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♪♪ >>> THE FIRST WEEK OF SPRING AND WHILE YOUR THOUGHTS MAY BE WANDERING TOWARDS BASEBALL AND BARBECUES, SHOULD YOU ALSO STILL BE WORRIED ABOUT COVID?

HI, EVERYBODY, I'M DAVID CRUZ.

THIS IS "CHAT BOX," AND LOOK, I'M WITH YOU.

THE METS LOOK GOOD THIS YEAR, AND MY BARBECUE IS READY TO GO.

BUT LURKING BEHIND THOSE HEADLINES FROM THE UKRAINE AND ELSEWHERE IS NEWS OF A NEW OMICRON VARIANT AND NUMBERS WAY BELOW CRISIS LEVEL BUT STILL NOT TRENDING WELL.

LET'S GET SOME INFORMATION ON WHAT'S ACTUALLY GOING ON.

SO WE KNOW HOW TO STAY SAFE THIS SPRING AND SUMMER.

STEPHANIE SILVERA IS AN EPIDEMIOLOGIST AT MONTCLAIR STATE UNIVERSITY AND SARAJ IS CHIEF OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE AT HOLY NAME MEDICAL CENTER IN TEANECK.

DOCTOR, LET ME START WITH YOU.

WHAT IS THE STATE OF THINGS AT HOLY NAME, WHICH HAS BEEN THROUGH IT ALL THESE PAST TWO-PLUS YEARS?

WHAT'S IT LIKE THERE TODAY?

>> THANKS FOR HAVING ME.

YOU KNOW, WE WERE LABELED THE EPICENTER OF THE PANDEMIC, CERTAINLY IN THE EARLY DAYS, AND HAVE SEEN MANY UPSURGES IN THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS.

I WILL TELL YOU, I'M HAPPY TO REPORT THAT WE HAVE VERY FEW COVID-19 PATIENTS ADMITTED AT PRESENT TIME AND OFTENTIMES THE ONES WE'RE SEEING ARE WHAT WE CALL ZINTAL FINDINGS.

SO WE'RE IN A MUCH BETTER PLACE THAN WE WERE JUST BACK IN LATE DECEMBER AND EARLY JANUARY WHEN WE WERE DEALING WITH THE OMICRON SURGE.

I WOULD CAUTION THAT WE'VE BEEN DOWN THIS PATH NUMEROUS TIMES AND AS WE DISCUSSED TODAY, THERE'S A LOT OF ROOM FOR OPTIMISM BUT WE ALSO HAVE TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS AND ALL CONSTANTLY STAY AHEAD OF THE GAME.

>> YEAH.

STEPHANIE, YOU AND I HAVE TALKED SO MANY TIMES OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS, I FEEL LIKE I'VE BEEN IN YOUR KITCHEN, SO I GOT COVID, A VERY MILD CASE, AND THEN I FEEL LIKE I FORGOT ALL ABOUT IT.

I THINK -- I THINK I'M FAIRLY TYPICAL IN THAT REGARD.

SO, CAN YOU JUST UPDATE US, ME, ON WHAT'S HAPPENING OUT THERE THAT HAS RAISED CONCERNS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS?

>> SO, I THINK RIGHT NOW, THE CONCERN THAT WE'RE LOOKING AT IS THIS NEW SUBVARIANT OF OMICRON, THIS BA.2.

THE BIG CONCERN IS THAT IT IS, AS FAR AS WE KNOW, SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 20 -- I MEAN, 30% AND 50% MORE TRANSMISSIBLE.

MA THEENZ PEOPLE WHO ARE SUSCEPTIBLE ARE MORE LIKELY TO GET IT JUST BECAUSE IT'S MORE CONTAGIOUS.

>> EVEN MORE THAN THE OMICRON VARIANT?

>> EVEN MORE THAN THE OMICRON VARIANT, RIGHT.

AND THAT WAS, REMEMBER, MORE TRANSMISSIBLE THAN THE DELTA VARIANT.

SO, IT'S GETTING MORE AND MORE TRANSMISSIBLE.

NOW, WE'RE BALANCING THAT WITH MORE PEOPLE WHO ARE VACCINATED, MORE PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN EXPOSED TO OMICRON, AND THE SPRING, RIGHT?

SO, PEOPLE WHO ARE HOPEFULLY GOING TO GO OUTSIDE FOR THEIR BARBECUES AND NOT GATHERING INDOORS.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE SCALE, WE'VE TAKEN AWAY MASK MANDATES PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE, AND SO I THINK THERE'S A LITTLE BIT OF TENSION IN THE BALANCE OF WHO IS AT RISK AND HOW AT-RISK ARE THEY.

>> DOCTOR, CHANGING PUBLIC BEHAVIOR IS ALSO PART OF IT, RIGHT?

AND ALSO WANING IMMUNITY.

>> A LOT OF FACTORS AT PLAY.

