- Every man, woman, and child is in this fight for Ukraine.

They are tired, don't get me wrong, and the constant bombardments of the civilian population is exhausting.

But they are committed, they're confident, and they're very courageous, and they're gonna keep on going.

[intriguing music] - Hello, and welcome to GZERO World.

I'm Ian Bremmer.

And a year and a half after Russia's invasion, we are looking at the state of war in Ukraine.

Why hasn't Ukraine's long-awaited counteroffensive been more effective?

Based on my conversations with high-ranking officials, things are going more slowly and less successfully than NATO commanders had hoped and expected.

And although it looks like Ukraine's military has recently launched a major thrust towards the south and the Sea of Azov, the tide of war has yet to meaningfully change.

So, what explains the disappointing results thus far?

Is the West not doing enough to provide Ukrainian support?

And if military resolution to the conflict isn't coming anytime soon, could diplomatic solutions be back on the table?

To discuss all that and more, I'm joined by former U.S.

Ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch.

Don't worry, I've also got your Puppet Regime.

- Will, as usual, I did worse thing that nobody expected.

I didn't see either Barbie or Oppenheimer.

- But first, a word form the folks who help us keep the lights on.

- [Announcer] Funding for GZERO World is provided by our lead sponsor, Prologis.

- [Announcer] Every day, all over the world, Prologis helps businesses of all sizes lower their carbon footprint and scale their supply chains with a portfolio of logistics and real estate and an end-to-end solutions platform, addressing the critical initiatives of global logistics today.

Learn more at prologis.com.

- [Announcer] And by... - [Announcer] Cox Enterprises is proud to support GZERO.

We're working to improve lives in the areas of communications, automotive, clean tech, sustainable agriculture, and more.

Learn more at Cox.career/news.

- [Narrator] Additional funding provided by Jerre and Mary Joy Stead.

And... [light music] [anxious music] - Why is Russia trying to starve the world?

Nearly a year and a half into its invasion of Ukraine, after the massacre of civilians in the Kiev suburb of Bucha, after the indiscriminate shelling of Europe's largest nuclear plant in Zaporizhzhia, and after the torture of countless Ukrainian POWs, Moscow's latest move may be its cruelest so far.

In July, Russia pulled out of a landmark wartime deal, brokered by Turkey and the United Nations, that had allowed for 33 million tons of food to flow from Ukraine to countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.

And soon after announcing their unilateral withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Russian forces engaged in strikes against the Port of Odessa, destroying substantial grain stocks, while also inadvertently damaging the Chinese consulate there.

Russian and Ukrainian grain exports have historically accounted for roughly 30% of global wheat and barley exports, a fifth of all maize, and more than half of all sunflower oil.

And thanks to the agreement, world food prices had declined by roughly 20%.

Having said that, the disruptions aren't as problematic as they were at the beginning of the war.

Now some 50% of Ukrainian agricultural exports go through non-Black Sea routes, over land and by river, compared to only 10% before the war.

And while Russian food exports are constrained by shipping challenges, much is still getting out.

And Russian wheat, actually, has just had a record crop.

The question remains, why is it in Moscow's interest to spike global food prices?

What does it have to gain from exacerbating hunger in the global South?

Many of the African nations likely to be hardest hit, like Ethiopia, have taken pains to remain neutral in the Ukraine War.

But maybe Putin is losing patience.

Russian officials have railed against international restrictions on the country's agricultural goods and fertilizer companies, on Russian ship access to foreign ports, and on being shut out of the global payment system, Swift.

"Enough," Putin is saying, "is enough."

And more urgently, is Putin growing restless with the pace of war in Ukraine?

Russia pulled out of the grain deal soon after its Kerch bridge, which connects Russia and Crimea, was damaged in what they called a terrorist attack.

Ukraine has not officially accepted responsibility, but it's widely understood that Ukrainian water-based drones were responsible.

[bursts of gunfire] And while the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive has yet to yield significant battlefield gains, there is no question that Russia's military is hurting.

