>> ERIC: AS THE U.S.

WAR WITH IRAN APPROACHES ITS THIRD MONTH, RE-OPENING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND KEEPING MORE THAN A TENOUS CEASEFIRE SEEM OUT OF REACH.

PRESIDENT TRUMP WENT TO CHINA THIS WEEK AND THE IRAN WAR WAS ON THE AGENDA.

BACK HERE IN THE U.S.

GAS PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE, AND THE WAR IS INCREASINGLY UNPOPULAR WITH AMERICANS IN BOTH POLITICAL PARTIES.

UNIVERSITY OF ST.

THOMAS PROFESSOR SHAHERZAD AHMADI IS BACK.

SHE SPECIALIZES IN RECENT POLITICAL HISTORIES OF IRAN AND IRAQ.

WHERE DO WE STAND TONIGHT?

ABOUT THE SAME AS WHEN YOU WERE HERE LAST, A FEW EEKS AGO?

>> THE VISIT THAT TRUMP JUST MADE TO CHINA DID A MADE TO CHINA DID ELUCIDATE SOME ISSUES THAT ARE GOING ON.

I MEAN, THE FIRST THING THAT I THINK IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE IS THAT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS STILL CLOSED.

AND ONE VERY INTERESTING THING THAT HAPPENED ON WEDNESDAY WAS THAT CHINESE TANKERS ARE NOW BEING ALLOWED TO GO THROUGH WITH IRANIAN MANAGEMENT PROTOCOLS, ACCORDING TO IRAN.

SO, ALTHOUGH TRUMP IS SAYING THAT CHINA'S ON BOARD WITH HIS PLAN AND THAT THEY AGREE THAT IRAN SHOULD NOT BE A NUCLEAR THREAT, CHINA SEEMS TO BE REMAINING QUITE VAGUE.

AND IN THEIR READ-OUT OF WHAT THE MEETING WAS ABOUT, THEY ACTUALLY DID NOT REALLY MENTION IRAN.

THEY JUST SAID THAT THEY TALKED ABOUT THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT.

>> Cathy: SO EVIDENTLY, THE PRESIDENT REJECTED WHATEVER OFFER WAS MADE, AND WE HAVE REALLY NOT AN IDEA OF WHAT THAT WAS.

SO I'M WONDERING, WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THIS -- WHAT DOES HISTORY SHOW US ABOUT LARGER COUNTRIES ATTACKING SMALLER ONES AND THE LENGTH OF TIME OF THE CONFLICT?

>> ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS THAT IRAN IS DOING ITS OWN INTERNATIONAL PLAY.

SO WHEN TRUMP WAS MEETING WITH THE CHINESE DIPLOMATS IN CHINA, BRINGING ALONG A LOT OF VERY IMPORTANT TECH CEOs, IRAN WAS IN INDIA MEETING WITH A LOT OF THE BRICKS COUNTRIES.

AND SO THEIR FOCUS WAS, A, THAT AMERICA WAS NOT A GOOD PARTNER IN PEACE, B, THAT PAKISTAN'S MEDIATION WAS QUITE FRAGILE, AND, C, THAT CHINA WAS NOT TURNING ITS BACK ON IRAN.

SO KEEPING IN MIND THAT IRAN IN A WAY IS DOING A VICTORY LAP.

IT'S IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER THAT ALTHOUGH WE ARE GETTING ONE VERSION OF THE NARRATIVE FROM THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION, WE DON'T HAVE THE FULL TORY, AND ONE IMPORTANT THING AS A HISTORIAN TO CONSIDER IS THAT WE DON'T REALLY KNOW HOW THIS IS GOING TO PLAY OUT UNTIL THE DUST SETTLES AND IT CERTAINLY HASN'T SETTLED YET.

>> Eric: THE WINNERS WRITE THE HISTORY IS THE OLD CLICHÉ.

>> TOTALLY.

>> Eric: I'M WONDERING ABOUT THE RIPPLE TO OTHER COUNTRIES.

ISRAEL DID AN AIR STRIKE IN THE GAZA STRIP TODAY, TO GET A HAMAS LEADER.

