Voting is already underway in New Jersey, but tomorrow is the traditional election day.

And residents casting a ballot will determine who controls the state legislature.

All 120 seats, 40 in the Senate and 80 in the assembly are up for grabs, being decided under a newly redrawn legislative map.

And in what's considered an off year election where low turnout could be the deciding factor in close races, Democrats are trying to fend off a red wave as Republicans try to claw back a majority in at least one of the chambers, hoping to keep the momentum going after gaining seven seats just two years ago.

But this is also an election where culture wars have dominated.

Candidates on both sides of the aisle are campaigning with messaging that parental rights book bans and abortion are all on the ballot.

For more on the races to watch, I'm joined by veteran Democratic strategist Julie Roginsky and Republican strategist Bill Palatucci.

Julie, Bill, good to see you both.

Thanks for joining me.

Bill, let me start with you.

Are Republicans still capitalizing on the momentum of two years ago or is it a victory if they hold on to just hold on to the seven seats that they picked up in 2021?

Well, I think those are two important questions.

I think for of is this 2021 or is this 2022 Right.

Where?

2021.

Nobody saw it coming, picked up a net seven seats, greatly outspent in a number of districts, famously the Sweeney dirt race or is it 2022 where we thought we were going to get a chance of picking up some congressional seats and we only picked up the Kean seat?

So I think, you know, that is, you know, still yet to be seen.

I think in terms of what Republicans will see as a victory, it's picking up, you know, at least a seat or two, at a minimum, to declare victory.

That would, interestingly, by the way, this would be the third cycle in a row that Republicans picked up seats in the legislature.

I don't know when the last time that was done, but I think that would be quite, quite an accomplishment for the Republicans in such a blue state.

Julie, you know, it's interesting in talking to a couple of other veteran Democratic strategists in the last couple of weeks who felt like Democrats didn't necessarily seize the opportunity to campaign on really progressive issues.

And I'm thinking about things or more controversial issues, I should say.

You know, nurses at RW J striking Democrats weren't out on the picket lines with them.

Candidates, even for that matter, or the potential protections for LGBTQ students at schools being rolled back.

Have Democrats missed any opportunities here from what you see?

Well, first of all, I think Democrats have done a pretty poor job of messaging this cycle.

They let the Republicans determine the messaging.

As you said, they could have talked about LGBTQ students, but instead they allowed Republicans to define that issue as a parental choice issue, which obviously is not helpful to Democrats.

Look, the electorate was very, very clear two years ago, and I'm glad the Democrats got the message.

They want to hear about affordability.

They want to hear about how Democrats and Republicans are going to make their lives just a little bit easier to survive in a state that is incredibly expensive for everyday people to survive it.

And so from that perspective, I think it's important for Democrats to be laser focused on those issues, because how many more warning signs do we need to get from the electorate?

As this bill pointed out, we have lost seats over the last few cycles because we didn't laser focus on those issues.

Now, what's interesting to me is that, of course, neither side is laser focused on that this year.

Republicans are running on parental choice, which is obviously a social issue.

Democrats are running on abortion, which is also a social issue, although I would argue it's an economic issue as well.

But I'm not sure that either side is talking about the cost of property taxes or frankly, just the cost of getting a gas tank of gas in New Jersey the way they should be to do well this cycle.

We'll see.

It's an interesting sociological experiment this year as opposed to the issue that Republicans and Democrats do well on is not the issue that's first and foremost in the minds of voters from their perspective.

Well, yeah, that is interesting, Bill.

And if Julie is right in that this will be determined perhaps by these so-called culture wars, is there one that tipped the scale or just more importantly, drives turnout?

Because we know these off year elections are generally pretty low?

No, no, no.

I well understood.

I'll disagree on how Julie framed it.

Republicans this year are running as pro-cop, pro parent and pro border security.

And as always, you know, pro taxpayer.

That's the Republican mantra this year.

Pro parent, pro cop, pro taxpayer and pro border security.

We don't have to where the pro taxpayer on our sleeve.

People know that Republicans are generally seen as the as the party fighting for property tax relief and and against taxes and smaller budgets.

That goes without saying.

Republican and Democrats have handed Republicans a whole other host of issues, been car thefts and carjackings.

The fights over school board control, the offshore wind debacle that just happened.

So I think it really comes down to the the money that Democrats have on their side and the messaging that is that the Republicans back.

One of the things that's underreported to really quickly is change in the contribution limits this year.

Earlier this year, the legislature, you know, doubled the amount you can give to a legislative candidate and, you know, significantly increase the amount you can give to those legislative leadership committees.

And the Democrats have used those really, really well to their advantage because they don't have the message matrix in their favor.

Okay.

Very quickly, because we don't have much time left.

You can negate the fact that these competitive districts, though, Bill, they have a Democratic advantage and Republicans have not necessarily been able to get voters in on this, you know, advanced voting that's available, the early in-person, the vote by mail.

Julie, let me throw this one to you then.

Will that make the difference this election cycle?

Well, I do want to just respond to something Bill said very quickly, which is, of course, the issues that he mentioned.

Only one of them was about affordability, the rest of it, all social issues that Republicans don't really do well on in New Jersey, hypothetically.

But nevertheless, look, Democrats have done a very good job with vote by mail.

You only have to look at District three to figure out that they are tremendously advantaged.

That's the third district in South Jersey where they've exceeded the vote by mail that already came in in 2021, which is a gubernatorial year.

So the problem for Republicans, of course, is that Donald Trump has instilled in them that early voting is something taboo and something you should not worry about or think about.

So they better hope they get a good turnout at the polls at next Tuesday, this Tuesday, tomorrow, because I'm not so sure they're going to be able to survive without doing that.

Very, very quickly, Bill, final thought.

Oh, the modeling.

Well, Julie's worried about District three, but the rest of the district staff I'm talking to feel real good about their modeling based on that, the 2021 turnout and vote by mail in early voting numbers, they're feeling pretty good.

Nothing's done here until it's over.

But Republicans feel pretty good about the great effort that they put in on the the vote by mail in early voting so far.

All right.

It ain't over till it's over.

Bill Palatucci, Julie Roginsky, thank you so much.

So much.

Take care.