Why else would they announce that they're cracking down on draft dodgers and expanding the eligibility of its compulsory military service to, get this, 65?

"So what's a little global starvation," Putin may be thinking, "if it hurts Ukraine too?"

Here now to talk about the state of Ukraine's counteroffensive is a woman who served as U.S.

Ambassador to Ukraine; that is, until she was fired by President Trump.

You remember that whole impeachment thing?

No, no, no, the first one.

Here's my conversation with former Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch.

Marie Yovanovitch, thanks so much for joining us today.

- Thank you for having me.

- There's so much I want to ask you about.

We've been focused on this for, sadly, close to a year and a half now.

You've been back and forth to Ukraine, of course, quite a bit.

Tell me what surprises you most on your latest trips.

- I'm not sure at this point that there are that many surprises, although one of the things that reassures me and maybe does surprise me is how committed and confident the Ukrainians are, not just on the government level, not just the military, but the people of Ukraine.

They are tired, don't get me wrong, and the constant bombardments of the civilian population is exhausting and terrifying.

But they are committed, they're confident, and they're very courageous, and they're gonna keep on going.

I was emailing with one of my former employees, who was a political officer, but it turns out he has all sorts of techy skills.

And so, he is now in the military working in a drone unit, and they had recently been attacked, and he told me that the local population is just all in.

And a little boy came up to him after the attack, and he said, "I've got this spent bullet for you, and you can use it the next time the Russians attack."

And I think that just is indicative of how every man, woman, and child is in this fight for Ukraine.

They will do whatever they need to do, even if it's finding spent bullets for the next fight.

- Yeah.

I want to get to you on things like ammunition, because, of course, that's a big part of the story.

with the counteroffensive.

- Yeah.

- Been going on for almost a couple of months now, very little Ukrainian territory retaken.

Also nowhere close to the full number of troops that the Ukrainians have available to them and trained used in the counteroffensive so far.

Russians don't seem to be falling apart at all, despite what we saw with the Prigozhin, Wagner debacle internally, holding onto the defenses.

Where do you come out?

How do you think the Ukrainians are doing?

How do you expect them to do realistically over the next couple of months?

- The Ukrainians are doing what the British call, they have a catchy little phrase of stretch, starve, and strike in terms of the three steps of the campaign.

And so the stretching part of it is what we're seeing now, which is the probing to find the weak spots in Russian defenses.

The starving part is hitting bridges, hitting munitions dumps, hitting railroad tracks, all of that, so that supplies can't get through to the Russians, and there is some effect going on there.

And the striking part is, once they've made a decision as to where the Russians are weakest, then they will bring in the NATO-trained and equipped troops hopefully to come in and strike the Russians where they are weakest.

I think what we've seen over the last six, seven weeks is the Ukrainians first went in with larger units, and, as we saw, they lost a lot of equipment, and they lost some men as well, sadly.

I think now what they're doing is going in with smaller units, striking quickly, doing as much damage as they can to the Russians, and then pulling back.

So, the strategy is active attrition.

It's not to gain territory at this point.

I think that will come later, when they are ready to strike.

And so we still have a number of months, October, maybe even November, depending on the weather, of active fighting season, and I think that Ukrainians are gonna take advantage of that.

- Now, one of the big challenges has been getting them suitable ammunition to be able to continue that fight.

And the big debate recently has been about cluster munitions.

Most allies do not want those weapons going to the Ukrainians.

The Americans chose to provide them.

What do you think the right decision is here, and why?

- Yeah, I think it was a very difficult decision first of all, because, again, I think the Biden Administration wants to keep the allies together and focused and united.

So, clearly this was a point of difference.

But I think that we're also at a place where the Ukrainians don't have enough ammunition, we don't have enough ammunition to provide.

We, the collective coalition, don't have enough ammunition to provide.

So, what do you do?

And the answer came up: cluster munitions, which is not a great answer, but it is the answer that was found.

I understand that people are critical of this decision, because it's not one I would've wanted to make, myself.

