Welcome back to OTR.

Pollster Richard Czuba is in the queue with bad news for President Biden.

And that's our lead story on the OTR panel this week, Craig Mauger, Clara Hendrickson and Colin Jackson sit sitting with us as we get the inside out.

Off the record production of Off the Record is made possible, in part by Martin Waymire, a full service strategic communications agency, partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and public policy engagement.

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And now this edition of Off the Record with Tim Scubick.

Thank you very much.

Welcome back to Off the Record.

On the eve of the Armageddon, a massive snowstorm supposedly coming in.

We'll see if the weather guys get that right.

Let's try to get this right.

The polling data not looking good for Mr. Biden.

No, that's right, Tim.

It's Joe Biden is losing right now to Donald Trump in a potential head to head match up by eight percentage points.

And out of all this data that the Detroit News and the media have got here, it seems to show that voters are turning specifically specifically on Biden.

They're still willing to support other Democrats, but they have a problem with Joe Biden.

This is ten months before the November election.

Democrats are in a very difficult spot right now.

So what did you make of the numbers?

Well, I think that there is a lot of different reasons why you can suggest why Biden is behind.

You know, people are upset with the economy.

We've seen recently numbers that the economy is doing better, but people aren't necessarily giving Biden credit for that.

The Biden nomics tag that the administration has been trying to use hasn't really been landing with voters.

And on top of that, you have kind of more niche issues that are also chipping away at or potentially chipping away at the president's support within some Democratic voting blocs.

For example, there is a push among Arab Americans to abandon Biden on dealing in relation to his response to the Israel-Hamas conflict.

So you have a lot of different factors weighing off the president right now and A-G-E. Hmm.

Yes, that is an issue.

Even though Trump and Biden are not that far apart in age, they're both on the older side.

It's more of a liability for Biden.

That is very clear in this poll.

In a lot of the polling we've seen this election cycle, even reading this polling, the best way for Biden, it's still a tie between the two in that case, which is bad news for Biden in Michigan, which he probably needs to win in order to secure the White House.

But these bad poll numbers for Biden, let's remember, he's not the only candidate running for office this year.

Every state House seat is up for reelection.

So what impact does it have if the top of the ticket, the Democrat underperforms?

Does it drag Democrats down ballot?

One of the numbers that really jumped out at me was independent voters, which we all know decide elections.

7%.

On a good day, you could get 7%.

Well, let's not over exaggerate here.

I don't know.

I might be around five.

Okay.

Depending on who is but who I'm against.

But, you know, this is Democrats in Michigan are faced with a decision here.

Do they respond to these poll numbers and say, hey, we've got a real problem, we've got to change and do something different?

Or do they ignore these poll numbers and say, oh, that's wrong, the polling is wrong.

I mean, keep in mind, this is what I keep thinking about.

I've been writing at the Detroit News about polls for four, five years now.

I have never written about a poll that had Donald Trump winning that was done by the Glengariff group This is the first time that we have had a poll that had Trump beating someone who was the likely Democratic nominee.

So for people that say, oh, the polls are wrong, that's the record that this poll falls against.

He has overperformed our polls in the past.

These are snapshots in time, I should say.

Things can change.

A lot could change by November.

This is not a prediction of what will happen in November.

This is where things are at right now.

How does Joe Biden get these voters who are frustrated with him, don't want to vote for him back onto his side, and is the only path, as some Democrats seem to be suggesting, to attack Donald Trump.

Will that work?

Can you win a campaign with no message of hope and the future for president?

People want to vote for somebody.

Yeah, not against somebody, right?

Exactly.

I think people are looking for, like you mentioned, voting for somebody, not against somebody.

I think that right now, Democrats in Michigan, especially at the top of the ticket there, to your point that this is a snapshot in time.

They're saying there's a lot of time between now and November.

That's something that House Speaker Joe Tate mentioned this week.

There's something I believe Governor Whitmer had mentioned earlier, speaking to reporters.

So they're hoping that something will turn around that voters, when it really comes when it's really crunch time, when there's not this time to maybe talk about floating another nominee or two, having a competitive primary here.

They're thinking that voters are going to come back behind the president and kind of rally around this message.

And we'll see if that actually pans out.

I mean, this is just really fascinating because in 2022, it was kind of an election about elections.

