you'll get some traction with those ideas.

If you keep your mouth shut, you have nobody to blame but yourself for your silence.

- All right, thanks, and thank all of you.

That's all the time we have for this episode of "IGI".

If you have any comments or suggestions for future topics, send us an email at issues@ktwu.org.

If you'd like to view this program again or any previous episodes of "IGI", visit us online at watch.ktwu.org.

For "IGI", I'm Bob Beatty.

Thanks for watching, and thanks for our guests.

(bright upbeat music) (staccato music) - [Announcer] This program is brought to you with support from the Lewis H. Humphreys Charitable Trust and from The Friends of KTWU.