Time now for end of week review of really the governor's race as we welcome the dynamic duo from Piper Smith.

We've got Abbey Piper and Jared Smith with us to talk about the governor's race.

And particularly, let's start off with the poll that came out today, Emerson College, who had a previous poll a few weeks ago that said something drastically different than this poll does today.

Jared Smith, tell us about the nut graph of this, showing it a dead heat.

What do you make of the numbers?

Well, you have to decide.

Did you believe the poll a couple of weeks ago?

Do you want to believe this one?

Because they both tell two different, completely different stories.

I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

I was not very fond of the previous poll.

I think, you know, it had some subsections that just didn't make any sense to me at all.

So that could explain why you would think you're at 16%, Governor.

I do know the governor's camp feels pretty confident.

Their internal polling shows them doing very well.

So if this poll is a canary in the coal mine, then, you know, there's a grave cause for concern.

However, I mean, I don't know how much stock you can put in that poll or any poll really this close.

I do think the race is tightening.

I do think the governor still in the lead and I still think the governor probably wins.

Yeah.

What do you make of it?

And if you do some granular level explanation and we look at like women scoring high for Cameron, like talk to us about what you thought might have been surprising about this particular poll.

Sure.

And I think that polls, especially once voting has already started, is already problematic.

Polls should be conducted and released before early voting starts.

That's what I find interesting.

And I do think that it sways the way people last minute decision makers decide to vote.

You know, I think Cameron is doing well with Republican women, which is a surprise, especially based on the last constitutional amendment we had last fall.

I do think it'll be a close race.

I've always kind of thought it would be a close race.

But I also think you just can't put too much stock in those polls, especially as they get close to the wire.

It says that the poll consisted of, well, I think likely voters and people that had already voted.

Mm hmm.

So was very interesting.

If you've already voted, what do you tell the poll then?

Yeah, because then know you're trying to game out.

So your your candidate wins.

I mean, I don't know, I just something went through my head.

Right.

I think that's a good point.

November 7th is the poll that matters.

We we've said that countless times throughout this campaign.

So they've both been doing their bus tours.

They both had some high powered, high profile people from Jack Harlow, the rapper to the governor, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who's been on the trail with with Daniel Cameron.

So this is the time you bring out the full guns, Jared Smith.

And if you don't do it now, I mean, you just don't do it.

But there's a value to all of these kind of high profile endorsements that you on.

That's a that's a question.

Usually you look for other community validators.

You know, Jack Harlow, you know, runs in a very young crowd, obviously, that the governor would hope Trump will turn out and vote for because they're more likely to be his supporters and Cameron supporters, you know you've seen Cameron do re announces Trump endorsement and carry that recently as well as going around with Rand Paul and Sarah Huckabee Sanders and some others.

You know, I just, you know, the Republicans are starting to come home and, you know, like I said, I just think, you know, the governor's got to leave.

Can you hold on to it down the stretch here?

Yeah.

And in the governor's perspective, I mean, the governor may eke out a win, but you don't expect that to be a down ticket.

There was no down ticket coattail effect here, right?

I mean.

Certainly do not expect that to occur.

And you know, I think we've also seen different ties to Biden with Beshear.

And Cameron has trotted out his endorsement from Trump in the final week, something notably that was not mentioned in the earlier parts of this campaign.

I think if those polls have any merit and like Jared said, if we're coming close to the middle of the to the two, it's in the middle that may be a part of it.

I also think Cameron performed well on the gubernatorial debate that was held here.

And so, you know, I think it's it could be anybody's game, but this is still a very red state.

And I think it's important to remember that.

But if we look about look at how this how abortion conversation and narrative has unfolded during this whole campaign season, the fact that Governor Bashir would essentially come out actively as a pro-choice candidate, maybe it's subtle, Jared Smith, but you had the ads that talked about no exceptions for rape and incest, and then you had the ad with Hadley, who had been sexually abused.

I mean, you know, those were some very powerful messages.

And it was it was really touting a pro-choice message in a way.

Yeah.

The fact that if the governor successful in keeping his seat, a lot of it will be due, in fact, to the decision to Kentucky's existing trigger trigger law, which is, you got something as barbaric and horrific.

And the polling even in that Emerson poll, if you take that for what it is, show that majority of Kentuckians, both male and female, but both parties believe there should be exceptions on the books and currently there aren't any right now.

And so I think you might see a little protest vote against Cameron for supporting the trigger ban at the ballot box.

But, Abby, you make the point about how Biden nomics.

We heard that a lot.

And the one refrain we heard in several of the debate appearances with General Cameron and the governor was crazy versus normal.

And then he had a whole kind of narrative that followed that lexicon.

People remember stuff like that, right?

And that could be persuasive.

I totally agree.

And Cameron is a very polished communicator, has been since he first entered the stage.

And it's not something I would take for granted, certainly.

You know, I also think that as the conversations about abortion have continued to to develop, Republicans are looking at what to see that they can do that will really benefit Kentuckians and wanting to listen to that voice.

And I think that they're listening and and developing that ideology along the way.

Right.

And possibly with some plans.

We know that Senator Whitney Westerfield has a bill draft out there that gets to making abortion not the choice right.

And to supporting women who do carry their pregnancies to term.

And, you know, with that, having some Medicaid support, etc..

So we'll see if any of this conversation has any legs when we get to the 2024 legislative session.

So much to break down.

Thank you guys, for being a constant presence for us these last few months.

And here we go, November 7th.

Go vote.

Go vote.

Yes.