And in that race, you had all of the Trump endorse candidates lose to the Democratic incumbents and they were folks who fought against the results of the 2020 election.

Now, you have Biden trying to sort of pivot away from an economic message to this message of democracy is on the ballot.

At the same time, Trump has used the criminal charges against him to kind of double down on his false claims that the 2020 election was stolen.

So how are voters going to respond this time to that message that's coming from both of them?

This is one of the numbers that jumped out.

I know in our pollster that we're going to talk to shortly are hard core Democrats are abandoning this guy.

I think if it was 41-46, I mean, you need to have that that your base, like Trump has held onto his base.

You need that to stay put and grow.

Oh, definitely.

And it just shows how different this election is going to be compared to 2020.

In 2020, Democrats are looking for let's put someone up and beat Trump.

And he wasn't necessarily Joe Biden, the candidate that the base of the party was excited about.

There was a lot of excitement about Bernie Sanders.

There is some excitement about other candidates like Elizabeth Warren.

I remember attending rallies in Michigan, even where there are a lot of people excited for these alternative candidates.

But there was some decision made by the by voters within the Democratic primary that Joe Biden is the best candidate for right now to beat Donald Trump.

And a lot of people viewed him as a transition candidate.

He'll serve one term and then we'll have another candidate nominated in 2024.

Now, Joe Biden is running again.

Some Democrats didn't expect that to happen.

And they have to find a way to get people within their base excited, to get independent voters excited and to get some of these Republicans like Clara was talking about, who voted for Gretchen Whitmer in 2022 because they thought she was a better candidate than Tudor Dixon, to think that way about Joe Biden.

It just doesn't seem like the voters are open to this at this moment.

Well, it's not as though the Democrats have the market cornered on bad news.

The Republicans are a has a bunch of their own, don't they?

Sure.

I mean, they're they're already sort of facing the political headwinds of not controlling either chamber of the Michigan legislature right now.

Interestingly, did see a little bit of a Republican effort to win one of the special House elections that's vacant right now.

So, you know, it'll be a tough fight this year for sure.

But Democrats are definitely being held back at the top.

The chair of the Republican Party, that is that is the question.

You know, obviously, we've seen Kristina Karamo, current person or the person that was elected to be chair of the Michigan Republican Party a little bit over a little under a year ago in February, she was a the state committee voted to remove her last weekend, legitimate vote.

She said if you believe her in the party or at least the people that still have the domain name to my MIGOP.org.

But at the same time, the person that ran with her as co-chair, Malinda Pego, she's running as or she's claiming to be interim Republican Party chair.

She has her own website set up and we'll see what happens in the future.

This is probably going to be some of that coming down to the courts.

They're in disarray.

I mean, we can't put it any other way.

Objectively.

The Michigan Republican Party as an organization is in complete disarray.

Anything else is sugarcoating this situation.

Their most diehard members are on completely different pages about how to go forward.

You can you can listen to a video of Kristina Karamo speaking this week and she's talking about what her focus is are to win in 2024 and her two focus on, she said, are talking about election security, something that's been a problem for swing voters with the Republicans in the state.

And number two, a program that's about neighbors volunteering to do things like shovel the driveway for their neighbors.

This is this is the focus that she's laying out to win the election for Republicans in what is a pivotal battleground state.

And it's just you don't know how the party moves forward.

You just don't know.

Can a judge resolved soon to be a judge would say you've got an internal problem.

This is a political problem.

Why are you in front of me right now?

That is a good question.

I mean, this is an internal fight over who controls the party.

What law has been broken?

None yet, I don't think.

I mean, there are internal bylaws that they can ask a judge to determine, hey, who followed these bylaws?

I mean, at some point someone's got to weigh in on this and figure out where the bylaws fall on with this special meeting that occurred last Saturday or not.

The Republican National Committee showing a profile in courage here is not going to weigh in, apparently on who followed the bylaws.

So now this feud just continues.

Does it spill over into a floor fight at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee?

I mean, that's what I'm thinking.

I keep coming back to you on this issue.

Like this whole infighting in the Michigan GOP is not over some ideological split over the direction of the party.

These are all hardcore Trump supporters who got involved largely in Republican Party politics because they have believed Trump's lie that the election was stolen from him.

But the real world political implications of this infighting can make themselves clear this election cycle.