But it's wartime.

Sometimes there's a clear right and a wrong, other times there aren't, and Ukrainians are fighting and dying, and, in my opinion, we need to provide them what we can so that they can prevail.

- How should we think about negotiations?

Right now, it still looks like endless war.

The Russians certainly have shown no inclination...

I understand the easiest way to end the war is the Russians pull out, and that's a great thing to say.

I think everyone would love to see that.

It's not about to happen.

Absent that, how should we think about a negotiations process?

How might we think about a ceasefire process?

- It's just a really good question.

And part of the reason that I'm hesitating is that the facts on the ground, when both sides are ready to actually negotiate and negotiate in good faith, the facts on the ground are gonna determine a lot of that process, whether it's a ceasefire, whether it's something more long-lasting, what the actual border lines would be, and so forth.

I think a lot of people are spending a lot of time thinking about various scenarios, and that's all good, but I think it's hard to definitively say, "This is what it's gonna look like."

And I would also say the Ukrainians have a lot of experience in negotiating with the Russians, and the Russians don't always, as you know, negotiate in good faith.

In fact, more often than not, they don't.

And specifically, in 2014, 2015, with the Minsk agreements, where the international community, France and Germany, really held Ukrainian feet to the fire to stop the blood flow and everything else, and the Russians never...

They signed, but they never did anything that was in that agreement, including honoring the ceasefire.

And so, I think Ukrainians are justifiably concerned that they're going to be caught in that same nightmare again, where there's an agreement where the international community keeps on looking at Ukraine to do its part, but too hard to make Russia do its part, and so we don't pressure the Russians.

And so, how do we get out of that kind of a dynamic?

I think we need to think very carefully about that, because if we get into that kind of dynamic again, I think it's gonna be the same kind of scenario all over again as what we saw before, where Russia regroups, rearms, and re-attacks Ukraine, but maybe other parts of Europe as well.

- So, I guess on that last front, if the G7 is truly committed to providing the kind of training and equipment and intelligence for Ukraine, essentially NATO is fighting this war in Ukraine with the Ukrainians.

They're not providing soldiers directly in the fight, but aside from that, whether it's hitting the Kerch bridge, or whether it's taking out Russian supply chains and the rest, the Americans are leading the way for Ukraine.

If that's the case, as long as we know that's the case, why would we be so concerned about the Russians taking another bite at this apple?

I ask in part because a big part of the reason why the Russians invaded a year ago February is precisely because none of that support existed for Ukraine.

- So there's another question which you haven't asked me, which is what is, what is going on in Russia?

And I don't have a great answer for that either.

- I'll get there.

I'll get there.

That's okay.

- But that, also, obviously, right, plays a part into, what do future negotiations look like?

Because is the opposite member Putin or is it somebody else?

And we've already heard from Zelenskyy that he's not gonna negotiate with Putin.

That may or may not come out to pass.

But I think that will make a huge difference.

And if it's Putin, I think he's got a track record, and he's told us what he what he wants to do, and I think that he's probably still committed to that vision of a greater Russia, the Russian Empire.

He wants that for his place in history.

And I don't think he's given up.

And I don't think he gets good information, even today, in terms of what is going on out there.

And so, if you haven't given up, if you're not getting good intel, you keep on going with your original plan.

I mean, he still believes, I think, that the West is weak, that we will avert our gaze to the next bright and shiny object, and we will forget about Ukraine and Russia, and that's when he's gonna strike again.

I think that's his game plan.

- To talk about the Russians for a second, of course there have been some people talking to the Russians and to this regime.

We saw that the outgoing head of the Council on Foreign Relations, and someone that we've had on this show, certainly, Richard Haass, has led delegations, done some track to diplomacy with the Russians, and also spoke with Foreign Minister Lavrov.

How do you respond?

How do you think about high level, policy-connected Americans engaging with this Russian government at this time?

- Well, I have a lot of respect for all three men.

