Time now to go inside Kentucky politics and review the big news Political Play of the Week in Kentucky.

And we're joined by our favorite political commentators who will be with us on election night, former Kentucky secretaries of State Trey Grayson, who's on screen.

Right.

And Bob Babich, who's on screen left.

Good to see both of them.

Both have their own practices and government relations and we're glad to have them with us.

So let's talk about the governor's race and some polls that came out today.

Gentlemen, let's start with the one that's more GOP aligned that came out earlier today showing a much tighter race between Cameron and Bashir.

Trey, I'll go to you first.

So you have an independent group that is Republican leaning reported a narrow lead for Bashir, but below 50%, just a few points right around the margin of error.

Cameron campaign obviously is pointing to this as evidence of gaining ground with a couple of weeks left.

And they would also point out the voter registration advantages that again, this month, three times as many Republicans registered to vote as Democrats.

So they say think one of them put to me those footsteps that Andy Beshear is hearing are real.

Oh, so how real, Bob, do you think those footsteps are?

Do you think that poll has got it to close not just for comfort before reality?

Well, that's what some have said, Trey, Trey and Renee, because Common, yes.

I hear is course, you're about four, five, six points.

It was perhaps more at one point, according to folks who were inside those camps and some of the polling crowd fundraising groups as well.

The thing that happens on a day like this is that we get calls, Trey, and they say, is it really true or is it really 16?

Those were the calls before or when we had that poll.

So we're a little bit all over the place on polling.

And if you take this one and average it with another, that is maybe within this 24 hour period, it still might be four or five points.

But what happens at the end of a race or the end of the ballgame, that's where we are.

Well, and let's talk about that poll.

So, Bob, you were alluding to it, the poll that came out just shortly before we began talking from Hart Research, which leans Democratic, has the governor over that magic 51% has him at 52 to Cameron's 44.

When they did this poll back in September, he was at 51 to 42.

Prior to that, in July, 48 to 45.

So believing these polls, I mean, essentially, Bob, what should voters take away, if anything, from this?

What does it mean?

What does it signal?

And should we really care and put a lot of stock into it.

Put it up, stock into it to go vote?

It's it's indicative of the confusion about races and polls that we've seen in recent years across the country.

But still, if you're paying attention here, this is a close race.

It is not over.

It's not decided.

Both campaigns say that repeatedly, even if the governor is a 51 or 52.

So things are changing just in the public psyche.

Public news cycle.

So voters could shift around a little bit of what lead is a big lead.

Eight points is a heck of a lot to is not much.

And so put all that together it's it's a competitive race competitive moment and it begs for participation.

I haven't really heard an estimate from Secretary of State Michael Adams yet on what the turnout will be.

But anybody watching or listening or encouraging others, let's show up this time.

Well, Kentucky Secretary of State Michael Adams did tell us about a week or so ago when he was in our studio that he anticipates turn out to be around 40%, I think, in the 2019 cycle.

Trey Grayson, it was around 43% and some change.

So we look to be aligned to what we might do in 2019.

Yeah, we had about a five point difference, five points higher in 2019 versus 2015.

And yeah, I think so.

43 is right smack dab in the middle.

And one of the things that I think we'll be looking for on election night is where does that turnout come from?

Is it coming from more Republican areas?

And if, for example, if rural Kentucky comes out in higher numbers, that's probably a good sign for Cameron.

If Lexington and Louisville come up with higher numbers, it's probably a good sign for Beshear.

But even in those pockets, if it's higher in Mayfield, that's probably better for Beshear.

If it's higher in the Republican leaning suburbs, that might be better for Cameron.

And so if you look at Jefferson County, it can be assumed may be a foregone conclusion that Beshear will take that.

But the question is, by how much and how much can Cameron carve into that?

Yeah, that's exactly right.

I remember in my races we never I never thought I could win Jefferson County, but the idea was to lower those margins.

And then, as we said, if you could then win the surrounding counties by more, maybe you would win metropolitan Louisville.

Every vote matters.

So if you do a little bit better in one county than than in the past, you might lose that county, but you might ultimately win on Election Day because of those turnout differences.

There's a growing Republican representation in the General Assembly in Jefferson County since last that we had a statewide election like this.

So that could make a difference, right?

Yeah.

And this is all you know, the polling is we've been talking about, as polling has always shown, Beshear in the lead in this race and I think is perceived to be the favorite probably accurately.

But the thing that Republicans and other analysts looking at this would say all that Republican growth, the number of legislators and it's not just gerrymandering, the voter registration statistics that I mentioned earlier, parts of the county level, a lot more Republican.

So those are the kinds of things you'd say, fundamentally, this is a good time to run as a Republican, but it's always been it's always hard to beat an incumbent governor.

Right.

So, Bob, come to you.

Finally, the candidates gubernatorial candidates are making several rounds of appearances, joint appearances, forums or debates.

An unusually high number, actually, I think five total.

So tell us about how do you think this could even help those undecideds get in firmly into one camp or the other?

Are they paying attention and and really the value of having them appear as many times as they are?

Well, we can say a lot about this because folks like us are very pro debate.

We want to see candidates.

We want to hear them.

But I think the public at large also wants to know who they are looking at things about where they stand, their style, their substance and all that goes with it.

Lately, in states, if someone has a lead, they say, we're not going to debate.

And in many states, it's just one debate for us to have.

Forums like this is a credit, to be sure, and hammer both.

And I think we should thank them for it and encourage in other races.

We don't even have all the down ballot focus on Katie because a couple have chosen to come in.

More and more people are going to want to see their candidates since we can see anything just about an iPhone any time.

Let's let's be thankful that we have five debates.

Couple still to come, including yours, which is the biggest and best of all.

Well, Jerry, Bob was just saying, you know, coming Monday, that's when the General Cameron and Governor Bashir will be here.

Yeah.

And that's going to be exciting.

I'm pumped and ready to go.

But the value of having them and Bob was saying, you know, to their credit, they're appearing and doing this.

Yeah, they're doing it all over the state.

And I do think your interview with them will be really important because unlike a lot of these other appearances that are more one question you each get to answer, there's going to be more engagement.

So for the undecided voters, it's a great opportunity.

Also, by the way, I love that Bob's sporting the Jim Jordan look today.

I hadn't noticed.

Look at that.

The the never the never Speaker of the House Jim Jordan Babbage's.

Babbage is in his corner.

That's one vote he needs to match or not in D.C., Bob.

Well, that's terrific.

That's a wrap.

All right, well, that is a wrap.

Gentlemen, thank you so very much.

We will see you, of course, on November 7th.

And we'll see you all of you, very soon.

So thank you so much.

We appreciate you guys.