I mean, it's a critical, critical election year.

They have to focus on fundraising and getting out the vote.

How can you do that with an official party apparatus that is in disarray?

All right.

So while the D's in the hours are in turmoil, the U of M is not.

Look at this story.

Okay.

So who is that Michigan State graduate decked out in and blue and a lapel pin to boot.

What do you have Kids at the University of Michigan.

It makes a little easier to root for them.

And when you're the governor, it's good for the state.

Having watched the Wolverines trounce the Huskies last night, Governor Whitmer was all smiles as she attended a briefing on a tax break for seniors, but also on her mind.

Well, something else to celebrate for the entire state and her agenda to attract more folks to this state.

That win last night is going to maybe make some people say, oh, I want to learn a little bit more about Michigan.

Other schools that have won the national championship have seen more alumni donations flow in, more students eager to enroll.

And the governor hopes the business community will take a look at the Wolverine State in the wake of this win.

I know that students make decisions based on what they're seeing and how schools are are promoted.

I know that companies are always looking to see, you know, kind of what synergies there are and thinking about workforce.

And so I think that this is going to have all sorts of benefits for the state.

He could also mean more money for student athletes as they market their name, image and likeness.

And at Texas Christian University, when they were vying for the championship, it reported $1.3 billion in earned mass media nationwide publicity.

You can't buy this kind of publicity, Governor.

Hey, you know, between the Wolverines and the Lions, it's a it's really a fun time to watch football.

You don't usually say that this time of the year.

And while the coach is raking in bonuses after bonuses just for his victory, don't be surprised if some political party asked Mr. Harbaugh to run for office.

They did.

Ask former coach at the U of M Bo Schembechler, and he said, no luck with this coach.

Say.

Hmm.

Interesting question.

Welcome to Sports Center.

All right.

So what did you make of the governor's comments?

So I thought that population growth is something that's been on the governor's mind and really any Michigan governor for the past however long, for a long time, she's had this growing Michigan Together council that came out with the report that came out with this report late, late, late last month.

It's something that a lot of people, I think, weren't surprised really what was in the report.

Michigan needs more infrastructure, means more investment in our young people.

It needs to create cities that young people want to live in.

Now, sports are a big driving factor for a lot of different economies, and I think that there's a lot of opportunity there.

People want to go to a place with thriving cultural scenes.

Sports are a large part of American culture.

I don't necessarily know if it's going to be the one thing that will drive people back to Michigan, but I mean, it doesn't hurt.

I think people who watch college football are pretty familiar with Michigan at this point.

And a lot of people come here because they like the college football culture.

And I go to University of Michigan, but a lot of those graduates don't stay in the state after they get their degrees.

And that's a problem for Michigan's effort to try to attract and retain residents, particularly young people, as Colin mentioned, the governor has had these recommendations about how to grow the population on her desk for about a month now.

I'm expecting we may hear something about some of those recommendations in the state of the state.

Who does she invite to the state of the state?

I have no idea.

But I hope that she lays out some type of policy vision to tackle this population issue because it is a major issue and relying on football teams to say we're going to grow the state is just I mean, that's laughable to me.

I you look at what I said there.

A lot of the meetings that the population commission had and they were laying out how dire this problem is and what has worked for other states.

And I never heard the sports teams mentioned I mean, would you rather have football, a college football championship for Ann Arbor or a train system or some sort of regional that goes from maybe Detroit through Lansing to Grand Rapids?

Why not both?

Well, we'll see.

It was an interesting story.

Let's call in our guest today, Mr. Czuba.

Good morning.

How you doing?

Good morning.

I'm doing great.

Tell the people in Michigan where you are.

You know, Tim, you should never ask a question.

You don't want to know the answer to.

Where have you been all my life?

Let's talk about these Biden numbers.

If you were sitting in the White House, would they say the pollsters got it wrong or what would you say?

what would you say?

Well, you know, the numbers are really bad for Joe Biden.

And here's what I would say in the exact same poll where we are showing these bad numbers for Joe Biden, we are showing Gretchen Whitmer at 60% job approval.

You can't have both You can't have both in the same poll and one be wrong and one be right.

It's like, you know, looking back at 2020 and saying Donald Trump was cheated in Michigan, but all the other Republicans won.