And I think it's important to note that they are not part of the U.S. government.

They are acting on their own.

- Nope.

- And I think that, while communication with adversaries, whether it's China, whether it's Russia, whether it's another country, is always an important thing, it's also important to make sure you're in sync with your own government when you're doing that, number one.

And number two, in this case, having discussions about Ukraine without Ukraine is not part of what the U.S. government says is its policy.

And I would just say that, if you are not at the table in those kinds of discussions, you're on the menu.

And so the Ukrainian people understand that, and they are quite concerned about what this would mean.

I'm sure they went into this hoping to create a very positive dynamic, and options, and various other things.

I'm not sure that's what's coming out.

- Yeah.

Okay, talking about being on the menu, let's move to Putin's chef, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

[Marie chuckles] You knew I was going there.

So, you did not know he was going to Moscow.

Neither did I.

That was a bit of a surprise.

He now is in Belarus, as best as we can tell, along with a bunch of his troops.

His media company's been shut down, but he still has access to a lot of his cash.

To what extent do you think that all of this, the outcome of that unprecedented move against Putin, is that an opportunity for the West?

Is it a danger for the West?

How does it change the way we think about this conflict and Russia?

- I think that, first of all, we need to understand that, whether it's an American expert talking matter, or frankly even a Russian expert.

Russian sources, I'm reading they're speculating, too, as to what is really going on, and what is Putin's game plan, and so forth.

So I think there's more speculation than hard facts is the first thing.

And the other thing that I would note is it's not done.

There are probably a number of different phases of the Prigozhin rebellion, and we're not at the end of it yet.

I think you're seeing a purge of Russian generals, Russian generals quitting, publicly criticizing, taking a leaf out of Prigozhin's playbook.

I was shocked when the Kremlin put out information that Putin met not only with Prigozhin but a number of his top leaders five days after the rebellion.

I mean, I thought my head was gonna explode.

You know, is this more disinformation?

Was this true?

What was the point?

Where is it going?

I think it's hard to draw final conclusions, but I do think that Putin was weakened by this, and he is now trying to gather up that strength and figure out what his next steps are.

And as with all dictators, it's narrowing your circle, punishing not necessarily the guilty, but punishing the ones you don't trust, and trying to staunch the bleeding.

But I think there's gonna be an effect not only on Wagner and whether it gets split apart or kept together but under tighter Putin control, but also on the Russian military itself, which has already had morale and supply problems, all the problems we all know about, but they are now just going to be exacerbated.

So you started the question by asking whether this was an opportunity for for the West, and I think that, actually, the Biden Administration handled this exactly right by saying this is an internal Russian issue, and you all need to sort that out, and we are not playing any part in this.

The U.S. government has not had a great track record when it comes to kind of picking new governments in foreign countries, and I think we should stay out of it.

- There was one place that the U.S. did seem to play a role, where the Director of the CIA, Bill Burns, gave a speech... a pretty, very interesting speech, where he said this is a unique opportunity for America from an intelligence perspective, this level of internal instability in Russia, and that the Americans were not going to allow it to go to waste.

- It is striking that Prigozhin preceded his actions with a scathing indictment of the Kremlin's mendacious rationale for the invasion of Ukraine and of the Russian military leadership's conduct of the war.

The impact of those words and those actions will play out for some time, a vivid reminder of the corrosive effect of Putin's war on his own society and his own regime.

- A little bravado.

A little putting the Russians on notice.

If you were Director of the CIA, would you have made that statement?

- It's super interesting to me how the intelligence communities now...

In the past, kind of clothed in secrecy, right?

You could never penetrate that veil.

But now they're putting stuff out there.

They're putting intel out about Russia, what Russia's doing.

They're publicly inviting members of the Russian public to come over to the other side.

It's really interesting as a tactic, and it's interesting, I think also, as a way of trolling the Russians.

- For now, the Republican front-runner in the upcoming U.S. elections is Donald Trump, someone who said that he will end this conflict in the first 24 hours.