>> YEAH.

>> Eric: IS THAT ANY WAY CONNECTED OR TOTALLY SEPARATE?

>> SO THE LAST TIME THAT I WAS HERE, WE TALKED ABOUT LEBANON.

AND, SO, ONE THING THAT IRAN IS COMPLETELY COMMITTED TO IS SEEING SOME ALLEVIATION OF THE FIGHTING IN LEBANON.

THEIR WHOLE CONCEPT RIGHT NOW IS UNLESS THE FIGHTING STOPS ELSEWHERE, THE FIGHTING WILL CONTINUE IN IRAN.

IN OTHER WORDS, IF THEY REMAIN WEAK IN THEIR PROXIES, THEN IRAN IS VULNERABLE.

AND, SO, ISRAEL IS DOING ITS PART TO ENSURE THAT IRAN FEELS VULNERABLE.

PROBABLY THE CALCULUS IS THAT WITH VULNERABILITY COMES STRENGTH AT THE NEGOTIATING TABLE, BUT IF IRAN DOESN'T THINK THAT IT HAS A PARTNER AT THE NEGOTIATING TABLE, THEY'RE NOT GOING TO MAKE MUCH MOVEMENT.

>> Cathy: BY THE WAY, YOU HAVE FAMILY IN IRAN.

I'M WONDERING, WHAT HAVE YOU BEEN ABLE TO GLEAN FROM YOUR FAMILY AND FRIENDS IN TERMS OF HOW ARE THEY HOLDING UP, WHAT'S THE ECONOMY LIKE, WHAT'S LIFE LIKE?

>> THE ECONOMY IS TOTALLY N SHAMBLES.

INFLATION RATE HAS RUN AWAY.

ONE VERY NTERESTING THING TO NOTE, MARKO RUBIO, DURING THIS VISIT TO CHINA, WAS ADAMANT THAT THE CHINESE DID NOT NECESSARILY HAVE TO INTERVENE, BUT HE CONCEDED THAT MERICA WAS GETTING AFFECTED BY INFLATION, AMERICA WAS GETTING AFFECTED BY RISING OIL PRICES.

THAT IS VERY IMPORTANT.

IRAN IS CERTAINLY HURT IN THIS AND IT WILL TAKE THEM MANY MANY YEARS TO RECOUP.

BUT THEY ARE LEANING ON THE MONEY THEY MAKE FROM THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ TO RECOUP THAT.

>> Eric: IS THERE A WAY TO DOCUMENT HOW MUCH -- WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THEIR DEFENSE CAPABILITY IS AVAILABLE TO THEM STILL?

>> THAT'S AN EXCELLENT QUESTION.

SO, ONE AREA WHERE THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS CORRECT IS THAT THEIR ARMY HAS BEEN BADLY HURT.

I MEAN, THEIR NAVY IS REALLY BADLY HURT.

THEIR ARMY IS BADLY HURT.

BUT THEY STILL CAN EXERT A LOT OF INFLUENCE OVER ESPECIALLY THE ARAB COUNTRIES, THE ARAB GULF COUNTRIES, BY THESE CHEAP DRONES AND THE MINES THAT THEY'VE PUT IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

SO THEY STILL EXERT A LOT OF POWER, DESPITE THE FACT THAT, NO, MILITARILY THEY COULDN'T POSSIBLY STAND UP TO THE UNITED STATES.

>> Cathy: I ASKED ABOUT THE LENGTH OF TIME FOR CONFLICT.

THE LONGER THIS GOES ON, THE HARDER IT IS, ISN'T IT?

>> SO EVEN IF EVERYTHING NORMALIZED TOMORROW, E WOULD STILL BE EXPERIENCING THE EFFECTS IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.

THERE'S NO QUESTION THAT WE WILL SEE A RISE IN COSTS OF FERTILIZER, OF FOOD, F FUEL, EVERYTHING.

SO THERE'S NO QUESTION ABOUT THAT.

>> Eric: APPRECIATE THE UPDATE.

THANKS FOR COMING OVER.

>> Cathy: ALWAYS