AS DR. SILVERA MENTIONED, WE ARE DEALING WITH SUBLINEAGE, THIS BA.2 OF THE OMICRON, SO INFINITELY MORE TRANSMISSIBLE BUT BY NO MEANS ANY MORE VIRULENT, DOESN'T CAUSE ANY MORE SEVERE DISEASE, NOR DOES IT HAVE ESCAPE CAPABILITIES.

IT'S NOT NECESSARILY ABLE TO ESCAPE OUR VERY EFFECTIVE VACCINES, OUR MONOCLONAL ANTIBODIES, NOR OUR ANTIVIRALS THAT WE HAVE.

SO, LIKE DR. SILVERA MENTIONED, IT IS A BALANCE.

WE'RE HAVING THE WARMER WEATHER, RELAXATION OF MASK MANDATES, EVEN VACCINE MANDATES, AND WE'RE CERTAINLY SEEING A LASTING IMMUNITY FROM PEOPLE, ALMOST 65% OF AMERICANS IT'S ESTIMATED HAVE BEEN INFECTED AT THIS POINT.

NOW WE HAVE TO TEMPER THAT WITH WHAT WE'RE SEEING PROSPECTIVELY, THAT IS, AS WE GO FORWARD.

WILL WE SEE DECREASED LEVELS OF ANTIBODIES FROM EITHER THE VACCINES OR FROM NATURAL IMMUNITY?

THE ANSWER IS PROBABLY, YES.

WILL THAT BE TEMPERED BY T-CELL IMMUNITY, WE DON'T KNOW.

WE ARE CERTAINLY SEEING THE TRANSITION TO THE ENDEMICITY THAT IS PERHAPS THIS VIRUS STICKING AROUND, HAVING A SEASONAL COMPONENT BUT WHAT THAT MAY MEAN DOWN THE ROAD, OR IN TERMS OF OTHER VARIANTS OR VARIANTS OF CONCERN THAT MAY COME AT A LATER DATE, WHICH IS WHY WE HAVE TO REITERATE THE NEED FOR THOSE THAT HAVE NOT BEEN VACCINATED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO.

THAT'S OUR BEST BET AT REALLY CONTAINING THIS VIRUS AND PREVENTING IT FROM REPLICATING AROUND THE WORLD AND EVENTUALLY BY RANDOM CHANCE DEVELOPING ENOUGH MUTATIONS TO BECOME TRANSMISSIBLE DESPITE VACCINES OR, GOD FORBID, BECOME MORE VIRULENT.

>> AS A ADMINISTRATOR OF A HOSPITAL, WHAT HAS YOU CONCERNED?

>> OH, SURE, SO, YOU KNOW, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT GOING FORWARD, UPTICKS.

UPTICKS DON'T NECESSARILY ALWAYS CORRESPOND TO SURGES.

WE'VE SEEN SURGES WITH DELTA, OMICRON, THE WUHAN STRAIN BACK IN EARLY 2020, AND YOU KNOW, I'VE LIVED IT, WE'VE ALL BEEN THROUGH IT.

I KNOW YOU'VE COVERED IT NUMEROUS TIMES.

WE HAVE HAD TO OPEN UP POP-UP ICUs AND POP-UP COVID UNITS IN THE PAST.

THAT HAS NOT BEEN THE ISSUE NOW SO WHAT I WOULD SAY, ALL OF US THAT ARE INVOLVED IN MEDICAL CARE, AND ESPECIALLY THOSE OF US THAT WORK IN HOSPITALS AND ADMINISTRATION, WE'RE CONSTANTLY WANTING TO STAY ABOVE AND BEYOND THOSE AREAS SO WE NEVER HAVE TO RETURN TO AN AREA WHERE WE HAVE TO STOP OTHER ESSENTIAL SERVICES, WHETHER IT'S CANCER SCREENINGS, CARDIOVASCULAR CARE.

WE KNOW A LOT OF THOSE THINGS DID FALL BY THE WAYSIDE EARLY IN THE PANDEMIC WHEN WE HAD TO CLOSE THE HOSPITAL TO MANY ESSENTIAL SERVICES SO THE REAL GOAL HERE IS TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE HIGH-QUALITY CARE THROUGHOUT NEW JERSEY, THROUGHOUT THE UNITED STATES, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME STAYING AHEAD OF ANY POTENTIAL UPTICKS THAT MAY SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME A SURGE.

AND YOU KNOW, US IN THE INFECTIOUS DISEASE COMMUNITY, THAT'S WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO AND DR. SILVERA CAN TALK ABOUT EPIDEMIOLOGICAL SURVEILLANCE, SO WE CAN PREPARE AND KNOW WHAT'S HAPPENING HALFWAY AROUND THE WORLD, IT MAY HAPPEN HERE IN A FEW WEEKS AND WE CAN BE PREPARED.

>> STEPHANIE, I'VE HEARD YOU TALK ABOUT USING COMMON SENSE.

>> YEAH.

WE SHOULD ALL BE USING COMMON SENSE, RIGHT?