I assume it's because he's also got other things he has to do in the first day is why it's gonna take so long.

But obviously, a very different perspective.

He's gonna press the Russians hard, he's gonna press the Ukrainians harder, sounds like, to give up land and the rest.

You hear that, and you know, of course, what it was like, the Trump policies towards Russia and Ukraine when you were there.

I am wondering, does this mean that there is a window, a narrow window for the Americans to do everything they can and the diplomacy and military options need to be considered within that window, or you wouldn't paint it that way?

- That's a good question, and I think it depends on your perspective.

So the Ukrainians are looking at this, and they're worried, right?

They're worried that the elections are going to create issues for them, as the 2016 elections created for them.

So, I think the Ukrainians... of course being the country under attack, there's no people that more want peace than the Ukrainians.

But I think politically now, they are very much hoping that the counteroffensive will be effective.

It's not gonna be the last deal.

It's not gonna be a movie kind of an ending here.

But hopefully it will get Ukraine on that trajectory towards victory and the upper hand at the negotiating table.

I think everybody would like to see that, and I'm sure many in Washington would would as well.

We'll have to see.

We'll have to see what happens.

- Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch, thanks for joining us on GZERO World.

- Thank you for having me.

[light electronic music] - And now the Puppet Regime, where the hype surrounding summer blockbusters is continuing and some of our felt little friends are weighing in.

- Welcome back to "Felt on Film", Puppet Regime's new movie review show.

This summer, the only thing hotter than the melting planet was the box offices.

And to talk about it all, we've got a couple fellas who know a thing or two about busting blocks.

Ha!

Mr. Xi, let's start with you.

What did you like?

- Well, I loved that "Barbie", except in our territorial claims to the South China Sea... Of course, she was made in China, so how could she not?

- Ugh!

Way to make it about yourself, Xi!

Jeez!

Always, "Made in China this, made in China that," with you!

- Ha!

Kim Jong-Un, always with an opinion.

What movie did you like- - I went to see "Oppenheimer" in IMAX 70 millimeter with Dennis Rodman, and it was a blast!

[Kim Jong Un laughing] - Huh.

What are your thoughts on the movie?

- Eh, you know, in Oppenheimer I saw a kindred spirit, a visionary, a man who created atomic bombs only to be ostracized by the world.

They did not listen to him!

It is basically a film about me!

- Mm, right.

Vladimir Putin, you are famously a movie buff.

They say spy films made you want to join the KGB as a child.

So, what's your pick of the summer?

- Well as usual, I did worse thing that nobody expected.

I didn't see either "Barbie" or "Oppenheimer".

Instead, I continued my invasion of Ukraine and saw the new "Mission Impossible".

- Whoa, a curve ball!

But why?

- Well, as aging short person who does all of his own stunts and relies on Cold War action tropes, I absolutely adore Tom Cruise.

I adore him!

- And you're both nuts.

Well, that's it for this episode, and you might as well watch it again, and again, and again, 'cause they actors and writers strike isn't gonna end anytime soon.

♪ Puppet regime ♪ - That's our show this week.

Come back next week if you like what you see, or even if you don't but you're hungry, you're hungry for another grain deal!

Check us out at gzeromedia.com.

[upbeat music] [upbeat music continues] [upbeat music continues] [upbeat music continues] [bright electronic music] - [Announcer] Funding for GZERO World is provided by our lead sponsor, Prologis.

- [Announcer] Every day, all over the world, Prologis helps businesses of all sizes lower their carbon footprint and scale their supply chains with a portfolio of logistics and real estate and an end-to-end solutions platform, addressing the critical initiatives of global logistics today.

Learn more at prologis.com.

- [Announcer] And by... - [Announcer] Cox Enterprises is proud to support GZERO.

We're working to improve lives in the areas of communications, automotive, clean tech, sustainable agriculture, and more.

Learn more at Cox.career/news.

- [Announcer] Additional funding provided by Jerre and Mary Joy Stead, and... [light music] [dynamic music]