>>> FROM FIGHTING ALONGSIDE RUSSIAN FORCES TO STAGING ARMED UPRISING AGAINST THE KREMLIN AND SUPPORTING COUPS IN AFRICA, THE WAGNER MERCENARY GROUP NEXT TARGET COULD BE THE WEST, SO SAYS JOSHUA, CONTRIBUTE AND WRITER FOR THE NEW YORKER WHO RECENTLY PROFILED WAGNER CONSCRIPTS INCLUDING MEMBERS OF THE RUSSIAN RULING CLASS.

HE JOINS WALTER ISAACSON TO DISCUSS HIS ALARMING NEW FINDINGS.

>> THANK YOU.

WELCOME TO THE SHOW.

>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME.

>> YOU HAVE THIS GREAT PIECE IN THE NEW YORKER ABOUT THE WAGNER GROUP, MERCENARY ARMOR LOYAL TO PUTIN BUT THEN REBELLED AGAINST HIM.

UNCLEAR WHERE THE LOYALTIES ARE.

BIG NEWS THIS WEEK LITHUANIAN PRESIDENT AND POLISH PRIME MINISTER ARE WORRIED THE WAGNER GROUP IS TRYING TO DESTABILIZE NATO BY GOING TO THE BORDER OF POLAND.

LET ME READ YOU SOMETHING THE POLISH PRIME MINISTER SAID, THE WAGNER GROUP IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS.

UNITS OF THIS GROUP ARE DEPLOYED ON NATO'S EASTERN FLANK TO DESTABILIZE IT.

WHAT IS THE WAGNER GROUP DOING AND WHY?

>> IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THE WAGNER GROUP, OWING TO ITS LEADER, YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN OFTEN TIMES AS MUCH INFORMATION OR PR OPERATION AS IT IS MILITARY.

WE SAW THAT AT CERTAIN POINTS IN THE WAR IN UKRAINE OVER THE WINTER AND SPRING.

REALLY, THAT IS INTRINSICALLY TIED TO YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN'S BIOGRAPHY, HE AMONG OTHER THINGS WAS THE CREATOR OF THAT INTERNET RESEARCH AGENCY, THE SO-CALLED ST. PETERSBURG TROLL FARM, AMONG OTHER THINGS CAUSED MISTRESS ONLINE AND PART OF THE RUSSIAN EFFORT TO INTERFERE IN THE 2016 ELECTION.

TROLLING BOTH METAPHORICALLY AND IN SOME WAYS QUITE LITERALLY, THE WEST IS VERY MUCH PART OF PRIGOZHIN'S M.O.

AND GETTING WESTERN LEADERS, SOCIETIES, MILITARY LEADERS UPSET, WORRIED, GUESSING ABOUT WHAT WAGNER MIGHT DO IS EXACTLY PART OF PRIGOZHIN'S LARGER GAME.

I DON'T NECESSARILY THINK WAGNER INCURSION INTO EUROPE, ESPECIALLY NATO TERRITORY, IS ALL THAT LIKELY IN THE NEAR TERM .

BY MOST ESTIMATES, SEVERAL THOUSAND AT MOST WAGNER FIGHTERS THAT HAVE RELOCATED TO BASES IN BELARUS.

I DON'T THINK THAT IS REALISTIC CONTINGENT GIVEN THEIR SIZE AND ARMAMENTS THAT COULD TAKE ON NATO FORCES IN THE BALTIC STATES AND POLAND OR ELSEWHERE THAT WOULD ESSENTIALLY BE A SUICIDE MISSION FOR WAGNER WHERE THEY ACTUALLY TO ENGAGE NATO FORCES.

KEEPING NATO ON EDGE, KEEPING NATO COUNTRIES GUESSING, WORRIED , HAVING TO DEVOTE THEIR OWN RESOURCES TO PRE-EMPTIVELY PROTECTING AGAINST WHAT MIGHT BE A WAGNER THREAT, EVEN UNLIKELY ONE, ALL OF THAT MARY MUCH -- VERY MUCH FITS WITH PRIGOZHIN AND RUSSIA OVER THE YEARS.

>> YOU SAY PRIGOZHIN AND RUSSIA'S STRATEGY, ARE THEY STILL ALIGNED ?

>> THAT IS ONE OF THE MANY MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION SURROUNDING WAGNER.

NOT JUST ONE OF THOSE BUT SEVERAL TRYING TO UNDERSTAND THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WAGNER AND THE RUSSIAN STATE, PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE.