There's there is a disconnect between that argument.

But, you know, we look at these polls over and over through the years to look at what's changed in the numbers.

And what's clear here is, you know, the generic ballot test has not changed from 2020.

It looks similar.

Slight advantage Democrat votes.

We look at Donald Trump's favorable unfavorable.

In 2020, he was down by underwater by 13.

Now it's underwater by ten.

What's changed is how voters view Joe Biden in 2020.

His favorable unfavorable was dead even at 46-46.

Now it's 30 points underwater.

He has a problem across the spectrum right now.

And I think Democrats have got to come to grips with that.

to come to grips with that.

I mean, I think something that I'm looking to you right now is kind of sports metaphors, not to bring too much of the last conversation into this, You know, but we've seen the sports teams, especially in baseball.

I'm thinking where they started at the beginning of the season pretty poorly.

And then they can maybe rally around midsummer and then pull through in the fall.

Is that something where right now, as you say, Joe Biden is kind of President Biden is underwater in a lot of different ways with this polling.

Do you see a path to him coming out of this summer in a stronger position than he is right now?

Well, you know, let's use that sports metaphor and what what has to happen here.

And, you know, I think any coach will tell you, you take a play by play and quarter by quarter.

So the first thing he's got to do is bring back the Democrats.

You know, he his reelect number, which you talked about earlier, which I have to say is at 17% to the lowest I've seen in all my years of polling amongst strong Democrats.

It's at 41- 46.

Someone new this is the base of his party.

You've got to win them back.

And there is a particular problem Joe Biden has with young Democrats, Democrats under 40.

They have essentially abandoned him.

And he's got to figure out a way to win them back.

The second mountain he has to climb here is with independent voters.

And we all know in Michigan, they're the people who make these decisions.

So if Joe Biden wins back all these Democrats, he's got a huge mountain to climb with independents.

And then the third mountain he's going to have to deal with is multiple candidates on the ballot.

Those multiple candidates do not detract from Donald Trump.

He's going to get the number he gets regardless of who's on the ballot.

It's Joe Biden and the Democrats who face splintering.

Based on, you know, particularly, I think, Jill Stein being on the ballot, though, you have to come up.

You have to deal with all three of those mountains.

If you hope to make a comeback here in these numbers.

One thing that stood out to me in this poll and I think I'm remembering this correctly, or something like 58% of voters said that a Trump conviction wouldn't necessarily impact how they vote in the election.

And that cuts against some of the national polling I've seen where a Trump conviction would potentially impact the results.

Can you sort of speak to what your poll found there?

Sure.

We asked if if Donald Trump were convicted of one of these crimes he's charged with.

Would that make you more or less likely to vote for him or would it make no difference?

And you know, that 58% number of it would make no difference.

I want to put that in the context.

That's a lot of people who have made up their minds about Donald Trump for or against him.

So it's not going to make a difference.

We looked specifically at people who said they voted were going to vote for Donald Trump to see how that would play.

12% said it would make them more likely to vote against him.

11% said they weren't sure.

So at its best amongst Trump supporters, you're looking at 23% who would even consider this as an issue that would impact their vote.

Where this might play is with undecided voters, where it's far higher, the percentage who say either they didn't know or it would make them less likely.

But I want to caution, they're not saying they won't vote for Donald Trump.

They're saying they'd be less likely to vote for Donald Trump.

And there's a big difference here.

So where these convictions might play is if the race tightens and it gets close.

That's the first step for Joe Biden, is make the claim, make this race close again by bringing home your base.

Why do you think, Richard, that these numbers are positive at this point for Donald Trump in Michigan, in a state where he just a few years ago tried to overturn the election and cancel out the votes of millions of Michiganians?

You know, I said before, Donald Trump, Trump's going to get the votes he's going to get.

If you were with Donald Trump in 2020, you haven't gone anywhere.

You are still supporting him.

And every version of the ballot test we show has Donald Trump from 42 to 46%.

This is where the numbers are going to come in.

This is what he's going to bring, you know, in 2020.

It was a three point race here in Michigan.

He's going to do well in Michigan simply because he does so well in rural and small town areas, which have a major impact here in Michigan.

And so those voters having abandoned him, that's why he's going to do well.

He's going to have rock solid numbers.

The question is, we never see him getting to 50.