I THINK PART OF THIS IS ALSO RECOGNIZING THAT WHILE THIS IS BEING SORT OF MOVING INTO THAT ENDEMIC PHASE, THAT ALSO DOESN'T MEAN THAT IT'S NECESSARILY SAFE FOR EVERYONE.

AND SO I JUST WANT TO SORT OF CHIME IN THAT PART OF MY CONCERN IS THAT AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THIS NORMAL, NORMAL, EVEN PRE-PANDEMIC, WAS NOT GOOD FOR PEOPLE WHO WERE IMMUNOCOMPROMISED OR DISABLED, AND WE STILL HAVE CHILDREN WHO ARE NOT ELIGIBLE TO BE VACCINATED.

SO, ENDEMIC DOESN'T MEAN SAFE.

BUT IT MEANS THAT WE'VE SORT OF REACHED A NORMAL AND CONSISTENT LEVEL.

AND SO I THINK WITH THAT, AND AS DR. SUGAR MENTIONED, WE'RE GOING TO SEE UPTICKS SO IT'S NOT THAT WE'RE GETTING RID OF MASKS FOREVER.

IT'S THAT WE MAY NOT NEED THEM IN AS MANY PLACES RIGHT NOW BUT I THINK WE ALL HAVE TO BE REALLY AWARE OF WHAT OUR LOCAL COMMUNITY LEVELS ARE AND THEN WHAT THOSE RATES ARE, BECAUSE WHILE SOME LOCATIONS OR SOME MUNICIPALITIES MAY HAVE LOWER RATES AND MAYBE THEY DON'T NEED TO MASK AS MUCH, IN OTHER PLACES OR IF YOU'RE TRAVELING TO HIGHER RISK AREAS, YOU MAY NEED TO CONTINUE TO WEAR A MASK IN THOSE ENVIRONMENTS.

>> SHOULD WE ALSO START THINKING AS OTHER COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD HAVE FOR YEARS NOW, OF WHAT WE'RE CALLING COMMON SENSE NOW, SHOULD WE BE THINKING OF THAT AS LIKE A PERMANENT DEFAULT STATE?

SHOULD WE ALL HAVE, FOR INSTANCE, A SUPPLY OF FACE MASKS AT HOME THAT, YOU KNOW, AT CERTAIN TIMES, IF THERE'S AN UPTICK OR WE KNOW WE'RE GOING IN TO SEE A LIVE CONCERT INDOORS, MAYBE WE'RE GOING TO SEE, GOING FORWARD, MORE PEOPLE SEEING MASKS AS KIND OF STANDARD WINTER WEAR?

>> YOU KNOW, I WOULD THINK SO.

THE ANALOGY I HAVE BEEN USING IS AN UMBRELLA.

SO, WE PUT OUR UMBRELLAS AWAY WHEN IT'S NOT RAINING BUT WE DON'T THROW THEM AWAY.

WE DON'T CHEER THAT WE NEVER NEED THEM AGAIN.

WE'RE USING THESE AS A PREVENTIVE MEASURE WHEN WE ARE GETTING DRENCHED BY COVID.

SO, WHEN THE RATES ARE HIGHER, YOU PUT THE MASKS BACK ON.

AND I THINK SPORADIC MASKING, WHICH WE'VE SEEN AROUND THE WORLD, AS THE NORM, IS REALLY WHERE WE SHOULD BE MOVING.

>> HUNDREDS OF PEOPLE WERE AT THIS KID'S PARTY THAT I WENT TO.

NO MASKS.

KIDS TO GRANDPARENTS.

ARE YOU CONCERNED ABOUT THIS BEING A BIT PREMATURE, AND HOW CAN ANYONE REINSTATE A MASK MANDATE AFTER THAT HORSE HAS LEFT THE BARN?

>> THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION.

IT'S HOW EVEN BEFORE THE PANDEMIC, MY CHILD WAS VERY YOUNG, AS AN I.D.

DOC, I WAS ALWAYS VERY HESITANT SOMETIMES AND I WOULD CHASE MY SON WITH THESE MAGIC HAND WASHES JUST BECAUSE OF ALL THE GERMS FLOATING AROUND.

YOU'RE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.

WE HAVE A TEMPER ONE THAT, YES, IN GENERAL, CHILDREN HAVE A MUCH LESS DEGREE OF SEVERITY OF DISEASE AND ARE MUCH LESS AT RISK.

THAT'S NOT ALL CHILDREN.

I WANT TO RE-EMPHASIZE THAT.

BUT THEN THE IDEA OF THEM SUBSEQUENTLY TRANSMITTING TO LOVED ONES, GRANDPARENTS, CAREGIVERS, THOSE THAT ARE IMMUNOCOMPROMISED, IS SOMETHING WE SHOULD NOT DISCOUNT.

THAT'S WHY WE NEED TO SEE THE INCREASED VACCINATION RATES IN ALL COMMUNITIES.

WE KNOW THOSE SIX MONTHS TO UNDER ABLE 5 STILL ARE UNABLE TO BE VACCINATED THAT HOPEFULLY WILL CHANGE WITH MODERNA AND PFIZER NOW ALMOST RACING TO GET ONE OF THEIR VACCINES APPROVED BY THE FDA.