EVEN WITH THE HINDSIGHT, THE HELP OF HINDSIGHT LOOKING BACK AT WAGNER OPERATIONS IN SYRIA, AFRICA, AND OF COURSE UKRAINE OVER THE LAST YEAR.

IT IS NOT EVEN ALWAYS CLEAR WHEN WE ACTUALLY HAVE SOME DATA TO LOOK AT, HOW EXACTLY WAGNER IS CONNECTED TO THE RUSSIAN STATE HOW THEY CARRY OUT KREMLIN ORDERS OR ARE THEY FOLLOWING THEIR OWN INTEREST AND IMPERATIVES?

ESPECIALLY COMMERCIAL ONES AND HOW THAT MIGHT WORK IN THE FUTURE I THINK IS EVEN MORE OF A MYSTERY.

CLEARLY, PUTIN WAS DISPLEASED, TO PUT IT MILDLY, BY THE MUTINY, INSURRECTION, WHATEVER TERM YOU MIGHT PREFER THAT WAGNER MOUNTED, SPECIFICALLY PRIGOZHIN IN LATE JUNE.

WOULD LIKE TO PUT WAGNER ON A TIGHTER LEASH, HAVE MORE HIERARCHICAL CONTROL, BRING THEM TO THE SO-CALLED VERTICAL OF POWER AS THE PUTIN ERA HIERARCHY OF CENTRALIZED POWER HAS OFTEN REFERRED TO.

THAT IS TRICKY BECAUSE IN WAGNER'S VERY DNA IS ELEMENT OF ECONOMY AND DENIABILITY.

WHAT MADE WAGNER, WAGNER IS THE ABILITY FOR THE KREMLIN BOTH WITTINGLY AND WITH SERIOUSNESS KEEP THE GROUP AT ARMS LENGTH.

SAY THOSE AREN'T OUR GUYS PICKED WHAT THEY ARE DOING IN SYRIA AND AFRICA IS NOT OUR BUSINESS.

OF COURSE IT ALWAYS MATCHED UP WITH LARGER KREMLIN GEOPOLITICAL INTERESTS BUT IT WAS VERY CONVENIENT TO HAVE THIS DENIABLE SHADOW FORCE.

THAT IS A PARADOX NOW THAT THE KREMLIN WILL HAVE TROUBLE SOLVING.

>> ONE OF THE AMAZING THINGS IN YOUR PIECE IS THE DESCRIPTION OF THE BRUTALITY OF THE WAGNER GROUP.

WE ALL KNEW IT BUT YOU REALLY BROUGHT IT HOME TO US, DESCRIBED THAT AND HOW YOU GOT THAT IN YOUR PIECE.

>> EVER SINCE WAGNER ENTERED THE WAR INTO UKRAINE LAST SPRING, WE BEGAN TO HEAR INFORMATION TRICKLING OUT ABOUT THAT KIND OF BRUTALITY THAT YOU MENTIONED.

PRACTICE KNOWN AS -- RUSSIAN FOR ZEROING OUT REALLY MACABRE AND AWFUL EUPHEMISM FOR BATTLEFIELD EXECUTION, THE KILLING OF THOSE WAGNER FIGHTERS MAINLY RECRUITS FROM RUSSIAN PRISONS WHO REFUSED TO MARCH FORWARD, WHO TRIED TO RETREAT, RAN AWAY FROM TRAINING BASES, ROUNDED UP BY WAGNER SECURITY AND IN FRONT OF OTHER WAGNER FIGHTERS PUBLICLY EXECUTED.

THAT IS A DEGREE OF BRUTALITY WE DON'T FIND, EVEN FROM THE RUSSIAN ARMED FORCES BY AND LARGE.

WE KNOW FROM THIS YEAR AND A HALF OF WAR HAS ITS OWN SHARE OF BRUTALITY AND WAR CRIMES, THE MASSACRE AT ABUJA AND TOO MANY OTHERS TO NAME.

THIS SEEMS SPECIFIC TO WAGNER.

THE USE OF HUMAN WAVE ATTACKS, STYLE OF FIGHTING WE HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE WORLD WAR II IN WHICH ONE WAY OR ANOTHER LARGELY OF THESE CONVICT RECRUITS RECRUITED OUT OF RUSSIAN PRISONS SENT INTO THE FIGHT, NOT EVEN TO ADVANCE OR SEIZE TERRITORY, THE FIRST WAVES SENT TO DRAW FIRE, TO BE ATTACKED SO OTHER WAVES BEHIND THEM COULD IDENTIFY UKRAINIAN POSITIONS AND FIRE UPON THEM.