We never see him getting over the top in those numbers.

And that's the, you know, the the bright spot here for the Democrats in the presidential race.

And there aren't many bright spots, but Donald Trump never gets up to that 50% level.

What numbers did you find in the US Senate race?

A dead heat all the way around?

Yeah.

You know, the US Senate race to me looks exactly as you would expect in a rare open US Senate seat in Michigan to look dead even.

There's a whole lot of independent voters who just don't know haven't made up their mind.

And you know, this is going to be a race to the center.

Once they win these nominations, they're going to have to pivot and run to the center.

Typically, I think Elissa Slotkin on the Democratic side, who is a very clear front runner right now on the Democratic side, she is well positioned on issues like abortion.

I think she's run these tough fights before she knows how to move to the center very quickly.

But this time around, she faces the prospect of Joe Biden's numbers above her on the ticket.

And we just don't know what impact that's going to play down the ticket yet.

We just don't know.

On the reverse side, these Republicans, you have three Republicans who clearly are similarly positioned in terms of name I.D.

and that is James Craig Mike Rogers, and Peter Meijer.

You cannot discount that.

Peter Meijer You know, yes, there are a band of Trump voters who really have turned against Peter Meijer, But in the electorate at large, that has not carried over yet.

But I think we would be fools, given the history in Michigan, to think that Donald Trump wasn't going to inject himself into this US Senate race and make whether it's next, next week or a week before the August primary, tell voters who he wants as the nominee for the U.S. Senate on the Republican.

So if one of those Republicans cuddles up to the president, which is fine for the primary, does that hurt them in the general?

Given Joe Biden's numbers right now in Michigan?

No, it does not.

And, you know, I like to say there is no Republican Party in Michigan anymore.

There is a Trump party.

Donald Trump controls the Republican Party of Michigan.

What he says goes and that's happened in the last several elections here.

It will continue to happen.

And, you know, perfect example of this is watching Mike Rogers, who was a pretty vocal critic of Donald Trump over the last four years, endorsed him this week.

And I think that's a sign that if you want any chance in Michigan to be the Republican nominee, you better be supporting Donald Trump.

As you look at these poll numbers.

I'm curious, in thinking back through past Michigan elections, we're known for having voters who kind of cherry pick different races and vote Republican at the top Democrat in the US Senate.

We have not seen that as much in the last few election cycles.

And looking at these poll numbers, I'm curious, has something changed?

Are we to polarized now for that kind of outcome or not?

Well, we certainly are, you know, in our tribal zones, so to speak.

The Republicans will vote for the Republican.

The Democrats will vote for the Democrat.

But I always go back to it's these independents.

It was about 20% of the electorate.

And I feel like I'm blue in the face talking about this sometimes in Michigan.

But it is these independents who are going to make this decision.

And, you know, we've talked about what motivates them.

Well, you know, inflation, you know, the work we've done with the Detroit Chamber on regular polling shows that, you know, voters are really bothered by the cost of groceries right now.

That's lessening.

Now that's starting to wane a bit.

But it is going to play a major factor here in the conversation.

Inflation just doesn't disappear, as we know.

Prices go up, but they don't necessarily go down.

Wages have to keep up with it.

But abortion is going to play a factor in this race.

Also with these independents.

It's not going anywhere.

While Michigan may have decided this in 2022 and its constitution.

It is still a potent national issue and it's going to be an issue here in Michigan.

Yeah.

I'm wondering which you see as more of a drag when we talk about the unpopularity of President Biden versus the dysfunction within the Michigan Republican Party.

How much more of this is a drag on?

Which one is a more of a drag on candidates?

You know, there, Donald, Donald Trump is a drag.

His numbers are not good.

I mean, if we were just looking at Donald Trump, his reelect is 32%.

You know, just to give you some context of how we view the reelect number two in 10 seconds.

If you're under 50, you're in trouble.

If you're under 40, you're in deep trouble.

So Donald Trump's a 32, a not great, but Joe Biden's 16.

So the numbers are relative here.

So this is this is the lesser of two evils.

Well, I you know, I think Joe Biden has a whole lot of work to do to tell voters that he's viable and he's up for the job.

And that's what they've got to start with.

Richard, thank you very much.

Welcome to the off the record family.

Thanks, everybody, for tuning in.

See you.

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