BUT SOME OF THE BEHAVIORS WILL CERTAINLY PERSIST AND I WOULD JUST MAKE A MENTION THAT IF YOU LOOK AT THE EARLY SARS PANDEMIC THAT HIT EAST ASIA IN THE EARLY 2000s, WE SEE SOME OF THOSE BEHAVIORS PERSISTING TODAY.

WE SEE PEOPLE IN AIRPORTS AND MASS TRANSPORTATION, TRAINS, SUBWAYS, THEY'LL STILL UTILIZE MASKS AND I THINK EVERYONE OUT THERE LISTENING SHOULD UNDERSTAND THAT IT IS A PERSONAL CHOICE AND THAT WE SHOULD NOT FAULT PEOPLE THAT CONTINUE TO WEAR MASKS BECAUSE IT IS VERY UNEVEN.

WE HAVE PATIENTS ON CHEMOTHERAPY, ON IMMUNOSUPPRESSIVE DRUGS FOR RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS, SO THESE ARE PATIENTS WHO WOULD UTILIZE PROPHYLACTIC THERAPIES, MONOCLONAL ANTIBODIES, SO THESE ARE PEOPLE THAT MAY FEEL COMFORTABLE STILL WEARING MASKS WHEN THEY GO OUT IN PUBLIC OR CROWDED AREAS AND WE NEED TO MAKE SURE WE DON'T SHAME THESE PEOPLE AND THAT WE UNDERSTAND THAT IT IS BECOMING SOMEWHAT INDIVIDUALISTIC AND YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT YOUR OWN PERSONAL SITUATION.

>> ALSO, STEPHANIE, WITH ABOUT A MINUTE LEFT GO HERE, VACCINATION RATES, BOOSTER RATES, ALL HAVE EITHER STOPPED OR THEY'RE FALLING.

PEOPLE SHOULD KNOW THAT THE BEST WAY TO AVOID COVID IS TO GET VACCINATED.

PEOPLE NEED TO HEAR THAT AGAIN, PARTICULARLY IN COMMUNITIES OF COLOR AND IMMIGRANT COMMUNITIES AND AMONG THE ELDERLY, RIGHT?

>> ABSOLUTELY.

THE BEST WAY TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM BECOMING SEVERELY ILL AND ENDING UP IN A HOSPITAL RIGHT NOW IS TO GET VACCINATED AND THEN TO GET BOOSTED.

WE KNOW THAT THOSE WORK TO REDUCE THE RATE OF BOTH TRANSMISSION AS WELL AS SEVERITY SO THE BEST THING THAT WE CAN DO, ESPECIALLY IF YOU'RE IN ONE OF THOSE HIGHER RISK GROUPS, AND HIGH-RISK MEANING NOT JUST YOUR AGE BUT ALSO YOUR EXPOSURE LEVELS AND YOUR ACCESS TO CARE IN GENERAL.

WE NEED TO MAKE SURE THAT THOSE PEOPLE HAVE ACCESS TO THE VACCINE AND GET VACCINATED.

THEY ARE SAFE AND THEY ARE EFFECTIVE.

>> ALL RIGHT, PANDEMICS DON'T JUST END, OBVIOUSLY.

WE'LL KEEP WATCHING THIS.

STEPHANIE SILVERA, SURAJ SAGGAR, THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME.

COVID IS NOT THE ONLY THING THAT HAS US WORRIED.

A POLE OUT THIS WEEK FROM RUTGERS EAGLETON SAYS MORE THAN HALF OF US, 52%, THINK THE STATE IS HEADED IN THE WRONG DIRECTION COMPARED TO JUST 38% WHO THINK THE BUS IS HEADED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.

WHAT IS THE SOURCE OF OUR ANGST AND WHY ARE WE FEELING THIS WAY?

JOINING US TO ANALYZE THE DATA AND CHECK OUR PERSPECTIVES ARE ASHLEY CONAN, THE DIRECTOR OF THE RUTGERS EAGLETON CENTER FOR PUBLIC INTEREST POLLING AND PETER CHEN, A SENIOR POLICY ANALYST AT NEW JERSEY POLICY PERSPECTIVE.

GOOD TO SEE YOU BOTH AGAIN.

THANKS FOR COMING ON.

ASHLEY, WHOSE FAULT IS THIS?

WHY ARE SO MANY PEOPLE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE DIRECTION OF THE STATE?

IS IT THE ECONOMY, STUPID?

>> YOU KNOW, I THINK FOR NEW JERSEYANS, IT'S ALWAYS TAXES, STUPID, RIGHT, AND THIS IS A LONG-STANDING PROBLEM.

I MEAN, WE SAW MUCH MORE UNITY DECADES UPON DECADES AGO IN TERMS OF NEW JERSEYANS BEING MORE CONTENT ABOUT AN OUTLOOK ON THE STATE, MORE CONTENT ABOUT THEIR QUALITY OF LIFE.