THE SURVIVAL RATE FROM THESE HUMAN WAVE ATTACKS WAS ABSOLUTELY DREADFUL.

BODIES PILING UP.

I WAS ABLE TO SPEAK TO SOME OF THESE PRISON RECRUITS FIGHTERS WHO WERE INJURED OR CAPTURED ON THE BATTLEFIELD IN UKRAINE AND LOCATED OR HELD IN UKRAINIAN CUSTODY.

INSIDE UKRAINE I WAS ABLE TO SPEAK WITH SOME OF THE FIGHTERS WITH THEIR PERMISSION, THEY DESCRIBED INCREDIBLY GRUESOME, DIFFICULT, TRAUMATIC DETAIL HOW THEY AND THEIR COMRADES WERE USED IN THESE HUMAN WAVE ATTACKS WITH DEATH ALL AROUND THEM.

ONE WAVE AFTER ANOTHER MOW DOWN BY MACHINE GUN FIRE TARGETED WITH ARTILLERY.

WHAT I HEARD FROM UKRAINIAN MILITARY COMMANDERS WAS ESPECIALLY AT THE BEGINNING, A SENSE OF SHOCK AND DISORIENTATION AT HOW IRRATIONAL WAGNER FOUGHT.

WAGNER KEPT PUSHING HIM NO MATTER HOW MANY LOSSES THEY TOOK, THEY KEPT PUSHING FORWARD ONE WAVE AFTER ANOTHER.

FOR UKRAINIAN MILITARY UNITS, THIS WAS A DIFFICULT TACTIC TO DEFEND AGAINST.

THAT IN SOME MEASURE EXPLAINS WHY WAGNER WAS ONE METER AFTER ANOTHER WITH EXTRA ORDINARY LOSSES ON ITS OWN SIDE ABLE TO PUSH FORWARD, TAKE TERRITORY IN EASTERN UKRAINE ACROSS THE PORTION OF THE FRONT WHERE WAGNER WAS MOST ACTIVE ALL THE WAY UP TO THE CITY OF BAKHMUT, THE SIGNAL BATTLE FOR WAGNER AND ONE OF THE SIGNAL BATTERS -- BATTLES OF UKRAINE THAT WAGNER WAS ABLE TO CAPTURE MID- MAY.

>> ONE OF THE RECRUITS YOU TALK TO, A PRISONER THAT YOU TALK TO, I THINK HE DESCRIBED WHAT YOU JUST DESCRIBED AS A MEAT STORM.

THEN HE SAID IT WAS A GIANT MISTAKE.

GET ME INTO THE MIND OF A PERSON LIKE THAT.

>> THE PERSON YOU MENTIONED WAS RECRUITED OUT OF RUSSIAN PRISON, INITIALLY HE RECEIVED PRISON SENTENCE OF ALMOST 20 YEARS FOR MURDER.

IT WAS ONLY A FEW YEARS INTO THAT SENTENCE WHEN THE WAR IN UKRAINE STARTED.

AND WENT PRIGOZHIN PERSONALLY ARRIVED BY HELICOPTER IN THE PRISON YARD TO MAKE HIS PITCH, ESSENTIALLY JOIN WAGNER, FIGHT IN UKRAINE, YOU MIGHT DIE, PRIGOZHIN WAS VERY DIRECT AND HONEST, HE DID NOT HIDE THE COST OF THE WAR, THAT KIND -- GAVE HIM A KIND OF APPEAL AMONG CERTAIN SEGMENTS OF RUSSIAN SOCIETY.

IF YOU SURVIVE, WHICH I DON'T GUARANTEE, AFTER SIX MONTHS, YOU WILL HAVE YOUR FREEDOM.

FOR SOMEONE LIKE ALEXI, WHO IS DESPERATE AND SAW NEW FUTURE FOR HIMSELF, HAD CHILDREN ON THE OUTSIDE WHO HE THOUGHT HE MIGHT NEVER SEE AGAIN ORDERED THE AN OLD MAN WHEN HE GOT OUT OF PRISON, THIS GAMBLE SEEMED WORTH IT.

NO MATTER HOW MUCH PRIGOZHIN EXPLAINED AND DID NOT HIDE THE HORRORS OF WAR, IMPOSSIBLE TO IMAGINE THE TRUE NATURE OF THE SO-CALLED MEAT STORMS, AS YOU SAID, THE USE OF HUMAN WAVE ATTACKS, THE USE OF PRACTICE OF ZEROING OUT THAT I REFER TO.

