Time now for a mid-week check in Inside Kentucky Politics with veteran journalist Al Cross, who knows Kentucky politics better than most and most of us included.

Thank you all for being with us.

Appreciate it.

Glad to be.

Here.

Let's talk about the fourth Congressional District.

This is the one that's getting a lot of national attention.

The primary, the GOP primary, Republican Thomas Massie, incumbent Ed Gal.

Then a lot of hay made about who would appear, with whom, when, and all of that.

And now their eye ads.

Tell us about this race and why President Trump is so involved and has a lot at stake.

Perhaps.

Well, President Trump and Congressman Massie have had a history of back and forth.

Massie says he was actually vetted for Secretary of Agriculture after he endorsed Trump late in the 2024 campaign.

But we don't know if that was really serious.

I think the break really came when Massie co-sponsored the Epstein Files Transparency Act with representative O'Connor of California.

He had gotten crosswise with Trump on Iran and the initial attacks on the nuclear facilities.

But, and Trump said he would work hard against him.

But I think the Epstein file, law really sealed the deal.

And and the big beautiful bill.

Right.

He didn't vote.

Well, but that was to be expected because he's such a deficit hawk.

Right.

In this case, you know, you're going right after, Trump's, ego, which is all that really counts for Trump.

And Trump is on kind of rocky ground these days because, his approval ratings are the lowest ever.

And, he wants to maintain some measure of control over Republicans in Congress.

And if Massie was to overcome the onslaught that he is facing from Trump and his allies, then that would be a signal that, you can, incur Donald Trump's wrath and survive and.

Survive, right?

Well, even Thomas Massie said here Monday night, and perhaps that wasn't on air, but he said he's, you know, single digits, low single digit lead over gal Ryan.

He seemed to be tempered in that, but still confident that he would come out.

Do you expect there to be a different result?

Well, I think, the involvement of these outside groups, might, wind up doing messy in.

You've got the committee that's associated with the American Israel Political Action Committee, doing an ad that has Massie voting with, two of those wild woman liberals, of color.

And, that punches a lot of buttons.

But, I think that Massie has developed and maintain such a folk hero kind of following in his district over, 13.5 years that, you know, he's a pretty tough nut to crack.

Yeah.

And he made the point, on your show, the other night.

Trump's after me because he wants to keep all the other congressmen in line.

And I think there's a certain flinty independence about Kentucky voters.

They don't want their representatives to be a rubber stamp.

And, even though, Trump clearly has control of the Republican Party, it's anybody's guess who's going to turn out in these elections.

The Indiana elections where he got involved in those legislative races, he clearly drove up turnout.

Right.

And it remains to be seen if he can do that in a congressional race against a well known figure.

A lot of these state legislators aren't really well known.

All right.

So speaking of endorsements, we know and we've talked about this perhaps on comment last Friday about, of course, the president also gave Andy Barr and Ralph Alvarado the sixth Congressional district.

Alvarado is running through to replace Andy Barr, his wanting to get into the Senate.

So if Trump if Alvarado and Barr were to wrangle Ron not, does that show an erosion of Trump's power and influence, or is it the Barr?

Alvarado endorsements do not count for very much at all, because they were probably going to win anyway.

And, you know, it's been Trump's routine to endorse winners so he can run up his winning record.

With Massie.

You know, his, influence, is at risk.

Yeah.

So, he can, win those other two.

But if he loses Massie, it's a big hit for him.

Let's talk about the U.S.

Senate and not necessarily so much about Barr and Daniel Cameron, but about Amy McGrath.

Charles Booker today, you were just saying that Amy McGrath is up on air with a pretty good ad, but it may be too, too little, too late.

Yeah.

She has had a very hard time getting people to give her a third look.

You know, she, ran strongly against Barr in 2018, in the sixth district, raised a record amount of money.

More money than Mitch McConnell to run against him, because, after all, he's a national punching bag for Democrats.

And, she slipped coming out of the gate.

And, the Covid pandemic and Booker's late surge, complicated that and, you know, she just, never really, Jasper, as they say, and suffered a, crushing defeat.

And I think, a lot of Democrats just wrote her off after that.

And, it's, it's hard, to get, a third look from people, but, I wrote, a few weeks ago that she was probably the Democrat who would have the best chance.

And even that would be a longshot.

Dale Romans ran some ads for a while, and, you know, he was campaigning as, Kentucky's version of Joe Manchin.

Right.

Which has some appeal in the state.

But, I don't see him on the air now.

And, my guess is that, Booker is the clear favorite.

Yeah.

Going to the Republican primary.

What do you think with this contest?

Is Andy Barr now, the foregone conclusive winner here, or does Daniel Cameron, who's struggled with his fundraising but is doing this, you know, multi-city stop for the next few days?

You think that'll be impactful at all?

Well, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which Cameron beats Barr.

But he is getting a good deal of support from, the Liberty side of the Republican Party.

The more libertarian side, you know, the Rand Paul J. Williams, crowd and, some of the people in the state House, but, I think that's still a minority of the Republican Party turnout.

What do you think turnout will be?

You know, I really don't know.

There aren't many local elections, out there.

Or not as many as usual.

And certainly not many in the Democratic primary.

There will be, a lot of counties where there's a pretty good Republican turnout, but there will be some where it's, not much at all.

And, I would say it'll be somewhere south of 20%.

Yeah.

Any other words of wisdom you want to share with us about this primary season?

If you had to do a narrative about this whole primary contest, what would it be overall?

Well, from a personal point of view, I think it's unhealthy for one person, even the president of the United States, to have so much sway over, elections when people are choosing their representatives to Congress.

You know, it, it undermines the whole checks and balances on which our government is based.

So I can only hope that, the Republican voters will, exhibit their independent streak and make a judgment, based on something other than a presidential endorsement.

Good words to end on.

Thank you.

All across.