NOW WE'RE A LITTLE LESS OPTIMISTIC NOWADAYS IN EVERY ANGLE OF LIFE AND THIS IS NOT A PROBLEM OF ANY PARTICULAR PERSON OR ADMINISTRATION, NECESSARILY.

THIS IS SOMETHING WE ALWAYS LIVE WITH, NEW JERSEYANS' NUMBER ONE PROBLEM IS TAXES AND THAT BLEEDS THROUGH WHEN THEY RATE THE DIRECTION OF THE STATE.

WE'VE HAD PLENTY OF UPS AND DOWNS IN THE PAST TWO UNPRECEDENTED YEARS, SO THE STATE IS NOT IN THE BEST SHAPE IN TERMS OF NEW JERSEYANS OF WHERE IT COULD BE, ESPECIALLY COMING OUT OF THIS PANDEMIC TO SOME EXTENT.

>> ARE WE ALSO TALKING ABOUT THE "A" WORD?

AFFORDABILITY?

>> YES, WE ARE.

SO, AFFORDABILITY AND TAXES ARE THE THINGS, THE TWO ISSUES THAT NEW JERSEYANS ARE LEAST SATISFIED IN TERMS OF HOW THE GOVERNMENT HAS PERFORMED.

THIS IS NO SURPRISE.

AGAIN, TAXES, AFFORDABILITY, THESE ARE THE NUMBER ONE PROBLEMS IN THE STATE.

IT'S ALL COMES DOWN TO TAXES FOR NEW JERSEYANS.

THAT BLEEDS THROUGH EVERY ISSUE, SO YES, THAT A-WORD IS PRETTY DAMAGING, AND PRETTY LONGSTANDING AND UNDERLYING EVERYTHING.

>> WE'RE GOING TO TALK ABOUT THAT SOME MORE IN A MINUTE.

PETER CHEN, YOU'RE A POLICY ANALYST, BUT CAN I ASK YOU TO INTERPRET WHAT YOU FOUND IN THIS POLL?

>> WELL, LOOK, I THINK, YOU KNOW, WRONG TRACK, RIGHT DIRECTION.

QUESTIONS HAVE BEEN ASKED FOR A LONG TIME, AND IT'S OFTEN HARD TO INTERPRET BECAUSE WE DON'T KNOW WHY SOMEONE THINKS IT'S ON THE WRONG TRACK.

AND WE CAN TRY TO GUESS.

WE CAN READ TEA LEAVES INTO WHAT ISSUES PEOPLE IDENTIFY BUT EVEN THERE, I THINK THERE CAN BE MIXED INTERPRETATIONS.

BUT WHEN IT COMES TO COST OF LIVING AND AFFORDABILITY, I MEAN, THIS IS SOMETHING THAT HAS BEEN AN ISSUE IN NEW JERSEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE AS, YOU KNOW, COST OF LIVING IS QUITE HIGH IN THE STATE.

BUT ONE THING I DO WANT TO FLAG IS THAT, YOU KNOW, THE STATE HAS GROWN OVER THE LAST DECADE, AND DESPITE PEOPLE SAYING, WELL, THEY'RE CONSIDERING MOVING, PEOPLE ARE STAYING, AND THE STATE CONTINUES TO GROW.

SO THERE'S ALSO A QUESTION ABOUT, LIKE, WHAT IS PEOPLE'S ACTUAL BEHAVIOR LOOKING LIKE, AS OPPOSED TO WHAT THEY MIGHT SAY THEIR BEHAVIOR IS?

AND TO THE QUESTION OF TAXES, I THINK THIS HAS COME UP ROUTINELY, THAT PEOPLE ARE DISSATISFIED WITH TAXES.

AND I BET IF YOU POLL PEOPLE NATIONALLY, THEY WILL SAY, THEY DON'T LIKE TAXES.

BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT, DO PEOPLE LIKE THEIR PUBLIC SCHOOLS?

DO PEOPLE LIKE HEALTHCARE?

DO PEOPLE LIKE MUNICIPAL SERVICES?

PEOPLE GENERALLY PREFER AND ENJOY AND ARE SATISFIED WITH ALL THOSE THINGS.

WELL, THE ONE THING PAYS FOR THE OTHER THING.

I THINK WE CAN HAVE A MORE FAIR TAX SYSTEM WHERE THE WEALTHY AND PROFITABLE CORPORATIONS PAY WHAT THEY OWE SO THAT WE CAN HAVE A MORE FAIR TAXATION SYSTEM.

BUT YOU KNOW, THE -- PEOPLE MAY NOT LIKE TAXES, BUT THE REALITY IS, YOU DON'T GET THE BENEFITS OF A GOOD SCHOOL SYSTEM WITHOUT PAYING FOR IT AS A SOCIETY, WHICH IS WHAT TAXES DO.

>> YEAH.

I ALWAYS WONDER WHOSE AFFORDABILITY ARE WE TALK ABOUT, PETER?

I MEAN, THERE'S REAL ESTATE TAXES AND REAL ESTATE VALUES AND CARS AND THE LIKE.