THE ACTUAL, VISCERAL, REAL EXPERIENCE FOR SOMEONE LIKE ALEXI, ONCE LATE ENDED UP AS A PARTICIPANT IN ONE OF THESE MEAT STORMS WAS FAR MORE AWFUL AND TERRIFYING THAN ANYTHING THAT HAD ALLOWED FOR.

AND FOR THAT REASON, ALEXI BELIEVED, AT LEAST AS HE TOLD ME, HIS PARTICIPATION IN THE WAGNER WAR EFFORT WAS A MISTAKE .

ALSO BECAUSE IT BECAME CLEAR TO ALEXI, AS HE NARRATED TO ME FROM UKRAINIAN CUSTODY, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT CAVEAT, I WAS NOT ABLE TO INDEPENDENTLY VERIFY MANY OF THE DETAILS OF THE STORY LET ALONE HOW HE RELATED TO THEM EMOTIONALLY OR INTELLECTUALLY.

THE RECRUITING PITCH PRIGOZHIN MADE WAS VERY MUCH CENTERED ON RUSSIA UNDER ATTACK ON FOREIGN WESTERN NATO ARMIES FIGHTING RUSSIA, THE USE OF FOREIGN MERCENARIES AND THAT IS WHO ALEXI THOUGHT HE WAS GOING TO UKRAINE TO FIGHT.

WHEN HE WAS ULTIMATELY CAPTURED BY A UKRAINIAN MILITARY UNIT BY GUYS HE SAID WERE MORE OR LESS JUST LIKE HIMSELF, THAT ALSO CAME AS A SHOCK, AT LEAST AS ALEXI NARRATED TO ME AND FOR THE REASON FOR HIM TO BELIEVE HIS PARTICIPATION IN THE WAR TO BE A MISTAKE.

>> ONE OF THE ORIGINAL COMMANDERS OF THE WAGNER GROUP IS DIMITRI, VERY MUCH NAZI SYMPATHIZER.

HOW MUCH IS THAT PART OF THE WAGNER GROUP ?

>> YOU ARE RIGHT, THE NAME ITSELF COMES FROM HIS OWN PROFESSED PROCLIVITY FOR THE GERMAN COMPOSER, RICHARD WAGNER, WHO HIMSELF WAS CELEBRATED FIGURE IN THE THIRD REICH AND AMONG HITLER'S FAMOUS COMPOSERS.

I HEARD FROM A NUMBER OF PEOPLE AND WIDE REPORTING ON THIS FROM RUSSIAN COLLEAGUES AND OPEN- SOURCE OF BOWEL UTKIN'S NAZI OR FASCIST PROCLIVITIES, CIRCULATIONS ABOUT RUSSIAN DOSSIER CENTER, SHOWING HIS SIGNATURE ON EXTERNAL SIGNATURE WITH TWO LIGHTNING BOLTS, SIGNATURE OF THE SS.

WHETHER THAT REASON OR GENERAL CLIMATE OF TOTAL BRUTALITY, CRUELTY, SADISM, THE INTERNAL CULTURE OF WAGNER, AS WE TALKED ABOUT WITH THE PRACTICE, FOR EXAMPLE, ZEROING OUT THE USE OF THESE MEAT STORMS IS INCREDIBLY BRUTAL.

THERE'S ANOTHER MOMENT IN THE PIECE I DESCRIBED FROM SYRIA WHERE WAGNER WAS ACTIVE OVER THE COURSE OF MANY YEARS AND STILL HAS A PRESENCE, VIDEO SURFACED AT A CERTAIN POINT SHOWING FIGHTERS WHO WERE LATER DETERMINED TO BE ATTACHED TO A WAGNER UNIT TORTURING A SYRIAN CAPTIVE, BEATING WITH HIM SLEDGEHAMMERS, TRYING TO CUT OFF HIS HEAD WITH A KNIFE, ULTIMATELY DECAPITATING HIM WITH THE SHOVEL.

WHEN I ASKED ANOTHER MEMBER OF WAGNER, THE TEAM, ASKED ANOTHER FIGHTER WHO WAS IN SYRIA FOR WAGNER, HORRIFIED BY THIS VIDEO , DISGUSTED BY THE BEHAVIOR SHOWN ON IT.

ASKED WHERE CAME FROM, WHY IT HAPPENED, HE SAID IT WAS EXTREME EXAMPLE OF ESSENTIALLY WAGNER TACTICS.

