Hey, babe.

Good news.

I just signed us up for a new retirement plan!

Oh, it's a lottery ticket.

I know.

It's only, like, a one in a million chance, but I've got a good feeling about this one.

Try one in 292 million.

When probabilities get that small, our brains have trouble processing them, but for reference, you're more likely to become an astronaut or be killed in a vending machine accident.

And according to some people, even if you win, you might end up wishing a vending machine had taken you out instead.

[upbeat music] Let's start with the basics.

What is the lottery?

Essentially, it's government-run gambling.

Kings, emperors, and presidents alike realized that people hate taxes but love to gamble, so lotteries were implemented to keep revenue flowing in without causing the peasants to revolt.

For more ancient lottery history, let's check in with Danielle from Origin of Everything.

The earliest known evidence of lottery-style gambling dates back to between 205 and 186 BCE, during the Han dynasty in China.

It was actually in the form of a game, now called Keno, that's still played in some casinos today.

And, similar to modern times, most of the revenue went into funding government projects because the money for expanding and maintaining that big old wall needed to come from somewhere.

Lottery tickets first showed up in the Roman Empire under Julius Caesar's successor, Augustus.

He, too, needed a little extra cash to fix up some infrastructure, but the prizes didn't come in the form of money.

Instead, winners got materials like household items.

And beaucoup payouts similar to what we have today didn't arrive until the 15th century in the Low Countries.

Today, we know that region as the Netherlands, which makes sense, since the word "lottery" actually comes from the Dutch words lot erij.

The word lot actually means fate.

(host 1) Believe it or not, lotteries played a significant role in the establishment of America.

The proceeds from a lottery in 1612 were essential in funding the establishment of Jamestown by the Virginia Company.

And these days, almost every state in the U.S. runs a lottery, and hundreds of other countries continue the practice, so what's the harm?

Surely something that's so widespread can't be that bad, right?

Let's start with the obvious.

For 99.9999999% of people who play, the lottery is a waste of money.

And even though most people know that the statistical odds of winning are horrendous, people continue to play in droves.

In fact, 60% of adults report playing at least once a year.

But unfortunately, the most dedicated players tend to be poor.

Households with incomes of less than $12,400 on average spend 5% of their income on lottery tickets, and this is no accident.

Studies show that lottery ads are specifically targeted to low-income groups.

Which is kind of perverse when you consider that the lottery is essentially a voluntary tax which is falling most heavily on the shoulders of the people who can least afford it, and there are ways that the government could regulate the industry to keep it from being such a raw deal.

In Ireland, they have something called a prize bond, which essentially means players can be entered into a drawing simply by loaning the government a couple bucks which can be refunded on demand.

(host 2) And where is all the revenue from the lottery going, anyway?

It's kind of hard to say because, even though it's essentially a tax, the revenue is not subject to the kind of scrutiny that real taxes are.

Most states have it earmarked for purposes meant to benefit the public good, like education or park land restoration, but there's evidence that suggests the increased revenue just ends up being a shell game.

It's not uncommon for state legislators to cut back funding to the exact programs the lottery was designed to help, most notably education, and just increasing budgets elsewhere.

(host 1) Finally, let's address the core issue.

People aren't playing the lottery because they think they're helping their fellow man, but because they believe the payout will make their lives better.

So does it?

There have been lots of studies done on lottery winners over the last few decades, and sometimes their conclusions conflict.

No, not everyone ends up miserable or buried under cement somewhere.

(host 2) But a large unearned flushes of cash, also known as sudden income shock, can have significantly detrimental effects on physical and mental health.

One study showed that although winners' life satisfaction improved, their overall happiness did not.

In his book "Money for Nothing," Edward Ugel interviewed thousands of lottery winners and said, "You'd be shocked at how many wish they'd never won."

(host 1) This is possibly due to something called the hedonic treadmill theory.

This is an all-too-familiar phenomenon where, as a person makes more money, their expectations and desires rise in tandem, which results in no permanent gain in happiness.

So if you're happy and satisfied in the first place, the lottery won't change that very much.

And if you were unhappy before winning, a massive cash increase can exacerbate your problem.

So is it bad to play the lottery?

Well, yeah.

It's objectively a waste of money that feeds an exploitative system which relies on our collective participation, no matter how small.

But that doesn't mean that dreaming about winning is bad.

As a matter of fact, our lottery fantasies can be really revealing.

What's the first thing you picture when you imagine winning?

Do you fantasize about quitting that job you hate, donating to a certain charity, starting that artisanal ice cream shop you've always dreamed of?

Well, you don't need to win the lottery to get started on those goals.

So the next time you hear about the newest massive payout, pay attention to where your mind goes.

Most likely, those wild and crazy dreams have something totally achievable at their core.

(both) And that's our Two Cents.

(host 2) Special thanks to Danielle Bainbridge from Origin of Everything for contributing to this episode.

If you want more intriguing slices of history, like where the minimum wage came from or why all shopping malls look the same, you can check out Origin of Everything.