GEOFF BENNETT: Former Indonesian general Prabowo Subianto declared himself the winner of Indonesia's presidential election today.

Though the final vote count is still pending, exit polling showed he had a huge lead.

He addressed cheering supporters after the polls closed.

PRABOWO SUBIANTO, Presumed Indonesian President-Elect (through translator): Even though we are grateful, we must not be arrogant.

We must not be arrogant.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE) PRABOWO SUBIANTO (through translator): We must not be euphoric.

We still have to be humble.

This victory must be a victory for all Indonesian people.

GEOFF BENNETT: Prabowo now serves as defense minister under the outgoing president, Joko Widodo.

During the country's authoritarian regime, Prabowo was accused of major human rights abuses, including overseeing the abduction of democracy activists, accusations that led to a U.S. travel ban.

Indonesia is now the world's third largest democracy.

It's a majority-Muslim nation spread out across 3,500 miles and 17,000 islands.

It sits at a crucial pivot point between China and the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific region.

For more on the significance of this moment, we turn to Ben Bland, director of the Asia-Pacific Program at Chatham House.

That's a think tank based in the U.K.

Thank you for being with us.

So, Prabowo Subianto, as we mentioned, a former army general linked to human rights abuses, he won, with the hugely popular current president's son running as his vice president.

Tell us more about these men and what their elections suggest about Indonesia's future.

BEN BLAND, Chatham House: Well, it's a remarkable result really for someone with a checkered track record, as you rightly highlighted, but someone who's shown remarkable persistence.

So, after he was dismissed from the military in 1998, Prabowo entered the kind of new democratic politics in post-reform Indonesia.

And he's tried multiple times to get the presidency, including two really bitterly fought contests against the current president, Jokowi, as he's known, which Prabowo lost.

And then Jokowi appointed him his defense minister to sort of bring him into the tent, as it were, and that eventually led to this unofficial alliance, where Jokowi's son became Prabowo's V.P.

candidate.

And Prabowo has really ridden on the back of Jokowi -- Jokowi's incredible popularity to finally make, it seems, into the presidential palace.

And I think the appeal was in part his own kind of strongman, tough guy image, but that wasn't enough.

It was really the implicit backing of Jokowi, whose economic reforms, his economic growth that he's achieved in Indonesia has made him really, really popular with approval ratings of something like 80 percent at the end of his second term, which is something that most U.S. presidents would kill for.

GEOFF BENNETT: And, as I mentioned, their victory is raising questions about this country's -- that country's commitment to democratic values.

Indonesia is now the world's third largest democracy.

And it's a democracy that was hard-won after the Suharto regime.

So what does their election suggest about democracy and human rights moving forward there?

BEN BLAND: Well, I think there were real concerns that, under Jokowi, while his economic policies were quite popular, some of the checks and balances in Indonesia's democracy were eroded.

And that's concerning.

And when you kind of hand the levers of a system that's been weakened somewhat to a character like Prabowo, that understandably makes a lot of Indonesian human rights activists incredibly nervous.

But I think the important thing to understand is, firstly, most the Indonesians who voted for Prabowo did it because they want him to lead their democracy.

They don't want him to dismantle it.

And the second thing to understand, I think, is that while there are concerns about democratic erosion or backsliding, that's not unique to Indonesia.

We have seen similar problems in the U.S., in Europe and elsewhere in the world.

And Indonesia still has a highly decentralized system.

There still are a lot of channels for opposition in the Parliament, through the media, through civil society.

And democracy isn't just about elections.

It's about what you do afterwards.

So, I think this battle over power and influence in Indonesia's system is going to continue even if Prabowo is confirmed as the president.

That's not the end of the story.

I think there's a lot of fight to come.

Plus, we have to acknowledge that Prabowo does seem to suggest that he's a changed character.

And, ultimately, in the end, it was democracy that's allowed him, it seems, to get the top job.

GEOFF BENNETT: In the minute we have left, Ben Bland, this is a region, of course, where the U.S. and China have been on a collision course over Taiwan and a host of other issues.

What are the stakes here?

What are the stakes for U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific?

BEN BLAND: Well, Indonesia is a really, really important nonaligned country.

So it's never going to have an alliance with the United States, even though it has quite close military cooperation.

It's also not going to be an ally of China, which doesn't have its own allies in any case.

But it's a really influential country in terms of the security in the region, in terms of technology, the future of electric vehicles.

A lot of key minerals are mined in Indonesia.

So the decisions (AUDIO GAP) they work with, whether they use U.S. technology or Chinese technology, are going to have a really big impact on this broader competition.

And precisely because Indonesia won't ally with either side, it's a really important country, where all sides want to get more influence in different ways.

And Indonesia wants to kind of fiercely defend its independence and try and play off the U.S. and China against each other for its own sort of maximum economic benefits.

But I think that's going to get harder and harder in a world where U.S. (AUDIO GAP) is increasingly intense, and there will be pressure on countries such as Indonesia to make many, many difficult choices.

GEOFF BENNETT: Ben Bland, director of the Asia-Pacific Program at Chatham House, thanks for your time this evening.

BEN BLAND: Thanks.