TO TRY TO CAUSE MAXIMUM TERROR, MAXIMUM HORROR AS A WAY OF FRIGHTENING BUT ENEMY.

I HEARD SOMETHING SIMILAR FROM A WAGNER FIGHTER I SPOKE TO WHO HAD FOUGHT IN UKRAINE WHERE HE LED A DETACHMENT OF PRISONER FIGHTERS.

THIS COMMANDER ALSO WITNESSED A SCENE OF SO-CALLED ZEROING OUT WHERE A NUMBER OF WAGNER FIGHTERS WERE PUBLICLY EXECUTED AFTER THEY APPARENTLY TRIED TO RETREAT FROM THE BATTLEFIELD.

THIS WAGNER COMMANDER SAID SOMETHING TO ME, THAT THIS STEMS FROM PRIGOZHIN'S OWN PHILOSOPHY IF YOU WILL, HIS OWN UNDERSTANDING OF WAR AND HOW TO CARRY IT OUT.

OF CAUSING MAXIMUM FEAR, NOT JUST TO THE ENEMY BUT WITHIN ONE'S OWN RANKS AS A WAY OF MAINTAINING DISCIPLINE.

WHY DO THOSE WAGNER FIGHTERS KEEP PUSHING FORWARD IN A WAY THAT I DESCRIBED HAVING HEARD ABOUT FROM THE UKRAINIAN COMMANDERS, THE WAY MOST OTHER MILITARY UNITS WOULD NOT BEHAVE ?

IT IS BECAUSE THEY ARE AFRAID IF THEY DIDN'T MOVE FORWARD, THEY WOULD BE MET WITH CERTAIN DEATH ON THE BACKEND, IF THEY CAME BACK WITHOUT HAVING ACHIEVED THEIR OBJECTIVE OR SEEM TO RETREAT.

IT WAS THROUGH THESE TERRIBLE METHODS THAT PRIGOZHIN BELIEVED HE WAS ACHIEVING A CERTAIN EFFECTIVENESS ON THE BATTLEFIELD.

>> YOU END YOUR PIECE WITH REPORTING FROM A CAMP IN BELARUS WHERE THIS FOUNDER OF PRIGOZHIN'S WAGNER GROUP, DMITRY UTKIN , TELLS A CROWD, LET ME QUOTE FROM YOUR PIECE, THIS IS WHAT HE SAYS, THIS IS NOT THE END BUT JUST THE BEGINNING OF THE BIGGEST JOB IN THE WORLD WHICH WILL BE CARRIED OUT VERY SOON.

THAT IS PRETTY OMINOUS.

WHAT IT HE MEAN BY THAT?

I AGREE.

IT IS OMINOUS.

THAT IS PART AND PARCEL OF THE WAGNER BRAND, IF YOU WILL.

TO PROJECT AN AIR OF MAXIMUM MINUTES.

WHAT I THINK IS REALLY GOING ON , AS WE TALKED ABOUT EARLIER IN OUR CONVERSATION, WAGNER, SPECIFICALLY PRIGOZHIN BUT PEOPLE LIKE UTKIN ARE STILL NEGOTIATING WITH THE CREWMEN ON WHAT THEIR FUTURE ROLE WILL BE, WHERE THEY WILL BE DEPLOYED AND HOW THEY'RE LARGELY OFF THE BATTLEFIELD FOR NOW IN UKRAINE BUT STILL VERY PRESENT IN PLACES LIKE AFRICA, SYRIA AS WELL.

I THINK WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS THE EVOLUTION INTO SOMETHING WE MIGHT CALL WAGNER 2.0.

THAT IS HAPPENING IN REAL TIME.

I THINK IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY EXACTLY HOW THIS GROUP WILL OPERATE AND WHERE GOING FORWARD.

WHAT IS CLEAR, THIS RETURNS TO SOME THEMES WE TALKED ABOUT SO FAR, PRIGOZHIN'S WINGS ARE MUCH LESS CLIPPED THAN WE MIGHT HAVE THOUGHT A MONTH AGO.

HE HAS MUCH MORE FREEDOM TO ACT AND PURSUE HIS AMBITIONS THEN WE MIGHT HAVE THOUGHT WAS THE CASE, SAY ON THE DAY OF JUNE 24th.

THE MERE FACT THAT UTKIN GAVE HIS SPEECH ALLUDING TO FUTURE WORK AND EXPANSION OF WORK SHOWS HOW MUCH THE WAGNER STORY IS STILL NOT OVER.

>> JOSHUA, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.