BUT THERE'S A WHOLE OTHER SIDE, RIGHT, OF SKY-HIGH RENTS, STAGNANT WAGES, FOOD COSTS, PUBLIC SERVICES THAT ARE LACKING.

IS THERE A DISCONNECT BETWEEN WHAT ONE SIDE OF JERSEY FEELS IS AFFORDABLE AND THE OTHER SIDE SEES AS AFFORDABLE?

>> ABSOLUTELY.

I THINK THERE'S AN ENORMOUS GAP BETWEEN THE WEALTHY AND PEOPLE WHO HAVE LESS ECONOMIC MEANS IN NEW JERSEY.

WHEN WE THINK ABOUT 1 IN 10 NEW JERSEYANS LIVING IN POVERTY, THAT'S 1 IN 10 NEW JERSEYANS THAT'S LIVING ON LESS THAN $26,000 FOR A FAMILY OF THREE.

I MEAN, THAT'S AN EXTREMELY SMALL AMOUNT OF MONEY, AND THEIR AFFORDABILITY CONCERNS ARE SIMPLY DIFFERENT FROM SOMEBODY WHO MAKES $260,000, WHO MAKES TEN TIMES THAT AMOUNT.

THEY MIGHT FEEL PINCHED.

I HAVE A TODDLER.

I FEEL ECONOMICALLY PINCHED SOMETIMES.

BUT THAT'S VERY DIFFERENT FOR ME AS OPPOSED TO SOMEBODY WHO MAKES A TENTH OF WHAT I MAKE.

>> YEAH.

ASHLEY, THE NUMBERS VARY, TOO, RIGHT?

MILLENNIALS ARE THE LEAST PESSIMISTIC.

DID THAT SURPRISE YOU?

>> YOU KNOW, AS A MILLENNIAL MYSELF, I WOULD SAY, NO.

I THINK WE'RE AN OPTIMISTIC BUNCH, BUT OF COURSE, WE'RE GOING TO SEE DIFFERENCES BY DEMOGRAPHICS, AND I WOULD ALSO SAY PETER MADE AN EXCELLENT POINT ABOUT THERE ARE SOME REAL AMENITIES HERE IN NEW JERSEY THAT ARE UNIQUE TO OUR GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION, NEXT TO TWO OF THE BIGGEST GREATEST CITIES IN THE WORLD AND OF COURSE THIS COMES OUT IN THE RESULTS WHEN WE TALK ABOUT QUALITY OF LIFE AND WHEN WE TALK ABOUT SATISFACTION WITH THINGS LIKE EDUCATION, WITH ENTERTAINMENT AND RECREATION, THE ENVIRONMENT, HEALTHCARE, ALL OF THESE ISSUES ARE RATED VERY HIGHLY BY NEW JERSEYANS AND CONTINUE TO BE SO, IN FACT, A LOT OF THESE RATINGS ARE UP SINCE WHEN WE LAST POLLED THEM BECAUSE THIS IS SIMPLY WHAT WE GET IN EXCHANGE FOR THOSE TAXES THAT BUG US.

AS PETER MENTIONED, WE'RE GOING TO SEE DEMOGRAPHIC DIFFERENCES BY INCOME, EDUCATION, SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS, AGE AND OF COURSE, NO SURPRISE, PARTISANSHIP.

>> AND WHITE RESIDENTS MORE NEGATIVE ON THIS QUESTION THAN BLACK OR LATINO RESIDENTS.

WHAT DOES THAT SAY TO YOU, PETER?

GO AHEAD, ASHLEY.

FINISH THAT, AND THEN I'LL ASK PETER.

>> I WAS GOING TO SAY, WE ALSO SEE, OF COURSE, THAT BLEEDS INTO A LITTLE BIT OF THE PARTISAN ISSUE.

WE KNOW THAT CERTAIN DEMOGRAPHICS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE A DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN THAN OTHERS AND SO THOSE THINGS OFTEN GO HAND-IN-HAND SO I DON'T THINK IT'S A SURPRISE WHERE WE SEE MORE NEGATIVITY AMONG REPUBLICANS, AMONG MALES, AMONG WHITE RESIDENTS, JUST THE OPPOSITE WHEN IT COMES TO BLACK RESIDENTS, HISPANIC RESIDENTS AND DEMOCRATS.

>> WHAT DOES THAT SAY TO YOU, PETER?

>> WELL, I THINK AS NOTED WITH SOME OF THE PARTISAN BREAKDOWN, YOU KNOW, THERE ARE -- IT'S OFTEN HARD TO INTERPRET WHAT THE MOOD OF FOLKS IS, AND THAT'S PART OF WHY, FROM AN NJPP PERSPECTIVE, WE ARE THINKING ABOUT WHERE ARE THE MATERIAL BENEFITS HERE?

AND SO WHEN WE THINK ABOUT WHERE IN NEW JERSEY FOLKS ARE REALLY HURTING, YOU KNOW, IT'S REALLY IN THE LOW AND MODERATE INCOME RANGES WHERE THE FEDERAL AID IS DRYING UP, BUT COSTS ARE HIGH.

AND WHEN WE SEE THE -- WHEN WE LOOK AT THE GAINS FROM THE PANDEMIC, ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION, HIGHER INCOME BRACKETS HAVE DONE BETTER COMING OUT OF THE PANDEMIC, WHEREAS LOWER INCOME BRACKETS HAVE SEEN ALMOST ALL OF THEIR WAGE GROWTH SWALLOWED UP BY INFLATION-RELATED COST INCREASES, AND THOSE INCREASES ARE DISPROPORTIONATELY IN AREAS THAT ARE A BIGGER PART OF LOWER AND MODERATE INCOME FAMILIES' BUDGETS, FOOD, TRANSPORTATION, YOU KNOW, GAS PRICES, AND THIS IS PART OF WHY WHAT WE'RE LOOKING AT IS HOW TO PUT MORE CASH BACK IN THE POCKETS OF THOSE FAMILIES, AND TO MAKE SURE THAT WHEN WE'RE THINKING ABOUT AFFORDABILITY AND WE'RE THINKING ABOUT MAKING THINGS FAIRER IN NEW JERSEY, WE'RE PROVIDING RESOURCES TO THE FAMILIES WHO HAVE THE LEAST AND THEREFORE NEED IT THE MOST.

>> FOR SURE, BUT WOULDN'T THAT THEN -- WHY DOES THAT NOT TRANSLATE INTO THE PEOPLE WHO NEED THE MOST SERVICES BEING MORE PESSIMISTIC?

>> WELL, LIKE ASHLEY WAS SAYING, I THINK THAT PEOPLE'S OVERALL MOOD ABOUT, LET'S SAY, THE DIRECTION OF THE STATE MAY BE MORE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THEIR PARTISANSHIP AND THE PARTISANSHIP OF THE CURRENT LEADERSHIP.

AND WE CAN SEE THAT EVEN IN NATIONAL POLLING ON QUESTIONS LIKE HOW YOU THINK THE ECONOMY IS DOING AND SEEING THE ENTIRE PARTY AFFILIATION FLIP AS SOON AS BIDEN WAS INAUGURATED FROM SUDDENLY REPUBLICANS THINKING THAT THE ECONOMY WAS DOING GANGBUSTERS TO DECIDING THAT IT WAS THE WORST ECONOMY IN HISTORY.

AND VICE VERSA.

SO, I THINK THAT'S PART OF WHY IT'S DIFFICULT TO MAKE POLICY DECISIONS BASED ENTIRELY ON THESE MOOD-BASED FEELINGS, AND INSTEAD, WE SHOULD REALLY BE THINKING ABOUT WHAT PEOPLE NEED THE MOST AND DESIGN POLICY THAT BENEFITS AND PREPARES MOST FOLKS FOR SUCCESS.

>> ASHLEY, THERE'S ANOTHER POLL OUT THIS WEEK FROM YOUR SHOP, NEW JERSEY'S APPROVAL RATING, THAT IS, NEW JERSEY AS A STATE, IS AROUND 58%.

14% SAY IT'S EXCELLENT.

44% SAY IT'S GOOD.

THAT SEEMS TO CONTRADICT YOUR OTHER POLL, DOESN'T IT?

>> SO, WE KNOW THAT PUBLIC OPINION IS ABOUT HUMAN BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN PERCEPTION, SO WE SEE THESE KINDS OF CONTRA DIGNITIES ALL THE TIME, BUT JUST BECAUSE YOU MAY THINK THE STATE IS GOING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION, AGAIN, AS PETER MENTIONED, AS I MENTIONED BEFORE, THIS REALLY BOILS DOWN TO POLITICS, THAT TYPE OF QUESTION.

RATING THE STATE AS AN EXCELLENT OR GOOD PLACE TO LIVE IS A MUCH DIFFERENT QUESTION, TALKING ABOUT YOUR PERSONAL, LIKE, NOT JUST YOUR PROFESSIONAL OR POLITICAL ON THE STATE, AND 6 IN 10 ARE VERY MUCH CONTENT WITH LIFE IN THE GARDEN STATE.

OF COURSE, WE DO SEE THAT THIS IS A DIP WHEN WE LOOK FROM PAST DECADES.

MUCH HIGHER QUALITY OF LIFE RATINGS WHEN WE LOOK BACK TO EVEN THE MID-'90s, EARLY 2000s AND ESPECIALLY THE MID-1980s, BUT NEW JERSEYANS ARE PRETTY HAPPY.

THEY'RE PARTICULARLY HAPPY WHEN IT COMES TO THEIR TOWNS, CITIES, AND NEIGHBORHOODS AS WELL.

70% ARE CONTENT WITH THEIR TOWNS AND CITIES, ANOTHER 75% WITH THEIR NEIGHBORHOODS.

AND SO, YOU KNOW, NEW JERSEYANS SEE THAT THERE ARE BENEFITS AND THAT NEW JERSEY IS A PLACE TO LIVE IS A PRETTY POSITIVE PLACE IN MANY ASPECTS, JUST NOT FOR RETIREMENT.

>> RIGHT.

JUST HAVING EVEN SAID THAT, STILL HALF OF THE PEOPLE IN THAT POLL SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT THEY'D LEAVE THEIR TOWN OR THE STATE IF THEY COULD.

PETER, THERE'S THE HOPEFULLY PERMANENTLY DEBUNKED POLL FROM THAT MOVING COMPANY THAT THEY PUT OUT EVERY YEAR THAT SAYS PEOPLE ARE LEAVING NEW JERSEY IN DROVES.

BUT THE CENSUS SHOWS THE OPPOSITE.

OUR POPULATION ACTUALLY GREW.

I SOMETIMES GET THE SENSE THAT THERE'S AN UNDERLYING BIAS ABOUT JUST WHO IS MOVING IN AND WHO'S MOVING OUT.

MAYBE NOT SO MANY MILLIONAIRES MOVING IN, MORE IMMIGRANTS AND WORKING CLASS PEOPLE?

>> I THINK THAT'S DEFINITELY TRUE.

BUT I WILL ALSO NOTE, NEW JERSEY DOES HAVE MORE MILLIONAIRES NOW THAN IT HAS IN THE PAST.

A BOOMING ECONOMY, IT TURNS OUT, LIFTS ALL BOATS.

AND A LOT OF FEARS ABOUT WEALTHY RESIDENTS LEAVING THE STATE HAS NOT -- HAVE NOT TRANSPIRED.

BUT I DO WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THAT THERE ARE REAL CONCERNS ABOUT COST OF LIVING THAT ARE KEEPING THE STATE FROM GROWING EVEN MORE AND BEING THE ECONOMIC ENGINE IT SHOULD BE AND THOSE COSTS ARE PRIMARILY HOUSING BASED.

NEW JERSEY HAS GROWN ITS HOUSING STOCK OVER THE LAST DECADE AND TWO DECADES, BUT IT'S STILL NOT NECESSARILY KEEPING PACE WITH THE DEMAND FOR HOUSING.

AND YOU KNOW, WE'VE SEEN SOME POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS, INCLUDING THE GOVERNOR'S PROPOSAL TO ACCELERATE THE GROWTH OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING UNITS, BUT STILL, THE NUMBER OF HOUSING UNITS THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW.

WE'RE TALKING IN THE THOUSANDS.

WHEREAS THE STATE AS A WHOLE PROBABLY NEEDS IN THE TENS AND HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF UNITS CONSTRUCTED OVER THE NEXT DECADE.

AND AFFORDABLE UNITS AT THAT.

PART OF THIS IS THAT NEW JERSEY IS PICKING UP THE SLACK FOR A SLOW HOUSING DEVELOPMENT IN NEW YORK CITY AND STATE AS WELL AS IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

BUT PART OF THIS IS ALSO THE REALITY THAT HOUSING STOCK IS AGING, MUCH NEEDS TO BE REPLACED, AND HOUSING COSTS ARE -- KEEP MAKING NEW JERSEY LESS AFFORDABLE AND ESPECIALLY FOR LOW AND MODERATE INCOME HOUSEHOLDS AND PEOPLE WHO WANT TO START FAMILIES AND HAVE CHILDREN.

>> ASHLEY, YOU'VE BEEN DOING THIS FOR A WHILE.

I GOT ABOUT 30 SECONDS.

DO PEOPLE JUST KIND OF LOVE TO HATE THIS PLACE?

I MEAN, DO NEW JERSEY PEOPLE KIND OF LOVE TO HATE THIS PLACE?

>> I'M A JERSEY GIRL SO I'M GOING TO SAY THAT I LOVE TO LOVE IT.

I THINK, YOU KNOW, WE MAY LOVE TO HATE IT BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY, WE ARE SO JERSEY PROUD, AND I THINK THAT EVEN SHINES THROUGH PUBLIC OPINION NUMBERS.

SO IT'S, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE SO MANY UNIQUE AMENITIES AND NEW JERSEYANS RECOGNIZE THAT.

THEY'RE JUST A LITTLE TOUGH.

THEY GIVE SOME NEW JERSEY TOUGH LOVE ON NEW JERSEY SOMETIMES.

>> LET'S HOPE THE STATE'S MOOD IMPROVES AS THE WEATHER GETS WARMER.

ASHLEY CONING, PETER CHEN, HAPPY SPRING, GOOD TO SEE YOU BOTH.

THANKS FOR COMING ON.

THAT'S "CHAT BOX" FOR THIS WEEK.

THANKS TO STEPHANIE SILVERA AND SURAJ SAGGAR.

YOU CAN FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER, @DAVIDCRUZNJ.

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THANKS FOR WATCHING EVERYBODY.

I'M DAVID CRUZ.

FOR THE ENTIRE CREW OVER HERE, HAVE A GREAT WEEK.

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